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At least 703 records · Page 39

Proton transparency and neutrino physics: New methods and modeling

Extracting accurate results from neutrino oscillation and cross section experiments requires accurate simulation of the neutrino-nucleus interaction. The rescattering of outgoing hadrons (final state interactions) by the rest of the nucleus is an important component of these interactions. We present a new measurement of proton transparency (defined as the fraction of outgoing protons that emerge without significant rescattering) using electron-nucleus scattering data recorded by the CLAS detector at Jefferson Laboratory on helium, carbon, and iron targets. This analysis uses a new data-driven method to extract the transparency. It defines transparency as the ratio of electron-scattering events with a detected proton to quasi-elastic electron-scattering events where a proton should have been knocked out. Our results are consistent with previous measurements that determined the transparency from the ratio of measured events to theoretically predicted events. We find that the GENIE event generator, which is widely used by oscillation experiments to simulate neutrino-nucleus interactions, needs to better describe both the nuclear ground state and proton rescattering in order to reproduce our measured transparency ratios, especially at lower proton momenta.

direct reactions↗

Search for $t\bar{t}H/A \rightarrow t\bar{t}t\bar{t}$ production in proton–proton collisions at $\sqrt{s}=13$ $\text {TeV}$ with the ATLAS detector

A search is presented for a heavy scalar (H) or pseudo-scalar (A) predicted by the two-Higgs-doublet models, where the H/A is produced in association with a top-quark pair $(t\bar{t}H/A),$ and with the H/A decaying into a $t\bar{t}$ pair. The full LHC Run 2 proton–proton collision data collected by the ATLAS experiment is used, corresponding to an integrated luminosity of $139~\text {fb}^{-1}.$ Events are selected requiring exactly one or two opposite-charge electrons or muons. Data-driven corrections are applied to improve the modelling of the $t\bar{t}$ +jets background in the regime with high jet and b-jet multiplicities. These include a novel multi-dimensional kinematic reweighting based on a neural network trained using data and simulations. An H/A-mass parameterised graph neural network is trained to optimise the signal-to-background discrimination. In combination with the previous search performed by the ATLAS Collaboration in the multilepton final state, the observed upper limits on the $t\bar{t}H/A \rightarrow t\bar{t}t\bar{t}$ production cross-section at 95% confidence level range between 14 fb and 5.0 fb for an H/A with mass between 400 GeV and 1000 GeV , respectively. Assuming that both the H and A contribute to the $t\bar{t}t\bar{t}$ cross-section, tan β values below 1.7 or 0.7 are excluded for a mass of 400 GeV or 1000 GeV , respectively. The results are also used to constrain a model predicting the pair production of a colour-octet scalar, with the scalar decaying into a $t\bar{t}$ pair.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

Major Influence of Tropical Volcanic Eruptions on the Stratospheric Aerosol Layer During the Last Decade

The variability of stratospheric aerosol loading between 1985 and 2010 is explored with measurements from SAGE II, CALIPSO, GOMOS/ENVISAT, and OSIRIS/Odin space-based instruments. We find that, following the 1991 eruption of Mount Pinatubo, stratospheric aerosol levels increased by as much as two orders of magnitude and only reached background levels between 1998 and 2002. From 2002 onwards, a systematic increase has been reported by a number of investigators. Recently, the trend, based on ground-based lidar measurements, has been tentatively attributed to an increase of SO2 entering the stratosphere associated with coal burning in Southeast Asia. However, we demonstrate with these satellite measurements that the observed trend is mainly driven by a series of moderate but increasingly intense volcanic eruptions primarily at tropical latitudes. These events injected sulfur directly to altitudes between 18 and 20 km. The resulting aerosol particles are slowly lofted into the middle stratosphere by the Brewer-Dobson circulation and are eventually transported to higher latitudes.

Vernier, Jean-Paul↗

In Situ Radiometric and Exposure Age Dating of the Martian Surface

We determined radiogenic and cosmogenic noble gases in a mudstone on the floor of Gale Crater. A K-Ar age of 4.21 +/- 0.35 billion years represents a mixture of detrital and authigenic components and confirms the expected antiquity of rocks comprising the crater rim. Cosmic-ray-produced 3He, 21Ne, and 36Ar yield concordant surface exposure ages of 78 T 30 million years. Surface exposure occurred mainly in the present geomorphic setting rather than during primary erosion and transport. Our observations are consistent with mudstone deposition shortly after the Gale impact or possibly in a later event of rapid erosion and deposition. The mudstone remained buried until recent exposure by wind-driven scarp retreat. Sedimentary rocks exposed by this mechanism may thus offer the best potential for organic biomarker preservation against destruction by cosmic radiation.

