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Projections of Declining Surface-Water Availability for the Southwestern United States

16 of the CMIP5 models had all the data needed for this work for at least one simulation that was continuous from 1950 to 2040. Details of the models analyzed here are provided in Table S1. The model data analyzed here are available at http://strega.ldeo.columbia.edu:81/expert/home/.naomi/.AR5/.v2/.historical:rcp85/.mmm16/ a. Assessing the climatology of the models Despite increases in horizontal resolution of many models compared to their CMIP3 counterparts none of these models can adequately resolve the topography of the south west United States, such as the Sierra Nevada and Rocky Mountains and the associated orographic precipitation. This requires that caution be used when interpreting the results presented here. To assess the ability of the models to simulate the current hydroclimate, in Figure S1 we show the observed (from the Global Precipitation Climatology Centre gridded rain gauge data, (1)) monthly climatology of precipitation and the same for all the models and the multimodel mean for the California-Nevada, Colorado headwaters and Texas regions. The GPCC data uses rain gauges only and interpolates to regular grids of which we used the 1◦ by 1◦ one. Details of the data set can be found in (2). While the models apparently overestimate precipitation in California and Nevada the seasonal cycle with wet winters and dry summers is very well represented. It is also possible that the rain gauge observations are biased low by inadequately sampling the higher mountain regions. How ever the models might also be expected to underestimate orographic precipitation due to inadequate horizontal resolution. The 25 models are also too wet in the Colorado headwaters region but correctly represent the quite even distribution though the year. The bimodal distribution of precipitation in Texas, with peaks in May and September, and the absolute amounts, are well modeled but with the September peak too weak. The positive precipitation bias translates into a positive runoff bias for the Colorado headwaters as also shown in Figure S1. Here the observed runoff values are taken from simulations of the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) land surface-hydrology model (3) forced by observed meteorology (5) that were conducted as part of the North American Land Data Assimilation System project phase 2 ( (NLDAS-2), http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/mmb/nldas/. Runoff for California-Nevada is better simulated but there is a positive bias over Texas despite no strong precipitation bias. To check whether regional climate models better simulate P and runoff in these regions we analyzed the historical simulation with the Regional Climate Model version 3 driven by the National Centers for Environmental Prediction-Department of Energy Reanalysis 2 available from the North American Regional Climate Change Assessment Program (http://www.narccap.ucar.edu). This model configuration retained these biases in P and runoff although they were reduced in amplitude. Given these varying biases we plot P and P − E changes in actual values but apply the simplest bias correction possible to the runoff and soil moisture values and show the modeled changes in terms of percentages of the 20th Century model climatologies. A thorough assessment of the simulation of North American climate in CMIP5 models is conducted in Sheffield at al. (North American Climate in CMIP5 Experiments. Part I: Evaluation of 20th Century Continental and Regional Climatology, manuscript submit ted to J. Climate, available at http://www.climate.noaa.gov/index.jsp?pg=./cpo pa/ mapp/cmip5 publications.html). Sheffield et al. analyze the climatology of precipitation, surface air temperature, low level winds, moisture fluxes, runoff etc. and conclude that the main features of the hydrological cycle, including characteristics of the atmospheric moisture balance and its seasonality, are captured in the CMP5 models subject to biases in total precipitation amounts. We chose to use all available models instead of selecting some and rejecting others based on an assessment of model realism. This is in accord with the suggestions of Mote et al. for CMIP3 (4) but future work needs to revisit this matter for the case of the CMIP5 ensemble.

Seager, Richard↗

Coupling Carbon Oxidation and Surface Recession in Direct-Simulation Monte Carlo Code, SPARTA

