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At least 703 records · Page 39
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS1985

Seasat data applications in ocean industries

It is pointed out that the world population expansion and resulting shortages of food, minerals, and fuel have focused additional attention on the world's oceans. In this context, aspects of weather prediction and the monitoring/prediction of long-range climatic anomalies become more important. In spite of technological advances, the commercial ocean industry and the naval forces suffer now from inadequate data and forecast products related to the oceans. The Seasat Program and the planned Navy-Remote Oceanographic Satellite System (N-ROSS) represent major contributions to improved observational coverage and the processing needed to achieve better forecasts. The Seasat Program was initiated to evaluate the effectiveness of the remote sensing of oceanographic phenomena from a satellite platform. Possible oceanographic satellite applications are presented in a table, and the impact of Seasat data on industry sectors is discussed. Attention is given to offshore oil development, deep-ocean mining, fishing, and marine transportation.

Montgomery, D. R.↗
NASA NTRS1989

Ultra-sensitive inertial sensors via neutral-atom interferometry

Upon looking at the various colossal interferometers, etc., discussed at this conference to test gravitational theory, one cannot avoid feeling that easier approaches exist. The use of low velocity, neutral atom matter waves in place of electromagnetic waves in sensitive inertial interferometer configurations is proposed. For applications, spacecraft experiments to sense a drag-free condition, to measure the Lense-Thirring precession, to measure the gravitomagnetic effect and/or the earth's geopotential (depending on altitude), and to detect long period gravitational waves are considered. Also, a terrestrial precision test of the equivalence principle on spin polarized atoms, capable of detecting effects of the 5th force is considered. While the ideas described herein are preliminary, the orders of magnitude are sufficiently tantalizing to warrant further study. Although existing proposed designs may be adequate for some of these experiments, the use of matter-wave interferometry offers reduced complexity and cost, and an absence of cryogenics.

Clauser, John F.↗
DOE OSTI2024

Energy conversion and transport in molecular-scale junctions

Molecular-scale junctions (MSJs) have been considered the ideal testbed for probing physical and chemical processes at the molecular scale. Due to nanometric confinement, charge and energy transport in MSJs are governed by quantum mechanically dictated energy profiles, which can be tuned chemically or physically with atomic precision, offering rich possibilities beyond conventional semiconductor devices. While charge transport in MSJs has been extensively studied over the past two decades, understanding energy conversion and transport in MSJs has only become experimentally attainable in recent years. As demonstrated recently, by tuning the quantum interplay between the electrodes, the molecular core, and the contact interfaces, energy processes can be manipulated to achieve desired functionalities, opening new avenues for molecular electronics, energy harvesting, and sensing applications. This Review provides a comprehensive overview and critical analysis of various forms of energy conversion and transport processes in MSJs and their associated applications. We elaborate on energy-related processes mediated by the interaction between the core molecular structure in MSJs and different external stimuli, such as light, heat, electric field, magnetic field, force, and other environmental cues. Key topics covered include photovoltaics, electroluminescence, thermoelectricity, heat conduction, catalysis, spin-mediated phenomena, and vibrational effects. Furthermore, the review concludes with a discussion of existing challenges and future opportunities, aiming to facilitate in-depth future investigation of promising experimental platforms, molecular design principles, control strategies, and new application scenarios.

