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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 703 records · Page 39

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NASA NTRS2014

Background Error Covariance Estimation Using Information from a Single Model Trajectory with Application to Ocean Data Assimilation

An attractive property of ensemble data assimilation methods is that they provide flow dependent background error covariance estimates which can be used to update fields of observed variables as well as fields of unobserved model variables. Two methods to estimate background error covariances are introduced which share the above property with ensemble data assimilation methods but do not involve the integration of multiple model trajectories. Instead, all the necessary covariance information is obtained from a single model integration. The Space Adaptive Forecast error Estimation (SAFE) algorithm estimates error covariances from the spatial distribution of model variables within a single state vector. The Flow Adaptive error Statistics from a Time series (FAST) method constructs an ensemble sampled from a moving window along a model trajectory.SAFE and FAST are applied to the assimilation of Argo temperature profiles into version 4.1 of the Modular Ocean Model (MOM4.1) coupled to the GEOS-5 atmospheric model and to the CICE sea ice model. The results are validated against unassimilated Argo salinity data. They show that SAFE and FAST are competitive with the ensemble optimal interpolation (EnOI) used by the Global Modeling and Assimilation Office (GMAO) to produce its ocean analysis. Because of their reduced cost, SAFE and FAST hold promise for high-resolution data assimilation applications.

Error Covariance↗

NASA NTRS2014

Background Error Covariance Estimation using Information from a Single Model Trajectory with Application to Ocean Data Assimilation into the GEOS-5 Coupled Model

An attractive property of ensemble data assimilation methods is that they provide flow dependent background error covariance estimates which can be used to update fields of observed variables as well as fields of unobserved model variables. Two methods to estimate background error covariances are introduced which share the above property with ensemble data assimilation methods but do not involve the integration of multiple model trajectories. Instead, all the necessary covariance information is obtained from a single model integration. The Space Adaptive Forecast error Estimation (SAFE) algorithm estimates error covariances from the spatial distribution of model variables within a single state vector. The Flow Adaptive error Statistics from a Time series (FAST) method constructs an ensemble sampled from a moving window along a model trajectory. SAFE and FAST are applied to the assimilation of Argo temperature profiles into version 4.1 of the Modular Ocean Model (MOM4.1) coupled to the GEOS-5 atmospheric model and to the CICE sea ice model. The results are validated against unassimilated Argo salinity data. They show that SAFE and FAST are competitive with the ensemble optimal interpolation (EnOI) used by the Global Modeling and Assimilation Office (GMAO) to produce its ocean analysis. Because of their reduced cost, SAFE and FAST hold promise for high-resolution data assimilation applications.

Data Assimilation↗

NASA NTRS2017

Human Error Assessment and Reduction Technique (HEART) and Human Factor Analysis and Classification System (HFACS)

Research results have shown that more than half of aviation, aerospace and aeronautics mishaps incidents are attributed to human error. As a part of Quality within space exploration ground processing operations, the identification and or classification of underlying contributors and causes of human error must be identified, in order to manage human error.This presentation will provide a framework and methodology using the Human Error Assessment and Reduction Technique (HEART) and Human Factor Analysis and Classification System (HFACS), as an analysis tool to identify contributing factors, their impact on human error events, and predict the Human Error probabilities (HEPs) of future occurrences. This research methodology was applied (retrospectively) to six (6) NASA ground processing operations scenarios and thirty (30) years of Launch Vehicle related mishap data. This modifiable framework can be used and followed by other space and similar complex operations.

human error↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Empirical State Error Covariance Matrix for Batch Estimation

State estimation techniques effectively provide mean state estimates. However, the theoretical state error covariance matrices provided as part of these techniques often suffer from a lack of confidence in their abilities to describe the true uncertainty in the estimated states. By a reinterpretation of the equations involved in the weighted least squares algorithm, it is possible to directly arrive at an empirical state error covariance matrix. This proposed empirical state error covariance matrix will contain the effect of all error sources, known or unknown. Results are presented for a simple, two observer, measurement error only problem.

