Results for “integrated assessment” — Page 39

DOE OSTI2021

Assessing the future of global energy-for-water

This study incorporates the energy demands of water abstraction, treatment, distribution, and post-use (wastewater) treatment into the Global Change Assessment Model (GCAM), an integrated human-Earth systems model, and analyzes a range of scenarios that estimate the future evolution of this demand of energy. The study builds on prior research on the historical demands of energy-for-water, fitting these demands of energy into existing nation-level energy balances, where demands for energy-for-water have heretofore been aggregated with other energy use in the commercial and public services, industrial, agricultural, and/or electric power sectors. This development allows for improved projections of future energy demands in general, and in this study, allows for assessment of the energy implications of different scenarios of improvements in water access and water quality that are consistent with the Sustainable Development Goals. In our baseline scenario, energy-for-water approximately doubles from 2010 to 2050, and in the scenario with the greatest level of water access, standards for treatment of wastewater, and irrigation expansion, the consequent energy-for-water demands increase three-fold from 2010 to 2050. Note also that these increases do not consider future scarcity-driven increases in energy requirements per unit of water abstraction, treatment, and distribution.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2026

Integration of GOES Data for Solar Resource Assessment of the Contiguous United States

The National Solar Radiation Database (NSRDB), produced by the National Laboratory of the Rockies (NLR), provides high-resolution solar resource data for the contiguous United States (CONUS) using Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite (GOES) East and West observations. This study evaluates the integration of multi-satellite data within the GOES-East/West overlap regions, where conventional longitude-based selection methods often produce an artificial boundary seam. Our results demonstrate that an advanced blending algorithm, which incorporates sun-satellite scattering angles and satellite viewing zenith angles, improves NSRDB accuracy and creates a spatially continuous dataset. Validation against ground-based irradiance measurements reveals reductions in both percentage error (PE) and normalized Root Mean Square Error (nRMSE), particularly in the central United States. The dynamical integration of multi-satellite data provides a robust foundation for more precise modeling of solar resource and improved spatiotemporal analysis of solar ramp across the CONUS.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2021

A Method for Assessing Effectiveness and Technical Capabilities Required for Integrated Deterrence (NSLP-Final Report-Draft2022)

The United States faces an ever-increasingly multi-polar security environment dominated by great power competition with China and a lingering Russian threat as well as from would-be regional hegemons led by ambitions from Iran and North Korea. Our adversaries are pursuing and expanding the strategic means by-which they have an asymmetric offset (e.g., cyber, space, and other modes below the level of armed conflict). To combat and deter against the widening range of hostile actions, the U.S. must have additional capabilities with-which to deter. All of which drives us towards a more thoughtful integrated approach to deterrence, attempting to best align deterrent tools with the adversary actions in order to maximize the credibility of our deterrent. Such an approach complicates our deterrence strategy and demands a methodology to assess whether the U.S. has the deterrent tools necessary to deter the adversarial actions most costly to the U.S. To address this complexity, we create a framework to comprehensively and systematically assess our deterrent tools as qualitatively measured against the adversarial actions we wish to deter. Deterrence is ultimately an operation in the cognitive domain and at the heart of the framework presented here is the fundamental deterrence calculus which we use as the defining measure of whether a tool will credibly deter a given action. We describe the eight levers of the deterrence calculus and distill these levers to four products that are used to qualitatively assess the overall effectiveness of deterrence tools against adversarial actions. Credibility is determined by two principal variables: the technical credibility of the deterrent tool, and the principle of proportionality. Technical credibility of realized deterrence products is assessed through development of key mission requirements and hardware (e.g., components) that will impose costs, deny benefits, or encourage restraint. The principle of proportionality qualitatively asserts that for a deterrent tool to be cognitively credible, the costs imposed against, or benefits denied by, an action are commensurate to the magnitude of costs received from the adversarial action. By basing this framework on these two fundamentals, it is possible to compare deterrent tools in a systematic approach across the broad spectrum of hostile actions.

