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At least 703 records · Page 39

Effects of Forcing Differences and Initial Conditions on Inter-Model Agreement in the VolMIP Volc-Pinatubo-Full Experiment

This paper provides initial results from a multi-model ensemble analysis based on the volc-pinatubo-full experiment performed within the Model Intercomparison Project on the climatic response to Volcanic forcing (VolMIP) as part of the sixth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6). The volc-pinatubo-full experiment is based on an ensemble of volcanic forcing-only climate simulations with the same volcanic aerosol dataset across the participating models (the 1991–1993 Pinatubo period from the CMIP6-GloSSAC dataset). The simulations are conducted within an idealized experimental design where initial states are sampled consistently across models from the CMIP6-piControl simulation providing unperturbed preindustrial background conditions. The multi-model ensemble includes output from an initial set of six participating Earth system models (CanESM5, GISS-E2.1-G, IPSL-CM6A-LR, MIROC-E2SL, MPI-ESM1.2-LR and UKESM1). The results show overall good agreement between the different models on the global and hemispheric scales concerning the surface climate responses, thus demonstrating the overall effectiveness of VolMIP's experimental design. However, small yet significant inter-model discrepancies are found in radiative fluxes, especially in the tropics, that preliminary analyses link with minor differences in forcing implementation; model physics, notably aerosol–radiation interactions; the simulation and sampling of El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO); and, possibly, the simulation of climate feedbacks operating in the tropics. We discuss the volc-pinatubo-full protocol and highlight the advantages of volcanic forcing experiments defined within a carefully designed protocol with respect to emerging modelling approaches based on large ensemble transient simulations. We identify how the VolMIP strategy could be improved in future phases of the initiative to ensure a cleaner sampling protocol with greater focus on the evolving state of ENSO in the pre-eruption period.

metadata↗

A Flexible Method for Producing F.E.M. Analysis of Bone Using Open-Source Software

This project, performed in support of the NASA GRC Space Academy summer program, sought to develop an open-source workflow methodology that segmented medical image data, created a 3D model from the segmented data, and prepared the model for finite-element analysis. In an initial step, a technological survey evaluated the performance of various existing open-source software that claim to perform these tasks. However, the survey concluded that no single software exhibited the wide array of functionality required for the potential NASA application in the area of bone, muscle and bio fluidic studies. As a result, development of a series of Python scripts provided the bridging mechanism to address the shortcomings of the available open source tools. The implementation of the VTK library provided the most quick and effective means of segmenting regions of interest from the medical images; it allowed for the export of a 3D model by using the marching cubes algorithm to build a surface mesh. To facilitate the development of the model domain from this extracted information required a surface mesh to be processed in the open-source software packages Blender and Gmsh. The Preview program of the FEBio suite proved to be sufficient for volume filling the model with an unstructured mesh and preparing boundaries specifications for finite element analysis. To fully allow FEM modeling, an in house developed Python script allowed assignment of material properties on an element by element basis by performing a weighted interpolation of voxel intensity of the parent medical image correlated to published information of image intensity to material properties, such as ash density. A graphical user interface combined the Python scripts and other software into a user friendly interface. The work using Python scripts provides a potential alternative to expensive commercial software and inadequate, limited open-source freeware programs for the creation of 3D computational models. More work will be needed to validate this approach in creating finite-element models.

gravitational physiology↗

DLES Unreal Simulation Tool (DUST)

