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At least 703 records · Page 39
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2024

Animal displacement from marine energy development: Mechanisms and consequences

For marine wave and tidal energy to successfully contribute to global renewable energy goals and climate change mitigation, marine energy projects need to expand beyond small deployments to large-scale arrays. However, with large-scale projects come potential environmental effects not observed at the scales of single devices and small arrays. One of these effects is the risk of displacing marine animals from their preferred habitats or their migration routes, which may increase with the size of arrays and location. Many marine animals may be susceptible to some level of displacement once large marine energy arrays are increasingly integrated into the seascape, including large migratory animals, non-migratory pelagic animals with large home ranges, and benthic and demersal mobile organisms with more limited ranges, among many others. Yet, research around the mechanisms and effects of displacement have been hindered by the lack of clarity within the international marine energy community regarding the definition of displacement, how it occurs, its consequences, species of concern, and methods to investigate the outcomes. This review paper leveraged lessons learned from other industries, such as offshore development, to establish a definition of displacement in the marine energy context, explore which functional groups of marine animals may be affected and in what way, and identify pathways for investigating displacement through modeling and monitoring. In the marine energy context, we defined displacement as the outcome of one of three mechanisms (i.e., attraction, avoidance, and exclusion) triggered by an animal's response to one or more stressors acting as a disturbance, with various consequences at the individual through population levels. The knowledge gaps highlighted in this study will help the regulatory and scientific communities prepare for mitigating, observing, measuring, and characterizing displacement of various animals around marine energy arrays in order to prevent irreversible consequences.

16 TIDAL AND WAVE POWER↗
DOE OSTI2024

Multicriteria Measures to Assess the Sustainability of Diets: A Systematic Review

Abstract Context Assessing the overall sustainability of a diet is a challenging undertaking requiring a holistic approach capable of addressing the multicriteria nature of this concept. Objective The aim was to identify and summarize the multicriteria measures used to assess the sustainability characteristics of diets reported at the individual level by healthy adults. Data Sources Articles were identified via PubMed, Scopus, and Web of Science. The search strategy consisted of key words and MeSH terms, and was concluded in September 2022, covering references in English, Spanish, and Portuguese. Data Extraction This systematic review followed the PRISMA guidelines. The search identified 5663 references, from which 1794 were duplicates. Two reviewers independently screened the titles and abstracts of each of the 3869 records and the full-text of the 144 references selected. Of these, 7 studies met the inclusion criteria. Data Analysis A total of 6 multicriteria measures were identified: 3 different Sustainable Diet Indices, the Quality Environmental Costs of Diet, the Quality Financial Costs of Diet, and the Environmental Impact of Diet. All of these incorporated a health/nutrition dimension, while the environmental and economic dimensions were the second and the third most integrated, respectively. A sociocultural sustainability dimension was included in only 1 of the measures. Conclusion Despite some methodological concerns in the development and validation process of the identified measures, their inclusion is considered indispensable in assessing the transition towards sustainable diets in future studies. Systematic Review Registration PROSPERO registration no. CRD42022358824.

Rei, Mariana (ORCID:0000000189453708)↗
DOE OSTI2022

Biorefinery upgrading of herbaceous biomass to renewable hydrocarbon fuels, Part 1: Process modeling and mass balance analysis

