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At least 703 records · Page 39

Opportunities for low-carbon generation and storage technologies to decarbonise the future power system

Alternatives to cope with the challenges of high shares of renewable electricity in power systems have been addressed from different approaches, such as energy storage and low-carbon technologies. However, no model has previously considered integrating these technologies under stability requirements and different climate conditions. In this study, we include this approach to analyse the role of new technologies to decarbonise the power system. The Spanish power system is modelled to provide insights for future applications in other regions. After including storage and low-carbon technologies (currently available and under development), batteries and hydrogen fuel cells have low penetration, and the derived emission reduction is negligible in all scenarios. Compressed air storage would have a limited role in the short term, but its performance improves in the long term. Flexible generation technologies based on hydrogen turbines and long-duration storage would allow the greatest decarbonisation, providing stability and covering up to 11-14 % of demand in the short and long term. The hydrogen storage requirement is equivalent to 18 days of average demand (well below the theoretical storage potential in the region). When these solutions are considered, decarbonising the electricity system (achieving Paris targets) is possible without a significant increase in system costs (< 114 euro/MWh).

08 HYDROGEN↗

Green Propulsion Technologies for Advanced Air Transports

Air transportation is critical to U.S. and Global economic vitality. However, energy and climate issues challenge aviations ability to be sustainable in the long term. Aviation must dramatically reduce fuel use and related emissions. Energy costs to U.S. airlines nearly tripled between 1995 and 2011, and continue to be the highest percentage of operating costs. The NASA Advanced Air Transports Technology Project addresses the comprehensive challenge of enabling revolutionary energy efficiency improvements in subsonic transport aircraft combined with dramatic reductions in harmful emissions and perceived noise to facilitate sustained growth of the air transportation system. Advanced technologies and the development of unconventional aircraft systems offer the potential to achieve these improvements. The presentation will highlight the NASA vision of revolutionary systems and propulsion technologies needed to achieve these challenging goals. Specifically, the primary focus is on the N+3 generation; that is, vehicles that are three generations beyond the current state of the art, requiring mature technology solutions in the 2025-30 timeframe, which are envisioned as being powered by Hybrid Electric Propulsion Systems.

Hybrid Electric↗

The Sunspot Record: 1826-1980

The International Sunspot Number is used as a measure of the level of solar activity in many important studies. This includes studies of the effects of solar activity on climate change and on the generation of radioisotopes used to infer levels of solar activity going back thousands of years. Any systematic errors in the historical record of the sunspot number can profoundly alter the conclusions of these studies. There is substantial evidence that the currently accepted International Sunspot Numbers have been subjected to changes in the way the numbers are calculated and to changes in the weights given to observations of various observers. In this talk I will focus on the time period from 1826 to 1980 which covers principal observers Schwabe, Wolf, Wolfer, Brunner, and Waldmeier. Previous investigations have indicated problems associated with Schwabe's observations (1826 to 1867), the first decades of the Greenwich observations (1874 to about 1910), and the introduction of a different counting method by Waldmeier (1946-1980). I will examine the evidence for these problems and the possible solutions that might be used to provide improved estimates of the sunspot numbers and their errors over this time interval.

Hathaway, David H.↗

Green Propulsion Technologies for Advanced Air Transports

Air transportation is critical to U.S. and Global economic vitality. However, energy and climate issues challenge aviation's ability to be sustainable in the long term. Aviation must dramatically reduce fuel use and related emissions. Energy costs to U.S. airlines nearly tripled between 1995 and 2011, and continue to be the highest percentage of operating costs. The NASA Advanced Air Transports Technology Project addresses the comprehensive challenge of enabling revolutionary energy efficiency improvements in subsonic transport aircraft combined with dramatic reductions in harmful emissions and perceived noise to facilitate sustained growth of the air transportation system. Advanced technologies and the development of unconventional aircraft systems offer the potential to achieve these improvements. The presentation will highlight the NASA vision of revolutionary systems and propulsion technologies needed to achieve these challenging goals. Specifically, the primary focus is on the N+3 generation; that is, vehicles that are three generations beyond the current state of the art, requiring mature technology solutions in the 2025-30 timeframe.

