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Application of an Online-Coupled Regional Climate Model, WRF-CAM5, over East Asia for Examination of Ice Nucleation Schemes: Part II. Sensitivity to Heterogeneous Ice Nucleation Parameterizations and Dust Emissions

Aerosol particles can affect cloud microphysical properties by serving as ice nuclei (IN). Large uncertainties exist in the ice nucleation parameterizations (INPs) used in current climate models. In this Part II paper, to examine the sensitivity of the model predictions to different heterogeneous INPs, WRF-CAM5 simulation using the INP of Niemand et al. (N12) [1] is conducted over East Asia for two full years, 2006 and 2011, and compared with simulation using the INP of Meyers et al. (M92) [2], which is the original INP used in CAM5. M92 calculates the nucleated ice particle concentration as a function of ice supersaturation, while N12 represents the nucleated ice particle concentration as a function of temperature and the number concentrations and surface areas of dust particles. Compared to M92, the WRF-CAM5 simulation with N12 produces significantly higher nucleated ice crystal number concentrations (ICNCs) in the northern domain where dust sources are located, leading to significantly higher cloud ice number and mass concentrations and ice water path, but the opposite is true in the southern domain where temperatures and moistures play a more important role in ice formation. Overall, the simulation with N12 gives lower downward shortwave radiation but higher downward longwave radiation, cloud liquid water path, cloud droplet number concentrations, and cloud optical depth. The increase in cloud optical depth and the decrease in downward solar flux result in a stronger shortwave and longwave cloud forcing, and decreases temperature at 2-m and precipitation. Changes in temperature and radiation lower surface concentrations of OH, O3, SO42−, and PM2.5, but increase surface concentrations of CO, NO2, and SO2 over most of the domain. By acting as cloud condensation nuclei (CCN) and IN, dust particles have different impacts on cloud water and ice number concentrations, radiation, and temperature at 2-m and precipitation depending on whether the dominant role of dust is CCN or IN. These results indicate the importance of the heterogeneous ice nucleation treatments and dust emissions in accurately simulating regional climate and air quality.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

