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DOE OSTI2025

Ecological acclimation: A framework to integrate fast and slow responses to climate change

Ecological responses to climate change occur across vastly different time-scales, from minutes for physiological plasticity to decades or centuries for community turnover and evolutionary adaptation. Accurately predicting the range of ecosystem trajectories will require models that incorporate both fast processes that may keep pace with climate change and slower ones likely to lag behind and generate disequilibrium dynamics. However, the knowledge necessary for this integration is currently fragmented across disciplines. We develop ‘ecological acclimation’ as a unifying framework to emphasize the similarity of dynamics driven by processes operating on dramatically different time-scales and levels of biological organization. The framework focuses on ecoclimate sensitivities, measured as the change in an ecological response variable per unit of climate change. Acclimation processes acting at different time-scales cause these sensitivities to shift in magnitude and even direction over time. We highlight shifting ecoclimate sensitivities in case studies from diverse ecosystems, including terrestrial plant communities, coral reefs and soil microbiomes. Models predicting future ecosystem states inevitably make assumptions about acclimation processes; these assumptions must be explicit for users to evaluate whether a model is appropriate for a given forecast horizon. Similarly, decision frameworks that clearly account for multiple acclimation processes and their distinct time-scales will help natural resource managers plan for ecological impacts of climate change from years to many decades into the future. We outline a synthetic research programme focused on the time-scales of ecological acclimation to reduce uncertainty in ecological forecasts.

climate adaptation↗

DOE OSTI2026

Conservation laws and effective hadronization models

Hadronization models based on local string-breaking dynamics are typically Markovian by construction, yet the physical ensemble of final states is shaped by global constraints that couple the entire fragmentation trajectory. Recasting hadronization as a conditioned stochastic diffusion process provides a precise mathematical resolution to this tension. In particular, this language reveals explicitly that constraints stemming from conservation laws induce non-Markovian correlations between otherwise independent fragmentation steps, and that these correlations can be absorbed exactly into a renormalization of the local dynamics through a Doob $h$-transform. We develop this formalism for a $q\bar{q}$ string in the chiral limit, where the longitudinal-transverse factorization of the Lund kernel becomes exact, enabling systematic power counting and clean ultraviolet (UV)/infrared (IR) separation. The dynamics organize naturally into a tower of effective theories distinguished by the remaining string mass, spanning a UV fixed point with scale-invariant transport coefficients, an intermediate regime where transverse phase space induces controlled running, and an IR boundary layer where non-local effects enter at leading order. The tower exhibits genuine Wilsonian structure, including $β$-functions, anomalous dimensions, and systematic matching conditions. The resulting framework achieves a clean factorization of universal microscopic fragmentation dynamics from infrared constraint effects, and opens new directions for both the theoretical analysis and practical simulation of hadronization.

Menzo, Tony [Alabama U.; Fermilab] (ORCID:00000002↗

DOE OSTI2025

A comparison of probabilistic generative frameworks for molecular simulations

Generative artificial intelligence is now a widely used tool in molecular science. Despite the popularity of probabilistic generative models, numerical experiments benchmarking their performance on molecular data are lacking. Here, in this work, we introduce and explain several classes of generative models, broadly sorted into two categories: flow-based models and diffusion models. We select three representative models: neural spline flows, conditional flow matching, and denoising diffusion probabilistic models, and examine their accuracy, computational cost, and generation speed across datasets with tunable dimensionality, complexity, and modal asymmetry. Our findings are varied, with no one framework being the best for all purposes. In a nutshell, (i) neural spline flows do best at capturing mode asymmetry present in low-dimensional data, (ii) conditional flow matching outperforms other models for high-dimensional data with low complexity, and (iii) denoising diffusion probabilistic models appear the best for low-dimensional data with high complexity. Our datasets include a Gaussian mixture model and the dihedral torsion angle distribution of the Aib9 peptide, generated via a molecular dynamics simulation. We hope our taxonomy of probabilistic generative frameworks and numerical results may guide model selection for a wide range of molecular tasks.