42 ENGINEERING↗

DOE OSTI2024

OSW Consortium 2 - Validated National Offshore Wind Resource Dataset with Uncertainty Quantification (CRADA Report)

This research has led to the development of the 2023 National Offshore Wind data set (NOW-23), which offers the latest wind resource information for offshore regions in the United States. NOW-23 supersedes, for its offshore component, the Wind Integration National Dataset (WIND) Toolkit, which was published a decade ago and is currently a primary resource for wind resource assessments and grid integration studies in the contiguous United States. By incorporating advancements in the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model, NOW-23 delivers an updated and cutting-edge product to stakeholders. As part of this project, we also developed a summary of the uncertainty quantification in NOW-23, along with NOW-WAKES, a 1-year post-construction data set that quantifies expected offshore wake effects in the US Mid-Atlantic lease areas. Stakeholders can access the NOW-23 data set at https://doi.org/10.25984/1821404.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2024

The 2023 National Offshore Wind data set (NOW-23)

Abstract. This article introduces the 2023 National Offshore Wind data set (NOW-23), which offers the latest wind resource information for offshore regions in the United States. NOW-23 supersedes, for its offshore component, the Wind Integration National Dataset (WIND) Toolkit, which was published a decade ago and is currently a primary resource for wind resource assessments and grid integration studies in the contiguous United States. By incorporating advancements in the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model, NOW-23 delivers an updated and cutting-edge product to stakeholders. In this article, we present the new data set which underwent regional tuning and performance validation against available observations and has data available from 2000 through, depending on the region, 2019–2022. We also provide a summary of the uncertainty quantification in NOW-23, along with NOW-WAKES, a 1-year post-construction data set that quantifies expected offshore wake effects in the US Mid-Atlantic lease areas. Stakeholders can access the NOW-23 data set at https://doi.org/10.25984/1821404 (Bodini et al., 2020).

17 WIND ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2025

Technical and Economic Assessment and Gap Analysis of Advanced Nuclear Reactor Integration with a Reference Methanol Synthesis Plant

Efforts continue to identify the most-economic methods to decarbonize several sectors of the United States (U.S.) economy. Industrial processes such as synfuel synthesis and high value commodity chemicals rely heavily on energy-dense and easily stored and transported fossil fuels, which power and feed their operations. Steam methane reforming (SMR) is a widely used process for producing methanol. In this process, methane (CH 4 ) from natural gas (NG) reacts with steam (H 2 O) over a catalyst at high temperatures (700°1,000°C) to produce syngas, a mixture of hydrogen (H 2 ) and carbon monoxide (CO). The syngas is then converted into methanol (CH 3 OH) through a second catalytic reaction. This method is known for being an efficient and commonly employed pathway for industrial methanol production. The high-temperature heat needed for SMR, which is currently used in the natural-gas-to-methanol process, cannot be supplied by small modular nuclear reactor (SMNR) direct heating; the temperatures required for the SMR process exceed those of the main steam produced by near-market high-temperature gas reactors (HTGRs). For the conventional methanol process, this leaves possible nuclear-integration opportunities that include: (1) blending nuclear hydrogen into the SMR NG fuel, or (2) assessing alternative synthesis routes leveraging nuclear capabilities and steam electrolysis outputs. In the reference methanol plant, SMR provides the methanol-synthesis reactor with H 2 and co. In Case (2), the state-of-the-art reverse water gas shift (RWGS) pathway achieves the same, sourcing carbon from an industrial CO 2 source.

08 - HYDROGEN↗

DOE OSTI2024

Technical and Economic Assessment and Gap Analysis of Advanced Nuclear Reactor Integration with a Reference Methanol Synthesis Plant

Efforts continue to identify the most-economic methods to decarbonize several sectors of the United States (U.S.) economy. Industrial processes such as synfuel synthesis and high value commodity chemicals rely heavily on energy-dense and easily stored and transported fossil fuels, which power and feed their operations. Steam methane reforming (SMR) is a widely used process for producing methanol. In this process, methane (CH 4 ) from natural gas (NG) reacts with steam (H 2 O) over a catalyst at high temperatures (700-1,000°C) to produce syngas, a mixture of hydrogen (H 2 ) and carbon monoxide (CO). The syngas is then converted into methanol (CH 3 OH) through a second catalytic reaction. This method is known for being an efficient and commonly employed pathway for industrial methanol production. The high-temperature heat needed for SMR, which is currently used in the natural-gas-to-methanol process, cannot be supplied by small modular nuclear reactor (SMNR) direct heating; the temperatures required for the SMR process exceed those of the main steam produced by near-market high-temperature gas reactors (HTGRs). For the conventional methanol process, this leaves possible nuclear-integration opportunities that include: (1) blending nuclear hydrogen into the SMR NG fuel, or (2) assessing alternative synthesis routes leveraging nuclear capabilities and steam electrolysis outputs. In the reference methanol plant, SMR provides the methanol-synthesis reactor with H 2 and co. In Case (2), the state-of-the-art reverse water gas shift (RWGS) pathway achieves the same, sourcing carbon from an industrial CO 2 source.

