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DOE OSTI2023

Emerging Trends in Freight [Slides]

Freight transportation accounts for only 5% of the vehicles on U.S. roads, but 10% of vehicle miles of travel and 27% of on-road energy use. With rail and water, freight accounts for 28% of U.S. transportation energy and emissions. Trucking is the primary mode for transporting goods, but rail is a significant mode for longer shipments. Economic, technological, and operational trends pose both challenges and opportunities to meet U.S. demand for goods movement as well as national decarbonization goals. This presentation provides a systems perspective for energy efficiency freight mobility and an overview of available NREL analytical tools to address these challenges.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
DOE OSTI2023

Modeling of Particle Thermal Energy Reservoir for Solar Industrial Process Heat (Final Technical Report)

Industrial process heat is a leading source of carbon emissions in the United States. To achieve decarbonization goals and reduce costs, solar industrial process heat (SIPH) systems have been investigated as a means of providing a carbon-free heat supply. Particle thermal energy storage (TES) could supplement solar resources (i.e., concentrating solar thermal and photovoltaics) to enable a high capacity factor (> 90%), carbon-free heat source. Particle TES has been considered due to its low-cost storage medium and capability to support a wide range of temperatures. This report provides technical details of developing a component and system modeling tool for a unique particle TES platform to assist the adoption of SIPH technology.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2023

COP28 Outcomes Report: Executive Summary

Net Zero World, launched at COP26, is a flagship U.S. effort to partner with countries in accelerating transitions to clean energy systems. This initiative brings together world-class experts and resources from 10 U.S. Department of Energy national laboratories and nine U.S. government agencies. Collaboratively, they work with technical and government representatives from Argentina, Chile, Egypt, Indonesia, Nigeria, Singapore, Thailand, and Ukraine to advance decarbonization in these economies.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
DOE OSTI2024

Nuclear Energy Cost Estimates for Net Zero World Initiative

This report provides recommended parameters for incorporating nuclear energy systems into decarbonization modeling scenarios. The values are primarily intended for the Net Zero World (NZW) Initiative but are expected to prove useful to other related efforts. Both costs and operational metrics are provided in the study. Several cost factors, namely overnight capital costs (OCC) and operational costs are taken to be country specific. OCC is defined as the value of building the reactor in one night considering all costs prior to the start of operations including fuel for the initial core load. The value assumes the build is neither a first nor a ‘Nth’ of a kind, but somewhere in between. All costs are escalated to 2022 USD values.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗
DOE OSTI2024

Reviewing Flexibility in Industrial Electrification: U.S. Green Ammonia and Steel Industries [Slides]

The renewable energy transition in the power sector involves a paradigm shift for flexibility. Supply flexibility faces new constraints due to the increased share of variable renewable resources. Increased demand flexibility can allow less use of peaking power plants and delay need for additional capacity and transmission. Industrial customers are larger on average than residential and commercial consumers and have typically provided the largest share of demand response in the United States. We consider industrial demand, studying characteristics of flexible industrial loads. We examine the dynamics of change occurring around industrial load flexibility by focusing on two case studies: green ammonia and steel production via electric arc furnaces. Electric arc furnace steel production is an important component of current demand response programs, whereas green ammonia and green fuels offer new paradigms for flexibility. We analyze the structure and functions of the technological innovation systems of load flexibility in those two industries via interviews with twenty-two stakeholders. We conclude that the technological innovation systems are not well-functioning for flexibility in EAF based steelmaking, but are in the green ammonia space. Explicit connections between scope two greenhouse gas emissions reporting and flexibility are lacking, and industry stakeholders do not appear to make a connection between decarbonization and load flexibility.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗
DOE OSTI2024

End-Use Savings Shapes Measure Documentation: Boiler Replacement with Air-Source Heat Pump Boiler and Natural Gas Boiler Backup