Del Rosario, Rubén↗

The Ancient Martian Climate System

Today Mars is a cold, dry, desert planet. The atmosphere is thin and liquid water is not stable at the surface. But there is evidence that very early in its history, some 3.7-4.1 billion years ago, the climate system supported much warmer conditions including an active hydrological cycle with rainfall and runoff. Given the importance of liquid water to astrobiology and NASA’s Mars Exploration Program, researchers have been trying to understand the ancient martian climate system since the early 1970s when the Mariner 9 spacecraft first detected fluvial features on its oldest terrains. Though the evidence for warm wet conditions is compelling, the problem is not yet solved. The main issue is coping with the faint young sun. During the period when warmer conditions prevailed the sun’s luminosity was ~25% less than it is today. How can we explain the presence of liquid water on the surface of ancient Mars under such conditions? A similar problem exists for Earth, which would have frozen over under a faint sun even though the evidence suggests otherwise. Attempts to solve the “Faint Young Sun Paradox”, as it is commonly known, rely on greenhouse warming from an atmosphere with a different mass and composition than we see today. This is true for both Mars and Earth. However, for Mars there is no solution in sight. Long-lived continuously warm and wet atmospheres are difficult to produce and sustain. And a new and emerging idea - that ancient Mars was fundamentally a cold planet with transient episodes of warm wet conditions brought about by external forcings such as impacts, volcanism, and/or orbital changes – also has issues. In this seminar I will review this fascinating topic and discuss some of the recent ideas on how to solve it, the issues they raise, and what I believe are some promising avenues for future research.

Haberle, Robert M.↗

Space-Based Remote Sensing of Atmospheric Aerosols: The Multi-Angle Spectro-Polarimetric Frontier

The review of optical instrumentation, forward modeling, and inverse problem solution for the polarimetric aerosol remote sensing from space is presented. The special emphasis is given to the description of current airborne and satellite imaging polarimeters and also to modern satellite aerosol retrieval algorithms based on the measurements of the Stokes vector of reflected solar light as detected on a satellite. Various underlying surface reflectance models are discussed and evaluated.

polarimetry↗

Maintaining the Continuity of the Global Climate Data Record of Lightning from Space

Lightning is a natural hazard, an indicator of changes in convective storm behavior across multiple spatial and temporal scales, and a major influence on climate-affecting chemicals such as ozone and methane. Lightning also has substantial impacts on the near-space environment. As such, the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) has designated lightning as an Essential Climate Variable (ECV); that is, a measurement that is really important for understanding Earth’s climate. Spaceborne lightning observations are the gold standard for measuring global lightning, as the detection efficiency is more spatially uniform compared to ground-based lightning measurements. In addition, spaceborne is the only practical method for measuring total lightning (i.e., both intracloud and cloud-to-ground) at the global scale, as ground-based networks have limited ability to detect intracloud lightning at long distances (e.g., over oceans, far from land-based sensors). Since 1995, with only a two-year gap (2015-2017), lightning has been observed globally using a combination of Optical Transient Detector (OTD) and Lightning Imaging Sensor (LIS) instruments. However, the year 2023 is the planned end for the International Space Station (ISS) LIS mission, and there is no designated low-Earth orbit (LEO) successor yet identified. Since 2017, geostationary (GEO) observations of lightning have become increasingly available. These include the U.S. Geostationary Lightning Mappers (GLMs), China’s Lightning Mapping Imager (LMI), and Europe’s Lightning Imager (LI). While GEO provides continuous, quasi-hemispheric coverage of lightning and thunderstorms, there are current gaps preventing global coverage, particularly in portions of Asia and the western Pacific, as well as high-latitude regions. Moreover, integration of the GEO constellation into a Climate Data Record (CDR) of lightning is a major challenge only recently begun to be addressed by the WMO. Furthermore, recent work has demonstrated some deficiencies in the global record of lightning from space. For example, small lightning flashes are very common in severe weather, but are difficult to observe using the present set of spaceborne lightning imagers. Moreover, some types of lightning are best observed using frequencies other than the commonly used near-infrared (777-nm), including ultraviolet and the radio spectrum. Finally, it is not possible to assess the vertical distribution of lightning globally, even though this measurement is highly relevant to thunderstorm behavior as well as lightning’s effects on greenhouse gases and the near-space environment. This presentation will provide a current assessment of lightning measurements from space, will identify significant current and future gaps in these observations, and will evaluate potential solutions for improving the overall CDR of global lightning.