08 HYDROGEN↗

DOE OSTI2023

Enhance BISON Metal Fuel Transient Models and Enable Assessment Based on Out-of-Pile Transient Experiments

In this report, the activities and achievements made by Argonne National Laboratory for the Nuclear Energy Advanced Modeling and Simulation (NEAMS) BISON code metallic fuel validation and verification (V&V) project in FY2023, with a focus on the capability development and assessment case development for the out-of-pile transient experiments, are summarized. The liquid cladding penetration model was improved based on a comprehensive set of fuel behavior test apparatus (FBTA) test results. The new model was implemented into BISON along with a simple model to account for fuel melting effects. The metallic fuel meshing capability was also upgraded to allow local refinement using unstructured triangular mesh. Based on the previous success in developing the BISON-FIPD integration powered BISON assessment case, this database enabled BISON evaluation and V&V capability was expanded to the out-of-pile transient experiments by introducing BISON-OPTD integration. A series of initial out-of-pile transient assessment cases were implemented into BISON to provide powerful platforms to evaluate current BISON’s capabilities in simulating metallic fuel performance during out-of-pile transients. The established capabilities will also benefit the calibration and V&V of future advanced mechanistic models.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

NASA NTRS2006

The Vehicle Integrated Performance Analysis Experience: Reconnecting With Technical Integration

Very early in the Space Launch Initiative program, a small team of engineers at MSFC proposed a process for performing system-level assessments of a launch vehicle. Aimed primarily at providing insight and making NASA a smart buyer, the Vehicle Integrated Performance Analysis (VIPA) team was created. The difference between the VIPA effort and previous integration attempts is that VIPA a process using experienced people from various disciplines, which focuses them on a technically integrated assessment. The foundations of VIPA s process are described. The VIPA team also recognized the need to target early detailed analysis toward identifying significant systems issues. This process is driven by the T-model for technical integration. VIPA s approach to performing system-level technical integration is discussed in detail. The VIPA process significantly enhances the development and monitoring of realizable project requirements. VIPA s assessment validates the concept s stated performance, identifies significant issues either with the concept or the requirements, and then reintegrates these issues to determine impacts. This process is discussed along with a description of how it may be integrated into a program s insight and review process. The VIPA process has gained favor with both engineering and project organizations for being responsive and insightful

McGhee, D. S.↗

DOE OSTI2024

Description of FY25 Theory and Simulation Performance Target: Development of an integrated modeling framework for fusion reactor design and assessment

The urgency to deliver fusion power is growing now more than ever, with increasing pressure for both public programs and private companies to meet milestones timelines and overcome significant remaining technical challenges to ensure growth of a nascent fusion industry in time to meet rapidly growing clean energy demands. With incredible advancements in computation and years of investment in fusion model development and validation, integrated modeling is poised to fill a key role in accelerating the timeline to a fusion pilot plant (FPP). Future fusion pilot plants will operate in regimes far beyond current experience, and device design will rely on physics-based prediction and extrapolation. Many concepts will also rely on simulation to assess safety (shielding, tritium management, materials activation and lifetimes), economics and scalability before the decision to build. Importantly, integrated simulation can be used to reveal and solve the complexities of system integration that may otherwise not be apparent in physical components or models developed in isolation. New experimental test facilities that produce relevant conditions to validate and resolve key technical challenges for various subsystems (materials, blankets, fuel cycle, etc.) have been repeatedly called for by the fusion community but are not yet realized. Integrated modeling has an important role in identifying realistic load conditions (thermal, electromagnetic, plasma, neutron and photon loads, etc.) and defining the components and experiments for these test facilities in order to ensure meaningful validation that sufficiently reduces modeling uncertainties and technical risk for the full integrated reactor. The Fusion REactor Design and Assessment (FREDA) SciDAC project is building a component-based integrated modeling framework & data structure to enable self-consistent, multi-fidelity, iterative optimization workflows for the fusion reactor design process. FREDA aims to shorten the time to viable designs by providing a set of flexible workflows to support the various stages of the design process using an integrated model hierarchy, ranging from the simple analytic descriptions to the highest fidelity, theory-based plasma and engineering modeling developed by the fusion and fission communities. These tools are expected to be needed for timely support of FPP design in the milestone program and in the FIRE collaboratives. The plasma simulation backbone of FREDA is IPS-FASTRAN with newly developed coupled Core-Edge Pedestal-SOL (CESOL) workflows, which is being extended to the far-SOL region up to the plasma facing components. FREDA incorporates the FERMI engineering modeling suite and will enable self-consistent evaluation of the thermal shields, limiters, blanket, magnets, and other surrounding structures with predictions of temperatures, erosion, dpa, activation, tritium generation and transport, creep, corrosion, material degradation, etc. Parametric generation of 3D CAD enables rapid iteration of component geometry in response to plasma and loading specifications.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

