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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2023

DAISY Complement Protein ML-Ready Data

A total of 172 children from the DAISY study with multiple plasma samples collected over time, with up to 23 years of follow-up, were characterized via proteomics analysis. Of the children there were 40 controls and 132 cases. All 132 cases had measurements across time relative to IA. Sampling was not consistent for all children. There were 47 of the children who had samples taken and evaluated prior to IA (Pre-IA), and 131 children had measurements at or after IA, but prior to diagnosis of clinical T1D (Post-IA). The control children were frequency matched on HLA genotypes and age and sex with an observed lower frequency of first degree relatives within the control group versus the cases For machine learning the children that will develop islet autoantibodies the 40 control and 47 Pre-IA children were down-selected to a single sample time point. For the 40 control children this was the earliest sample collected and for the 47 Pre-IA children it was a random selection of the first or second time point prior to the detection of autoantibodies to assure the age distributions were not significantly different.

machine learning, proteomics, Type 1 Diabetes, com↗
DOE OSTI2021

From Femtoseconds to Gigaseconds: The SolDeg Platform for the Performance Degradation Analysis of Silicon Heterojunction Solar Cells

Heterojunction Si solar cells exhibit notable performance degradation. Here, we modeled this degradation by electronic defects getting generated by thermal activation across energy barriers over time. To analyze the physics of this degradation, we developed the SolDeg platform to simulate the dynamics of electronic defect generation. First, femtosecond molecular dynamics simulations were performed to create a-Si/c-Si stacks, using the machine learning-based Gaussian approximation potential. Second, we created shocked clusters by a cluster blaster method. Third, the shocked clusters were analyzed to identify which of them supported electronic defects. Fourth, the distribution of energy barriers that control the generation of these electronic defects was determined. Fifth, an accelerated Monte Carlo method was developed to simulate the thermally activated time-dependent defect generation across the barriers. Our main conclusions are as follows. (1) The degradation of a-Si/c-Si heterojunction solar cells via defect generation is controlled by a broad distribution of energy barriers. (2) We developed the SolDeg platform to track the microscopic dynamics of defect generation across this wide barrier distribution and determined the time-dependent defect density N(t) from femtoseconds to gigaseconds, over 24 orders of magnitude in time. (3) We have shown that a stretched exponential analytical form can successfully describe the defect generation N(t) over at least 10 orders of magnitude in time. (4) We found that in relative terms, Voc degrades at a rate of 0.2%/year over the first year, slowing with advancing time. (5) We developed the time correspondence curve to calibrate and validate the accelerated testing of solar cells. We found a compellingly simple scaling relationship between accelerated and normal times t normal ∝ t accel T(accel)/T(normal) . (6) We also carried out experimental studies of defect generation in a-Si:H/c-Si stacks. We found a relatively high degradation rate at early times that slowed considerably at longer time scales.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2021

High Value Opportunities to Advance Automation in Electric Grid Control Rooms

Grid operators and electric utilities are increasingly driven to develop automated processes and introduce decision support tools to reduce cognitive demand on System Operations staff and aid in the operational decision-making process. However, System Operation staff are traditionally hesitant to implement and accept new solutions, automation processes, and tools within the control room. This paper explores high-value opportunities to advance automation in electric grid control rooms for the purpose of improving grid safety, reliability, and resiliency during normal and emergency operating conditions.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2024

Cybersecurity Considerations for Emerging Energy Technologies

AI, cloud computing, post-quantum cryptography, zero-trust architectures, microgrids, and virtual power plants. What do these things have in common? They are all emerging technologies in the clean energy space that will be a critical part of grid modernization efforts. As we work towards clean energy and decarbonization targets, these technologies, developed to solve real-world problems, will help us reach goals and achieve new efficiencies as the paradigm of grid operation shifts. However, there are growing concerns about the cybersecurity risks associated with these trending topics as they are used in critical infrastructure applications. This talk will cover gaps, challenges, and opportunities for the secure implementation of grid modernization solutions and novel energy applications of state-of-the-art networking and communications. Proactive risk mitigation strategies, including the application of cyber-informed engineering, will be discussed. Practical applications of these techniques will help provide countermeasures to the impact of cyberattacks on critical infrastructure technologies in a new, digitized grid landscape.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2020

The MolSSI QCArchive project: An open-source platform to compute, organize, and share quantum chemistry data

