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At least 703 records · Page 39

A Modeling and Verification Study of Summer Precipitation Systems Using NASA Surface Initialization Datasets

One of the most challenging weather forecast problems in the southeastern U.S. is daily summertime pulse-type convection. During the summer, atmospheric flow and forcing are generally weak in this region; thus, convection typically initiates in response to local forcing along sea/lake breezes, and other discontinuities often related to horizontal gradients in surface heating rates. Numerical simulations of pulse convection usually have low skill, even in local predictions at high resolution, due to the inherent chaotic nature of these precipitation systems. Forecast errors can arise from assumptions within parameterization schemes, model resolution limitations, and uncertainties in both the initial state of the atmosphere and land surface variables such as soil moisture and temperature. For this study, it is hypothesized that high-resolution, consistent representations of surface properties such as soil moisture, soil temperature, and sea surface temperature (SST) are necessary to better simulate the interactions between the surface and atmosphere, and ultimately improve predictions of summertime pulse convection. This paper describes a sensitivity experiment using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model. Interpolated land and ocean surface fields from a large-scale model are replaced with high-resolution datasets provided by unique NASA assets in an experimental simulation: the Land Information System (LIS) and Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) SSTs. The LIS is run in an offline mode for several years at the same grid resolution as the WRF model to provide compatible land surface initial conditions in an equilibrium state. The MODIS SSTs provide detailed analyses of SSTs over the oceans and large lakes compared to current operational products. The WRF model runs initialized with the LIS+MODIS datasets result in a reduction in the overprediction of rainfall areas; however, the skill is almost equally as low in both experiments using traditional verification methodologies. Output from object-based verification within NCAR s Meteorological Evaluation Tools reveals that the WRF runs initialized with LIS+MODIS data consistently generated precipitation objects that better matched observed precipitation objects, especially at higher precipitation intensities. The LIS+MODIS runs produced on average a 4% increase in matched precipitation areas and a simultaneous 4% decrease in unmatched areas during three months of daily simulations.

Jonathan L. Case↗

Parallelization of the Physical-Space Statistical Analysis System (PSAS)

Atmospheric data assimilation is a method of combining observations with model forecasts to produce a more accurate description of the atmosphere than the observations or forecast alone can provide. Data assimilation plays an increasingly important role in the study of climate and atmospheric chemistry. The NASA Data Assimilation Office (DAO) has developed the Goddard Earth Observing System Data Assimilation System (GEOS DAS) to create assimilated datasets. The core computational components of the GEOS DAS include the GEOS General Circulation Model (GCM) and the Physical-space Statistical Analysis System (PSAS). The need for timely validation of scientific enhancements to the data assimilation system poses computational demands that are best met by distributed parallel software. PSAS is implemented in Fortran 90 using object-based design principles. The analysis portions of the code solve two equations. The first of these is the "innovation" equation, which is solved on the unstructured observation grid using a preconditioned conjugate gradient (CG) method. The "analysis" equation is a transformation from the observation grid back to a structured grid, and is solved by a direct matrix-vector multiplication. Use of a factored-operator formulation reduces the computational complexity of both the CG solver and the matrix-vector multiplication, rendering the matrix-vector multiplications as a successive product of operators on a vector. Sparsity is introduced to these operators by partitioning the observations using an icosahedral decomposition scheme. PSAS builds a large (approx. 128MB) run-time database of parameters used in the calculation of these operators. Implementing a message passing parallel computing paradigm into an existing yet developing computational system as complex as PSAS is nontrivial. One of the technical challenges is balancing the requirements for computational reproducibility with the need for high performance. The problem of computational reproducibility is well known in the parallel computing community. It is a requirement that the parallel code perform calculations in a fashion that will yield identical results on different configurations of processing elements on the same platform. In some cases this problem can be solved by sacrificing performance. Meeting this requirement and still achieving high performance is very difficult. Topics to be discussed include: current PSAS design and parallelization strategy; reproducibility issues; load balance vs. database memory demands, possible solutions to these problems.

