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At least 703 records · Page 39
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS2021

Comparison of chemical lateral boundary conditions for air quality predictions over the contiguous United States during pollutant intrusion events

The National Air Quality Forecast Capability (NAQFC) operated in U.S.’s National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) provides the operational forecast guidance for ozone and fine particulate matters with aerodynamic diameters less than 2.5μm (PM2.5) over the contiguous 48 U.S. states (CONUS) using the Community Multi-scale Air Quality (CMAQ) model. The existing NAQFC uses climatological chemical lateral boundary conditions ( CLBCs), which cannot capture pollutant intrusion events originating outside of the model domain. In this study, we developed a model framework to use dynamic CLBCs from the Goddard Earth Observing System Model, version 5 (GEOS) to drive NAQFC. A mapping of the GEOS chemical species to the CMAQ’s Carbon Bond 5 (CB05)-Aero6 species was developed. The utilization of the GEOS dynamic CLBCs in NAQFC showed the best overall performance in simulating the surface observations during the Saharan dust intrusion and Canadian wildfire events in summer 2015.The simulated PM2.5 was improved from 0.18 to 0.37 and the mean bias was reduced from -6.74 μg/m3 to -2.96 μg/m3 over CONUS. Although the effect of CLBCs on the PM2.5 correlation was mainly near the inflow boundary, its impact on the background concentrations reached further inside the domain. The CLBCs could affect background ozone concentrations through the inflows of ozone itself and its precursors, such as CO. It was further found that the aerosol optical thickness (AOT) from satellite retrievals correlated well with the column CO and elemental carbon from GEOS. The satellite-derived AOT CLBCs generally improved the model performance for the wildfire intrusion events during a summer 2018 case study, and demonstrated how satellite observations of atmospheric composition could be used as an alternative method to capture the air quality effects of intrusions when the global model CLBCs, such as GEOS CLBCs, are not available.

Community Multi-scale Air Quality (CMAQ) model↗
NASA NTRS2013

Ionospheric Simulation System for Satellite Observations and Global Assimilative Modeling Experiments (ISOGAME)

ISOGAME is designed and developed to assess quantitatively the impact of new observation systems on the capability of imaging and modeling the ionosphere. With ISOGAME, one can perform observation system simulation experiments (OSSEs). A typical OSSE using ISOGAME would involve: (1) simulating various ionospheric conditions on global scales; (2) simulating ionospheric measurements made from a constellation of low-Earth-orbiters (LEOs), particularly Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS) radio occultation data, and from ground-based global GNSS networks; (3) conducting ionospheric data assimilation experiments with the Global Assimilative Ionospheric Model (GAIM); and (4) analyzing modeling results with visualization tools. ISOGAME can provide quantitative assessment of the accuracy of assimilative modeling with the interested observation system. Other observation systems besides those based on GNSS are also possible to analyze. The system is composed of a suite of software that combines the GAIM, including a 4D first-principles ionospheric model and data assimilation modules, an Internal Reference Ionosphere (IRI) model that has been developed by international ionospheric research communities, observation simulator, visualization software, and orbit design, simulation, and optimization software. The core GAIM model used in ISOGAME is based on the GAIM++ code (written in C++) that includes a new high-fidelity geomagnetic field representation (multi-dipole). New visualization tools and analysis algorithms for the OSSEs are now part of ISOGAME.

Pi, Xiaoqing↗
NASA NTRS2015

The Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project (AgMIP) Town Hall

AgMIP (www.agmip.org) is an international community of climate, crop, livestock, economics, and IT experts working to further the development and application of multi-model, multi-scale, multi-disciplinary agricultural models that can inform policy and decision makers around the world. This meeting will engage the AGU community by providing a brief overview of AgMIP, in particular its new plans for a Coordinated Global and Regional Assessment of climate change impacts on agriculture and food security for AR6. This Town Hall will help identify opportunities for participants to become involved in AgMIP and its 30+ activities.