DOE OSTI2026

Hydrogeological assessment of CO2 containment assurance and wellbore integrity at a Gulf Coast storage site

Abstract A large-scale carbon capture and storage (CCS) initiative on the Texas Gulf Coast serves as a premier demonstration of the U.S. Department of Energy’s CarbonSAFE program. Targeting deep saline formations, specifically Oligo-Miocene deltaic sequences, the project aims to establish technical and commercial viability for geologic CO2 storage within a major industrial corridor. This study provides a rigorous hydrogeological assessment to support Class VI permitting by quantifying the high degree of containment security. Utilizing a compositional reservoir simulator, we developed a suite of 27 distinct simulation cases to evaluate vertical plume dynamics near both planned injection wells and proximal legacy infrastructure. To ensure numerical accuracy near wellbores, we implemented a refined mesh strategy, determining that a 5.6 ft × 5.6 ft grid refinement offered the optimal balance between computational efficiency and descriptive precision. The modeling framework utilized a systematic sensitivity-based approach to evaluate the mechanical redundancy of the subsurface system by performing a bounding analysis of wellbore interfaces against hypothetical high-permeability microannuli. By systematically isolating competing physical drivers, including permeability, porosity, gas hysteresis, thermal gradients, salinity, and solubility trapping (quantified via Henry’s law with dynamically adjusted coefficients), this work moves beyond binary assessments to establish a nuanced hierarchy of containment factors. The results confirm that primary trapping mechanisms (e.g., gas hysteresis and solubility), combined with the site's unique geomechanical stratigraphy, significantly restrict vertical mobility and reinforce the robust containment security of the reservoir. Baseline results demonstrate substantial vertical separation between the CO2 plume and the upper confining system, ensuring robust containment. Sensitivity analysis reveals that even under highly conservative bounding scenarios—assuming theoretical 10-Darcy pathways at specific wellbore locations—the 2,900-ft thick multi-layered confining zone remains a reliable barrier. In these hypothetical upper-bound cases, peak upward fluxes of CO2 and saltwater after 15 years of injection remain localized and dissipate rapidly within the lower sections of the confining interval, leaving the integrity of the seal uncompromised. Furthermore, the study identifies that while localized wellbore pathways define theoretical upper bounds of vertical migration, the Area of Review (AoR) is primarily sensitive to regional thermal gradients and hysteresis, which can influence the AoR by over 3,000 acres in pessimistic configurations. Also, primary trapping mechanisms, specifically gas hysteresis and solubility, work in tandem with the Gulf Coast’s unique geomechanical stratigraphy to significantly restrict vertical mobility. Ductile, smectite-rich mudstones facilitate natural borehole convergence and the self-healing of potential conduits, creating a natural geomechanical bridge that effectively mitigates migration potential at both current injection points and legacy-well locations. This comprehensive modeling effort demonstrates that the integration of high-resolution wellbore simulations and regional geomechanical observations confirms the long-term storage security of the studied site, providing a physics-based foundation for industrial-scale CCS deployments. This modeling framework establishes a baseline for future research into coupled geomechanical effects, such as time-dependent borehole convergence, to further refine long-term containment projections. Acknowledgements We thank the Gulf Coast Carbon Center (GCCC) at the Bureau of Economic Geology for foundational research support. We appreciate Alex Bump for technical guidance and David Hoffman for model mesh generation. This work used TACC’s Frontera cluster for simulations and CMG Ltd. software licenses provided to UT-Austin. This material is based upon work supported by the Department of Energy under Award Number DE-FE0032338. Disclaimer This material is based upon work supported by the U.S. Department of Energy’s Fossil Energy and Carbon Management Office under the CarbonSAFE program, award Number DE-FE0032338. The views expressed herein do not necessarily represent the views of the U.S. Department of Energy or the United States Government.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2026

