Engineering Papers⌕ Search

SEARCH · Engineering Papers

Results for “error estimation and analysis”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 703 records · Page 39
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS2014

Detailed Uncertainty Analysis of the ZEM-3 Measurement System

The measurement of Seebeck coefficient and electrical resistivity are critical to the investigation of all thermoelectric systems. Therefore, it stands that the measurement uncertainty must be well understood to report ZT values which are accurate and trustworthy. A detailed uncertainty analysis of the ZEM-3 measurement system has been performed. The uncertainty analysis calculates error in the electrical resistivity measurement as a result of sample geometry tolerance, probe geometry tolerance, statistical error, and multi-meter uncertainty. The uncertainty on Seebeck coefficient includes probe wire correction factors, statistical error, multi-meter uncertainty, and most importantly the cold-finger effect. The cold-finger effect plagues all potentiometric (four-probe) Seebeck measurement systems, as heat parasitically transfers through thermocouple probes. The effect leads to an asymmetric over-estimation of the Seebeck coefficient. A thermal finite element analysis allows for quantification of the phenomenon, and provides an estimate on the uncertainty of the Seebeck coefficient. The thermoelectric power factor has been found to have an uncertainty of +9-14 at high temperature and 9 near room temperature.

Seebeck effect↗
NASA NTRS2021

LiDAR-Based Map Relative Localization Performance Analysis for Landing on Europa

This paper presents preliminary simulations andanalyses done to assess the feasibility of performing Map RelativeLocalization (MRL) with the Europa Lander LiDAR beingdeveloped for the Europa Lander Pre-Phase A concept. MapRelative Localization is the process of determining the horizontalposition of a lander with respect to an onboard, a-priori map,by comparing the map to sensor observations of the terrain duringdeorbit, descent, and landing (DDL). Although kilometerscaleposition knowledge is commonly available during DDL,landing in hazard-rich environments requires position errors of100 m or less. Prior knowledge in the case of Europa Landerwill be visual and topographic maps collected by the upcomingEuropa Clipper mission. The Mars 2020 Lander Vision System(LVS) uses images from a camera to localize with respect tovisual maps. This technology, as well as a 3D imaging LiDAR indevelopment for hazard detection, is currently baselined for theEuropa Lander Pre-Phase A concept. This paper investigatesthe potential use of the hazard detection LiDAR to performMRL with respect to a 3D digital elevation model (DEM)provided by the Europa Clipper mission, as an alternative orbackup solution to passive optical MRL. Compared to passiveoptical MRL, one advantage of LiDAR-based localization isthat it is insensitive to lighting conditions, potentially relaxingrequirements on synchronizing map acquisition and landingtime of day. To analyze LiDAR based MRL performance,six representative terrains are synthetically up-sampled fromGalileo-derived maps of Europa to a resolution of 0.5 m/pxand covering an area of 4 km by 4 km. These maps are usedas ground-truth to generate simulated noisy a-priori onboardtopographic maps expected from Europa Clipper as well assimulated LiDAR DEMs generated at an altitude of 5 km duringEuropa Lander DDL. The simulated LiDAR DEM is matchedagainst the simulated map via 2D normalized cross-correlation,exploiting the accurately known spacecraft attitude to avoidthe need for more computationally intensive algorithms such asIterative Closest Point (ICP). Two sources of measurement errorare identified for analysis: 1) additive Gaussian noise in therange measurements from the Europa Lander LiDAR and theEuropa Clipper derived maps and 2) errors in the LiDAR DEMinduced by errors in the Europa Lander state estimate which isused to de-warp the LiDAR scan data into a DEM format. Weassess the effect of each of these types of errors independently onmatching performance as well as the overall performance whenall types of error are introduced. Additionally, we present theresult of a sensitivity study to terrain frequency content.

Trawny, Nikolas↗
NASA NTRS1994

Elemental abundances of the supernova remnant G292.0+1.8: Evidence for a massive progenitor