farm crops↗
NASA NTRS1993

Examples of data assimilation in mesoscale models

The keynote address was the problem of physical initialization of mesoscale models. The classic purpose of physical or diabatic initialization is to reduce or eliminate the spin-up error caused by the lack, at the initial time, of the fully developed vertical circulations required to support regions of large rainfall rates. However, even if a model has no spin-up problem, imposition of observed moisture and heating rate information during assimilation can improve quantitative precipitation forecasts, especially early in the forecast. The two key issues in physical initialization are the choice of assimilating technique and sources of hydrologic/hydrometeor data. Another example of data assimilation in mesoscale models was presented in a series of meso-beta scale model experiments with and 11 km version of the MASS model designed to investigate the sensitivity of convective initiation forced by thermally direct circulations resulting from differential surface heating to four dimensional assimilation of surface and radar data. The results of these simulations underscore the need to accurately initialize and simulate grid and sub-grid scale clouds in meso- beta scale models. The status of the application of the CSU-RAMS mesoscale model by the NOAA Forecast Systems Lab for producing real-time forecasts with 10-60 km mesh resolutions over (4000 km)(exp 2) domains for use by the aviation community was reported. Either MAPS or LAPS model data are used to initialize the RAMS model on a 12-h cycle. The use of MAPS (Mesoscale Analysis and Prediction System) model was discussed. Also discussed was the mesobeta-scale data assimilation using a triply-nested nonhydrostatic version of the MM5 model.

Carr, Fred↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Lessons Learned and Best Practices for Utilizing a Generalized Composite Impact Model

A material model which incorporates several key capabilities which have been identified as lacking in currently available composite impact models has been developed. The material model utilizes experimentally based tabulated input to define the evolution of plasticity and damage as opposed to specifying discrete input parameters (such as modulus and strength). It has been implemented into the commercially available transient dynamic finite element code LS-DYNA® as MAT_213. The model can simulate the nonlinear deformation, damage and failure that take place in a composite under dynamic loading conditions. As MAT_213 is now being used by a general user community that did not participate in the model development process, a number of issues have been identified that caused uncertainty in assembling a MAT_213 input deck and conducting a MAT_213 analysis. The overall goal of this effort is to develop a quantified set of lessons learned and best practices which will permit a new user to conduct useful MAT_213 simulations without needing to have detailed expert knowledge of the material model and its theoretical underpinnings.

Micromechanics↗
NASA NTRS2015

Development of a Grid-Independent Geos-Chem Chemical Transport Model (v9-02) as an Atmospheric Chemistry Module for Earth System Models

The GEOS-Chem global chemical transport model (CTM), used by a large atmospheric chemistry research community, has been re-engineered to also serve as an atmospheric chemistry module for Earth system models (ESMs). This was done using an Earth System Modeling Framework (ESMF) interface that operates independently of the GEOSChem scientific code, permitting the exact same GEOSChem code to be used as an ESM module or as a standalone CTM. In this manner, the continual stream of updates contributed by the CTM user community is automatically passed on to the ESM module, which remains state of science and referenced to the latest version of the standard GEOS-Chem CTM. A major step in this re-engineering was to make GEOS-Chem grid independent, i.e., capable of using any geophysical grid specified at run time. GEOS-Chem data sockets were also created for communication between modules and with external ESM code. The grid-independent, ESMF-compatible GEOS-Chem is now the standard version of the GEOS-Chem CTM. It has been implemented as an atmospheric chemistry module into the NASA GEOS- 5 ESM. The coupled GEOS-5-GEOS-Chem system was tested for scalability and performance with a tropospheric oxidant-aerosol simulation (120 coupled species, 66 transported tracers) using 48-240 cores and message-passing interface (MPI) distributed-memory parallelization. Numerical experiments demonstrate that the GEOS-Chem chemistry module scales efficiently for the number of cores tested, with no degradation as the number of cores increases. Although inclusion of atmospheric chemistry in ESMs is computationally expensive, the excellent scalability of the chemistry module means that the relative cost goes down with increasing number of cores in a massively parallel environment.

CTM↗
NASA NTRS2018

Hybrid Reduced Order Model for N2-N2 Interactions for Application to Dissociation and Energy Transfer Processes

