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At least 703 records · Page 39

A Study of the December 1992 Westerly Wind Burst Event during TOGA COARE

Using the Penn State/NCAR MM5 mesoscale model, a westerly wind burst (WWB) that occurred during the period from 19 to 30 December 1992 over the Tropical Ocean Global Atmosphere Coupled Ocean-Atmosphere Response Experiment (TOGA COARE) has been simulated and compared with observation. This event is characterized by the presence of super cloud clusters and the occurrence of a major WWB that extended over the western and central Pacific Ocean. Although several of the observed convective systems were not precisely simulated by MM5, the model did capture many other observed characteristics, such as the explosive development of convection, the cyclonic circulation and the WWB. The WWB resulted from the coalescence of three types of tropical disturbances. The first type was a low-level westerly jet (LWJ) that developed at the equator and may be associated with the eastward propagation of an ISO (Intraseasonal Oscillation). The second type featured an easterly wave-like disturbance that originated in the south central Pacific Ocean and propagated westward. Finally, the third type involved a cross-equatorial flow that deflected Northern Hemispheric easterlies into the Southern Hemisphere and may be caused by inertial instability. These disturbances worked in concert, resulting in intense convection over the TOGA COARE region. Once intense convection developed, a large-scale circulation was produced over the western Pacific warm pool, propagated eastward, and initiated a WWB.

Chen, Chaing↗

Collision of Comet Shoemaker-Levy 9 with Jupiter: Impact Study of Two Fragments from Timing of Precursor Events

The impacts of fragments K and R of comet Shoemaker-Levy 9 are examined with the aim to interpret the timing of the observed precursors to the main thermal emission event and to correlate the results of ground-based infrared observations with a variety of observations made onboard the Galileo spacecraft. Independent observations of the impact phenomena (of K & R) are combined.

comet Shoemaker-Levy 9 Jupiter impact Jovian atmos↗

Analysis of magnetometer data/wave signals in the Earth's magnetosphere

Work on the reduction and analysis of Dynamics Explorer (DE) satellite magnetometer data with special emphasis on the ULF fluctuations and waves evident in such data is described. Research focused on the following: (1) studies of Pc 1 wave packets near the plasmapause; (2) satellite-ground pulsation study; (3) support for studies of ion energization processes; (4) search for Pc 1 wave events in 1981 DE 1 data; (5) study of Pc 3-5 events observed simultaneously by DE 1 and by AMPTE CCE; (6) support for studies of electromagnetic transients on DE 1; and (7) analysis of wave events induced by sudden impulses.

Engebretson, Mark J.↗

Ionospheric S-shaped Doppler fluctuations produced by the tornadoes

A three-dimensional nine element HF-CW Doppler sounder array has been used to detect ionospheric disturbances which may be due to tornadoes. The typical events chosen in the present study occurred on November 20 and 27, 1973. Both events are apparently associated with tornadoes sighted in the Huntsville, Alabama area. The Doppler records show S-shaped waves rather than the quasi-sinusoidal waves observed in conjunction with and apparently due to thunderstorms. The wave-periods are in the range of 6 to 8 minutes instead of the 3 to 5 minute periods associated with thunderstorms. Dissipation of waves is mostly due to the evanescent effect and they cannot propagate very far from the path of the tornado center. A theory is presented which is in good agreement with the observations.

Hung, R. J.↗

Government Quality Management Systems: Case Study from the Hawaii Missile Alert

The unfortunate Hawaii False Ballistic Missile Alert event on January 13, 2018 provides many examples of how a Quality Management System (QMS, e.g. ISO 9001 Quality Management Systems-Requirements) can be applied to government operations, and illustrates the need for existing quality standards to provide more clarity in their applicability to services. The event provides a valuable case study for those who ask the question: how do QMS systems and standards apply to government services? The following information is taken from the Hawaii Emergency Management Agency (EMA) investigation report.