We present a comprehensive nonequilibrium ionization (NEI) analysis of X-ray spectral data from the Einstein Observatory and EXOSAT for the supernova remnant G292.0+1.8. The spectra are well described by a single-temperature, single-timescale NEI model with kT = 1.64(sub -0.19)(sup +0.29) keV and n(sub e)t = (5.55(sub -1.12)(sup +1.2) x 10(exp 10)s/cu cm, which establishes that this remnant is indeed young and in the ionizing phase of evolution of its X-ray spectrum. We determine the abundances of the elements O, Ne, Mg, Si, S, Ar, and Fe and examine their variation over the allowed range of column density, kT, and n(sub e)t. Numerical calculations of the nucleosynthesis expected for a 25 solar mass progenitor agree best with the fitted abundances; in fact the minimum rms percent difference between this model and the derived abundances is only 15%. From the fitted emission measure and a simple geometric model of the remnant we estimate the mass of X-ray-emitting plasma to be 9.3(sub -6.2)(sup +1.19) solar mass, for an assumed distance of 4.8 +/- 1.6 kpc. Additional errors on this mass estimate, from clumping of the ejecta, for example, may be substantial. No evidence was found for a difference in the thermodynamic state of the plasma as a function of elemental composition based on analysis of the individual ionization timescales of the various species. In this sense then, G292.0+1.8 resembles the remnant Cas A (another product of a massive star supernova), while it is different from the remnants of SN 1572 (Tycho) and SN 1006, both of which are believed to be from Type Ia supernovae.

Hughes, John P.↗
DOE OSTI2023

Simulation-Based Recovery Action Analysis Using the EMRALD Dynamic Risk Assessment Tool

A recovery action is defined as the action that prevents deviant conditions from producing unwanted effects. It generally indicates a kind of countermeasure performed in response to a failure of human action. The recovery actions especially play an important role in complex systems like nuclear power plants (NPPs), which consist of highly sophisticated controllers to ensure that desired performance and safety must be achieved and maintained. This is because a combination of human error and its recovery failure may be able to cause a catastrophic effect on a system. Analyzing recovery actions has been a critical part of HRA, which is a technique to evaluate human errors and provide human error probabilities (HEPs) for application in probabilistic safety assessment (PSA). If recovery actions are not adequately analyzed and applied to PSA models, the PSA results may be under-estimated or be not able to reasonably account for the failure of human actions in the context of PSA. For this reason, some regulatory documents such as ASME/ANS RA-Sb-2013 by the American Society for Mechanical Engineers and the American Nuclear Society and NUREG-1792 by U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission have emphasized the importance of recovery analysis within the HRA. A couple of existing HRA methods, such as the Technique for Human Error-Rate Prediction (THERP), the Cause-Based Decision Tree (CBDT), and the Korean Standard HRA (K-HRA), have respectively suggested their own approaches to the HRA recovery analysis. However, there are a couple of limitations to treating recovery actions using only the current HRA methods available. The biggest limitation is that the existing recovery analysis does not explicitly consider a variety of recovery action types and recovery sequences as they occur in actual NPPs. To handle the limitations of existing recovery analysis, this study proposes a simulation-based recovery analysis method using the Event Modeling Risk Assessment Using Linked Diagram (EMRALD) software. The EMRALD software is a dynamic simulation tool for PSA. It supports realistic and dynamic modeling of human actions as they would be performed at NPPs. It is also favorable to simultaneously model the specific moment at which an action is performed, the time it takes to perform the action, and the failure probability of that action. In this paper, a detailed methodology for modeling recovery actions in the simulation platform is proposed with a couple of examples. Then, outputs from the simulation are discussed as reviewing if this novel approach can complement the challenges of existing recovery analyses.

99 GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗
NASA NTRS2024

Spectral Correlation in MODIS Water-Leaving Reflectance Retrieval Uncertainty

Spectral remote sensing reflectance, Rrs(λ) (sr−1), is the fundamental quantity used to derive a host of bio-optical and biogeochemical properties of the water column from satellite ocean color measurements. Estimation of uncertainty in those derived geophysical products is therefore dependent on knowledge of the uncertainty in satellite-retrieved R rs . Furthermore, since the associated algorithms require R rs at multiple spectral bands, the spectral (i.e., band-to-band)error covariance in R rs is needed to accurately estimate the uncertainty in those derived properties. This study establishes a derivative-based approach for propagating instrument random noise, instrument systematic uncertainty, and forward model uncertainty into R rs as retrieved using NASA’s multiple-scattering epsilon (MSEPS) atmospheric correction algorithm, to generate pixel-level error covariance in R rs . The approach is applied to measurements from Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) on the Aqua satellite and verified using Monte Carlo (MC) analysis. We also make use of this full spectral error covariance in R rs to calculate uncertainty in phytoplankton pigment chlorophyll-a concentration (chl a , mg/m 3 ) and diffuse attenuation coefficient of downwelling irradiance at 490 nm (K d (490), m -1 ). Accounting for the error covariance in R rs generally reduces the estimated relative uncertainty in chl a by ∼1-2% (absolute value) in waters with chl a < 0.25 mg/m 3 where the color index (CI) algorithm is used. The reduction is ∼5-10% in waters with chl a > 0.35 mg/m 3 where the blue-green ratio (OCX) algorithm is used. Such reduction can be higher than 30% in some regions. For K d (490), the reduction by error covariance is generally ∼2%, but can be higher than 20% in some regions. The error covariance in R rs is further verified through forward-calculating chl a from MODIS-retrieved and in situ R rs and comparing estimated uncertainty with observed differences. An 8-day global composite of propagated uncertainty shows that the goal of 35% uncertainty in chl a can be achieved over deep ocean waters (chl a ≤ 0.1 mg/m3). While the derivative-based approach generates reasonable error covariance in R rs some assumptions should be updated as our knowledge improves. These include the inter-band error correlation in top-of-atmosphere reflectance, and uncertainties in the calibration of MODIS 869 nm band, in ancillary data, and in the in situ data used for system vicarious calibration.

