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At least 703 records · Page 39

Clustering Method and Representative Feeder Selection for the California Solar Initiative

The screening process for DG interconnection procedures needs to be improved in order to increase the PV deployment level on the distribution grid. A significant improvement in the current screening process could be achieved by finding a method to classify the feeders in a utility service territory and determine the sensitivity of particular groups of distribution feeders to the impacts of high PV deployment levels. This report describes the utility distribution feeder characteristics in California for a large dataset of 8,163 feeders and summarizes the California feeder population including the range of characteristics identified and most important to hosting capacity. The report describes the set of feeders that are identified for modeling and analysis as well as feeders identified for the control group. The report presents a method for separating a utility's distribution feeders into unique clusters using the k-means clustering algorithm. An approach for determining the feeder variables of interest for use in a clustering algorithm is also described. The report presents an approach for choosing the feeder variables to be utilized in the clustering process and a method is identified for determining the optimal number of representative clusters.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Dataset of Generative AI Workload Power Profiles

This dataset provides a collection of high-resolution (5/10 Hz or every 0.2/0.1 seconds) power consumption profiles for generative artificial intelligence (GenAI) workloads executed on NLR's High Performance Computing (HPC) platform Kestrel. The dataset also includes examples of representative whole-facility power profiles generated using a bottom-up, event-driven, data center energy model . This dataset is designed to support research in energy modeling, infrastructure planning, energy system integration, and sustainability analysis for AI-driven computing systems. The dataset captures time-resolved electrical power measurements across a diverse set of configurations, including variations in job type (inference vs. training), workload (LLM vs. image generation), datasets, and number of compute nodes. Power traces are provided in a standardized format and include both raw/instantaneous and aggregated files. Each profile is accompanied by metadata describing workload parameters, enabling reproducibility and cross-study comparison. The dataset is intended for use in applications such as data center infrastructure planning, energy modeling, demand response and grid impact studies, and development and validation of system-level simulation tools. By making these workload-specific power profiles publicly available, this dataset aims to address the current lack of open, empirical energy data for generative AI systems and to facilitate transparent, reproducible research on the energy and environmental impacts of large-scale AI deployment. If you use this dataset, please cite the associated publication: Vercellino et al., “Measurement of Generative AI Workload Power Profiles for Whole-Facility Data Center Infrastructure Planning,” arXiv:2604.07345 (2026).

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Simulating Impacts of Extreme Events on Grids with High Penetrations of Wind Power Resources: Preprint

As extreme weather events become more frequent and intense, the demand for connecting grid operation and infrastructure planning with extreme event models will increase as well. We present a methodology for creating damage contingencies and scenarios for electric transmission grids during a hurricane strike. Included is an example case study: Hurricane Dolly damaging a synthetic 2000 bus test system during its landing in Southern Texas. Using WIND Toolkit meteorological data in conjunction with fragility curves for various electric grid elements, we generate stochastic damage scenarios that can be used for short- and long-term planning problems including emergency asset management. We perform statistical analysis of damages and quantify topological effects on example synthetic grid. Also, we investigate loss-of-load events during two-day economic dispatch experiment. Finally, we point out various shortcomings of our method and suggest how it can be improved.

contingencies↗

Sensitivity of Western U.S. power system dynamics to droughts compounded with fuel price variability

The energy sector is heavily dependent on surface water availability for reliable electricity generation. Power system operations are usually evaluated through system reliability and economic perspectives, with assumptions based on market prices and normal water availability. As natural gas technologies continue to dominate new thermal capacity, replacing retiring coal and nuclear generators, natural gas price stability becomes increasingly important and the impact of price volatility on grid operations must be understood. Here, we explore the range of Western Electricity Coordinating Council (WECC) regional power operations, which represents the electric interconnection over the western half of the continental United States, using a production cost model driven by different fuel prices and an integrated hydrology model to simulate historical water availability. Our results show system-wide operation costs increasing in drought years or when gas prices increase, as expected. In addition, we found those system-wide increases can be of the same magnitude. Regional analysis of the responses to compounded droughts and price volatility highlight differences in magnitude and direction depending on regional generation technology portfolios. The Pacific Northwest is most sensitive to drought conditions, Southern California is most sensitive to gas prices, and the Desert Southwest is sensitive to both with the same magnitude. This analysis motivates further research in combined hydrology and power system modeling to characterize regional dynamics and associated uncertainties across scales, which is an important underpinning for the development of more resilient energy and water systems.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Surface Sampling Techniques for the Canister Deposition Field Demonstration