Process simulation has long been a well-established tool to track key operational, design, and mass and energy balance metrics for pre-commercial technologies such as advanced lignocellulosic biofuels. While tools such as this are well-documented in the public literature around 2nd-generation cellulosic ethanol technologies (which have been scaled up to commercial deployment to some degree over the past decade), such models and analysis information remain more sparse for more complex biorefinery pathways focused on producing drop-in hydrocarbon fuels and blend-stocks, particularly regarding information required to support air emissions or other environmental analysis. In this work, we summarize key details for an established "design case" modeling the conversion of herbaceous lignocellulosic biomass into a renewable diesel hydrocarbon blend-stock based on a representative lipid pathway from oleaginous yeast. The process is based on a biochemical deconstruction and upgrading approach utilizing deacetylation and dilute acid pretreatment, followed by enzymatic hydrolysis, fermentation, and catalytic upgrading of hydrolysate sugars to fuels. We provide key mass and energy balance outputs from the process models, with accompanying stream tables and component-level flowrates. A total of 12 model scenarios are presented spanning two feedstocks, three biorefinery scales, and two processing approaches for the lignin/residual solids waste streams. This "Part 1" manuscript presents the resulting impacts across the 12 cases on fuel yields and key output streams, focused here on direct biorefinery air emissions for selected components including CO 2 as well as sulfur (SOx) and nitrogen oxides (NOx). In the context of cleaner production, the latter focus on selected biorefinery air emission outputs establishes an initial baseline estimate and accompanying framework of the model cases, upon which an accompanying "Part 2" study will build to refine the values for these and other air pollutants across these scenarios, also considering mitigation options to comply with applicable regulatory standards. We also highlight further optimization opportunities based on potential tradeoffs identified here between air emissions versus life-cycle greenhouse gas profiles attributed to the disposition of lignin/residual solids.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗
NASA NTRS2004

The Sensitivity of Simulated Storm Structure and Intensity to the Temperature at the Lifted Condensation Level

Prior parameter space studies of simulated deep convection are extended to embrace variations in the ambient temperature at the Lifted Condensation Level (LCL). Within the context of the parameter space study design, changes in LCL temperature are roughly equivalent to changes in the ambient precipitable water. Two series of simulations are conducted, one with a warm LCL that is associated with approximately 60 mm of precipitable water, and another with LCL temperatures 8 C cooler, so that PW is reduced to roughly 30 mm. The sets of simulations include tests of the impact of changes in the buoyancy and shear profile shapes and of changes in mixed and moist layer depths, all of which have been shown to be important in prior work. Simulations discussed here feature values of bulk convective available potential energy (CAPE) of 800, 2000, or 3200 Joules per kilogram, and a single semicircular hodograph having radius of 12 meters per second, but with variable vertical shear. The simulations reveal a consistent trend toward stronger peak updraft speeds for the cooler LCL temperature (reduced PW) cases, if all other environmental parameters are held constant. Roughly comparable increases in updraft speeds are noted for all combinations of LCL and level of free convection heights. These increases in updraft strength are evidently the result of both the reduction of condensate loading aloft and the lower altitudes at which the latent heat release by freezing and deposition commences in the cooler, low-PW environments. Because the latent heat of fusion adds relatively more energy to the updrafts at low CAPE, those storms show more strengthening at low PW than do the larger CAPE storms. As expected, maximum storm precipitation rates tend to diminish as PW is decreased, but only slightly, and by amounts not proportionate to the decrease in PW. The low-PW cases thus actually feature larger environment-relative precipitation efficiency than do the high-PW cases. In addition, more hail reaches the surface in the low-PW cases because of reduced melting in the cooler environments.

McCaul, Eugene W., Jr.↗
DOE OSTI2023

Deriving spatially explicit direct and indirect interaction networks from animal movement data

Abstract Quantifying spatiotemporally explicit interactions within animal populations facilitates the understanding of social structure and its relationship with ecological processes. Data from animal tracking technologies (Global Positioning Systems [“GPS”]) can circumvent longstanding challenges in the estimation of spatiotemporally explicit interactions, but the discrete nature and coarse temporal resolution of data mean that ephemeral interactions that occur between consecutive GPS locations go undetected. Here, we developed a method to quantify individual and spatial patterns of interaction using continuous‐time movement models (CTMMs) fit to GPS tracking data. We first applied CTMMs to infer the full movement trajectories at an arbitrarily fine temporal scale before estimating interactions, thus allowing inference of interactions occurring between observed GPS locations. Our framework then infers indirect interactions—individuals occurring at the same location, but at different times—while allowing the identification of indirect interactions to vary with ecological context based on CTMM outputs. We assessed the performance of our new method using simulations and illustrated its implementation by deriving disease‐relevant interaction networks for two behaviorally differentiated species, wild pigs ( Sus scrofa ) that can host African Swine Fever and mule deer ( Odocoileus hemionus ) that can host chronic wasting disease. Simulations showed that interactions derived from observed GPS data can be substantially underestimated when temporal resolution of movement data exceeds 30‐min intervals. Empirical application suggested that underestimation occurred in both interaction rates and their spatial distributions. CTMM‐Interaction method, which can introduce uncertainties, recovered majority of true interactions. Our method leverages advances in movement ecology to quantify fine‐scale spatiotemporal interactions between individuals from lower temporal resolution GPS data. It can be leveraged to infer dynamic social networks, transmission potential in disease systems, consumer–resource interactions, information sharing, and beyond. The method also sets the stage for future predictive models linking observed spatiotemporal interaction patterns to environmental drivers.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Solvent-driven aqueous separations for hypersaline brine concentration and resource recovery

