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This presentation provides an overview of National Renewable Energy Laboratory and Argonne National Laboratory research as part of the pipeline blending CRADA (a HyBlend project) to the DOE's 2024 Annual Merit Review.
Abstract The cost‐benefit of riparian buffers to landowners has not been fully understood despite its ecosystem benefits. This study investigates the environmental and economic value of multi‐purpose buffers for biomass production under alternative land‐management scenarios at the watershed scale. The work incorporates the Soil and Water Assessment Tool with a field‐scale tool, the Agriculture Conservation Practice Framework, and cost‐benefit analysis. Our work took place in the agriculturally dominant Raccoon River watershed (RRW) in Iowa. The cost analysis includes implementing and harvesting the switchgrass buffers, the value of nitrogen and phosphorus fertilizer, and the forgone income of cropland to determine the net return under 12 alternative feedstock scenarios. We estimated that 14 603 Mg of nitrogen and 2563 Mg of phosphorus runoffs can be intercepted by riparian buffers in the RRW, representing a nutrient loss reduction of 11% of nitrogen and 26% of phosphorus. These nutrients are valued at $1.31 million (M) for phosphorus and $1.24 M for nitrogen as fertilizers. The trapped nutrients account for 12% of the riparian buffers’ total cost. We found that net economic returns increase with biomass market price, increase with maintenance fertilizer application, and decrease with the cropland areas that are converted to buffers. Under current land management, a biomass market price at $60 per dry ton of biomass would be economically viable at the sub‐basin level when maintenance fertilizers are applied. At $80 per dry ton, all 108 sub‐basins in the RRW would be profitable up to $517 a year. The results highlight the trade‐offs between water quality and profitability. Published 2021. This article is a U.S. Government work and is inthe public domain in the USA. Biofuels, Bioproducts and Biorefining published by Society of Industrial Chemistry and John Wiley & Sons Ltd.
The vehicle design evaluation program is described. This program is a computer-aided design procedure that provides a vehicle synthesis capability for vehicle sizing, external load analysis, structural analysis, and cost evaluation. The vehicle sizing subprogram provides geometry, weight, and balance data for aircraft using JP, hydrogen, or methane fuels. The structural synthesis subprogram uses a multistation analysis for aerodynamic surfaces and fuselages to develop theoretical weights and geometric dimensions. The parts definition subprogram uses the geometric data from the structural analysis and develops the predicted fabrication dimensions, parts material raw stock buy requirements, and predicted actual weights. The cost analysis subprogram uses detail part data in conjunction with standard hours, realization factors, labor rates, and material data to develop the manufacturing costs. The program is used to evaluate overall design effects on subsonic commercial type aircraft due to parameter variations.
Background data and study results are presented for the interim upper stage (IUS) operations phase of the IUS/tug orbital operations study. The study was conducted to develop IUS operational concepts and an IUS baseline operations plan, and to provide cost estimates for IUS operations. The approach used was to compile and evaluate baseline concepts, definitions, and system, and to use that data as a basis for the IUS operations phase definition, analysis, and costing analysis. Both expendable and reusable IUS configurations were analyzed and two autonomy levels were specified for each configuration. Topics discussed include on-orbit operations and interfaces with the orbiter, the tracking and data relay satellites and ground station support capability analysis, and flight control center sizing to support the IUS operations.
The primary mission at NASA Stennis Space Center (SSC) is rocket propulsion testing. Such testing is commonly characterized as one of two types: production testing for certification and acceptance of engine hardware, and developmental testing for prototype evaluation or research and development (R&D) purposes. For programmatic reasons there is a continuing need to assess and evaluate the test costs for the various types of test campaigns that involve liquid rocket propellant test articles. Presently, in fact, there is a critical need to provide guidance on what represents a best value for testing and provide some key economic insights for decision-makers within NASA and the test customers outside the Agency. Hence, selected rocket propulsion test databases and references have been evaluated and analyzed with the intent to discover correlations of technical information and test costs that could help produce more reliable and accurate cost projections in the future. The process of searching, collecting, and validating propulsion test cost information presented some unique obstacles which then led to a set of recommendations for improvement in order to facilitate future cost information gathering and analysis. In summary, this historical account and evaluation of rocket propulsion test cost information will enhance understanding of the various kinds of project cost information; identify certain trends of interest to the aerospace testing community.