A Public-Private-Acadmic Partnership to Advance Solar Power Forecasting

The National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) is pleased to have led a partnership to advance the state-of-the-science of solar power forecasting by designing, developing, building, deploying, testing, and assessing the SunCast™ Solar Power Forecasting System. The project has included cutting edge research, testing in several geographically- and climatologically-diverse high penetration solar utilities and Independent System Operators (ISOs), and wide dissemination of the research results to raise the bar on solar power forecasting technology. The partners include three other national laboratories, six universities, and industry partners. This public-private-academic team has worked in concert to perform use-inspired research to advance solar power forecasting through cutting-edge research to advance both the necessary forecasting technologies and the metrics for evaluating them. The project has culminated in a year-long, full-scale demonstration of provide irradiance and power forecasts to utilities and ISOs to use in their operations. The project focused on providing elements of a value chain, beginning with the weather that causes a deviation from clear sky irradiance and progresses through monitoring and observations, modeling, forecasting, dissemination and communication of the forecasts, interpretation of the forecast, and through decision-making, which produces outcomes that have an economic value. The system has been evaluated using metrics developed specifically for this project, which has provided rich information on model and system performance. Research was accomplished on the very short range (0-6 hours) Nowcasting system as well as on the longer term (6-72 hour) forecasting system. The shortest range forecasts are based on observations in the field. The shortest range system, built by Brookhaven National Laboratory (BNL) and based on Total Sky Imagers (TSIs) is TSICast, which operates on the shortest time scale with a latency of only a few minutes and forecasts that currently go out to about 15 min. This project has facilitated research in improving the hardware and software so that the new high definition cameras deployed at multiple nearby locations allow discernment of the clouds at varying levels and advection according to the winds observed at those levels. Improvements over “smart persistence” are about 29% for even these very short forecasts. StatCast is based on pyranometer data measured at the site as well as concurrent meteorological observations and forecasts. StatCast is based on regime-dependent artificial intelligence forecasting techniques and has been shown to improve on “smart persistence” forecasts by 15-50%. A second category of short-range forecasting systems employ satellite imagery and use that information to discern clouds and their motion, allowing them to project the clouds, and the resulting blockage of irradiance, in time. CIRACast (the system produced by the Cooperative Institute for Atmospheric Research [CIRA] at Colorado State University) was already one of the more advanced cloud motion systems, which is the reason that team was brought to this project. During the project timeframe, the CIRA team was able to advance cloud shadowing, parallax removal, and implementation of better advecting winds at different altitudes. CIRACast shows generally a 25-40% improvement over Smart Persistence between sunrise and approximately 1600 UTC (Coordinated Universal Time) . A second satellite-based system, MADCast (Multi-sensor Advective Diffusive foreCast system), assimilates data from multiple satellite imagers and profilers to assimilate a fully three-dimensional picture of the cloud into the dynamic core of WRF. During 2015, MADCast (provided at least 70% improvement over Smart Persistence, with most of that skill being derived during partly cloudy conditions. That allows advection of the clouds via the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model dynamics directly. After WRF-Solar™ showed initial success, it was also deployed in nowcasting mode with coarser runs out to 6 hours made hourly. It provided improvements on the order of 50-60% over Smart Persistence for forecasts up to 1600 UTC. The advantages of WRF-Solar-Nowcasting and MADCast were then blended to develop the new MAD-WRF model that incorporates the most important features of each of those models, both assimilating satellite cloud fields and using WRF-So far physics to develop and dissipate clouds. MAE improvements for MAD-WRF for forecasts from 3-6 hours are improved over WRF-Solar-Now by 20%. While all the Nowcasting system components by themselves provide improvement over Smart Persistence, the largest benefit is derived when they are smartly blended together by the Nowcasting Integrator to produce an integrated forecast. The development of WRF-Solar™ under this project has provided the first numerical weather prediction (NWP) model specifically designed to meet the needs of irradiance forecasting. The first augmentation improved the solar tracking algorithm to account for deviations associated with the eccentricity of the Earth’s orbit and the obliquity of the Earth. Second, WRF-Solar™ added the direct normal irradiance (DNI) and diffuse (DIF) components from the radiation parameterization to the model output. Third, efficient parameterizations were implemented to either interpolate the irradiance in between calls to the expensive radiative transfer parameterization, or to use a fast radiative transfer code that avoids computing three-dimensional heating rates but provides the surface irradiance. Fourth, a new parameterization was developed to improve the representation of absorption and scattering of radiation by aerosols (aerosol direct effect). A fifth advance is that the aerosols now interact with the cloud microphysics, altering the cloud evolution and radiative properties, an effect that has been traditionally only implemented in atmospheric computationally costly chemistry models. A sixth development accounts for the feedbacks that sub-grid scale clouds produce in shortwave irradiance as implemented in a shallow cumulus parameterization Finally, WRF-Solar™ also allows assimilation of infrared irradiances from satellites to determine the three dimensional cloud field, allowing for an improved initialization of the cloud field that increases the performance of short-range forecasts. We find that WRF-Solar™ can improve clear sky irradiance prediction by 15-80% over a standard version of WRF, depending on location and cloud conditions. In a formal comparison to the NAM baseline, WRF-Solar™ showed improvements in the Day-Ahead forecast of 22-42%. The SunCast™ system requires substantial software engineering to blend all of the new model components as well as existing publically available NWP model runs. To do this we use an expert system for the Nowcasting blender and the Dynamic Integrated foreCast (DICast®) system for the NWP models. These two systems are then blended, we use an empirical power conversion method to convert the irradiance predictions to power, then apply an analog ensemble (AnEn) approach to further tune the forecast as well as to estimate its uncertainty. The AnEn module decreased RMSE (root mean squared error) by 17% over the blended SunCast™ power forecasts and provided skill in the probabilistic forecast with a Brier Skill Score of 0.55. In addition, we have also developed a Gridded Atmospheric Forecast System (GRAFS) in parallel, leveraging cost share funds. An economic evaluation based on Production Cost Modeling in the Public Service Company of Colorado showed that the observed 50% improvement in forecast accuracy will save their customers $819,200 with the projected MW deployment for 2024. Using econometrics, NCAR has scaled this savings to a national level and shown that an annual expected savings for this 50% forecast error reduction ranges from $11M in 2015 to $43M expected in 2040 with increased solar deployment. This amounts to a $455M discounted savings over the 26 year period of analysis.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

A GPU‐Based Ocean Dynamical Core for Routine Mesoscale‐Resolving Climate Simulations

