Engineering Papers⌕ Search

SEARCH · Engineering Papers

Results for “extreme value”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 703 records · Page 39
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2020

Inertial dynamics of an interface with interfacial mass flux: Stability and flow fields’ structure, inertial stabilization mechanism, degeneracy of Landau’s solution, effect of energy fluctuations, and chemistry-induced instabilities

This work focuses on the long-standing problem of inertial dynamics of an interface with interfacial mass flux and reports new mechanisms for the interface stabilization and destabilization. The interface is a phase boundary separating fluids of different densities and having interfacial mass flux. To analyze the interface dynamics from a far field, we develop and apply the general matrix method to rigorously solve the boundary value problem involving the governing equations in the fluid bulk and the boundary conditions at the interface and at the outside boundaries of the domain. We find the fundamental solutions for the linearized system of equations and analyze the interplay of interface stability with flow fields’ structure by directly linking rigorous mathematical attributes to physical observables. We find that the interface is stable when the dynamics conserves the fluxes of mass, momentum, and energy; the stabilization is due to an inertial mechanism causing small oscillations of the interface velocity. In the classic Landau’s dynamics, the postulate of perfect constancy of the interface velocity leads to the development of Landau–Darrieus instability. This destabilization is also linked to the imbalance of the perturbed energy at the interface. The classic Landau’s solution is found to have degeneracy; lifting of the degeneracy may lead to singularity and self-similar dynamics. Our results compare well with traditional theories of combustion and propose new experiments to study the dynamics of the interface and the flow fields in combustible systems. We further conduct reactive molecular dynamics simulations to elucidate the complexity of chemical processes, to study the destabilizing effect of energy fluctuations on the interface stability, and to illustrate the chemistry-induced instabilities. In summary, we identify the extreme sensitivity of the interface dynamics to the interfacial boundary conditions, including the formal properties of fundamental solutions and the qualitative and quantitative properties of the flow fields. This provides new opportunities for studies, diagnostics, and control of multiphase flows in a broad range of processes in nature and technology.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2022

Recent Advances in Biological Recycling of Polyethylene Terephthalate (PET) Plastic Wastes

Polyethylene terephthalate (PET) is one of the most commonly used polyester plastics worldwide but is extremely difficult to be hydrolyzed in a natural environment. PET plastic is an inexpensive, lightweight, and durable material, which can readily be molded into an assortment of products that are used in a broad range of applications. Most PET is used for single-use packaging materials, such as disposable consumer items and packaging. Although PET plastics are a valuable resource in many aspects, the proliferation of plastic products in the last several decades have resulted in a negative environmental footprint. The long-term risk of released PET waste in the environment poses a serious threat to ecosystems, food safety, and even human health in modern society. Recycling is one of the most important actions currently available to reduce these impacts. Current clean-up strategies have attempted to alleviate the adverse impacts of PET pollution but are unable to compete with the increasing quantities of PET waste exposed to the environment. In this review paper, current PET recycling methods to improve life cycle and waste management are discussed, which can be further implemented to reduce plastics pollution and its impacts on health and environment. Compared with conventional mechanical and chemical recycling processes, the biotechnological recycling of PET involves enzymatic degradation of the waste PET and the followed bioconversion of degraded PET monomers into value-added chemicals. This approach creates a circular PET economy by recycling waste PET or upcycling it into more valuable products with minimal environmental footprint.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2024

MHONGOOSE: A MeerKAT nearby galaxy H I survey

The MHONGOOSE (MeerKAT H IObservations of Nearby Galactic Objects: Observing Southern Emitters) survey maps the distribution and kinematics of the neutral atomic hydrogen (H I) gas in and around 30 nearby star-forming spiral and dwarf galaxies to extremely low H Icolumn densities. The H Icolumn density sensitivity (3σover 16 km s −1 ) ranges from ∼5 × 10 17 cm −2 at 90″ resolution to ∼4 × 10 19 cm −2 at the highest resolution of 7″. The H Imass sensitivity (3σover 50 km s −1 ) is ∼5.5 × 10 5 M ⊙ at a distance of 10 Mpc (the median distance of the sample galaxies). The velocity resolution of the data is 1.4 km s −1 . One of the main science goals of the survey is the detection of cold accreting gas in the outskirts of the sample galaxies. The sample was selected to cover a range in H Imasses from 10 7 M ⊙ to almost 10 11 M ⊙ in order to optimally sample possible accretion scenarios and environments. The distance to the sample galaxies ranges from 3 to 23 Mpc. In this paper, we present the sample selection, survey design, and observation and reduction procedures. We compared the integrated H Ifluxes based on the MeerKAT data with those derived from single-dish measurement and find good agreement, indicating that our MeerKAT observations are recovering all flux. We present H Imoment maps of the entire sample based on the first ten percent of the survey data, and find that a comparison of the zeroth- and second-moment values shows a clear separation in the physical properties of the H Ibetween areas with star formation and areas without related to the formation of a cold neutral medium. Finally, we give an overview of the H I-detected companion and satellite galaxies in the 30 fields, five of which have not previously been cataloged. We find a clear relation between the number of companion galaxies and the mass of the main target galaxy.

