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At least 703 records · Page 39

L2 Earth Atmosphere Observatory: Formation Guidance, Metrology and Control Synthesis

The Earth Observatory Formation at L2, a Lagrange libration point, is a unique large aperture (25 m diameter) space telescope concept that will improve the knowledge and understanding of dynamic, chemical and radiative mechanisms that cause changes in the atmosphere, and can lead to the development of models and techniques to predict short and long-term climate changes. The results of this concept definition study show that the telescope concept is feasible, and can have technology readiness in the 2020 time frame. Further advanced development in several subsystems is needed, such as higher efficiency Xenon ion thrusters with throttling, and optical quality large membrane mirror with active shape control. It presents an analysis and solution of guidance, sensing, control, and propulsion problems for a formation of two spacecraft on the Sun-Earth line in the neighborhood of the Sun-Earth L2 point, that observes Earth s atmosphere during continuous solar occultation by the Earth. A system architecture is described for the observatory, and its components that include unique mission specific metrology. The formation must follow a powered trajectory with strictly limited fuel use to observe solar occultation. A configuration of ion thrusters and reaction wheels for translation and attitude control is designed along with algorithms for orbit following and formation control. Simulation results of the orbital and formation dynamics are presented that verify performance of the control systems.

Earth Atmosphere Observatory Formation↗

A scanning radar altimeter for mapping continental topography

Topographic information constitutes a fundamental data set for the Earth sciences. In the geological and geophysical sciences, topography combined with gravitational information provides an important constraint on the structure and rheologic properties of the crust and lithosphere. Detailed topography data can also be used to map offsets associated with faulting and to reveal the effects of tectonic deformation. In the polar regions, elevation data form a crucial but as yet largely unavailable resource for studying ice sheet mass balance and ice flow dynamics. The vast Antarctic ice sheet is the largest fresh water reservoir on Earth and is an important influence on ocean circulation and global climate. However, our knowledge of its stability is so limited that we cannot even specify whether the Antarctic ice sheet is growing or shrinking. It is clear that there is need for high quality global topography data. A summary of potential applications with their resolution requirements is shown.

Dixon, T. H.↗

Satellite Altimetry, Ocean Circulation, and Data Assimilation

Ocean circulation is a critical factor in determining the Earth's climate. Satellite altimetry has been proven a powerful technique for measuring the height of the sea surface for the study of global ocean circulation dynamics. A major objective of my research is to investigate the utility of altimeter data for ocean circulation studies. The 6 years' data record of TOPEX/POSEIDON have been analyzed to study the spatial and temporal characteristics of large-scale ocean variability. A major result obtained in 1998 is the discovery of large-scale oscillations in sea level with a period of 25 days in the Argentine Basin of the South Atlantic Ocean (see diagram). They exhibit a dipole pattern with counterclockwise rotational propagation around the Zapiola Rise (centered at 45S and 317E), a small seamount in the abyssal plain of the basin. The peak-to-trough amplitude is about 10 cm over a distance of 500-1000 km. The amplitude of these oscillations has large seasonal-to-interannual variations. The period and rotational characteristics of these oscillations are remarkably similar to the observations made by two current meters deployed near the ocean bottom in the region. What TOPEX/POSEIDON has detected apparently are manifestations of the movement of the entire water column (barotropic motion). The resultant transport variation is estimated to be about 50 x 10(exp 6) cubic M/S, which is about 50% of the total water transport in the region. Preliminary calculations suggest that these oscillations are topographically trapped waves. A numerical model of the South Atlantic is used to investigate the nature of and causes for these waves. A very important property of sea surface height is that it is directly related to the surface geostrophic velocity, which is related to deep ocean circulation through the density field. Therefore altimetry observations are not only useful for determining the surface circulation but also for revealing information about the deep ocean. Another objective of my research is to investigate the extent of information one can infer about the deep ocean from altimetric observations. The approach is data assimilation by ocean models. The objective is to develop a modeling/data assimilation system that will produce estimates of the 3-dimensional state of the ocean for the entire duration of the TOPEX/POSEIDON Mission.