Solvent-driven separation processes can extract water and high-value minerals from high salinity or contaminated brines, simultaneously reducing the environmental impact of brine disposal and enabling resource recovery. The efficient dewatering of hypersaline brines is essential for the sustainable minimal and zero liquid discharge processing of industrial wastewaters. Fractional crystallization can selectively extract ions from contaminated waste streams, allowing critical materials to be recycled, including transition and lanthanide metals required for renewable energy generation and storage. Mass transfer in solvent-driven water extraction occurs across a liquid–liquid interface, eliminating the scaling and fouling of membrane and heat exchanger surfaces and limiting the need for extensive pretreatment. Solvent-driven fractional crystallization can leverage sequential treatment and control of process conditions to rapidly recover salts without requiring evaporation of water. Despite promising applications, the principles and potential of solvent-driven aqueous separations remain poorly understood. This critical review explores the opportunities presented by solvent-based aqueous separations from the molecular to process scale, evaluating the chemistry of solvation and system design in the broader context of desalination, resource recovery, water softening, and mineral production.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Evaluating Meteorological Dust Events and Machine-Learning Based Dust Identification in Geostationary Satellite Imagery

NASA scientists in the Short-term Prediction Research and Transition Center (SPoRT) developed a physically-based machine learning approach to identify dust in satellite imagery with a focus on night-time dust detection (Berndt et al. 201; DustTracker-AI). NASA/NOAA Geostationary Environmental Operational Satellite-16 (GOES-16) imagery was used for training and model inputs. The training, testing and validation data set consists of 28 events in the Southwest United States, capturing dust and null events in the region from 2018-2020.With 83 distinct images and millions of pixels a random forest model was trained and validated, correctly labeling 85% of dust pixels.For the first time, the model was run in near-real time production during the spring of 2022 and dust probability visualizations were made available to NOAA National Weather Service (NWS) forecasters to assess its utility for dust forecasting. Results indicated the model helped increase the confidence in the presence of dust and enabled dust tracking for a longer period of time into the night-time hours. Forecaster assessment and running the model in near real-time allowed for the team to determine the types of events missed, captured, and false alarms. To gain additional context on model performance,the SPoRT team sought to gather more detailed information on the training database(e.g., meteorological characteristics and drivers). The goal of this project was to identify the meteorological drivers for the dust events and create a database which synthesized information from observations, forecaster discussions, and analyses pertaining to the dust events to understand the types of events currently used to train the model. A more detailed meteorological synopsis was created for each dust event in the training, testing, and validation datasets. Following the completion of the database and documentation, the classification details revealed that 88% of the dust events were synoptically driven while mesoscale events were less prevalent in model datasets. Meteorological conditions found such as mixing layer depth and wind velocity had mean values of 645mb and 21kt respectively.With conditions of deep mixed layers and moderate to strong surface winds a mesoscale thunderstorm outflow event was considered and subsequently added to the model training data set to test the impact of additional mesoscale training data. The model was retrained and then qualitatively tested on a sample thunderstorm outflow case that the original model was unable to identify. Preliminary results showed potential that the addition of more mesoscale events included in the training data could help to better identify indistinct and localized dust events.