Shepherd, Christena C.↗

Type III Radio Burst Duration and SEP Events

Long-duration (>15 min), low-frequency (<14 MHz) type III radio bursts have been reported to be indicative of solar energetic particle events. We measured the durations of type III bursts associated with large SEP events of solar cycle 23. The Type III durations are distributed symmetrically at 1 MHz yielding a mean value of approximately 33 min (median = 32 min) for the large SEP events. When the SEP events with ground level enhancement (GLE,) are considered, the distribution is essentially unchanged (mean = 32 min, median = 30 min). To test the importance of type III bursts in indicating SEP events, we considered a set of six type III bursts from the same active region (AR 10588) whose durations fit the "long duration" criterion. We analyzed the coronal mass ejections (CMEs), flares, and type II radio bursts associated with the type III bursts. The CMEs were of similar speeds and the flares are also of similar size and duration. All but one of the type III bursts was not associated with a type II burst in the metric or longer wavelength domains. The burst without type II burst also lacked a solar energetic particle (SEP) event at energies >25 MeV. The 1-MHz duration of the type III burst (28 rein) is near the median value of type III durations found for gradual SEP events and ground level enhancement (GLE) events. Yet, there was no sign of SEP events. On the other hand, two other type III bursts from the same active region had similar duration but accompanied by WAVES type 11 bursts; these bursts were also accompanied by SEP events detected by SOHO/ERNE. This study suggests that the type III burst duration may not be a good indicator of an SEP event, consistent with the statistical study of Cliver and Ling (2009, ApJ ).

Gopalswamy, N.↗

Study of same-sign W boson scattering and anomalous couplings in events with one tau lepton from pp collisions at $\sqrt{s}=13$ TeV

A first study is presented of the cross section for the scattering of same-sign W boson pairs via the detection of a τ lepton. The data from proton-proton collisions at the center-of-mass energy of 13 TeV were collected by the CMS detector at the LHC, and correspond to an integrated luminosity of 138 fb −1 . Events were selected that contain two jets with large pseudorapidity and large invariant mass, one τ lepton, one light lepton (e or μ), and significant missing transverse momentum. The measured cross section for electroweak same-sign WW scattering is $1.44^{+0.63}_{-0.56}$ times the standard model prediction. In addition, a search is presented for the indirect effects of processes beyond the standard model via the effective field theory framework, in terms of dimension-6 and dimension-8 operators.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

How Sample Completeness Affects Gamma-Ray Burst Classification

Unsupervised pattern recognition algorithms support the existence of three gamma-ray burst classes; class I (long, large fluence bursts of intermediate spectral hardness), Class II (short, small fluence, hard bursts), and class III (soft bursts of intermediate durations and fluences). The algorithms surprisingly assign larger membership to class III than to either of the other two classes. A known systematic bias has been previously used to explain the existence of class III in terms of class I; this bias allows the fluences and durations of some bursts to be underestimated. We show that this bias primarily affects only the longest bursts and cannot explain the bulk of the class III properties. We resolve the question of class III existence by demonstrating how samples obtained using standard trigger mechanisms fail to preserve the duration characteristics of small peak flux bursts: (Sample incompleteness is thus primarily responsible for the existence of class III.) In order to avoid this incompleteness, we show how a new dual timescale peak flux can be defined in terms of peak flux and fluence. The dual timescale peak flux reserves the duration distribution of faint bursts and correlates either with spectral hardness (and presumably redshift) than either peak flux or fluence. The techniques presented here are generic and have applicability to the studies of other transient events. The results also indicate that pattern recognition algorithms are sensitive to sample completeness; this can influence the study of large astronomical databases such as those found in a Virtual Observatory.

Hakkila, Jon↗

How Sample Completeness Affects Gamma-Ray Burst Classification

Unsupervised pattern-recognition algorithms support the existence of three gamma-ray burst classes: class 1 (long, large-fluence bursts of intermediate spectral hardness), class 2 (short, small-fluence, hard bursts), and class 3 (soft bursts of intermediate durations and fluences). The algorithms surprisingly assign larger membership to class 3 than to either of the other two classes. A known systematic bias has been previously used to explain the existence of class 3 in terms of class 1 ; this bias allows the fluences and durations of some bursts to be underestimated, as recently shown by Hakkila et al. We show that this bias primarily affects only the longest bursts and cannot explain the bulk of the class 3 properties. We resolve the question of class 3's existence by demonstrating how samples obtained using standard trigger mechanisms fail to preserve the duration characteristics of small-peak flux bursts. Sample incompleteness is thus primarily responsible for the existence of class 3. In order to avoid this incompleteness, we show how a new, dual-timescale peak flux can be defined in terms of peak flux and fluence. The dual-timescale peak flux preserves the duration distribution of faint bursts and correlates better with spectral hardness (and presumably redshift) than either peak flux or fluence. The techniques presented here are generic and have applicability to the studies of other transient events. The results also indicate that pattern recognition algorithms are sensitive to sample completeness; this can influence the study of large astronomical databases, such as those found in a virtual observatory.