This report describes plans for dust sampling and analysis for the multi-year Canister Deposition Field Demonstration. The demonstration will use three commercial 32PTH2 NUHOMS welded stainless steel storage canisters, which will be stored at an ISFSI site in Advanced Horizontal Storage Modules. One canister will be unheated; the other two will have heaters to achieve canister surface temperatures that match, to the degree possible, spent nuclear fuel (SNF) loaded canisters with heat loads of 10 kW and 40 kW. Surface sampling campaigns will take place on a yearly or bi-yearly basis. The goal of the planned dust sampling and analysis is to determine important environmental parameters that impact the potential occurrence of stress corrosion cracking on SNF dry storage canisters. Specifically, the size, morphology, and composition of the deposited dust and salt particles will be quantified, as well as the soluble salt load per unit area and the rate of deposition, as a function of canister surface temperature, location, time, and orientation. Sampling locations on the canister surface will nominally include 25 locations, corresponding to 5 circumferential locations at each of the 5 longitudinal locations. At each sampling location, a 2x2 sampling grid (containing 4 sample cells) will be painted onto the metal surface. During each sampling campaign, two samples at each sampling location will be collected, in a specific routine to measure both periodic (yearly or bi-yearly) and cumulative deposition rates. For each sample, a wet and a dry sample will be collected. Wet samples will be analyzed to determine the composition of the soluble salt fraction and to estimate salt loading per unit area. Dry samples will be analyzed to assess particle size, morphology, mineralogy, and identity (e.g. for floral/faunal fragments). The data generated by this proposed sampling plan will provide detailed information on dust and salt aerosol deposits on spent nuclear fuel canister surfaces. The anticipated results include information regarding particle compositions, size distributions, and morphologies, in addition to particle deposition rates as a function of canister surface location, orientation, time, and temperature. The information gathered during the Canister Deposition Field Demonstration is critical for ongoing efforts to develop a detailed understanding of the potential for stress corrosion cracking on SNF dry storage canisters

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

Valuing Resilience Benefits of Microgrids for an Interconnected Island Distribution System

Extreme climate-driven events such as hurricanes, floods, and wildfires are becoming more intense in areas exposed to these threats, requiring approaches to improve the resilience of the electrical infrastructure serving these communities. Long-duration outages caused by such high impact events propagate to economic, health, and social consequences for communities. As essential service providers, electric utilities are mandated to provide safe, economical and reliable electricity to their customers. The public is becoming less tolerant to these more frequent disruptions, especially in view of technological advances that are intended to improve power quality, reliability and resilience. One promising solution is state-of-the-art microgrids and the advanced controls employed therein. This paper presents and demonstrates an approach to technoeconomic analysis that can be used to value the avoided economic consequences of grid resilience investments, as applied to the islands of Vieques and Culebra in Puerto Rico. This valuation methodology can support policies to incorporate resilience value into any investment decision-making process, especially those which serve the public interest.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