Connor Welch↗
DOE OSTI2026

Physiological Controls on Carbon Fluxes and Biomass Production in Miscanthus: Insights From a Process‐Based Agroecosystem Model

Biomass crops serve as essential feedstocks for renewable energy and bioproducts and play a critical role in achieving lower emissions in the transportation sector. However, dedicated perennial biomass crops such as Miscanthus × giganteus (Miscanthus) remain underrepresented in process-based agroecosystem models, limiting robust evaluation of their economic and environmental performance. In this study, we developed a data-constrained representation of the sterile triploid Miscanthus (IL clone) within the process-based model ecosys, integrating global sensitivity analysis, ensemble simulation, and parameter calibration. Planting, harvesting, and fertilization practices consistent with field management were incorporated, and phenology was constrained using PhenoCam-derived Green Chromatic Coordinate (GCC) data. Using the Morris global sensitivity analysis method, we identified 11 key physiological parameters governing plant carbon, water, and nutrient relations, particularly processes associated with CO 2 assimilation. We then conducted ensemble simulations by perturbing these parameters and calibrated the model against eddy covariance fluxes and field-measured biomass. Building on the calibrated operating state, parameter-response analyses show that different photosynthetic processes influence productivity in different ways. Protein allocation determines whether productivity increases toward a higher level, whereas electron transport capacity controls additional gains once protein allocation approaches saturation. These findings demonstrate that parameter importance depends on physiological context and on which photosynthetic processes remain limiting. Calibration and validation against observations show that ecosys can reliably reproduce carbon and water fluxes, as well as both above- and belowground biomass, with post-calibration GPP R 2 improving from 0.67 to 0.95 during the calibration period and remaining high during validation (R 2 = 0.95). These results provide a mechanistic foundation for regional simulations and sustainable bioenergy assessments.

ecosys↗
DOE OSTI2021

FEED Study of Carbon Capture Inc. DAC and CarbonCure Utilization Using United States Steel's Gary Works Waste Plant

Direct Air Capture (DAC) has been proposed as a means of reducing atmospheric concentrations of CO2. While DAC has been evaluated through lab-scale, bench-scale, and small-scale pilot units, large-scale deployment has not been achieved. Feasibility studies are one tool to understand the potential design, operation, performance, and impact of commercial-scale DAC. This paper presents the results of a feasibility study for a passive DAC system deployed at >100,000 tpy scale in three different regions across the U.S. and awarded to Carbon Collect by the U.S. Department of Energy National Energy Technology Laboratory (DOE NETL). The MechanicalTree™technology has been designed and engineered by Carbon Collect based on the concept initially developed at Arizona State University Center for Negative Carbon Emissions. It uses a tower of stacked, sorbentcontaining disks supported by a lifting mechanism, exposed to the air to capture CO2 during the adsorption phase. The disks are then lowered into a regeneration chamber for vacuum and steam regeneration to produce CO2 product during the desorption step. The modular tree design allows large installations with repeatable, mass-manufactured units connected to common utilities such as steam supply, vacuum, and CO2 processing for compression and geologic storage. The passive DAC system eliminates the equipment and energy of forced air fans by using natural air circulation to contact the sorbent with the CO2 in the air. Because of this, the performance is dependent on the wind speed in addition to the temperature and relative humidity. Performance and flow rate fluctuations were incorporated into equipment and facility design with considerations for turndown to 10% of maximum rated flow to allow operation in all seasons. The feasibility study was undertaken to evaluate the technology in different regions and climates. Three locations were selected for this study representing different climates: Alabama (hot and humid), California (hot and arid), and Wyoming (continental). For each region, the adsorption/desorption cycle was optimized including tuning the heat integration and cycle timings. The performance of individual trees was then scaled to the full facility with the same design of more than 20,000 trees common between all regions. The installations had expected average CO2 capture rates of between 330,000 and 485,000 tonnes of CO2 per year depending on the climate. The initial engineering design for the facility at each location was performed with cost and performance estimates for the trees, carbon purification and compression, and the balance of plant. To supply thermal and electrical energy for the facility, carbon-free or low-carbon power must be considered. Options for low-carbon, continuous thermal and electrical energy were considered. The best-performing option from those considered was identified to be an electrically-heated molten salt energy storage system, powered by an on-site photovoltaic field. During molten salt thermal discharge, steam is produced from heat exchange with the molten salt and used to generate power in a steam turbine as well as steam for regenerating the DAC carbon trees. The thermal and electrical supply and analysis is presented in the context of low-carbon power for carbon removal. Modelling and economics of transportation and geologic storage of the CO2 is considered and presented for each location. The results of the feasibility study are incorporated into the presented techno-economic and life-cycle assessments. This work is intended to provide an understanding of the performance, cost, and impact of capturing CO2 at the commercial scale and the impact of climate and regional siting on the considered passive DAC system.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2026