Artificial intelligence↗

DOE OSTI2022

Green’s function methods for excited states and x-ray spectra of functional materials

Many interesting properties of functional materials, such as dynamic response and thermodynamic behavior, depend on their excited state properties. These functional properties are often related to excitations in the system, such as phonons and plasmons, which lead to inelastic losses, lifetime, and other dynamic effects. The excitations are pure many-body correlation effects that are missing from independent particle theories. They are revealed in x-ray spectra such as photoemission and absorption, where they show up as satellites beyond the quasi-particle approximation. Our main focus in this work is the use of Green's function methods to describe these effects. In particular, we discuss how the cumulant Green's function provides a unified treatment of such dynamic correlation effects in many contexts. Besides a robust theoretical framework, these methods also yield widely applicable tools for practical calculations of many functional properties of materials. Furthermore, this methodology is illustrated with a number of applications ranging from optical and x-ray spectra to thermodynamic properties, and dynamic response. Some recent extensions for more correlated systems are also briefly discussed.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

DOE OSTI2025

Dynamic Modeling of a Kaplan Hydroturbine Using Optimal Parametric Tuning and Real Plant Operational Data

To address grid variability caused by renewable energy integration and to maintain grid reliability and resilience, hydropower must quickly adjust its power generation over short time periods. This changing energy generation landscape requires advance technology integration and adaptive parameter optimization for hydropower systems via digital twin effort. However, this is difficult owing to the lack of characterization and modeling for the nonlinear nature of hydroturbines. To solve this issue, this paper first formulates a six-coefficient Kaplan hydroturbine model and then proposes a parametric optimization tuning framework based on the Nelder–Mead algorithm for adaptive dynamic learning of the six-coefficients so as to build models that describe the turbine. To assess the performance of the proposed optimal parametric tuning technique, operational data from a real-world Kaplan hydroturbine unit are collected and used to model the relationship between the gate opening and the generated power production. The findings show that the proposed technique can effectively and adaptively learn the unknown dynamics of the Kaplan hydroturbine while optimally tune the unknown coefficients to match the generated power output from the real hydroturbine unit with an inaccuracy of less than 5%. The method can be used to provides optimal tuning of parameters critical for controller design, operational optimization and daily maintenance for hydroturbines in general.

13 HYDRO ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2022

A time‐varying formulation of the curled wake model within the FAST.Farm framework

Abstract In this article, we present a time‐varying formulation of the curled wake model that we implemented in FAST.Farm. The curled wake model, originally developed for steady‐state conditions, is used to produce realistic wake profiles behind a wind turbine in yawed (or skewed) conditions. We begin by introducing the key elements of the FAST.Farm framework. Then, after briefly summarizing the original wake dynamics formulation of FAST.Farm based on a polar wake profile, we present the new time‐varying formulation of the curled wake model, compare the two, and highlight the differences with the original curled wake model. After discussing some implementation details, we present different applications with increasing levels of complexity: single turbine with uniform and turbulent inflow, fixed and transient yaw, and multiple turbines. We verify our results using the original FAST.Farm implementation and large‐eddy simulations. The results with the new curled wake model are improved compared to the original implementation, as they include cross‐flow velocities and wake asymmetry. Yet, large‐eddy simulation results show a more pronounced lateral convection of the wake and a stronger concentration of vorticity at the top vortex. The new curled wake implementation in FAST.Farm should enable the calculation of not only generator power but also wind turbine structural loads for applications involving intentional or unintentional skewed flow and wind‐farm control involving wake steering.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2023

Effect of a micro-scale dislocation pileup on the atomic-scale multi-variant phase transformation and twinning