age dating↗

Sequential Symmetry-Breaking Events as a Synthetic Pathway for Chiral Gold Nanostructures with Spiral Geometries

Symmetry-breaking synthetic controls allow for nanostructure geometries that are counter to the underlying crystal symmetry of a material. If suitably applied, such controls provide the means to drive an isotropic metal along a growth pathway yielding a three-dimensional chiral geometry. In this work, we present a light-driven solution-based synthesis yielding helical gold spirals from substrate-bound seeds. The devised growth mode relies on three separate symmetry-breaking events ushered in by seeds lined with planar defects, a capping agent that severely frustrates early-stage growth, and the Coulombic repulsion that occurs when identically charged growth fronts collide. Together they combine to advance a growth pathway in which planar growth emanates from one side of the seed, advances to encircle the seed from both clockwise and counterclockwise directions, and then upon collision of the two growth fronts, sees one front rise above the other to realize a self-perpetuating three-dimensional spiral structure.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

System Validation on the Europa Clipper mission in Early Implementation Phase

NASA’s next flag-ship mission - Europa Clipper, will embark on a journey to Jupiter’s icy moon Europa in 2024 to assess its environment and habitability with a highly capable spacecraft. Post Jupiter-Orbit-Insertion, the spacecraft will be commanded to perform intricate, yet meticulously planned Europa flybys to perform science investigations using a suite of instruments, while withstanding Jupiter’s harsh radiation environment. The success of this mission is dependent on a well-coordinated project and its elements such as the flight hardware and software, the ground support and mission operations teams, procedures and other cross-cutting elements. The Europa Clipper project needs to ensure that these elements are realized at a reasonable confidence level prior to launch and other mission critical events. System Validation test and analysis activities exercise and confirm the integrity of the system of all project elements in the expected flight environment with reasonable stressing conditions. These activities go beyond system design requirements verification and are driven by validation objectives that describe the end-to-end functional and operational capabilities required during nominal and off-nominal flight-like scenarios and critical events. The challenges associated with validating that the Europa Clipper project as a whole can function and perform correctly to meet the intended mission objectives with the as-delivered capabilities of all of its elements are daunting. This paper discusses the systematic methodology established in the early implementation phase of the Europa Clipper project for developing System Validation activities and their validation objectives, and addressing any validation-related challenges on the project. Approaches include decomposition of mission objectives using activity timelines in the Mission Design plan for developing nominal scenarios, use of fault trees for exploring off-nominal cases and system boundaries, and use of Model-based Systems Engineering (MBSE) tools for planning and prioritizing these activities.

Wang, Xu↗

Developing a Reduced 240-Bus WECC Dynamic Model for Frequency Response Study of High Renewable Integration

The ongoing changes in the generation resource mix, driven by the rapid adoption of inverter-based resources (IBR) as well as the early retirement of synchronous generators, are bringing new challenges to the planning and operation of bulk electric power systems. Consequently, there is an increasing need to understand, design, and quantify the reliability service provision from IBRs by performing integrated scheduling and dynamic simulations. However, test systems that have consistent scheduling and dynamic models rarely exist largely because of the decoupled nature of the two simulations on a synchronous generator-dominated system. This paper develops the dynamic model of a reduced Western Electricity Coordinating Council (WECC) system. In conjunction with the existing scheduling model, it is suitable for integrating scheduling and dynamic simulations. The reduced 240-bus WECC model reflects the generation resource mix of the Western Interconnection as of 2018. Moreover, the developed dynamic model is validated against field frequency events measured by FNET/GridEye and preserves the dominant inter-area oscillation mode in WECC.

dynamic simulation↗

Simulation of the Solar Energetic Particle Event on 2020 May 29 Observed by Parker Solar Probe

This paper presents a stochastic three-dimensional focused transport simulation of solar energetic particles (SEPs) produced by a data-driven coronal mass ejection (CME) shock propagating through a data-driven model of coronal and heliospheric magnetic fields. The injection of SEPs at the CME shock is treated using diffusive shock acceleration of post-shock suprathermal solar wind ions. A time-backward stochastic simulation is employed to solve the transport equation to obtain the SEP time–intensity profile at any location, energy, and pitch angle. The model is applied to a SEP event on 2020 May 29, observed by STEREO-A close to ∼1 au and by Parker Solar Probe (PSP) when it was about 0.33 au away from the Sun. The SEP event was associated with a very slow CME with a plane-of-sky speed of 337 km s −1 at a height below 6 RS as reported in the SOHO/LASCO CME catalog. We compute the time profiles of particle flux at PSP and STEREO-A locations, and estimate both the spectral index of the proton energy spectrum for energies between ∼2 and 16 MeV and the equivalent path length of the magnetic field lines experienced by the first arriving SEPs. We find that the simulation results are well correlated with observations. The SEP event could be explained by the acceleration of particles by a weak CME shock in the low solar corona that is not magnetically connected to the observers.

