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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 703 records · Page 39
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2023

The Role of In-Cloud Wet Removal in Simulating Aerosol Vertical Profiles and Cloud Radiative Forcing

Among the physical processes controlling aerosol vertical profiles, in-cloud wet removal is of utmost importance while its representation in global climate models (GCMs) is crude. In this study, we implement into the Community Atmosphere Model version 6 (CAM6) a physically based aerosol wet removal parameterization scheme that explicitly treats aerosol activation, removal and resuspension. Evaluation against in-situ observations shows that the default scheme substantially overestimates the upper tropospheric black carbon (BC) and sea salt mass. Our physically based scheme reduces BC and sea salt mass by a factor of 10 and 1,000, respectively, in better agreement with observations. Also, the new scheme slightly increases number of aerosol particles between 12 nm and 4.8 μm in diameter, thereby mitigating the aerosol number underestimation in the default scheme. Our new scheme reduces the overestimation of coarse-mode aerosol (0.5–4.8 μm) number. Overall, the aerosol property changes (mass decrease and number increase) reduce the cloud condensation nuclei (CCN) concentration at low supersaturation (i.e., 0.02% and 0.1%), and increase CCN at high supersaturations (i.e., 0.5% and 1%). Consequently, the global annual mean cloud liquid water path increases by 1.89 g m -2 and the ice water path increases by 0.51 g m -2 . The global annual mean shortwave, longwave, and net cloud radiative forcing change by -1.06, 0.57, and -0.48 W m -2 , respectively. Further improvement is needed to reflect the real physics that the removal efficiencies for aerosol mass and number are disproportionate and to advect cloud-borne (activated) aerosols for a complete aerosol lifecycle.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

NSA Site Science: Use of ARM Observations from Northern Alaska to Evaluate and Improve Prediction Capabilities

The Arctic is warming at a rate nearly double that of the rest of the planet, leading to profound changes in atmospheric, oceanic, and ice processes. The U.S. Department of Energy's (DOE) Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) user facility has played a significant role in Arctic research, operating observatories in Alaska's North Slope for over 25 years. These observatories provide a rich, and wide-reaching dataset that offers insight into atmospheric processes in northern Alaska. This report details the results of a nine-year research project (2015–2024) supported by the DOE Atmospheric Systems Research (ASR) program, that leverages data from ARM’s deployment of observing facilities at Utqiaġvik (known as the North Slope of Alaska, or NSA, site) and Oliktok Point, Alaska. The project was conducted in two phases: - Phase 1 (2015–2019): Focused on understanding key atmospheric processes at Oliktok Point, including cloud formation, high-latitude precipitation, aerosol-cloud interactions, and cloud properties. - Phase 2 (2019–2024): Extended the research to the broader North Slope region, using data from both Oliktok Point and Utqiaġvik. Topics explored included surface energy budgets, atmospheric stability, ice nucleation processes, and microphysics in Arctic clouds. The project resulted in numerous research products, including 50 peer-reviewed publications and dissertations, 169 presentations, and 10 data products. These products cover a variety of topics, including: - Cloud Macro- and Microphysical Properties: Arctic clouds play a crucial role in energy transfer, and accurate representation in models is critical. The study explored cloud transitions, ice crystal shapes, and dual-wavelength radar data to understand ice crystal habits and size distributions. - Aerosol Properties and Processes: The team examined aerosol sources in the Arctic, including industrial emissions and natural sources. Observations showed significant spatial gradients in aerosol concentrations due to human activities and wildfire smoke. The influence of aerosols on cloud formation and the surface energy budget was also assessed. - Aerosol-Cloud Interactions: Research revealed that aerosols might suppress cloud ice production, affecting cloud radiative forcing and precipitation. The impact of local industrial emissions on cloud properties was also investigated. - Contextualizing the North Slope of Alaska in the context of the broader Arctic: To understand broader trends, the project evaluated large-scale circulation patterns and the influence of weather systems on the Arctic. Studies indicated that large-scale processes play a significant role in temperature patterns and the timing of snowmelt. - Advancing ARM Observational and Modeling Capabilities: The project developed new radar data products and advanced measurement techniques, including clutter mitigation and drizzle detection. Uncrewed aerial systems (UAS) and tethered balloon systems (TBS) were deployed to gather detailed atmospheric data. Additionally, the project supported 10 early career scientists, providing training and mentorship to undergraduate interns, graduate students, postdoctoral researchers, and early career researchers. These efforts contributed to the advancement of ARM research capabilities and fostered a new generation of scientists skilled in Arctic atmospheric research. Ultimately, this ASR-supported project has provided valuable insights into Arctic atmospheric processes and their broader climate implications. Recommendations for future work include continuing support for long-term observing at Arctic locations to foster additional research, further exploration of aerosol-cloud interactions and the potential impacts of enhanced industrialization of the Arctic, and expanded use of uncrewed systems to gather data in this remote and harsh environment. Additionally, the data products developed by this work, and the data products developed through the ARM infrastructure, leave a treasure-trove of additional information that should be explored for many years to come to gain additional insight into physical processes in the Arctic atmosphere that drive the rapid changes occurring in at high latitudes and their global impact.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2026