High-spatial-resolution passive microwave sounding systems

The principal contributions of this combined theoretical and experimental effort were to advance and demonstrate new and more accurate techniques for sounding atmospheric temperature, humidity, and precipitation profiles at millimeter wavelengths, and to improve the scientific basis for such soundings. Some of these techniques are being incorporated in both research and operational systems. Specific results include: (1) development of the MIT Microwave Temperature Sounder (MTS), a 118-GHz eight-channel imaging spectrometer plus a switched-frequency spectrometer near 53 GHz, for use on the NASA ER-2 high-altitude aircraft, (2) conduct of ER-2 MTS missions in multiple seasons and locations in combination with other instruments, mapping with unprecedented approximately 2-km lateral resolution atmospheric temperature and precipitation profiles, atmospheric transmittances (at both zenith and nadir), frontal systems, and hurricanes, (3) ground based 118-GHz 3-D spectral images of wavelike structure within clouds passing overhead, (4) development and analysis of approaches to ground- and space-based 5-mm wavelength sounding of the upper stratosphere and mesosphere, which supported the planning of improvements to operational weather satellites, (5) development of improved multidimensional and adaptive retrieval methods for atmospheric temperature and humidity profiles, (6) development of combined nonlinear and statistical retrieval techniques for 183-GHz humidity profile retrievals, (7) development of nonlinear statistical retrieval techniques for precipitation cell-top altitudes, and (8) numerical analyses of the impact of remote sensing data on the accuracy of numerical weather predictions; a 68-km gridded model was used to study the spectral properties of error growth.

Staelin, D. H.↗

The value of hydropower flexibility for electricity system decarbonization

Hydropower is an abundant, dispatchable, clean energy resource that will play an important role in supporting the clean energy transition. In particular, dispatchable hydropower can provide the operational flexibility that will be required in future systems with high variable renewable energy penetrations. However, the theoretical operational flexibility of hydropower can be restricted in practice by various non-power constraints. In this paper, we quantify how increasing the operational flexibility of dispatchable hydropower resources with reservoirs impacts least-cost generation portfolios and supports power system decarbonization. Specifically, we conduct a capacity expansion analysis of a two-zone system: a hydro-dominated region and a neighboring region with aggressive decarbonization targets that are represented by the United States Pacific Northwest and California respectively. We then introduce a quantifiable index for characterizing the operational flexibility of reservoir hydropower and assess how changes in this metric impact the system-optimal generation portfolio. We find that increasing hydropower flexibility leads to more investment in wind generation, less investment in natural gas generation, lower system costs, and lower system emissions. We further demonstrate a substitution effect between the grid services provided by flexible hydropower operation, increased transmission capacity on a congested line, and energy storage resources. Finally, we show that increasing the operational flexibility of hydropower increases the effective load carrying capability of both hydropower and wind resources. This research supports a more nuanced understanding of how hydropower can support electricity system decarbonization and may motivate reassessing the cost-benefit tradeoffs of non-power constraints that restrict operational flexibility.

Capacity expansion modeling↗

RU-net for automatic characterization of TRISO fuel cross sections

During irradiation, phenomena such as kernel swelling and buffer densification may impact the performance of tristructural isotropic (TRISO) particle fuel. Post-irradiation microscopy is often used to identify these irradiation-induced morphologic changes. However, each fuel compact generally contains thousands of TRISO particles. Manually performing the work to get statistical information on these phenomena is cumbersome and subjective. Here, to reduce the subjectivity inherent in that process and to accelerate data analysis, we used convolutional neural networks (CNNs) to automatically segment cross-sectional images of microscopic TRISO layers. CNNs are a class of machine-learning algorithms specifically designed for processing structured grid data. They have gained popularity in recent years due to their remarkable performance in various computer vision tasks, including image classification, object detection, and image segmentation. In this research, we generated a large irradiated TRISO layer dataset with more than 2,000 microscopic images of cross-sectional TRISO particles and the corresponding annotated images. Based on these annotated images, we used different CNNs to automatically segment different TRISO layers. These CNNs include RU-Net (developed in this study), as well as three existing architectures: U-Net, Residual Network (ResNet), and Attention U-Net. The preliminary results show that the model based on RU-Net performs best in terms of Intersection over Union (IoU). Using CNN models, we can expedite the analysis of TRISO particle cross sections, significantly reducing the manual labor involved and improving the objectivity of the segmentation results.