Abstract We describe an ocean hydrostatic dynamical core implemented in Oceananigans optimized for Graphical Processing Unit (GPU) architectures. On 64 A100 GPUs, equivalent to 16 computational nodes in current state‐of‐the‐art supercomputers, our dynamical core can simulate a decade of near‐global ocean dynamics per wall‐clock day at an 8‐km horizontal resolution; a resolution adequate to resolve the ocean's mesoscale eddy field. Such efficiency, achieved with relatively modest hardware resources, suggests that climate simulations on GPUs can incorporate fully eddy‐resolving ocean models. This removes a major source of systematic bias in current IPCC coupled model projections, the parameterization of ocean eddies, and represents a major advance in climate modeling. We discuss the computational strategies, focusing on GPU‐specific optimization and numerical implementation details that enable such high performance.

Silvestri, Simone [Massachusetts Institute of Tech↗

Model Evaluation by Measurements from Collocated Remote Sensors in Complex Terrain

Model improvement efforts involve an evaluation of changes in model skill in response to changes in model physics and parameterization. When using wind measurements from various remote sensors to determine model forecast accuracy, it is important to understand the effects of measurement-uncertainty differences among the sensors resulting from differences in the methods of measurement, the vertical and temporal resolution of the measurements, and the spatial variability of these differences. Here we quantify instrument measurement variability in 80-m wind speed during WFIP2 and its impact on the calculated errors and the change in error from one model version to another. Here the model versions tested involved updates in model physics from HRRRv1 to HRRRv4, and reductions in grid interval from 3 km to 750 m. Model errors were found to be 2–3 m s –1 . Differences in errors as determined by various instruments at each site amounted to about 10% of this value, or 0.2–0.3 m s –1 . Changes in model skill due to physics or grid-resolution updates also differed depending on the instrument used to determine the errors; most of the instrument-to-instrument differences were ~0.1 m s –1 , but some reached 0.3 m s –1 . All instruments at a given site mostly showed consistency in the sign of the change in error. In two examples, though, the sign changed, illustrating a consequence of differences in measurements: errors determined using one instrument may show improvement in model skill, whereas errors determined using another instrument may indicate degradation. This possibility underscores the importance of having accurate measurements to determine the model error.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

MOFLUX Intensified Soil Moisture Extremes Decrease Soil Organic Carbon Decomposition: Modeling Archive

This Modeling Archive is in support the publication “Intensified Soil Moisture Extremes Decrease Soil Organic Carbon Decomposition: A Mechanistic Modeling Analysis” (Liang et al., 2021). Here we provide model code, inputs, outputs and evaluation datasets for the Microbial ENzyme Decomposition (MEND) model for the Missouri Ozarks AmeriFlux eddy covariance measurement site (MOFLUX) near Ashland, Missouri USA. The MEND model was developed with explicit representation of microbial and enzyme pools to mechanistically simulate the role of microbial organisms and extracellular enzymes in soil organic carbon (SOC) decomposition. Long-term SOC dynamics under intensified moisture extremes are studied using the MEND model that is parameterized with 11 years of measurements from the MOFLUX forest. The model explicitly represents microbial dormancy and resuscitation, different types of SOC-degrading enzymes, and how they vary with changes in soil moisture (Wang et al. 2015, 2019). A combination of two levels of frequency and severity of soil moisture, as well as a control with normal interannual variability, are used to simulate a range of moisture scenarios over 100 years. The code of Microbial-ENzyme Decomposition (MEND) as well as the input and output data are included in the archive. A user’s manual (MEND_Readme.pdf) is included with instructions for compiling and running the model to simulate soil organic carbon decomposition under various moisture scenarios. This dataset contains the modelling archive contained within a compressed (*.zip) file, a file-level metadata file in comma separate (*.csv) format, and two instructional files in PDF (*.pdf) format.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

The Separate Physics and Dynamics Experiment (SPADE) framework for determining resolution awareness: A case study of microphysics