Hydrogeological assessment of CO2 containment assurance and wellbore integrity at a Gulf Coast storage site

Abstract A large-scale carbon capture and storage (CCS) initiative on the Texas Gulf Coast serves as a premier demonstration of the U.S. Department of Energy’s CarbonSAFE program. Targeting deep saline formations, specifically Oligo-Miocene deltaic sequences, the project aims to establish technical and commercial viability for geologic CO2 storage within a major industrial corridor. This study provides a rigorous hydrogeological assessment to support Class VI permitting by quantifying the high degree of containment security. Utilizing a compositional reservoir simulator, we developed a suite of 27 distinct simulation cases to evaluate vertical plume dynamics near both planned injection wells and proximal legacy infrastructure. To ensure numerical accuracy near wellbores, we implemented a refined mesh strategy, determining that a 5.6 ft × 5.6 ft grid refinement offered the optimal balance between computational efficiency and descriptive precision. The modeling framework utilized a systematic sensitivity-based approach to evaluate the mechanical redundancy of the subsurface system by performing a bounding analysis of wellbore interfaces against hypothetical high-permeability microannuli. By systematically isolating competing physical drivers, including permeability, porosity, gas hysteresis, thermal gradients, salinity, and solubility trapping (quantified via Henry’s law with dynamically adjusted coefficients), this work moves beyond binary assessments to establish a nuanced hierarchy of containment factors. The results confirm that primary trapping mechanisms (e.g., gas hysteresis and solubility), combined with the site's unique geomechanical stratigraphy, significantly restrict vertical mobility and reinforce the robust containment security of the reservoir. Baseline results demonstrate substantial vertical separation between the CO2 plume and the upper confining system, ensuring robust containment. Sensitivity analysis reveals that even under highly conservative bounding scenarios—assuming theoretical 10-Darcy pathways at specific wellbore locations—the 2,900-ft thick multi-layered confining zone remains a reliable barrier. In these hypothetical upper-bound cases, peak upward fluxes of CO2 and saltwater after 15 years of injection remain localized and dissipate rapidly within the lower sections of the confining interval, leaving the integrity of the seal uncompromised. Furthermore, the study identifies that while localized wellbore pathways define theoretical upper bounds of vertical migration, the Area of Review (AoR) is primarily sensitive to regional thermal gradients and hysteresis, which can influence the AoR by over 3,000 acres in pessimistic configurations. Also, primary trapping mechanisms, specifically gas hysteresis and solubility, work in tandem with the Gulf Coast’s unique geomechanical stratigraphy to significantly restrict vertical mobility. Ductile, smectite-rich mudstones facilitate natural borehole convergence and the self-healing of potential conduits, creating a natural geomechanical bridge that effectively mitigates migration potential at both current injection points and legacy-well locations. This comprehensive modeling effort demonstrates that the integration of high-resolution wellbore simulations and regional geomechanical observations confirms the long-term storage security of the studied site, providing a physics-based foundation for industrial-scale CCS deployments. This modeling framework establishes a baseline for future research into coupled geomechanical effects, such as time-dependent borehole convergence, to further refine long-term containment projections. Acknowledgements We thank the Gulf Coast Carbon Center (GCCC) at the Bureau of Economic Geology for foundational research support. We appreciate Alex Bump for technical guidance and David Hoffman for model mesh generation. This work used TACC’s Frontera cluster for simulations and CMG Ltd. software licenses provided to UT-Austin. This material is based upon work supported by the Department of Energy under Award Number DE-FE0032338. Disclaimer This material is based upon work supported by the U.S. Department of Energy’s Fossil Energy and Carbon Management Office under the CarbonSAFE program, award Number DE-FE0032338. The views expressed herein do not necessarily represent the views of the U.S. Department of Energy or the United States Government.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