Larson, J. W.↗

Analysis of Ultra High Resolution Sea Surface Temperature Level 4 Datasets

Sea surface temperature (SST) studies are often focused on improving accuracy, or understanding and quantifying uncertainties in the measurement, as SST is a leading indicator of climate change and represents the longest time series of any ocean variable observed from space. Over the past several decades SST has been studied with the use of satellite data. This allows a larger area to be studied with much more frequent measurements being taken than direct measurements collected aboard ship or buoys. The Group for High Resolution Sea Surface Temperature (GHRSST) is an international project that distributes satellite derived sea surface temperatures (SST) data from multiple platforms and sensors. The goal of the project is to distribute these SSTs for operational uses such as ocean model assimilation and decision support applications, as well as support fundamental SST research and climate studies. Examples of near real time applications include hurricane and fisheries studies and numerical weather forecasting. The JPL group has produced a new 1 km daily global Level 4 SST product, the Multiscale Ultrahigh Resolution (MUR), that blends SST data from 3 distinct NASA radiometers: the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS), the Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR), and the Advanced Microwave Scanning Radiometer ? Earth Observing System(AMSRE). This new product requires further validation and accuracy assessment, especially in coastal regions.We examined the accuracy of the new MUR SST product by comparing the high resolution version and a lower resolution version that has been smoothed to 19 km (but still gridded to 1 km). Both versions were compared to the same data set of in situ buoy temperature measurements with a focus on study regions of the oceans surrounding North and Central America as well as two smaller regions around the Gulf Stream and California coast. Ocean fronts exhibit high temperature gradients (Roden, 1976), and thus satellite data of SST can be used in the detection of these fronts. In this case, accuracy is less of a concern because the primary focus is on the spatial derivative of SST. We calculated the gradients for both versions of the MUR data set and did statistical comparisons focusing on the same regions.

sea surface temperature SST)↗

Updates of MERRA-2 Data and Services at NASA GES DISC

Over40 years of NASA climate reanalysis datasets from the Modern-Era Retrospective analysis for Research and Applications, Version 2 (MERRA-2) are available at the NASA Goddard Earth Sciences Data and Information Services Center (GES DISC). In addition to being used in traditional weather and climate research, MERRA-2 is also widely used in application studies of, e.g., wind and solar energy, air quality and health, food and drought, and heat waves. Two new MERRA-2 datasets were recently added at the GES DISC: (1) climate statistics derived fromMERRA-2 daily data to assist in the analysis of extreme temperature and precipitation events and of large-scale meteorological patterns from 1980 to the present and (2) gridded satellite and conventional observations processed in the MERRA-2 system, along with key statistics derived from the data assimilation, to help better understand how the quality of observations directly affect there analysis data. The GES DISC focuses its efforts on continually improving existing data services and to develop new data tools to satisfy various user communities. The newly added features include the following: Time series service: This is a new service for MERRA-2 data, which enables the easy and fast access of long-term hourly or daily time series at a location for popular parameters. The data is saved in a single le in Ascii format with a user- friendly structure. New analytic functions in the subsetter interface: Options for downloading daily minimum and maximum values have been added into the subsetter interface, in addition to the existing daily mean option, for all MERRA-2 and MERRA sub-daily products. Data format conversion to GeoTIFF has been implemented. New variables in Giovanni: Most monthly variables have been integrated into Giovanni, GESDISC’s online visualization and analysis tool. Due to the large data volume, hourly variables were selected based on user requests. More online information: New MERRA-2 documentation has been added: Data How-To, Data in Action, and FAQ. This presentation overviews two new MERRA-2 datasets and illustrates the new features of data services through a number of case studies. MERRA-2 data and services can be found at: https://disc.gsfc.gov/datasets?

Data management↗

Monte Carlo simulation of TrueBeam flattening-filter-free beams using Varian phase-space files: Comparison with experimental data

Purpose: Phase-space files for Monte Carlo simulation of the Varian TrueBeam beams have been made available by Varian. The aim of this study is to evaluate the accuracy of the distributed phase-space files for flattening filter free (FFF) beams, against experimental measurements from ten TrueBeam Linacs. Methods: The phase-space files have been used as input in PRIMO, a recently released Monte Carlo program based on thePENELOPE code. Simulations of 6 and 10 MV FFF were computed in a virtual water phantom for field sizes 3 × 3, 6 × 6, and 10 × 10 cm{sup 2} using 1 × 1 × 1 mm{sup 3} voxels and for 20 × 20 and 40 × 40 cm{sup 2} with 2 × 2 × 2 mm{sup 3} voxels. The particles contained in the initial phase-space files were transported downstream to a plane just above the phantom surface, where a subsequent phase-space file was tallied. Particles were transported downstream this second phase-space file to the water phantom. Experimental data consisted of depth doses and profiles at five different depths acquired at SSD = 100 cm (seven datasets) and SSD = 90 cm (three datasets). Simulations and experimental data were compared in terms of dose difference. Gamma analysis was also performed using 1%, 1 mm and 2%, 2 mm criteria of dose-difference and distance-to-agreement, respectively. Additionally, the parameters characterizing the dose profiles of unflattened beams were evaluated for both measurements and simulations. Results: Analysis of depth dose curves showed that dose differences increased with increasing field size and depth; this effect might be partly motivated due to an underestimation of the primary beam energy used to compute the phase-space files. Average dose differences reached 1% for the largest field size. Lateral profiles presented dose differences well within 1% for fields up to 20 × 20 cm{sup 2}, while the discrepancy increased toward 2% in the 40 × 40 cm{sup 2} cases. Gamma analysis resulted in an agreement of 100% when a 2%, 2 mm criterion was used, with the only exception of the 40 × 40 cm{sup 2} field (∼95% agreement). With the more stringent criteria of 1%, 1 mm, the agreement reduced to almost 95% for field sizes up to 10 × 10 cm{sup 2}, worse for larger fields. Unflatness and slope FFF-specific parameters are in line with the possible energy underestimation of the simulated results relative to experimental data. Conclusions: The agreement between Monte Carlo simulations and experimental data proved that the evaluated Varian phase-space files for FFF beams from TrueBeam can be used as radiation sources for accurate Monte Carlo dose estimation, especially for field sizes up to 10 × 10 cm{sup 2}, that is the range of field sizes mostly used in combination to the FFF, high dose rate beams.