The ability to use multi-resolution dynamical cores for weather and climate modeling is pushing the atmospheric community towards developing scale aware or, more specifically, resolution aware parameterizations that will function properly across a range of grid spacings. Determining the resolution dependence of specific model parameterizations is difficult due to strong resolution dependencies in many pieces of the model. This study presents the Separate Physics and Dynamics Experiment (SPADE) framework that can be used to isolate the resolution dependent behavior of specific parameterizations without conflating resolution dependencies from other portions of the model. To demonstrate the SPADE framework, the resolution dependence of the Morrison microphysics from the Weather Research and Forecasting model and the Morrison-Gettelman microphysics from the Community Atmosphere Model are compared for grid spacings spanning the cloud modeling gray zone. It is shown that the Morrison scheme has stronger resolution dependence than Morrison-Gettelman, and that the ability of Morrison-Gettelman to use partial cloud fractions is not the primary reason for this difference. This study also discusses how to frame the issue of resolution dependence, the meaning of which has often been assumed, but not clearly expressed in the atmospheric modeling community. It is proposed that parameterization resolution dependence can be expressed in terms of "resolution dependence of the first type," RA1, which implies that the parameterization behavior converges towards observations with increasing resolution, or as "resolution dependence of the second type," RA2, which requires that the parameterization reproduces the same behavior across a range of grid spacings when compared at a given coarser resolution. RA2 behavior is considered the ideal, but brings with it serious implications due to limitations of parameterizations to accurately estimate reality with coarse grid spacing. The type of resolution awareness developers should target in their development depends upon the particular modeler’s application.

Gustafson, William I.↗

Challenges of standard halo models in constraining galaxy properties from cosmic infrared background anisotropies

The halo model, combined with halo occupation distribution (HOD) prescriptions, is widely used to interpret cosmic infrared background (CIB) anisotropies and extract physical information about star-forming galaxies and their connection to large-scale structures. Recent CIB-specific implementations of the halo model have adopted more physical parameterizations. However, the extent to which these models can reliably recover meaningful physical parameters remains uncertain. We assessed whether the current parameterization of CIB halo models is sufficient to recover astrophysical quantities, such as star formation efficiency, η(M h , z), and halo mass at which the peak of star formation efficiency occurs, M max , when fit to mock data. We also assessed whether discrepancies arise from assumptions about galaxy emission (the HOD ingredients) or from more fundamental components in the halo model, such as bias and matter clustering. We fit the M21 CIB HOD model, implemented within the halo model framework, to mock CIB power spectra and star formation rate density (SFRD) data generated from the SIDES-Uchuu simulation, and compared the best-fit parameters to the known simulation inputs. We then repeated the analysis using a simplified version of the simulation (SSU), explicitly designed to match the HOD assumptions. A detailed comparison of model and simulation outputs was carried out to trace the origin of observed discrepancies. While the M21 HOD model provides a good fit to the mock data, it failed to recover the intrinsic parameters accurately, particularly the halo mass at which star formation efficiency peaks. This mismatch persists even when fitting data generated with the same model assumptions. We find strong agreement (within 5%) in the emission-related components (SFRD, emissivity), but observe a scale- and redshift-dependent offset exceeding 20% in the two-halo term of the CIB power spectrum. This likely arises from limitations in the treatment of halo bias and matter clustering within the linear approximation. Additionally, incorporating scatter in the SFR–halo mass relation and the spectral energy distribution (SED) templates significantly affects the shot noise (∼50%), but has only a modest impact (less than 10%) on the clustered component. These results suggest that recovering physical parameters from CIB clustering requires improvements to the cosmological ingredients of the halo model framework, such as adopting scale-dependent halo bias and nonlinear matter power spectra in addition to careful modeling of emission physics.

cosmic background radiation↗

Identification and Characterization of Persistent Cold Pool Events from Temperature and Wind Profilers in the Columbia River Basin

Cold pool events occur when deep layers of stable, cold air remain trapped in a valley or basin for multiple days, without mixing out from daytime heating. With large impacts on air quality, freezing events, and es-pecially on wind energy production, they are often poorly forecast by modern mesoscale numerical weather prediction (NWP) models. Understanding the characteristics of cold pools is, therefore, important to provide more accurate forecasts. This study analyzes cold pool characteristics with data collected during the Second Wind Forecast Improvement Project (WFIP2), which took place in the Columbia River basin and Gorge of Oregon and Washington from fall 2015 until spring 2017. A subset of the instrumentation included three microwave radiometer pro?lers, six radar wind pro?lers with radio acoustic sounding systems, and seven sodars, which together provided seven sites with collocated vertical pro?les of temperature, humidity, wind speed, and wind direction. Using these collocated observations, we developed a set of criteria to determine if a cold pool was present based on stability, wind speed, direction, and temporal continuity, and then developed an automated algorithm based on these criteria to identify all cold pool events over the 18 months of the ?eld project. Characteristics of these events are described, including statistics of the wind speed distributions and pro?les, stability conditions, cold pool depths, and descent rates of the cold pool top. The goal of this study is a better understanding of these characteristics and their processes to ultimately lead to improved physical parameterizations in NWP models, and consequently improve forecasts of cold pool events in the study region as well at other locations that experiences similar events.