The Molecular Sciences Software Institute's (MolSSI) Quantum Chemistry Archive (QCArchive) project is an umbrella name that covers both a central server hosted by MolSSI for community data and the Python-based software infrastructure that powers automated computation and storage of quantum chemistry (QC) results. The MolSSI-hosted central server provides the computational molecular sciences community a location to freely access tens of millions of QC computations for machine learning, methodology assessment, force-field fitting, and more through a Python interface. Facile, user-friendly mining of the centrally archived quantum chemical data also can be achieved through web applications found at the website. The software infrastructure can be used as a standalone platform to compute, structure, and distribute hundreds of millions of QC computations for individuals or groups of researchers at any scale. The QCArchiveInfrastructure is open-source (BSD-3C), code repositories can be found at github, and releases can be downloaded via PyPI and Conda. This article is categorized under: Electronic Structure Theory > Ab Initio Electronic Structure Methods Software > Quantum Chemistry Data Science > Computer Algorithms and Programming

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2020

Machine learning Frenkel Hamiltonian parameters to accelerate simulations of exciton dynamics

In this manuscript, we develop multiple machine learning (ML) models to accelerate a scheme for parameterizing site-based models of exciton dynamics from all-atom configurations of condensed phase sexithiophene systems. This scheme encodes the details of a system’s specific molecular morphology in the correlated distributions of model parameters through the analysis of many single-molecule excited-state electronic-structure calculations. These calculations yield excitation energies for each molecule in the system and the network of pair-wise intermolecular electronic couplings. In this work, we demonstrate that the excitation energies can be accurately predicted using a kernel ridge regression (KRR) model with Coulomb matrix featurization. We present two ML models for predicting intermolecular couplings. The first one utilizes a deep neural network and bi-molecular featurization to predict the coupling directly, which we find to perform poorly. The second one utilizes a KRR model to predict unimolecular transition densities, which can subsequently be analyzed to compute the coupling. We find that the latter approach performs excellently, indicating that an effective, generalizable strategy for predicting simple bimolecular properties is through the indirect application of ML to predict higher-order unimolecular properties. Such an approach necessitates a much smaller feature space and can incorporate the insight of well-established molecular physics.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2023

Panorama 360 (Final Report)

This is the final technical report for the DOE-funded Panorama 360 project. Panorama 360 provided a resource for the collection, analysis, and sharing of performance data about end-to-end scientific workflows executing on DOE facilities. The work focused on workflows that include experimental data generation at DOE facilities. The main activities of Panorama 360 include the development of: 1. A distributed repository that stores different types of workflow execution data (e.g., point and time series performance traces at fine- and coarse-grained levels); 2. A set of open-source data capture, curation, and publishing tools fully integrated with a state-of-the-art workflow management system that automates data ingestion to the repository and enables users to discover, query, and process data from the repository; 3. A set of analysis algorithms and machine learning based tools to perform analysis and characterization of the gathered data, which can be used to detect anomalous performance or system faults; and 4. Best practices and recommendations for workflow evaluation, analysis, execution, and architectures.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2023

Going off topics to demix quark and gluon jets in α S extractions

Quantum chromodynamics is the theory of the strong interaction between quarks and gluons; the coupling strength of the interaction, α S , is the least precisely-known of all interactions in nature. An extraction of the strong coupling from the radiation pattern within jets would provide a complementary approach to conventional extractions from jet production rates and hadronic event shapes, and would be a key achievement of jet substructure at the Large Hadron Collider (LHC). Presently, the relative fraction of quark and gluon jets in a sample is the limiting factor in such extractions, as this fraction is degenerate with the value of αS for the most well-understood observables. To overcome this limitation, we apply recently proposed techniques to statistically demix multiple mixtures of jets and obtain purified quark and gluon distributions based on an operational definiton. We illustrate that studying quark and gluon jet substructure separately can significantly improve the sensitivity of such extractions of the strong coupling. We also discuss how using machine learning techniques or infrared- and collinear-unsafe information can improve the demixing performance without the loss of theoretical control. While theoretical research is required to connect the extract topics with the quark and gluon objects in cross section calculations, our study illustrates the potential of demixing to reduce the dominant uncertainty for the α S extraction from jet substructure at the LHC.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗
DOE OSTI2024