NASA’s future Artemis missions to the Moon seek to explore areas around the Lunar South Pole. Though humans have previously set foot on the lunar surface, the proposed region provides unique and challenging environments that require insight and investigation prior to arrival. Several teams throughout the agency are performing this site and mission planning, design, and analysis to support areas like the Human Landing System (HLS), surface mobility, habitation elements, and scientific exploration. The NASA Exploration Systems Simulation (NExSyS) team at Johnson Space Center is developing a graphical environment of the Lunar South Pole region. Lunar terrain information collected from the Lunar Reconnaissance Orbiter (LRO) is compiled and made available through Johnson Space Center’s Digital Lunar Exploration Sites (DLES) data sets. The DLES data is used to build this graphic environment. The process of ingesting and accurately modeling this information in a meaningful way for analysis creates its own challenges such as generating a performant model from the source data and the application of curvature. Additionally, the area around the Lunar South Pole experiences different lighting conditions than those observed from the Apollo missions. The need to use the lunar environmental data products provided by DLES combined with the capability to calculate date specific ephemerides in real-time has given rise to the development of the DLES Unreal Simulation Tool (DUST). DUST incorporates augmented terrain from the DLES product into a desktop application that allows exploration of the Lunar South Pole region and its complex lighting conditions. DUST leverages advanced capabilities in the recently released Unreal Engine 5 renderer by Epic Games such as double precision for positioning of planetary bodies and surface elements, multiple infinite light sources to represent the Sun and eventually Earthshine, high resolution shadow maps for dynamic shadow accuracy, real-time software ray-tracing for multi-surface bounce lighting to render sunlight reflected off surface elements and terrain features, and performance optimized level of detail shifting as the eyepoint changes in a scene. This paper details the DUST application, the technologies of the engine platform that enable scientific and engineering analysis, the unique techniques and processes developed to consume the DLES data sets, and how the tool is being used to support the Artemis program.

Lunar Visualization↗

Sensitivity Analysis of Transient Critical Heat Flux by RIA Under High-Pressure Flow Boiling Conditions in TRTL

A reactivity-initiated accident (RIA) is a design-basis accident under which critical heat flux (CHF) is likely to be exceeded. The operational margin for RIAs is currently determined using steady-state CHF lookup tables, which provide conservative estimates relative to transient CHF phenomena. The Transient Reactor Test Loop (TRTL) facility at Oregon State University is capable of performing out-of-pile rapid heating experiments representative of a RIA at conditions representative of a pressurized water reactor (PWR). Here, to further our understanding of and ability to predict transient CHF under PWR conditions, we performed a sensitivity analysis on a RELAP5-3D model of the TRTL facility coupled to the RAVEN code framework to define a proposed experimental test matrix to be performed at the TRTL facility. We then implemented a flow boiling CHF correlation into RELAP5-3D and performed a secondary sensitivity analysis inspecting the impact of the built-in RELAP5-3D CHF and heat transfer multipliers on both the prediction of CHF and key safety parameters, such as peak cladding temperature and heat flux. The results show that the multiplier with the highest influence toward the prediction of CHF occurrence and the safety parameters is the transient CHF multiplier. Operational performance envelopes have been developed for each of the test matrix cases and will be used for validation once the experiments are performed. The TRTL facility is currently performing shakedown testing to verify system performance prior to proceeding with the experimental campaign. Restart testing results include pump curve restart testing, pressure tests, and heater rod thermocouple transients.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

Fundamentals of Cryogenics

Analysis of the extreme conditions that are encountered in cryogenic systems requires the most effort out of analysts and engineers. Due to the costs and complexity associated with the extremely cold temperatures involved, testing is sometimes minimized and extra analysis is often relied upon. This short course is designed as an introduction to cryogenic engineering and analysis, and it is intended to introduce the basic concepts related to cryogenic analysis and testing as well as help the analyst understand the impacts of various requests on a test facility. Discussion will revolve around operational functions often found in cryogenic systems, hardware for both tests and facilities, and what design or modelling tools are available for performing the analysis. Emphasis will be placed on what scenarios to use what hardware or the analysis tools to get the desired results. The class will provide a review of first principles, engineering practices, and those relations directly applicable to this subject including such topics as cryogenic fluids, thermodynamics and heat transfer, material properties at low temperature, insulation, cryogenic equipment, instrumentation, refrigeration, testing of cryogenic systems, cryogenics safety and typical thermal and fluid analysis used by the engineer. The class will provide references for further learning on various topics in cryogenics for those who want to dive deeper into the subject or have encountered specific problems.