American cities in a time of global environmental change: the case of the Baltimore Social-Environmental Collaborative

The Baltimore Social-Environmental Collaborative (BSEC) Urban Integrated Field Laboratory seeks a new paradigm for urban climate research. Motivated by deep uncertainties in urban climate and the future of urban systems, BSEC works collaboratively across institutions and stakeholder groups to co-generate the science needed to advance energy security and resilience to extreme events across the city of Baltimore, Maryland, USA, and to do so in a manner that can inform similar efforts in other cities. BSEC begins with stakeholder priorities (health, affordable energy, etc) and designs observation networks and models to deliver climate science to address them. This takes the form of an iterative collaborative cycle, in which an initial research strategy is repeatedly updated in conversation with community partners, and researchers and stakeholders learn from each other. To date, this cycle has included multiple rounds of collaborative deliberation on urban heat mitigation, in which a multicriteria decision tool has been updated with more community-relevant spatial structure and modified optimization metrics. The guiding objective of this cycle is to inform potential ‘secure and resilient pathways’ for energy and infrastructure. In doing so, BSEC addresses fundamental urban science questions in natural and social sciences. It also tests our ability to integrate this science in a manner that advances participatory decision-making for urban resilience.

climate↗
DOE OSTI2025

Active and passive cooling approaches for a Southern California residential community

This study assesses cooling strategies in a low-income community in Southern California that lacks air conditioning and struggles with heat and air pollution. We used an urban building energy model and an electric distribution system model to evaluate active and passive cooling measures. The most effective space cooling measures were high-performance air-source heat pumps, cool coatings, window films, and harnessing the space cooling effect from heat pump water heaters. The results show that combining heat pump water heaters with window films and cool coatings reduces heat index hazard hours within buildings by 95 % to 99 % but increases total energy costs (equipment costs plus changes in utility bills) by 20 % to 60 % where the higher end includes building electrical upgrades. These measures also led to increased space heater use during colder months to avoid overcooling. Replacing conventional heaters with air source heat pumps eliminated unsafe indoor temperatures and reduced total energy use, but increased cost by 125 % to 150 %. In total, using heat pumps for space and water heating could reduce primary energy use by up to 57 %. The higher cost of active and passive cooling measures can be mitigated by existing and emerging incentive programs, especially those that support heat pumps. Electric distribution upgrades to support community electrification are estimated to increase utility costs by $\$$25 to $\$$40 per ratepayer per year. The results underscore the potential and challenges of adapting building infrastructure in communities at risk from climate and environmental stressors.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
DOE OSTI2021

Quantifying microbial control of soil organic matter dynamics at macrosystem scales