11 - NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

Development of a Hardware-in-The-Loop Testbed for a Decentralized, Data-Driven Electric Vehicle Charging Control Algorithm

This study presents the design of an electric vehicle (EV)-grid integration (EVGI) hardware test-bed to implement smart EV charging algorithms. Here, the proposed test-bed also allows to create different grid events via flexible integration of other power hardware (e.g., controllable loads and battery energy storage systems) and test their impacts on EV charging. The design uses a real-time digital simulator to realize a complex distribution grid model with primary and secondary networks. A grid simulator physically realizes the selected nodes of the simulated grid to power an actual EV, forming a hardware-in-the-loop (HIL) test setup. The EV-grid integration is demonstrated based on the custom hardware and software implementation of the J1772 charging protocol using dSPACE MicroLabBox, operating as a custom EV Supply Equipment (EVSE). The HIL test-bed features a novel testing platform for accurate implementation and analysis of scalable charging algorithms. To this end, a data-driven, decentralized, model-free charging controller based on the Additive Increase and Multiplicative Decrease (AIMD) algorithm is presented and validated on an EV using the HIL test-bed. We tested the proposed algorithm under various case studies, and presented a comparison study with an existing droop-based, decentralized charging solution. The results showed that the EV successfully performed charging commands generated by the EVSE and regulated its charging power to effectively reduce the system loading caused by high EV penetration.

33 ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS↗

Overcoming the Technical Challenges of Coordinating Distributed Load Resources at Scale (Final Report)

Significant recent research has investigated the potential for loads to provide balancing services to the grid. However, this research has not addressed key issues that may arise when such schemes are applied at scale including: 1. Distribution Network Issues. Coordination of large numbers of loads could result in power flows that violate distribution network constraints; 2. Stability Issues. Certain strategies to control loads can exhibit nonlinearity in the form of period-adding bifurcations and chaos. Other control strategies can potentially synchronize the behavior of large numbers of loads. In both cases, the outcome can be power oscillations and instability; 3. Communication Network Issues. Bidirectional low-latency communication channels between a central controller (or several distributed controllers) and each resource are expensive and likely not necessary for effective coordination. Our research questions were: What network, stability, and communication issues might arise in practice when we coordinate large aggregations of loads? How can we coordinate loads to achieve performance objectives in a cost effective manner while avoiding these issues? The ultimate technical goal of the project was the development of network-aware, communication-constrained, non-disruptive load control strategies with stability guarantees that achieve the performance requirements of typical balancing services at a sufficiently low cost to enable the load aggregator and customer to profit. The overall goal was to establish credibility for load control at scale and contribute to U.S. energy security and environmental goals. The team succeeded in answering these research questions and developing these control strategies. The overall approach was based on the development of three testing environments: a simulation testbed, an experimental testbed (20 physical model houses with window-box air conditioners) coupled with the simulation testbed, and a field testbed (100 actual homes in Austin, TX) coupled with the simulation testbed, which enabled controller testing, identification of issues, controller development, and controller validation. The resulting controller was used to demonstrate fast timescale grid balancing (frequency regulation) by aggregations of physical and virtual air conditioners, with sufficient quality to participate in the electricity market. Cost benefit analysis showed overall benefits to the participating households, load aggregators, and the grid, especially if the control technology was integrated directly into existing programmable communicating thermostats. The project provides a variety of wider benefits. Our technology transfer and outreach activities lead us to choose an open-source licensing commercialization pathway, enabling the project results to be available to researchers, industry, and the public. Furthermore, new grid balancing technologies will increase grid flexibility and will enable higher penetrations of intermittent renewable energy resources, such as wind and solar, to be connected to the grid, reducing its environmental impact, and mitigating climate change to the benefit of society.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

Global Top-Down Smoke-Aerosol Emissions Estimation Using Satellite Fire Radiative Power Measurements