Ablative thermal protection system (TPS) materials for spacecraft are composites that are often made out of carbon-based reinforcement and a polymeric matrix. They endure high-temperature oxidation and surface recession when re-entering Earth’s atmosphere. Ablation is the result of many coupled and competing thermal, mechanical, and chemical phenomena, and it is difficult to isolate the role of each on the overall degradation of the TPS. Here we develop an ablation model for material recession coupled explicitly to finite rate carbon oxidation in complex microstructures. In this work, Stochastic PArallel Rarified-gas Time-accurate Analyzer (SPARTA), a direct-simulation Monte Carlo (DSMC) code, is modified to allow oxidation-driven ablation of implicitly defined carbon surfaces. In SPARTA, implicit surfaces are generated from the grid corner point values via a marching cubes algorithm, therefore creating a new set of surface elements every time ablation is performed. The finite-rate oxidation model developed by Gopalan et. al, was adapted to tally surface reactions and other surface data on a per-grid cell basis. The ablation functionality was also adjusted so once the reactions have occurred, the number of reactions leading to CO formation can be converted to corner point reduction values; therefore, carbon removal is directly proportional to surface recession. We also develop robust algorithms which handle the evolution of the flow cells and solid material regions, including split cells (flow cell divided in two by a solid surface). Finally, we demonstrate our implicit chemistry model for 2D and 3D geometries by producing reaction statistics and detailed visualization of oxidation-induced material recession at the microscale.

V Arias↗

Zero to Integration in Eight Months, the Dawn Ground Data System Engineering Challenge

The Dawn Project has presented the Ground Data System (GDS) with technical challenges driven by cost and schedule constraints commonly associated with National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) Discovery Projects. The Dawn mission consists of a new and exciting Deep Space partnership among: the Jet Propulsion Laboratory (JPL), manages the project and is responsible for flight operation; Orbital Sciences Corporation (OSC), is the spacecraft builder and is responsible for flight system test and integration; and the University of California, at Los Angeles (UCLA), is responsible for science planning and operations. As a cost-capped mission, one of Dawn's implementation strategies is to leverage from both flight and ground heritage. OSC's ground data system is used for flight system test and integration as part of the flight heritage strategy. Mission operations, however, are to be conducted with JPL's ground system. The system engineering challenge of dealing with two heterogeneous ground systems emerged immediately. During the first technical interchange meeting between the JPL's GDS Team and OSC's Flight Software Team, August 2003, the need to integrate the ground system with the flight software was brought to the table. This need was driven by the project's commitment to enable instrument engineering model integration in a spacecraft simulator environment, for both demonstration and risk mitigation purposes, by April 2004. This paper will describe the system engineering approach that was undertaken by JPL's GDS Team in order to meet the technical challenge within a non-negotiable eight-month schedule. Key to the success was adherence to fundamental systems engineering practices: decomposition of the project request into manageable requirements; integration of multiple ground disciplines and experts into a focused team effort; definition of a structured yet flexible development process; definition of an in-process risk reduction plan; and aggregation of the intermediate products to an integrated final product. In addition, this paper will highlight the role of lessons learned from the integration experience. The lessons learned from an early GDS deployment have served as the foundation for the design and implementation of the Dawn Ground Data System.

Ground Data System (GDS)↗

Longitudinal aerodynamic characteristics of a low-wing lift-fan transport including hover characteristics in and out of ground effect

The longitudinal aerodynamic characteristics of a six-fan, tip-driven (remote) lift-fan VTOL transport through transition were determined by an investigation conducted in the Langley V/STOL tunnel. Tests were also made with the large midspan lift-fan pods and lift-cruise fans removed to determine their their influence on the stability and control of the configuration. Data were obtained for a range of model height above ground.

Hoad, D. R.↗

Light energy conservation processes in Halobacterium halobium cells

Proton pumping driven by light or by respiration generates an electrochemical potential difference across the membrane in Halobacterium halobium. The pH changes induced by light or by respiration in cell suspensions are complicated by proton flows associated with the functioning of the cellular energy transducers. A proton-per-ATP ratio of about 3 is calculated from simultaneous measurements of phosphorylation and the proton inflow. This value is compatible with the chemiosmotic coupling hypothesis. The time course of the light-induced changes in membrane potential indicates that light-driven pumping increases a dark pre-existing potential of about 130 mV only by a small amount (20 to 30 mV). The complex kinetic features of the membrane potential changes do not closely follow those of the pH changes, which suggests that flows of ions other than protons are involved. A qualitative model consistent with the available data is presented.