Soil organic matter (SOM) stocks, decomposition and persistence are largely the product of controls that act locally. Yet the controls are shaped and interact at multiple spatiotemporal scales, from which macrosystem patterns in SOM emerge. Theory on SOM turnover recognizes the resulting spatial and temporal conditionality in the effect sizes of controls that play out across macrosystems, and couples them through evolutionary and community assembly processes. For example, climate history shapes plant functional traits, which in turn interact with contemporary climate to influence SOM dynamics. Selection and assembly also shape the functional traits of soil decomposer communities, but it is less clear how in turn these traits influence temporal macrosystem patterns in SOM turnover. Here, we review evidence that establishes the expectation that selection and assembly should generate decomposer communities across macrosystems that have distinct functional effects on SOM dynamics. Representation of this knowledge in soil biogeochemical models affects the magnitude and direction of projected SOM responses under global change. Yet there is high uncertainty and low confidence in these projections. To address these issues, we make the case that a coordinated set of empirical practices are required which necessitate (1) greater use of statistical approaches in biogeochemistry that are suited to causative inference; (2) long-term, macrosystem-scale, observational and experimental networks to reveal conditionality in effect sizes, and embedded correlation, in controls on SOM turnover; and (3) use of multiple measurement grains to capture local- and macroscale variation in controls and outcomes, to avoid obscuring causative understanding through data aggregation. Here, when employed together, along with process-based models to synthesize knowledge and guide further empirical work, we believe these practices will rapidly advance understanding of microbial controls on SOM and improve carbon cycle projections that guide policies on climate adaptation and mitigation.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Earlier emergence of a temperature response to mitigation by filtering annual variability

The rate of global surface warming is crucial for tracking progress towards global climate targets, but is strongly influenced by interannual-to-decadal variability, which precludes rapid detection of the temperature response to emission mitigation. Here we use a physics based Green’s function approach to filter out modulations to global mean surface temperature from sea-surface temperature (SST) patterns, and show that it results in an earlier emergence of a response to strong emissions mitigation. For observed temperatures, we find a filtered 2011–2020 surface warming rate of 0.24 °C per decade, consistent with long-term trends. Unfiltered observations show 0.35 °C per decade, partly due to the El Nino of 2015–2016. Pattern filtered warming rates can become a strong tool for the climate community to inform policy makers and stakeholder communities about the ongoing and expected climate responses to emission reductions, provided an effort is made to improve and validate standardized Green’s functions.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

A multifunctional copper single-atom electrocatalyst aerogel for smart sensing and producing ammonia from nitrate

Despite modern chemistry’s success in providing affordable fertilizers for feeding the population and supporting the ammonia industry, ineffective nitrogen management has led to pollution of water resources and air, contributing to climate change. Here, we report a multifunctional copper single-atom electrocatalyst-based aerogel (Cu SAA) that integrates the multiscale structure of coordinated single-atomic sites and 3D channel frameworks. The Cu SAA demonstrates an impressive faradaic efficiency of 87% for NH 3 synthesis, as well as remarkable sensing performance with detection limits of 0.15 ppm for NO 3 − and 1.19 ppm for NH 4 + . These multifunctional features enable precise control and conversion of nitrate to ammonia in the catalytic process, facilitating accurate regulation of the ammonium and nitrate ratios in fertilizers. We thus designed the Cu SAA into a smart and sustainable fertilizing system (SSFS), a prototype device for on-site automatic recycling of nutrients with precisely controlled nitrate/ammonium concentrations. The SSFS represents a forward step toward sustainable nutrient/waste recycling, thus permitting efficient nitrogen utilization of crops and mitigating pollutant emissions. This contribution exemplifies how electrocatalysis and nanotechnology can be potentially leveraged to enable sustainable agriculture.

Science & Technology - Other Topics↗
DOE OSTI2022

CCUS deployment under the U.S. 45Q tax credit and adaptation by other North American Governments: MARKAL modeling results

In 2018, U.S. Congress passed the Bipartisan Budget Act, known as 45Q [H.R. 3761], expanding the corporate income tax credit for carbon capture utilization and storage (CCUS). 45Q provides a performance-based tax credit for carbon capture projects of $30/ton of carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) (tCO 2 ) for anthropogenic CO 2 going to enhanced oil recovery (EOR), and $50/tCO 2 if going to straight storage. There are several conditions; for example, there is a 12-year time limit on tax credits for a new plant that commences construction before 2024 [H.R. 3761]. Here, this study aims to test the incremental impact of the 45Q tax credits on CCUS deployment, CO 2 -EOR, and power generation technological changes for North American (the United States, Canada, and Mexico) long-term energy system development. The scenario results show that offering a 12-year CO 2 storage subsidy provides the motivation needed for CCUS investment during the 12-year subsidy period, and the benefits of such investment can be sustained over the 40-year lifetime under CO 2 taxation. The modeling results show that carbon capture generation replaces uncontrolled fossil-fueled power, not new or existing renewables, so power generation and corresponding emission reductions from renewables remain unaffected by the availability of 45Q in the United States. Our scenario with CCUS technological learning indicates that CCUS could play a very important role under stringent environmental constraints. Thus, accelerated support and funding for the large-scale CCUS demonstrations is important for the execution of both short- and long-term climate mitigation goals. Given the significant role of the United States, Canada, and Mexico on the world energy system, our results represent an important contribution to the study of global energy trends.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2022