Building on the successfully completed effort to calibrate and validate the U.S. Department of Energy's ResStock (™) and ComStock (™) models over the past three years, the objective of this work is to produce national data sets that empower analysts working for federal, state, utility, city, and manufacturer stakeholders to answer a broad range of analysis questions. The goal of this work is to develop energy efficiency, electrification, and demand flexibility end-use load shapes (electricity, gas, propane, or fuel oil) that cover a majority of the high-impact, market-ready (or nearly market-ready) measures. "Measures" refers to energy efficiency variables that can be applied to buildings during modeling. An end-use savings shape is the difference in energy consumption between a baseline building and a building with an energy efficiency, electrification, or demand flexibility measure applied. It results in a time-series profile that is broken down by end use and fuel (electricity or on-site gas, propane, or fuel oil use) at each timestep. ComStock is a highly granular, bottom-up model that uses multiple data sources, statistical sampling methods, and advanced building energy simulations to estimate the annual subhourly energy consumption of the commercial building stock across the United States. The baseline model intends to represent the U.S. commercial building stock as it existed in 2018. The methodology and results of the baseline model are discussed in the final technical report of the End-Use Load Profiles project. This documentation focuses on a single end-use savings shape measure - boiler replacement with air-source heat pump boiler with natural gas boiler backup. This measure replaces natural gas boilers for HVAC application by air-source heat pump boilers when applicable and use natural gas boiler backup when the heat pump boiler could not operate due to outdoor air conditions which are below its cutoff temperature. This measure helps to quantify the decarbonization as well as the energy savings potential from the replacement. The measure resulted higher savings in natural gas consumption compared to the increase in electricity consumption, with a ratio of 3. The total natural gas energy consumption was reduced by 41%, whereas the total electricity consumption was increased by 5.3%.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
DOE OSTI2024

2023 IEDO Peer Review Report

On behalf of the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Industrial Efficiency and Decarbonization Office (IEDO), we are pleased to share the report from our 2023 peer review. Peer review provides us with invaluable insight into our office strategy and program direction from a diverse group of external thought leaders. The findings and actionable recommendations from peer review inform our decision making and help us maintain a constant state of evolution and growth.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
DOE OSTI2024

Leadership and Community Engagement in Chile: Deploying Net-Zero Technologies and Solutions

The report presents the 2023 Net Zero World Chile program results from activities of the the four program workstreams: 1) energy-system wide modeling LEAP modeling and analysis results including accelerated Net Zero scenarios with aggressive energy efficiency improvements, fuel switching, and electrification across demand sector; 2) district energy chapter provides thermal district energy systems modeling results of the Recoleta-Independencia pilot project and comparative analysis of district energy systems' potential versus competing technologies in Chile; 3) just transition action steps for the creation of a sister city relationship between Tocopilla and a US counterpart city; and 4) power decarbonization capacity building activities focused on the selection and adoption of grid-enhancing technologies.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
DOE OSTI2024

Thermal Integration of Advanced Nuclear Reactors with a Reference Refinery, Methanol Synthesis, and a Wood Pulp Plant (Rev.1)

The present report is intended to provide process flow diagrams (PFDs) and energy and mass balance data sheets for a U.S. industrial sector subset with which nuclear heat and power could be integrated—a subset that includes the oil refining, methanol and pulp and paper industries. Coupling options for integrating nuclear energy into these industries are quantitatively outlined for reference systems, and future work will extend this analysis in greater detail. Opportunities for integrating small modular nuclear reactors (SMNRs) were investigated for each of the industrial process configurations. Aspen HYSYS and Cycle-Tempo models for a high-temperature gas-cooled reactor were developed to evaluate the proposed integration. This introductory evaluation provides a general description and assessment of the operating principles, reactor coolant core outlet temperature, and reactor size to be integrated with industry. The industrial processes of oil refining and the production of methanol, pulp and paper were simulated by using Aspen HYSYS, Aspen Plus, and the PRELIM (Petroleum Refinery Life Cycle Inventory Model) tool to develop process details. Cycle-Tempo models then extend the process modeling results to obtain net energy demands (e.g., heat, steam, and electricity) when accounting for process steam and waste heat recovery. This information is intended to foster the analysis of integrating an SMNR to decarbonize industrial facilities. The SMNR would provide reliable, competitive, and sustainable clean energy while reducing carbon emissions and other environmental impacts, such as water withdrawals, consumption, and contamination. The refining industry, exhibited in Figure ES1, is a leading consumer of fossil -fuel-based heat, power, and hydrogen in the U.S. industrial sector, generating over 164 million metric tons (MMT) of CO 2 emissions in 2023. The overall mass and energy pertaining to a generalized complex refinery in the United States is reflected in Figure ES1, along with energy metrics regarding integration with a nuclear power plant (NPP). Data sheets were developed to indicate the energy requirements for the overall refinery and each refinery process. The data sheet for the overall refinery is shown in Table ES2.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗
DOE OSTI2025