Ocean color↗
NASA NTRS2012

Rotation Rate of Saturn's Magnetosphere using CAPS Plasma Measurements

We present the present status of an investigation of the rotation rate of Saturn 's magnetosphere using a 3D velocity moment technique being developed at Goddard which is similar to the 2D version used by Sittler et al. (2005) [1] for SOI and similar to that used by Thomsen et al. (2010). This technique allows one to nearly cover the full energy range of the CAPS IMS from 1 V less than or equal to E/Q less than 50 kV. Since our technique maps the observations into a local inertial frame, it does work during roll manoeuvres. We have made comparisons with Wilson et al. (2008) [2] (2005-358 and 2005-284) who performs a bi-Maxwellian fit to the ion singles data and our results are nearly identical. We will also make comparisons with results by Thomsen et al. (2010) [3]. Our analysis uses ion composition data to weight the non-compositional data, referred to as singles data, to separate H+, H2+ and water group ions (W+) from each other. The ion data set is especially valuable for measuring flow velocities for protons, which are more difficult to derive using singles data within the inner magnetosphere, where the signal is dominated by heavy ions (i.e., proton peak merges with W+ peak as low energy shoulder). Our technique uses a flux function, which is zero in the proper plasma flow frame, to estimate fluid parameter uncertainties. The comparisons investigate the experimental errors and potential for systematic errors in the analyses, including ours. The rolls provide the best data set when it comes to getting 4PI coverage of the plasma but are more susceptible to time aliasing effects. Since our analysis is a velocity moments technique it will work within the inner magnetosphere where pickup ions are important and velocity distributions are non-Maxwellian. So, we will present results inside Enceladus' L shell and determine if mass loading is important. In the future we plan to make comparisons with magnetic field observations, use Saturn ionosphere conductivities as presently known and the field aligned currents necessary for the planet to enforce corotation of the rotating plasma.

Sittler, E.↗
NASA NTRS1972

Photographic and photometric enhancement of Lunar Orbiter products, projects A, B and C

A detailed discussion is presented of the framelet joining, photometric data improvement, and statistical error analysis. The Lunar Orbiter film handling system, readout system, and the digitization are described, along with the technique of joining adjacent framelets by a using a digital computer. Time and cost estimates are given. The problems and techniques involved in improving the digitized data are discussed. It was found that spectacular improvements are possible. Program documentations are included.

Source record↗
NASA NTRS1979

Monte Carlo analysis of satellite debris footprint dispersion

A comprehensive study is performed to investigate satellite debris impact point dispersion using a combination of Monte Carlo statistical analysis and parametric methods. The Monte Carlo technique accounts for nonlinearities in the entry point dispersion, which is represented by a covariance matrix of position and velocity errors. Because downrange distance of impact is a monotonic function of debris ballistic coefficient, a parametric method is useful for determining dispersion boundaries. The scheme is applied in the present analysis to estimate the Skylab footprint dispersions for a controlled reentry. A significant increase in the footprint dispersion is noticed for satellite breakup above a 200,000-ft altitude. A general discussion of the method used for analysis is presented together with some typical results obtained for the Skylab deboost mission, which was designed before NASA abandoned plans for a Skylab controlled reentry.