Recent work in the aerothermodynamics community has focused on the development of reduced-order models for thermo-chemical non-equilibrium which avoid the restrictive assumptions of multi-temperature models and the prohibitive cost associated with State-to-State (StS) models. In the present work, this is accomplished by lumping energy states together and assuming groups of states are roughly in equilibrium. As a result, the non-equilibrium behavior of a gas can be captured at a reduced computational cost from a full StS simulation. In this work, we present a hybrid grouping model for studying energy transfer and dissociation in a mixture of nitrogen molecules due to N2-N2 reactions. This is accomplished by making use of a grouping strategy informed by data from the N2-N StS kinetic data. However, due to the massive computational cost associated with constructing StS data for the N2-N2 system, the kinetic data for the hybrid grouping model are calculated using the quasi-classical trajectory (QCT) method by sampling states for trajectory within the groups. This general framework is called the Maximum-Entropy Quasi-Classical Trajectory (ME-QCT) method. The primary challenge associated with this method is that rates for reverse grouped reactions cannot be obtained through detailed balance at a group level, due to the variation of group internal temperatures. To construct the full model for N2-N2 grouped kinetics using the ME-QCT method, detailed balance is invoked at the microscopic level, allowing for the calculation of the full kinetic data from QCT. Results will be presented using the full ME-QCT model for the N2-N2 system in an isothermal and isochoric reactor simulation. In addition, simple CFD test cases for a one-dimensional standing shock and for a quasi-one-dimensional nozzle will be used for demonstration of the ME-QCT method. This method allows for the calculation of non-equilibrium behavior for the N2-N2 system without the prohibitive cost of a full StS simulation. Moreover, it enables the construction of a unified model for the dissociating and recombining non-equilibrium flows.

nonequilibrium modeling↗
NASA NTRS2016

Towards a New Generation of Agricultural System Data, Models and Knowledge Products: Design and Improvement

This paper presents ideas for a new generation of agricultural system models that could meet the needs of a growing community of end-users exemplified by a set of Use Cases. We envision new data, models and knowledge products that could accelerate the innovation process that is needed to achieve the goal of achieving sustainable local, regional and global food security. We identify desirable features for models, and describe some of the potential advances that we envisage for model components and their integration. We propose an implementation strategy that would link a "pre-competitive" space for model development to a "competitive space" for knowledge product development and through private-public partnerships for new data infrastructure. Specific model improvements would be based on further testing and evaluation of existing models, the development and testing of modular model components and integration, and linkages of model integration platforms to new data management and visualization tools.

Agricultural systems↗
NASA NTRS2019

Progress Towards Modeling the Ablation Response of NuSil-Coated PICA

The Mars Science Laboratory (MSL) Entry, Descent and Landing Instrumentation (MEDLI) collected in-flight data largely used by the ablation community to verify and validate physics-based models for the response of the Phenolic Impregnated Carbon Ablator (PICA) material [1-4]. MEDLI data were recently used to guide the development of NASA’s high-fidelity material response models for PICA, implemented in the Porous material Analysis Toolbox based on OpenFOAM (PATO) software [5-6]. A follow-up instrumentation suite, MEDLI2, is planned for the upcoming Mars 2020 mission [7] after the large scientific impact of MEDLI. Recent analyses performed as part of MEDLI2 development draw the attention to significant effects of a protective coating to the aerothermal response of PICA. NuSil, a silicone-based overcoat sprayed onto the MSL heatshield as contamination control, is currently neglected in PICA ablation models. To mitigate the spread of phenolic dust from PICA, NuSil was applied to the entire MSL heatshield, including the MEDLI plugs. NuSil is a space grade designation of the siloxane copolymer, primarily used to protect against atomic oxygen erosion in the Low Earth Orbit environment. Ground testing of PICA-NuSil (PICA-N) models all exhibited surface temperature jumps of the order of 200 K due to oxide scale formation and subsequent NuSil burn-off. It is therefore critical to include a model for the aerothermal response of the coating in ongoing code development and validation efforts.

Meurisse, Jeremie B.↗
NASA NTRS2010

Thermal Infrared Emission Spectroscopy of Synthetic Allophane and its Potential Formation on Mars

Allophane is a poorly-crystalline, hydrous aluminosilicate with variable Si/Al ratios approx.0.5-1 and a metastable precursor of clay minerals. On Earth, it forms rapidly by aqueous alteration of volcanic glass under neutral to slightly acidic conditions [1]. Based on in situ chemical measurements and the identification of alteration phases [2-4], the Martian surface is interpreted to have been chemically weathered on local to regional scales. Chemical models of altered surfaces detected by the Mars Exploration Rover Spirit in Gusev crater suggest the presence of an allophane-like alteration product [3]. Thermal infrared (TIR) spectroscopy and spectral deconvolution models are primary tools for determining the mineralogy of the Martian surface [5]. Spectral models of data from the Thermal Emission Spectrometer (TES) indicate a global compositional dichotomy, where high latitudes tend to be enriched in a high-silica material [6,7], interpreted as high-silica, K-rich volcanic glass [6,8]. However, later interpretations proposed that the high-silica material may be an alteration product (such as amorphous silica, clay minerals, or allophane) and that high latitude surfaces are chemically weathered [9-11]. A TIR spectral library of pure minerals is available for the public [12], but it does not contain allophane spectra. The identification of allophane on the Martian surface would indicate high water activity at the time of its formation and would help constrain the aqueous alteration environment [13,14]. The addition of allophane to the spectral library is necessary to address the global compositional dichotomy. In this study, we characterize a synthetic allophane by IR spectroscopy, X-ray diffraction (XRD), and transmission electron microscopy (TEM) to create an IR emission spectrum of pure allophane for the Mars science community to use in Martian spectral models.