The mass profiles of dwarf galaxies from Dark Energy Survey lensing

We present a novel approach to extracting dwarf galaxies from photometric data to measure their average halo mass profile with weak lensing. We characterize their stellar mass and redshift distributions with a spectroscopic calibration sample. By combining the ${\sim} 5000\,\mathrm{deg}^2$ multiband photometry from the Dark Energy Survey and redshifts from the Satellites Around Galactic Analogs Survey with an unsupervised machine learning method, we select a low-mass galaxy sample spanning redshifts $z\lt 0.3$ and divide it into three mass bins. From low to high median mass, the bins contain [146 420, 330 146, 275 028] galaxies and have median stellar masses of $\log _{10}(M_*/\text{M}_\odot)=\left[8.52\substack{+0.57 -0.76},\, 9.02\substack{+0.50 -0.64},\, 9.49\substack{+0.50 -0.58}\right]$ . We measure the stacked excess surface mass density profiles, $\Delta \Sigma (R)$, of these galaxies using galaxy–galaxy lensing with a signal-to-noise ratio of [14, 23, 28]. Through a simulation-based forward-modelling approach, we fit the measurements to constrain the stellar-to-halo mass relation and find the median halo mass of these samples to be $\log _{10}(M_{\rm halo}/\text{M}_\odot)$ = [$10.67\substack{+0.2 -0.4}$, $11.01\substack{+0.14 -0.27}$, $11.40\substack{+0.08 -0.15}$]. The cold dark matter profiles are consistent with NFW (Navarro, Frenk, and White) profiles over scales ${\lesssim} 0.15 \, {h}^{-1}$ Mpc. We find that ${\sim} 20$ per cent of the dwarf galaxy sample are satellites. This is the first measurement of the halo profiles and masses of such a comprehensive, low-mass galaxy sample. The techniques presented here pave the way for extracting and analysing even lower mass dwarf galaxies and for more finely splitting galaxies by their properties with future photometric and spectroscopic survey data.

dark matter↗
DOE OSTI2025

PickerXL, A Large Deep Learning Model to Measure Arrival Times from Noisy Seismic Signals

Precisely measuring seismic arrival times is a labor-intensive task but is critical for both earthquake monitoring and subsurface imaging. Recently published deep learning models have demonstrated superior performance compared to traditional automatic approaches for picking arrival times. Although existing deep learning models have shown promising results, further advancements are necessary as their performance is not yet satisfactory especially when applied to new regions and station networks. Increasing model size has led to improved performance in other machine learning applications. Here, we aimed to investigate whether enlarging deep learning models can increase performance on accepted benchmarks. We trained three models of varying sizes, small (1X), medium (4X), and large (16X), using globally distributed local and regional earthquake signals and background noise waveforms from a benchmark dataset, Stanford Earthquake Dataset. Our results indicate that the largest model (PickerXL) outperforms both the smaller models and Seisbench implementation of the PhaseNet model, which has the same number of parameters as our small model. The PickerXL model’s enhanced capacity to extract complex patterns from seismograms contributes to its superior arrival picking abilities compared to the smaller model.

Chai, Chengping [Oak Ridge National Laboratory (OR↗
DOE OSTI2023

HIGH-LOW FIDELITY THERMAL HYDRAULIC COUPLING USING AI/MACHINE LEARNING ALGORITHMS

The primary goal of the US Department of Energy (DOE) office of Nuclear Energy Integrated Energy Systems (IES) program is to develop the tools and framework for coupling multi-scale and multi-physical thermal and electrical energy usage and storage systems. High- and low-fidelity (high–low) coupling is a key feature of multi-scale, multi-component systems and has been an important focus of research in the nuclear energy community for the past two decades. An essential feature of demonstrating the capability to couple high-fidelity and low-fidelity systems for real-time applications are surrogate/reduced order models (ROM). For the purposes of this study, surrogate models are essentially Blackbox models, typically developed using supervised Machine learning (ML) algorithms. The surrogate models can be used to mimic the response of high-fidelity models to represent large historical datasets and coupled with more general low-fidelity system models distributed as Functional Mock-up Interface (FMI) or Functional Mock-up Units (FMU) modules. The example is demonstrated with Spallation Neutron Source (SNS) First Target Station flow loop data. The flow loop is a liquid mercury loop with a pump, piping, heat exchange, and internal heat generation in the target window. This work elucidates some of the potential benefits and future needs of developing tools for high–low system coupling of energy systems.