In this paper, we perform concurrent atomistic–continuum (CAC) simulations to assess the contribution of the internal stress induced by the microscale dislocation pileup at an atomically structured interface to the atomic-scale phase transformations (PTs), reverse PTs, and twinning. The main novelty of this work is to unify the atomistic description of the interface and the coarse-grained (CG) description of the lagging dislocations away from the interface within one single framework. Our major findings are: (a) the interface dynamically responds to a pileup by forming steps/ledges, the height of which is proportional to the number of dislocations arriving at the interface; (b) the pileup-induced internal stress concentration profile follows neither the classical Eshelby model nor the super-dislocation model alone, but a combination of them; (c) when the pre-sheared sample is compressed, a direct square-to-hexagonal PT occurs ahead of the pileup tip and eventually grows into a wedge shape. The two variants of the hexagonal phases form a twin with respect to each other; (d) upon a further increase of the loading, part of the newly formed hexagonal phase transforms back to the square phase. The square product phase resulting from this reverse PT forms a twin with respect to the initial square phase. All phase boundaries (PBs) and twin boundaries (TBs) are stationary and correspond to zero thermodynamic Eshelby driving forces; and (e) the microscale dislocation pileup-induced internal shear stress and the structural change at the atomic-scale interface reduces the stress required for initiating a PT by a factor of 5.5, comparing with that in the sample containing no dislocations. This work is the first characterization of the behavior of PTs/twinning resulting from the reaction between a microscale dislocation slip and an atomically structured interface. In conclusion, the gained knowledge will advance our understanding of how the multi-phase material behaves in many complex physical processes, such as the synthesis of multi-phase high-entropy alloys or superhard ceramics under high-pressure torsion, deep mantle earthquakes in geophysics, and so on, which all involve dislocation slip, PTs, twinning, and their interactions across from the atomistic to the microscale and beyond.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2023

Modelling and analysis of salt-convection effect on oxide reduction process for uranium oxides using smoothed particle hydrodynamics

Oxygen ion transport via molten salt continuum is a key kinetic feature of electrochemical reduction process for uranium oxides in molten salt. During the electrolysis, the evolution of oxygen ion concentration field in molten salt continuum appears from porous metallic layer to open bulk salt. Despite the important role affecting process throughput, its effect coupled with controlled salt movement was not adequately investigated. To capture the reactive oxygen ion transport phenomena, a multidimensional reduction model based on smoothed particle hydrodynamics (SPH) was combined with the advection-diffusion model. A pelletized oxide fuel bed capturing interconnected salt continuum is considered as a reactant material geometry, which allows forced convective delivery of molten salt through the reactant materials with a relatively low pressure head. Here, in this study, reduction time of a pelletized-fuel bed was quantified with respect to key design parameters of the reactant material configuration. The simulation results demonstrated the advantage of salt convection which effectively removes oxygen ion products from the reactant materials and consequently accelerates the reduction process. Moreover, the reduction-time correlation of a single pelletized fuel was developed as a function of relevant dimensionless parameters and was extended to the application for a pelletized-fuel bed. Finally, several insights and implications in the use of a pelletized oxide fuel were presented. The developed SPH-based framework enabled multi-physics analysis of governing dynamics in appreciating and screening candidate reactant material configurations in a cost-effective manner.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

DOE OSTI2022

How Cooperatively Folding Are Homopolymer Molecular Knots?

Detailed thermodynamic analysis of complex systems with multiple stable configurational states allows for insight into the cooperativity of each individual transition. In this work, we derive a heat capacity decomposition comprising contributions from each individual configurational state, which together sum to a baseline heat capacity, and contributions from each state-to-state transition. We apply this analysis framework to a series of replica exchange molecular dynamics simulations of linear and 1-1 coarse-grained homo-oligomer models, which fold into stable, configurationally well-defined molecular knots, in order to better understand the parameters leading to stable and cooperative folding of these knots. We find that a stiff harmonic backbone bending angle potential is key to achieving knots with specific 3D structures. Tuning the backbone equilibrium angle in small increments yields a variety of knot topologies. Populations of different knotted states as a function of temperature can also be manipulated by tuning the backbone torsion stiffness or by adding side-chain beads. We find that sharp total heat capacity peaks for the homo-oligomer knots are largely due to a coil-to-globule transition rather than a cooperative knotting step. Furthermore, in some cases, the cooperativity of globule-to-knot and coil-to-globule transitions is comparable, suggesting that highly cooperative folding to knotted structures can be achieved by refining the model parameters or adding sequence specificity.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2023

Conventional High-Temperature Superconductivity in Metallic, Covalently Bonded, Binary-Guest C–B Clathrates