Fu, Lee-Lueng↗

Techniques of Validation of Aerosol and Water Vapor Retrievals From MODIS

Aerosols are extremely important for global climate studies and modeling in the quest to characterize the global radiation budget and forcing. The physical characteristics, composition, abundance, and spatial distribution and dynamics of aerosols are still very poorly known. Aerosol column optical thickness and other parameters as well as column precipitable water vapor amount are some of the main atmospheric parameters retrieved from the MODIS instrument on board the Terra satellite. To ensure the reliability of these parameters, we have embarked on a very massive validation effort. This involves cross correlation between the retrievals from the satellite data and those obtained from sunphotometer measurements at a large number of ground stations spread throughout the globe. Notable among these ground stations is a large network of over 100 stations coordinated under the Aerosol Robotic Network (AERONET) project. Whereas MODIS retrieves the aerosol parameters throughout the globe once or twice a day during the daytime, the ground measurements cover only discrete locations of the earth, though the retrievals are done several times a day. We have devised a method to. match the MODIS and ground retrievals through spatial statistics for the MODIS data and temporal statistics for the ground data. This has produced good comparisons and has enabled the validation of MODIS aerosol and water vapor retrievals at over 100 discrete locations in various parts of the earth both over the land and over the ocean. Currently, the validation statistical data is produced routinely by the MODIS aerosol group and is even available not only for validation but also for use by the science community for short and long term studies at various parts of the earth. One important advantage is that the system can be expanded to incorporate more locations where ground measurements and other studies may be conducted at any time during the lifetime of MODIS.

Ichoku, Charles↗

Earth Rotation Dynamics: Review and Prospects

Modem space geodetic measurement of Earth rotation variations, particularly by means of the VLBI technique, has over the years allowed studies of Earth rotation dynamics to advance in ever-increasing precision, accuracy, and temporal resolution. A review will be presented on our understanding of the geophysical and climatic causes, or "excitations", for length-of-day change, polar motion, and nutations. These excitations sources come from mass transports that constantly take place in the Earth system comprised of the atmosphere, hydrosphere, cryosphere, lithosphere, mantle, and the cores. In this sense, together with other space geodetic measurements of time-variable gravity and geocenter motion, Earth rotation variations become a remote-sensing tool for the integral of all mass transports, providing valuable information about the latter on a wide range of spatial and temporal scales. Future prospects with respect to geophysical studies with even higher accuracy and resolution will be discussed.

Chao, Benjamin F.↗

Earth Rotational Variations Excited by Geophysical Fluids

Modern space geodetic measurement of Earth rotation variations, particularly by means of the VLBI technique, has over the years allowed studies of Earth rotation dynamics to advance in ever-increasing precision, accuracy, and temporal resolution. A review will be presented on our understanding of the geophysical and climatic causes, or "excitations". for length-of-day change, polar motion, and nutations. These excitations sources come from mass transports that constantly take place in the Earth system comprised of the atmosphere, hydrosphere, cryosphere, lithosphere, mantle, and the cores. In this sense, together with other space geodetic measurements of time-variable gravity and geocenter motion, Earth rotation variations become a remote-sensing tool for the integral of all mass transports, providing valuable information about the latter on a wide range of spatial and temporal scales. Future prospects with respect to geophysical studies with even higher accuracy and resolution will be discussed.

Chao, Benjamin F.↗

Interannual Variation in Phytoplankton Class-specific Primary Production at a Global Scale

Phytoplankton is responsible for over half of the net primary production on earth. The knowledge on the contribution of various phytoplankton groups to the total primary production is still poorly understood. Data from satellite observations suggest that for upwelling regions, photosynthetic rates by microplankton is higher than that of nanoplankton but that when the spatial extent is considered, the production by nanoplankton is comparable or even larger than microplankton. Here, we used the NASA Ocean Biogeochemical Model (NOBM) combined with remote sensing data via assimilation to evaluate the contribution of 4 phytoplankton groups to the total primary production. Globally, diatoms were the group that contributed the most to the total phytoplankton production (approx. 50%) followed by coccolithophores and chlorophytes. Primary production by diatoms was highest in high latitude (>45 deg) and in major upwelling systems (Equatorial Pacific and Benguela system). We assessed the effects of climate variability on the class-specific primary production using global (i.e. Multivariate El Nino Index, MEI) and 'regional' climate indices (e.g. Southern Annular Mode (SAM), Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) and North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO)). Most interannual variability occurred in the Equatorial Pacific and was associated with climate variability. These results provide a modeling and data assimilation perspective to phytoplankton partitioning of primary production and contribute to our understanding of the dynamics of the carbon cycle in the oceans at a global scale.