NASA NTRS2015

An Integrated Physics-Based Risk Model for Assessing the Asteroid Threat

Although most asteroids and other near-Earth objects (NEOs) do not pose a threat to Earth’s inhabitants, impacts from objects that are just tens of meters in diameter can cause significant damage if they occur over a populated area. This paper forms the foundation of an effort at NASA Ames Research Center to quantify these risks and identify the greatest risk-driving parameters and uncertainties. An integrated risk model that couples dynamic probabilistic simulations of strike occurrences with physics-based models of NEO impact damage factors has been developed to generate casualty estimates for a range of NEO impact properties. Currently, the model focuses on the risk due to blast overpressure damage from airbursts and impacts on land. The model is first used to reproduce results from established sources, and then is extended to perform sensitivity studies that yield greater insights into risk driving parameters. Results show that meteor strength and entry angle play a role for small to mid-size NEOs, and that accounting for the specific target location significantly affects casualty estimates and dominates the risk. Future work will continue to refine and expand the models to better characterize key impact risk factors, include additional types of threats such as tsunamis and climate effects, and ultimately support assessments of potential asteroid mitigation strategies.

Asteroid Threat↗

NASA NTRS1999

The use of multiple indices of physiological activity to access viability in chlorine disinfected Escherichia coli O157:H7

A suite of fluorescent intracellular stains and probes was used, in conjunction with viable plate counts, to assess the effect of chlorine disinfection on membrane potential (rhodamine 123; Rh123 and bis-(1,3-dibutylbarbituric acid) trimethine oxonol; DiBAC4(3)), membrane integrity (LIVE/DEAD BacLight kit), respiratory activity (5-cyano-2,3-ditolyl tetrazolium chloride; CTC) and substrate responsiveness (direct viable counts; DVC) in the commensal pathogen Escherichia coli O157:H7. After a 5 min exposure to the disinfectant, physiological indices were affected in the following order: viable plate counts > substrate responsiveness > membrane potential > respiratory activity > membrane integrity. In situ assessment of physiological activity by examining multiple targets, as demonstrated in this study, permits a more comprehensive determination of the site and extent of injury in bacterial cells following sublethal disinfection with chlorine. This approach to assessing altered bacterial physiology has application in various fields where detection of stressed bacteria is of interest.

NASA Discipline Environmental Health↗

DOE OSTI2024

Idaho National Laboratory Integrated Multisite SSHAC Level 3: Probabilistic Volcanic Hazards Assessment