Astronomy & Astrophysics↗
DOE OSTI2024

Changing windstorm characteristics over the US Northeast in a single model large ensemble

Abstract Extreme windstorms pose a significant hazard to infrastructure and public safety, particularly in the highly populated US Northeast (NE). However, the influence climate change and changing land use will have on these events remains unclear. A large ensemble generated using the Max-Planck Institute (MPI) Earth system model is used to generate projections of NE windstorms under different shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs) and to attribute changes to projected land use land cover (LULC) change, externally forced changes and internal climate variability. To reduce the influence of coarse grid cell resolution and uncertainties in surface roughness lengths, windstorms are identified using simultaneous widespread exceedance of local 99th percentile 10 m wind speeds (U 99 ). Projected declines in forest cover in the NE and the resulting reductions in surface roughness length under SSP3-7.0 lead to projections of large increases in U 99 and derived windstorm intensity and scale. However, these projected changes in regional LULC under SSP3-7.0 are unprecedented in a historical context and may not be realistic. After corrections are applied to remove the influence of LULC on wind speeds, regionally averaged U 99 exhibit declines for most of the single model initial-condition large ensemble (SMILE) members which are broadly proportional to the radiative forcing and global air temperature increase in the SSPs, with a median value of −0.15 ms −1 °C −1 . While weak cyclones are projected to decline in frequency in the NE, intense cyclones and the resulting windstorms and indices of socioeconomic loss do not. Where present, significant trends in these loss indices are positive, and some MPI SMILE members generate future windstorms that are unprecedented in the historical period.

Coburn, Jacob (ORCID:0000000309538117)↗
DOE OSTI2025

Multidecadal Fluctuations in the Observed ENSO‐Tropical Cyclone Teleconnection

Abstract El Niño‐Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is a skillful predictor for seasonal tropical cyclone (TC) activity in most TC basins. This study examines recent changes in the observed ENSO‐TC teleconnection strength, as measured by ENSO modulation of hurricane frequency. We find that the ENSO‐North Atlantic TC teleconnection fluctuated over time, with the strongest relationship occurring from the 1980s to the mid‐2000s. In the western and eastern North Pacific, the ENSO‐TC teleconnection has strengthened in recent decades. Periods with a strong ENSO‐TC teleconnection are associated with more favorable environmental conditions for TCs, with higher values of genesis potential indices. Positive phases of the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation coincided with periods of strong ENSO‐TC teleconnections in the Atlantic and North Pacific basins. A weaker Atlantic ENSO‐TC relationship was associated with negative phases of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation and the North Atlantic Oscillation. This research reveals climate conditions that modulate ENSO's utility for seasonal TC prediction. Plain Language Summary El Niño‐Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is a useful predictor for seasonal tropical cyclone (TC) activity in many basins. Here we found that the strength of the ENSO‐TC teleconnection, represented as the correlation between ENSO and the number of hurricanes and accumulated cyclone energy, has changed in the historical record. The ENSO‐TC teleconnection in the North Atlantic fluctuated over time, with a weak relationship during the 1960s and 1970s and a strong relationship during the 1980s to mid‐2000s. Meanwhile, the ENSO‐TC teleconnection strengthened in the North Pacific in recent decades, with strong teleconnections after the 1980s in the western North Pacific and after the 2000s in the eastern North Pacific. Periods of strong ENSO‐TC teleconnections are associated with more favorable environmental conditions for TCs, including higher values of genesis potential indices and higher mid‐tropospheric humidity, as well as positive phases of the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation. Additionally, the negative phase of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation leads to strong/weak ENSO‐TC teleconnections in the eastern North Pacific and North Atlantic, respectively. Furthermore, a negative North Atlantic Oscillation is associated with a weak ENSO‐North Atlantic TC teleconnection. This research highlights variations in ENSO's effectiveness for seasonal TC prediction. Key Points The observed impact of ENSO on tropical cyclone (TC) activity exhibits multidecadal fluctuations The ENSO‐TC teleconnection was strong in the Atlantic from the 1980s to mid‐2000s and strengthened over the North Pacific in recent decades The ENSO‐TC teleconnection is stronger in the Atlantic and North Pacific basins during a positive Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation

ENSO↗
DOE OSTI2026

Space-time evolution of particle emission in p–Pb collisions at $\sqrt{{s}_{\text{NN}}} = 5.02$ TeV with 3D kaon femtoscopy

The measurement of three-dimensional femtoscopic correlations between identical charged kaons (K ± K ± ) produced in p–Pb collisions at center-of-mass energy per nucleon pair $\sqrt{{s}_{\text{NN}}}=5.02$ TeV with ALICE at the LHC is presented for the first time. This measurement, supplementary to those in pp and Pb–Pb collisions, allows understanding the particle-production mechanisms at different charged-particle multiplicities and provides information on the dynamics of the source of particles created in p–Pb collisions, for which a general consensus does not yet exist. It is shown that the measured source sizes increase with charged-particle multiplicity and decrease with increasing pair transverse momentum. These trends for K ± K ± are similar to the ones observed earlier in identical charged-pion and ${\text{K}}_{\text{s}}^{0}{\text{K}}_{\text{s}}^{0}$ correlations in Pb–Pb collisions at various energies and in π ± π ± correlations in p–Pb collisions at $\sqrt{{s}_{\text{NN}}}=5.02$ TeV. At comparable multiplicity, the source sizes measured in p–Pb collisions agree within uncertainties with those observed in pp collisions, and there is an indication that they are smaller than those observed in Pb–Pb collisions. The obtained results are also compared with predictions from the hadronic interaction model EPOS 3, which tends to underestimate the source size for the most central collisions and agrees with the data for semicentral and peripheral events. Furthermore, the time of maximal emission for kaons is extracted. It turns out to be comparable with the value obtained in highly peripheral Pb–Pb collisions at the same energy, indicating that the kaon emission evolution is similar to that in p–Pb collisions.

Heavy Ion Experiments↗
DOE OSTI2022

Epitaxial growth, magnetoresistance, and electronic band structure of GdSb magnetic semimetal films

Motivated by observations of extreme magnetoresistance (XMR) in bulk crystals of rare-earth monopnictide (RE-V) compounds and emerging applications in novel spintronic and plasmonic devices based on thin-film semimetals, we have investigated the electronic band structure and transport behavior of epitaxial GdSb thin films grown on III-V semiconductor surfaces. The Gd 3 + ion in GdSb has a high spin S=7/2 and no orbital angular momentum, serving as a model system for studying the effects of antiferromagnetic order and strong exchange coupling on the resulting Fermi surface and magnetotransport properties of RE-Vs. Here, we present a surface and structural characterization study mapping the optimal synthesis window of thin epitaxial GdSb films grown on III-V lattice-matched buffer layers via molecular-beam epitaxy. To determine the factors limiting XMR in RE-V thin films and provide a benchmark for band-structure predictions of topological phases of RE-Vs, the electronic band structure of GdSb thin films is studied, comparing carrier densities extracted from magnetotransport, angle-resolved photoemission spectroscopy (ARPES), and density-functional theory (DFT) calculations. ARPES shows a hole-carrier rich, topologically trivial, semimetallic band structure close to complete electron-hole compensation, with quantum confinement effects in the thin films observed through the presence of quantum-well states. DFT-predicted Fermi wave vectors are in excellent agreement with values obtained from quantum oscillations observed in magnetic field-dependent resistivity measurements. An electron-rich Hall coefficient is measured despite the higher hole-carrier density, attributed to the higher electron Hall mobility. The carrier mobilities are limited by surface and interface scattering, resulting in lower magnetoresistance than that measured for bulk crystals.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2020