Technology Case Study: Economic, Sustainability, and Deployment Considerations for Sustainable Aviation Fuels Produced via Lignocellulosic Sugar Catalysis

This report presents a technology case study reflecting one exemplary representative pathway for the conversion of lignocellulosic sugars to sustainable aviation fuels (SAF) via aqueous phase reforming (APR) catalysis, considered within a broader integrated biorefinery framework based on biochemical processing operations. While far from the only option for converting sugars to SAF, this pathway was selected as a case study here based on its relatively high technology maturity and simplistic processing approach (avoiding complex separations or other equipment scalability challenges), coupled with the potential for high fuel yields and favorable costs/carbon intensities with opportunities for further near-term optimization. The report considers key process integration and engineering design considerations for a modeled hypothetical, nth-plant commercial biorefinery, reflecting a number of processing options and parameters envisioned to be achievable as future goals. Resultant outputs from Aspen Plus process simulations are evaluated through techno-economic and life cycle analyses (TEA and LCA), including implications for marginal cost of CO2 abatement and inclusion of currently-applicable policy incentives. Moving beyond base case configurations, a number of alternative scenarios are also evaluated for their ability to further improve economics, greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, and marginal cost of abatement, highlighting a path to achieve deep decarbonization goals of more than 70% GHG reduction for SAF (with the potential to reach net-negative carbon intensities in some cases) under reasonable fuel production costs. The report also highlights future opportunities and gaps for further research on this technology pathway.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗
DOE OSTI2024

Nuclear Technology Selection and Preliminary Integration at St. Charles and Carrollton Chemical Plants

Nuclear energy is identified as a valuable candidate for decarbonizing industrial facilities as a non-emitting baseload energy source capable of dispatching energy as needed for an integrated facility. As industrial facilities are unique, analyzing what nuclear technology is the best candidate should be evaluated on a case-by-case basis. For two identified facilities of the Dow Chemical Company, an ideal mix of nuclear energy resources is calculated, and integration strategies are put forward. This research was funded through a Gateway for Accelerated Innovation in Nuclear (GAIN) Nuclear Energy Voucher, specifically seeking near-term engineering solutions for the technical issue of introducing nuclear generated energy into the Dow chemical facilities. The research is split into four main phases: background on reactors and chemical facilities, preliminary engineering analysis determining how reactor technologies may be integrated with specific facilities, site characterization and discrete hazards analysis, and finally an optimization of reactor-facility selection through the use of Framework for Optimization of ResourCes and Economics (FORCE) tools.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗
DOE OSTI2025

CSP Plant Optimization Study for the California Power Market (“CalCSP”) (Final Technical Report)

Concentrating Solar Power (CSP) with thermal energy storage offers a unique and strategic opportunity to support California’s clean energy transition. Unlike photovoltaic (PV) systems, CSP with thermal storage can generate electricity after sunset and during periods of high demand, making it a valuable complement to intermittent renewable resources. CSP also provides synchronous, inertia-contributing generation, long-duration storage, and flexible dispatch—capabilities increasingly important as thermal plants retire. This report summarizes the findings of the CSP Plant Optimization Study for the California Power Market or “CalCSP study,” which evaluated the technical, economic, environmental, and policy factors that influence the deployment of CSP technologies in California. The CalCSP study was conducted to assess how CSP can contribute to California’s long-term decarbonization goals while enhancing grid reliability, supporting local economic development, and making efficient use of land and transmission resources. It draws on detailed modeling of CSP performance and costs, site suitability analysis, policy reviews, and stakeholder engagement across utilities, regulators, developers, and community organizations. The analysis focuses on mature molten-salt tower technology and incorporates lessons learned from the global CSP fleet, distinguishing today’s CSP from earlier first-of-a-kind projects in the U.S. The findings support a more prominent role for CSP in California’s evolving clean energy landscape. With strategic planning, targeted policy support, and continued cost improvements, CSP can complement PV and batteries to deliver reliable, around-the-clock clean electricity—especially in areas with high solar resource and constrained grid capacity.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2022

