Filling the Gaps: The Synergistic Application of Satellite Data for the Volcanic Ash Threat to Aviation
Although significant progress has been made in recent years, estimating volcanic ash concentration for the full extent of the airspace affected by volcanic ash remains a challenge. No single satellite, airborne or ground observing system currently exists which can sufficiently inform dispersion models to provide the degree of accuracy required to use them with a high degree of confidence for routing aircraft in and near volcanic ash. Toward this end, the detection and characterization of volcanic ash in the atmosphere may be substantially improved by integrating a wider array of observing systems and advancements in trajectory and dispersion modeling to help solve this problem. The qualitative aspect of this effort has advanced significantly in the past decade due to the increase of highly complementary observational and model data currently available. Satellite observations, especially when coupled with trajectory and dispersion models can provide a very accurate picture of the 3-dimensional location of ash clouds. The accurate estimate of the mass loading at various locations throughout the entire plume, however improving, remains elusive. This paper examines the capabilities of various satellite observation systems and postulates that model-based volcanic ash concentration maps and forecasts might be significantly improved if the various extant satellite capabilities are used together with independent, accurate mass loading data from other observing systems available to calibrate (tune) ash concentration retrievals from the satellite systems.