61 RADIATION PROTECTION AND DOSIMETRY↗

Cosmology with the largest galaxy cluster surveys: going beyond Fisher matrix forecasts

We make the first detailed MCMC likelihood study of cosmological constraints that are expected from some of the largest, ongoing and proposed, cluster surveys in different wave-bands and compare the estimates to the prevalent Fisher matrix forecasts. Mock catalogs of cluster counts expected from the surveys — eROSITA, WFXT, RCS2, DES and Planck, along with a mock dataset of follow-up mass calibrations are analyzed for this purpose. A fair agreement between MCMC and Fisher results is found only in the case of minimal models. However, for many cases, the marginalized constraints obtained from Fisher and MCMC methods can differ by factors of 30-100%. The discrepancy can be alarmingly large for a time dependent dark energy equation of state, w(a); the Fisher methods are seen to under-estimate the constraints by as much as a factor of 4-5. Typically, Fisher estimates become more and more inappropriate as we move away from ΛCDM, to a constant-w dark energy to varying-w dark energy cosmologies. Fisher analysis, also, predicts incorrect parameter degeneracies. There are noticeable offsets in the likelihood contours obtained from Fisher methods that is caused due to an asymmetry in the posterior likelihood distribution as seen through a MCMC analysis. From the point of mass-calibration uncertainties, a high value of unknown scatter about the mean mass-observable relation, and its redshift dependence, is seen to have large degeneracies with the cosmological parameters σ{sub 8} and w(a) and can degrade the cosmological constraints considerably. We find that the addition of mass-calibrated cluster datasets can improve dark energy and σ{sub 8} constraints by factors of 2-3 from what can be obtained from CMB+SNe+BAO only . Finally, we show that a joint analysis of datasets of two (or more) different cluster surveys would significantly tighten cosmological constraints from using clusters only. Since, details of future cluster surveys are still being planned, we emphasize that optimal survey design must be done using MCMC analysis rather than Fisher forecasting.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Recent Developments to the Porous Microstructure Analysis (PuMA) Software

Introduction The Porous Microstructure Analysis (PuMA) software is an open source framework for image-based simulation, primarily used to determine effective properties based on material microstructure. PuMA was originally developed for the study of NASA thermal protection materials; however, many of the solvers in PuMA have applicability to a broad range of materials science applications. PuMA version 3.2 computes material surface area, pore diameters, effective thermal conductivity, continuum and rarefied tortuosity, and permeability. For anisotropic materials, PuMA can estimate material orientation and compute anisotropic thermal conductivity and elasticity. In this talk, a brief overview of the PuMA software and underlying methods will be presented, as well as some recent and ongoing developments, including the use of immersed boundary methods for image-based simulation and the development of a new weave segmentation tool, called TomoSAM. Cut-Cell method for heat and mass transfer For simulations on complex microstructures, traditional unstructured meshing techniques often prove to be difficult and time-intensive. Voxel-based solvers, which represent the surface as a staircase structure, are relatively simple to implement but can lose accuracy when feature resolution is poor. In this work, we present a novel 3D cut-cell method for solving the variable coefficient Poisson equation on complex microstructures, suitable for the determination of effective thermal conductivity or tortuosity of a material. The method uses a Marching Cubes/Marching Squares surface reconstruction to create cut-cells and determine geometric quantities. A flux-correction method is extended to 3D, with least squares gradient reconstruction, to solve for the boundary fluxes in the cut-cells. Verification cases show the solver achieves globally 2nd order accuracy on complex microstructures. TomoSAM TomoSAM, a module of the PuMA software, has been developed as a plugin for 3D Slicer, a software platform used for 3D image processing and visualization. It utilizes the Segment Anything Model (SAM), a deep learning model capable of identifying objects and generating image masks based on minimal user input. This feature enables efficient segmentation of complex 3D datasets, particularly of woven materials, from tomography or similar imaging methods, reducing the need for manual segmentation.

