DOE OSTI2017
This data package contains model data that were used to support conclusions drawn in “Declines in low-elevation subalpine populations outpace growth in high-elevation populations with warming”, by Conlisk et al. 2017. Experimental data collected at field sites within the Alpine Treeline Warming Experiment (ATWE), and data from long-term observational plots were collected on Niwot Ridge, Colorado, USA and used to formulate models contained within the folder “Model_archive” in the zipped folder “Conlisk_etal_JEcol2017_model_archive12022020.zip”. The contents of this compressed folder are described in the data user's guide attached to this archive.There are two folders within the zipped folder - “EngelmannSpruce” and “LimberPine” - for each of the two species in the paper. Models are stored as text files and .sch files can also be opened as text files. However, please note that all these files are specific to the RAMAS Metapop population modeling software, and you will need the program in order to be able to run these models. There are two separate documents, both named “Conlisk_JofEcology_SI_01262017” within “Model_archive”. One is a Microsoft Word file, and the other is a PDF. The former can be opened with Microsoft Word, and the latter can be opened by Adobe Acrobat Reader, or any software compatible with a PDF.------------------1. Species distribution shifts in response to climate change require that recruitment increase beyond current range boundaries. For trees with long lifespans, the importance of climate-sensitive seedling establishment to the pace of range shifts has not been demonstrated quantitatively. 2. Using spatially explicit, stochastic population models combined with data from long-term forest surveys, we explored whether the climate-sensitivity of recruitment observed in climate manipulation experiments was sufficient to alter populations and elevation ranges of two widely distributed, high-elevation North American conifers. 3. Empirically observed, warming-driven declines in recruitment led to rapid modeled population declines at the low-elevation, “warm edge” of subalpine forest and slow emergence of populations beyond the high-elevation, “cool edge”. Because population declines in the forest occurred much faster than population emergence in the alpine, we observed range contraction for both species. For Engelmann spruce, this contraction was permanent over the modeled time horizon, even in the presence of increased moisture. For limber pine, lower sensitivity to warming may facilitate persistence at low elevations – especially in the presence of increased moisture – and rapid establishment above treeline, and, ultimately, expansion into the alpine. 4. Synthesis. Assuming 21st century warming and no additional moisture, population dynamics in high-elevation forests led to transient range contractions for limber pine and potentially permanent range contractions for Engelmann spruce. Thus, limitations to seedling recruitment with warming can constrain the pace of subalpine tree range shifts.
54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