Wireless Instrumented RB Experiment Preliminary Design and Analysis

The ability to deploy new nuclear fuels for current or future reactor concepts requires carefully designed experiments to generate data to support fuel qualification. Ideally these experiments would include state of-the-art sensing to maximize the amount of in situ data that can be collected during operation. Furthermore, advanced reactor systems can take advantage of integrated in-core sensing technologies to maximize fuel utilization, reduce unnecessary conservativism in design margins, and improve operator’s understanding of limiting peaking factors. Before any novel sensing technologies can be readily adopted for nuclear applications, they must first demonstrate acceptable performance in test reactors. This report summarizes the preliminary design and analysis of the most highly instrumented irradiation experiment ever performed in the removable beryllium (RB) positions of the High Flux Isotope Reactor (HFIR) at Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL). The Wireless Instrumented RB Experiment 2021 (WIRE-21) will test a wide range of sensors including wireless sensors being developed by Westinghouse Electric Company (WEC) that could provide in situ measurements of peak fuel temperatures and fuel rod pressurization due to fission gas release. The ability to wirelessly transmit a signal through the fuel rod’s cladding is critical to improving fuel monitoring capabilities without requiring signal penetrations through the cladding pressure boundary, which would significantly impact fuel fabrication, handling, and operation. Other sensors that will be tested in WIRE-21 include an array of thermocouples, self-powered neutron detectors (SPNDs), and spatially distributed fiber-optic temperature sensors. More generally, WIRE-21 will establish a flexible irradiation vehicle design to allow accelerated, economical testing of advanced sensor technologies while leveraging the extremely high neutron flux that is available in HFIR. This report summarizes the mechanical design for WIRE-21, the experimental test matrix, initial neutronic and thermal design analyses, and the active monitoring and control system enhancements necessary to support testing of advanced sensor technologies. The containment for WIRE-21 is similar to previous RB irradiation vehicles but includes a few modifications, most notably the use of integrated compression seals to pass a larger number of sensor leads through the experiment’s pressure boundary. In addition to the sensor leads, inert gas lines are passed into the experiment to enable active temperature control and the ability to pneumatically actuate a bellows-driven pressure sensor. WIRE-21 is targeting temperatures (300–350°C) and neutron fluence levels (~10 22 n/cm 2 ) relevant to light water reactors (LWRs), but the flexible design of the experiment vehicle allows much higher operating temperatures (>1,100°C). Neutronic calculations determine the neutron flux conditions as well as the nuclear heating within the experiments. These results are used as inputs to detailed thermal finite element calculations, which are required to evaluate the complex, three-dimensional heat transfer that occurs within WEC’s wireless sensor enclosures. Initial results show that the temperatures of the sensors’ enclosures and the metal bellows can be operated near the temperature range of LWR coolants and cladding while simultaneously increasing the temperature of a surrogate fuel material to values in the range of 800–1200°C to simulate centerline fuel temperatures during LWR operation.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗
DOE OSTI2021

The effects of low- Z shielding on uranium isotope discrimination using the time-emission profiles of long-lived delayed neutrons

Characteristic radiation signals can often be obscured or distorted by relatively small amounts of shielding, as is the case for highly-enriched uranium (HEU). Methods that can detect and identify special nuclear material (SNM) even in the presence of shielding are therefore of high value in many nuclear security and nonproliferation applications. It has been previously shown that the buildup and decay time profiles of long-lived delayed neutron emission from induced fission are unique and can be used to successfully discriminate between uranium isotopes and infer enrichment without the need for a calibration standard. Because the long-lived delayed neutron precursors exhibit decay times on the order of tens of seconds, their time profiles are not sensitive to the delays associated with scattering or diffusion in shielding materials, which occur on much shorter time scales. The use of capture-based neutron detectors can also mitigate the effects of shielding, because unlike recoil-based detectors, they do not have a low-energy detection threshold, so that neutrons that lose their energy in the shielding are still detectable. In this work, the effects of low-Z shielding on the discrimination of uranium isotopes using delayed neutron time profile measurements are investigated for the first time. Furthermore, the delayed neutron buildup and decay time profiles of polyethylene-shielded HEU and depleted uranium objects are measured using two different capture-gated detector designs. The recorded profiles show good agreement with the shapes predicted from six-group delayed neutron models even with the shielding in place, and the enrichment of the HEU and DU objects was estimated accurately to within 5%. While this method shows potential for discriminating and characterizing extreme cases of enrichment when a moderate amount of shielding is present, simulation results suggest that significant limitations exist for intermediate enrichment levels due to distortions to the delayed neutron time profile caused by neutron reflection in the shielding.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗
DOE OSTI2020