Charge transport↗
NASA NTRS2011

NASA Tech Briefs, June 2011

Topics covered include: Wind and Temperature Spectrometry of the Upper Atmosphere in Low-Earth Orbit; Health Monitor for Multitasking, Safety-Critical, Real-Time Software; Stereo Imaging Miniature Endoscope; Early Oscillation Detection Technique for Hybrid DC/DC Converters; Parallel Wavefront Analysis for a 4D Interferometer; Schottky Heterodyne Receivers With Full Waveguide Bandwidth; Carbon Nanofiber-Based, High-Frequency, High-Q, Miniaturized Mechanical Resonators; Ultracapacitor-Based Uninterrupted Power Supply System; Coaxial Cables for Martian Extreme Temperature Environments; Using Spare Logic Resources To Create Dynamic Test Points; Autonomous Coordination of Science Observations Using Multiple Spacecraft; Autonomous Phase Retrieval Calibration; EOS MLS Level 1B Data Processing Software, Version 3; Cassini Tour Atlas Automated Generation; Software Development Standard Processes (SDSP); Graphite Composite Panel Polishing Fixture; Material Gradients in Oxygen System Components Improve Safety; Ridge Waveguide Structures in Magnesium-Doped Lithium Niobate; Modifying Matrix Materials to Increase Wetting and Adhesion; Lightweight Magnetic Cooler With a Reversible Circulator; The Invasive Species Forecasting System; Method for Cleanly and Precisely Breaking Off a Rock Core Using a Radial Compressive Force; Praying Mantis Bending Core Breakoff and Retention Mechanism; Scoring Dawg Core Breakoff and Retention Mechanism; Rolling-Tooth Core Breakoff and Retention Mechanism; Vibration Isolation and Stabilization System for Spacecraft Exercise Treadmill Devices; Microgravity-Enhanced Stem Cell Selection; Diagnosis and Treatment of Neurological Disorders by Millimeter-Wave Stimulation; Passive Vaporizing Heat Sink; Remote Sensing and Quantization of Analog Sensors; Phase Retrieval for Radio Telescope and Antenna Control; Helium-Cooled Black Shroud for Subscale Cryogenic Testing; Receive Mode Analysis and Design of Microstrip Reflectarrays; and Chance-Constrained Guidance With Non-Convex Constraints.

Source record↗
NASA NTRS2016

Global Ocean Evaporation Increases Since 1960 in Climate Reanalyses: How Accurate Are They?

AGCMs w/ Specified SSTs (AMIPs) GEOS-5, ERA-20CM Ensembles Incorporate best historical estimates of SST, sea ice, radiative forcing Atmospheric "weather noise" is inconsistent with specified SST. Instantaneous Sfc fluxes can be wrong sign (e.g. Indian Ocean Monsoon, high latitude oceans). Averaging over ensemble members helps isolate SST-forced signal. Reduced Observational Reanalyses: NOAA 20CR V2C, ERA-20C, JRA-55C Incorporate observed Sfc Press (20CR), Marine Winds (ERA-20C) and rawinsondes (JRA-55C) to recover much of true synoptic or weather w/o shock of new sat obs. Comprehensive Reanalyses (MERRA-2) Full suite of observational constraints- both conventional and remote sensing. But... substantial uncertainties owing to evolving satellite observing system. Multi-source Statistically Blended OAFlux, LargeYeager Blend reanalysis, satellite, and ocean buoy information. While climatological biases are removed, non-physical trends or variations in components remain. Satellite Retrievals GSSTF3, SeaFlux, HOAPS3... Global coverage. Retrieved near sfc wind speed, & humidity used with SST to drive accurate bulk aerodynamic flux estimates. Satellite inter-calibration, spacecraft pointing variations crucial. Short record ( late 1987-present). In situ Measurements ICOADS, IVAD, Res Cruises VOS and buoys offer direct measurements. Sparse data coverage (esp south of 30S. Changes in measurement techniques (e.g. shipboard anemometer height).

Climate↗
NASA NTRS1975

An overview of NASA's remote sensing program

The present status of NASA's remote sensing program and its future plans are reviewed, and some investigations into the possible uses of remotely sensed data are briefly summarized. Landsat-1 photographs are presented to demonstrate how such data can be employed for monitoring and forecasting of agricultural production, for watershed management and flood control, and for mineral exploration. The performance of Landsat-2 and expectations for Landsat-C are evaluated. High-priority problems which should be the driving forces for designing space observation systems for the 1980's are outlined, including the problem of world food supply and the relationship between land use and climatic changes. The design of the modular Landsat-D spacecraft, which will fly a thematic mapper for agricultural observations, is described.

Thome, P. G.↗
NASA NTRS2010

NATO Human View Architecture and Human Networks

The NATO Human View is a system architectural viewpoint that focuses on the human as part of a system. Its purpose is to capture the human requirements and to inform on how the human impacts the system design. The viewpoint contains seven static models that include different aspects of the human element, such as roles, tasks, constraints, training and metrics. It also includes a Human Dynamics component to perform simulations of the human system under design. One of the static models, termed Human Networks, focuses on the human-to-human communication patterns that occur as a result of ad hoc or deliberate team formation, especially teams distributed across space and time. Parameters of human teams that effect system performance can be captured in this model. Human centered aspects of networks, such as differences in operational tempo (sense of urgency), priorities (common goal), and team history (knowledge of the other team members), can be incorporated. The information captured in the Human Network static model can then be included in the Human Dynamics component so that the impact of distributed teams is represented in the simulation. As the NATO militaries transform to a more networked force, the Human View architecture is an important tool that can be used to make recommendations on the proper mix of technological innovations and human interactions.