Bogomolni, R. A.↗

Propeller aircraft interior noise model: User's manual for computer program

A computer program entitled PAIN (Propeller Aircraft Interior Noise) has been developed to permit calculation of the sound levels in the cabin of a propeller-driven airplane. The fuselage is modeled as a cylinder with a structurally integral floor, the cabin sidewall and floor being stiffened by ring frames, stringers and floor beams of arbitrary configurations. The cabin interior is covered with acoustic treatment and trim. The propeller noise consists of a series of tones at harmonics of the blade passage frequency. Input data required by the program include the mechanical and acoustical properties of the fuselage structure and sidewall trim. Also, the precise propeller noise signature must be defined on a grid that lies in the fuselage skin. The propeller data are generated with a propeller noise prediction program such as the NASA Langley ANOPP program. The program PAIN permits the calculation of the space-average interior sound levels for the first ten harmonics of a propeller rotating alongside the fuselage. User instructions for PAIN are given in the report. Development of the analytical model is presented in NASA CR 3813.

Wilby, E. G.↗

An Investigation of Polar Ozone Recovery in the 1997 Southern Hemisphere Spring

A chemical transport model is used to investigate the processes that control the depth and duration of the ozone 'hole' in the lower stratosphere through comparisons of model output with measurements from the Total Ozone Mapping Spectrometer (TOMS) and from the Microwave Limb Sounder (MLS) and Halogen Occultation Experiment (HALOE), both on the Upper Atmosphere Research Satellite (UARS). This study extends previous model comparisons with observations into October and November and examine levels in (greater than 31 hPa) and above (less than 31 hPa) the chemical loss region. Averages of column ozone in the model decrease through mid-October below 31 hPa but begin to increase in mid-September above 31 hPa. An investigation of model-tracer data comparisons and other meteorological parameters indicate that the model presents a consistent picture of top-down recovery and tracer transport. An O03budget study at 500 K (below 31 hPa) and 840 K (above 31 hPa) is carried out to investigate the processes that control the timing of the transition of ozone from a chemical to dynamically driven regime. The model ozone decrease at 500 K is due to chemical loss in August and September but is due to upward motion in October. The ozone increase at 840 K is primarily due to photochemical production, with a smaller contribution from transport. These results show that chemistry and dynamics can play different roles in polar vortex ozone recovery at different levels.

Pierson, J. M.↗

Zero to Integration in Eight Months, the Dawn Ground Data System Engineering Challange

The Dawn Project has presented the Ground Data System (GDS) with technical challenges driven by cost and schedule constraints commonly associated with National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) Discovery Projects. The Dawn mission consists of a new and exciting Deep Space partnership among: the Jet Propulsion Laboratory (JPL), responsible for project management and flight operations; Orbital Sciences Corporation (OSC), spacecraft builder and responsible for flight system test and integration; and the University of California, at Los Angeles (UCLA), responsible for science planning and operations. As a cost-capped mission, one of Dawn s implementation strategies is to leverage from both flight and ground heritage. OSC's ground data system is used for flight system test and integration as part of the flight heritage strategy. Mission operations, however, are to be conducted with JPL s ground system. The system engineering challenge of dealing with two heterogeneous ground systems emerged immediately. During the first technical interchange meeting between the JPL s GDS Team and OSC's Flight Software Team, August 2003, the need to integrate the ground system with the flight software was brought to the table. This need was driven by the project s commitment to enable instrument engineering model integration in a spacecraft simulator environment, for both demonstration and risk mitigation purposes, by April 2004. This paper will describe the system engineering approach that was undertaken by JPL's GDS Team in order to meet the technical challenge within a non-negotiable eight-month schedule. Key to the success was adherence to an overall systems engineering process and fundamental systems engineering practices: decomposition of the project request into manageable requirements; definition of a structured yet flexible development process; integration of multiple ground disciplines and experts into a focused team effort; in-process risk management; and aggregation of the intermediate products to an integrated final product. In addition, this paper will highlight the role of lessons learned from the integration experience. The lessons learned from an early GDS deployment have served as the foundation for the design and implementation of the Dawn Ground Data System.