The Argonne SuperGel for CBRN Decontamination - 20160

The Argonne SuperGel was developed between 2003 and 2015 to fill a gap in our nation's capability to quickly decontaminate important structures following a radiological or nuclear release event. Specifically, the decontamination technology was developed to minimize damage to monuments, high valued structures, and critical infrastructure while reducing environmental and health impacts. An important criterion during its development, common reagents were employed that could be easily acquired in order to minimize the timeline for its deployment. Its current formulation uses off-the-shelf super-absorbing hydrogels common to the food and agricultural industry and common salts. Over the years, two formulations of the Argonne SuperGel have been developed to specifically target radioactive cesium contaminations and then, more generically, actinide and fission product contaminations. A biodegradable derivative of phosphoric acid is used in small amounts to promote the removal of insoluble actinide species. The original order of unit operations for the SuperGel technology was 1) applying the wash solution to promote mobility of the contaminants on the surface, 2) applying the hydrogel to absorb the wash solution and contaminants, and 3) removing the hydrogel for disposal. During the course of our studies, we tested a new formulation of the gel technology that eliminated the need for a separate step to apply the wash solution without a compromise in decontamination factors. Greater than 70% and >95% of Cs-137 were removed from concrete and tile coupons, respectively, after two decontaminations, with the best results using wash solutions of 1.0 M KCl and 1.0 M NH{sub 4}Cl formulations. We found no statistical difference between results at 30 deg. C and 40 deg. C or at 70% and 90% relative humidity. We tested the gel under strong UV irradiation to simulate extreme environments. While a tropical noontime UV flux did not adversely affect the gel system decontamination of Cs-137 from concrete or tile coupons, the noontime flux resulted in significant dehydration of the gel after two hours of constant exposure. The rehydration of the gel by the humid air (at 90% humidity and 40 deg. C) was slow and may not be sufficient to offset dehydration by the sun. Americium decontamination from concrete was 70% after optimizing the phosphoric acid derivative and carbonate salt concentration in the wash solution. Since its development, we have had the opportunity to test the SuperGel in the removal of legacy contaminations in hot cell facilities and former glovebox facilities at Argonne. This has provided a unique opportunity to evaluate the SuperGel on a range of contaminants outside the original specifications for its use. We will report on the origin of the gel formulation, some highlighted experimental data including independent testing by the US EPA which has never been reported, and its efficacy for removing legacy alpha contaminations and its potential use for removal of chemical and biological hazardous agents. (authors)

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗
DOE OSTI2025

Multi-physics Topology OPtimization and Additive Manufacturing for High-temperature Heat Exchangers

This research significantly advances the understanding of high-temperature heat exchanger design through an integrated approach that combines topology optimization (TO), triply periodic minimal surface (TPMS) structures, additive manufacturing (AM) and thermohydraulic testing. Each of these components contributes uniquely to a unified, high-performance design, fabrication and testing workflow. Topology optimization serves as the foundation of the design methodology by providing a systematic way to determine the most effective material layout for separating hot and cold fluids while maximizing thermal performance. The researchers introduced a novel three-material optimization framework using two density fields to represent hot fluid, cold fluid, and solid domains. This approach enables automated discovery of optimal shapes and flow paths that cannot be intuitively designed, especially under constraints imposed by manufacturing technologies. Furthermore, constraints such as minimal wall thickness and overhang angles were embedded into the optimization process, ensuring that resulting designs are not only thermally efficient but also manufacturable using modern additive techniques. In parallel, the study delves into the use of Gyroid-based TPMS geometries for constructing the core of the heat exchanger. TPMS structures are known for their high surface area, excellent fluid mixing capabilities, and minimal pressure drop characteristics. The researchers applied a data-driven modeling framework using Heteroscedastic Sparse Gaussian Process Regression (HSGPR) combined with genetic algorithms. This allowed for the rapid evaluation and optimization of key geometric parameters such as frequency, iso-value, and phase shift. The result was a set of Gyroid structures tailored for high heat transfer and low flow resistance, demonstrating clear improvements over conventional straight-channel designs. After the designing process, additive manufacturing played a critical role by turning these highly complex, optimized geometries into physical components. Utilizing Laser Powder Bed Fusion (LPBF) with Haynes 282, the study demonstrated the feasibility of fabricating these heat exchangers at high precision. Post-processing methods, including dilation-erosion operations, were applied to ensure local features adhered to self-supporting constraints. The fabricated structures were then subjected to thermohydraulic testing under conditions representative of supercritical CO 2 Brayton cycles, validating the predicted performance and confirming the viability of the full design-to-fabrication pipeline. Finally, thermohydraulic testing across the above studies served as a crucial experimental validation of advanced heat exchanger. Under consistent high-temperature and high-pressure conditions using supercritical CO 2 , the testing demonstrated that both TO and Gyroid-based TPMS designs significantly outperformed conventional straight-channel HXs. The TO design achieved a 115% increase in UA and NTU and a 27.6% boost in gravimetric power density, while the data-driven optimized Gyroid design delivered a 166% increase in UA and NTU and improved effectiveness from 68.7% to 86.1%. These results validate the simulation models, confirm the manufacturability of complex geometries under AM constraints, and provide key insights into design-performance trade-offs, thereby advancing the development of high-efficiency, compact heat exchangers for extreme environments.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2025