An economic analysis using econometric and cost benefit analysis techniques was performed to determine the feasibility of space processing of certain products. The overall objectives of the analysis were (1) to determine specific products or processes uniquely connected with space manufacturing, (2) to select a specific product or process from each of the areas of semiconductors, metals, and biochemicals, and (3) to determine the overall price/cost structure of each product or process considered. The economic elements of the analysis involved a generalized decision making format for analyzing space manufacturing, a comparative cost study of the selected processes in space vs. earth manufacturing, and a supply and demand study of the economic relationships of one of the manufacturing processes. Space processing concepts were explored. The first involved the use of the shuttle as the factory with all operations performed during individual flights. The second concept involved a permanent unmanned space factory which would be launched separately. The shuttle in this case would be used only for maintenance and refurbishment. Finally, some consideration was given to a permanent manned space factory.
Multilevel optimization methods are being considered for the design of complex systems on distributed networks of computers or even parallel processors. An obstacle to the use of multilevel methods is that they can be computationally expensive because of the cycling necessary to account for the coupling between the subproblems. This research effort aims at increasing the efficiency of multilevel optimization by adapting two techniques that are widely used in conventional one-level optimization: constraint approximation and temporary constraint deletion. These improvements are implemented and tested on three-, ten- and 52-bar planar truss designs. The results show that for larger problems (approximately 100 design variables and larger), the cost of analysis dominates the total cost so that multilevel optimization is no more expensive than one-level optimization. If parallel processing is used or the analysis process itself is decomposed, then multilevel optimization stands to become more economical than one-level optimization.
Due to continuing global energy market trends, driven heavily by the abundant preserves of natural gas, there is an immediate need to reduce costs associated with operation and maintenance (O&M) for the current domestic nuclear power industry and for future reactor developments. This is to ensure that nuclear power generation remains an economically competitive and viable option in the energy market. O&M costs include labor-intensive preventive maintenance (PM) programs, which involve manually-performed inspection, calibration, testing, and maintenance of plant assets at periodic frequency and time-based replacement of assets, irrespective of their condition. This has resulted in an expensive, labor-centric business model to achieve high capacity factors. Fortunately, there are technologies (advanced sensors, data analytics, and risk assessment methodologies) that can enable the transition from a labor-centric business model to a technology-centric business model. The technology-centric business model will result in a significant reduction of PM activities, laying the foundation for real-time condition assessment of plant assets, reducing overall labor and part costs. To enable this transition, PKMJ Technical Services LLC is partnering with the U.S. Department of Energy’s Idaho National Laboratory (operated by the Battelle Energy Alliance, LLC) and the Public Services Enterprise Group (PSEG) Nuclear, LLC in the Integrated Risk-Informed Condition-Based Maintenance Capability and Automated Platform Project. In this report, the configuration of a digital cloud platform using Microsoft Azure is discussed, data from the PSEG Salem Nuclear Generating Station Units 1 & 2 are imported into a digital cloud platform, and the data is used for an evaluation of several key areas: cost impact analysis, risk-informed model development, and preventive maintenance strategy optimization. First, the cost impact analysis reviews which plant assets are potential good candidates for condition-based monitoring. Next, INL utilized the data in their local environment to develop the risk-informed model; which provides estimates of failure rates and probability of failures of assets based upon their past performance. The developed model is performed on assets selected from the cost impact analysis. Lastly, engineers assess the preventive maintenance strategy for the selected assets at PSEG against maintenance strategies in the nuclear industry for similar assets to potentially identify acceptable justification for the extension of current maintenance frequencies.
