Pressure Monitoring to Detect Fault Rupture Due to CO 2 Injection
The capacity for fault systems to be reactivated by fluid injection is well-known. In the context of CO 2 sequestration, however, the consequence of reactivated faults with respect to leakage and monitoring is poorly understood. Using multi-phase fluid flow simulations, this study addresses key questions concerning the likelihood of ruptures, the timing of consequent upward leakage of CO 2 , and the effectiveness of pressure monitoring in the reservoir and overlying zones for rupture detection. A range of injection scenarios was simulated using random sampling of uncertain parameters. These include the assumed distance between the injector and the vulnerable fault zone, the critical overpressure required for the fault to rupture, reservoir permeability, and the CO 2 injection rate. We assumed a conservative scenario, in which if at any time during the five-year simulations the critical fault overpressure is exceeded, the fault permeability is assumed to instantaneously increase. For the purposes of conservatism we assume that CO 2 injection continues ‘blindly’ after fault rupture. We show that, despite this assumption, in most cases the CO 2 plume does not reach the base of the ruptured fault after 5 years. As a result, one possible implication of this result is that leak mitigation strategies such as pressure management have a reasonable chance of preventing a CO 2 leak.