Rampe, E. B.↗
NASA NTRS2007

Identification and Control of Aircrafts using Multiple Models and Adaptive Critics

We compared two possible implementations of local linear models for control: one approach is based on a self-organizing map (SOM) to cluster the dynamics followed by a set of linear models operating at each cluster. Therefore the gating function is hard (a single local model will represent the regional dynamics). This simplifies the controller design since there is a one to one mapping between controllers and local models. The second approach uses a soft gate using a probabilistic framework based on a Gaussian Mixture Model (also called a dynamic mixture of experts). In this approach several models may be active at a given time, we can expect a smaller number of models, but the controller design is more involved, with potentially better noise rejection characteristics. Our experiments showed that the SOM provides overall best performance in high SNRs, but the performance degrades faster than with the GMM for the same noise conditions. The SOM approach required about an order of magnitude more models than the GMM, so in terms of implementation cost, the GMM is preferable. The design of the SOM is straight forward, while the design of the GMM controllers, although still reasonable, is more involved and needs more care in the selection of the parameters. Either one of these locally linear approaches outperform global nonlinear controllers based on neural networks, such as the time delay neural network (TDNN). Therefore, in essence the local model approach warrants practical implementations. In order to call the attention of the control community for this design methodology we extended successfully the multiple model approach to PID controllers (still today the most widely used control scheme in the industry), and wrote a paper on this subject. The echo state network (ESN) is a recurrent neural network with the special characteristics that only the output parameters are trained. The recurrent connections are preset according to the problem domain and are fixed. In a nutshell, the states of the reservoir of recurrent processing elements implement a projection space, where the desired response is optimally projected. This architecture trades training efficiency by a large increase in the dimension of the recurrent layer. However, the power of the recurrent neural networks can be brought to bear on practical difficult problems. Our goal was to implement an adaptive critic architecture implementing Bellman s approach to optimal control. However, we could only characterize the ESN performance as a critic in value function evaluation, which is just one of the pieces of the overall adaptive critic controller. The results were very convincing, and the simplicity of the implementation was unparalleled.

Principe, Jose C.↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Developing Procedures to Implement Geometric Imperfections Beyond Right Circular Cylindrical Shells in Finite Element Method Models

Analysis of aerospace structures is frequently conducted using nominal dimensions and frequently assumes ideal conditions in loading, contact, constraints, et cetera. Off-nominal dimensions and nonideal conditions, however, are present in all structures. These are the result of widely ranging causes from coefficient of thermal expansion mismatches, manufacturing tooling anomalies, to assembly procedures that inadvertently alter the structure. Specifically, geometric imperfections can have potentially significant influence on the response of a structural test article observed in an experiment versus the response given by a numerical simulation. The Python Tool for Implementing Geometric Imperfections in Reduced Structures (Py_TIGIRS) was previously presented as a set of Python scripts to calculate and implement as-manufactured geometric midsurface and thickness imperfections into finite element method (FEM) shell models of nominally right circular cylinders. By taking advantage of the simple shape of a right circular cylinder, interpolations of the measured data points were able to be performed along directions that aligned to the cylindrical coordinate system axes of the entire structure. By taking advantage of the shell representation of the real structure as opposed to modeling using a continuum representation, the thickness variation was able to be implemented by shell section definitions instead of having to modify the position of multiple nodes in the thickness direction. Py_TIGIRS is a useful tool that established a procedural example on how to implement geometric imperfections in right circular cylindrical shell structures. Three new procedures, each expanded from concepts established in Py_TIGIRS, are proposed for various test-article designs and are intended to broaden the range of structures that can be modeled with measured geometric imperfections in the structural analysis community. Each test-article design introduces new challenges to successfully implement geometric imperfections into a FEM model. The first test-article design consists of a carbon fiber reinforced polymer square plate with a hat-shaped stiffener co-cured on one side. This test-article design was for a novel seven-point bend test that was also previously presented. Manufacturing and cure-cycle imperfections are observed using digital image correlation (DIC) techniques. As thermal expansion coefficient mismatches between the plate and stiffener materials were anticipated, a thermal analysis study with continuum shell and solid elements was conducted to capture the global shape observed prior to testing. The second test-article design is of a similar hat-stiffened plate configuration, but with a side length ratio near 3:1 with elongation in the stiffener direction. The test article was used to characterize the response to uniaxial compressive loading in the direction of the stiffener. Due to differing manufacturing steps, a thermal analysis like the one developed for the seven-point bend configuration was unable to mimic the observed geometric imperfections. Instead, a strategy based on applying deformations directly to the structure during analysis was developed for continuum shell and solid element representation of a stiffened panel.