Tomography↗

Recent Developments to the Porous Microstructure Analysis (PuMA) Software

The Porous Microstructure Analysis (PuMA) software is an open source framework for image-based simulation, primarily used to determine effective properties based on material microstructure. PuMA was originally developed for the study of NASA thermal protection materials; however, many of the solvers in PuMA have applicability to a broad range of materials science applications. PuMA version 3.2 computes material surface area, pore diameters, effective thermal conductivity, continuum and rarefied tortuosity, and permeability. For anisotropic materials, PuMA can estimate material orientation and compute anisotropic thermal conductivity and elasticity. In this talk, a brief overview of the PuMA software and underlying methods will be presented, as well as some recent and ongoing developments, including the use of immersed boundary methods for image-based simulation and the development of a new weave segmentation tool, called TomoSAM. Cut-Cell method for heat and mass transfer For simulations on complex microstructures, traditional unstructured meshing techniques often prove to be difficult and time-intensive. Voxel-based solvers, which represent the surface as a staircase structure, are relatively simple to implement but can lose accuracy when feature resolution is poor. In this work, we present a novel 3D cut-cell method for solving the variable coefficient Poisson equation on complex microstructures, suitable for the determination of effective thermal conductivity or tortuosity of a material. The method uses a Marching Cubes/Marching Squares surface reconstruction to create cut-cells and determine geometric quantities. A flux-correction method is extended to 3D, with least squares gradient reconstruction, to solve for the boundary fluxes in the cut-cells. Verification cases show the solver achieves globally 2nd order accuracy on complex microstructures. TomoSAM TomoSAM, a module of the PuMA software, has been developed as a plugin for 3D Slicer, a software platform used for 3D image processing and visualization. It utilizes the Segment Anything Model (SAM), a deep learning model capable of identifying objects and generating image masks based on minimal user input. This feature enables efficient segmentation of complex 3D datasets, particularly of woven materials, from tomography or similar imaging methods, reducing the need for manual segmentation.

Tomography↗

The Impact of Microphysics and Planetary Boundary Layer Physics on Model Simulation of U.S. Deep South Summer Convection

Inspection of output from various configurations of high-resolution, explicit convection forecast models such as the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model indicates significant sensitivity to the choices of model physics pararneterizations employed. Some of the largest apparent sensitivities are related to the specifications of the cloud microphysics and planetary boundary layer physics packages. In addition, these sensitivities appear to be especially pronounced for the weakly-sheared, multicell modes of deep convection characteristic of the Deep South of the United States during the boreal summer. Possible ocean-land sensitivities also argue for further examination of the impacts of using unique ocean-land surface initialization datasets provided by the NASA Short-term Prediction Research and Transition (SPoRn Center to select NOAAlNWS weather forecast offices. To obtain better quantitative understanding of these sensitivities and also to determine the utility of the ocean-land initialization data, we have executed matrices of regional WRF forecasts for selected convective events near Mobile, AL (MOB), and Houston, TX (HGX). The matrices consist of identically initialized WRF 24-h forecasts using any of eight microphysics choices and any of three planetary boWldary layer choices. The resulting 24 simulations performed for each event within either the MOB or HGX regions are then compared to identify the sensitivities of various convective storm metrics to the physics choices. Particular emphasis is placed on sensitivities of precipitation timing, intensity, and coverage, as well as amount and coverage oflightuing activity diagnosed from storm kinematics and graupel in the mixed phase layer. The results confirm impressions gleaned from study of the behavior of variously configured WRF runs contained in the ensembles produced each spring at the Center for the Analysis and Prediction of Storms, but with the benefit of more straightforward control of the physics package choices. The design of the experiments thus allows for more direct interpretation of the sensitivities to each possible physics combination. The results should assist forecasters in their efforts to anticipate and correct for possible biases in simulated WRF convection patterns, and help the modeling community refine their model parameterizations.

McCaul, Eugene W., Jr.↗

The Impacts of Microphysics and Planetary Boundary Layer Physics on Model Simulations of U. S. Deep South Summer Convection

Inspection of output from various configurations of high-resolution, explicit convection forecast models such as the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model indicates significant sensitivity to the choices of model physics parameterizations employed. Some of the largest apparent sensitivities are related to the specifications of the cloud microphysics and planetary boundary layer physics packages. In addition, these sensitivities appear to be especially pronounced for the weakly-sheared, multicell modes of deep convection characteristic of the Deep South of the United States during the boreal summer. Possible ocean-land sensitivities also argue for further examination of the impacts of using unique ocean-land surface initialization datasets provided by the NASA Short-term Prediction Research and Transition (SPoRT Center to select NOAA/NWS weather forecast offices. To obtain better quantitative understanding of these sensitivities and also to determine the utility of the ocean-land initialization data, we have executed matrices of regional WRF forecasts for selected convective events near Mobile, AL (MOB), and Houston, TX (HGX). The matrices consist of identically initialized WRF 24-h forecasts using any of eight microphysics choices and any of three planetary boundary layer choices. The resulting 24 simulations performed for each event within either the MOB or HGX regions are then compared to identify the sensitivities of various convective storm metrics to the physics choices. Particular emphasis is placed on sensitivities of precipitation timing, intensity, and coverage, as well as amount and coverage of lightning activity diagnosed from storm kinematics and graupel in the mixed phase layer. The results confirm impressions gleaned from study of the behavior of variously configured WRF runs contained in the ensembles produced each spring at the Center for the Analysis and Prediction of Storms, but with the benefit of more straightforward control of the physics package choices. The design of the experiments thus allows for more direct interpretation of the sensitivities to each possible physics combination. The results should assist forecasters in their efforts to anticipate and correct for possible biases in simulated WRF convection patterns, and help the modeling community refine their model parameterizations.