Fire emissions estimates have long been based on bottom-up approaches that are not only complex, but also fraught with compounding uncertainties. We present the development of a global gridded (1 deg ×1 deg) emission coefficients (Ce) product for smoke total particulate matter (TPM) based on a top-down approach using coincident measurements of fire radiative power (FRP) and aerosol optical thickness (AOT) from the Moderate-resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) sensors aboard the Terra and Aqua satellites. This new Fire Energetics and Emissions Research version 1.0 (FEER.v1) Ce product has now been released to the community and can be obtained from http://feer.gsfc. nasa.gov/, along with the corresponding 1-to-1 mapping of their quality assurance (QA) flags that will enable the Ce values to be filtered by quality for use in various applications. The regional averages of Ce values for different ecosystem types were found to be in the ranges of 16-21/gMJ−1 for savanna and grasslands, 15-32/gMJ−1 for tropical forest, 9-12/gMJ−1 for North American boreal forest, and 18- 26/MJ−1 for Russian boreal forest, croplands and natural vegetation. The FEER.v1 Ce product was multiplied by time-integrated FRP data to calculate regional smoke TPM emissions, which were compared with equivalent emissions products from three existing inventories. FEER.v1 showed higher and more reasonable smoke TPM estimates than two other emissions inventories that are based on bottom-up approaches and already reported in the literature to be too low, but portrayed an overall reasonable agreement with another top-down approach. This suggests that top-down approaches may hold better promise and need to be further developed to accelerate the reduction of uncertainty associated with fire emissions estimation in air-quality and climate research and applications. Results of the analysis of FEER.v1 data for 2004-2011 show that 65-85 Tg yr−1 of TPM is emitted globally from open biomass burning, with a generally decreasing trend over this short time period. The FEER.v1 Ce product is the first global gridded product in the family of "emission factors", that is based essentially on satellite measurements, and requires only direct satellite FRP measurements of an actively burning fire anywhere to evaluate its emission rate in near-real time, which is essential for operational activities, such as the monitoring and forecasting of smoke emission impacts on air quality.

biomass burning↗

Updraft Dynamics and Microphysics: On the Added Value of the Cumulus Thermal Reference Frame in Simulations of Aerosol–Deep Convection Interactions

One fundamental question about atmospheric moist convection processes that remains debated is whether or under what conditions a relevant variability in background aerosol concentrations may have a significant dynamical impact on convective clouds and their associated precipitation. Furthermore, current climate models must parameterize both the microphysical and the cumulus convection processes, but this is usually implemented separately, whereas in nature there is a strong coupling between them. As a first step to improve our understanding of these two problems, we investigate how aerosol concentrations modify key properties of updrafts in eight large-eddy permitting regional simulations of a case study of scattered convection over Houston, Texas, in which convection is explicitly simulated and microphysical processes are parameterized. Dynamical and liquid-phase microphysical responses are investigated using two different reference frames: static cloudy-updraft grid cells versus tracked cumulus thermals. In both frameworks we observe the expected microphysical responses to higher aerosol concentrations, such as higher cloud number concentrations and lower rain number concentrations. In terms of the dynamical responses, both frameworks indicate weak impacts of varying aerosol concentrations relative to the noise between simulations over the observationally derived range of aerosol variability for this case study. On the other hand, results suggest that thermals are more selective than cloudy-updraft grid cells in terms of sampling the most active convective air masses. For instance, vertical velocity from thermals is significantly higher at upper levels than when sampled from cloudy-updraft grid points, and several microphysical variables have higher average values in the cumulus thermal framework than in the cloudy-updraft framework. In addition, the thermal analysis is seen to add rich quantitative information about the rates and covariability of microphysical processes spatially and throughout tracked thermal lifecycles, which can serve as a stronger foundation for improving subgrid-scale parameterizations.