Testing↗

Implementing Badhwar-O'Neill Galactic Cosmic Ray Model for the Analysis of Space Radiation Exposure

For the analysis of radiation risks to astronauts and planning exploratory space missions, accurate energy spectrum of galactic cosmic radiation (GCR) is necessary. Characterization of the ionizing radiation environment is challenging because the interplanetary plasma and radiation fields are modulated by solar disturbances and the radiation doses received by astronauts in interplanetary space are likewise influenced. A model of the Badhwar‐O'Neill 2011 (BO11) GCR environment, which is represented by GCR deceleration potential theta, has been derived by utilizing all of the GCR measurements from balloons, satellites, and the newer NASA Advanced Composition Explorer (ACE). In the BO11 model, the solar modulation level is derived from the mean international sunspot numbers with time‐delay, which has been calibrated with actual flight instrument measurements to produce better GCR flux data fit during solar minima. GCR fluxes provided by the BO11 model were compared with various spacecraft measurements at 1 AU, and further comparisons were made for the tissue equivalent proportional counters measurements at low Earth orbits using the high‐charge and energy transport (HZETRN) code and various GCR models. For the comparison of the absorbed dose and dose equivalent calculations with the measurements by Radiation Assessment Detector (RAD) at Gale crater on Mars, the intensities and energies of GCR entering the heliosphere were calculated by using the BO11 model, which accounts for time‐dependent attenuation of the local interstellar spectrum of each element. The BO11 model, which has emphasized for the last 24 solar minima, showed in relatively good agreement with the RAD data for the first 200 sols, but it was resulted in to be less well during near the solar maximum of solar cycle 24 due to subtleties in the changing heliospheric conditions. By performing the error analysis of the BO11 model and the optimization in reducing overall uncertainty, the resultant BO13 model corrects the fit at solar maxima as well as being accurate at solar minima. The BO13 model is implemented to the NASA Space Cancer Risk model for the assessment of radiation risks. Overall cumulative probability distribution of solar modulation parameters represents the percentile rank of the average interplanetary GCR environment, and the probabilistic radiation risks can be assessed for various levels of GCR environment to support mission design and operational planning for future manned space exploration missions.

Kim, Myung-Hee Y.↗

Simulation Framework to Estimate the Performance of CO2 and O2 Sensing from Space and Airborne Platforms for the ASCENDS Mission Requirements Analysis

The Active Sensing of CO2 Emissions over Nights Days and Seasons (ASCENDS) mission recommended by the NRC Decadal Survey has a desired accuracy of 0.3% in carbon dioxide mixing ratio (XCO2) retrievals requiring careful selection and optimization of the instrument parameters. NASA Langley Research Center (LaRC) is investigating 1.57 micron carbon dioxide as well as the 1.26-1.27 micron oxygen bands for our proposed ASCENDS mission requirements investigation. Simulation studies are underway for these bands to select optimum instrument parameters. The simulations are based on a multi-wavelength lidar modeling framework being developed at NASA LaRC to predict the performance of CO2 and O2 sensing from space and airborne platforms. The modeling framework consists of a lidar simulation module and a line-by-line calculation component with interchangeable lineshape routines to test the performance of alternative lineshape models in the simulations. As an option the line-by-line radiative transfer model (LBLRTM) program may also be used for line-by-line calculations. The modeling framework is being used to perform error analysis, establish optimum measurement wavelengths as well as to identify the best lineshape models to be used in CO2 and O2 retrievals. Several additional programs for HITRAN database management and related simulations are planned to be included in the framework. The description of the modeling framework with selected results of the simulation studies for CO2 and O2 sensing is presented in this paper.

