Engineering Papers⌕ Search

SEARCH · Engineering Papers

Results for “data driven model”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 703 records · Page 39
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2022

Characterizing and Mitigating Intraday Variability: Reconstructing Source Structure in Accreting Black Holes with mm-VLBI

The extraordinary physical resolution afforded by the Event Horizon Telescope has opened a window onto the astrophysical phenomena unfolding on horizon scales in two known black holes, M87* and Sgr A*. However, with this leap in resolution has come a new set of practical complications. Sgr A* exhibits intraday variability that violates the assumptions underlying Earth aperture synthesis, limiting traditional image reconstruction methods to short timescales and data sets with very sparse (u, v) coverage. We present a new set of tools to detect and mitigate this variability. We develop a data-driven, model-agnostic procedure to detect and characterize the spatial structure of intraday variability. This method is calibrated against a large set of mock data sets, producing an empirical estimator of the spatial power spectrum of the brightness fluctuations. We present a novel Bayesian noise modeling algorithm that simultaneously reconstructs an average image and statistical measure of the fluctuations about it using a parameterized form for the excess variance in the complex visibilities not otherwise explained by the statistical errors. These methods are validated using a variety of simulated data, including general relativistic magnetohydrodynamic simulations appropriate for Sgr A* and M87*. We find that the reconstructed source structure and variability are robust to changes in the underlying image model. We apply these methods to the 2017 EHT observations of M87*, finding evidence for variability across the EHT observing campaign. The variability mitigation strategies presented are widely applicable to very long baseline interferometry observations of variable sources generally, for which they provide a data-informed averaging procedure and natural characterization of inter-epoch image consistency.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2021

Informing the planning of rotating power outages in heat waves through data analytics of connected smart thermostats for residential buildings

Abstract With climate change, heat waves have become more frequent and intense. Rotating power outages happen when the power supply is unable to meet the cooling demand increase resulting from extreme high temperatures. Power outages during heat waves expose residents to high risks of overheating. In this study, we propose a novel data-driven inverse modelling approach to inform decision makers and grid operators on planning rotating power outages. We first infer the building thermal characteristics using the connected smart thermostat data, and used the estimated thermal dynamics to simulate the thermal resilience during a heat wave event. Our proposed method was tested for the California power outage in August 2020 by using the open source Ecobee Donate Your Data dataset. We found in California the power outage should not last more than two hours during heat waves to avoid overheating risks. Informing the residents in advance so they can prepare for it through pre-cooling is a simple but effective strategy to expand the acceptable power outage duration. In addition to assisting power outage planning, the proposed method can be used for other applications, such as to evaluate a building energy efficiency policy, to examine fuel poverty, and to estimate the load shifting potential of building stocks.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
DOE OSTI2023

Uncertainty Quantification of Capacitor Switching Transient Location using Machine Learning

Identification of capacitor switching transient location provides valuable insight into the state of the associated equipment. Machine learning (ML) models, and convolutional neural networks (CNNs) in particular, have demonstrated remarkable performance in signal location. However, ML models are data driven whose predictions are affected by noise in data and may also suffer from large extrapolation errors when applied to new conditions. Uncertainty quantification (UQ) is necessary to ensure model trustworthiness and avoid overconfident predictions in extrapolation. Here, in this work, we propose a novel UQ method, called PI3NN, to quantify prediction uncertainty of ML models and integrate the method with CNNs for transient source location. PI3NN calculates Prediction Intervals by training 3 Neural Networks and uses root-finding methods to determine the interval precisely. Additionally, PI3NN can identify out-of-distribution (OOD) data in a nonstationary condition to avoid overconfident prediction. Results indicate that with PI3NN, transient signals are not only correctly identified, but when said signals are subject to corruptions characteristic of an actual power monitoring system (e.g. non-ideal sensors), the model recognizes when it is uncertain about its predictions, effectively letting the user know when to accept or discard the results.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2021

Deep Learning Predicts Stress–Strain Relations of Granular Materials Based on Triaxial Testing Data

This study presents an AI-based constitutive modelling framework wherein the prediction model directly learns from triaxial testing data by combining discrete element modelling (DEM) and deep learning. A constitutive learning strategy is proposed based on the generally accepted frame-indifference assumption in constructing material constitutive models. The low-dimensional principal stress-strain sequence pairs, measured from discrete element modelling of triaxial testing, are used to train recurrent neural networks, and then the predicted principal stress sequence is augmented to other high-dimensional or general stress tensor via coordinate transformation. Through detailed hyperparameter investigations, it is found that long short-term memory (LSTM) and gated recurrent unit (GRU) networks have similar prediction performance in constitutive modelling problems, and both satisfactorily predict the stress responses of granular materials subjected to a given unseen strain path. Furthermore, the unique merits and ongoing challenges of data-driven constitutive models for granular materials are discussed.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2026