Inspired by the synthesis of XB 3 C 3 (X = Sr, La) compounds in the bipartite sodalite clathrate structure, density functional theory (DFT) calculations are performed on members of this family containing up to two different metal atoms. A DFT chemical pressure analysis on systems with X = Mg, Ca, Sr, Ba reveals that the size of the metal cation, which can be tuned to stabilize the B–C framework, is key for their ambient-pressure dynamic stability. High-throughput density functional theory calculations on 105 Pm$\bar{3}$ symmetry XYB 6 C 6 binary-guest compounds (where X, Y are electropositive metal atoms) find 22 that are dynamically stable at 1 atm, expanding the number of potentially synthesizable phases by 19 (18 metals and 1 insulator). Here, the density of states at the Fermi level and superconducting critical temperature, T c , can be tuned by changing the average oxidation state of the metal atoms, with T c being highest for an average valence of +1.5. KPbB 6 C 6 , with an ambient-pressure Eliashberg T c of 88 K, is predicted to possess the highest T c among the studied Pm$\bar{3}$n XB 3 C 3 or Pm$\bar{3}$XYB 6 C 6 phases, and calculations suggest it may be synthesized using high-pressure high-temperature techniques and then quenched to ambient conditions.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

DOE OSTI2022

Uncertainty Analysis in Multi‐Sector Systems: Considerations for Risk Analysis, Projection, and Planning for Complex Systems

Abstract Simulation models of multi‐sector systems are increasingly used to understand societal resilience to climate and economic shocks and change. However, multi‐sector systems are also subject to numerous uncertainties that prevent the direct application of simulation models for prediction and planning, particularly when extrapolating past behavior to a nonstationary future. Recent studies have developed a combination of methods to characterize, attribute, and quantify these uncertainties for both single‐ and multi‐sector systems. Here, we review challenges and complications to the idealized goal of fully quantifying all uncertainties in a multi‐sector model and their interactions with policy design as they emerge at different stages of analysis: (a) inference and model calibration; (b) projecting future outcomes; and (c) scenario discovery and identification of risk regimes. We also identify potential methods and research opportunities to help navigate the tradeoffs inherent in uncertainty analyses for complex systems. During this discussion, we provide a classification of uncertainty types and discuss model coupling frameworks to support interdisciplinary collaboration on multi‐sector dynamics (MSD) research. Finally, we conclude with recommendations for best practices to ensure that MSD research can be properly contextualized with respect to the underlying uncertainties.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2021

Thermal transport in defective and disordered materials

With significant recent advancements in thermal sciences—such as the development of new theoretical and experimental techniques, and the discovery of new transport mechanisms—it is helpful to revisit the fundamentals of vibrational heat conduction to formulate an updated and informed physical understanding. The increasing maturity of simulation and modeling methods sparks the desire to leverage these techniques to rapidly improve and develop technology through digital engineering and multi-scale, electro-thermal models. With that vision in mind, this review attempts to build a holistic understanding of thermal transport by focusing on the often unaddressed relationships between subfields, which can be critical for multi-scale modeling approaches. For example, we outline the relationship between mode-specific (computational) and spectral (analytical) models. We relate thermal boundary resistance models based on perturbation approaches and classic transmissivity based models. We discuss the relationship between lattice dynamics and molecular dynamics approaches along with two-channel transport frameworks that have emerged recently and that connect crystal-like and amorphous-like heat conduction. Throughout, we discuss best practices for modeling experimental data and outline how these models can guide material-level and system-level design.