Solar energetic particles↗

Harvest legacies and climate change interact to shape forest structure and biomass through time

Forest structural change driven by climate trends has been observed worldwide and is expected to increase in the future. Management of forest structure has been an important tool for mitigating the impacts of climate change but forest structure may shift independently of management goals as it interacts with climate change. Here, we investigated the long-term impacts of harvest-based management strategies on structure and resistance to climate-induced biomass loss using a process-based ecosystem model for a midwestern USA hardwood forest. We identified aboveground biomass loss events and compared the cumulative number of these events following a five-year period of active management under four management strategies and two climate change scenarios. Management legacy had the clearest impact on climate-driven biomass loss over the mid-term (∼25 years) with the shelterwood scenario experiencing no loss events during this period. However, by the end of the century legacy effects faded and climate change severity became the driver of differences as greater warming scenarios experienced twice the loss events, and end-of-century loss events were 3–10 times more frequent than mid-century events. We found that while structure was distinct among harvest scenarios through the mid-century, differences were negligible by the end-of-century; identical to when management correlated with loss event frequency. Here, we found that loss events were preceded by a drop in precipitation two years prior, while no specific forest structure preceded a loss event. However, the structures preceding a biomass loss event were distinct across different legacies, implying additional influences of past management.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Storm-driven Mixing and Potential Impact on the Arctic Ocean

Observations of the ocean, atmosphere, and ice made by Ice-Ocean Environmental Buoys (IOEBs) indicate that mixing events reaching the depth of the halocline have occurred in various regions in the Arctic Ocean. Our analysis suggests that these mixing events were mechanically forced by intense storms moving across the buoy sites. In this study, we analyzed these mixing events in the context of storm developments that occurred in the Beaufort Sea and in the general area just north of Fram Strait, two areas with quite different hydrographic structures. The Beaufort Sea is strongly influenced by inflow of Pacific water through Bering Strait, while the area north of Fram Strait is directly affected by the inflow of warm and salty North Atlantic water. Our analyses of the basin-wide evolution of the surface pressure and geostrophic wind fields indicate that the characteristics of the storms could be very different. The buoy-observed mixing occurred only in the spring and winter seasons when the stratification was relatively weak. This indicates the importance of stratification, although the mixing itself was mechanically driven. We also analyze the distribution of storms, both the long-term climatology as well as the patterns for each year in the last two decades. The frequency of storms is also shown to be correlated- (but not strongly) to Arctic Oscillation indices. This study indicates that the formation of new ice that leads to brine rejection is unlikely the mechanism that results in the type of mixing that could overturn the halocline. On the other hand, synoptic-scale storms can force mixing deep enough to the halocline and thermocline layer. Despite a very stable stratification associated with the Arctic halocline, the warm subsurface thermocline water is not always insulated from the mixed layer.

Yang, Jiayan↗

Behavior of an air-cooled thermosiphon during a non-air gas ingress event

Here, this study investigates the transient response of an air-cooled thermosiphon subjected to a sudden non-air gas ingress event. Results presented are from experimental testing conducted on a large-scale thermal hydraulic facility that examines heat removal performance of the Reactor Cavity Cooling System (RCCS) concept, a passive safety system for advanced nuclear reactors. Relying on buoyancy driven natural circulation flow, these systems feature a series of riser standpipes and coupled chimney network that provide a pathway for heat rejection to the atmosphere. In this work, the facility was modified to allow a transition of the draft intake from normal ambient air, to draft intake from an open-top volume containing high purity argon. Testing began by establishing normal operation and allowing the facility to reach steady-state thermal hydraulic flow conditions with natural air draft. The transitioned sequence was then initiated which simultaneously changed the inlet boundary from open air to a pathway from the quiescent argon volume. This event caused 1,200 cu-feet of the heavy gas, twice the internal volume of total facility flow path, to be drawn into the inlet plenum and ingress into the heated riser standpipes. With the upper chimney network still containing residual air, there was insufficient density difference to maintain buoyancy driven natural circulation. After a period of only 90 s past the ingress event, the facility experienced complete flow stagnation before entering an extended period of severely degraded system flow. Due to the cessation of bulk fluid movement and subsequent failure of its heat removal function, fluid and structural temperatures began to rise sharply. Re-circulation patterns developed within the multiple parallel riser standpipes, where hot gas near the outlets was observed to travel downward and re-enter the inlet of adjacent channels. After approximately 18-minutes, fluid temperatures and their associated density difference rose to a level sufficient to allow reestablishment of buoyancy driven system flow, and ultimately, recovery of facility operation to normal behavior.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Analysis of Voyager Observed High-Energy Electron Fluxes in the Heliosheath Using MHD Simulations