McCaul, E. W., Jr.↗

Data-model files associated with the manuscript "Modeling the Effects of Wetland Restoration on Coastal Hydrology: A Case Study of Elkhorn Slough Watershed, California"

This package contains the data, simulation setups, notebooks and figures used in “Modeling the Effects of Wetland Restoration on Coastal Hydrology: A Case Study of Elkhorn Slough Watershed, California” (Xu et al., 2025). In this study, we selected Elkhorn Slough, a tidal estuary, in California, to investigate the impact of wetland restoration and sea level rise on coastal hydrology using the process-based coastal hydrologic model, Advanced Terrestrial Simulator (ATS), informed by site-specific data. We designed a novel modeling workflow for incorporating wetland restoration features into land cover and soil properties for the model parameterization. The validation results demonstrate a strong agreement between modeled and observed data. We studied the characteristics of coastal watershed hydrology, then focused on the surface water dynamics at two wetland sites within Elkhorn Slough, a reference site and a restored site. Our simulation results indicate that the restored site successfully maintains surface elevation, resulting in reduced surface inundation. We also examined the impact of wetland restoration under expected sea level rise over the next few decades. The low-lying Yampah Marsh, the reference site, is likely to be inundated due to future sea level rise when highest tides arrive; while a higher percentage of Hester Marsh, the restored site, would retain marsh vegetation in coming decades, regardless of tidal conditions. Our study provides important information for examining the outcome of restoration practices that include surface elevation in tidal wetlands under climate changes.Several files can be found from this data package.1. README.md: This file describes the title, journal, co-authors, abstract, repository structure and model version.2. Simulation_Setups.zip: The file contains the model configuration files (XML format) for ATS. 3. Notebooks.zip: The file contains the Jupyter notebooks for generating the pre- and post-restoration meshes and the meshes of future scenarios. 4. Figures.zip: The file contains the figures used in the manuscript.5. Data.zip: The file contains the data used to drive the model simulations, including watershed and wetlands boundaries, mesh files and references to additional datasets (e.g., meteorological forcing, tidal dataset, DEMs, land cover, soil properties). Also, it contains water level observations at the restored wetland.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Evaluating the potential of short-term instrument deployment to improve distributed wind resource assessment

Distributed wind projects, which are connected at the distribution level of an electricity system or in off-grid applications to serve specific or local energy needs, often rely solely on wind resource models to establish wind speed and energy generation expectations. Historically, anemometer loan programs have provided an affordable avenue for more accurate onsite wind resource assessment, and the lowering cost of lidar systems has shown similar advantages for more recent assessments. While a full 12 months of onsite wind measurement is the standard for correcting model-based long-term wind speed estimates for utility-scale wind farms, the time and capital investment involved in gathering onsite measurements must be reconciled with the energy needs and funding opportunities that drive expedient deployment of distributed wind projects. Much literature exists to quantify the performance of correcting long-term wind speed estimates with 1 or more years of observational data, but few studies explore the impacts of correcting with months-long observational periods. This study aims to answer the question of how short you can go in terms of the observational time period needed to make impactful improvements to model-based long-term wind speed estimates. Three algorithms, multivariable linear regression, adaptive regression splines, and regression trees, are evaluated for their skill at correcting long-term wind resource estimates from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts Reanalysis version 5 (ERA5) using months-long periods of observational data from 66 locations across the US. On average, correction with even 1 month of observations provides significant improvement over the baseline ERA5 wind speed estimates and produces median bias magnitudes and relative errors within 0.22 m s −1 and 4 percentage points of the median bias magnitudes and relative errors achieved using the standard 12 months of data for correction. However, in cases when the shortest observational periods (1 to 2 months) used for correction are not well correlated with the overlapping ERA5 reference, the resultant long-term wind speed errors are worse than those produced using ERA5 without correction. Summer months, which are characterized by weaker relative wind speeds and standard deviations for most of the evaluation sites, tend to produce the worst results for long-term correction using months-long observations. The three tested algorithms perform similarly for long-term wind speed bias; however, regression trees perform notably worse than multivariable linear regression and adaptive regression splines in terms of correlation when using 6 months or less of observational data for correction. Translating the analysis to wind energy, median relative errors in the capacity factor are on average within 10 % using 1 month of training. If the observation period used for correction is not well correlated with the reference data, however, misrepresentation of the observed capacity factor can be substantial. The risk associated with poor correlation between the observed and reference datasets decreases with increasing training period length. In the worst-correlation scenarios, the median capacity factor relative errors from using 1, 3, and 6 months are within 47 %, 26 %, and 16 %, respectively.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