42 ENGINEERING↗

DOE OSTI2025

Self-consistent modeling of tokamak edge plasma transport with lithium sources

Magnetic confinement fusion devices require effective heat and particle exhaust solutions on the divertor plates to operate sustainably, especially under reactor-relevant conditions. Liquid lithium divertors have been proposed to address two major challenges: control of excessive heat flux to plasma-facing components through vapor shielding and minimization of core plasma contamination from impurities. The National Spherical Torus Experiment-Upgrade (NSTX-U) will explore lithium as a divertor material due to its potential to meet both objectives. We present a self-consistent coupling framework between the plasma boundary transport code UEDGE and the lithium wall transport code Wall–Li to evaluate the feasibility and operational limits of lithium-based divertors. The model aims to optimize lithium sourcing levels to prevent core plasma contamination via fuel dilution while ensuring divertor protection through vapor shielding. This integrated framework, applicable to any tokamak with lithium sources, dynamically adjusts lithium sourcing based on local plasma conditions and surface temperature. The coupled model is tested using NSTX-like geometry and plasma conditions to assess its performance and reliability. Wall–Li calculates lithium fluxes from plasma-facing components, incorporating physical sputtering, thermally enhanced sputtering, and evaporation driven by surface temperature and ion flux. These fluxes are reintroduced into UEDGE as neutral lithium atoms, enabling simulation of their transport and distribution within the plasma. UEDGE computes plasma and neutral transport, surface heat flux, and iteratively feeds this information back to Wall–Li. A small time step is employed to ensure numerical stability and convergence, enabling accurate simulations over typical tokamak discharge durations. This integrated modeling approach provides a robust tool for identifying operational regimes that balance effective lithium sourcing with minimal core plasma contamination, offering critical insights for optimizing lithium-based divertor systems in current and future fusion devices.

Magnetic confinement fusion↗

DOE OSTI2025

Equilibrium-gated pattern formation: How molecular dissociation thermodynamics drive emergent behavior in dissipative polymeric systems

Emergent patterns in biological systems arise through dissipative processes that balance reaction and transport phenomena, producing highly functional properties from self-regulating mechanisms. Synthetic fabrication, by contrast, often relies on user-controlled, multistep methods that lack the self-organizing capabilities of natural systems. Inspired by nature, we sought chemical systems that integrate strongly coupled reaction and transport phenomena, identifying frontal ring-opening metathesis polymerization (FROMP) as a method capable of creating diverse forms and functions through reactive processing. By employing discrete molecular initiators, FROMP allows precise control of key reaction steps—inhibition, initiation, and propagation. Using an integrated computational and experimental framework, we uncover how near-equilibrium inhibition dynamics, coupled with far-from-equilibrium reaction kinetics, drive pattern formation in frontally polymerized synthetic materials. We propose the concept of equilibrium-gated pattern formation, demonstrating how initiator chemistry can be tuned to achieve programmable macroscale properties. Our study reveals a surprising insight: Emergent behavior in FROMP systems arises from the inhibition-dominated regime of resin composition, expanding prior observations that such behavior is confined to a narrow compositional space near the boundary between front quenching and uniform front propagation. We identify a broader compositional window, far from the quenching regime, where emergent behavior reliably manifests. This expanded design space significantly enhances the operational flexibility of reactive systems and their capacity for self-organization. Furthermore, these insights provide a roadmap for designing bioinspired materials with self-organizing capabilities, unlocking possibilities in synthetic manufacturing.

Architected Polymers↗

DOE OSTI2021

Edge localized mode characteristics and divertor heat flux during stationary and transient phase for CFETR hybrid scenario

The study of edge localized mode (ELM) behavior, stationary heat flux and transient heat flux during the ELM crash phase is performed for a China Fusion Engineering Test Reactor (CFETR) 1 GW hybrid mode operation scenario ($R$ = 7.2 m, ${B_{\text{T}}}$ = 6.5 T, ${I_{\text{p}}}$ = 13.78 MA). Modeling and simulation start with a scenario obtained by multi-code integrated modeling on the one modeling framework for integrated tasks framework. Linear stability and nonlinear simulations of ELM dynamics are carried out using the BOUT++ six-field reduced magnetohydrodynamic module, which show a much smaller ELM energy loss (Δ ELM ~ 0.13%) compared to that of a Type-I ELM. Parametric analysis of the weak linear growth rate and small ELM energy loss characteristics shed light on physics corresponding to a grassy ELM regime for CFETR 1 GW hybrid scenario. The transient heat flux on the divertor target during this small ELM phase is investigated using BOUT++. Here we found that upstream radial transport in the scrape-off-layer (SOL) induced by small ELMs is weak, which keeps it in the drift-dominated region. However, the heat flux width is still broadened to ${\lambda _{\text{q}}}$ = 4.64 mm by the increase of separatrix temperature during ELM nonlinear evolution. The impact of transient peak heat load and ELM energy fluence on tungsten melting and net erosion rate of divertor target is evaluated for the first-time using physics-based transport that connects the pedestal with the SOL. Energy fluence caused by a single ELM pulse is below the tungsten melting limit, while tungsten erosion would exceed the material requirements. We conclude that external mitigation methods, such as divertor detachment and advanced divertor geometry are likely needed for the steady state operation of CFETR.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