The Voyager spacecraft (V1 and V2) observed electrons of 6-14 MeV in the heliosheath which showed several incidences of flux variation relative to a background of gradually increasing flux with distance from the Sun. The increasing flux of background electrons is thought to result from inward radial diffusion. We compare the temporal electron flux variation with dynamical phenomena in the heliosheath that are obtained from our MHD simulations. Because our simulation is based on V2 observed plasma data before V2 crossed the termination shock, this analysis is effective up to late 2008, i.e., about a year after the V2-crossing, during which disturbances, driven prior to the crossing time, survived in the heliosheath. Several electron flux variations correspond to times directly associated with interplanetary shock events. One noteworthy example corresponds to various times associated with the March 2006 interplanetary shock, these being the collision with the termination shock, the passage past the V1 spacecraft, and the collision with the region near the heliopause, as identified by W.R. Webber et al. for proton/helium of 7-200 MeV. Our simulations indicate that all other electron flux variations, except one, correspond well to the times when a shock-driven magneto-sonic pulse and its reflection in the heliosheath either passed across V1/V2, or collided with the termination shock or with the plasma sheet near the heliopause. This result suggests that variation in the electron flux should be due to either direct or indirect effects of magnetosonic pulses in the heliosheath driven by interplanetary shocks

Washimi, Haruichi↗

Model for current drive induced crash cycles in W7-X

In the Wendelstein 7-X (W7-X) stellarator, the vacuum rotational transform, ι, has a flat radial profile and does not cross any major rational resonance. Nevertheless, during plasma operation the ι–profile can be strongly modified by electron cyclotron current drive in such a way that the resulting ι-profile passes through low-order rational values, and this can trigger magnetohydrodynamic (MHD) events. Indeed, W7-X plasmas are sometimes subject to repetitive collapses of core confinement, which can be observed regardless of the direction in which the EC current is driven. Even though the origin of these MHD instabilities is under investigation, the crashes may be connected to the formation of magnetic islands and magnetic reconnection. In the present work, we try to shed light on the dynamics of different events happening during the course of sawtooth cycles in W7-X by proposing a model that combines a slow current diffusion with a recipe for fast relaxation that conserves the corresponding helical flux (Kadomtsev 1975 Fiz. Plazmy 1 710–15). We also propose a simple model based on Taylor relaxation (Taylor 1974 Phys. Rev. Lett. 33 1139), (Taylor 1986 Rev. Mod. Phys. 58 741) to predict the nonlinear redistribution of plasma current caused by the largest of the observed events.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

Classification and Localization of Fracture-Hit Events in Low-Frequency Distributed Acoustic Sensing Strain Rate with Convolutional Neural Networks

Summary Distributed acoustic sensing (DAS) has been used in the oil and gas industry as an advanced technology for surveillance and diagnostics. Operators use DAS to monitor hydraulic fracturing activities, examine well stimulation efficacy, and estimate complex fracture system geometries. Particularly, low-frequency DAS can detect geomechanical events such as fracture hits because hydraulic fractures propagate and create strain rate variations in the rock. Analysis of DAS data today is mostly done post-job and subject to interpretation methods. However, the continuous and dense data stream generated live by DAS poses the opportunity for more efficient and accurate real-time data-driven analysis. The objective of this study is to develop a machine learning-based workflow that can identify and locate fracture-hit events in simulated strain rate responses correlated with low-frequency DAS data. In this paper, “fracture hit” refers to a hydraulic fracture originating from a stimulated well intersecting an offset well. We start with building a single fracture propagation model to produce strain rate patterns observed at a hypothetical monitoring well. This model is used to generate two sets of strain rate responses with one set containing fracture-hit events. The labeled synthetic data are then used to train a custom convolutional neural network (CNN) model for identifying the presence of fracture-hit events. The same model is trained again for locating the event with the output layer of the model replaced with linear units. We achieved near-perfect predictions for both event classification and localization. These promising results prove the feasibility of using CNN for real-time event detection from fiber-optic sensing data. Additionally, we use edge detection techniques to recognize fracture-hit event patterns in strain rate images. The fracture-hit location can be identified using recognized pixels in the image. The accuracy of edge detection-based location identification is also plausible, but edge detection is dependent on the assumption of pattern shape and image quality, hence it is less robust compared to CNN models. This comparison further supports the need for CNN applications in image-based real-time fiber-optic sensing event detection.