International assessment of priority environmental issues for land-based and offshore wind energy development

Non-technical summary A substantial increase in wind energy deployment worldwide is required to help achieve international targets for decreasing global carbon emissions and limiting the impacts of climate change. In response to global concerns regarding the environmental effects of wind energy, the International Energy Agency Wind Technical Collaborative Program initiated Task 34 – Working Together to Resolve Environmental Effects of Wind Energy or WREN. As part of WREN, this study performed an international assessment with the global wind energy and environmental community to determine priority environmental issues over the next 5‒10 years and help support collaborative interactions among researchers, developers, regulators, and stakeholders. Technical summary A systematic assessment was performed using feedback from the international community to identify priority environmental issues for land-based and offshore wind energy development. Given the global nature of wind energy development, feedback was of interest from all countries where such development is underway or planned to help meet United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change targets. The assessment prioritized environmental issues over the next 5–10 years associated with wind energy development and received a total of 294 responses from 28 countries. For land-based wind, the highest-ranked issues included turbine collision risk for volant species (birds and bats), cumulative effects on species and ecosystems, and indirect effects such as avoidance and displacement. For offshore wind, the highest-ranked issues included cumulative effects, turbine collision risk, underwater noise (e.g. marine mammals and fish), and displacement. Emerging considerations for these priorities include potential application to future technologies (e.g. larger turbines and floating turbines), new stressors and species in frontier regions, and cumulative effects for multiple projects at a regional scale. For both land-based and offshore wind, effectiveness of minimization measures (e.g. detection and deterrence technologies) and costs for monitoring, minimization, and mitigation were identified as overarching challenges. Social media summary Turbine collisions and cumulative effects among the international environmental priorities for wind energy development.

17 WIND ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2025

Investigation of the Sensitivity of Tropical Cyclogenesis to Aerosol Intervention

Abstract As risks from tropical cyclones (TCs) are fueled by climate change escalation, there is an urgent need for transformational solutions to complement traditional approaches. Seeding TCs using aerosols can be a promising method to reduce cyclone intensity, supported by theoretical understanding of the microphysical effects of aerosols on TC clouds. The ideal time to intervene effectively in TCs is likely during their initial stage, before TC wind speeds reach their peak. However, studies exploring potential aerosol effects on TC formation remain scarce. This study investigates how a TC embryo responds to the addition of aerosols of varying sizes using the Weather Research & Forecasting (WRF) model coupled with a spectral‐bin microphysics model. We found that aerosols of different sizes and concentrations distinctively affect the pre‐TC vortex's microstructure and dynamics. Fine and ultrafine aerosols enhance the latent heat of condensation, freezing, deposition, and riming, initially intensifying the vortex. However, this results in enhancement of the cold pool, thereby reducing inflow and surface fluxes, subsequently weakening the vortex. Coarse aerosols produce the opposite effect to that of fine and ultrafine aerosols. Coarse aerosols lead to a slower initial acceleration owing to enhanced warm rain. However, the resulting weaker cold pool is insufficient to effectively reduce the strength of the vortex at the later stage. This study provides critical insights into how aerosols of varying sizes and concentrations modulate the energy cascade and impact the evolution of a TC embryo, laying the groundwork for further research on TC risk management through aerosol intervention.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Towards an Energy Future with Ubiquitous Electric Vehicles: Barriers and Opportunities

