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At least 703 records · Page 39
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2025

The global Sahel monsoon ocean-pressure index reconciles its regional and large-scale features

Monitoring Sahelian rainfall variability is increasingly critical as climate extremes intensify across the region. Here, we develop the Sahelian Monsoon Ocean-Pressure Index (SMOPI), a novel global synthetic indicator constructed from five dynamically coherent sea-level pressure regions statistically linked to June-September Sahel monsoon rainfall. SMOPI captures intra-seasonal and interannual variability, and crucially, reflects the influence of both regional processes and large-scale teleconnections on monsoon dynamics. It aligns with the dominant rainfall variability mode in reanalyses and 29 CMIP6 models. Strong/positive SMOPI phases coincide with wet years and are associated with enhanced convergence, favorable jet configurations, and robust Pacific, Atlantic, and Indian Ocean teleconnections. Conversely, weak/negative SMOPI phases correspond to drought conditions and divergent moisture fluxes. SMOPI exposes model failures in reproducing historical droughts and offers new physical insights into rainfall-driving mechanisms. It stands out as a scalable, potentially transferable diagnostic tool for monitoring/forecasting and evaluating Sahelian monsoon rainfall under global warming.

Tamoffo, Alain T. [Helmholtz-Zentrum Hereon GmbH, ↗
DOE OSTI2024

Electric light-duty vehicles have decarbonization potential but may not reduce other environmental problems

Electric vehicles are promoted as ‘clean’ technologies and offer promising reductions in transportation emissions. Nevertheless, their environmental benefits critically depend on the local electricity grid mix and the type of emission being considered. Here, we conduct a comparative life cycle assessment of the four dominant light-duty vehicle categories at both the global scale and in three representative countries: Norway, the US, and China. By analyzing different environmental indicators, particularly global warming potential and respiratory effects, and quantifying related parametric uncertainties, we reveal that the advantages of electric vehicles vary across these regions and across environmental impact types. While electric vehicles offer considerable decarbonization potential as the grid mix becomes cleaner, they might not mitigate other environmental impacts, such as increased respiratory effects on rural, low-income communities. Our results support stakeholders in identifying environmentally friendly vehicle and policy options while considering multiple factors, and emphasize the importance of tailored approaches over one-size-fits-all solutions in sustainable transportation.

33 ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS↗
DOE OSTI2025

Projected changes in African easterly wave activity due to climate change

African easterly waves significantly influence regional hydroclimate, making it crucial to understand how global warming will impact their activity. Here, we investigate future changes in wave activity and assess the underlying mechanisms using an ensemble of Earth system models. We find a robust increase in wave activity over the Sahel–Sahara region by the end of the 21st century under two emission scenarios. This intensification is linked to increased baroclinicity associated with a strengthening of the meridional temperature gradient between the Guinea Coast and the Sahara. Our results also indicate that low-level warming enhances the waves by reinforcing monsoon flow, leading to increased convergence and vertical motion along the intertropical discontinuity. These energetic alterations significantly modify the conditions that currently produce these waves. Overall, our findings suggest that changes in wave activity could impact the transport of Saharan dust and mesoscale convective activity over the Sahel.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Nature-based climate solutions can help mitigate the radiative forcing that follows deforestation

Widespread expansion of agriculture and forestry has altered the surface of the Earth, the composition of the atmosphere, and as a result, the climate. Here we quantify the radiative forcing caused by the historical deforestation of an ecoregion in the U.S. Upper Midwest and the adoption of eight nature-based climate solutions. We combined regional forest inventory data with over three decades of remote sensing and in situ data from a replicated land use change experiment. Deforestation of the region caused net global warming (1626 ± 44 µW m -2 ), mainly from the 76 % reduction of ecosystem carbon stocks, but also from the 84 % reduction of the soil methane sink and the 115 % increase in soil nitrous oxide emissions. The associated albedo increase offset 24 % of this greenhouse gas induced warming. For the adoption of nature-based climate solutions, we found that conservation agriculture can provide -39 to -76 ± 31 µW m -2 of climate mitigation over a 100-year time period while short/medium length forestry rotations can provide more at -296 to -881 ± 44 µW m -2 and natural forest regeneration can provide the most at -1555 ± 44 µW m -2 . As the impacts of climate change on nature and society intensify, consideration should be given to the climate mitigation, habitat, and ecosystem services that nature-based climate solutions can provide.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Divergent responses of historic rain-on-snow flood extremes to a warmer climate