McCaffrey, Katherine L.↗

Benchmark calculations of radiative forcing by greenhouse gases

Changes in concentrations of greenhouse gases lead to changes in radiative fluxes throughout the atmosphere. The value of this change, the instantaneous radiative forcing, varies across climate models, due partly to differences in the distribution of clouds, humidity, and temperature across models, and partly due to errors introduced by approximate treatments of radiative transfer. This paper describes an experiment within the Radiative Forcing Model Intercomparision Project that uses benchmark calculations made with line–by–line models to identify parameterization error in the representation of absorption and emission by greenhouse gases. Clear–sky instantaneous forcing by greenhouse gases is computed using a set of 100 profiles, selected from a re–analysis of present–day conditions, that represent the global annual mean forcing from pre–industrial times to the present–day with sampling errors of less than 0.01 W m –2 . Six contributing line–by–line models agree in their estimate of this forcing to within 0.025 W m –2 while even recently–developed parameterizations have typical errors four or more times larger, suggesting both that the samples reveal true differences among line–by–line models and that parameterization error will be readily identifiable. Agreement among line–by–line models is better in the longwave than in the shortwave where differing treatments of the water vapor vapor continuum affect estimates of forcing by carbon dioxide and methane. The impacts of clouds on instantaneous radiative forcing are estimated from climate model simulations. Here, the adjustment due to stratospheric temperature change by assuming fixed dynamical heating. Adjustments are large only for ozone and for carbon dioxide, for which stratospheric cooling introduces modest non–linearity.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Parameterizing Convective Organization Effects With a Moisture-PDF Approach in Climate Models: Concept and a Regional Case Simulation

We propose a parameterization scheme of convective organization effects based on a moisture-distribution approach, which can reflect aggregation of convective cells within a model grid as well as the interaction between convection and spatial heterogeneity in free-troposphere moisture. With this concept, convective cells in an aggregated state are surrounded by air that is moister than the grid-mean condition, which provides a “shielding” effect favorable for deeper convective updrafts. Such effects are represented quantitatively via utilizing a schematic diagram about the geometric interpretation of convective cluster, dry area, and their contact area, in which both the convective cluster size and dry area fraction increase during the development of convection. Our sensitivity analyses indicate that the new scheme performs well in capturing the mean precipitation features. Excluding the convective organization effects in the model leads to a considerable reduction in the simulated precipitation magnitude. Notably, there exists an inverse relationship between background mean moisture condition and sub-grid moisture variability for a given rain rate, suggesting that with a high spatial heterogeneity in free-troposphere moisture, convection can still develop and maintain its strength under relatively dry background conditions, consistent with the convection-permitting model simulation. Overall, our new parameterization of convective organization effects can successfully reproduce the relationship between precipitation and sub-grid moisture variability, which is a missing element in traditional convection parameterization schemes but important for the simulations of precipitation variability at various scales in climate models.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Simulated Polarimetric Fields of Ice Vapor Growth Using the Adaptive Habit Model. Part II: A Case Study from the FROST Experiment

Abstract A new adaptive habit model (AHM) grows ice crystals through vapor deposition while evolving ice particle properties, including shape and effective density. The AHM provides an opportunity to investigate observed microphysical processes through the computation of polarimetric variables and corroboration with microphysical model output. This study is unique because the polarimetric scattering calculations are computed using predicted microphysical parameters rather than a priori assumptions that are imposed within the scattering calculations in the forward simulator, allowing for a more effective comparison to radar observations. Through the simulation of a case in the Front Range of the Rocky Mountains in Colorado using the Advanced Research version of the Weather Research and Forecasting Model, it is found that the AHM approximates ice mass, shape, cloud vertical structure, and temporal evolution as reflected through polarimetric quantities compared to observations. AHM reflectivity magnitudes are similar to those observed with radar and are an improvement over spherical ice crystal assumptions. Further analyses are completed to examine the effect of microphysical processes on the evolution of the differential reflectivity and specific differential phase, both of which are simulated using the AHM. Simulations reveal a polarimetric response to ice crystal mass, number, size, density, and aspect ratio. While results reveal the need for model improvements (e.g., parameterizations for aggregation rate), testing forward-simulated radar fields against observations is a first step in the validation of model microphysical and precipitation processes.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