Techno-Economic Analysis of Data-Driven and Transactive Approaches for Resilience Enhancement

As extreme weather events lead to more frequent power outages, understanding and enhancing grid resilience is critical to mitigating economic losses and non-energy impacts from service disruptions. Here, this study introduces a novel techno-economic analysis framework for evaluating resilience enhancement mechanisms. The framework combines grid response modeling with a co-simulation approach and valuation methodology to provide a comprehensive assessment. We apply this framework to a realistic case study of the Texas grid during Winter Storm Uri in February 2021. Two advanced resilience strategies are analyzed: a data-driven rolling outage mechanism and a transactive energy (TE) based allocation scheme. The rolling outage scheme selectively serves customers based on real-time curtailment needs, while the TE scheme allows customers to trade energy allocations according to their preferences. Our findings show that both the rolling outage and TE schemes significantly outperform conventional methods (i.e. controlled outages) by reducing the amount of energy not supplied to customers by 41% and 64%, respectively. These approaches also enhance flexibility and customer satisfaction, while improving energy utilization for greater resilience. Additionally, they maintain thermal comfort about 3.5 times better and substantially lower customer risk exposure. A key contribution of this study is addressing both utility and customer perspectives while considering both energy and non-energy impacts. The techno-economic analysis indicates that implementing these resilience enhancement strategies would incur an additional 1.1Bto1.6B in utility costs but has the potential to avoid 17.3Bto18B of customer losses as compared to existing solutions, thereby underscoring the value of investing in advanced resilience, as it provides significant societal benefits to customers.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2023

Parameter estimation with maximal updated densities

A recently developed measure-theoretic framework solves a stochastic inverse problem (SIP) for models where uncertainties in model output data are predominantly due to aleatoric (i.e., irreducible) uncertainties in model inputs (i.e., parameters). The subsequent inferential target is a distribution on parameters. Another type of inverse problem is to quantify uncertainties in estimates of “true” parameter values under the assumption that such uncertainties should be reduced as more data are incorporated into the problem, i.e., the uncertainty is considered epistemic. A major contribution of this work is the formulation and solution of such a parameter identification problem (PIP) within the measure-theoretic framework developed for the SIP. The approach is novel in that it utilizes a solution to a stochastic forward problem (SFP) to update an initial density only in the parameter directions informed by the model output data. In other words, this method performs “selective regularization” only in the parameter directions not informed by data. Further, the solution is defined by a maximal updated density (MUD) point where the updated density defines the measure-theoretic solution to the PIP. Another significant contribution of this work is the full theory of existence and uniqueness of MUD points for linear maps with Gaussian distributions. Data-constructed Quantity of Interest (QoI) maps are also presented and analyzed for solving the PIP within this measure-theoretic framework as a means of reducing uncertainties in the MUD estimate. We conclude with a demonstration of the general applicability of the method on two problems involving either spatial or temporal data for estimating uncertain model parameters. The first problem utilizes spatial data from a stationary partial differential equation to produce a MUD estimate of an uncertain boundary condition. The second problem utilizes temporal data obtained from the state-of-the-art ADvanced CIRCulation (ADCIRC) model to obtain a MUD estimate of uncertain wind drag coefficients for a simulated extreme weather event near the Shinnecock Inlet located in the Outer Barrier of Long Island, NY, USA.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2021

The Santorini Volcanic Complex as a Valuable Source of Enzymes for Bioenergy

Marine microbial communities are an untapped reservoir of genetic and metabolic diversity and a valuable source for the discovery of new natural products of biotechnological interest. The newly discovered hydrothermal vent field of Santorini volcanic complex located in the Aegean Sea is gaining increasing interest for potential biotechnological exploitation. The conditions in these environments, i.e., high temperatures, low pH values and high concentration of heavy metals, often resemble harsh industrial settings. Thus, these environments may serve as pools of enzymes of enhanced catalytic properties that may provide benefits to biotechnology. Here, we screened 11 metagenomic libraries previously constructed from microbial mat samples covering the seafloor and the polymetallic chimneys of Kolumbo volcano as well as mat samples from Santorini caldera, to mine, in silico, genes associated with bioenergy applications. We particularly focused on genes encoding biomass hydrolysis enzymes such as cellulases, hemicellulases and lignin-degrading enzymes. A total of 10,417 genes were found for three specific groups of enzymes—i.e., the endoglucanases, the three different beta-glucosidases BGL, bglX and bglB, and the alpha-galactosidases melA, and rafA. Overall, we concluded that the Santorini–Kolumbo volcanic ecosystems constitute a significant resource of novel genes with potential applications in bioenergy that deserve further investigation.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