Plitau, Denis↗

Efficient mapping between void shapes and stress fields using Deep Convolutional Neural Networks with sparse data

Establishing fast and accurate structure-to-property relationships is an important component in the design and discovery of advanced materials. Physics-based simulation models like the finite element method (FEM) are often used to predict deformation, stress, and strain fields as a function of material microstructure in material and structural systems. Such models may be computationally expensive and time intensive if the underlying physics of the system is complex. This limits their application to solve inverse design problems and identify structures that maximize performance. In such scenarios, surrogate models are employed to make the forward mapping computationally efficient to evaluate. However, the high dimensionality of the input microstructure and the output field of interest often renders such surrogate models inefficient, especially when dealing with sparse data. Deep convolutional neural network (CNN) based surrogate models have shown great promise in handling such high-dimensional problems. In this paper, a single ellipsoidal void structure under a uniaxial tensile load represented by a linear elastic, high-dimensional and expensive-to-query, FEM model. We consider two deep CNN architectures, a modified convolutional autoencoder framework with a fully connected bottleneck and a UNet CNN, and compare their accuracy in predicting the von Mises stress field for any given input void shape in the FEM model. Additionally, a sensitivity analysis study is performed using the two approaches, where the variation in the prediction accuracy on unseen test data is studied through numerical experiments by varying the number of training samples from 20 to 100.

surrogate modeling; convolutional neural networks;↗

Renormalized site density functional theory for models of ion hydration

Development of accurate statistical mechanics models of molecular liquid systems is a problem of great practical and fundamental importance. Site-density functional theory (SDFT) is one of the promising directions in this area, but its success hinges upon the ability to efficiently reconcile co-existence of two distinct intra- and inter-molecular interaction regimes in a molecular liquid. Renormalized formulation of site-density functional theory (RSDFT), that we have recently developed, resolves this problem by introducing an additional potential field variable that decouples two interaction scales and maps the molecular liquid problem onto the effective simple liquid mixture. This work provides a critical assessment of RSDFT for the hydrated ion system - a problem, which historically has always been one of the most difficult cases for SDFT applications. Using two-site model of water, we perform a comprehensive analysis of hydrated alkali metal and halogen ions, including both structural and free energy based characteristics. The results indicate that RSDFT provides a significant improvement over conventional 3D-RISM implementations, and may prove useful in coarse grained simulations based on two-site solvent models.

Chuev, Gennady N.↗

Analysis of Compressibility Effects and Nonlinear Property Variations in a Supercritical CO2 Mixing Layer

Calculations are performed using the large eddy simulation technique to qualitatively assess the effects of fluid compressibility and thermodynamic nonlinearities on the dynamics of a supercritical flow field. Resulting data are also used to interrogate instantaneous subfilter-scale fields, as modeled by the mixed-dynamic Smagorinsky closure and gradient diffusion model. A three-dimensional wall-resolved calculation of a spatially evolving mixing layer composed solely of carbon dioxide is performed. This is followed by a coarse grid calculation to examine model performance as a function of resolution. Theoretical analysis indicates that the partial derivatives of density with respect to pressure and temperature are important modulators of the temperature and pressure field evolution, respectively. Results pertaining to subfilter velocity-velocity and velocity-temperature fields indicate that the models are most stressed in the regions where compressibility and thermo-fluid nonlinearities dominate the physics.

42 ENGINEERING↗

NRC Multiphysics Analysis Capability Deployment (FY2021 - Part 2)

This report details the progress and activities of Idaho National Laboratory (INL) on the Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) project “Development and Modeling Support for Advanced Non-Light Water Reactors.” Task 4b was completed for this report. INL developed a sample problem showing how to use Serpent 2 to calculate macroscopic cross sections for use in Griffin for a typical sodium fast reactor Unprotected Loss of Flow (ULOF) transient. The complicating factor is the relatively large axial gradient of the coolant (and hence fuel) temperature and its evolution during the transient. A 3D Griffin model of the Advanced Burner Test Reactor (ABTR) is coupled to the System Analysis Module (SAM) to perform the ULOF transient. The model includes various explicit feedback mechanisms for fast reactors, including Doppler, radial expansion from the displacement of the support plate, and axial expansion from the displacement of the fuel pins. The results for the ULOF transient are consistent with published values. We observed small effects in the transient results that arise from the superhomogenization equivalence correction of uniform and nonuniform temperature data sets, but they diminish as more dominant reactivity mechanisms are added to the model. Potential improvements to the neutronics model include: adding the differential control rod and sodium feedback mechanisms, implementing cross section re-homogenization based on the partial volume of the various materials, and enhancing the kinetics parameters. Furthermore, the fluids model only includes four subchannels to represent the entire active core due to performance limitations in SAM when attempting to model one subchannel per assembly.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