Reservoir Sediment Management and Monitoring Database

Overview This dataset compiles dam sediment management and monitoring information from surveys, case studies, and journal articles. Additionally, features described by the National Inventory of Dams (i.e., presence of sluice gates) are included to indicate known infrastructure features that may address sediment releases. The location and description of records from downstream monitoring gages are catalogued in order to help with tracking conditions over time (e.g., before and after management actions, as operations change, etc.). The data help address national scale understanding of challenges and solutions related to the accumulation of sediment behind a dam as well as downstream passage. Sediment trapping causes problems as it reduces storage capacity, disrupts dam and reservoir function, impedes access for recreation, alters water quality/habitat conditions, and contributes to riverbank and coastal erosion within the reservoir. Data compilation from a variety of sources is a first step towards assessing system-wide efficacy of management solutions. This dataset was developed under the Water Power Technologies Office funded effort which began as a Seedling on Reservoir Sedimentation Data, and was supported by the Reservoir Sedimentation Modeling Framework and Data Analysis project. These projects have addressed challenges in describing sediment transport, trapping, and management at dams throughout the US. Methodology An outer join on dams/reservoirs with surveys and survey reports (documented in the RESSED database, USBR or USACE databases, project websites, etc.) with the National Inventory of Dams, based on the NIDID to determine dams with documented management and/or sluice gates. Additional dams with documented management activity were identified through review of technical articles from the past 25 years in Journal of Hydrology, Journal of Water Resources Planning and Management, Geomorphology, Journal of Hydraulic Engineering, Water, Journal of Cleaner Production, International Journal of Sediment Research, Nature Scientific Reports, Earth Surface Processes and Landforms, and Environmental Science and Pollution Research. Individual records were created for each survey or management activity documented. To evaluate downstream sediment monitoring records, the nhdPlusTools and dataRetrieval packages in R were used to find gages within 10km of each dam in the management database. Length of record and location of matched gages were retrieved for those parameters relevant to sediment concentration or total sediment discharge.

Hansen, Carly [ORNL] (ORCID:0000000193280838)↗

Use of Collocated KWAJEX Satellite, Aircraft, and Ground Measurements for Understanding Ambiguities in TRMM Radiometer Rain Profile Algorithm

Coordinated ground, aircraft, and satellite observations are analyzed from the 1999 TRMM Kwajalein Atoll field experiment (KWAJEX) to better understand the relationships between cloud microphysical processes and microwave radiation intensities in the context of physical evaluation of the Level 2 TRMM radiometer rain profile algorithm and uncertainties with its assumed microphysics-radiation relationships. This talk focuses on the results of a multi-dataset analysis based on measurements from KWAJEX surface, air, and satellite platforms to test the hypothesis that uncertainties in the passive microwave radiometer algorithm (TMI 2a12 in the nomenclature of TRMM) are systematically coupled and correlated with the magnitudes of deviation of the assumed 3-dimensional microphysical properties from observed microphysical properties. Re-stated, this study focuses on identifying the weaknesses in the operational TRMM 2a12 radiometer algorithm based on observed microphysics and radiation data in terms of over-simplifications used in its theoretical microphysical underpinnings. The analysis makes use of a common transform coordinate system derived from the measuring capabilities of the aircraft radiometer used to survey the experimental study area, i.e., the 4-channel AMPR radiometer flown on the NASA DC-8 aircraft. Normalized emission and scattering indices derived from radiometer brightness temperatures at the four measuring frequencies enable a 2-dimensional coordinate system that facilities compositing of Kwajalein S-band ground radar reflectivities, ARMAR Ku-band aircraft radar reflectivities, TMI spacecraft radiometer brightness temperatures, PR Ku-band spacecraft radar reflectivities, bulk microphysical parameters derived from the aircraft-mounted cloud microphysics laser probes (including liquid/ice water contents, effective liquid/ice hydrometeor radii, and effective liquid/ice hydrometeor variances), and rainrates derived from any of the individual ground, aircraft, or satellite algorithms applied to the radar or radiometer measurements, or their combination. The results support the study's underlying hypothesis, particularly in context of ice phase processes, in that the cloud regions where the 2a12 algorithm's microphysical database most misrepresents the microphysical conditions as determined by the laser probes, are where retrieved surface rainrates are most erroneous relative to other reference rainrates as determined by ground and aircraft radar. In reaching these conclusions, TMI and PR brightness temperatures and reflectivities have been synthesized from the aircraft AMPR and ARMAR measurements with the analysis conducted in a composite framework to eliminate measurement noise associated with the case study approach and single element volumes obfuscated by heterogeneous beam filling effects. In diagnosing the performance of the 2a12 algorithm, weaknesses have been found in the cloud-radiation database used to provide microphysical guidance to the algorithm for upper cloud ice microphysics. It is also necessary to adjust a fractional convective rainfall factor within the algorithm somewhat arbitrarily to achieve satisfactory algorithm accuracy.