Event Horizon Telescope imaging of the archetypal blazar 3C 279 at an extreme 20 microarcsecond resolution

3C 279 is an archetypal blazar with a prominent radio jet that show broadband flux density variability across the entire electromagnetic spectrum. We use an ultra-high angular resolution technique – global Very Long Baseline Interferometry (VLBI) at 1.3 mm (230 GHz) – to resolve the innermost jet of 3C 279 in order to study its fine-scale morphology close to the jet base where highly variable γ-ray emission is thought to originate, according to various models. The source was observed during four days in April 2017 with the Event Horizon Telescope at 230 GHz, including the phased Atacama Large Millimeter/submillimeter Array (ALMA), at an angular resolution of ∼20 μas (at a redshift of z = 0.536 this corresponds to ∼0.13 pc ∼ 1700 Schwarzschild radii with a black hole mass MBH = 8 × 108 M⊙). Imaging and model-fitting techniques were applied to the data to parameterize the fine-scale source structure and its variation. We find a multicomponent inner jet morphology with the northernmost component elongated perpendicular to the direction of the jet, as imaged at longer wavelengths. The elongated nuclear structure is consistent on all four observing days and across different imaging methods and model-fitting techniques, and therefore appears robust. Owing to its compactness and brightness, we associate the northern nuclear structure as the VLBI “core”. This morphology can be interpreted as either a broad resolved jet base or a spatially bent jet. We also find significant day-to-day variations in the closure phases, which appear most pronounced on the triangles with the longest baselines. Our analysis shows that this variation is related to a systematic change of the source structure. Two inner jet components move non-radially at apparent speeds of ∼15 c and ∼20 c (∼1.3 and ∼1.7 μas day−1, respectively), which more strongly supports the scenario of traveling shocks or instabilities in a bent, possibly rotating jet. The observed apparent speeds are also coincident with the 3C 279 large-scale jet kinematics observed at longer (cm) wavelengths, suggesting no significant jet acceleration between the 1.3 mm core and the outer jet. The intrinsic brightness temperature of the jet components are ≲1010 K, a magnitude or more lower than typical values seen at ≥7 mm wavelengths. The low brightness temperature and morphological complexity suggest that the core region of 3C 279 becomes optically thin at short (mm) wavelengths.Key words: galaxies: active / galaxies: jets / galaxies: individual: 3C 279 / techniques: interferometric⋆ The data are only available at the CDS via anonymous ftp to cdsarc.u-strasbg.fr (130.79.128.5) or via http://cdsarc.u-strasbg.fr/viz-bin/cat/J/A+A/640/A69 and at https://eventhorizontelescope.org/for-astronomers/data⋆⋆ Deceased.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2021

Ultra diffuse galaxies in the MATLAS low-to-moderate density fields

Recent advances in deep dedicated imaging surveys over the past decade have uncovered a surprisingly large number of extremely faint low surface brightness galaxies with large physical sizes called ultra diffuse galaxies (UDGs) in clusters and, more recently, in lower density environments. As part of the Mass Assembly of early-Type GaLAxies with their fine Structures (MATLAS) survey, a deep imaging large program at the Canada-France-Hawaii Telescope (CFHT), our team has identified 2210 dwarf galaxies, 59 (~3%) of which qualify as UDGs. Averaging over the survey area, we find ~0.4 UDG per square degree. They are found in a range of low to moderate density environments, although 61% of the sample fall within the virial radii of groups. Based on a detailed analysis of their photometric and structural properties, we find that the MATLAS UDGs do not show significant differences from the traditional dwarfs, except from the predefined size and surface brightness cut. Their median color is as red as the one measured in galaxy clusters, albeit with a narrower color range. The majority of the UDGs are visually classified as dwarf ellipticals with log stellar masses of ~6.5 – 8.7. The fraction of nucleated UDGs (~34%) is roughly the same as the nucleated fraction of the traditional dwarfs. Only five (~8%) UDGs show signs of tidal disruption and only two are tidal dwarf galaxy candidates. A study of globular cluster (GC) candidates selected in the CFHT images finds no evidence of a higher GC specific frequency S N for UDGs than for classical dwarfs, contrary to what is found in most clusters. The UDG halo-to-stellar mass ratio distribution, as estimated from the GC counts, peaks at roughly the same value as for the traditional dwarfs, but spans the smaller range of ~10 – 2000. Finally, we interpret these results to mean that the large majority of the field-to-group UDGs do not have a different formation scenario than traditional dwarfs.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2025