Estimation↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Effects of Dose Error and Sample Size on Sonic Boom Dose-response Curves

NASA will soon be collecting noise-annoyance community survey data as the X-59 aircraft flies supersonically over several communities in the USA. Sparse measurements of the X-59 sonic thumps will be used together with physics-based simulations to estimate noise doses at survey participant locations. These dose estimates have associated error that affects the accuracy of modeled dose-response curves, which can result in misestimation of annoyance. The precision in dose-response curves is also a consideration in selecting the number of survey participants. To enable pretest studies of dose error and precision, simulated dose-response data were generated based on NASA’s Quiet Supersonic Flights 2018 test. The data included various degrees of dose error and sample size. Frequentist multilevel logistic regression models were fit to the true and perturbed dose-response data. Simple proportional relationships were identified between the model parameters and the perturbation standard deviation. The summary dose-response curves illustrate the impact on accuracy if dose error is not accounted for in the model. The precision in the dose-response curves is also shown as the number of participants and degree of participation is varied. Finally, sampling variability is illustrated by showing the dose-response curves for several replicates with random draws of participants and errors.

X-59↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Effects of Dose Error and Sample Size on Sonic Boom Dose-Response Curves

X-59↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Dose Error Correction Using Simulation Extrapolation for Community Noise Dose-Response Modeling

The objective of this work is to provide a framework to account and correct for dose error in dose-response modeling due to measurement uncertainty. Error in noise measurements, especially in the case of limited monitoring locations in a community, can lead to an attenuation or misestimation of parameters in dose-response models. This error can result in overpredicted annoyance at lower doses and underpredicted annoyance at higher doses. Simulated data in the present work are based on previous NASA community studies and incorporate a notional design for future studies with the X-59 aircraft. Several populations of different annoyance response sensitivities are included. Simulation extrapolation (SIMEX, Cook and Stefanski 1994) is used to correct for the dose error in a simple, fully pooled logistic regression. Results indicate the negative impact of attenuation is greatly diminished for all amounts of dose error considered, regardless of a population’s annoyance sensitivity. Therefore, SIMEX can help produce a more accurate dose-response relationship.

SIMEX↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Modeling Measurement Error in Dose-Response Models of Community Annoyance to Low-Noise Supersonic Flight

The primary research goal of the forthcoming NASA Quesst mission community test campaign is to collect representative community response data in support of the development of supersonic overflight noise certification standards. Beginning in 2026, NASA will fly the novel X-59 demonstrator aircraft over select communities in United States in order to demonstrate the possibility of low-noise supersonic flight over land and to collect objective measurements and subjective data on the perceptual experience of this new noise source. It is believed that a regression of a binary perceptual response (‘highly annoyed’ or ‘not’) on estimated noise levels (doses, measured in decibels) will provide a useful dose-response relationship for regulators. However, as these estimated doses will be subject to measurement error, naïve estimators of regression coefficients are inconsistent and slopes may be subject to attenuation bias. In this presentation, I contrast functional modeling of measurement error via simulation extrapolation (SIMEX) with structural Bayesian measurement error models. These methods are applied to available data collected during two NASA risk reduction studies in California in 2011 and Texas in 2018. I’ll conclude noting that in the presence of nonnegligible measurement errors, probabilities of annoyance may be overpredicted for low noise levels and underpredicted for high noise levels, therefore, methods of correcting for measurement error will be necessary to improve the utility of the dose-response relationship for policy-making purposes.

simulation↗

DOE OSTI2023

A Bayesian Approach for Characterizing and Mitigating Gate and Measurement Errors

Various noise models have been developed in quantum computing study to describe the propagation and effect of the noise that is caused by imperfect implementation of hardware. Identifying parameters such as gate and readout error rates is critical to these models. We use a Bayesian inference approach to identify posterior distributions of these parameters such that they can be characterized more elaborately. By characterizing the device errors in this way, we can further improve the accuracy of quantum error mitigation. Experiments conducted on IBM’s quantum computing devices suggest that our approach provides better error mitigation performance than existing techniques used by the vendor. Also, our approach outperforms the standard Bayesian inference method in some scenarios.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2015