systems engineering↗

Autonomous Ocean World Exploration: Advancement of a Virtual Testbed

The search for life (extinct or extant) and potentially habitable bodies in our solar system and beyond is one of the 12 priority science questions outlined in the National Acadamies’ 2022 decadal survey [5]. Extraterrestrial destinations containing liquid water present an opportunity to search for life as we know it, and in recent years an increasing number of such locations have been discovered within our solar system. Several Jovian moons—Europa, Ganymede, and Callisto [10]—and the Saturnian moons Enceladus [8] and Titan [9] are known or suspected to harbor massive subsurface oceans. Of these "ocean worlds", Europa is the focus of at least one planned NASA orbiter mission, Europa Clipper [4], and an early lander mission concept, the Europa Lander [2, 3]. Whereas most robotic missions to the Moon and Mars (e.g. orbiters, rovers, landers) to date have had ground controllers on Earth tightly involved in mission operations, missions to more distant worlds will require a high degree of onboard autonomy due to long communication lags and blackouts, harsh environments (radiation, cold), and more limited battery and hardware life. The past decade has seen great advances in both AI technologies and computing scalability and performance that offer promising solutions for spacecraft autonomy and motivate the software system and research programs described in this paper. The Ocean Worlds Autonomy Testbed for Exploration, Research, and Simulation (OceanWATERS) [1], which has been in development at the NASA Ames Research Center since 2018, is a virtual environment for testing lander autonomy solutions. It is built on the Robot Operating System (ROS), runs on consumer-grade Linux workstations, and was released as open source in 2020. OceanWATERS provides a physical and visual simulation of a prototypical lander in a Europa-like environment (Figure 1). The lander was modeled after requirements and specifications made in JPL’s Europa Lander Study of 2016 [3]. Simulated lander systems include stereo cameras and spotlights mounted on an antenna mast that pans and tilts, a 6 degrees of freedom (DoF) robotic arm with a force-torque sensor and two interchangeable end effectors, and a battery pack power system. The environment consists of multiple terrain models including a highly detailed model sourced from the FROST dataset [11], simulation of surrounding planetary bodies based on an ephemeris model, and lighting from the sun with associated surface illumination, reflectance, and shadows. Operations supported by OceanWATERS include panoramic and directed imaging of the environment and lander workspace, Cartesian and joint-level arm commanding, grinding of the terrain surface (e.g. digging a trench), and scooping of ground material (Figure 2) which can be discarded or collected as science samples in a receptacle that can be emptied (science operations themselves are not simulated). These operations are realized as ROS Actions and are complimented by a wide selection of telemetry that is continually produced by each lander subsystem. The power system model is driven by the open-source Generic Software Architecture for Prognostics (GSAP) [11] that predicts the battery’s remaining useful life and other characteristics. As a testbed for high-level autonomy, OceanWATERS provides an execution framework based on PLEXIL [12], an open-source plan specification language and execution engine developed largely at Ames. NASA's initial development of OceanWATERS, as well the Ocean Worlds Lander Autonomy Testbed (OWLAT) [6], a complimentary physical testbed developed at JPL, was the first step in a plan for realizing candidate onboard autonomy solutions for such planetary landers. In 2020 NASA solicited applications for its Autonomous Robotics Research for Ocean Worlds (ARROW) program, and in 2021 the similar Concepts for Ocean worlds Life Detection Technology (COLDTech) program. Collectively six research teams, based in universities and companies across the United States, were awarded grants to develop and demonstrate autonomy solutions on OceanWATERS and OWLAT. These 1–2-year projects have now finished or are nearing completion, and a wide variety of autonomy challenges in ocean world surface missions were addressed. Prototyped and demonstrated solutions have included autonomous discovery, response and adaptation to system faults and unexpected environmental events, world model synthesis through perception, plan synthesis using learned models, methods to optimize sample target selection and prioritize science data transmission, extension of PLEXIL for stochastic decision-making, and an integration of a model of JPL’s mission-ready COLDArm [7]. Technologies used in these projects include many forms of machine learning, causal reasoning, automated planning, Markov decision processes, formal methods, and other advanced techniques. A more detailed summary of the ARROW and COLDTech projects is given herein. OceanWATERS has had significant enhancements since its open-source release in 2020. Many of its new features were driven or shaped by feedback from the ARROW and COLDTech teams and requirements of their projects. In support of enabling autonomous adaptation to spacecraft faults (a specific capability solicited by both programs), a fault injection and detection framework was developed that supports a wide and growing range of fault types such as locked joints, image loss, and battery failures. The power system model was completed and integrated into the simulator, starting as a single-cell battery model and later upgraded to a multi-cell model with associated faults such as cell disconnection. Arm/terrain interaction was improved by adding a force-torque sensor and associated faults, and an analytic dig force model based on the Balovnev bucket force equations. Environment fidelity was increased by modeling terrain deformation resulting from digging and scooping; visual improvements were made in textures, lighting, and shadows. To facilitate interoperation with OWLAT, a unified command and telemetry interface between the testbeds was developed at the ROS level, along with a PLEXIL interface. The number of lander operations was greatly expanded (e.g. with Cartesian-based arm and antenna movement), and a framework was designed for users to build their own lander actions. A GUI for PLEXIL plan selection was created (Figure 3), and an expansive set of plans were added, such as those that illustrate patterns for fault handling. This paper provides a self-contained high-level description of OceanWATERS, focusing on more detailed coverage of the aforementioned enhancements. It provides a high-level summary of the projects undertaken by participants in the ARROW and COLDTech programs and how these efforts have helped shape OceanWATERS. Finally, potential future work and directions for the testbed are listed, as likely informed by the recent planetary science decadal survey [5].