The electrification of personal transportation holds great potential for lowering greenhouse gas emissions and reducing climate change. The promise of electric vehicles (EVs) to serve these goals has resulted in a broad range of supporting policies aimed at encouraging widespread EV adoption at both the state and federal levels in the United States and around the world. While the EV revolution and prospects of a world with ubiquitous EVs are impacting various industries and many aspects of daily life, strategic interactions between the power grid and EVs are crucial for a successful energy transition. However, managing the interplay between EVs and the power grid remains a challenge. Motivated by that tension, this paper surveys a variety of solutions, policies, and incentives that are focused on effectively managing EV charging behaviors. The paper’s objective is to explore these tools to ensure that EV owners have ultimate control over their personal vehicles while simultaneously allowing the power grid to mitigate adverse network impacts. Furthermore, this paper examines the role of charging infrastructure technology and its strategic placement in facilitating the seamless integration of EVs into the grid. Additionally, the paper highlights financial mechanisms associated with EV integration and discusses the consequences of these mechanisms.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗
DOE OSTI2020

Intensified Humid Heat Events Under Global Warming

Based on the CMIP5 multi-model simulations, this paper investigates the future changes in extreme wet-bulb temperatures (TWs) and extreme dry-bulb temperatures (Ts) globally under both low and high emission scenarios (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5). Under a warming climate, T and TW exhibit a higher absolute increase in their mean values over the mid-high latitudes while they show higher relative increases in their mean values and variability over tropics. Here, humid and dry heat events which consist of consecutive extreme TWs and Ts show higher occurrences over tropics, governed by the joint increases in mean values and variability of TW and T therein. Humid heat events show intensifications to dry heat events with higher frequency, duration, and intensity, driven by the lower variability of TW than T. In the mid-high latitudes, heat events will start earlier and last longer in warm season under RCP8.5 than RCP4.5, motivating the need for global warming mitigation.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

What Factors Drive the Changes in Water Withdrawals in the U.S. Agriculture and Food Manufacturing Industries between 1995 and 2010?

Climate change and increasing world population will directly impact the global food supply chain linkages. In the United States, agricultural production requires less irrigated water than before but it still accounts for a third of total water withdrawals. To better understand the evolution of its water use, we perform a structural decomposition analysis of water withdrawals across eight different crops and six livestock categories and differentiate the trends over 1995–2005 vs 2005–2010 to account for the role of the economic crisis in the second period. Based on USGS data, the results show that both periods experienced an overall decline in water withdrawals in the production of all crops except oilseeds. This trend is driven by a decrease in water intensity, reflecting greater efficiency of irrigation systems, and by reduced local per capita income in the second period. However, increased foreign demand for water-intensive sectors like oilseeds from NAFTA and Asian partners mitigated the decline. Results indicate also a decreasing water use in livestock production partially due to a shift from red to white meat consumption in the country. Arguably, recent tariff wars and border closures have greatly reduced the virtual water embodied in American exports.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
DOE OSTI2025

A multi model ensemble reveals net climate benefits from regenerative practices in US Midwest croplands

Process-based cropping systems models (CSMs) are key components of measurement, monitoring, reporting, and verification frameworks of carbon markets, but model-specific differences limit their applicability across diverse pedo-climatic conditions and agronomic practices. Multi-model ensemble (MME) provides an opportunity to better estimate changes in soil organic carbon (SOC) and nitrous oxide (N 2 O) emissions from agronomic practices at scale. We used an MME across 46 million hectares of US Midwest cropland at a resolution of 4-km 2 to assess the aggregate ability of different regenerative practices to sequester SOC and N 2 O emissions compared to their counterfactual dynamic baselines. MME was validated against long-term trials and compared to its constituent CSMs, showing greater accuracy and lower uncertainty. The results show that adopting no-till combined with cover crops increased SOC stocks by 0.36 ± 0.12 Mg ha -1 yr -1 , corresponding to a net regional SOC gain of 16.4 Tg C yr -1 compared to business-as-usual baselines. These benefits are halved when each management is practiced individually, and the SOC gains are only fully realized with low initial carbon stock. By including N 2 O emissions, we can assess the overall climate mitigation potential, specifically, the extent to which carbon sequestration can offset direct N 2 O emissions. The magnitude of this potential varies depending on management practices and geographic location with net climate benefits on average ranging from 0 to 3 Mg CO 2 -eq ha -1 yr -1 . High-resolution MME results allow for robust estimates of climate mitigation, reducing barriers to carbon market participation and supporting regenerative agriculture initiatives at scale.

carbon credits↗
DOE OSTI2024

Propelling sustainable energy: Multi-omics analysis of pennycress FATTY ACID ELONGATION1 knockout for biofuel production