Radiative flux and forcing parameterization error in aerosol-free clear skies

This article reports on the accuracy in aerosol- and cloud-free conditions of the radiation parameterizations used in climate models. Accuracy is assessed relative to observationally validated reference models for fluxes under present-day conditions and forcing (flux changes) from quadrupled concentrations of carbon dioxide. Agreement among reference models is typically within 1 W/m 2 , while parameterized calculations are roughly half as accurate in the longwave and even less accurate, and more variable, in the shortwave. Absorption of shortwave radiation is underestimated by most parameterizations in the present day and has relatively large errors in forcing. Error in present-day conditions is essentially unrelated to error in forcing calculations. Recent revisions to parameterizations have reduced error in most cases. As a result, a dependence on atmospheric conditions, including integrated water vapor, means that global estimates of parameterization error relevant for the radiative forcing of climate change will require much more ambitious calculations.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2021

Fast Correction of Errors in the DFT‐Calculated Energies of Gaseous Nitrogen‐Containing Species

Abstract Modeling adsorption phenomena on surfaces by DFT calculations often involves substantial errors, resulting in inaccurate predictions of catalytic activities. Such errors partly stem from the inaccurate description of the energetics of free molecules. Herein, we use a semiempirical group‐additivity method to correct the DFT‐calculated heats of formation of 106 carbon‐ and nitrogen‐containing gaseous compounds belonging to 15 different chemical families. PBE, PW91, RPBE and BEEF‐vdW initially yield mean absolute errors (MAEs) with respect to experiments in the range of 0.32–0.75 eV. After correcting the systematic errors, the overall MAEs decrease to ∼0.05 eV. Additionally, upon applying the corrections to three types of reaction enthalpies, the resulting MAEs are below 0.10 eV. These functional‐group corrections can be used in (electro)catalysis to correct the gas‐phase references necessary to evaluate equilibrium potentials and adsorption energies, predict error cancellation, and assess conflicting experimental data.

Urrego‐Ortiz, Ricardo↗

DOE OSTI2024

Halogen Thermochemistry Assessed with Density Functional Theory: Systematic Errors, Swift Corrections and Effects on Electrochemistry

Abstract Despite its sizable errors, density functional theory (DFT) is extensively used to evaluate thermochemical properties of gases, liquids and their interfaces with solids. As numerous halogen‐containing compounds appear as reactants, products and/or electrolytes in electrochemical reactions, and ionic effects are currently an active area of research, it is important to evaluate the accuracy of DFT for halogen thermochemistry. Herein, we assess the formation energies of interhalogens, hydrogen halides, diatomic and atomic halogens and their ions using six widespread functionals at the GGA, meta‐GGA and hybrid levels. We observe that DFT errors with respect to experiments are correlated with the electronegativity of the species and there are systematic trends across functionals, such that swift corrections were devised. Specifically, the average of the mean absolute errors for the six functionals decreased from 0.19 eV before the corrections to 0.08 eV after them. Besides, the overall maximum absolute error (MAX) decreased from 0.76 to 0.44 eV and the average of the MAXs decreased from 0.51 to 0.24 eV. Finally, we illustrate the qualitative and quantitative impact of gas‐phase errors on the predictions of surface Pourbaix diagrams.

Chemistry↗

DOE OSTI2019

Eigenstate thermalization hypothesis and approximate quantum error correction

The eigenstate thermalization hypothesis (ETH) is a powerful conjecture for understanding how statistical mechanics emerges in a large class of many-body quantum systems. It has also been interpreted in a CFT context, and, in particular, holographic CFTs are expected to satisfy ETH. Recently, it was observed that the ETH condition corresponds to a necessary and sufficient condition for an approximate quantum error correcting code (AQECC), implying the presence of AQECCs in systems satisfying ETH. In this paper, we explore the properties of ETH as an error correcting code and show that there exists an explicit universal recovery channel for the code. Based on the analysis, we discuss a generalization that all chaotic theories contain error correcting codes. We then specialize to AdS/CFT to demonstrate the possibility of total bulk reconstruction in black holes with a well-defined macroscopic geometry. When combined with the existing AdS/CFT error correction story, this shows that black holes are enormously robust against erasure errors.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2023