A Near-Real-Time Model for Predicting Electricity Disruptions in Texas During Winter Storms

There has been an increase in extreme weather events, posing a threat to power grid systems, potentially influenced by factors such as population growth, changes in ecosystems, land cover, and land use in the service area, as well as the growth of certain vegetation types. This research seeks to develop a predictive model to mitigate potential damages caused by future winter storms. This research utilizes the Light Gradient Boosting Machine (LightGBM), incorporating the number of power outages experienced at the county level, geographic details, weather information, and lagged outage and lagged weather data. The developed models were broadly divided into two groups, with six models in each group - one group without optimization and another with optimization, totaling 12 trained models. For model optimization, Bayesian optimization was employed using Root Mean Squared Error (RMSE) as the objective function. In results, when comparing Group 2 (the optimized group) with Group 1 (the non-optimized group), it was found that optimization did not always lead to a reduction in RMSE and Mean Absolute Error (MAE). However, in terms of Mean Directional Accuracy (MDA), while all results in Group 1 were below the baseline accuracy of 0.33, all results in Group 2 exceeded 0.33, with some cases showing an increase of more than three times the baseline. The results indicated that, in the optimized model group, Population and Pressure were the most influential factors when using current weather data and geographical information. When using lagged data, lagged recorded outages and lagged Pressure emerged as the most significant factors. Among the 12 developed models, the L-1-2-O model showed the lowest RMSE and MAE, as well as the highest accuracy, with values of 390.62 households and 168.13 households, respectively. To normalize the RMSE and MAE values, each metric was divided by the average number of households among the counties in Texas. For the L-1-2-O model, the scaled RMSE was 0.88% and the scaled MAE was 0.38%. In terms of MDA, which indicates the accuracy of the prediction direction, the L-1-O model achieved the highest score of 0.41. Although this study focused on Texas, which suffered the greatest impact from the winter storms in 2021, with additional validation, the methodology used in this research could be applied to other regions.

Lee, Jangjae [Texas A & M Univ., College Station, ↗
DOE OSTI2024

PV Performance Modeling and Stakeholder Engagement (Final Technical Report)

This core capability project’s objective is to increase the value of photovoltaic (PV) performance models by improving their functionality, demonstrating, and quantifying their validity, and offering a wide range of stakeholder engagement opportunities. In FY22-24, we developed new and improved modeling algorithms and functions to represent PV performance more accurately in a variety of environments and conditions. The “Model parameter toolkit” was developed and includes functions to translate between different module temperature models, incidence angle modifier models, and single-diode models. A new modeling capability named “PV Atlas” was also developed leveraging Sandia’s High Performance Computing resources. This capability allows us to investigate several questions and provide climate-specific best practices and geographic data files; all these are hosted on an interactive website on Sandia’s GitHub and can be used for training, system optimization, or to provide best practices for uncertainty reduction. For model validation, we published high-quality PV performance, and weather data; these data are well documented, filtered, and processed for quality and include examples on how to run PV simulations. We also developed well documented, standardized methods for validating PV models and ran independent model validation and 2 blind modeling intercomparisons engaging with 49 organizations from 17 countries. We co-led and contributed to a growing, well documented and maintained suite of open-source functions for PV modeling (i.e., the pvlib-python) and we outreached to the PV modeling stakeholders via the PVPMC workshops and web resources. In addition, this project supported US representation and leadership for the International Energy Agency (IEA) PVPS Task 13; specifically, members of our team led and supported 3 subtasks on: 1) Best practices for the optimization of bifacial photovoltaic tracking, 2) Extreme weather events and their multiple impact on PV power plants: Risks, failure mechanisms and mitigation strategies, and 3) Best practice guidelines for the use of economic and technical Key Performance Indicators (KPIs). This project resulted in the publications of 14 peer reviewed journal papers, 37 conference presentations, 6 SAND reports, 5 public datasets and 6 new webpages on the PVPMC website. It supported the release of 13 pvlib-python versions where 28 enhancements were from this PV Performance Modeling project. We co-organized 5 PVPMC workshops in FY22-24 with the participation of 214 unique institutions and around 700 participants. The PVPMC website was redesigned, and its reliability was improved; it receives over 50,000 visitors/year from 202 unique countries.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