Engineering↗

Using a physics-informed neural network and fault zone acoustic monitoring to predict lab earthquakes

Abstract Predicting failure in solids has broad applications including earthquake prediction which remains an unattainable goal. However, recent machine learning work shows that laboratory earthquakes can be predicted using micro-failure events and temporal evolution of fault zone elastic properties. Remarkably, these results come from purely data-driven models trained with large datasets. Such data are equivalent to centuries of fault motion rendering application to tectonic faulting unclear. In addition, the underlying physics of such predictions is poorly understood. Here, we address scalability using a novel Physics-Informed Neural Network (PINN). Our model encodes fault physics in the deep learning loss function using time-lapse ultrasonic data. PINN models outperform data-driven models and significantly improve transfer learning for small training datasets and conditions outside those used in training. Our work suggests that PINN offers a promising path for machine learning-based failure prediction and, ultimately for improving our understanding of earthquake physics and prediction.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Integrated Metrics for County-Level Resilience Ranking Using Entropy and TOPSIS

In the face of atypical weather events, power infrastructure failures, and limited resources for resilience investment, energy decision-makers need data-driven metrics to allocate resilience investments and maximize the reduction of power outage impacts. For state-level planning, for instance, ranking the resilience of each county is key to ensuring effective distribution of resources. In such cases, resilience for each spatial unit is multifaceted and is captured by a set of indicators (i.e., metrics) that can be combined into an overall score that reduces the complexity of power outage dynamics to a single decision metric. However, weighting of these indicators is often addressed by simplifying assumptions (i.e., equal weights) or semi-subjective methods that rely on user-defined weights that can introduce biases (e.g., weighted average score). Within the disaster risk reduction and resilience engineering community, a recurring challenge in multicriteria decision-making is the objective weighting of indicators for composite indices. To address this issue, we have leveraged a Technique for Order of Preference by Similarity to Ideal Solution (TOPSIS) combined with an entropy-based weighting approach to calculated the integrated scores. This method objectively determines the importance of each metric, better discerns between spatial units (i.e., counties), and offers a more reliable ranking of counties according to their relative resilience attributes. By improving methods for integrating resilience indicators, our approach helps planners and decision-makers prioritize resources more effectively for more efficient resilience investments.

Bhusal, Narayan [Oak Ridge National Laboratory (OR↗

Interactions between Climate Change and Complex Topography Drive Observed Streamflow Changes in the Colorado River Basin

Abstract The Colorado River basin (CRB) is one of the most important watersheds for energy, water, and food security in the United States. CRB water supports 15% of U.S. food production, more than 50 GW of electricity capacity, and one of the fastest growing populations in the United States. Energy–water–food nexus impacts from climate change are projected to increase in the CRB. These include a higher incidence of extreme events, widespread snow-to-rain regime shifts, and a higher frequency and magnitude of climate-driven disturbances. Here, we empirically show how the historical annual streamflow maximum and hydrograph centroid timing relate to temperature, precipitation, and snow. In addition, we show how these hydroclimatic relationships vary with elevation and how the elevation dependence has changed over this historical observational record. We find temperature and precipitation have a relatively weak relation (|r| < 0.3) to interannual variations in streamflow timing and extremes at low elevations (<1500 m), but a relatively strong relation (|r| > 0.5) at high elevations (>2300 m) where more snow occurs in the CRB. The threshold elevation where this relationship is strongest (|r| > 0.5) is moving uphill at a rate of up to 4.8 m yr−1 (p = 0.11) and 6.1 m yr−1 (p = 0.01) for temperature and precipitation, respectively. Based on these findings, we hypothesize where warming and precipitation-related streamflow changes are likely to be most severe using a watershed-scale vulnerability map to prioritize areas for further research and to inform energy, water, and food resource management in the CRB.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