An updated version of the Solar Array Manufacturing Industry Costing Standards (SAMICS) was presented. This version will run on the IBM PC-XT or compatibles, and embodies user friendly input screens and numerous help options. Use of this microcomputer version will still produce the old main frame direct cost driven analysis, although at some cost in turnaround time. A typical simulation will take about 4 hours. The program allows for unattended report printout. Also available is the IBM PC (or compatibles) version of the Improved Price Estimation Guidelines (IPEG). This program allows rapid analysis of process variables using SAMICS-generated coefficients.
A key component of any cost risk analysis is the level of correlation between individual elements of cost. This analysis supplements the available historical records with the cost estimates from the JPL Advanced Design Team. The costs from actual JPL flight projects are then used to validate the results, clearly indicating that, on average, the correlation between elements of cost is between 0.4 and 0.7.
CARRAC is software tool for combined analysis of reliability, redundancy, and cost of alternative choices of subsystem that is part of larger system. Uses various parameters entered from computer keyboard to determine subsystem and redundancy method (if any) that minimizes cost. Also, calculation selected from five different mathematical models that enable application of CARRAC to wide variety of cases. Uses parameters to calculate and compare total expected cost for alternatives of a chosen subsystem. Written in Microsoft Quick-Basic v4.5.
Cost is one of the biggest obstacles to sending humans to Mars. However, spacecraft costs are typically not estimated until after the preliminary vehicle and mission concepts have been designed. By automating the cost estimation process, the effect of any change in vehicle or mission design on the mission cost can be determined more efficiently. This paper describes an extension to the tool Systems Analysis for Planetary Entry, Descent, and Landing which integrates the cost modeling software System Estimation and Evaluation of Resources- Hardware with a number of systems analysis tools. This new method is used to analyze several tradespaces of an entry vehicle for human Mars missions utilizing a Hypersonic Inflatable Aerodynamic Decelerator and provide preliminary results. Key findings include quantifying how ballistic coefficient, main engine specific impulse, and thrust to weight ratio affect the cost of the vehicle and how the payload per lander and number of landers affects the cost of a campaign to Mars.
Cost is one of the biggest obstacles to sending humans to Mars. However, spacecraft costs are typically not estimated until after the preliminary vehicle and mission concepts have been designed. By automating the cost estimation process, the effect of any change in vehicle or mission design on the mission cost can be determined more efficiently. This paper describes an extension to the tool Systems Analysis for Planetary Entry, Descent, and Landing which integrates the cost modeling software System Estimation and Evaluation of Resources-Hardware with a number of systems analysis tools. This new method is used to analyze several trade spaces of an entry vehicle for human Mars missions utilizing a Hypersonic Inflatable Aerodynamic Decelerator and provide preliminary results. Key findings include quantifying how ballistic coefficient, main engine specific impulse, and thrust to weight ratio affect the cost of the vehicle and how the payload per lander and number of landers affects the cost of a campaign to Mars.
A parametric study of postbuckled through-width delaminations in laminated coupons was performed. A finite element analysis was developed to analyze the coupons as a combination of linear and geometrically nonlinear components. Because most of the coupon configuration studied behaves linearly, the mixed linear and nonlinear analysis greatly reduced computational costs. The analysis was verified by comparing numerical with exact solutions for simple hypothetical problems. In addition, measured lateral deflections of postbuckled through-width delaminations in laminated coupons were compared with predicted deflections. In the parametric study, stress distributions and strain-energy release rates were calculated for various delamination lengths, delamination depths, applied loads, and lateral deflections. Also, a small number of coupons with through-width delaminations were fatigue tested to obtain delamination growth data. Calculated strain-energy release rates were compared with the observed growth rates to determine the relative importance of the Mode 1 and Mode 2 components of energy release. Growth process was dominated by G sub I.