OBM↗

An Intercomparison of Changes Associated with Earth's Lower Tropospheric Temperature Using Traditional and AMIP-Style Reanalyses

Reanalyses have become an integral tool for evaluating regional and global climate variations, and an important component of this is modifications to the energy budget. Reductions in Arctic Sea ice extent has induced an albedo feedback, causing the Arctic to warm more rapidly than anywhere else in the world, referred to as "Arctic Amplification." This has been demonstrated by observations and numerous reanalyses, including the Modern Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications, Version 2 (MERRA-2). However, the Arctic Amplification signal is non-existent in a ten member ensemble of the MERRA-2 Atmospheric Model Intercomparison Project (M2AMIP) simulations, using the same prescribed climate forcing, including Sea Surface Temperature (SST) and ice. An evaluation of the temperature tendency within the lower troposphere due to radiation, moisture, and dynamics as well as the surface energy budget in MERRA-2 and M2AMIP will demonstrate that despite identical prescribed SSTs and sea ice in both versions, enhanced warming in the Arctic in MERRA-2 is in response to the analysis increment tendency due to temperature observations. Furthermore, the role of boundary conditions, model biases and changes in observing systems on the Arctic Amplification signal will be assessed. Literature on the topic of Arctic Amplification demonstrates that the enhanced warming begins in the mid-1990s. Anomalously warm Arctic SST in the early time period of MERRA-2 can mute the trend in Arctic lower troposphere temperature without the constraint of observations in M2AMIP. Additionally, MERRA-2 uses three distinct datasets of SST and sea ice concentration, which also plays a role.

Arcti↗

Connections Between Upper Tropospheric and Lower Stratospheric Circulation Responses to Increased Co 2

There are a myriad of ways atmospheric circulation responds to increased CO 2 . In the troposphere, the region of the tropical upwelling narrows, the Hadley Cells expand, and the upper level subtropical zonal winds that comprise the subtropical jet strengthen. In the stratosphere, the tropical upwelling narrows and strengthens, enhancing the Brewer-Dobson Circulation. Despite the robustness of these projections, dynamical coupling between the features remains unclear. In this study, we analyze output from the NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) ModelE coupled climate model to examine any connection between the upper tropospheric and lower stratospheric circulation by considering the features’ seasonality, hemispheric asymmetry, scaling, and transient response to a broad range of CO 2 forcings. We find that a narrowing and strengthening of upper tropospheric upwelling occurs with a strengthening of the subtropical jet. There is also a narrowing and strengthening of lower stratospheric upwelling that is related to an equatorward shift in critical latitude for wave breaking and the associated strengthening of the subtropical lower stratosphere’s zonal winds. However, the stratospheric responses display different seasonal, hemispheric, and transient patterns than those in the troposphere, indicating independent circulation changes between the two domains.

Molly E. Menzel↗

Leaf Functional Traits in Relation to Species Composition in an Arctic–Alpine Tundra Grassland

The relict arctic–alpine tundra provides a natural laboratory to study the potential impacts of climate change and anthropogenic disturbance on tundra vegetation. The Nardus stricta-dominated relict tundra grasslands in the Krkonoše Mountains have experienced shifting species dynamics over the past few decades. Changes in species cover of the four competing grasses—Nardus stricta, Calamagrostis villosa, Molinia caerulea, and Deschampsia cespitosa—were successfully detected using orthophotos. Leaf functional traits (anatomy/morphology, element accumulation, leaf pigments, and phenolic compound profiles), were examined in combination with in situ chlorophyll fluorescence in order to shed light on their respective spatial expansions and retreats. Our results suggest a diverse phenolic profile in combination with early leaf expansion and pigment accumulation has aided the expansion of C. villosa, while microhabitats may drive the expansion and decline of D. cespitosa in different areas of the grassland. N. stricta—the dominant species—is retreating, while M. caerulea did not demonstrate significant changes in territory between 2012 and 2018. We propose that the seasonal dynamics of pigment accumulation and canopy formation are important factors when assessing potential “spreader” species and recommend that phenology be taken into account when monitoring grass species using remote sensing.