Geometric imperfections↗
NASA NTRS2016

Brief History of Agricultural Systems Modeling

Agricultural systems science generates knowledge that allows researchers to consider complex problems or take informed agricultural decisions. The rich history of this science exemplifies the diversity of systems and scales over which they operate and have been studied. Modeling, an essential tool in agricultural systems science, has been accomplished by scientists from a wide range of disciplines, who have contributed concepts and tools over more than six decades. As agricultural scientists now consider the next generation models, data, and knowledge products needed to meet the increasingly complex systems problems faced by society, it is important to take stock of this history and its lessons to ensure that we avoid re-invention and strive to consider all dimensions of associated challenges. To this end, we summarize here the history of agricultural systems modeling and identify lessons learned that can help guide the design and development of next generation of agricultural system tools and methods. A number of past events combined with overall technological progress in other fields have strongly contributed to the evolution of agricultural system modeling, including development of process-based bio-physical models of crops and livestock, statistical models based on historical observations, and economic optimization and simulation models at household and regional to global scales. Characteristics of agricultural systems models have varied widely depending on the systems involved, their scales, and the wide range of purposes that motivated their development and use by researchers in different disciplines. Recent trends in broader collaboration across institutions, across disciplines, and between the public and private sectors suggest that the stage is set for the major advances in agricultural systems science that are needed for the next generation of models, databases, knowledge products and decision support systems. The lessons from history should be considered to help avoid roadblocks and pitfalls as the community develops this next generation of agricultural systems models.

agricultural systems↗
NASA NTRS2016

Analysis and Characterization of Damage and Failure Utilizing a Generalized Composite Material Model Suitable for Use in Impact Problems

A material model which incorporates several key capabilities which have been identified by the aerospace community as lacking in state-of-the art composite impact models is under development. In particular, a next generation composite impact material model, jointly developed by the FAA and NASA, is being implemented into the commercial transient dynamic finite element code LS-DYNA. The material model, which incorporates plasticity, damage, and failure, utilizes experimentally based tabulated input to define the evolution of plasticity and damage and the initiation of failure as opposed to specifying discrete input parameters (such as modulus and strength). The plasticity portion of the orthotropic, three-dimensional, macroscopic composite constitutive model is based on an extension of the Tsai-Wu composite failure model into a generalized yield function with a non-associative flow rule. For the damage model, a strain equivalent formulation is utilized to allow for the uncoupling of the deformation and damage analyses. In the damage model, a semi-coupled approach is employed where the overall damage in a particular coordinate direction is assumed to be a multiplicative combination of the damage in that direction resulting from the applied loads in the various coordinate directions. Due to the fact that the plasticity and damage models are uncoupled, test procedures and methods to both characterize the damage model and to covert the material stress-strain curves from the true (damaged) stress space to the effective (undamaged) stress space have been developed. A methodology has been developed to input the experimentally determined composite failure surface in a tabulated manner. An analytical approach is then utilized to track how close the current stress state is to the failure surface.

Finite Element Method↗
NASA NTRS2019

Introduction to Coupled Atmosphere/Ocean Modeling and Data Assimilation [for NWP, Subseasonal to Seasonal Prediction, Reanalysis]

An introduction to coupled modeling and data assimilation was presented, along with the current status of the community efforts. Motivation was shown for running forecasts with a coupled model from weather to seasonal scales, as was motivation for doing the data assimilation coupled as well. The different "flavors" of coupled data assimilation in use or planned at different modeling centers were discussed. Finally, a set of current and potential problem with coupled modeling and data assimilation were illustrated.

