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Results of the tug turnaround cost study and the space transportation system (STS) abort modes and effects study are presented for DOD/NASA system impact analysis. Cost estimates are given for tug turnabout; and vehicle description, abort assessment, and abort performance capability are given for the STS.
The demand and supply characteristics of short haul air transportation systems are investigated in terms of airline operating costs. Direct, indirect, and ground handling costs are included. Supply models of short haul air transportation systems are constructed.
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The potential exists that a hurricane striking the Kennedy Space Center while a Space Shuttle is on the pad. Winds in excess of 74.5 knots could cause the failure of the holddown bolts bringing about the catastrophic loss of the entire vehicle. Current plans call for the rollback of the shuttle when winds of that magnitude are forecast to strike the center. As this is costly, a new objective method for making rollback/rideout decisions based upon Bayesian Analysis and economic cost versus loss is presented.
In this paper the performance of Model Reference Adaptive Control (MRAC) is studied in numerical simulations and verified experimentally with the objective of understanding how differences between the plant and the reference model affect the control effort. MRAC is applied analytically and experimentally to a single degree of freedom system and analytically to a MIMO system with controlled differences between the model and the plant. It is shown that the control effort is sensitive to differences between the plant and the reference model. The effects of increased damping in the reference model are considered, and it is shown that requiring the controller to provide increased damping actually decreases the required control effort when differences between the plant and reference model exist. This result is useful because one of the first attempts to counteract the increased control effort due to differences between the plant and reference model might be to require less damping, however, this would actually increase the control effort. Optimization of weighting matrices is shown to help reduce the increase in required control effort. However, it was found that eventually the optimization resulted in a design that required an extremely high sampling rate for successful realization.
This paper describes the Multimission Telemetry Visualization (MTV) data acquisition/distribution system. MTV was developed by JPL's Multimedia Communications Laboratory (MCL) and designed to process and display digital, real-time, science and engineering data from JPL's Mission Control Center. The MTV system can be accessed using UNIX workstations and PC's over common datacom and telecom networks from worldwide locations. It is designed to lower data distribution costs while increasing data analysis functionality by integrating low-cost, off-the-shelf desktop hardware and software. MTV is expected to significantly lower the cost of real-time data display, processing, distribution, and allow for greater spacecraft safety and mission data access.
Low-cost sensors (LCSs) are increasingly being used to measure fine particulate matter (PM 2.5 ) concentrations in cities around the world. One of the most commonly deployed LCSs is PurpleAir with ∼15 000 sensors deployed in the United States, alone. PurpleAir measurements are widely used by the public to evaluate PM 2.5 levels in their neighborhoods. PurpleAir measurements are also increasingly being integrated into models by researchers to develop large-scale estimates of PM 2.5 . However, the change in sensor performance over time has not been well studied. It is important to understand the lifespan of these sensors to determine when they should be serviced or replaced, and when measurements from these devices should or should not be used for various applications. This paper fills this gap by leveraging the fact that: (1) each PurpleAir sensor is composed of two identical sensors and the divergence between their measurements can be observed, and (2) there are numerous PurpleAir sensors within 50 meters of regulatory monitors allowing for the comparison of measurements between these instruments. We propose empirically-derived degradation outcomes for the PurpleAir sensors and evaluate how these outcomes change over time. On average, we find that the number of ‘flagged’ measurements, where the two sensors within each PurpleAir sensor disagree, increases with time to ∼4% after 4 years of operation. Approximately, 2 percent of all PurpleAir sensors were permanently degraded. The largest fraction of permanently degraded PurpleAir sensors appeared to be in the hot and humid climate zone, suggesting that sensors in these locations may need to be replaced more frequently. We also find that the bias of PurpleAir sensors, or the difference between corrected PM2.5 levels and the corresponding reference measurements, changed over time by −0.12 μg m −3 (95% CI: −0.13 μg m −3 , −0.10 μg m −3 ) per year. The average bias increases dramatically after 3.5 years. Further, climate zone is a significant modifier of the association between degradation outcomes and time.
An economical model for preliminary analysis of LH2 cost from water electrolysis is presented. The model is based on data from vendors and open literature, and is suitable for computer analysis of different scenarios for 'directional' purposes. Cost data associated with a production rate of 10,886 kg/day are presented. With minimum modification, the model can also be used to predict LH2 cost from any electrolyzer once the electrolyzer's cost data are available.
Several experimental and projected Czochralski crystal growing process methods were studied and compared to available operations and cost-data of recent production Cz-pulling, in order to elucidate the role of the dominant cost contributing factors. From this analysis, it becomes apparent that substantial cost reductions can be realized from technical advancements which fall into four categories: an increase in furnace productivity; the reduction of crucible cost through use of the crucible for the equivalent of multiple state-of-the-art crystals; the combined effect of several smaller technical improvements; and a carry over effect of the expected availability of semiconductor grade polysilicon at greatly reduced prices. A format for techno-economic analysis of solar cell production processes was developed, called the University of Pennsylvania Process Characterization (UPPC) format. The accumulated Cz process data are presented.