K Michael Dalal↗

Magnetic fields and charged particles around major planets and their satellites

It is noted that whereas Jupiter and Saturn have magnetospheres whose large-scale structure can be understood by analogy with earth, the ways in which the magnetospheres differ are of great interest. At earth, large-scale processes are dominated by convective flows of plasma driven by the solar wind. At Jupiter, centrifugal effects that are driven by planetary rotation are critical. Magnetic particle sources include not only the ionosphere and solar wind (as at earth) but also satellites and rings. The internal planetary magnetic moments controlling the scale of the magnetosphere differ by orders of magnitude between Jupiter and earth. It is pointed out that where the magnetic moments have been modeled from spacecraft data, the restricted spatial sampling has biased the results and limited confidence in details of the models. Voyager data suggest that Io may itself be magnetized and surrounded by an entirely unfamiliar type of magnetosphere.

Kivelson, M. G.↗

A high-speed, large-capacity, 'jukebox' optical disk system

Two optical disk 'jukebox' mass storage systems which provide access to any data in a store of 10 to the 13th bits (1250G bytes) within six seconds have been developed. The optical disk jukebox system is divided into two units, including a hardware/software controller and a disk drive. The controller provides flexibility and adaptability, through a ROM-based microcode-driven data processor and a ROM-based software-driven control processor. The cartridge storage module contains 125 optical disks housed in protective cartridges. Attention is given to a conceptual view of the disk drive unit, the NASA optical disk system, the NASA database management system configuration, the NASA optical disk system interface, and an open systems interconnect reference model.

Ammon, G. J.↗

The Economics of Farming Expansion in the Brazilian Cerrado Under Possible Effects of Climate Change

This analysis assesses the financial viability of legally investing in native Cerrado vegetation deforestation for crop production, considering climate change. The study uses data from twelve different crop models based on three different climate models to predict potential future crop yields in cleared land for growing soy and maize. The outcomes show that in many micro-regions, investments in clearing land for crop production would destroy economic value, that is, generate a negative net present value because of low/negative and volatile cashflows driven primarily by future yields as affected by climate. Our analysis was carried out based on present agricultural practices and technology. As climate changes, farmers may adapt their practices, which can lead to more resilient and productive crops, or grow different crops, which could provide better returns on investment in clearing land than the ones resulting from our analysis. Despite various uncertainties, farmers, policy makers and financial institutions should be aware of the climatic and financial risks associated with land clearing in Brazil, mainly in micro-regions in which all scenarios resulted in negative outcomes in the investment analysis.

agricultural expansion↗

Next Generation Exercise Device (NGED): Advancing Exercise Capabilities for Future Space Missions Through Biomechanical Modeling