Smith, Eric A.↗

The IAEA coordinated research programme on HTGR uncertainty analysis: Phase I status and Ex. I-1 prismatic reference results

The quantification of uncertainties in design and safety analysis of reactors is today not only broadly accepted, but in many cases became the preferred way to replace traditional conservative analysis for safety and licensing analysis. The use of a more fundamental methodology is also consistent with the reliable high fidelity physics models and robust, efficient, and accurate codes available today. To facilitate uncertainty analysis applications a comprehensive approach and methodology must be developed and applied, in contrast to the historical approach where sensitivity analysis were performed and uncertainties then determined by a simplified statistical combination of a few important input parameters. New methodologies are currently under development in the OECD/NEA Light Water Reactor (LWR) Uncertainty Analysis in Best-Estimate Modelling (UAM) benchmark activity. High Temperature Gas-cooled Reactor (HTGR) designs require specific treatment of the double heterogeneous fuel design and large graphite quantities at high temperatures. The IAEA has therefore launched a Coordinated Research Project (CRP) on HTGR Uncertainty Analysis in Modelling (UAM) in 2013 to study uncertainty propagation specifically in the HTGR analysis chain. Two benchmark problems are defined, with the prismatic design represented by the General Atomics (GA) MHTGR-350 and a 250 MW modular pebble bed design similar to the Chinese HTR-PM. Work has started on the first phase and the current CRP status is reported in the paper. A comparison of the Serpent and SCALE/KENO-VI reference Monte Carlo results for Ex. I-1 of the MHTGR-350 design is also included. It was observed that the SCALE/KENO-VI Continuous Energy (CE) k ∞ values were 395 pcm (Ex. I-1a) to 803 pcm (Ex. I-1b) higher than the respective Serpent lattice calculations, and that within the set of the SCALE results, the KENO-VI 238 Multi-Group (MG) k ∞ values were up to 800 pcm lower than the KENO-VI CE values. The use of the latest ENDF-B-VII.1 cross section library in Serpent lead to ~180 pcm lower k ∞ values compared to the older ENDF-B-VII.0 dataset, caused by the modified graphite neutron capture cross section. Furthermore, the fourth beta release of SCALE 6.2 likewise produced lower CE k∞ values when compared to SCALE 6.1, and the improved performance of the new 252-group library available in SCALE 6.2 is especially noteworthy. A SCALE/TSUNAMI uncertainty analysis of the Hot Full Power variant for Ex. I-1a furthermore concluded that the 238 U(n,γ) (capture) and 235 U(View the MathML source) cross-section covariance matrices contributed the most to the total k ∞ uncertainty of 0.58%.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

High-Resolution Specification of the Land and Ocean Surface for Improving Regional Mesoscale Model Predictions

The exchange of energy and moisture between the Earth's surface and the atmospheric boundary layer plays a critical role in many meteorological processes. High-resolution, accurate representations of surface properties such as sea-surface temperature (SST), soil temperature and moisture content, ground fluxes, and vegetation are necessary to better understand the Earth-atmosphere interactions and improve numerical predictions of sensible weather. The NASA Short-term Prediction Research and Transition (SPoRT) Center has been conducting separate studies to examine the impacts of high-resolution land-surface initialization data from the Goddard Space Flight Center Land Information System (LIS) on subsequent WRF forecasts, as well as the influence of initializing WRF with SST composites derived from the MODIS instrument. This current project addresses the combined impacts of using high-resolution lower boundary data over both land (LIS data) and water (MODIS SSTs) on the subsequent daily WRF forecasts over Florida during May 2004. For this experiment, the WRF model is configured to run on a nested domain with 9- km and 3-kin grid spacing, centered on the Florida peninsula and adjacent coastal waters of the Gulf of Mexico and Atlantic Ocean. A control configuration of WRF is established to take all initial condition data from the NCEP Eta model. Meanwhile, two WRF experimental runs are configured to use high-resolution initialization data from (1) LIS land-surface data only, and (2) a combination of LIS data and high-resolution MODIS SST composites. The experiment involves running 24-hour simulations of the control WRF configuration, the MS-initialized WRF, and the LIS+MODIS-initialized WRF daily for the entire month of May 2004. All atmospheric data for initial and boundary conditions for the Control, LIS, and LIS+MODIS runs come from the NCEP Eta model on a 40-km grid. Verification statistics are generated at land surface observation sites and buoys, and the impacts of the high-resolution lower boundary data on the development and evolution of mesoscale circulations such as sea and land breezes are examined, This paper will present the results of these WRF modeling experiments using LIS and MODIS lower boundary datasets over the Florida peninsula during May 2004.