A Comprehensive Greenhouse Gas Assessment of Biomass-Based Carbon Dioxide Removal and Storage

Biomass-based Carbon Removal and Storage (BiCRS) is a suite of technological pathways that provide a relatively affordable and high-potential way to remove carbon dioxide from the atmosphere and simultaneously re-purpose residual biomass. BiCRS technologies are individually optimized to different biomass feedstocks, temperatures and oxygen, with the primary goal of capturing a high percentage of biomass-derived carbon dioxide and storing it in permanent below-ground storage (i.e. geologic storage), and a secondary goal of producing renewable energy. The current standard for BiCRS life cycle assessments does not account for greenhouse gas (carbon dioxide, methane and nitrous oxide) fluxes from surface soil amendment of BiCRS byproducts (e.g. char, ash) and their alternate fates. This is partly due to a paucity of empirical data due to the novelty of BiCRS conversion technologies, the range in feedstocks, and the heterogeneity of soils to which they might be amended. To fill this gap in in the life-cycle assessment and provide a realistic range of parameters for a soil amendment component of the BiCRS life cycle assessment, we conducted an incubation experiment to measure soil carbon changes, microbial respiration, methane fluxes, and nitrous oxide fluxes from two different soils amended with char- and ash- byproducts from biomass after gasification to hydrogen, fast pyrolysis to bio-oil, and torrefaction. Our results suggest that nitrous oxide and methane emission or consumption from BiCRS char amendments to soil are context dependent. Nitrous oxide emissions from amendments are higher in soils with higher pH, whereas some char amendments to low pH soil can reduce N 2 O emissions relative to control. In contrast, methane is emitted from BiCRS char amended to low pH soil, but consumed or neutral relative to control when amended to high pH soil. We present carbon and nitrogen mass balance throughout the experiment to help understand short-term durability of BiCRS chars and their counterfactuals, and preliminary suggestions for revisions to the broader BiCRS Measurement, Reporting, and Verification framework.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Systematic and objective evaluation of Earth system models: PCMDI Metrics Package (PMP) version 3

Systematic, routine, and comprehensive evaluation of Earth system models (ESMs) facilitates benchmarking improvement across model generations and identifying the strengths and weaknesses of different model configurations. By gauging the consistency between models and observations, this endeavor is becoming increasingly necessary to objectively synthesize the thousands of simulations contributed to the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP) to date. The Program for Climate Model Diagnosis and Intercomparison (PCMDI) Metrics Package (PMP) is an open-source Python software package that provides quick-look objective comparisons of ESMs with one another and with observations. The comparisons include metrics of large- to global-scale climatologies, tropical inter-annual and intra-seasonal variability modes such as the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and Madden–Julian Oscillation (MJO), extratropical modes of variability, regional monsoons, cloud radiative feedbacks, and high-frequency characteristics of simulated precipitation, including its extremes. The PMP comparison results are produced using all model simulations contributed to CMIP6 and earlier CMIP phases. An important objective of the PMP is to document the performance of ESMs participating in the recent phases of CMIP, together with providing version-controlled information for all datasets, software packages, and analysis codes being used in the evaluation process. Among other purposes, this also enables modeling groups to assess performance changes during the ESM development cycle in the context of the error distribution of the multi-model ensemble. Quantitative model evaluation provided by the PMP can assist modelers in their development priorities. In this paper, we provide an overview of the PMP, including its latest capabilities, and discuss its future direction.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Bacteria export alarmone synthetases that produce (p)ppApp and (p)ppGpp