Global warming is altering flood risks induced by rain-on-snow events. However, decision-makers lack guidance on how rain-on-snow induced extreme floods could be altered with warming. Here, storyline analyses using a kilometer-scale land surface model reveal diverse responses of four historically-impactful, decision-relevant rain-on-snow induced extreme flood events over the contiguous U.S. to warming, due to alterations in their water budgets. For the 2017-Feb California floods, runoff first increases and then decreases with warming, peaking under the +3 K scenario, while runoff of the 2017-Jan California floods increases monotonically by ~53%/K. Contrastingly, runoff of the 1996-Jan Mid-Atlantic floods decreases gradually with warming. Despite these differences, warming generally shifts flood-generating regimes along elevation profiles. High elevations could experience notably increased runoff, while low elevations encounter a shift from rain-on-snow-driven to rainfall-dominated runoff. These findings underscore the need for flood control planning to quantify region- and elevation-specific changes in rain-on-snow events in a warmer climate.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Phenotypic plasticity of fungal traits in response to moisture and temperature

Phenotypic plasticity of traits is commonly measured in plants to improve understanding of organismal and ecosystem responses to climate change but is far less studied for microbes. Specifically, decomposer fungi are thought to display high levels of phenotypic plasticity and their functions have important implications for ecosystem dynamics. Assessing the phenotypic plasticity of fungal traits may therefore be important for predicting fungal community response to climate change. Here, we assess the phenotypic plasticity of 15 fungal isolates (12 species) from a Southern California grassland. Fungi were incubated on litter at five moisture levels (ranging from 4–50% water holding capacity) and at five temperatures (ranging from 4–36 °C). After incubation, fungal biomass and activities of four extracellular enzymes (cellobiohydrolase (CBH), β -glucosidase (BG), β -xylosidase (BX), and N-acetyl- β - D -glucosaminidase (NAG)) were measured. We used response surface methodology to determine how fungal phenotypic plasticity differs across the moisture-temperature gradient. We hypothesized that fungal biomass and extracellular enzyme activities would vary with moisture and temperature and that the shape of the response surface would vary between fungal isolates. We further hypothesized that more closely related fungi would show more similar response surfaces across the moisture-temperature gradient. In support of our hypotheses, we found that plasticity differed between fungi along the temperature gradient for fungal biomass and for all the extracellular enzyme activities. Plasticity also differed between fungi along the moisture gradient for BG activity. These differences appear to be caused by variation mainly at the moisture and temperature extremes. We also found that more closely related fungi had more similar extracellular enzymes activities at the highest temperature. Altogether, this evidence suggests that with global warming, fungal biodiversity may become increasingly important as functional traits tend to diverge along phylogenetic lines at higher temperatures.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Bioproducts from high-protein algal biomass: An economic and environmental sustainability review and risk analysis

This report has High-protein algal biomass as an important bio-commodity that has the potential to provide a new source of sustainable protein products. Herein is a critical review that identifies 1) the most relevant sustainability findings related to the processing of proteinaceous algal biomass to higher value protein products and 2) the potential pathways to improve life cycle assessment (LCA) and techno-economic analysis (TEA) metrics, including life-cycle carbon dioxide equivalent (CO 2 eq), life cycle energy, and minimum selling price (MSP) of these products. The critical review of the literature revealed a large variation in model input parameters relating to these metrics. Therefore, a Monte Carlo analysis was conducted to assess the risk associated with these input variations. To understand the uncertainties that propagate into high-protein algae to products’ systems, we reviewed more than 20 state-of-the-art unit operations for algal biomass processing., including cell disruption, protein solubilization, protein precipitation and purification, and protein concentration. We evaluated displacement of proteinaceous products by algal-bioproducts, including ruminant feed, aquaculture feed, protein tablets, and biopolymers and biopolyesters, with prices in the market ranging from 1.9 to 120 $\$$ kg -1 protein. This review realized that the MSP of ruminant and non-ruminant feed ranges from 0.65±0.56 to 2.9±1.1 $\$$ kg -1 protein, and bioplastics’ MSP ranges from 0.97 to 7.0 $\$$ kg -1 protein. Regarding LCA metrics, there is limited research on life cycle energy in proteinaceous biomass concentration and bioproduct systems, reported at 32.7 MJ kg protein -1 , for animal feed displacement. Animal feed emissions in the literature report negative fluxes, representing environmental benefits, as low as -3.7 kgCO 2 eq kg -1 protein and positive fluxes, i.e., global warming potential, as high as 12.8 kgCO 2 eq kg -1 protein. There is limited research on bioplastics life cycle emissions reported at 0.6 kgCO 2 eq kg -1 protein. In general, the studies to date of algae-derived protein bioproducts showed similar life cycle emissions to soybean meals, nylon, polymers, and polystyrenes. Our risk analysis realized that more than 50% of scenarios can result in negative-net life cycle CO 2 eq emissions. This review and risk analysis assess and demonstrate the scenarios that improve economic and environmental sustainability metrics in high-protein algal bioproducts systems.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗
DOE OSTI2023