Lena Hunt↗

A GEO Hyperspectral Mission For Continental-Scale Carbon Cycle Observations

For both terrestrial and ocean carbon cycle science objectives, a hyperspectral geostationary sensor should enable the development of new remote sensing measurements for important but as yet unobservable variables, and with the overall goal of linking both terrestrial and ocean carbon cycle processes to climate variability. For terrestrial research, accurate estimates of carbon, water and energy (CWE) exchange between the terrestrial biosphere and atmosphere are needed to identify the geographical locations of carbon sources/sinks and to improve regional climate models and global climate change assessments. It is an enormous challenge to estimate CWE exchange from the infrequent temporal coverage provided by most polar-orbiting satellites, and without benefit of spectral indices that capture vegetation responses to stress conditions that down-regulate photosynthesis. Physiological status can be better assessed with spectral indices based on continuous, narrow (5 nm) bands, as can seasonal and annual terrestrial productivity. For coastal and ocean constituents, narrow-band observations in the ultraviolet and visible are essential to investigate the variability, dynamics and biogeochemical cycles of the world s coastal and open ocean regions, which will in turn help in measuring ocean productivity and predicting the variability of Ocean carbon uptake and its role in climate change scenarios. The GSFC Carbon Team has been pursuing a geostationary hyperspectral instrument, which would revolutionize our knowledge of biological processes on land, in the ocean, and along the coast by providing multiple, diurnal coverage. Preliminary studies in Goddard's Instrument Synthesis and Analysis Laboratory (ISAL) indicate that we can meet many of our science requirements: full spectral coverage (360-1000 nm); narrow bandwidths (5-10 nm); adequate ground resolution (100-200 m); and continental-scale coverage 4-6 times per day; all the while achieving a signal to noise ratio of between 500 and 1000 to 1. However, an innovative and bold focal plane design and a large mirror (1.8 meter diameter) would be required. The development of our science requirements and the results of the initial design study will be presented as well as our most recent technological developments.

Gervin, Janette C.↗

Development of the Joint NASA/NCAR General Circulation Model

The Data Assimilation Office at NASA/Goddard Space Flight Center is collaborating with NCAR/CGD in an ambitious proposal for the development of a unified climate, numerical weather prediction, and chemistry transport model which is suitable for global data assimilation of the physical and chemical state of the Earth's atmosphere. A prototype model based on the NCAR CCM3 physics and the NASA finite-volume dynamical core has been built. A unique feature of the NASA finite-volume dynamical core is its advanced tracer transport algorithm on the floating Lagrangian control-volume coordinate. The model currently has a highly idealized ozone production/loss chemistry derived from the observed 2D (latitude-height) climatology of the recent decades. Nevertheless, the simulated horizontal wave structure of the total ozone is in good qualitative agreement with the observed (TOMS). Long term climate simulations and NWP experiments have been carried out. Current up to date status and futur! e plan will be discussed in the conference.