Hakkila, Jon↗

Improving the Representation of Snow Crystal Properties with a Single-Moment Mircophysics Scheme

Single-moment microphysics schemes are utilized in an increasing number of applications and are widely available within numerical modeling packages, often executed in near real-time to aid in the issuance of weather forecasts and advisories. In order to simulate cloud microphysical and precipitation processes, a number of assumptions are made within these schemes. Snow crystals are often assumed to be spherical and of uniform density, and their size distribution intercept may be fixed to simplify calculation of the remaining parameters. Recently, the Canadian CloudSat/CALIPSO Validation Project (C3VP) provided aircraft observations of snow crystal size distributions and environmental state variables, sampling widespread snowfall associated with a passing extratropical cyclone on 22 January 2007. Aircraft instrumentation was supplemented by comparable surface estimations and sampling by two radars: the C-band, dual-polarimetric radar in King City, Ontario and the NASA CloudSat 94 GHz Cloud Profiling Radar. As radar systems respond to both hydrometeor mass and size distribution, they provide value when assessing the accuracy of cloud characteristics as simulated by a forecast model. However, simulation of the 94 GHz radar signal requires special attention, as radar backscatter is sensitive to the assumed crystal shape. Observations obtained during the 22 January 2007 event are used to validate assumptions of density and size distribution within the NASA Goddard six-class single-moment microphysics scheme. Two high resolution forecasts are performed on a 9-3-1 km grid, with C3VP-based alternative parameterizations incorporated and examined for improvement. In order to apply the CloudSat 94 GHz radar to model validation, the single scattering characteristics of various crystal types are used and demonstrate that the assumption of Mie spheres is insufficient for representing CloudSat reflectivity derived from winter precipitation. Furthermore, snow density and size distribution characteristics are allowed to vary with height, based upon direct aircraft estimates obtained from C3VP data. These combinations improve the representation of modeled clouds versus their radar-observed counterparts, based on profiles and vertical distributions of reflectivity. These meteorological events are commonplace within the mid-latitude cold season and present a challenge to operational forecasters. This study focuses on one event, likely representative of others during the winter season, and aims to improve the representation of snow for use in future operational forecasts.

Molthan, Andrew L.↗

Magnetotail Structure and its Internal Particle Dynamics During Northward IMF

This study uses Global magnetohydrodynamic (MHD) simulations driven by solar wind data along with Geotail observations of the magnetotail to investigate the magnetotail's response to changes in the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF); observed events used in the study occurred on March 29, 1993 and February 9, 1995. For events from February 9, 1995, we also use the time-dependent MHD magnetic and electric fields and the large-scale kinetic (LSK) technique to examine changes in the Geotail ion velocity distributions. Our MHD simulation shows that on March 29, 1993, during a long period of steady northward IMF, the tail was strongly squeezed and twisted around the Sun-Earth axis in response to variations in the IMF B(sub y) component. The mixed (magnetotail and magnetosheath) plasma observed by Geotail results from the spacecraft's close proximity to the magnetopause and its frequent crossings of this boundary. In our second example (February 9, 1995) the IMF was also steady and northward, and in addition had a significant B(sub y) component. Again the magnetotail was twisted, but not as strongly as on March 29, 1993. The Geotail spacecraft, located approximately 30 R(sub E) downtail, observed highly structured ion distribution functions. Using the time-dependent LSK technique, we investigate the ion sources and acceleration mechanisms affecting the Geotail distribution functions during this interval. At 1325 UT most ions are found to enter the magnetosphere on the dusk side earthward of Geotail with a secondary source on the dawn side in the low latitude boundary layer (LLBL). A small percentage come from the ionosphere. By 1347 UT the majority of the ions come from the dawn side LLBL. The distribution functions measured during the later time interval are much warmer, mainly because particles reaching the spacecraft from the dawnside are affected by nonadiabatic scattering and acceleration in the neutral sheet.