BACKGROUND As space exploration extends to long-duration missions on the Moon and Mars, maintaining astronaut health and fitness becomes increasingly critical. The Next Generation Exercise Device (NGED), developed and tested by the HumanWorks Lab in NASA Johnson Space Center's (JSC) Software, Robotics, and Simulation Division, aims to address this challenge through innovative approaches. This study presents the development and evaluation of an NGED system, focusing on its adaptability to various mission scenarios, including prospective use in a Lunar Pressurized Rover (LPR). Central to this project is the application of biomechanical modeling to optimize exercise efficacy and safety in microgravity and partial gravity environments. The project is a collaborative effort with the Human Health and Performance group at Johnson Space Center, ensuring a comprehensive approach to astronaut well-being that integrates biomechanical principles with practical exercise solutions. The NGED represents the next generation of exercise capabilities for missions in space, on the Moon and Mars, with a specific focus on applications such as the LPR. METHODS AND RESULTS Data collection for NGED development was conducted with two motor-driven Beyond Power Voltra I [1] systems and a custom test structure to allow placement of the cable-based devices on the ground, at shoulder height, and overhead. The collection was performed in JSC’s Prototype Immersive Technology (PIT) Lab, utilizing an OptiTrack motion capture system and AMTI force platform, to enable detailed biomechanical analysis via OpenSim [2,3]. Motion capture data were collected for three subjects representing different body types and statures. The marker set used was an enhanced version of the full-body Plug-in Gait marker set [4], with additional markers strategically placed for the primary objective of informing exercise volume requirements. Subjects performed a series of 17 exercises, carefully selected to engage various muscle groups, including novel spaceflight exercises such as skiing (ergometer style), lateral pulldowns, wood chops, triceps extensions, and flies, with load variations ranging from 10 to 90 pounds to maintain kinematic form. This comprehensive approach allowed for a thorough evaluation of the NGED's performance across a wide range of motions and loads. The biomechanical modeling and analysis were conducted using a modified OpenSim Full Body Rajagopal Model [4,5] and also scaled to the maximum and minimum anthropometry provided in NASA-STD-3001 [6]. Volumetric convex hulls were generated based on model marker trajectories and aggregated into geometric assemblies. These can be placed in models of vehicle designs to assess fit to protect for exercise as well as to adapt NGED exercise to fit available space. Preliminary findings from the collection indicate that the NGED prototype demonstrates significant adaptability across varying user anthropometrics and exercise types. The device showed consistent performance in load-bearing exercises, with subjects able to perform exercises effectively while maintaining proper biomechanical form. CONCLUSION NGED represents a forward-looking advancement in exercise capabilities for future space missions. In the future, this system can be used to capture valuable metrics (e.g., isometric mid-thigh pull for force output measurements, assessments of postural muscle strength, overall isometric strength). Its versatility in accommodating various exercises and user physiques, coupled with the ability to provide targeted biomechanical loading, makes it a promising approach for maintaining astronaut health during long-duration missions to the Moon and Mars. Future work will focus on refining the NGED based on initial biomechanical findings, leveraging the detailed insights provided by motion capture and analysis techniques. Particular emphasis will be placed on optimizing its use within the confined spaces of a LPR and other space habitats. This work contributes significantly to NASA's goals of supporting human health and performance in deep space exploration, paving the way for sustainable long-term presence beyond Low Earth Orbit through advanced, biomechanically-informed exercise solutions.

C Wang↗

Multisensor Machine Learning to Retrieve High Spatiotemporal Resolution Land Surface Temperature

Climate change is making heat waves more frequent, long-lasting, and severe. While multiple satellite types provide data to monitor surface temperature, geostationary (GEO) sensors provide near-continuous, continental-scale observations which can better capture the diurnal variability of land surface temperature (LST) than intermittent observations from low-earth orbit (LEO) sensors. However, standard products from GEO satellites are available at coarsened spatial and temporal resolutions compared to the native sensor resolution. Using datasets from the NASA Earth Exchange, we leveraged co-located, co-temporal observations from LEO and GEO satellites to learn a data-driven mapping using a convolutional neural network. The resulting NASA Earth eXchange Artificial Intelligence LST (NEXAI-LST) achieved a mean absolute error of 1.73 K relative to the target LEO product and improves on both spatial and temporal resolution [2 km, 10 minute] compared to the GEO full disk standard product [10 km, hourly]. In validation against measurements from a ground-based sensor network, NEXAI-LST achieves similar or better fit than both LEO and GEO standard products, while depending none of the prior knowledge of land surface and atmospheric states required by physical-statistical models. Further, application of the model to unseen LEO and GEO satellites demonstrates robust generalization of the model across spatial region, time of day, and sensor. In support of NASA’s open-source science initiative, we make our NEXAI-LST product, model, and codes available to facilitate data exploration and further studies.