Extensions and applications of a second-order landsurface parameterization

Extensions and applications of a second order land surface parameterization, proposed by Andreou and Eagleson are developed. Procedures for evaluating the near surface storage depth used in one cell land surface parameterizations are suggested and tested by using the model. Sensitivity analysis to the key soil parameters is performed. A case study involving comparison with an "exact" numerical model and another simplified parameterization, under very dry climatic conditions and for two different soil types, is also incorporated.

Andreou, S. A.↗

Model Adaptation for Prognostics in a Particle Filtering Framework

One of the key motivating factors for using particle filters for prognostics is the ability to include model parameters as part of the state vector to be estimated. This performs model adaptation in conjunction with state tracking, and thus, produces a tuned model that can used for long term predictions. This feature of particle filters works in most part due to the fact that they are not subject to the "curse of dimensionality", i.e. the exponential growth of computational complexity with state dimension. However, in practice, this property holds for "well-designed" particle filters only as dimensionality increases. This paper explores the notion of wellness of design in the context of predicting remaining useful life for individual discharge cycles of Li-ion batteries. Prognostic metrics are used to analyze the tradeoff between different model designs and prediction performance. Results demonstrate how sensitivity analysis may be used to arrive at a well-designed prognostic model that can take advantage of the model adaptation properties of a particle filter.

Saha, Bhaskar↗

Leveraging large language models to automate the identification of healthcare access barriers for veterans

Objective: To develop and evaluate an automated system for identifying healthcare barriers focusing on transportation issues in veterans’ clinical notes using large language models (LLMs) and to assess the impact of different prompting strategies on classification performance and explanation consistency. Methods: We developed a hybrid system combining pattern matching for templated notes with LLM analysis for free-text notes. Using 2000 manually annotated clinical notes, we compared four prompting strategies (dual-role short, dual-role long, analysis-first, analysis-only) across Mistral-7B and Llama-3.1 models. We evaluated classification performance using standard metrics and assessed explanation consistency through embedding similarity analysis. Results: The analysis-first strategy achieved superior performance, with Mistral-7B reaching an F1 score of 0.914, outperforming traditional machine learning approaches (GBM: 0.786, BERT: 0.811). LLMs demonstrated higher explanation consistency within models (mean cosine similarity 0.887–0.908) compared to cross-model similarities (0.767–0.872). Pattern matching successfully handled 6.7% of templated notes deterministically. Mistral-7B showed greater internal consistency but higher abstention rates compared to Llama-3.1. Conclusion: Requiring LLMs to analyze evidence before classification improves both accuracy and explanation consistency for identifying transportation barriers in clinical notes. This approach enables automated barrier detection at scale while providing clinically relevant explanations, supporting both population-level healthcare planning and individual patient care decisions.

Healthcare access barriers↗

Knowledge-informed deep learning for hydrological model calibration: an application to Coal Creek Watershed in Colorado