Rao, P. P.↗
NASA NTRS2009

The Kepler Project: Mission Update

Kepler is a Discovery-class mission designed to determine the frequency of Earth-size planets in and near the habitable zone of solar-like stars. The instrument consists of a 0.95 m aperture photometer designed to obtain high precision photometric measurement of > 100,000 stars to search for patterns of transits. The focal plane of the Schmidt-telescope contains 42 CCDs with at total of 95 mega pixels that cover 116 square degrees of sky. The photometer was launched into an Earth-trailing heliocentric orbit on March 6, 2009, finished its commissioning on May 12, and is now in the science operations mode. During the commissioning of the Kepler photometer, data were obtained at a 30 minute cadence for 53,000 stars for 9.7 days. Although the data have not yet been corrected for the presence of systematic errors and artifacts, the data show the presence of hundreds of eclipsing binary stars and variable stars of amazing variety. To provide some estimate of the capability of the photometer, a quick analysis of the photometric precision was made. Analysis of the commissioning data also show transits, occultations and light emitted from the known exoplanet HAT-P7b. The data show a smooth rise and fall of light: from the planet as it orbits its star, punctuated by a drop of 130 +/- 11 ppm in flux when the planet passes behind its star. We interpret this as the phase variation of the dayside thermal emission plus reflected light from the planet as it orbits its star and is occulted. The depth of the occultation is similar in amplitude to that expected from a transiting Earth-size planet and demonstrates that the Mission has the precision necessary to detect such planets.

Borucki, William J.↗
NASA NTRS2014

Radioelements on Vesta: An Update

The main-belt asteroid 4 Vesta is the putative parent body of the howardite, eucrite, and diogenite (HED) meteorites. Because these achondrites have similar petrology, geochemistry, chronology, and O-isotope compositions, it is thought that most HEDs originated from a single parent body. The connection to Vesta is supported by a close spectroscopic match between Vesta and the HEDs and a credible mechanism for their delivery to Earth. Studies of the HEDs show that Vesta underwent igneous differentiation, forming a Fe-rich core, ultramafic mantle, and basaltic crust. Here we present the results of peak analyses applied to a gamma ray difference spectrum to determine the absolute abundances of K and Th. Data are compared to meteorite whole-rock compositions and other inner solar system bodies. The results, while preliminary, represent our present best estimates for these elements. Because the element signatures are near detection limits and not fully resolved, further analysis (e.g. using spectral unmixing) will be required for improved accuracy and to characterize systematic errors.

Prettyman, T. H.↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Anisotropic Goal-Based Mesh Adaptation Metric Clarification and Development

Adaptive unstructured mesh techniques have a limited, but growing impact on production analysis workflows to control discretization error for reliable simulation results. Multiple independent implementations of flow solvers, anisotropic metric construction methods, and anisotropic mesh adaptation mechanics have matured. Goal-based metrics target estimated error in output functions, such as lift and drag, through the guidance of an adjoint solution. A unification of goal-based anisotropic metrics is presented for steady viscous flows, which is an active area of research. These goal-based metrics drive robust and efficient anisotropic mesh adaptation for the calculation of output functions. The super-convergent functional output error behavior of stabilized finite-element methods is exploited without a formal proof, and evidence of super-convergence is shown in numerical experiments. Mesh adapted drag and lift outputs for two simple bodies in compressible viscous flow show convergence of error to less than a single drag count. Asymptotic behavior established for relatively coarse meshes shows the efficiency of this goal-based metric when compared to solution interpolation error control and expert-guided meshing. Anisotropic mesh adaptation techniques are applied to a transport aircraft in a high-lift configuration where variation between approaches decreases with mesh refinement, but asymptotic behavior is not observed with available resources.

goal-based↗
DOE OSTI2024

AGR-5/6/7 CAPSULE 1 THERMAL MODEL WITH OFFSET GAS GAPS

Fuel compact temperatures are a crucial factor in assessing the irradiation performance of tristructural isotropic (TRISO) fuel particles. In the absence of direct measurement, fuel compact temperatures were calculated using a 3 D finite-element thermal model that was subject to simulation uncertainty. The most dominant factor in the uncertainty of calculated fuel temperatures is the gas gap uncertainty caused by the graphite holder nub-to-capsule clearance. This thermal model was revised to examine the most probable graphite offset position for Capsule 1 for four different days during the irradiation. In the analysis, the offset distance and azimuthal direction at both the top and bottom of the holder were varied. The best-fit offset was estimated based on the minimum root mean square error (RMSE) of the residuals (measured minus calculated thermocouple [TC] temperatures) for the operational TCs in Capsule 1. Near the end of the irradiation, when the graphite had shrunk and the gas gaps had grown, a peak temperature was found with maximum offset along the TC lines, with nickel introducing a potential mechanism for fuel particle failures.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗
NASA NTRS1974

On the robustness of a Bayes estimate

This paper examines the robustness of a Bayes estimator with respect to the assigned prior distribution. A Bayesian analysis for a stochastic scale parameter of a Weibull failure model is summarized in which the natural conjugate is assigned as the prior distribution of the random parameter. The sensitivity analysis is carried out by the Monte Carlo method in which, although an inverted gamma is the assigned prior, realizations are generated using distribution functions of varying shape. For several distributional forms and even for some fixed values of the parameter, simulated mean squared errors of Bayes and minimum variance unbiased estimators are determined and compared. Results indicate that the Bayes estimator remains squared-error superior and appears to be largely robust to the form of the assigned prior distribution.