TCAD-Machine Learning Enabled TID Compact Model Development for Commercial SiC MOSFET

We propose a TCAD (Technology Computer Aided Design)-machine learning coupled approach that combines a TCAD tool (Charon), optimization/uncertainty quantification tool (Dakota), surrogate models, and Bayesian learning capabilities. The coupling approach is used for accurate modeling and calibration of total ionizing dose (TID) induced threshold voltage (V th ) shifts in Commercial-Off-The-Shelf (COTS) semiconductor devices and to develop physics-informed TID compact models. This versatile approach is applied to model the TID effect in an exemplar COTS 3.3 kV SiC power MOSFET (Metal-Oxide-Semiconductor Field-Effect Transistor). With the Charon-Dakota coupling, we can determine key device geometry and doping values based on device physics, which are difficult to obtain or not available for COTS devices but important for TCAD simulation; additionally, we can efficiently generate thousands of simulation results in a large parameter space, which makes it possible to develop data-driven surrogate models and perform Bayesian calibration. Utilizing the full tool-coupling approach, we achieve calibrated TCAD simulation models that accurately capture the average TID-induced V th shifts behavior with total doses and V th shifts saturation at high doses as observed in experimental data. More importantly, the calibrated TCAD simulations are obtained with determined TID model parameters (e.g., hole trap density and capture cross section) values that contain well quantified uncertainties. Furthermore, we can isolate and quantify the noises that are not captured by the TCAD models but exist in the measured data due to measurements and devices variabilities. Lastly, the calibrated surrogate models are used to develop physics-informed TID compact models. The method is generalizable to other devices and/or radiation conditions with few modifications and can provide well-determined uncertainties.

COTS↗
DOE OSTI2021

Multifidelity computing for coupling full and reduced order models

Hybrid physics-machine learning models are increasingly being used in simulations of transport processes. Many complex multiphysics systems relevant to scientific and engineering applications include multiple spatiotemporal scales and comprise a multifidelity problem sharing an interface between various formulations or heterogeneous computational entities. To this end, we present a robust hybrid analysis and modeling approach combining a physics-based full order model (FOM) and a data-driven reduced order model (ROM) to form the building blocks of an integrated approach among mixed fidelity descriptions toward predictive digital twin technologies. At the interface, we introduce a long short-term memory network to bridge these high and low-fidelity models in various forms of interfacial error correction or prolongation. The proposed interface learning approaches are tested as a new way to address ROM-FOM coupling problems solving nonlinear advection-diffusion flow situations with a bifidelity setup that captures the essence of a broad class of transport processes.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Modeling and simulation to investigate the electrification potential of medium- and heavy-duty vehicle fleets

This project involves developing and integrating new modeling tools to simulate the dynamics of electric medium- and heavy-duty fleet vehicle adoption. A technical and economic modeling tool, combining a data-driven hardware cost model with a cost-optimal charging strategy microsimulation, enables tailored analysis of the costs and benefits of electrifying individual fleets. Next, a novel text synthesis process, applied to a curated corpus of literature, quantifies trade-offs between technical, economic, and other factors in the fleet vehicle procurement decision. The outcomes of these tasks combine with knowledge from recent literature on fleet decision processes to specify the vehicle procurement model used by fleets in an agent-based model of the medium- and heavy-duty electric vehicle market. This model embodies an especially disaggregated approach to adoption modeling, internalizing factors and dynamics that conventional adoption models externalize. In particular, explicitly modeling the formation and diffusion of opinions among agents enables experiments that conventional models cannot support. Demonstrations show, for example, that increasing the extent of interactions between populations with different proclivities to electric vehicles has an asymmetrical outcome. High-proclivity electric vehicle adoption is generally unaffected as interactions increase, but low-proclivity adoption is accelerated. By representing individual fleets' requirements and costs at a high level of detail, incorporating an adoption decision model informed by a wide body of empirical research, and broadening the array of variables and dynamics available for experimentation, this integrated model offers a new way to understand the urgent challenge of eliminating emissions from the most emissions-intensive transportation sectors.