Guanosine penta- and tetraphosphate [(p)ppGpp] and their adenosine analogs [(p)ppApp] are bacterial second messengers known as alarmones. Members of the RelA-SpoT homolog (RSH) family synthesize (p)ppGpp to mediate the stringent response during nutrient starvation, whereas (p)ppApp synthetases have been identified as bactericidal toxins in diverse contexts including type VI secretion systems, toxin-antitoxin modules, and phages. Although alarmone synthesis has traditionally been viewed as a cytoplasmic process, early studies in Streptomyces suggested the existence of secreted alarmone synthetases. Here, we identify SaEAS, an exported alarmone synthetase (EAS) from Streptomyces albidoflavus, as the long-mysterious source of extracellular alarmone synthetase activity in Streptomyces. SaEAS produces both (p)ppGpp and (p)ppApp at rates exceeding 100,000 molecules per minute and has kinetic properties adapted to low substrate environments. A broader bioinformatic survey reveals ~600 EASs linked to a range of specialized bacterial secretion systems. Characterization of two additional EASs, VpEAS from Vibrio parahaemolyticus and AaEAS from Amycolatopsis azurea, shows that both produce (p)ppGpp exclusively and inhibit bacterial growth when localized to the cytoplasm. These findings challenge the longstanding view of (p)ppGpp as strictly pro-survival and unveil a diverse family of secreted RSH enzymes with potential roles in interbacterial antagonism and environmental signaling.

Ahmad, Shehryar↗
DOE OSTI2024

Defining weather scenarios for simulation-based assessment of thermal resilience of buildings under current and future climates: A case study in Brazil

In response to increasingly severe weather conditions, optimization of building performance and investment provides an opportunity to consider co-benefits of thermal resilience during energy efficiency retrofits. This work aims to assess thermal resilience of buildings using building performance simulation to evaluate the indoor overheating risk under nine weather scenarios, considering historical (2010s), mid-term future (2050s), and long-term future (2090s) typical meteorological years, and heat wave years. Such an analysis is based on resilience profiles that combine six integrated indicators. A case study with a district of 92 buildings in Brazil was conducted, and a combination of strategies to improve thermal resilience was identified. Results reflect the necessity of planning for resilience in the context of climate change. This is because strategies recommended under current conditions might not be ideal in the future. Therefore, an adaptable design should be prioritized. Cooling energy consumption could increase by 48 % by the 2050s, while excessive overheating issues could reach 37 % of the buildings. Simple passive strategies can significantly reduce the heat stress. A comprehensive thermal resilience analysis should ultimately be accompanied by a thorough reflection on the stakeholders’ objectives, available resources, and planning horizon, as well as the risks assumed for not being resilient.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
DOE OSTI2026

Multi‐Objective Urban Observational Strategies: A Risk‐Based Framework for Expanding Flood Sensor Networks

In coupled human and natural systems, developing an observation strategy which maximizes insight into both the natural system and the human system is a challenging multi-objective optimization problem. In this article, we describe the expansion of a flood risk observation system in Southeast Texas designed to improve our understanding of both physical and socioeconomic exposure to hydrological hazards at fine spatial scales, in the context of a structured hazard-exposure-vulnerability risk framework. We describe a new approach for assessing the spatial extent through which a flood sensor's observations can be assumed to be relevant, and estimate the population served within each sensor's area of information using downscaled socio-demographic data. As hydrological observations and modeling move to ever finer scale, assessing the information they contain in the context of both social and natural systems becomes increasingly important for developing actionable scientific insights.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

Flash droughts present a new challenge for subseasonal-to-seasonal prediction

Flash droughts are a recently recognized type of extreme event distinguished by sudden onset and rapid intensification of drought conditions with severe impacts. They unfold on subseasonal-to-seasonal timescales (weeks to months), presenting a new challenge for the surge of interest in improving subseasonal-to-seasonal prediction. In this perspective we discuss existing prediction capability for flash droughts and what is needed to establish their predictability. We place them in the context of synoptic to centennial phenomena, consider how they could be incorporated into early warning systems and risk management, and propose two definitions. The growing awareness that flash droughts involve particular processes and severe impacts, and probably a climate change dimension, makes them a compelling frontier for research, monitoring and prediction.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