Quantum error correction from complexity in Brownian SYK

We study the robustness of quantum error correction in a one-parameter ensemble of codes generated by the Brownian SYK model, where the parameter quantifies the encoding complexity. The robustness of error correction by a quantum code is upper bounded by the “mutual purity” of a certain entangled state between the code subspace and environment in the isometric extension of the error channel, where the mutual purity of a density matrix ρAB is the difference $\mathcal{F}$ p ($A : B$) ≡ $\mathrm{T}$r $p^{2}_{AB}$ - $\mathrm{T}$r $p^{2}_{A}$ $\mathrm{T}$r $p^{2}_{B}$. We show that when the encoding complexity is small, the mutual purity is O(1) for the erasure of a small number of qubits (i.e., the encoding is fragile). However, this quantity decays exponentially, becoming O(1/N) for O(log N) encoding complexity. Further, at polynomial encoding complexity, the mutual purity saturates to a plateau of O(e -N ). We also find a hierarchy of complexity scales associated to a tower of subleading contributions to the mutual purity that quantitatively, but not qualitatively, adjust our error correction bound as encoding complexity increases. In the AdS/CFT context, our results suggest that any portion of the entanglement wedge of a general boundary subregion A with sufficiently high encoding complexity is robustly protected against low-rank errors acting on A with no prior access to the encoding map. From the bulk point of view, we expect such bulk degrees of freedom to be causally inaccessible from the region A despite being encoded in it.

1/N expansion↗

DOE OSTI2018

Effects of exposure estimation errors on estimated exposure-response relations for PM2.5

Highlights: • Recent literature has identified associations between concentrations of fine particulate matter (PM2.5) in ambient air and adverse health effects at estimated exposure concentrations below current air ambient quality standards. • The models and analyses used do not usually quantify uncertainty about exposure estimates. • Realistic errors in exposure estimates can be estimated from available air quality monitoring stations by predicting concentrations at each station from concentrations at neighboring stations. • Exposure estimation errors are large enough to obscure low-dose nonlinearities or thresholds in the true concentration-response (C-R) function, artificially making them appear to be linear at low doses. • Better estimates of C-R functions will require modeling exposure distributions and estimation errors, rather than just estimating average exposure concentrations. Associations between fine particulate matter (PM2.5) exposure concentrations and a wide variety of undesirable outcomes, from autism and auto theft to elderly mortality, suicide, and violent crime, have been widely reported. Influential articles have argued that reducing National Ambient Air Quality Standards for PM2.5 is desirable to reduce these outcomes. Yet, other studies have found that reducing black smoke and other particulate matter by as much as 70% and dozens of micrograms per cubic meter has not detectably affected all-cause mortality rates even after decades, despite strong, statistically significant positive exposure concentration-response (C-R) associations between them. This paper examines whether this disconnect between association and causation might be explained in part by ignored estimation errors in estimated exposure concentrations. We use EPA air quality monitor data from the Los Angeles area of California to examine the shapes of estimated C-R functions for PM2.5 when the true C-R functions are assumed to be step functions with well-defined response thresholds. The estimated C-R functions mistakenly show risk as smoothly increasing with concentrations even well below the response thresholds, thus incorrectly predicting substantial risk reductions from reductions in concentrations that do not affect health risks. We conclude that ignored estimation errors obscure the shapes of true C-R functions, including possible thresholds, possibly leading to unrealistic predictions of the changes in risk caused by changing exposures. Instead of estimating improvements in public health per unit reduction (e.g., per 10 µg/m{sup 3} decrease) in average PM2.5 concentrations, it may be essential to consider how interventions change the distributions of exposure concentrations.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2026

Using Density-Corrected DFT to Understand Density-Driven and Functional-Dependent Errors in Ab Initio Simulations of the Hydrated Electron