Timothy Lang↗

Thermodynamics of Minerals Stable near Earth's Surface

Project “Thermodynamics of Minerals Stable Near the Earth’s Surface” uses specialized calorimetric techniques to obtain new thermochemical data for solid phases of interest in the Earth’s “critical zone”, the near surface regions of the planet most directly affecting and affected by human activity. Major activity was in three areas: manganese oxide materials, aluminum clusters which are precursors to aluminum oxyhydroxide precipitates, and zeolites. All these classes of minerals are potential carriers of heavy metals and radionuclides in the environment, both within their crystal structures and as adsorbed layers or colloids. Their thermodynamic stability, as well as the sequence of stability of competing phases, governs the aqueous solubility of contaminants (and nutrients) in soil, groundwater, and sediments. The thermodynamics of these phases is strongly affected by particle size and crystallinity, since they often occur as very fine particles which do not coarsen in the near-surface environment. Many of these materials exhibit extensive polymorphism, multicomponent solid solution, and variable hydration states. Thus, one must define and systematize important thermodynamic variables, since one cannot make measurements on each and every possible phase, particle size, and composition. A major finding of the work on manganese oxides was labile water-induced oxidation-reduction reactions. These will be studied further by a combination of thermodynamic and synchrotron-based spectroscopic methods, the latter in collaboration with Peggy O’Day at UC Merced. The adsorption of other species, including simple organics, on such redox-active surfaces will also be investigated by a combination of thermochemical and spectroscopic studies. Studies of the energetics of water adsorption on mineral surfaces will be expanded to emphasize the adsorption of CO2 and small organic molecules, relevant to soil, groundwater, and the subsurface environment. Gas adsorption calorimetry, immersion calorimetry, and solution calorimetry will be combined with appropriate analytical and spectroscopic techniques to obtain a comprehensive picture of the interactions and their energetics. The evolution of aqueous aluminum clusters to form aluminum oxyhydroxide precipitates will be studied in detail by a combination of calorimetric and structural methods applied to aqueous samples aged at room temperature. The energetics of new classes of clusters will be explored. The project addresses several common themes relevant to the broad mission of the Department of Energy. Thermochemical data for minerals stable near the Earth’s surface, though still incomplete, are essential for understanding both natural and anthropogenic processes that affect our very existence on this planet. Such data contribute to the fundamental underpinning for mitigation and management strategies for the extraction and use of energy. Fundamental thermodynamic and mechanistic understanding is required to model processes ranging from heavy metal pollution to nuclear waste disposal to climate change.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Arctic Critical Infrastructure: Assessing and Predicting the Risk to Critical Permafrost Infrastructure from Climate Change: A New Thermomechanical Approach

This study presents the development of a computational framework designed to predict the interaction between permafrost and infrastructure, addressing potential failure modes and mitigation strategies in the context of climate change. The framework, rooted in advanced modeling and simulation (mod/sim) techniques, integrates thermomechanical coupling to account for the complex interplay between heat flow, ice content, and mechanical behavior in permafrost. Existing models fail to fully capture these dynamics, particularly as they relate to the effects of ice saturation on structural integrity. Our innovative Arctic Coastal Erosion (ACE) framework fills this gap by coupling thermal and mechanical models to accurately simulate subsidence and deformation in permafrost environments. We applied the ACE framework to a representative runway, demonstrating its capability to predict settlement due to rising temperatures and subsequent permafrost thaw. This proof-of-concept showcases the potential of the framework to evaluate risks to Arctic infrastructure, which supports over four million people and 70% of existing permafrost-based structures. By simulating various infrastructure types and environmental conditions, our research offers insights into failure mechanisms and evaluates structural solutions to mitigate risk. The anticipated deliverables, including a prototype runway exemplar, position this project as a critical advancement in permafrost infrastructure modeling, with applications in national security and resilience planning.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Aqueous Carbon Capture Using Guanidinium-Functionalized Hollow Fiber Sorbent Contactors