GHG Emissions Inventory Report for LvivTeploEnergo (LTE)

PNNL prepared the greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions inventory for LTE to help gain international funding for modernization requirements necessary to decarbonize LTE’s DH network. The inventory itself provides a comprehensive account of total greenhouse gas emissions from (a) LTE’s transportation (commuting and product transport), (b) purchased electricity (for water heating, heat production, and other uses), and (c) heat production for the DH network. The greenhouse gases analyzed in the inventory are Carbon Dioxide (CO 2 ), Carbon Monoxide (CO), and Nitrogen Oxide (NO x ). All data gathered for the inventory came directly from previous years of LTE data, with total emissions of each activity calculated by using emission factors from several internationally reputable sources (e.g., United National Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), the ECLIPSE v6 dataset from the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA), the European Modeling and Evaluation Programme (EMEP), and the World Resources Institute (WRI)). This report further explains the methodology and justification for which scopes of emissions were included in the GHG emissions inventory spreadsheet and a description of references from which the emission factors were taken.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
DOE OSTI2025

Future marine biofuels in the port of Seattle region

Marine transportation, a vital global sector, emits 3% of global annual greenhouse gas emissions, which are predicted to increase in the future. Marine biofuels derived from biomass or waste sources like wood residue, waste oil and municipal solid waste can be used for decarbonization. However, limited studies have explored if sufficient marine biofuels could be produced and supplied to major regional ports given feedstock, supply chain and technological constraints. We fill this gap by evaluating the feasibility of supplying marine biofuels to the Port of Seattle. The Regional Bio-Economy Model (RBEM) and the Freight and Fuel Transportation Optimization Tool (FTOT) are used to build scenarios for simulating marine biofuel production in the Port region. We harmonized technoeconomic assumptions for RBEM and FTOT, input FTOT feedstock utilization and routing outputs into RBEM, and modelled conversion, feedstock, and policy scenario variations in RBEM. In RBEM, overall biofuel production was constrained primarily by the biofuel cost, and then by feedstock availability. Providing policy incentives and reducing permitting time frames alleviated these constraints and spurred the buildout of a robust industry through industrial learning dynamics in the initial years. With these measures in place, the RBEM results show that 100% of fuel demand at the Port can be supplied by biofuels with policy incentives and suitable technoeconomic conditions, but the addition of transportation cost considerations using FTOT led to 27.8% of demand being able to be met by biofuels at reasonable fuel delivery cost.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗
DOE OSTI2025

Probabilistic Deliverability Assessment of Distributed Energy Resources via Scenario-Based AC Optimal Power Flow

As electric grids decarbonize and distributed energy resources (DERs) become increasingly prevalent, interconnection assessments must evolve to reflect operational variability and control flexibility. This paper highlights key modeling limitations observed in practice and reviews approaches for modeling uncertainty. It then introduces a Probabilistic Deliverability Assessment (PDA) framework designed to complement and extend existing procedures. The framework integrates scenario-based AC optimal power flow (AC OPF), corrective dispatch, and optional multi-temporal constraints. Together, these form a structured methodology for quantifying DER utilization, deliverability, and reliability under uncertainty in load, generation, and topology. Outputs include interpretable metrics with confidence intervals that inform siting decisions and evaluate compliance with reliability thresholds across sampled operating conditions. A case study on Puerto Rico’s publicly available bulk power system model demonstrates the framework’s application using minimal input data, consistent with current interconnection practice. Across staged fossil generation retirements, the PDA identifies high-value DER sites and regions requiring additional reactive power support. Results are presented through mean dispatch signals, reliability metrics, and geospatial visualizations, demonstrating how the framework provides transparent, data-driven siting recommendations. The framework’s modular design supports incremental adoption within existing workflows, encouraging broader use of AC OPF in interconnection and planning contexts.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2022