Accurate prediction of carbon dioxide capture by deep eutectic solvents using quantum chemistry and a neural network

Carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) emissions from fossil fuel combustion are a significant source of greenhouse gas, contributing in a major way to global warming and climate change. Carbon dioxide capture and sequestration is gaining much attention as a potential method for controlling these greenhouse gas emissions. Among the environmentally friendly solvents, deep eutectic solvents (DESs) have demonstrated the potential capability for carbon capture. To establish a theoretical framework for DES activity, thermodynamics modeling and solubility predictions are significant factors to anticipate and understand the system behavior. Here, in this study, we combine the COSMO-RS model with machine learning techniques to predict the solubility of CO 2 in various deep eutectic solvents. A comprehensive data set was established comprising 1973 CO 2 solubility data points in 132 different DESs at a variety of temperatures, pressures, and DES molar ratios. This data set was then utilized for the further verification and development of the COSMO-RS model. The CO 2 solubility (ln(x CO 2 )) in DESs calculated with the COSMO-RS model differs significantly from the experiment with an average absolute relative deviation (AARD) of 23.4%. A multilinear regression model was developed using the COSMO-RS predicted solubility and a temperature-pressure dependent parameter, which improved the AARD to 12%. Finally, a machine learning model using COSMO-RS-derived features was developed based on an artificial neural network algorithm. The results are in excellent agreement with the experimental CO 2 solubilities, with an AARD of only 2.72%. The ML model will be a potentially useful tool for the design and selection of DESs for CO 2 capture and utilization.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2023

A General Binary Isotherm Model for Amines Interacting with CO 2 and H 2 O

CO 2 capture by primary or secondary amines has been of great research interests for a century because of its industrial importance. Interest has grown even more, because of the need to eliminate the CO 2 emissions that drive global warming. Experimental evidence shows that CO 2 sorption in primary or secondary amines is accompanied by co-absorption of H 2 O. A quantitative analysis of such CO 2 -H 2 O co-absorption behavior is important for practical process design and theoretical understanding. Even though there is almost an experimental consensus that water enhances CO 2 uptake capacity, an analytic model to explain this phenomenon is not well established. Instead, some empirical models such as the Toth model are used to describe the isotherm without accounting for the presence of water. Recently, we have demonstrated that the isotherm equation of CO 2 sorption into strong-base anion exchange materials with quaternary ammonium can be derived from that of strong-base aqueous alkaline solutions by correcting for the drastic change in water activity and by including an appropriate parameterization of the water activity terms. In this paper, we generalize this model from quaternary ammonium to primary, secondary and tertiary amines either in solutions or as functional groups in polymer resins. For primary, secondary and tertiary amines, the isotherm equation can be derived by extending that of a weak-base aqueous alkaline solution such as aqueous ammonia. The model has been validated using experimental data of aqueous ammonia in literature. Furthermore, this general model even includes quaternary ammonium as a special limit. Hence, this general model offers a platform that can treat the isotherms of solid amines, aqueous amines and aqueous alkaline solutions in a unified way.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2023

High-performance Ruddlesden–Popper perovskite oxide with in situ exsolved nanoparticles for direct CO 2 electrolysis

Carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) is one of the principal greenhouse gases accountable for global warming and extreme climate changes. Electrochemically converting CO 2 into carbon monoxide (CO) is a promising approach for CO 2 utilization in achieving industrial decarbonization. High-temperature CO 2 electrolysis via solid oxide electrolysis cells (SOECs) has great potential, including high-energy efficiency, fast electrode kinetics, and competitive cost; however, this technology still has challenges associated with developing highly active, robust CO 2 electrodes for SOECs. We report novel Ruddlesden–Popper structured Pr 1.2 Sr 0.8 Mn 0.4 Fe 0.6 O 4–δ (RP-PSMF) with in situ exsolved Fe nanoparticles as the CO 2 electrode in SOECs for direct CO 2 conversion to CO. The mechanism of CO 2 electrolysis is studied by using the distribution of relaxation times method from electrochemical impedance spectroscopy. La 0.8 Sr 0.2 Ga 0.8 Mg 0.2 O 3–δ (LSGM)-electrolyte supported SOECs with the RP-PSMF cathode have achieved exceptionally high current densities of 2.90, 1.61, 0.91, and 0.48 A·cm –2 at an applied voltage of 1.5 V at 800, 750, 700, and 650 °C, respectively. Moreover, SOECs with the RP-PSMF cathode have exhibited a stable electrolysis performance for 100 h under a current cycling operation. Here, these results suggest that RP-PSMF with exsolved Fe nanoparticles is a highly promising cathode for high-temperature direct CO 2 electrolysis cells.

03 NATURAL GAS↗
DOE OSTI2023

Light-driven hydrogen evolution via a novel pincer/no pincer mechanism including a possible concerted proton electron transfer

The road to efficient molecular catalysts for artificial photosynthesis requires a great deal of basic research to address the challenges of anthropogenic global warming. An unexpected result of such research is a novel pincer/no pincer mechanism discovered for the DFT-calculated catalytic cycle of PNP-C2 complexes. Structural parameters from theoretical modeling are supported by single crystal X-ray data for the corresponding complexes. Using the examples of [M(II)Cl(PNP-C2-R)] + (M = Pd 2+ , Ni 2+ ; R = CH 3 , H; PNP-C2 = N,N-bis{(di(2-methoxy-phenyl)phosphanyl)ethyl}-N-alkylamine) this pincer/no pincer mechanism is supported by differential pulse voltammetric, cyclic voltammetric, UV-Vis spectroscopic (combined with voltammetry) and 31 P nuclear magnetic resonance spectroscopic studies. The efficiency of hydrogen evolution during artificial photosynthesis depends significantly on the ratio of photosensitiser and water reduction catalysts. At first sight, the results from irradiation experiments (gas chromatography and mass spectrometry) seem obvious, but show a considerable impact of secondary and tertiary amines within the pincer structure. The best result obtained for the palladium pincer complex was with a secondary amine as a proton relay, delivering a turnover number of 2237 after only 2.5 hours. In contrast the analogous water reduction catalyst with a methylated (tertiary) amine instead of a secondary one gives only 972 turnovers under the same experimental conditions, over the same time. For all photocatalytic measurements the amount of hydrogen is approximately 2.5-times higher when a secondary amine is used as the proton relay. The influences of these different amines on the activity of water reduction catalysts during irradiation experiments in H 2 O or D 2 O lead to evidence of a kinetic isotope effect, supporting a possible concerted proton electron transfer. DFT calculations of reaction enthalpies, activation energies and intrinsic reaction coordinates of the catalytic cycle support the high efficiency of the presented catalysts. In particular, results from secondary amines suggest new candidates as examples of the rarely known concerted proton electron transfer.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2024

Non-equilibrium plasma co-upcycling of waste plastics and CO 2 for carbon-negative oleochemicals

Mechanical recycling and chemical upcycling by thermochemical reactions have been the major approaches for recycling end-of-life plastics. Herein, we report an electrified approach to upcycle waste plastics into carbon-negative commodity chemicals using greenhouse gas CO 2 as the oxidant and additional carbon source. In this non-equilibrium plasma process, waste polyolefins were oxidatively depolymerized by plasma-activated CO 2 to produce oleochemicals and hydrocarbon chemicals in a single-step process at high reaction rates. In addition, a mixture of CO 2 and a small amount of O 2 was employed as plasma gases to selectively produce fatty alcohols from polyolefins. Based on this atmospheric pressure, non-solvent, and non-catalyst process, up to 97.6% of fatty alcohols could be produced within minutes. In this article, the co-conversion approach was demonstrated using common polyolefins and real-world mixed waste plastics to obtain comparable results. The techno-economic analysis estimates the internal rate of return to be 42.2% and 43.5% for the plasma-based conversion of waste plastics, depending on the plasma gas composition. Lifecycle assessment indicates the global warming potential is between −3.33 and −3.07 kg CO 2e per kg of plastic.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2024