As part of the growing suite of technologies aimed at combatting rising temperatures, negative emissions technologies have become a powerful tool in the global effort to minimize the consequences of human-induced climate change. Among these, carbon removal from aqueous sources, which contain much higher carbon concentrations than the atmosphere, remains largely unexplored. Indeed, developing robust and efficient carbon capture materials for usage in complex aqueous environments remains a significant challenge. Here, we explore the potential of functionalizing polyvinylidene fluoride (PVDF) hollow fiber contactors grafted with a guanidinium-derived polymer sorbent for carbon removal from aqueous sources, including saline waters. Computational screening against amine-based analogs is utilized to identify guanidinium as a promising motif for bicarbonate (HCO 3 – ) ions binding. To leverage this finding, synthesis of a guanidinium polymer and subsequent covalent grafting onto PVDF hollow fibers is employed to structured polymer–sorbent–grafted hollow fiber contactors. Our prototype achieves an initial HCO 3 – removal of 34% with an increase to 98% after four cycles. The functionalized fibers demonstrate aqueous stability over 13 adsorption/desorption cycles in model NaHCO 3 solutions where regeneration is facilitated by a mild pH swing. Importantly, the system maintains selective performance in the presence of competitive chloride ions over multiple cycles; carbon removal remained above 10% even at high (10:1) NaCl/NaHCO 3 ratios. These findings demonstrate the feasibility of sorbent-based aqueous carbon removal and highlight its potential as a promising approach for negative emissions.

carbon capture↗

Emerging Energy Market Analysis Initiative, Methodological Framework

Planning and operations of the electric power sector are undergoing radical changes. Climate change mitigation efforts have forced rapid changes to the technology mix. Technologies like wind and solar have experienced rapid growth, while investment in fossil sources has peaked or is declining. These foundational changes are forcing changes to energy systems. Demand-side adoption of electrified technologies, including electric vehicles, is changing load profiles and opening up new avenues for consumer participation in the power systems. The implications of an evolving power system pertain to more than environmental and technical dimensions. Changes to the generation mix and its consequent upstream and downstream impacts such as fuel production have significant and highly concentrated consequences on economies and employment. Shifts towards distributed (or decentralized) generating assets offer the potential to reshape economic and employment opportunities associated with the energy sector across space and socioeconomic groups. The Emerging Energy Market Analysis (EMA) initiative aims to identify sustainable, regionally acceptable, and high-value energy solutions that are secure and equitable. Unlike short-term, least-cost choices that can narrowly account for traditional options, EMA’s focus on emerging energy markets recognizes that new or adapted practices and technologies can alter the frontier of solutions and advance a community’s social, economic, and natural pathways. Such change requires a more comprehensive analysis of societal input, resources, capabilities, and infrastructure. These considerations lay the foundation for community decision-making models that are responsive to community values as well as the history and drivers. The result is a community-based decision and engagement model that will be valuable to decisionmakers and developers of advanced and emerging energy solutions, seeking a social license to operate prior to project development.

21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗

Cloud-Based Solutions for Monitoring Coastal Ecosystems and Prioritization of Restoration Efforts Across Belize