DOE OSTI2024

Simulations of tokamak edge plasma turbulent fluctuations based on a minimal 3D model

In this study, a new simulation model for tokamak boundary plasma, SOLT3D, is implemented in the BOUT++ framework. The simulation model includes a set of dynamic equations describing collisional boundary plasma and neutral gas in the tokamak scrape-off layer and divertor region. The model is verified against standard linear plasma instabilities and available nonlinear results. For L-mode like conditions, SOLT3D reproduces characteristics of boundary plasma turbulent fluctuations that are similar to published experimental data, in terms of the amplitude and spatial dependence of the fluctuations. It also reproduces realistic plasma fluxes on material surfaces and expected Bohm-like effective radial transport. Plasma fluctuations inferred from the simulations imply inevitably a significant level of intrinsic 'noise' for axisymmetric tokamak plasma transport modeling, introducing errors on the order of unity. In particular, the toroidally averaged atomic rates below 5–10 eV are strongly modified by turbulent plasma fluctuations, which should significantly affect the standard axisymmetric modeling of the tokamak edge plasma and divertor.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

DOE OSTI2025

Bridging reaction theory and nuclear structure in $π^±-$ 48 Ca scattering

Here, we extend the pion-nucleus multiple-scattering framework to include detailed second-order rescattering dynamics for nuclei with nonzero isospin. To account for intermediate charge-exchange and nucleon spin-flip effects, we develop a scattering potential that depends on the one- and two-body densities of the target nucleus. We compute one-body densities from coupled-cluster theory and two-body densities within the Hartree-Fock approximation. To estimate theoretical uncertainties, we employ modern nuclear Hamiltonians derived from chiral effective field theory. While the sensitivity to nuclear structure details is mild, second-order corrections are found to be sizable and essential for accurately reproducing differential cross sections measured in 𝜋 ± − 48 Ca elastic scattering within the Δ⁡(1232)-resonance region.

cluster models↗

DOE OSTI2021

Exploring origins for correlations between flow harmonics and transverse momentum in small collision systems

High statistics data sets from experiments at the Relativistic Heavy Ion Collider (RHIC) and the Large Hadron Collider (LHC) with small and large collision species have enabled a wealth of new flow measurements, including the event-by-event correlation between observables. One exciting such observable $ρ(v^2_n, [p_T])$ gauges the correlation between the mean transverse momentum of particles in an event and the various flow coefficients (v n ) in the same event [P. Bozek, Phys. Rev. C 93, 044908 (2016)]. Recently it has been proposed that very low multiplicity events may be sensitive to initial-state glasma correlations [G. Giacalone, B. Schenke, and C. Shen, Phys. Rev. Lett. 125, 192301 (2020)] rather than flow-related dynamics. We find utilizing the ip-jazma framework that the color domain explanation for the glasma results are incomplete. We then explore predictions from pythia8, and the version for including nuclear collisions called pythia-angantyr, which have only nonflow correlations, and from the ampt model which has both nonflow and flow-type correlations. We find that pythia-angantyr has nonflow contributions to $ρ(v^2_n, [p_T])$ in p + O, p + Pb, and O + O collisions that are positive at low multiplicity and comparable to the glasma correlations. It is striking that in pythia8 in p + p collisions there is actually a sign change from positive to negative $ρ(v^2_n, [p_T])$ as a function of multiplicity. The ampt results match the experimental data general trends in Pb+Pb collisions at the LHC, except at low multiplicity where ampt has the opposite sign. In p + Pb collisions, ampt has the opposite sign from experimental data and we explore this within the context of parton geometry. Predictions for p + O, O + O, and Xe + Xe are also presented.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