Handley, Holly A. H.↗
NASA NTRS2003

Land Use and Land Cover Change, Urban Heat Island Phenomenon, and Health Implications: A Remote Sensing Approach

Land use and land cover maps of Atlanta Metropolitan Area in Georgia were produced from Landsat MSS and TM images for 1973,1979,1983,1987,1992, and 1997, spanning a period of 25 years. Dramatic changes in land use and land cover have occurred with loss of forest and cropland to urban use. In particular, low-density urban use, which includes largely residential use, has increased by over 119% between 1973 and 1997. These land use and land cover changes have drastically altered the land surface characteristics. An analysis of Landsat images revealed an increase in surface temperature and a decline in NDVI from 1973 to 1997. These changes have forced the development of a significant urban heat island effect and an increase in ground level ozone production to such an extent, that Atlanta has violated EPA's ozone level standard in recent years. The urban heat island initiated precipitation events that were identified between 1996 and 2000 tended to occur near high-density urban areas but outside the I-285 loop that traverses around the Central Business District, i.e. not in the inner city area, but some in close proximity to the highways. The health implications were investigated by comparing the spatial patterns of volatile organic compounds (VOC) and nitrogen oxides (NOx) emissions, the two ingredients that form ozone by reacting with sunlight, with those of rates of cardiovascular and chronic lower respiratory diseases. A clear core-periphery pattern was revealed for both VOC and NOx emissions, but the spatial pattern was more random in the cases of rates of cardiovascular and chronic lower respiratory diseases. Clearly, factors other than ozone pollution were involved in explaining the rates of these diseases. Further research is therefore needed to understand the health geography and its relationship to land use and land cover change as well as urban heat island effect. This paper illustrates the usefulness of a remote sensing approach for this purpose.

Lo, C. P.↗
DOE OSTI2022

Effects of structure and volcanic stratigraphy on groundwater and surface water flow: Hat Creek basin, California, USA

Abstract Hydrogeologic systems in the southern Cascade Range in California (USA) develop in volcanic rocks where morphology, stratigraphy, extensional structures, and attendant basin geometry play a central role in groundwater flow paths, groundwater/surface-water interactions, and spring discharge locations. High-volume springs (greater than 3 m 3 /s) flow from basin-filling (<800 ka) volcanic rocks in the Hat Creek and Fall River tributaries and contribute approximately half of the average annual flow of the Pit River, the largest tributary to Shasta Lake. A hydrogeologic conceptual framework is constructed for the Hat Creek basin combining new geologic mapping, water-well lithologic logs, a database of active faults, LiDAR mapping of faults and volcanic landforms, streamflow measurements and airborne thermal infrared remote sensing of stream temperature. These data are used to integrate the geologic structure and the volcanic and volcaniclastic stratigraphy to create a three-dimensional interpretation of the hydrogeology in the basin. Two large streamflow gains from focused groundwater discharge near Big Spring and north of Sugarloaf Peak result from geologic barriers that restrict lateral groundwater flow and force water into Hat Creek. The inferred groundwater-flow barriers divide the aquifer system into at least three leaky compartments. The two downstream compartments lose streamflow in the upstream reaches (immediately downstream of the groundwater-flow barriers) and gain in downstream reaches with the greatest inflows immediately upstream of the barriers.

Geology↗
NASA NTRS2004

Airborne In Situ and Ground-based Polarimetric Radar Measurements of Tropical Convection in Support of CRYSTAL-FACE