Molod, Andrea↗
NASA NTRS2015

Assimilation of GPM GMI Rainfall Product with WRF GSI

The Global Precipitation Measurement (GPM) is an international mission to provide next-generation observations of rain and snow worldwide. The GPM built on Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) legacy, while the core observatory will extend the observations to higher latitudes. The GPM observations can help advance our understanding of precipitation microphysics and storm structures. Launched on February 27th, 2014, the GPM core observatory is carrying advanced instruments that can be used to quantify when, where, and how much it rains or snows around the world. Therefore, the use of GPM data in numerical modeling work is a new area and will have a broad impact in both research and operational communities. The goal of this research is to examine the methodology of assimilation of the GPM retrieved products. The data assimilation system used in this study is the community Gridpoint Statistical Interpolation (GSI) system for the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model developed by the Development Testbed Center (DTC). The community GSI system runs in independently environment, yet works functionally equivalent to operational centers. With collaboration with the NASA Short-term Prediction Research and Transition (SPoRT) Center, this research explores regional assimilation of the GPM products with case studies. Our presentation will highlight our recent effort on the assimilation of the GPM product 2AGPROFGMI, the retrieved Microwave Imager (GMI) rainfall rate data for initializing a real convective storm. WRF model simulations and storm scale data assimilation experiments will be examined, emphasizing both model initialization and short-term forecast of precipitation fields and processes. In addition, discussion will be provided on the development of enhanced assimilation procedures in the GSI system with respect to other GPM products. Further details of the methodology of data assimilation, preliminary result and test on the impact of GPM data and the influence on precipitation forecast will be presented at the conference.

Li, Xuanli↗
NASA NTRS1991

Database for propagation models

A propagation researcher or a systems engineer who intends to use the results of a propagation experiment is generally faced with various database tasks such as the selection of the computer software, the hardware, and the writing of the programs to pass the data through the models of interest. This task is repeated every time a new experiment is conducted or the same experiment is carried out at a different location generating different data. Thus the users of this data have to spend a considerable portion of their time learning how to implement the computer hardware and the software towards the desired end. This situation may be facilitated considerably if an easily accessible propagation database is created that has all the accepted (standardized) propagation phenomena models approved by the propagation research community. Also, the handling of data will become easier for the user. Such a database construction can only stimulate the growth of the propagation research it if is available to all the researchers, so that the results of the experiment conducted by one researcher can be examined independently by another, without different hardware and software being used. The database may be made flexible so that the researchers need not be confined only to the contents of the database. Another way in which the database may help the researchers is by the fact that they will not have to document the software and hardware tools used in their research since the propagation research community will know the database already. The following sections show a possible database construction, as well as properties of the database for the propagation research.

Kantak, Anil V.↗
NASA NTRS1992

Linkages between terrestrial ecosystems and the atmosphere

The primary research issue in understanding the role of terrestrial ecosystems in global change is analyzing the coupling between processes with vastly differing rates of change, from photosynthesis to community change. Representing this coupling in models is the central challenge to modeling the terrestrial biosphere as part of the earth system. Terrestrial ecosystems participate in climate and in the biogeochemical cycles on several temporal scales. Some of the carbon fixed by photosynthesis is incorporated into plant tissue and is delayed from returning to the atmosphere until it is oxidized by decomposition or fire. This slower (i.e., days to months) carbon loop through the terrestrial component of the carbon cycle, which is matched by cycles of nutrients required by plants and decomposers, affects the increasing trend in atmospheric CO2 concentration and imposes a seasonal cycle on that trend. Moreover, this cycle includes key controls over biogenic trace gas production. The structure of terrestrial ecosystems, which responds on even longer time scales (annual to century), is the integrated response to the biogeochemical and environmental constraints that develop over the intermediate time scale. The loop is closed back to the climate system since it is the structure of ecosystems, including species composition, that sets the terrestrial boundary condition in the climate system through modification of surface roughness, albedo, and, to a great extent, latent heat exchange. These separate temporal scales contain explicit feedback loops which may modify ecosystem dynamics and linkages between ecosystems and the atmosphere. The long-term change in climate, resulting from increased atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases (e.g., CO2, CH4, and nitrous oxide (N2O)) will further modify the global environment and potentially induce further ecosystem change. Modeling these interactions requires coupling successional models to biogeochemical models to physiological models that describe the exchange of water, energy, and biogenic trace gases between the vegetation and the atmosphere at fine time scales. There does not appear to be any obvious way to allow direct reciprocal coupling of atmospheric general circulation models (GCM's), which inherently run with fine time steps, to ecosystem or successional models, which have coarse temporal resolution, without the interposition of physiological canopy models. This is equally true for biogeochemical models of the exchange of carbon dioxide and trace gases. This coupling across time scales is nontrivial and sets the focus for the modeling strategy.

Bretherton, Francis↗