Canavos, G. C.↗
NASA NTRS1982

Seasat altimeter timing bias estimation

A technique developed for the solution of time lag bias based on the analysis of sea surface height discrepancies at ground track intersections, prompted by the presence of a time calibration bias in Seasat altimeter data that produced measurement errors in excess of 1 m, is shown to yield a separation of the dominant, once-per-revolution ephemeris error amounting to about 1.5 m rms from the timing error signature. The technique does not depend on precise geoid data, and in application to a global Seasat altimeter data set covering July 28-August 9, 1978, has yielded a time lag value of -81.0 + or - 2 msec. This corroborates the -79.4 msec revised value derived from a reexamination of internal instrument time delays.

Marsh, J. G.↗
NASA NTRS1990

Practical Estimates of the Errors Associated with the Governing Shearography Equation

In a series of papers Hung pioneered the development of shearography, an optical NDE technique that detects gradients of surface displacements. Its utility for qualitative flaw characterization has been demonstrated, and while there is a need for using shearography in NDE for quantitative analysis, a large amount of the research has concentrated on the qualitative evaluation of structures and materials. The purpose of this paper is to begin building upon a foundation for the newly emerging quantitative shearography. We begin the analysis by considering the approximations leading to the governing shearography equation.

Fulton, J. P.↗
NASA NTRS2013

Accuracy Analysis and Validation of the Mars Science Laboratory (MSL) Robotic Arm

The Mars Science Laboratory (MSL) Curiosity Rover is currently exploring the surface of Mars with a suite of tools and instruments mounted to the end of a five degree-of-freedom robotic arm. To verify and meet a set of end-to-end system level accuracy requirements, a detailed positioning uncertainty model of the arm was developed and exercised over the arm operational workspace. Error sources at each link in the arm kinematic chain were estimated and their effects propagated to the tool frames.A rigorous test and measurement program was developed and implemented to collect data to characterize and calibrate the kinematic and stiffness parameters of the arm. Numerous absolute and relative accuracy and repeatability requirements were validated with a combination of analysis and test data extrapolated to the Mars gravity and thermal environment. Initial results of arm accuracy and repeatability on Mars demonstrate the effectiveness of the modeling and test program as the rover continues to explore the foothills of Mount Sharp.

rovers↗
DOE OSTI2026

Discrete Superconvergence Analysis for Quantum Magnus Algorithms of Unbounded Hamiltonian Simulation

Motivated by various applications, unbounded Hamiltonian simulation has recently garnered great attention. Quantum Magnus algorithms, designed to achieve commutator scaling for time-dependent Hamiltonian simulation, have been found to be particularly efficient for such applications. When applied to unbounded Hamiltonian simulation in the interaction picture, they exhibit an unexpected superconvergence phenomenon. However, existing proofs are limited to the spatially continuous setting and do not extend to discrete spatial discretizations. Here, in this work, we provide the first superconvergence estimate in the fully discrete setting with a finite number of spatial discretization points N, and show that it holds with an error constant uniform in N. The proof is based on the two-parameter symbol class, which, to our knowledge, is applied for the first time in algorithm analysis. The key idea is to establish a semiclassical framework by identifying two parameters through the discretization number and the time step size rescaled by the operator norm, such that the semiclassical uniformity guarantees the uniformity of both. This approach may have broader applications in numerical analysis beyond the specific context of this work.

Borns-Weil, Yonah [University of California, Berke↗
DOE OSTI2025

Lanczos algorithm for lattice QCD matrix elements

Recent work [M. L. Wagman, Lanczos, the transfer matrix, and the signal-to-noise problem, .] found that an analysis formalism based on the Lanczos algorithm allows energy levels to be extracted from Euclidean correlation functions with faster ground-state convergence than effective masses, convergent estimators for multiple states from a single correlator, and two-sided error bounds. After filtering out spurious eigenvalues and using outlier-robust estimators within a nested bootstrap framework, Lanczos estimators behave more like multistate fit results than effective masses—but without involving statistical fitting. We extend this formalism to the determination of matrix elements from three-point correlation functions and provide a physical picture of “spurious-state filtering” involving restriction to a Hermitian subspace. We demonstrate similar advantages for matrix elements as for spectroscopy through example applications to noiseless mock-data and (bare) forward matrix elements of the strange scalar current between both ground and excited states with the quantum numbers of the nucleon.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