Ashour-Abdalia, M.↗

Magnetotail Structure and its Internal Particle Dynamics During Northward IMF

This study uses Global magnetohydrodynamic (MHD) simulations driven by solar wind data along with Geotail observations of the magnetotail to investigate the magnetotail's response to changes in the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF); observed events used in the study occurred on March 29, 1993 and February 9, 1995. For events from February 9, 1995, we also use the time-dependent MHD magnetic and electric fields and the large-scale kinetic (LSK) technique to examine changes in the Geotail ion velocity distributions. Our MHD simulation shows that on March 29, 1993, during a long period of steady northward IMF, the tail was strongly squeezed and twisted around the Sun-Earth axis in response to variations in the IMF B(sub y) component. The mixed (magnetotail and magnetosheath) plasma observed by Geotail results from the spacecraft's close proximity to the magnetopause and its frequent crossings of this boundary. In our second example (February 9, 1995) the IMF was also steady and northward, and in addition had a significant B(sub y) component. Again the magnetotail was twisted, but not as strongly as on March 29, 1993. The Geotail spacecraft, located approximately 30 R(sub E) downtail, observed highly structured ion distribution functions. Using the time-dependent LSK technique, we investigate the ion sources and acceleration mechanisms affecting the Geotail distribution functions during this interval. At 1325 UT most ions are found to enter the magnetosphere on the dusk side earthward of Geotail with a secondary source on the dawn side in the low latitude boundary layer (LLBL). A small percentage come from the ionosphere. By 1347 UT the majority of the ions come from the dawn side LLBL. The distribution functions measured during the later time interval are much warmer, mainly because particles reaching the spacecraft from the dawn side are affected by nonadiabatic scattering and acceleration in the neutral sheet.

Ashour-Abdalla, M.↗

A Unified Model of Cosmic-Ray Propagation and Radio Extreme Scattering Events from Intermittent Interstellar Structures

Intermittent magnetic structures are a plausible candidate for explaining cosmic-ray (CR) diffusion rates derived from observed CR energy spectra. Independently, studies of extreme scattering events (ESEs) of radio quasars and pulsar scintillation have hinted that very straight, large aspect ratio magnetic current sheets may be responsible for the localized large scattering of radio waves. The required shortest axis of the typical structures producing ESEs is of the same scale (∼au) as the gyroradii of ∼GeV CRs. In this Letter, we propose that the same magnetic/density sheets can produce large scattering of both CRs and radio waves. We demonstrate that the geometry and volume-filling factor of the sheets derived from quasar ESEs can explain the observed mean free path of GeV CRs without introducing free parameters. The model places constraints on the sheet geometry, such as straightness and large aspect ratio, and assumes that the statistics of the sheets are similar throughout the Galactic volume. We therefore discuss observational tests of the sheet model, which includes observations of echoes in pulsars and fast radio bursts, gravitationally lensed quasars, the distribution of ESE durations, and spatial correlations between ESE events and rotation measure fluctuations. Such tests will be enabled by upcoming wide-field radio instruments, including the Canadian Hydrogen Observatory and Radio-transient Detector and Deep Synoptic Array 2000 Antennas.

Kempski, Philipp [Princeton Univ., NJ (United Stat↗

Rigidity-independent coronal propagation and escape of solar protons and alpha particles

In a study of rigidity-independent coronal propagation processes, data on the azimuthal variation of the solar proton/alpha-particle ratio were obtained. Sources for the data included a statistical analysis of events observed by Heos-2, a comparative study of events recorded by both Heos-2 and Pioneer-10 and -11, and a multiday survey of individual events observed by Heos-2 and Pioneer-10. The statistical investigation of Heos-2 events reveals an increase of the lower value of the proton/alpha-particle ratio away from the well-connected region. The data from one or two spacecraft connected at different heliolongitudes indicates no azimuthal dependence of the proton/alpha-particle ratio. All the data appear to suggest rigidity-independent propagation or escape processes.

Perron, C.↗

Propagating synthetic populations with dynamic Bayesian networks: a framework for long-horizon demographic forecasting

This study presents a dynamic demographic microsimulator using dynamic Bayesian networks to forecast long–term changes in household and individual life events. Leveraging longitudinal Panel Study of Income Dynamics (PSID) data, two networks for individuals and households were modeled to simulate transitions in employment, income, education, marriage, childbirth, leaving the parental home, home ownership, mortality, and household formation or dissolution. Across 1,000 simulation runs spanning 24 years, household–level outcomes remain highly accurate and individual–level predictions reasonable. Although accuracy naturally declines with projection horizon, performance remains promising at both levels. This study addresses a key limitation of existing population synthesis models, which typically generate only a single static snapshot of the population. In conclusion, by introducing a framework that propagates cross-sectional outputs into the future, the microsimulator enables the tracking of demographic evolution over time, enhances realism in population-based simulations, and supplies credible inputs to agent-based travel demand models.

Demographic modeling↗