The Idaho National Laboratory (INL) resides on the eastern Snake River Plain (ESRP), part of the Snake River Plain (SRP) with a complex origin and geologic history of volcanism. Much of the Quaternary (last 2.58 million years) volcanism within 400 km of INL is genetically associated with a major thermal anomaly referred to as the Yellowstone hotspot, which is currently located more than 180 km northeast of INL. Near INL, local volcanic sources include silicic domes near its southern border, and numerous dike-fed basaltic vents of the ESRP, some of which are near or within the INL boundaries. Quantitative probabilistic assessments of screened-in volcanic hazardous phenomena for nine different facility complexes at the INL are presented for a Senior Seismic Hazard Analysis Committee (SSHAC) Level 3 (SL3) study. The comprehensive, integrated multisite SSHAC study consists of a single regional Probabilistic Volcanic Hazards Assessment (PVHA) that pertains to all nine INL facility complexes, with site-specific information developed at each respective area of interest (AOI), referred to as the "INL facility AOI" (Figure ES-1). Hazard products are generated for specified INL facility AOIs for use by multiple stakeholders from different agencies in risk-informed decision-making regarding site selection, operations, and design of nuclear facilities at INL, consistent with U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) and U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) regulatory guidance. The study also serves as the basis for future periodic safety assessments required for existing DOE facilities, such as 10-year evaluations of natural-phenomena hazards. Elements of the INL PVHA including initial characterization, screening, quantitative assessments of eruption and hazard potential, and consideration of facility needs are conducted using the three phases of the SSHAC process: evaluation, integration, and documentation. As per regulatory guidance, the SSHAC framework provided the necessary processes and procedures for the PVHA Technical Integration (TI) team, at three workshops, five formal working meetings and many TI team remote meetings, to conduct initial characterization, screen the volcanic hazards, create PVHA model inputs, exercise those models in the PVHA, consider facility-specific volcanic hazard needs, and perform final hazard calculations. The Participatory Peer Review Panel (PPRP) provided independent oversight and performed process and technical reviews of the PVHA throughout its duration. The study included an extensive New Data Collection and Analyses (NDCA) program developed by the PVHA TI team to reduce uncertainties in hazard-significant elements in the PVHA model. NDCA activities generated 20 reports providing important contributory datasets and results to the project database for characterizing the ESRP. For example, a report compiling the dimensions of ESRP shield volcanoes and lava fields was used to construct volcanic footprints (areas of impact), was compared with data from INL subsurface cores, and was used to validate the results of lava-flow inundation modeling on the contemporary terrain. Another example is the acquisition of aeromagnetic data over INL and its surrounding area, with maps of buried magmatic features (e.g., subsurface volcanoes and swarms of feeder dikes) that informed the PVHA conceptual model of volcanism. The SSHAC evaluation process was used to conduct all elements of the PVHA including initial characterization and screening. Existing data and NDCA activities provided the foundation to develop the tectonomagmatic conceptual model of volcanism for the region of geographical interest in the SRP and Yellowstone hotspot volcanic system, and for considering volcanoes in the western US. Considering Quaternary volcanic sources active during this period, the screening approach identified and evaluated magma compositions, types of eruptive and intrusive phenomena, types of hazardous phenomena, and proximity of sources to INL. The PVHA TI team evaluated 18 types of magmatic sources in terms of 20 potentially hazardous phenomena, resulting in 360 screening decisions. The screening process resulted in 140 screened-in hazardous volcanic phenomena for Quaternary volcanic sources 1) proximal to INL facility complexes in the ESRP (64 basaltic and 54 silicic), 2) regional sources associated with the Yellowstone caldera system and Blackfoot Reservoir volcanic field (7), and 3) more distal sources from thirteen Cascade volcanoes and two volcanoes at Long Valley caldera (CA).

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2025

Technical Background and Validation Report on the Residential Water Inhalation Risk Calculator Presented in the Risk Assessment Information System

Indoor air quality (IAQ) is critical for human health. Poor IAQ is linked to respiratory issues, cardiovascular diseases, and cancer. Indoor pollutants are emitted by typical household items such as cleaning products, personal care items, building materials, and tap water - an understudied volatile organic compound (VOC) source. This document presents the Residential Water Inhalation Risk Calculator (RWIRC), which estimates daily VOC exposure concentrations from various household water uses, such as showering and dishwashing, to assess exposure risks for the most vulnerable occupant. Integrated into the Risk Assessment Information System (RAIS) and sponsored by the US Department of Energy (DOE), the calculator divides a house into three compartments: shower, bathroom, and other spaces, accounting for daily water usage patterns and calculating VOC concentrations. Exposure data generated using the calculator can assist health assessors in estimating excess lifetime cancer risk (ELCR) and hazard index (HI) from VOC inhalation. Unlike traditional exposure models that utilize Andelman’s constant, the RWIRC continuously assesses variability in VOC concentrations and environmental conditions using differential equations to track VOC concentrations and air exchange between compartments. The calculator also provides unique volatilization fractions for each chemical and appliance, enhancing accuracy of the exposure concentration estimation. The RWIRC is accessible online and allows users to customize parameters (i.e., number of bathrooms, water temperature, and exhaust fan conditions) and input VOC characteristics (i.e., tap water and ambient air concentrations). This document provides a step-by-step guide on implementing the calculator. It also provides comparisons with the ATSDR-SHOWER calculator, using eight VOCs with varying physicochemical properties to reveal differences in algorithms and output concentrations. Simulations also assess how bathroom door positions and exhaust fan usage affect VOC exposure. The calculator results can enhance EPA risk screening levels for inhalation exposure to VOCs from tap water, offering a sophisticated tool for assessing inhalation risks and improving public health protection.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Countermeasures for Mitigation of Sensorimotor Decrements Following Head-Down Bed Rest