In recent years the availability of automated change detection algorithms in Google Earth Engine has permitted cloud-based processing of large time series of satellite imagery. Models such as the Continuous Change Detection and Classification (CCDC), CCDC-Spectral Mixture Analysis (CCDC-SMA), and Landsat-based Detection of Trends in Disturbance and Recovery (LandTrendr) allow users to exploit decades of Earth Observations (EO) , leveraging the Landsat archive and data from other sensors to detect disturbance in forest ecosystems. Despite the wide adoption of these methods, robust documentation and growing community of users, little research has explored their use in mangrove environments. Mangroves are dynamic environments subject to changes due to not only the natural migration of mudflats but also coastal erosion, urban expansion, aquaculture practices, etc. This work aims to identify best practices for the application of these models to identify and monitor changes in the Belizean mangroves, which experienced an estimated 5.4% decrease in extent between 1980 and 2017 (Cherrington et al. 2020). Partnering directly with the Belizean Forest Department, our team will develop a replicable, efficient methodology to annually update the country’s mangrove extent employing EO-based change detection. This collaboration supports Belize’s marine conservation and climate resilience efforts, such as its Blue Bond agreement with the Nature Conservancy, building on national processes to monitor these critical ecosystems.

Mangroves↗

Cycles-L: A Coupled, 3-D, Land Surface, Hydrologic, and Agroecosystem Landscape Model

Managing landscapes to increase agricultural productivity and environmental stewardship can be informed by spatially-distributed models that operate at spatial and temporal scales that are intervention-relevant. This paper presents Cycles-L, a landscape-scale agroecosystem and hydrologic modeling system, using as a test case a watershed in Pennsylvania. Cycles-L emerges from melding the landscape and hydrology structure of Flux-PIHM, a 3-D land surface hydrologic model, with the agroecosystem processes in the Cycles model. Consequently, Cycles-L can simulate processes affected by topography, soil heterogeneity, and management practices, owing to its physically-based hydrology that can simulate horizontal and vertical transport of solutes with water. The model was tested at a 730-ha experimental watershed within the Mahantango Creek watershed. Cycles-L simulated well stream water and mineral nitrogen discharge (Nash-Sutcliffe coefficient 0.55 and 0.60, respectively) and grain yield (root mean square error 1.2 Mg ha -1 ). Cycles-L outputs are as good or better than those obtained with the uncoupled Flux-PIHM (water discharge) and Cycles (grain yield) models. Modeled spatial patterns of nitrogen fluxes like denitrification illustrate the combined control of crop management and topography. For example, denitrification is almost twice as high when simulated with Cycles-L than when simulated with Cycles 1-D. Due to its spatial and temporal resolution, Cycles-L fills a gap in the availability of models that operate at a scale relevant to evaluate interventions in the landscape. Cycles-L can become a central component in tools for climate change scenario analysis, precision agriculture, precision conservation, and artificial intelligence-based decision support systems.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Water Across Synthetic Aperture Radar Data (WASARD): SAR Water Body Classification for the Open Data Cube