Economic and environmental sustainability of bio-based HMF production and recovery from lignocellulosic biomass

5-Hydroxymethyl furfurals (HMF) is one of the versatile platform chemicals. However, green routes to produce it directly from lignocellulosic biomass are lacking. A significant amount of HMF produced during the hydrothermal valorization of lignocellulosic biomass is considered undesired and ends up in a waste stream. The study transformed the undesired byproduct into a valuable coproduct by advancing the existing biofuel production process. A detailed economic and environmental sustainability analysis of the integrated biorefinery design was performed. The evaluation showed that the biorefinery could afford a maximum feedstock purchasing price of $\$115.17$ per MT and produce HMF with a minimum selling price of $\$4.54$ per kg which is ~75% lower than the commercial price of HMF. The median global warming potential of HMF was estimated to be 3.92 kg CO 2 -eq. per kg HMF which was ~32% less than its counterpart bio-based p-xylene. Diverse coproducts produced in the biorefinery using transgenic feedstock positively impacted sustainability.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2025

Design and synthesis of biobased superhydrophobic biochar catalyst derived from Citrus sinensis for biodiesel production using inedible oil feedstocks

In an one-pot in situ trans/esterification of low-grade feedstocks, the simultaneous presence of triglycerides (TAGs) and free fatty acids (FFAs) presents a dual catalytic challenge. While TAGs undergo transesterification to form biodiesel and glycerol, FFAs present in the feedstocks are esterified simultaneously, producing water as a by-product. This water can deactivate acid catalysts by interacting with their active sites, reducing catalytic efficiency and reusability. To overcome this, we developed a hydrophobic sulfonic acid-functionalized biochar catalyst derived from Citrus sinensis (orange peel) via sulfonation with H 2 SO 4 and subsequent silylation using hexamethyldisilazane (HMDS). The optimized catalyst exhibited a high surface area (355.09 m 2 g −1 ), sulfur content (5.33 wt%), and strong hydrophobicity (water contact angle: 154°). Compared to non-hydrophobic analogs, it showed enhanced activity and reusability (up to 10 cycles). Using response surface methodology with central composite design, a biodiesel yield of 99.1 ± 0.4% was achieved under optimal conditions. Life cycle assessment was performed to evaluate the environmental impacts of biodiesel production utilising the synthesized catalyst, considering 1000 kg of biodiesel produced as 1 functional unit. In conclusion, the recorded results showed the cumulative abiotic depletion of fossil resources over the entire biodiesel production process as 87 243.423 MJ and global warming potential as 4103.494 kg CO 2 equivalent.

Biochar↗
DOE OSTI2026

Valorization of consolidated bioprocessing residues for bioplastics

This study demonstrates an organic solvent-free processing strategy to valorize consolidated bioprocessing (CBP) residues, from switchgrass and poplar biomass, into functional poly(butylene succinate) (PBS)-based biocomposites using high-shear homogenization (HSH). HSH transformed the switchgrass and poplar CBP residues (CBP-R) into fine, uniformly distributed particles and microfibers. The composites of PBS with homogenized switchgrass residues (H-CBP-R-SG) or homogenized poplar residues (H-CBP-R-P) at a 70/30 weight ratio exhibited improved processability and mechanical integrity, with the Young's modulus for the PBS/H-CBP-R-SG and PBS/H-CBP-R-P nearly doubling to 0.66 ± 0.07 GPa and 0.65 ± 0.04 GPa, respectively, compared to neat PBS (0.36 ± 0.02 GPa). Dynamic Mechanical Analysis (DMA) reveals a significant suppression of the tan δ peak magnitude, indicating that HSH-mediated physical activation facilitates stress transfer in composites typical of covalent chemical grafting systems. While the transition to a stiffness-dominated profile reduces ductility, the resulting composites exhibit the dimensional stability and resistance to thermal warping required for high-fidelity FDM 3D printing and injection molding. Beyond material performance, comprehensive techno-economic analysis (TEA) and life cycle assessment (LCA) confirmed that diverting CBP residues into composite products can improve the economic viability of the biorefinery without substantially increasing biorefinery global warming potential (GWP). At a 30 wt% blend ratio, incorporating residuals into PBS yielded a minimum selling price for the composite of $\$4.07$ per kg compared to the conventional bioplastic price of $\$5.00$ per kg. This approach aligns with circular bioeconomy principles by converting waste streams into value-added products. Furthermore, this innovative strategy addresses key challenges in bioplastic development, including cost, compatibility, and performance, while simultaneously advancing waste minimization strategies for sustainable manufacturing systems.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗
DOE OSTI2024