BACKGROUND Astronauts experience postflight disturbances in postural and locomotor control due to sensorimotor adaptations during spaceflight. These alterations may have adverse consequences if a rapid egress is required after landing. Although exercise is partially effective for mitigating cardiovascular and muscular deconditioning, additional countermeasures are needed to further preserve sensorimotor function for exploration missions. We have identified proprioceptive training and electrical muscle stimulation (EMS) as promising in-flight countermeasures. Since prolonged head down bed rest (HDBR) is a spaceflight analog for body unloading and causes postural and locomotor control decrements that parallel those observed after spaceflight, it can be used to facilitate the development of these countermeasures. METHODS This study will determine the effects of proprioceptive training and EMS on functional task performance and sensorimotor function following 60 days of 6° HDBR. Subjects will be randomly assigned to one of four groups: 1)an EMS arm, 2) a proprioceptive training arm, 3) an exercise plus proprioceptive training arm, and 4) a control arm. The EMS countermeasure will include daily bilateral stimulation of selected bilateral lower extremity muscles (30 minutes per session). Proprioceptive training will be performed three days per week (20 minutes per session) consisting of body-loaded postural tasks in the horizontal position on an air bearing sled. Exercise training will mimic current protocols used on the International Space Station, but treadmill aerobic exercise will be replaced with additional cycling aerobic exercise. Primary outcome measures will include pre and post HDBR functional tests that are representative of high priority exploration mission tasks and require high demand for dynamic control of postural stability. Additional measures will be used to identify the key physiological factors contributing to countermeasure benefits. Given the constrained samples size, a Bayesian modelling approach will be used to quantify the probability that there is an effect of a given magnitude. HARDWARE AND PROTOCOL DEVELOPMENT Proprioceptive countermeasure design enhancements continued as part of the Mars Campaign Office (MCO) Crew Health and Performance (CHP) Crew Health Countermeasures (CHC). The primary goals of this work were to assemble a portable version of the countermeasure system that can be used at the :envihab facility, expand the software feedback system’s capabilities, and develop an actuator loading system that mimics what could be used on the International Space Station. In addition, one major piece of exercise hardware used in previous HDBR studies, the Horizontal Squat Device, was reassembled and restored to full functionality. Human-in-the-loop pilot testing is ongoing, prior to shipping both devices to the :envihab HDBR facility. Evaluations are also underway for the best EMS device technologies and specific methods. Finally, assessment techniques are being translated for administration in the horizontal position (e.g., leg dexterity and foot sole skin sensitivity). Our current goals are to refine the countermeasure training and assessment techniques and integrate protocols across multiple modalities. RELEVANCE The deliverable from this project will be proof-of-concept sensorimotor countermeasure designs for functional task performance with full assessment of efficacy in a spaceflight analog. If one or more countermeasures are effective, they will be translated for validation with the suite of operationally implemented in-flight countermeasures. ACKNOWLEDGEMENT This work is supported by NASA’s Human Research Program Human Health Countermeasures Element and by the Canadian Space Agency (L. Bent).

T R Macaulay↗

NASA NTRS2012

Full-Scale Test and Analysis Results of a PRSEUS Fuselage Panel to Assess Damage Containment Features

Integrally stitched composite technology is an area that shows promise in enhancing the structural integrity of aircraft and aerospace structures. The most recent generation of this technology is the Pultruded Rod Stitched Efficient Unitized Structure (PRSEUS) concept. The goal of the PRSEUS concept relevant to this test is to provide damage containment capability for composite structures while reducing overall structural weight. The National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA), the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA), and The Boeing Company have partnered in an effort to assess the damage containment features of a full-scale curved PRSEUS panel using the FAA Full-Scale Aircraft Structural Test Evaluation and Research (FASTER) facility. A single PRSEUS test panel was subjected to axial tension, internal pressure, and combined axial tension and internal pressure loads. The test results showed excellent performance of the PRSEUS concept. No growth of Barely Visible Impact Damage (BVID) was observed after ultimate loads were applied. With a two-bay notch severing the central stringer, damage was contained within the two-bay region well above the required limit load conditions. Catastrophic failure was well above the ultimate load level. Information describing the test panel and procedure has been previously presented, so this paper focuses on the experimental procedure, test results, nondestructive inspection results, and preliminary test and analysis correlation.

Bergan, Andrew↗