This report describes the work performed by the University of North Dakota (UND) under NASA Grant NAG5-11509, titled Airborne In Situ and Ground-based Polarimetric Radar Measurements of Tropical Convection in Support of CRYSTAL-FACE. This work focused on the collection of data by two key platforms: the UND Citation II research aircraft and the NASA NPOL radar system. The CRYSTAL-FACE (C-F) mission addresses several key issues from the NASA Earth System Enterprise, including the variability of water in the atmosphere, the forcing provided by tropical cirrus and the response of the Earth system to this forcing. In situ measurements and radar observations of tropical convection, cirrus clouds and their environment are core elements of C-F. One of the primary issues that C-F is addressing is the relationship of tropical cirrus anvils to precipitating deep convection. The in situ measurements from C-F are being used to validate remote sensing of Earth-Atmosphere properties, increase our knowledge of upper tropospheric water vapor and its distribution, and increase our knowledge of tropical cirrus cloud morphology and composition. Radar measurements, especially polarimetric diversity observations available fiom the NASA NPOL radar, are providing essential information about the initiation, modulation, and dissipation of convective cores and the generation of associated anvils in tropical convection. Specifically, NPOL radar measurements contain information about convective intensity and its vertical structure for comparison with thermodynamic and kinematic environmental measurements observed from soundings. Because of the polarimetric diversity of MOL, statistics on bulk microphysical properties can be retrieved and compared to the other characteristics of convection and associated cirrus anvils. In summary, the central objectives of this proposal were to deploy the UND Citation research aircraft as an in situ sensing platform for this mission and to provide collaborative analyses of the recorded data and to deploy the NPOL radar to observe the characteristics of cirrus and parent convection.

Poellot, Michael R.↗
DOE OSTI2020

The influence of boundary and edge-plasma modeling in computations of axisymmetric vertical displacement

A number of previously published studies apply extended-MHD computations to model macroscopic dynamics of tokamak vertical displacement events (VDEs). The characteristic plasma-wall contact and resistive-wall diffusion imply sensitivity to boundary conditions in a general sense, but which conditions have significant influence depends on how the plasma is modeled. This work examines these dependencies by comparing results of axisymmetric extended-MHD computations with different sets of boundary conditions, plasma thermal-conduction models, and wall resistivity values. The geometry and plasma parameters of the computations represent a modest-sized tokamak. The forced-displacement scenario and computational setup are similar to those used in previous 3D computations. The results show that for a given wall resistivity, the VDE time-scale is most sensitive to variations in the boundary and thermal-conduction parameters that affect electron thermal transport. The electrical conductivity depends on electron temperature, and the dependence on thermal transport stems from its influence on the electrical circuit that includes the open-field halo current. Lastly, conditions that lead to hotter, broader halo regions slow the evolution. Significant sensitivity to the boundary condition on plasma flow-velocity exists when electron thermal conduction is restricted and electron energy loss is convective, which is expected for conditions at the entrance of the magnetic presheath.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
DOE OSTI2023

Proton-neutron entanglement in the nuclear shell model

Abstract We compute the proton-neutron entanglement entropy in the interacting nuclear shell model for a variety of nuclides and interactions. Some results make intuitive sense, for example, that the shell structure, as governed by single-particle and monopole energies, strongly affects the energetically available space and thus the entanglement entropy. We also find a surprising result: that the entanglement entropy at low excitation energy tends to decrease for nuclides when N ≠ Z . While we provide evidence this arises from the physical nuclear force by contrasting with random two-body interactions which shows no such decrease, the exact mechanism is unclear. Nonetheless, the low entanglement suggests that in models of neutron-rich nuclides, the coupling between protons and neutrons may be less computationally demanding than one might otherwise expect.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2020

Description of the LASSO Data Bundles Product

The U. S. Department of Energy (DOE) Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) user facility began a pilot project in May 2015 to design a routine, high-resolution modeling capability to complement ARM’s extensive suite of measurements. This modeling capability has evolved into the Large-Eddy Simulation (LES) ARM Symbiotic Simulation and Observation (LASSO) datastream. The datastream, broadly termed data bundles, contains high-resolution model output, input files, observations for evaluation, and skill scores for the simulations. The initial focus of LASSO is on shallow convection at the ARM Southern Great Plains (SGP) atmospheric observatory. The availability of LES simulations with concurrent observations serves many purposes. LES helps bridge the scale gap between DOE ARM observations and models, and the use of routine LES adds value to observations. It provides a self-consistent representation of the atmosphere and a dynamical context for the observations. Further, it elucidates unobservable processes and properties. LASSO generates a simulation library for researchers that enables statistical approaches beyond a single-case mentality. It also provides tools necessary for modelers to reproduce the LES and conduct their own sensitivity experiments. The LASSO library of data bundles is designed to facilitate a wide range of research. For an observationalist, LASSO can help inform instrument remote-sensing retrievals, conduct observation system simulation experiments (OSSEs), and test implications of radar scan strategies or flight paths. For a theoretician, LASSO can help calculate estimates of fluxes and co-variability of values, and test relationships without having to run the model personally. For a modeler, LASSO can help one know ahead of time which days have good forcing, have co-registered observations at high-resolution scales, and have simulation inputs and corresponding outputs to test parameterizations. Further details on the overall LASSO project are available at https://www.arm.gov/capabilities/modeling/lasso.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS1990