A very low cost interactive image analysis computer system suitable for use in education, research, or operational remote sensing applications system should be centered around a high quality image display through which the analyst can use photointerpretation skills to evaluate and alter computer mapping or classification calculations. The definition of acceptable capabilities for such a system must take into account the needs of the image analyst balanced with current state-of-the-art technology and cost. A range of acceptable capabilities is defined based primarily on image analysis requirements, but tempered occassionally by cost and technology constraints. Desirable parameters are also listed.
Orbital debris poses a growing risk for spacecraft operations. This risk has most often been measured by proxies, like the number of debris or expected collisions, but few have attempted quantify the consequences of orbital debris or the costs and benefits of different methods to address the problem. This has made it difficult to assess the trade-offs and relative value among proposed actions for the mitigation, tracking, and remediation of debris. In March of 2023, the NASA Office of Technology, Policy, and Strategy (OTPS) took a step toward quantifying these relative values when we released Cost and Benefit Analysis of Orbital Debris Remediation. Since that time, OTPS has continued to build on this work. We have increased the fidelity of our risk model. For example, we added an ensemble of risk models that use varying assumptions of debris populations and lethality, included debris as small as 1mm, and incorporated atmospheric drag to naturally deorbit debris. We have also expanded our cost-benefit calculations to include action that mitigate and track debris, both large and small. The analysis has several important findings regarding the conditions under which debris remediation is more cost-effective than mitigation and tracking, the value of increased shielding of spacecraft and faster timelines for post-mission disposal, and how changes in the portfolio have interdependent effects. This presentation summarizes the body of work, with a particular focus on the risks and benefits to the global spacecraft population.
Equipment designed for junction formation in silicon solar cells is described. The equipment, designed for a production level of approximately one megawatt per year, consists of an ion implanter and annealer. Low cost is achieved by foregoing the use of mass analysis during the implantation, and by the use of a belt furnace for annealing. Results of process development, machine design and cost analysis are presented.
BACKGROUND: Reducing cost and time is the major concern in clinical diagnostics, particularly in molecular diagnostics. Miniaturization technologies have been recognized as promising solutions to provide low-cost microchips for diagnostics. With the recent advancement in nanotechnologies, it is possible to further improve detection sensitivity and simplify sample preparation by incorporating nanoscale elements in diagnostics devices. A fusion of micro- and nanotechnologies with biology has great potential for the development of low-cost disposable chips for rapid molecular analysis that can be carried out with simple handheld devices. APPROACH: Vertically aligned multiwalled carbon nanotubes (MWNTs) are fabricated on predeposited microelectrode pads and encapsulated in SiO2 dielectrics with only the very end exposed at the surface to form an inlaid nanoelectrode array (NEA). The NEA is used to collect the electrochemical signal associated with the target molecules binding to the probe molecules, which are covalently attached to the end of the MWNTs. CONTENT: A 3 x 3 microelectrode array is presented to demonstrate the miniaturization and multiplexing capability. A randomly distributed MWNT NEA is fabricated on each microelectrode pad. Selective functionalization of the MWNT end with a specific oligonucleotide probe and passivation of the SiO2 surface with ethylene glycol moieties are discussed. Ru(bpy)2+ -mediator-amplified guanine oxidation is used to directly measure the electrochemical signal associated with target molecules. SUMMARY: The discussed MWNT NEAs have ultrahigh sensitivity in direct electrochemical detection of guanine bases in the nucleic acid target. Fewer than approximately 1000 target nucleic acid molecules can be measured with a single microelectrode pad of approximately 20 x 20 microm2, which approaches the detection limit of laser scanners in fluorescence-based DNA microarray techniques. MWNT NEAs can be easily integrated with microelectronic circuitry and microfluidics for development of a fully automated system for rapid molecular analysis with minimum cost.
A simple and efficient computational strategy for reducing both the size of a tire model and the cost of the analysis of tires in the presence of symmetry-breaking conditions (unsymmetry in the tire material, geometry, or loading) is presented. The strategy is based on approximating the unsymmetric response of the tire with a linear combination of symmetric and antisymmetric global approximation vectors (or modes). Details are presented for the three main elements of the computational strategy, which include: use of special three-field mixed finite-element models, use of operator splitting, and substantial reduction in the number of degrees of freedom. The proposed computational stategy is applied to three quasi-symmetric problems of tires: linear analysis of anisotropic tires, through use of semianalytic finite elements, nonlinear analysis of anisotropic tires through use of two-dimensional shell finite elements, and nonlinear analysis of orthotropic tires subjected to unsymmetric loading. Three basic types of symmetry (and their combinations) exhibited by the tire response are identified.