maranasgroup/yeastsMFA

The parameterization of kinetic models requires measurement of fluxes and/or metabolite levels for a base strain and a few genetic perturbations thereof. Unlike stoichiometric models that are mostly invariant to the specific strain, it remains unclear whether kinetic models constructed for different strains of the same species have similar or significantly different kinetic parameters. This important question underpins the applicability range and prediction limits of kinetic reconstructions. To this end, herein we parameterize two separate large-scale kinetic models using K-FIT with genome-wide coverage corresponding to two distinct strains of Saccharomyces cerevisiae: CEN.PK 113-7D strain (model k-sacce306-CENPK), and growth-deficient BY4741 (isogenic to S288c; model k-sacce306-BY4741). The metabolic network for each model contains 306 reactions, 230 metabolites, and 119 substrate-level regulatory interactions. The two models (for CEN.PK and BY4741) recapitulate, within one standard deviation, 77% and 75% of the fitted dataset fluxes, respectively, determined by 13C metabolic flux analysis for wild-type and eight single-gene knockout mutants of each strain. Strain-specific kinetic parameterization results indicate that key enzymes in the TCA cycle, glycolysis, and arginine and proline metabolism drive the metabolic differences between these two strains of S. cerevisiae. Our results suggest that although kinetic models cannot be readily used across strains as stoichiometric models, they can capture species-specific information through the kinetic parameterization process.

Dinh, Hoang↗

maranasgroup/k-sacce306

The parameterization of kinetic models requires measurement of fluxes and/or metabolite levels for a base strain and a few genetic perturbations thereof. Unlike stoichiometric models that are mostly invariant to the specific strain, it remains unclear whether kinetic models constructed for different strains of the same species have similar or significantly different kinetic parameters. This important question underpins the applicability range and prediction limits of kinetic reconstructions. To this end, herein we parameterize two separate large-scale kinetic models using K-FIT with genome-wide coverage corresponding to two distinct strains of Saccharomyces cerevisiae: CEN.PK 113-7D strain (model k-sacce306-CENPK), and growth-deficient BY4741 (isogenic to S288c; model k-sacce306-BY4741). The metabolic network for each model contains 306 reactions, 230 metabolites, and 119 substrate-level regulatory interactions. The two models (for CEN.PK and BY4741) recapitulate, within one standard deviation, 77% and 75% of the fitted dataset fluxes, respectively, determined by 13C metabolic flux analysis for wild-type and eight single-gene knockout mutants of each strain. Strain-specific kinetic parameterization results indicate that key enzymes in the TCA cycle, glycolysis, and arginine and proline metabolism drive the metabolic differences between these two strains of S. cerevisiae. Our results suggest that although kinetic models cannot be readily used across strains as stoichiometric models, they can capture species-specific information through the kinetic parameterization process.

Dinh, Hoang↗

Cloud, Aerosol, and Complex Terrain Interactions (CACTI) Field Campaign Report

General circulation models and downscaled regional models exhibit persistent biases in deep convective initiation location and timing, cloud top height, stratiform area and precipitation fraction, and anvil coverage (e.g., Del Genio 2012, Del Genio et al. 2012, Hohenegger and Stevens 2013, Song et al. 2013). Despite important impacts on the distribution of atmospheric heating, moistening, momentum, and precipitation (e.g., Hartmann et al. 1984, Fritsch et al. 1986, Houze 1989, 2004, Donner et al. 2001, Del Genio and Kovari 2002, Schumacher et al. 2004, Nesbitt et al. 2006, Storelvmo 2012), nearly all climate models fail to represent mesoscale convective organization (Del Genio 2012), while system evolution is not represented at all (Ovchinnikov et al. 2006). Recent advances in cumulus parameterization coupled with increasing model resolution have improved predictions, but even relatively higher-resolution models without parameterized deep convection have some persistent kinematic and microphysical biases (e.g., Blossey et al. 2007, Matsui et al. 2009, Luo et al. 2010, Lang et al. 2011, Varble et al. 2011, Fridlind et al. 2012, Hagos et al. 2014, Varble et al. 2014a-b, Fan et al. 2017, Stanford et al. 2017, Han et al. 2019). To improve representation of convective systems in models requires adequate characterization of their predictability as a function of environmental conditions. Because of the significant sensitivities of deep convective initiation, intensity, lifetime, propagation, and mesoscale convective organization to many factors including multi-scale atmospheric circulations, ambient environmental stability, humidity, wind distributions, and cloud microphysical processes, this characterization relies on comprehensively observing many cases of convective initiation, non-initiation, organization, and non-organization.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Assessing the impact of substrate-level enzyme regulations limiting ethanol titer in Clostridium thermocellum using a core kinetic model