Human Machine Interfaces for Teleoperators and Virtual Environments Conference

In a teleoperator system the human operator senses, moves within, and operates upon a remote or hazardous environment by means of a slave mechanism (a mechanism often referred to as a teleoperator). In a virtual environment system the interactive human machine interface is retained but the slave mechanism and its environment are replaced by a computer simulation. Video is replaced by computer graphics. The auditory and force sensations imparted to the human operator are similarly computer generated. In contrast to a teleoperator system, where the purpose is to extend the operator's sensorimotor system in a manner that facilitates exploration and manipulation of the physical environment, in a virtual environment system, the purpose is to train, inform, alter, or study the human operator to modify the state of the computer and the information environment. A major application in which the human operator is the target is that of flight simulation. Although flight simulators have been around for more than a decade, they had little impact outside aviation presumably because the application was so specialized and so expensive.

Source record↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Human-Autonomy Teaming Research in Support of m:N Operations

Since 2019, the NASA and industry partners have been involved in research focused on a novel paradigm for operations of remotely piloted aircraft. This paradigm involves multiple people sharing a fleet of multiple vehicles between them. Referred to as m:N (pronounced “em-to-en”), this configuration describes a ratio where m is the number of operators and N is the number of vehicles. Through force and asset multiplication, the m:N concept seeks to enable a scalable and resilient operation of remotely crewed vehicles. The primary means of obtaining such a robust operation is through allowing a flexible crew of variable size to dynamically attend to the needs of assets in while performing real-time operator workload management. It is in that sense that assets are shared between operators: as needed (such as in events of elevated workload) an operator in an m:N context can “handoff” the responsibility for some amount of assets, nh < N, to be absorbed by the m – 1 crew members on staff. At some time later, these nh assets could be returned to their original owner or they may be further distributed to other crew if called for by the mission. During this panel, I will elaborate on the research activity undertaken by the Human-Autonomy Teaming (HAT) Laboratory at NASA Ames Research Center over the previous three years. The studies conducted by the HAT Lab range from interviews with subject matter experts, a cognitive walkthrough, a task analysis, and two simulation experiments to-date. During experimentation, pilots made use of an advanced Ground Control Station developed by the HAT Lab and industry partners to simulate m:N operations in two large, metropolitan areas of Southern California: Los Angeles and San Diego. Further experimentation planned over the next few years. Results from our research to-date indicates that pilots of a moderately sized fleet of about a dozen remotely crewed aircraft adequately maintained safety performance and situation awareness of their aircraft, even when presented with unexpected situations of heightened workload.

multi-vehicle control↗
DOE OSTI2020

Atomic Force Microscopy-Based Force Spectroscopy and Multiparametric Imaging of Biomolecular and Cellular Systems

During the last three decades, a series of key technological improvements turned atomic force microscopy (AFM) into a nanoscopic laboratory to directly observe and chemically characterize molecular and cell biological systems under physiological conditions. In this work, we review key technological improvements that have established AFM as an analytical tool to observe and quantify native biological systems from the micro- to the nanoscale. Native biological systems include living tissues, cells, and cellular components such as single or complexed proteins, nucleic acids, lipids, or sugars. We showcase the procedures to customize nanoscopic chemical laboratories by functionalizing AFM tips and outline the advantages and limitations in applying different AFM modes to chemically image, sense, and manipulate biosystems at (sub)nanometer spatial and millisecond temporal resolution. We further discuss theoretical approaches to extract the kinetic and thermodynamic parameters of specific biomolecular interactions detected by AFM for single bonds and extend the discussion to multiple bonds. Finally, we highlight the potential of combining AFM with optical microscopy and spectroscopy to address the full complexity of biological systems and to tackle fundamental challenges in life sciences.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
NASA NTRS2000

Structural and Machine Design Using Piezoceramic Materials: A Guide for Structural Design Engineers