Case, Jonathan L.↗

Motion as perturbation. II. Development of the method for dosimetric analysis of motion effects with fixed-gantry IMRT

Purpose: In this work, the feasibility of implementing a motion-perturbation approach to accurately estimate volumetric dose in the presence of organ motion—previously demonstrated for VMAT-–is studied for static gantry IMRT. The method's accuracy is improved for the voxels that have very low planned dose but acquire appreciable dose due to motion. The study describes the modified algorithm and its experimental validation and provides an example of a clinical application. Methods: A contoured region-of-interest is propagated according to the predefined motion kernel throughout time-resolved 4D phantom dose grids. This timed series of 3D dose grids is produced by the measurement-guided dose reconstruction algorithm, based on an irradiation of a staticARCCHECK (AC) helical dosimeter array (Sun Nuclear Corp., Melbourne, FL). Each moving voxel collects dose over the dynamic simulation. The difference in dose-to-moving voxel vs dose-to-static voxel in-phantom forms the basis of a motion perturbation correction that is applied to the corresponding voxel in the patient dataset. A new method to synchronize the accelerator and dosimeter clocks, applicable to fixed-gantry IMRT, was developed. Refinements to the algorithm account for the excursion of low dose voxels into high dose regions, causing appreciable dose increase due to motion (LDVE correction). For experimental validation, four plans using TG-119 structure sets and objectives were produced using segmented IMRT direct machine parameters optimization in Pinnacle treatment planning system (v. 9.6, Philips Radiation Oncology Systems, Fitchburg, WI). All beams were delivered with the gantry angle of 0°. Each beam was delivered three times: (1) to the static AC centered on the room lasers; (2) to a static phantom containing a MAPCHECK2 (MC2) planar diode array dosimeter (Sun Nuclear); and (3) to the moving MC2 phantom. The motion trajectory was an ellipse in the IEC XY plane, with 3 and 1.5 cm axes. The period was 5 s, with the resulting average motion speed of 1.45 cm/s. The motion-perturbed high resolution (2 mm voxel) volumetric dose grids on the MC2 phantom were generated for each beam. From each grid, a coronal dose plane at the detector level was extracted and compared to the corresponding moving MC2 measurement, using gamma analysis with both global (G) and local (L) dose-error normalization. Results: Using the TG-119 criteria of (3%G/3 mm), per beam average gamma analysis passing rates exceeded 95% in all cases. No individual beam had a passing rate below 91%. LDVE correction eliminated systematic disagreement patterns at the beams’ aperture edges. In a representative example, application of LDVE correction improved (2%L/2 mm) gamma analysis passing rate for an IMRT beam from 74% to 98%. Conclusions: The effect of motion on the moving region-of-interest IMRT dose can be estimated with a standard, static phantom QA measurement, provided the motion characteristics are independently known from 4D CT or otherwise. The motion-perturbed absolute dose estimates were validated by the direct planar diode array measurements, and were found to reliably agree with them in a homogeneous phantom.

62 RADIOLOGY AND NUCLEAR MEDICINE↗

Optimization of an on-board imaging system for extremely rapid radiation therapy

Purpose: Next-generation extremely rapid radiation therapy systems could mitigate the need for motion management, improve patient comfort during the treatment, and increase patient throughput for cost effectiveness. Such systems require an on-board imaging system that is competitively priced, fast, and of sufficiently high quality to allow good registration between the image taken on the day of treatment and the image taken the day of treatment planning. In this study, three different detectors for a custom on-board CT system were investigated to select the best design for integration with an extremely rapid radiation therapy system. Methods: Three different CT detectors are proposed: low-resolution (all 4 × 4 mm pixels), medium-resolution (a combination of 4 × 4 mm pixels and 2 × 2 mm pixels), and high-resolution (all 1 × 1 mm pixels). An in-house program was used to generate projection images of a numerical anthropomorphic phantom and to reconstruct the projections into CT datasets, henceforth called “realistic” images. Scatter was calculated using a separate Monte Carlo simulation, and the model included an antiscatter grid and bowtie filter. Diagnostic-quality images of the phantom were generated to represent the patient scan at the time of treatment planning. Commercial deformable registration software was used to register the diagnostic-quality scan to images produced by the various on-board detector configurations. The deformation fields were compared against a “gold standard” deformation field generated by registering initial and deformed images of the numerical phantoms that were used to make the diagnostic and treatment-day images. Registrations of on-board imaging system data were judged by the amount their deformation fields differed from the corresponding gold standard deformation fields—the smaller the difference, the better the system. To evaluate the registrations, the pointwise distance between gold standard and realistic registration deformation fields was computed. Results: By most global metrics (e.g., mean, median, and maximum pointwise distance), the high-resolution detector had the best performance but the medium-resolution detector was comparable. For all medium- and high-resolution detector registrations, mean error between the realistic and gold standard deformation fields was less than 4 mm. By pointwise metrics (e.g., tracking a small lesion), the high- and medium-resolution detectors performed similarly. For these detectors, the smallest error between the realistic and gold standard registrations was 0.6 mm and the largest error was 3.6 mm. Conclusions: The medium-resolution CT detector was selected as the best for an extremely rapid radiation therapy system. In essentially all test cases, data from this detector produced a significantly better registration than data from the low-resolution detector and a comparable registration to data from the high-resolution detector. The medium-resolution detector provides an appropriate compromise between registration accuracy and system cost.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