Clostridium thermocellum is a promising candidate for consolidated bioprocessing because it can directly ferment cellulose to ethanol. Despite significant efforts, achieved yields and titers fall below industrially relevant targets. This implies that there still exist unknown enzymatic, regulatory, and/or possibly thermodynamic bottlenecks that can throttle back metabolic flow. By (i) elucidating internal metabolic fluxes in wild-type C. thermocellum grown on cellobiose via 13 C-metabolic flux analysis ( 13 C-MFA), (ii) parameterizing a core kinetic model, and (iii) subsequently deploying an ensemble-docking workflow for discovering substrate-level regulations, this paper aims to reveal some of these factors and expand our knowledgebase governing C. thermocellum metabolism. Generated 13 C labeling data were used with 13 C-MFA to generate a wild-type flux distribution for the metabolic network. Notably, flux elucidation through MFA alluded to serine generation via the mercaptopyruvate pathway. Using the elucidated flux distributions in conjunction with batch fermentation process yield data for various mutant strains, we constructed a kinetic model of C. thermocellum core metabolism (i.e. k-ctherm138). Subsequently, we used the parameterized kinetic model to explore the effect of removing substrate-level regulations on ethanol yield and titer. Upon exploring all possible simultaneous (up to four) regulation removals we identified combinations that lead to many-fold model predicted improvement in ethanol titer. In addition, by coupling a systematic method for identifying putative competitive inhibitory mechanisms using K-FIT kinetic parameterization with the ensemble-docking workflow, we flagged 67 putative substrate-level inhibition mechanisms across central carbon metabolism supported by both kinetic formalism and docking analysis.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Sensitivity of a global climate model to the critical Richardson number in the boundary layer parameterization

The critical bulk Richardson number (Ri cr ) is an important parameter in planetary boundary layer (PBL) parameterization schemes used in many climate models. This paper examines the sensitivity of a Global Climate Model, the Beijing Climate Center Atmospheric General Circulation Model, BCC_AGCM to Ri cr . The results show that the simulated global average of PBL height increases nearly linearly with Ri cr , with a change of about 114 m for a change of 0.5 in Ri cr . The surface sensible (latent) heat flux decreases (increases) as Ri cr increases. The influence of Ri cr on surface air temperature and specific humidity is not significant. The increasing Ri cr may affect the location of the Westerly Belt in the Southern Hemisphere. Further diagnosis reveals that changes in Ri cr affect stratiform and convective precipitations differently. Increasing Ri cr leads to an increase in the stratiform precipitation but a decrease in the convective precipitation. Significant changes of convective precipitation occur over the inter-tropical convergence zone, while changes of stratiform precipitation mostly appear over arid land such as North Africa and Middle East.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Optical Activity of Chiral Excitons

Recent activity in the area of chiroptical phenomena has been focused on the connection between structural asymmetry, electron spin configuration and light/matter interactions in chiral semiconductors. In these systems, spin‐splitting phenomena emerge due to inversion symmetry breaking and the presence of extended electronic states, yet the connection to chiroptical phenomena is lacking. Here, in this study, we develop an analytical effective mass model of chiral excitons, parameterized by density functional theory. The model accounts for parity mixing of the band edge Bloch functions resulting from polar distortions, resulting in allowed magnetic dipole transitions. Through the study of a prototypical chiral 2D hybrid perovskite semiconductor, we show that circular dichroism of the chiral exciton and its interband continuum emerges from spin‐splitting via cross‐coupling of Rashba‐like and chiral/helical spin‐texture components. To demonstrate the generality of our approach, and as a counterpoint, we apply our model to describe chiroptical properties of three‐dimensionally confined excitons in perovskite nanocrystals that occur without chiral lattice distortions.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