Williams, Wesley↗
DOE OSTI2024

Accelerating science: The usage of commercial clouds in ATLAS Distributed Computing

The ATLAS experiment at CERN is one of the largest scientific machines built to date and will have ever growing computing needs as the Large Hadron Collider collects an increasingly larger volume of data over the next 20 years. ATLAS is conducting R&D projects on Amazon Web Services and Google Cloud as complementary resources for distributed computing, focusing on some of the key features of commercial clouds: lightweight operation, elasticity and availability of multiple chip architectures. The proof of concept phases have concluded with the cloud-native, vendoragnostic integration with the experiment’s data and workload management frameworks. Google Cloud has been used to evaluate elastic batch computing, ramping up ephemeral clusters of up to O(100k) cores to process tasks requiring quick turnaround. Amazon Web Services has been exploited for the successful physics validation of the Athena simulation software on ARM processors. We have also set up an interactive facility for physics analysis allowing endusers to spin up private, on-demand clusters for parallel computing with up to 4 000 cores, or run GPU enabled notebooks and jobs for machine learning applications. The success of the proof of concept phases has led to the extension of the Google Cloud project, where ATLAS will study the total cost of ownership of a production cloud site during 15 months with 10k cores on average, fully integrated with distributed grid computing resources and continue the R&D projects.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗
DOE OSTI2022

A Machine‐Learning‐Assisted Stochastic Cloud Population Model as a Parameterization of Cumulus Convection

Abstract A machine‐learning‐assisted stochastic cloud population model is coupled with the Advanced Research Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model to represent fluctuations in the cloud‐base mass flux associated with the life cycles and interactions among cumulus convection cells. In this cloud population model, the size distribution and the associated cloud‐base mass flux of the convective cells are related to their previous state and to the change in the total convective area via a transition function. The convective area tendency in turn is assumed to depend on the cloud‐base mass flux that is resolved by the host WRF model. The transition function is represented by a single hidden‐layer neural network trained by the evolution of convective cell size distributions in a 1‐km grid‐spacing WRF simulation run over the Australian Monsoon region. At every grid point of the host model, the cloud population model predicts the cell size and cloud‐base mass flux distributions from which a random sample of cells is fed to an entraining parcel model that calculates precipitation as well as the associated liquid water potential temperature and total moisture tendencies. These tendencies are averaged over the cells and provided to the host model. Several regional simulations are performed over tropical and midlatitude domains to test this as a potential approach to scale‐aware parameterization. It is shown that such an approach could be a new promising path to simulating realistic precipitation statistics and propagation of precipitation associated with the Madden‐Julian Oscillation while maintaining realistic depictions of the diurnal cycle over both land and ocean.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Learning from many collider events at once

There have been a number of recent proposals to enhance the performance of machine learning strategies for collider physics by combining many distinct events into a single ensemble feature. To evaluate the efficacy of these proposals, we study the connection between single-event classifiers and multievent classifiers under the assumption that collider events are independent and identically distributed. We show how one can build optimal multievent classifiers from single-event classifiers, and we also show how to construct multievent classifiers such that they produce optimal single-event classifiers. This is illustrated for a Gaussian example as well as for classification tasks relevant for searches and measurements at the Large Hadron Collider. We extend our discussion to regression tasks by showing how they can be phrased in terms of parametrized classifiers. Empirically, we find that training a single-event (per-instance) classifier is more effective than training a multievent (per-ensemble) classifier, as least for the cases we studied, and we relate this fact to properties of the loss function gradient in the two cases. While we did not identify a clear benefit from using multievent classifiers in the collider context, we speculate on the potential value of these methods in cases involving only approximate independence, as relevant for jet substructure studies.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗
DOE OSTI2025

Toward equitable environmental exposure modeling through convergence of data, open, and citizen sciences: an example of air pollution exposure modeling amidst increasing wildfire smoke

Exposure modeling is critical in environmental epidemiology and human health but may face challenges (e.g., skewed data, unequal error, context-insensitive validation, and computational demands). Modeling decisions reflect the intended use of the models and the values that modelers prioritize. We aimed to provide a conceptual framework and machine learning (ML) modeling protocols that address these issues. With 500m-gridded hourly PM 2.5 and O 3 levels in Illinois before, during, and after the 2023 Canadian wildfire season as a motivating example, we conducted modeling experiments to evaluate modeling methods, guided by three domains we propose based on theories of science: 1) Data Diversity, leveraging open and citizen science data to enhance inclusivity, parsimony, and representativeness; 2) Equitable Accuracy, ensuring fairly distributed uncertainties across subpopulations; and 3) Sustainable Modeling, balancing accuracy with reducing computational demands to promote accessibility for under-resourced researchers. Here, we found that ML with publicly available data can achieve high accuracy. Depending on methods, performance may vary substantially, even with identical input data. Large but skewed data may reduce performance. Misuse of cross-validation protocols can underestimate prediction error; although we observed R 2 s of ∼98 %, the modeled estimates varied significantly, indicating the need for careful model validation. By using new modeling protocols including representativeness-considered training and validation data and a new loss function, we achieved high agreement between estimates and ground-based measurements (e.g., R 2 = ∼90 % for PM 2.5 ; ∼80 % for O 3 ), equally distributed errors across sociodemographic strata and urban–rural divides, and reduction in computation time—from several weeks or months to a few days.