Trinko, David A.↗
DOE OSTI2022

Sensitivity Study of Multiscale and Phenomenological Elasto-Viscoplastic Grade 91 Material Models for Component-Scale Response

Many advanced nuclear reactor concepts currently being developed are targeting higher operating temperatures relative to the current fleet of light water nuclear reactors, for efficiency gains and other operational considerations. The design of high temperature structural components with reliable long-term operational performance will depend on material models that accurately capture the inelastic deformation mechanisms active in these environments. In this work, we perform a detailed parameter sensitivity analysis of two unified elasto-viscoplastic Grade 91 material models capable of capturing long term high temperature creep deformation. The first model is a phenomelogical material model from the Nuclear Engineering Material Library (NEML) developed at Argonne National Lab. The NEML model parameters and their uncertainty were fit to a range of Grade 91 experimental data using Bayesian Markov Chain Monte Carlo analysis. The second model is a LAROMance data-driven surrogate material model developed at Los Alamos National Lab. The LAROMance model is fit to a large database of responses produced by a mechanistic crystal plasticity based polycrystal model. Parameters for the LAROMance surrogate material model reflect the pedigree of the Grade 91 microstructure. Both material models have been integrated into the Grizzly code, based on the open-source MOOSE multiphysics simulation framework, to simulate both the progression of aging mechanisms and the effects of that aging on nuclear power plant structures. Grizzly is used analyze a three-dimensional Grade 91 piping system to compare the long-term inelastic response predicted by these two fundamentally different models and assess the sensitivity of the material model input parameters on this quantity of interest.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2022

Transforming Energy Through Computational Excellence: Bringing Low Mach Number Reactive Flow Simulations at the Exascale

PeleLMeX's unique capabilities are allowing for reactive flow modeling at unprecedented scales and a reasonable time and cost. The code is currently being extended to tackle more practical, design-oriented simulations by implementing Large Eddy Simulation and data-driven chemical models, providing a fast but accurate tool for engineers considering the emergence of GPU-accelerated platforms. These extensions are critical for enabling the physical insight required to design the next generation of combustion devices as a key component of a renewable energy future.

MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2023

Continental Scale Hydrostratigraphy: Basin‐Scale Testing of Alternative Data‐Driven Approaches

Abstract Integrated hydrological modeling is an effective method for understanding interactions between parts of the hydrologic cycle, quantifying water resources, and furthering knowledge of hydrologic processes. However, these models are dependent on robust and accurate datasets that physically represent spatial characteristics as model inputs. This study evaluates multiple data‐driven approaches for estimating hydraulic conductivity and subsurface properties at the continental‐scale, constructed from existing subsurface dataset components. Each subsurface configuration represents upper (unconfined) hydrogeology, lower (confined) hydrogeology, and the presence of a vertical flow barrier. Configurations are tested in two large‐scale U.S. watersheds using an integrated model. Model results are compared to observed streamflow and steady state water table depth (WTD). We provide model results for a range of configurations and show that both WTD and surface water partitioning are important indicators of performance. We also show that geology data source, total subsurface depth, anisotropy, and inclusion of a vertical flow barrier are the most important considerations for subsurface configurations. While a range of configurations proved viable, we provide a recommended Selected National Configuration 1 km resolution subsurface dataset for use in distributed large‐and continental‐scale hydrologic modeling.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

Sampling Low-Dimensional Markovian Dynamics for Preasymptotically Recovering Reduced Models from Data with Operator Inference

This work introduces a method for learning low-dimensional models from data of high-dimensional black-box dynamical systems. The novelty is that the learned models are exactly the reduced models that are traditionally constructed with classical projection-based model reduction techniques. Thus, the proposed approach learns models that are guaranteed to have the well-studied properties of reduced models known from model reduction, without requiring full knowledge of the governing equations and without requiring the operators of the high-dimensional systems. The key ingredient is a new data sampling scheme to obtain re-projected trajectories of high-dimensional systems that correspond to Markovian dynamics in low-dimensional subspaces. The exact recovery of reduced models from these re-projected trajectories is guaranteed pre-asymptotically under certain conditions for finite amounts of data and for a large class of systems with polynomial nonlinear terms. Numerical results demonstrate that the low-dimensional models learned with the proposed approach match reduced models from traditional model reduction up to numerical errors in practice. In conclusion, the numerical results further indicate that low-dimensional models fitted to re-projected trajectories are predictive even in situations where models fitted to trajectories without re-projection are inaccurate and unstable.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2025

Model-free estimation of completeness, uncertainties, and outliers in atomistic machine learning using information theory