Kate Marie Duffy↗

Laboratory for Engineering Man/Machine Systems (LEMS): System identification, model reduction and deconvolution filtering using Fourier based modulating signals and high order statistics

Several important problems in the fields of signal processing and model identification, such as system structure identification, frequency response determination, high order model reduction, high resolution frequency analysis, deconvolution filtering, and etc. Each of these topics involves a wide range of applications and has received considerable attention. Using the Fourier based sinusoidal modulating signals, it is shown that a discrete autoregressive model can be constructed for the least squares identification of continuous systems. Some identification algorithms are presented for both SISO and MIMO systems frequency response determination using only transient data. Also, several new schemes for model reduction were developed. Based upon the complex sinusoidal modulating signals, a parametric least squares algorithm for high resolution frequency estimation is proposed. Numerical examples show that the proposed algorithm gives better performance than the usual. Also, the problem was studied of deconvolution and parameter identification of a general noncausal nonminimum phase ARMA system driven by non-Gaussian stationary random processes. Algorithms are introduced for inverse cumulant estimation, both in the frequency domain via the FFT algorithms and in the domain via the least squares algorithm.

Pan, Jianqiang↗

Constraints from LIGO O3 Data on Gravitational-wave Emission Due to R-modes in the Glitching Pulsar PSR J0537-6910

We present a search for continuous gravitational-wave emission due to r-modes in the pulsar PSR J0537–6910 using data from the LIGO–Virgo Collaboration observing run O3. PSR J0537–6910 is a young energetic X-ray pulsar and is the most frequent glitcher known. The inter-glitch braking index of the pulsar suggests that gravitational-wave emission due to r-mode oscillations may play an important role in the spin evolution of this pulsar. Theoretical models confirm this possibility and predict emission at a level that can be probed by groundbased detectors. In order to explore this scenario, we search for r-mode emission in the epochs between glitches by using a contemporaneous timing ephemeris obtained from NICER data. We do not detect any signals in the theoretically expected band of 86–97 Hz, and report upper limits on the amplitude of the gravitational waves. Our results improve on previous amplitude upper limits from r-modes in J0537-6910 by a factor of up to 3 and place stringent constraints on theoretical models for r-mode-driven spin-down in PSR J0537–6910, especially for higher frequencies at which our results reach below the spin-down limit defined by energy conservation.

J. B. Camp↗

Foreshock Ion Motion Across Discontinuities: Formation of Foreshock Transients

In the ion foreshock, hot flow anomalies (HFAs) and foreshock bubbles (FBs) are two types of foreshock transients that have the strongest fluctuations, which can disturb the magnetosphere-ionosphere system and increase shock acceleration efficiency. They form due to interaction between the foreshock ions and solar wind discontinuities: the direction of the foreshock ion-driven current and whether it decreases or increases the magnetic field strength behind the discontinuity determine whether the transient's formation can be promoted or suppressed. Thus, to predict the HFA and FB formation and forecast their space weather effects, it is necessary to predict the foreshock ion-driven current direction. In this study, we derive analytical equations of foreshock ion velocities within discontinuities to estimate foreshock ion-driven current direction, which provides a quantitative criterion of HFA and FB formation. To validate the criterion, we use Acceleration Reconnection Turbulence & Electrodynamics of Moon's Interaction with the Sun to observe pristine solar wind discontinuities and calculate discontinuity parameters. We use Magnetospheric Multiscale to observe the foreshock ion motion around the discontinuities and show that the data support our model. This study is another step toward a predictive model of HFA and FB formation so that we can forecast their space weather effects at Earth using solar wind observations at lunar orbit or L1.

Terry Z. Liu↗

A System for Measurement of Convection Aboard Space Station

A simple device for direct measurement of buoyancy driven fluid flows in a low-gravity environment is proposed. A system connecting spacecraft accelerometers data and results of thermal convection in enclosure measurements and numerical simulations is developed. This system will permit also to evaluate the low frequency microacceleration component. The goal of the paper is to present objectives and current results of ground-based experimental and numerical modeling of this convection detector.

Bogatyrev, Gennady P.↗