Using piezoceramic materials is one way the design engineer can create structures which have an ability to both sense and respond to their environment. Piezoceramic materials can be used to create structural sensors and structural actuators. Because piezoceramic materials have transduction as a material property, their sensing or actuation functions are a result of what happens to the material. This is different than discrete devices we might attach to the structure. For example, attaching an accelerometer to a structure will yield an electrical signal proportional to the acceleration at the attachment point on the structure. Using a electromagnetic shaker as an actuator will create an applied force at the attachment point. Active material elements in a structural design are not easily modeled as providing transduction at a point, but rather they change the physics of the structure in the areas where they are used. Hence, a designer must not think of adding discrete devices to a structure to obtain an effect, but rather must design a structural system which accounts for the physical principles of all the elements in the structure. The purpose of this manual is to provide practicing engineers the information necessary to incorporate piezoelectric materials in structural design and machine design. First, we will review the solid-state physics of piezoelectric materials. Then we will discuss the physical characteristics of the electrical-active material-structural system. We will present the elements of this system which must be considered as part of the design task for a structural engineer. We will cover simple modeling techniques and review the features and capabilities of commercial design tools that are available. We will then cover practical how-to elements of working with piezoceramic materials. We will review sources of piezoceramic materials and built-up devices, and their characteristics. Finally, we will provide two design examples using piezoceramic materials, first as discrete actuators for vibration isolation, and second as structurally-distributed sensor/actuators for active acoustic control.

Inman, Daniel J.↗
NASA NTRS2000

Section on Observed Impacts on El Nino

Agricultural applications of El Nino forecasts are already underway in some countries and need to be evaluated or re-evaluated. For example, in Peru, El Nino forecasts have been incorporated into national planning for the agricultural sector, and areas planted with rice and cotton (cotton being the more drought-tolerant crop) are adjusted accordingly. How well are this and other such programs working? Such evaluations will contribute to the governmental and intergovernmental institutions, including the Inter-American Institute for Global Change Research and the US National Ocean and Atmospheric Agency that are fostering programs to aid the effective use of forecasts. As El Nino climate forecasting grows out of the research mode into operational mode, the research focus shifts to include the design of appropriate modes of utilization. Awareness of and sensitivity to the costs of prediction errors also grow. For example, one major forecasting model failed to predict the very large El Nino event of 1997, when Pacific sea-surface temperatures were the highest on record. Although simple correlations between El Nino events and crop yields may be suggestive, more sophisticated work is needed to understand the subtleties of the interplay among the global climate system, regional climate patterns, and local agricultural systems. Honesty about the limitations of an forecast is essential, especially when human livelihoods are at stake. An end-to-end analysis links tools and expertise from the full sequence of ENSO cause-and-effect processes. Representatives from many disciplines are needed to achieve insights, e.g, oceanographers and atmospheric scientists who predict El Nino events, climatologists who drive global climate models with sea-surface temperature predictions, agronomists who translate regional climate connections in to crop yield forecasts, and economists who analyze market adjustments to the vagaries of climate and determine the value of climate forecasts. Methods include historical studies to understand past patterns and to test hindcasts of the prediction tools, crop modeling, spatial analysis and remote sensing. This research involves expanding, deepening, and applying the understanding of physical climate to the fields of agronomy and social science; and the reciprocal understanding of crop growth and farm economics to climatology. Delivery of a regional climate forecast with no information about how the climate forecast was derived limits its effectiveness. Explanation of a region's major climate driving forces helps to place a seasonal forecast in context. Then, a useful approach is to show historical responses to previous El Nino events, and projections, with uncertainty intervals, of crop response from dynamic process crop growth models. Regional ID forecasts should be updated with real-time weather conditions. Since every El Nino event is different, it is important to track, report and advise on each new event as it unfolds. The stability of human enterprises depends on understanding both the potentialities and the limits of predictability. Farmers rely on past experience to anticipate and respond to fluctuations in the biophysical systems on which their livelihoods depend. Now scientists are improving their ability to predict some major elements of climate variability. The improvements in the reliability of El Nino forecasts are encouraging, but seasonal forecasts for agriculture are not, and will probably never be completely infallible, due to the chaotic nature of the climate system. Uncertainties proliferate as we extend beyond Pacific sea-surface temperatures to climate teleconnections and agricultural outcomes. The goal of this research is to shed as a clear light as possible on these inherent uncertainties and thus to contribute to the development of appropriate responses to El Nino and other seasonal forecasts for a range of stakeholders, which, ultimately, includes food consumers everywhere.

Rosenzweig, Cynthia↗