The detection of inland water bodies from Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) data provides a great advantage over water detection with optical data, since SAR imaging is not impeded by cloud cover. Traditional methods of detecting water from SAR data involves using thresholding methods that can be labor intensive and imprecise. This paper describes Water Across Synthetic Aperture Radar Data (WASARD): a method of water detection from SAR data which automates and simplifies the thresholding process using machine learning on training data created from Geoscience Australia’s WOFS algorithm. Of the machine learning models tested, the Linear Support Vector Machine was determined to be optimal, with the option of training using solely the VH polarization or a combination of the VH and VV polarizations. WASARD was able to identify water in the target area with a correlation of 97% with WOFS. Sentinel-1, Open Data Cube, Earth Observations, Machine Learning, Water Detection 1. INTRODUCTION Water classification is an important function of Earth imaging satellites, as accurate remote classification of land and water can assist in land use analysis, flood prediction, climate change research, as well as a variety of agricultural applications [2]. The ability to identify bodies of water remotely via satellite is immensely cheaper than contracting surveys of the areas in question, meaning that an application that can accurately use satellite data towards this function can make valuable information available to nations which would not be able to afford it otherwise. Highly reliable applications for the remote detection of water currently exist for use with optical satellite data such as that provided by LANDSAT. One such application, Geoscience Australia’s Water Observations from Space (WOFS) has already been ported for use with the Open Data Cube [6]. However, water detection using optical data from Landsat is constrained by its relatively long revisit cycle of 16 days [5], and water detection using any optical data is constrained in that it lacks the ability to make accurate classifications through cloud cover [2]. The alternative solution which solves these problems is water detection using SAR data, which images the Earth using cloud-penetrating microwaves. Because of its advantages over optical data, much research has been done into water detection using SAR data. Traditionally, this has been done using the thresholding method, which involves picking a polarization band and labeling all pixels for which this band’s value is below a certain threshold as containing water. The thresholding method works since water tends to return a much lower backscatter value to the satellite than land [1]. However, this method can be flawed since estimating the proper threshold is often imprecise, complicated, and labor intensive for the end user. Thresholding also tends to use data from only one SAR polarization, when a combination of polarizations can provide insight into whether water is present. [2] In order to alleviate these problems, this paper presents an application for the Open Data Cube to detect water from SAR data using support vector machine (SVM) classification. 2. PLATFORM WASARD is an application for the Open Data Cube, a mechanism which provides a simple yet efficient means of ingesting, storing, and retrieving remote sensing data. Data can be ingested and made analysis ready according to whatever specifications the researcher chooses, and easily resampled to artificially alter a scene’s resolution. Currently WASARD supports water detection on scenes from ESA’s Sentinel-1 and JAXA’s ALOS. When testing WASARD, Sentinel-1 was most commonly used due to its relatively high spatial resolution and its rapid 6 day revisit cycle [5]. With minor alterations to the application's code, however, it could support data from other satellites. 3. METHODOLOGY Using supervised classification, WASARD compares SAR data to a dataset pre-classified by WOFS in order to train an SVM classifier. This classifier is then used to detect water in other SAR scenes outside the training set. Accuracy was measured according to the following metrics:  Precision: a measure of what percentage of the points WASARD labels as water are truly water  Recall: a measure of what percentage of the total water cover WASARD was able to identify.  F1 Score: a harmonic average of the precision and recall scores Both precision and recall are calculated at the end of the training phase, when the trained classifier is compared to a testing dataset. Because the WOFS algorithm’s classifications are used as the truth values when training a WASARD classifier, when precision and recall are mentioned in this paper, they are always with respect to the values produced by WOFS on a similar scene of Landsat data, which themselves have a classification accuracy of 97% [6]. Visual representations of water identified by WASARD in this paper were produced using the function wasard_plot(), which is included in WASARD. 3.1 Algorithm Selection The machine learning model used by WASARD is the Linear Support Vector Machine (SVM). This model uses a supervised learning algorithm to develop a classifier, meaning it creates a vector which can be multiplied by the vector formed by the relevant data bands to determine whether a pixel in a SAR scene contains water. This classifier is trained by comparing data points from selected bands in a SAR scene to their respective labels, which in this case are “water” or “not water” as given by the WOFS algorithm. The SVM was selected over the Random Forest model, which outperformed the SVM in training speed, but had a greater classification time and lower accuracy, and the Multilayer Perceptron Artificial Neural Network, which had a slightly higher average accuracy than the SVM, but much greater training and classification times. Figure 1: Visual representation of the SVM Classifier. Each white point represents a pixel in a SAR scene. In Figure 1, the diagonal line separating pixels determined to be water from those determined not to be water represents the actual classification vector produced by the SVM. It is worth noting that once the model has been trained, classification of pixels is done in a similar manner as in the thresholding method. This is especially true if only one band was used to train the model. 3.1 Feature Selection Sentinel-1 collects data from two bands: the Vertical/Vertical polarization (VV) and the Vertical/Horizontal polarization (VH). When 100 SVM classifiers were created for each polarization individually, and for the combination of the two, the following results were achieved: Figure 2: Accuracy of classifiers trained using different polarization bands. Precision and Recall were measured with respect to the values produced by WOFS. Figure 2 demonstrates that using both the VV and VH bands trades slightly lower recall for significantly greater precision when compared with the VH band alone, and that using the VV band alone is inferior in both metrics. WASARD therefore defaults to using both the VV and VH bands, and includes the option to use solely the VH band. The VV polarization’s lower precision compared to the VH polarization is in contrast to results from previous research and may merit further analysis [4]. 3.2 Training a Classifier The steps in training a classifier with WASARD are 1. Selecting two scenes (one SAR, one optical) with the same spatial extents, and acquired close to each other in time, with a preference that the scenes are taken on the same day. 2. Using the WOFS algorithm to produce an array of the detected water in the scene of optical data, to be used as the labels during supervised learning 3. Data points from the selected bands from the SAR acquisition are bundled together into an array with the corresponding labels gathered from WOFS. A random sample with an equal number of points labeled “Water” and “Not Water” is selected to be partitioned into a training and a testing dataset 4. Using Scikit-Learn’s LinearSVC object, the training dataset is used to produce a classifier, which is then tested against the testing dataset to determine its precision and recall The result is a wasard_classifier object, which has the following attributes: 1. f1, recall, and precision: 3 metrics used to determine the classifier’s accuracy 2. Coefficient: Vector which the SVM uses to make its predictions. The classifier detects water when the dot product of the coefficient and the vector formed by the SAR bands is positive 3. Save(): allows a user to save a classifier to the disk in order to use it without retraining 4. wasard_classify(): Classifies an entire xarray of SAR data using the SVM classifier All of the above steps are performed automatically when the user creates a wasard_classifier object. 3.3 Classifying a Dataset Once the classifier has been created, it can be used to detect water in an xarray of SAR data using wasard_classify(). By taking the dot product of the classifier’s coefficients and the vector formed by the selected bands of SAR data, an array of predictions is constructed. A classifier can effectively be used on the same spatial extents as the ones where it was trained, or on any area with a similar landscape. While