Life Cycle Assessment and Life Cycle Cost Analysis of Repurposing Decommissioned Wind Turbine Blades as High-Voltage Transmission Poles

Wind energy is widely deployed and will likely grow in service of reducing the world’s dependency on fossil fuels. The first generation of wind turbines are now coming to the end of their service lives, and there are limited options for the reuse or recycling of the composite materials they are made of. Current literature has verified that there is no existing recycling pathway (i.e., mechanical, chemical, thermal methods of recovery, etc.) for end-of-life materials in wind blades that can meet cost parity with landfilling in the US. However, to the authors’ knowledge there is no study to date that uncovers the cost structures associated with repurposing wind turbine blades in the US. Repurposing could offer a cost-competitive advantage through displacement of higher-value products, rather than materials or chemical constituents alone. This study implements life cycle assessment (LCA) and life cycle cost analysis (LCC) to assess the environmental and financial implications at each stage of repurposing wind turbine blades as the primary load-carrying elements for high-voltage transmission line structures in the United States. This case study contribution to knowledge is based on the successful management of construction waste by analyzing an application for repurposing construction demolition waste. Specifically, this study presents an environmental and financial analysis of repurposing wind turbine blades as transmission line poles. Under this case study, our results show that BladePoles have lower greenhouse gas emissions than steel poles, and we anticipate BladePoles will be less costly than steel poles. Overall emissions are most sensitive to combustion emissions, driven primarily by transportation distance and hours of required crane operations during the installation process. Compared to other evaluated recycling methods, repurposing wind blades as BladePoles has the least overall global warming potential.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2021

Significant impact of forcing uncertainty in a large ensemble of climate model simulations

Forcing due to solar and volcanic variability, on the natural side, and greenhouse gas and aerosol emissions, on the anthropogenic side, are the main inputs to climate models. Reliable climate model simulations of past and future climate change depend crucially upon them. Here we analyze large ensembles of simulations using a comprehensive Earth System Model to quantify uncertainties in global climate change attributable to differences in prescribed forcings. The different forcings considered here are those used in the two most recent phases of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP), namely CMIP5 and CMIP6. We show significant differences in simulated global surface air temperature due to volcanic aerosol forcing in the second half of the 19th century and in the early 21st century. The latter arise from small-to-moderate eruptions incorporated in CMIP6 simulations but not in CMIP5 simulations. We also find significant differences in global surface air temperature and Arctic sea ice area due to anthropogenic aerosol forcing in the second half of the 20th century and early 21st century. These differences are as large as those obtained in different versions of an Earth System Model employing identical forcings. In simulations from 2015 to 2100, we find significant differences in the rates of projected global warming arising from CMIP5 and CMIP6 concentration pathways that differ slightly but are equivalent in terms of their nominal radiative forcing levels in 2100. Our results highlight the influence of assumptions about natural and anthropogenic aerosol loadings on carbon budgets, the likelihood of meeting Paris targets, and the equivalence of future forcing scenarios.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Environmental outcomes of the US Renewable Fuel Standard

Biofuels are included in many proposed strategies to reduce anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions and limit the magnitude of global warming. The US Renewable Fuel Standard is the world’s largest existing biofuel program, yet despite its prominence, there has been limited empirical assessment of the program’s environmental outcomes. Even without considering likely international land use effects, we find that the production of corn-based ethanol in the United States has failed to meet the policy’s own greenhouse gas emissions targets and negatively affected water quality, the area of land used for conservation, and other ecosystem processes. Our findings suggest that profound advances in technology and policy are still needed to achieve the intended environmental benefits of biofuel production and use.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