Abstract. Deep learning (DL)-assisted inverse mapping has shown promise in hydrological model calibration by directly estimating parameters from observations. However, the increasing computational demand for running the state-of-the-art hydrological model limits sufficient ensemble runs for its calibration. In this work, we present a novel knowledge-informed deep learning method that can efficiently conduct the calibration using a few hundred realizations. The method involves two steps. First, we determine decisive model parameters from a complete parameter set based on the mutual information (MI) between model responses and each parameter computed by a limited number of realizations (∼50). Second, we perform more ensemble runs (e.g., several hundred) to generate the training sets for the inverse mapping, which selects informative model responses for estimating each parameter using MI-based parameter sensitivity. We applied this new DL-based method to calibrate a process-based integrated hydrological model, the Advanced Terrestrial Simulator (ATS), at Coal Creek Watershed, CO. The calibration is performed against observed stream discharge (Q) and remotely sensed evapotranspiration (ET) from the water year 2017 to 2019. Preliminary MI analysis on 50 realizations resulted in a down-selection of 7 out of 14 ATS model parameters. Then, we performed a complete MI analysis on 396 realizations and constructed the inverse mapping from informative responses to each of the selected parameters using a deep neural network. Compared with calibration using observations covering all time steps, the new inverse mapping improves parameter estimations, thus enhancing the performance of ATS forward model runs. The Nash–Sutcliffe efficiency (NSE) of streamflow predictions increases from 0.53 to 0.8 when calibrating against Q alone. Using ET observations, on the other hand, does not show much improvement on the performance of ATS modeling mainly due to both the uncertainty of the remotely sensed product and the insufficient coverage of the model ET ensemble in capturing the observation. By using observed Q only, we further performed a multiyear analysis and show that Q is best simulated (NSE > 0.8) by including in the calibration the dry-year flow dynamics that show more sensitivity to subsurface characteristics than the other wet years. Moreover, when continuing the forward runs till the end of 2021, the calibrated models show similar simulation performances during this evaluation period as the calibration period, demonstrating the ability of the estimated parameters in capturing climate sensitivity. Our success highlights the importance of leveraging data-driven knowledge in DL-assisted hydrological model calibration.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Comparing the OpenSolar Remote Shading Analysis Tool to On-Site Shading Measurements

OpenSolar is a free of charge application built for solar installers that creates a fully articulated 3D model of the site and performs remote shading analysis, in order to produce highly accurate designs and interactive, customizable proposals. Under the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) Commercialization Assistance Program (NCAP), NREL independently verified the accuracy of OpenSolar's remote analysis of solar access percentage values (SAVs) on an annual basis for locations in Los Angeles, CA, and Denver, CO. In aggregate, the results of the analysis show that Open Solar-calculated annual SAV measurements were statistically equivalent within ±2.63 SAVs for Los Angeles locations and ±2.69 SAVs for Denver locations compared to those of on-site measurements made with SunEye devices.

MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING,SOLAR ENERGY↗

ISO Key Project: Exploring the Full Range of Quasar/Agn Properties

While most of the work on this program has been completed, as previously reported, the portion of the program dealing with the subtopic of ISO LWS data analysis and reduction for the LWS Extragalactic Science Team and its leader, Dr. Howard Smith, is still active. This program in fact continues to generate results, and newly available computer modeling has extended the value of the datasets. As a result the team requests a one-year no-cost extension to this program, through 31 December 2004. The essence of the proposal is to perform ISO spectroscopic studies, including data analysis and modeling, of star-formation regions using an ensemble of archival space-based data from the Infrared Space Observatory's Long Wavelength Spectrometer and Short Wavelength Spectrometer, but including as well some other spectroscopic databases. Four kinds of regions are considered in the studies: (1) disks around more evolved objects; (2) young, low or high mass pre-main sequence stars in star-formation regions; (3) star formation in external, bright IR galaxies; and (4) the galactic center. One prime focus of the program is the OH lines in the far infrared. The program has the following goals: 1) Refine the data analysis of ISO observations to obtain deeper and better SNR results on selected sources. The ISO data itself underwent 'pipeline 10' reductions in early 2001, and additional 'hands-on data reduction packages' were supplied by the ISO teams in 2001. The Fabry-Perot database is particularly sensitive to noise and slight calibration errors; 2) Model the atomic and molecular line shapes, in particular the OH lines, using revised Monte-Carlo techniques developed by the SWAS team at the Center for Astrophysics; 3) Attend scientific meetings and workshops; 4) Perform E&PO activities related to infrared astrophysics and/or spectroscopy.

Wilkes, Belinda↗