Kreiser, Zachary↗

Stereo Camera Deployment in Support of TRACER (Field Campaign Report)

An improved understanding of the salient environmental controls on cloud formation, evolution, and eventual dissipation is critical to address ongoing challenges with cloud process and parameterization representations in global climate and Earth system models. One goal for the recent U.S. Department of Energy Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) user facility’s Tracking Aerosol Convection Interactions Experiment (TRACER) campaign was to collect a comprehensive data set that enabled such convective cloud process studies and key demonstrations for those controls that influenced cloud life cycle (i.e., aerosols, thermodynamics) in the Houston, Texas region. To help accomplish this, ARM instrumentation during TRACER was tasked with tracking a large number of individual, isolated convective cells – and to follow the evolution of these cells at high spatiotemporal resolution to characterize changes in cloud dynamic and microphysical properties. Since Houston experiences a range of convective clouds, it was known that the standard ARM Mobile Facility (AMF) instruments may not be sufficient to completely document initiating, transient, or dissipating low- or shallow-cloud behaviors that were also expected during this campaign (in terms of sensitivity, resolution, and/or operational availability). As one partial solution, a supplemental stereo camera deployment (this sub-campaign) was requested to augment the ARM AMF instrumentation to better address shallow and shallow-to-deep transitional types of cloud process drivers during TRACER (ARM stereo cameras for clouds [STEREOCAM]; Romps and Öktem 2018). The primary scientific focus was the relationships between cloud properties and the ambient conditions, which points to several key TRACER science questions including: ‘What is the relationship between cloud size or updraft intensity to the environmental wind shear and/or humidity?’ Overall, the ARM TRACER stereo camera deployment demonstrated unique effectiveness in observing a wide range of critical shallow, congestus, and transitioning or time-evolving cloud characteristics. The data sets from these cameras include information on the clouds' horizontal dimensions, elevations, and depths, while also enabling potential products for cloud initiation and dissipation rates, and vertical velocities. Stereo cameras simultaneously inform on cloud life cycle stage and spatial properties such as cloud fractional coverage, which should provide complementary information for ARM users when combined with TRACER cloud radars, lidar, and/or other profiling sensors. Moreover, camera products offer large-eddy simulation (LES),-scale-appropriate cloud coverage, depth, and spatial variability estimates, while opening additional avenues to challenge difficult process questions on cloud updrafts/entrainment and their covariability with environmental controls such as wind shear and humidity.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗

Optimal Gas-Electric Energy System Decarbonization Planning

As energy utilities implement climate change mitigation policies, system planners require strategies for achieving affordable emissions reductions. Coordinated planning of electric power and natural gas systems will allow synergistic investments to address cross-sector operational constraints, competing uses for net-zero emissions fuels, and shifts in energy demands across energy carriers. In this study, we develop a novel optimization program that finds the cost-minimizing mix of infrastructure expansion or reduction across gas and electric systems to satisfy sector-specific emissions constraints. Alongside energy supply resources, our framework allows for central-planning of end-use equipment stocks to allow switching between gas and electric appliances upon failure or premature replacement. The proposed model is used to simulate case study scenarios for a benchmark 24-pipe gas network coupled to a 24-node power system test network. We find that electrification of greater than 80% of core gas demands is a component of the least-cost solution for modeled energy systems. Despite this substitution, the gas system is maintained to service difficult-to-electrify customers and to deliver net-zero emissions gas to electricity generators in times of peak electricity demand. Restricting electrification of gas appliances increases reliance on power- to-gas technologies and increases annual costs by 15% in 2040. Neglecting constraints on pipeline blending of hydrogen can produce a misleading result that relies on hydrogen blend fractions of greater than 50%. In all cases, we find the average costs of delivered gas increase nearly 5-fold across the decarbonization transition, highlighting the importance of future work investigating cost-allocation strategies for ensuring an equitable energy transition.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Using Models to Predict the Hygrothermal Performance of Equipment and Piping Insulation

The development of hygrothermal models began in earnest in the 1990s, with the initial emphasis on the performance of building envelope systems. Numerous large-scale building envelope failures associated with water intrusion drove this development. The physical principles of moisture transfer that apply to building envelopes are equally valid for equipment and piping insulation systems. The main advantage of modeling is that carefully characterized models can predict the long-term hygrothermal performance of any system under different climatic and interior conditions. Thermal insulations are commonly used on outdoor equipment and piping for different applications, such as thermal energy conservation and freeze protection. The insulated equipment usually experiences moisture intrusion due to many factors, such as the duration and frequency of moisture exposure, equipment operating temperature, insulation type, exposure temperature, weather conditions, equipment thermal cycling, and weatherproofing condition. Hygrothermal models have been employed to estimate the moisture pickup of insulated equipment and piping systems, as well as the moisture redistribution and subsequent change in thermal performance as these systems become contaminated with moisture. The hygrothermal model provides insights on the parameters influencing the time of wetness, the lateral redistribution of moisture along the pipe away from the leak, and the ease by which water escapes the insulation/jacketing systems. It has been shown that the moisture leak effect decreases rapidly with distance from the leak and that one- and two-dimensional hygrothermal simulations help to identify solutions to reduce conditions that support corrosion under insulation (CUI).

Shrestha, Som↗

Planning Satellite Swarm Measurements for Climate Models: Comparing Dynamic Constraint Processing and MILP Methods

We present D-SHIELD, a challenging climate science application to plan coordinated measurements (observations) for a constellation of satellites, each containing two different sensors, each with 61 pointing angle options. The L-band and P-band radar sensors collect data fed into a soil moisture model which tracks and predicts soil moisture across 1.67 million Ground Positions (GP). Soil moisture is an important predictor of wildfires, and then a predictor of floods, landslides and debris flow after a fire. Each measurement covers multiple GP due to the sensor footprint. Each GP has a "model error" which represents the uncertainty of the the soil moisture state prediction. Model error changes at different rates for each GP as the time since last observation increases and after significant events like rain. The planner's goal is to select measurements which maximize soil moisture model improvement (reduce model uncertainty). This problem is combinatorically explosive, involving many degrees of freedom for planner choices. Good domain heuristics can find solutions within a reasonable time for our application needs but cannot be proven optimal. In this paper we compare two different planning approaches to this problem: Dynamic Constraint Processing (DCP) and Mixed Integer Linear Programming (MILP). We match inputs and metrics for both DCP and MILP algorithms to enable a direct apples-to-apples comparison. We demonstrate and discuss the trades between DCP flexibility and performance vs. MILP's promise of provable optimality.

Rich Levinson↗