Analysis of the performance of different culvert boundary conditions in 2D shallow flow models

Culverts allow roads to safely traverse small streams or drainage ditches, and their proper design is critical to ensure a safe and reliable transportation network. A correct modelization of these hydraulic structures becomes crucial in the assessment of flood footprints or discharge peak estimation in a risk evaluation plan. The question of how to include culverts comes up frequently when assembling a hydraulic model that requires the presence of as many singular elements as possible. In this work, three different culvert integrations with the surface domain are studied and compared in the context of a 2D shallow water (SW) model. All of them are based on the Federal Highway Administration (FHWA) formulation for the culvert discharge estimation but differ in complexity and in the interaction with the numerical model for surface flow, some of them as internal boundary conditions. Several steady and unsteady validation test cases are presented and the numerical results are compared with the predictions from HEC-RAS 1D and HY-8 software. Furthermore, the culvert area, shape and their sensitivity to the 2D computational mesh is also analyzed.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Migrating Populus with climate change: Phenology, coppice management, cold spell susceptibility, leaf dynamics, and biomass production

Understanding the phenology and productivity of Populus species is crucial for effective management and conservation strategies amid climate change. We investigated leaf budbreak timing, susceptibility to cold damage, leaf dynamics, and biomass production of 168 Populus genotypes with diverse provenances in the southeastern United States. Our study revealed significant variation in budbreak timing across different taxa and years, with genotypes inheriting traits adapted to their parents’ local climates. Temperature emerged as a key factor triggering budbreak, while leaf development depended on other environmental cues such as photoperiod. Notably, budbreak occurred approximately 20 days earlier in 2023 compared to 2022 due to higher accumulated degree days (ADDs). Short-rotation-coppice (SRC) management delayed budbreak by five to ten days. Cold damage was significant in 2023, particularly for genotypes from northern provenances and those with P. maximowiczii parentage. Severe damage was also observed in eastern cottonwood ( Populus deltoides ​× ​ Populus deltoides (D ​× ​D)) genotypes, despite most having southeastern US parentages. Leaf dynamics, including leaf duration and leaf area index (LAI), varied across taxa and sites, with earlier budbreak correlating with extended growing seasons and increased LAI. Biomass production was intricately linked to phenological events, with earlier budbreak leading to increased biomass production and greater susceptibility to cold damage. Our findings highlight the importance of genetics, environment, and coppicing management in understanding and managing Populus phenology and biomass production. These insights provide valuable guidance for developing effective breeding, conservation, and management strategies for Populus species in the context of climate change.

Accumulated degree days (ADDs)↗
DOE OSTI2023

Evaluation of Power Transmission Lines Hardening Scenarios Using a Machine Learning Approach

The power transmission infrastructure is vulnerable to extreme weather events, particularly hurricanes and tropical storms. A recent example is the damage caused by Hurricane Maria (H-Maria) in the archipelago of Puerto Rico in September 2017, where major failures in the transmission infrastructure led to a total blackout. Numerous studies have been conducted to examine strategies to strengthen the transmission system, including burying the power lines underground or increasing the frequency of tree trimming. However, few studies focus on the direct hardening of the transmission towers to accomplish an increase in resiliency. This machine learning-based study fills this need by analyzing three direct hardening scenarios and determining the effectiveness of these changes in the context of H-Maria. A methodology for estimating transmission tower damage is presented here in this study as well as an analysis of impact of replacing structures with a high failure rate with more resilient ones. We found the steel self-support-pole to be the best replacement option for the towers with high failure rate. Furthermore, the third hardening scenario, where all wooden poles were replaced, exhibited a maximum reduction in damaged towers in a single line of 66% while lowering the mean number of damaged towers per line by 10%.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