The hydrated electron, an excess electron in liquid water, plays a crucial role in a plethora of chemical processes, motivating extensive research efforts to characterize its structure, dynamics, and reactivity in solution. Recent theoretical approaches to understanding this intriguing object have involved ab initio simulations based on density functional theory (DFT). Although DFT allows for the study of hydrated electron reactivity and quantum mechanical behavior, it is well-known that anionic systems can suffer from significant density-driven errors (DDEs). Density-corrected DFT (DC-DFT) provides a framework to mitigate such errors; the method reduces DDEs by replacing the self-consistent (SC) density associated with a given density functional with the Hartree–Fock (HF) density. Since HF densities tend to be more localized than DFT SC densities, the DC-DFT scheme significantly improves errors in calculations where the SC density is spuriously delocalized. Here, we investigate how the use of density correction affects the calculated properties of the DFT-simulated (PBEh) hydrated electron, a particularly challenging diffuse anionic system to simulate. First, we analyze charge delocalization in a system consisting of a model octahedral hydrated electron water cluster (the so-called Kevan structure) along with a spatially separated sulfur atom. We show that the use of density correction indeed reduces DDEs in comparison to a standard DFT global hybrid functional. We then propagate molecular dynamics trajectories of the hydrated electron using DC-DFT, where we find that DC further localizes electron density in the cavity region, a signature of reduced charge delocalization. Unfortunately, the decreased radius of gyration of the spin density and corresponding tightening of the local solvation structure from density correction causes predicted observables to deviate further from experimental measurements than when density correction is not employed. Here, we argue that DC’s worse agreement with experiment results from the removal of a fortuitous cancellation of errors that is intrinsic to the PBEh functional. This indicates that the difficulties with DFT to simulate hydrated electrons are primarily due to the inherent approximations in DFT rather than to density-driven errors.

Density functional theory↗

DOE OSTI2021

A novel network-based approach to determining measurement representation error for model evaluation of aerosol microphysical properties

Atmospheric aerosol size and abundance influence radiative effects and climate change. To date, efforts to constrain global climate models’ radiative forcing with in situ aerosol observations have been hamstrung by uncertainty. One source of error, the regional “representation error,” arises when accurate but sparse single-point measurements of atmospheric aerosol distributions are compared with a model value, assuming that the single-point measurement is representative of the model domain. The Portable Optical Particle Spectrometer network in the Southern Great Plains (POPSnet-SGP) campaign has demonstrated that a network of nearly autonomous aerosol instruments operating at ambient temperature and relative humidity (with low measurement error) may be used to quantify measurement representation error and investigate the factors introducing heterogeneity in aerosol distributions across a rural, continental background region. Measurements were made using Portable Optical Particle Spectrometer (POPS) instruments at several sites for five months across the Department of Energy’s Aerosol Radiation Measurement Southern Great Plains (ARM-SGP) User Facility in the central USA. Measurement representation error decreased with longer averaging periods (20-40 % between 1 sec and 1 day), varied between sites by 10 – 20 % for aerosol concentration 140 – 2500 nm in diameter (N_140), and was higher for aerosols > 400 nm in diameter (N_400). Our measurements also show the influence of local meteorology on aerosol surface area (A_140) and size distributions: A_140 is positively correlated with wind speed and relative humidity, negatively correlated with precipitation, and lower given westerly winds. Based on this study, we conclude that the POPSnet approach provides considerably more insight into the spatial variability in the aerosol population that can be used to constrain climate models than would be available from similar networks of PM 2.5 monitors.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2025

Synchronous detection of cosmic rays and correlated errors in superconducting qubit arrays

Quantum information processing at scale will require sufficiently stable and long-lived qubits, likely enabled by error-correction codes. Several recent superconducting-qubit experiments, however, reported observing intermittent spatiotemporally correlated errors that would be problematic for conventional codes, with ionizing radiation being a likely cause. Here, we directly measured the cosmic-ray contribution to spatiotemporally correlated qubit errors. We accomplished this by synchronously monitoring cosmic-ray detectors and qubit energy-relaxation dynamics of 10 transmon qubits distributed across a 5 × 5 × 0.35 mm 3 silicon chip. Cosmic rays caused correlated errors at a rate of $1/\left(592\begin{array}{c}+48\\ -41\end{array}\,{\rm{s}}\right)$, accounting for 17.1 ± 1.3% of all such events. Our qubits responded to essentially all of the cosmic rays and their secondary particles incident on the chip, consistent with the independently measured arrival flux. Moreover, we observed that the landscape of the superconducting gap in proximity to the Josephson junctions dramatically impacts the qubit response to cosmic rays. Given the practical difficulties associated with shielding cosmic rays, our results indicate the importance of radiation hardening—for example, superconducting gap engineering—to the realization of robust quantum error correction.

Science & Technology - Other Topics↗