Lin, S.-J.↗

Section on Observed Impacts on El Nino

Agricultural applications of El Nino forecasts are already underway in some countries and need to be evaluated or re-evaluated. For example, in Peru, El Nino forecasts have been incorporated into national planning for the agricultural sector, and areas planted with rice and cotton (cotton being the more drought-tolerant crop) are adjusted accordingly. How well are this and other such programs working? Such evaluations will contribute to the governmental and intergovernmental institutions, including the Inter-American Institute for Global Change Research and the US National Ocean and Atmospheric Agency that are fostering programs to aid the effective use of forecasts. As El Nino climate forecasting grows out of the research mode into operational mode, the research focus shifts to include the design of appropriate modes of utilization. Awareness of and sensitivity to the costs of prediction errors also grow. For example, one major forecasting model failed to predict the very large El Nino event of 1997, when Pacific sea-surface temperatures were the highest on record. Although simple correlations between El Nino events and crop yields may be suggestive, more sophisticated work is needed to understand the subtleties of the interplay among the global climate system, regional climate patterns, and local agricultural systems. Honesty about the limitations of an forecast is essential, especially when human livelihoods are at stake. An end-to-end analysis links tools and expertise from the full sequence of ENSO cause-and-effect processes. Representatives from many disciplines are needed to achieve insights, e.g, oceanographers and atmospheric scientists who predict El Nino events, climatologists who drive global climate models with sea-surface temperature predictions, agronomists who translate regional climate connections in to crop yield forecasts, and economists who analyze market adjustments to the vagaries of climate and determine the value of climate forecasts. Methods include historical studies to understand past patterns and to test hindcasts of the prediction tools, crop modeling, spatial analysis and remote sensing. This research involves expanding, deepening, and applying the understanding of physical climate to the fields of agronomy and social science; and the reciprocal understanding of crop growth and farm economics to climatology. Delivery of a regional climate forecast with no information about how the climate forecast was derived limits its effectiveness. Explanation of a region's major climate driving forces helps to place a seasonal forecast in context. Then, a useful approach is to show historical responses to previous El Nino events, and projections, with uncertainty intervals, of crop response from dynamic process crop growth models. Regional ID forecasts should be updated with real-time weather conditions. Since every El Nino event is different, it is important to track, report and advise on each new event as it unfolds. The stability of human enterprises depends on understanding both the potentialities and the limits of predictability. Farmers rely on past experience to anticipate and respond to fluctuations in the biophysical systems on which their livelihoods depend. Now scientists are improving their ability to predict some major elements of climate variability. The improvements in the reliability of El Nino forecasts are encouraging, but seasonal forecasts for agriculture are not, and will probably never be completely infallible, due to the chaotic nature of the climate system. Uncertainties proliferate as we extend beyond Pacific sea-surface temperatures to climate teleconnections and agricultural outcomes. The goal of this research is to shed as a clear light as possible on these inherent uncertainties and thus to contribute to the development of appropriate responses to El Nino and other seasonal forecasts for a range of stakeholders, which, ultimately, includes food consumers everywhere.

Rosenzweig, Cynthia↗

The scale and persistence of soil moisture anomalies as simulated in a global model

Short term variability of climate is intimately connected with soil moisture variability. Soil moisture provides the storage and subsequent return to the atmosphere, through evaporation and transpiration, of precipitation anomalies over land. Global Circulation Model (GCM) simulations enable consistent identification of correlations and dynamical connections between the hydrologic variables, many of which are incompletely observed. One way to facilitate understanding with these increasingly intricate models is to perform sensitivity studies in which a boundary condition or process is prescribed. In this study we will report on a sensitivity study in which a GCM with a sophisticated land surface representation is used to investigate soil moisture variability in the model climate. The simulations to be used in this study were made at R15 resolution (approximately 4.5 deg latitude x 7.5 deg longitude) with prescribed sea surface temperatures (SST) in the GENESIS model (Thompson and Pollard, 1994), which is coupled to a Land Surface Transfer model (LSX) at 2 deg x 2 deg resolution (Pollard and Thompson, 1994). All the results represented here were taken from the monthly averages of the model results. The LSX model accounts for the physical effects of vegetation with two layers specified at each grid point. Vegetation attributes such as leaf area indices, fractional cover, leaf albedos, etc., were taken from the global dataset in Dorman and Sellers (1989). A six-layer soil model extends from the surface to 4.25 m depth. SST's were prescribed in two ten year experiments using monthly SST values with the daily value being interpolated from the nearest two months. In the first experiment monthly climatological values were used, and in the second, the Atmospheric Model Intercomparison Project (AMIP) observed SST's for the years 1979 through 1988 were used (Gates, 1992). Thus, the former experiment gives a measure of the intrinsic model variability, to be compared with that of the latter experiment, which includes month-to-month variability due to ocean forcing.