The Machine Translation Project consists of several components, two of which, the Project Plan and the Requirements Analysis, have already been delivered. The Project Plan details the overall rationale, objectives and time-table for the project as a whole. The Requirements Analysis compares a number of available machine translation systems, their capabilities, possible configurations, and costs. The Alternatives Analysis has resulted in a number of conclusions and recommendations to the NASA STI program concerning the acquisition of specific MT systems and related hardware and software.
Are NASA’s space flight instruments becoming cheaper or more expensive as time marches forward? After analyzing the costs of hundreds of instruments launched over the last 30 years, the short answer to this question is no… and yes. This paper gives a visual analysis of the cost time trends for various NASA space flight instrument types, such as optical, particles detectors, fields detectors and microwave instruments. In addition to the statistical approaches utilized, such as significance tests, cluster analysis and principle components analysis (PCA), we will also discuss the intangibles which are likely at play, including technological progress, NASA policy and the luck of the draw associated with mission manifests. This analysis was performed as the main driver for the NASA Instrument Cost Model (NICM) recent cost estimating model redesign. Started in 2004, the first version of NICM was based off of instruments launched from 1985-2005, or 20 years’ worth of data. As NICM hit its 10-year anniversary, we wanted to know: should NICM continue to only use the most recent 20 years’ worth of data (1995-2015)? Are instruments becoming cheaper or more expensive as time marches forward? There is evidence in favor of a drop in the median dollar-per-kg value across some instrument types, but little in others. Whereas further research is needed to substantiate, Particles and Optical-Planetary instrument types show moderate to strong evidence of a downward trend in dollar-per-kg. Further research is required to study the nature of this trend (shift, taper, cyclic, etc.). Little evidence for a similar downward trend was detected for Fields or Microwave instruments, or Optical instruments on Earth Orbiting spacecraft. We presented evidence in favor of a drop in the median dollar-per-kg value for Particles and Optical-Planetary instrument types. While similar evidence was weak at best for Fields and Microwave instruments. We can speculate as to the causes for this effect, but we are also equipped to begin to rule out, or at least prioritize, some of the suspected drivers. We observed, for Particles and Optical-Planetary instruments, that perhaps a launch manifest effect was playing part of the role in the observed decrease in dollar-per-kg over the years, noting that the more flagship class missions, which have more money to spend on their instruments, were seen in the earlier years in our data, versus the later years which were dominated by less expensive class missions. However, if this were a dominating driver, would we not have seen the downward trend in the Fields and Microwave instruments as well, which were drawn from that same launch manifest? The fact that we did not observe this helps us rule out the launch manifest effect, and other drivers, such as advances in technology, that seem to be more likely suspects. In that case, however, why would technology advances be helping the Particles and Optical-Planetary instruments only? Why would it not be impacting Optical-Earth Orbiting instruments? Further suspects were looked at as well and ruled out, such as the “Faster, Better, Cheaper”era of NASA development which did not seem to actually impact trends by instrument type on a dollar-perkg scale. VI. Future Work A. Time Series Detailed Statistical Assessment The analysis discussed above sets the foundation for a more rigorous time series analysis of the data. Time series analysis will further explore evidence to-date of time trends for the instrument types which showed the strongest indicators for a decrease in dollar-per-kg: Optical (Planetary) and Particles instruments. More than providing evidence and top-level significance tests, time series analysis would help elucidate what kind of trend that exists in the data, their significance and allow statistically based forecasting (see Figure 10)
Simplified analytical techniques of sounding rocket programs are suggested as a means of bringing the cost of thermal analysis of the Get Away Special (GAS) payloads within acceptable bounds. Particular attention is given to two methods adapted from sounding rocket technology - a method in which the container and payload are assumed to be divided in half vertically by a thermal plane of symmetry, and a method which considers the container and its payload to be an analogous one-dimensional unit having the real or correct container top surface area for radiative heat transfer and a fictitious mass and geometry which model the average thermal effects.
This paper describes measurement systems required to forecast, measure, and control activities for large, complex software development and support programs. Initial software cost and quality analysis provides the foundation for meaningful management decisions as a project evolves. In modeling the cost and quality of software systems, the relationship between the functionality, quality, cost, and schedule of the product must be considered. This explicit relationship is dictated by the criticality of the software being developed. This balance between cost and quality is a viable software engineering trade-off throughout the life cycle. Therefore, the ability to accurately estimate the cost and quality of software systems is essential to providing reliable software on time and within budget. Software cost models relate the product error rate to the percent of the project labor that is required for independent verification and validation. The criticality of the software determines which cost model is used to estimate the labor required to develop the software. Software quality models yield an expected error discovery rate based on the software size, criticality, software development environment, and the level of competence of the project and developers with respect to the processes being employed.