Towards Net Zero: Modeling Approach to the Right-Sized Facilities

As the concentration of greenhouse gases (GHGs) in the atmosphere increases, the concerns about carbon emissions are growing. Several net-zero initiatives are taking place around the globe to achieve a balance between the GHGs put into the atmosphere and those taken out. While most efforts present a sectorized approach, this paper describes the importance of integrating information across different sectors for effective modeling of carbon emissions and holistic reduction opportunity analysis. Using the Idaho National Laboratory (INL) campus as a test case, this work provides a web-based tool for INL stakeholders to use when engaging in strategic planning to achieve carbon emissions reduction. This net-zero engineering support tool (NEST) uses historical data as foundational information for applying the modeling framework. Prediction of CO 2 emissions throughout project completion integrates various approaches and schedules aimed at energy conservation, fleet decarbonization, and other GHG reduction activities. Using NEST, stakeholders can visualize carbon emissions, electricity consumption, and costs for decision making when planning the pathway for reaching carbon net zero. The INL’s initiative to transition into an EV fleet was used to demonstrate the developed framework and the advantages of using NEST. It was shown that electrifying different fossil-fueled campus vehicles before 2030 with aggressive replacement schedules require high annual capital expenditure (CAPEX), which may not be available. The tool allows decision makers to test different replacement schedules and prioritize those that yield CAPEX below a certain threshold while meeting target milestones. While the demonstration focused on vehicle electrification, the developed framework lays the foundation for further quantitative analysis of other GHG reduction activities.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
DOE OSTI2024

Unlocking Manufacturing Sustainability: Energy Efficiency Opportunities through the US Department of Energy’s Better Plants Program Energy Treasure Hunts (2023–2024)

The US manufacturing sector faces critical challenges: improving sustainability, reducing energy consumption, and reducing greenhouse gas emissions. Energy Treasure Hunt (ETH) training, a service provided by the US Department of Energy’s Better Plants program, offers a compelling solution. Although ETHs have traditionally focused on energy and cost savings, data indicate that ETHs can be used to identify opportunities to reduce emissions and water use and to support a sustainable and circular operation. These 3-day on-site events engage employees in a collaborative search for operational and maintenance efficiency improvement opportunities. The success of ETHs lies in a comprehensive methodology. Each phase in an ETH uses various tools and resources to empower employees to identify practical solutions. This study presents data from 13 ETHs conducted between 2023 and 2024 across diverse manufacturing subsectors in the United States and demonstrates that the events can help create a pragmatic decarbonization pathway. Through the events, a total of 234 energy and emissions reduction opportunities were identified, and the potential impact is significant. Implementing the recommendations could translate to annual savings of 497,299 MMBtu of energy, 64,374 kgal of water, and 4.85 million tCO 2 e of emissions. The fiscal savings from the proposed recommendations translate into nearly $\$$5 million annually. This study identifies the opportunities by energy system type and by the specific actions recommended, while also analyzing the identified opportunities, presenting the most established sustainability recommendations. Case studies from participating partners are presented to further demonstrate that ETHs provide a practical and impactful approach to reducing energy consumption, emissions, and operating costs and promote a more sustainable future for the industrial sector.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
DOE OSTI2026

Heavy-Duty Nonroad Material Handler Electrification Part 2: Energy Efficiency and Performance Evaluation

Decarbonization efforts achieved through electrification in nonroad mobile machinery can realize a reduction in fuel consumption of more than 20%, thanks to concepts familiar to light-duty passenger vehicles. This case study compares the results of a hybrid-electric material handler to its conventional counterpart, utilizing machine-specific drive cycles presented in part one of this paper series. The hybrid prototype features an extended-range electric vehicle (EREV) powertrain that demonstrated substantial energy efficiency improvements. Specifically, there was a reduction in equivalent fuel consumption of 75% when operating in electric-only mode, and 33% when maintaining the battery by charging with an on-board generator. Together, the efficiency improvements can be extrapolated over a low-intensity, 8-h shift characterized by significant idle time and highly dynamic engine load for a 47% reduction in net energy consumption. Key technologies that led to this improvement included engine downsizing and decoupling, regenerative braking, and an electrohydraulic pump unit with advanced controls. Finally, his study explains details of the powertrain architecture and subsystems that were implemented on a demonstration vehicle, control strategies used to meet project goals, and an analysis of energy consumption from testing on a closed course. Also included in this study is a discourse on comparison metrics that can be used for quantifying the energy consumption differences between hybrid-electric and conventional diesel powertrains in nonroad mobile machinery.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