The evolution of satellite operations over the last 40 years has drastically changed. October 4, 1957 (during the cold war) the Soviet Union launched the world's first spacecraft into orbit. The Sputnik satellite orbited Earth for three months and catapulted the United States into a race for dominance in space. A year after Sputnik, President Dwight Eisenhower formed the National Space and Aeronautics Administration (NASA). With a team of scientists and engineers, NASA successfully launched Explorer 1, the first US satellite to orbit Earth. During these early years, massive amounts of ground support equipment and operators were required to successfully operate spacecraft vehicles. Today, budget reductions and technological advances have forced new approaches to spacecraft operations. These approaches require increasingly complex, on board spacecraft systems, that enable autonomous operations, resulting in more cost-effective mission operations. NASA's Goddard Space Flight Center, considered world class in satellite development and operations, has developed and operated over 200 satellites during its 40 years of existence. NASA Goddard is adopting several new millennium initiatives that lower operational costs through the spacecraft autonomy and automation. This paper examines NASA's approach to spacecraft autonomy and ground system automation through a comparative analysis of satellite missions for Hubble Space Telescope-HST, Near Earth Asteroid Rendezvous-NEAR, and Solar Heliospheric Observatory-SoHO, with emphasis on cost reduction methods, risk analysis and anomalies and strategies employed for mitigating risk.
The analysis of the benefits and costs of aeronautical research and technology (ABC-ART) models are documented. These models were developed by NASA for use in analyzing the economic feasibility of applying advanced aeronautical technology to future civil aircraft. The methodology is composed of three major modules: fleet accounting module, airframe manufacturing module, and air carrier module. The fleet accounting module is used to estimate the number of new aircraft required as a function of time to meet demand. This estimation is based primarily upon the expected retirement age of existing aircraft and the expected change in revenue passenger miles demanded. Fuel consumption estimates are also generated by this module. The airframe manufacturer module is used to analyze the feasibility of the manufacturing the new aircraft demanded. The module includes logic for production scheduling and estimating manufacturing costs. For a series of aircraft selling prices, a cash flow analysis is performed and a rate of return on investment is calculated. The air carrier module provides a tool for analyzing the financial feasibility of an airline purchasing and operating the new aircraft. This module includes a methodology for computing the air carrier direct and indirect operating costs, performing a cash flow analysis, and estimating the internal rate of return on investment for a set of aircraft purchase prices.
This report presents an analytical methodology to identify alternative options to manage interconnection costs and streamline interconnection timelines for distribution system-connected photovoltaic (PV) systems not co-located with load. Specifically, the report details the methodology and results of an analysis that: 1. Identifies potential grid violations that would be induced by a PV system requesting interconnection to a distribution circuit; 2. Identifies multiple technically viable options for mitigating the potential violations, including infrastructure upgrades, downsizing the PV system size, curtailment of PV, and addition of battery energy storage; 3. Defines the required technical operating parameters of the system in order to mitigate all potential violations (the "Operating Envelope"); 4. Compares the economics of each option, from the PV developer's perspective. The analysis supports the ongoing evolution of interconnection standards for combined PV and energy storage systems by providing a methodology to define allowable maximum export limits during each hour. The methodology presented could be used by utilities as part of the interconnection study process, to inform negotiations with DER developers and the drafting of mutually acceptable interconnection agreements. The resulting technical operating parameters could be included as part of the interconnection service agreement (ISA) between the system owner and the utility company. The companion report to this analysis, Gill et al. (2022), details the envisioned framework for the implementation of the technical operating parameters.
This viewgraph presentation provides a cost benefit analysis of three next-generation forward-looking turbulence sensing systems: X band turbulence radar system for convective turbulence, LIDAR based turbulence systems to sense clear air turbulence and a combined hybrid system. Parameters for the cost benefit analysis were established using a business model which considered injury rates, cost of injuries, indirect costs, market penetration rate estimates and product success characteristics. Topics covered include: study approach, business case equations, data acquisition, benchmark analysis. Data interpretation from the cost benefit analysis is presented. The researchers conclude that the market potential for these products is based primarily on injury cost reduction and that X band radar systems have the greatest chance for commercial success.