Daniel Hernandez-Deckers↗

Supporting the Transition from Grid-Scale to Emerging Market Wave Energy Converter Design and Assessment

In the past decade there has been increasing interest in emerging markets for wave energy, both as a stepping stone for development and as a way to create new opportunities for offshore markets such as ocean observation or desalination. Developers who were once focused exclusively on grid-scale development have begun to engage with more unique markets. This has led researchers to begin examining means of assessing emerging-market devices. In this paper, we analyze the Technology Performance Level (TPL) Assessment for its potential use in the assessment of emerging market wave energy converters (EM-WECs). We use Quality Function Deployment (QFD) and a question-by-question analysis of the TPL assessment to determine the changes necessary for such an assessment to be applicable in emerging markets. We discuss how the primary differences between the markets could impact the viable development pathways for developers hoping to succeed in multiple markets. We determine that the different stakeholders and stakeholder requirements of some emerging markets compared to gridscale applications should be met with changes to cost-toperformance metrics, prototype testing processes, recovery planning, materials selection, optimization objectives, and public engagement.

blue economy↗

The Evolving Nature of Grid Energy

Current trends in the electricity sector, including more variable renewable energy, electrification of transportation and other end-uses, and city and state-level clean electricity goals, impact our expectations for grid costs and emission rates out into the future. This talk provides an overview of where the grid is and where it is heading, and introduces new data sets under development at NREL that are aimed at enabling conversation between grid and built-environment planning and design.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Evaluation of CMIP6 models in simulating the statistics of extreme precipitation over Eastern Africa

We report the Eastern Africa region experiences frequent extreme precipitation events that can cause destruction of property and environment, and loss of lives. Thus, there is a need to understand how these events may change in the future and how well the global climate models that are used to make projections can simulate precipitation extremes in this region before they can be used in downscaling or flood and drought impact assessment studies. In this work, we evaluated the ability of sixteen Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) models to simulate present-day precipitation extremes over the Eastern Africa region during the two rainy seasons (March–May and September–November). We used nine extreme precipitation indices (including seven (one) indices of wet (dry) extremes) defined by the Expert Team on Climate Change Detection and Indices. The CMIP6 models were evaluated against two gridded observation datasets: Global Precipitation Climatology Project One-Degree Daily Dataset and Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission Multi-satellite Precipitation Analysis 3B42. Three model performance metrics (percentage bias, normalized root-mean-square error, and pattern correlation coefficient) were employed to further assess the strengths and weakness of the models. Our results show that the multi-model ensemble mean generally provides a better representation of observed precipitation and related extremes compared to individual models when considering all metrics and seasons. Several consistent biases are evident across CMIP6 models, which tend to overestimate the total-wet day precipitation and consecutive wet days, and underestimate very wet days and maximum 5-day precipitation in both seasons. Furthermore, no single model consistently performs best, model performance varies with the season and index under consideration and is generally independent of horizontal resolution.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

SIMPLE-G: A multiscale framework for integration of economic and biophysical determinants of sustainability

We introduce SIMPLE-G, a Simplified International Model of agricultural Prices, Land use, and the Environment- Gridded version, which is a novel tool for evaluating sustainability policies in a global context while factoring in local heterogeneity in land and water resources and natural ecosystem services. This multi-scale model can provide boundary conditions for local decision makers, as well as capturing feedback from local policies to national and global scales. Additionally, to illustrate its value in environmental analysis, we provide two applications of the model. First, we quantify the local stresses on land and water resources due to global changes in population, income, and productivity. Second, we quantify the global impacts of local policy responses and adaptations to water scarcity.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Probabilistic Resilience of DER Systems - A Simulation Assisted Optimization Approach

Energy systems resilience is becoming increasingly important as the frequency of major grid outages increases. In this work, we present a methodology to optimize a behind-tlie-meter distributed energy resource system to sustain a site's critical loads during a pre-defined outage period. With the fixed system design, we then propose an outage simulation approach to estimate the resilience potential of the DER system to sustain loads beyond the fixed outage period - a yearlong resilience performance analysis. We apply statistical analysis to assess the system's resilience performance over a broader parametric problem space on an hourly, monthly, and yearly basis. We demonstrate the impact of the pre-defined outage period on the resilience performance through a case study. Results show that the probability of surviving a random outage of a given duration changes from 20% to 95% when the outage is modeled for a weekday instead of a weekend for the given load-profile.

28 EE - Advanced Manufacturing Office (EE-5A)↗