Fitzjarrald, D.↗

Future Changes in Major Stratospheric Warmings in CCMI Models

Major stratospheric warmings (MSWs) are one of the most important phenomena of wintertime Arctic stratospheric variability. They consist of a warming of the Arctic stratosphere and a deceleration of the polar night jet, triggered by an anomalously high injection of tropospheric wave activity into the stratosphere. Due to the relevance and the impact of MSWs on the tropospheric circulation, several model studies have investigated their potential responses to climate change. However, a wide range of results has been obtained, extending from a future increase in the frequency of MSWs to a decrease. These discrepancies might be explained by different factors such as a competition of radiative and dynamical contributors with opposite effects on the Arctic polar vortex, biases of models to reproduce the related processes, or the metric chosen for the identification of MSWs. In this study, future changes in wintertime Arctic stratospheric variability are examined in order to obtaina more precise picture of future changes in the occurrence of MSWs. In particular, transient REFC2 simulations of different CCMs involved in the Chemistry Climate Model Initiative (CCMI) are used. These simulations extend from 1960 to 2100 and include forcings by halogens and greenhouse gases following the specifications of the CCMI-REF-C2 scenario. Sea surface temperatures (SSTs) and sea-ice distributions are either prescribed from coupled climate model integrations or calculated internally in the case of fully coupled atmosphere-ocean CCMs. Potential changes in the frequency and main characteristics of MSWs in the future are investigated with special focus on the dependence of the results on the criterion for the identification of MSWs and the tropospheric forcing of these phenomena.

Chemistry-Climate Modeling↗

Climatic consequences of observed ozone loss in the 1980s: Relevance to the greenhouse problem

Recently published findings using satellite and ground-based observations indicate a large winter and summertime decrease in the column abundance of ozone at high and middle latitudes during the last decade. Using a simple ozone depletion profile reflecting the observed decrease in ozone column abundance, Ramaswamy et al. (1992) showed that the negative radiative forcing that results from the ozone decrease between 1979 and 1990 approximately balanced the greenhouse climate forcing due to the chlorofluorocarbons emitted during the same period. Here, we extend the forcing analyses by calculating the equilibrium surface temperature response explicitly, using an updated version of the Atmospheric and Environmental Research two-dimensional radiative-dynamical seasonal model. The calculated steady state responses suggest that the surface cooling due to the ozone depletion in the lower stratosphere offsets about 30% of the surface warming due to greenhouse gases emitted during the same decade. The temperature offset is roughly a factor of 2 larger than the corresponding offset obtained from forcing intercomparisons. This result appears to be related to the climate feedback mechanisms operating in the model troposphere, most notably that associated with atmospheric meridional heat transport. Thus a comprehensive assessment of ozone change effects on the predicted greenhouse warming cannot be accomplished based on forcing evaluations alone. Our results also show that calculations adopting a seasonally and latitudinally dependent ozone depletion profile produce a negative forcing about 50% smaller than that calculated for the depletion profile used by Ramaswamy et al. (1992).

Molnar, G. I.↗

Recent advances in radar remote sensing of forest

On a global scale, forests represent most of the terrestrial standing biomass (80 to 90 percent). Thus, natural and anthropogenic change in forest covers can have major impacts not only on local ecosystems but also on global hydrologic, climatic, and biogeochemical cycles that involve exchange of energy, water, carbon, and other elements between the earth and atmosphere. Quantitative information on the state and dynamics of forest ecosystems and their interactions with the global cycles appear necessary to understand how the earth works as a natural system. The information required includes the lateral and vertical distribution of forest cover, the estimates of standing biomass (woody and foliar volume), the phenological and environmental variations and disturbances (clearcutting, fires, flood), and the longer term variations following deforestation (regeneration, successional stages). To this end, seasonal, annual, and decadal information is necessary in order to separate the long term effects in the global ecosystem from short term seasonal and interannual variations. Optical remote sensing has been used until now to study the forest cover at local, regional, and global scales. Radar remote sensing, which provides recent SAR data from space on a regular basis, represents an unique means of consistently monitoring different time scales, at all latitudes and in any atmospheric conditions. Also, SAR data have shown the potential to detect several forest parameters that cannot be inferred from optical data. The differences--and complementarity--lie in the penetration capabilities of SAR data and their sensitivity to dielectric and geometric properties of the canopy volume, whereas optical data are sensitive to the chemical composition of the external foliar layer of the vegetation canopy.

Letoan, Thuy↗

Remote Sensing in Archeology: Classifying Bajos of the Paten, Guatemala

This project focuses on the adaptation of human populations to their environments from prehistoric times to the present. It emphasizes interdisciplinary research to develop ecological baselines through the use of remotely sensed imagery, in situ field work, and the modeling of human population dynamics. It utilizes cultural and biological data from dated archaeological sites to assess the subsistence and settlement patterns of human societies in response to changing climatic and environmental conditions. The utilization of remote sensing techniques in archaeology is relatively new, exciting, and opens many doors.

Lowry, James D., Jr.↗