Abstract An accurate description of information is relevant for a range of problems in atomistic machine learning (ML), such as crafting training sets, performing uncertainty quantification (UQ), or extracting physical insights from large datasets. However, atomistic ML often relies on unsupervised learning or model predictions to analyze information contents from simulation or training data. Here, we introduce a theoretical framework that provides a rigorous, model-free tool to quantify information contents in atomistic simulations. We demonstrate that the information entropy of a distribution of atom-centered environments explains known heuristics in ML potential developments, from training set sizes to dataset optimality. Using this tool, we propose a model-free UQ method that reliably predicts epistemic uncertainty and detects out-of-distribution samples, including rare events in systems such as nucleation. This method provides a general tool for data-driven atomistic modeling and combines efforts in ML, simulations, and physical explainability.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2026

Fermilab Booster loss modelling and rebalancing using Bayesian methods

To meet PIP-II upgrade requirements, Fermilab Booster losses need to be reduced by 50% compared to present levels. So far, simulations are not good enough to predict loss patterns. Thus, an extensive Booster tune up will be necessary to achieve required performance. In this paper we present an effort to build a data-driven loss model using Bayesian techniques, and subsequently to rebalance losses for higher trip margins. We first created several sets of spatially and temporally isolated orbit and optics knobs, and trained Gaussian process models for each beam loss monitor as well as beam current. Novel techniques of uncertainty constraints and approximate GP fitting were introduced to handle safety and timing requirements. We then performed single and multi-objective tuning using scalarized objectives comprised of critical beam loss locations. We achieved significant rebalancing of losses, increasing margins by 25%, as well as an overall improvement in transmission efficiency of 0.4%. Automated data collection is being developed so that more accurate surrogate models can be trained over time.

Kuklev, N. [Fermilab]↗
DOE OSTI2021

Accelerating phase-field-based microstructure evolution predictions via surrogate models trained by machine learning methods

Abstract The phase-field method is a powerful and versatile computational approach for modeling the evolution of microstructures and associated properties for a wide variety of physical, chemical, and biological systems. However, existing high-fidelity phase-field models are inherently computationally expensive, requiring high-performance computing resources and sophisticated numerical integration schemes to achieve a useful degree of accuracy. In this paper, we present a computationally inexpensive, accurate, data-driven surrogate model that directly learns the microstructural evolution of targeted systems by combining phase-field and history-dependent machine-learning techniques. We integrate a statistically representative, low-dimensional description of the microstructure, obtained directly from phase-field simulations, with either a time-series multivariate adaptive regression splines autoregressive algorithm or a long short-term memory neural network. The neural-network-trained surrogate model shows the best performance and accurately predicts the nonlinear microstructure evolution of a two-phase mixture during spinodal decomposition in seconds, without the need for “on-the-fly” solutions of the phase-field equations of motion. We also show that the predictions from our machine-learned surrogate model can be fed directly as an input into a classical high-fidelity phase-field model in order to accelerate the high-fidelity phase-field simulations by leaping in time. Such machine-learned phase-field framework opens a promising path forward to use accelerated phase-field simulations for discovering, understanding, and predicting processing–microstructure–performance relationships.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2020

Evaluating the Potential and Challenges of an Uncertainty Quantification Method for Long Short–Term Memory Models for Soil Moisture Predictions

Recently, recurrent deep networks have shown promise to harness newly available satellite–sensed data for long–term soil moisture projections. However, to be useful in forecasting, deep networks must also provide uncertainty estimates. Here we evaluated Monte Carlo dropout with an input–dependent data noise term (MCD+N), an efficient uncertainty estimation framework originally developed in computer vision, for hydrologic time series predictions. MCD+N simultaneously estimates a heteroscedastic input–dependent data noise term (a trained error model attributable to observational noise) and a network weight uncertainty term (attributable to insufficiently constrained model parameters). Although MCD+N has appealing features, many heuristic approximations were employed during its derivation, and rigorous evaluations and evidence of its asserted capability to detect dissimilarity were lacking. To address this, we provided an in–depth evaluation of the scheme's potential and limitations. We showed that for reproducing soil moisture dynamics recorded by the Soil Moisture Active Passive (SMAP) mission, MCD+N indeed gave a good estimate of predictive error, provided that we tuned a hyperparameter and used a representative training data set. The input–dependent term responded strongly to observational noise, while the model term clearly acted as a detector for physiographic dissimilarity from the training data, behaving as intended. However, when the training and test data were characteristically different, the input–dependent term could be misled, undermining its reliability. Additionally, due to the data–driven nature of the model, data noise also influences network weight uncertainty, and therefore the two uncertainty terms are correlated. Altogether, this approach has promise, but care is needed to interpret the results.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