Exposure assessment↗
DOE OSTI2022

Atikokan Digital Twin: Machine learning in a biomass energy system

The Atikokan Generating Station, operated by Ontario Power Generation, has a 200 MW, biomass-fired tower boiler that operates on a dispatch schedule with a five-minute cycle. The boiler is generally operated in the range of 40–100 MW using two of five burner levels. In order to optimize boiler performance, we propose the implementation of a unique digital twin. Our digital twin abstraction couples Bayesian inference from science-based models and from observations (machine learning) with decision theory to predict operating-variable set points that optimize the physical asset (the boiler) in the presence of uncertainty (artificial intelligence). We focus this paper on the continuous Bayesian machine learning part of the Atikokan Digital Twin; we discuss decision theory in a companion paper. We identify and learn about 12 operational, model, and measured-output parameters and their uncertainties from high-fidelity, science-based simulations of the Atikokan boiler and from the observed measurements at the power plant. Since the goal of the Atikokan Digital Twin is to implement it online in real time, we require fast function evaluations for the quantities of interest extracted from the simulations in the Bayesian analysis. We use Gaussian process regression/interpolation to create accurate, robust surrogate models. We define the Bayesian priors and likelihood function and solve for the posterior distributions of the 12 parameters. Here we then propagate these distributions (i.e., parameters with uncertainty) into the predicted distributions of 790 quantities of interest to learn about the relative importance of various sources of error including experimental, model, and operating-parameter errors.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗
DOE OSTI2020

Application of multidimensional structural characterization to detect and describe moderate forest disturbance

The study of vegetation community and structural change has been central to ecology for over a century, yet the ways in which disturbances reshape the physical structure of forest canopies remain relatively unknown. Moderate severity disturbances affect different canopy strata and plant species, resulting in variable structural outcomes and ecological consequences. Terrestrial lidar (light detection and ranging) offers an unprecedented view of the interior arrangement and distribution of canopy elements, permitting the derivation of multidimensional measures of canopy structure that describe several canopy structural traits (CSTs) with known links to ecosystem function. We used lidar-derived CSTs within a machine learning framework to detect and describe the structural changes that result from various disturbance agents, including moderate severity fire, ice storm damage, age-related senescence, hemlock woolly adelgid, beech bark disease, and chronic acidification. We found that fire and ice storms primarily affected the amount and position of vegetation within canopies, while acidification, senescence, pathogen, and insect infestation altered canopy arrangement and complexity. Only two of the six disturbance agents significantly reduced leaf area, counter to common assumptions regarding many moderate severity disturbances. While findings are limited in their generalizability due to lack of replication among disturbances, they do suggest that the current limitations of standard disturbance detection methods—such as optical-based remote sensing platforms, which are often above-canopy perspectives—limit our ability to understand the full ecological and structural impacts of disturbance, and to evaluate the consistency of structural patterns within and among disturbance agents. A more broadly inclusive definition of ecological disturbance that incorporates multiple aspects of canopy structural change may potentially improve the modeling, detection, and prediction of functional implications of moderate severity disturbance as well as broaden our understanding of the ecological impacts of disturbance.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

Ex Machina Determination of Structural Correlation Functions

Determining the structural properties of condensed-phase systems is a fundamental problem in theoretical statistical mechanics. In this study, we present a machine learning method that is able to predict structural correlation functions with significantly improved accuracy in comparison with traditional approaches. The usefulness of this ex machina (from the machine) approach is illustrated by predicting the radial distribution functions of two paradigmatic condensed-phase systems, a Lennard-Jones fluid and a hard-sphere fluid, and then comparing those results to the results obtained using both integral equation methods and empirically motivated analytical functions. We find that application of the developed ex machina method typically decreases the predictive error by more than an order of magnitude in comparison with traditional theoretical methods.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