Abstract The aviation industry’s growing interest in renewable jet fuel has encouraged the exploration of alternative oilseed crops. Replacing traditional fossil fuels with a sustainable, domestically sourced crop can substantially reduce carbon emissions, thus mitigating global climate instability. Pennycress (Thlaspi arvense L.) is an emerging oilseed intermediate crop that can be grown during the offseason between maize (Zea mays) and soybean (Glycine max) to produce renewable biofuel. Pennycress is being domesticated through breeding and mutagenesis, providing opportunities for trait enhancement. Here, we employed metabolic engineering strategies to improve seed oil composition and bolster the plant's economic competitiveness. FATTY ACID ELONGATION1 (FAE1) was targeted using CRISPR-Cas 9 gene editing to eliminate very long chain fatty acids (VLCFAs) from pennycress seed oil, thereby enhancing its cold flow properties. Through an integrated multiomics approach, we investigated the impact of eliminating VLCFAs in developing and mature plant embryos. Our findings revealed improved cold-germination efficiency in fae1, with seedling emergence occurring up to 3 d earlier at 10 °C. However, these alterations led to a tradeoff between storage oil content and composition. Additionally, these shifts in lipid biosynthesis were accompanied by broad metabolic changes, such as the accumulation of glucose and ADP-glucose quantities consistent with increased starch production. Furthermore, shifts to shorter FA chains triggered the upregulation of heat shock proteins, underscoring the importance of VLCFAs in stress signaling pathways. Overall, this research provides crucial insights for optimizing pennycress seed oil while preserving essential traits for biofuel applications.

Rasoul, Amira (ORCID:0009000714290175)↗
DOE OSTI2024

Investigating the effects of cooperative transmission expansion planning on grid performance during heat waves with varying spatial scales

There is growing recognition of the advantages of interregional transmission capacity to decarbonize electricity grids. A less explored benefit is potential performance improvements during extreme weather events. This study examines the impacts of cooperative transmission expansion planning using an advanced modeling chain to simulate power grid operations of the United States Western Interconnection in 2019 and 2059 under different levels of collaboration between transmission planning regions. Two historical heat waves in 2019 with varying geographical coverage are replayed under future climate change in 2059 to assess the transmission cooperation benefits during grid stress. The results show that cooperative transmission planning yields the best outcomes in terms of reducing wholesale electricity prices and minimizing energy outages both for the whole interconnection and individual transmission planning regions. Compared to individual planning, cooperative planning reduces wholesale electricity prices by 64.3 % and interconnection-wide total costs (transmission investments + grid operations) by 34.6 % in 2059. It also helps decrease greenhouse gas emissions by increasing renewable energy utilization. However, the benefits of cooperation diminish during the widespread heat wave when all regions face extreme electricity demand due to higher space cooling needs. Despite this, cooperative transmission planning remains advantageous, particularly for California Independent System Operator with significant diurnal solar generation capacity. This study suggests that cooperation in transmission planning is crucial for reducing costs and increasing reliability both during normal periods and extreme weather events. It highlights the importance of optimizing the strategic investments to mitigate challenges posed by wider-scale extreme weather events of the future.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2024

Enriched Molecular-Level View of Saline Wetland Soil Carbon by Sensitivity-Enhanced Solid-State NMR

Soil organic matter (SOM) plays a major role in mitigating greenhouse gas emission and regulating earth’s climate, carbon cycle, and biodiversity. Wetland soils account for one-third of all SOM; however, globally, coastal wetland soils are eroding faster due to increasing sea-level rise. Our understanding of carbon sequestration dynamics in wetlands lags behind that of upland soils. Here, we employ solid-state nuclear magnetic resonance (ssNMR) to investigate the molecular-level structure of biopolymers in wetland soils spanning 11 centuries. High-resolution multidimensional spectra, enabled by dynamic nuclear polarization (DNP), demonstrate enduring preservation of molecular structures within herbaceous plant cores, notably condensing aromatic motifs and carbohydrates, even over a millennium, with the preserved cores constituting a decreasing minority among molecules from decomposition and repolymerization with depth and age. Such preserved cores occur alongside molecules from the decomposition of loosely packed parent biopolymers. These findings emphasize the relative vulnerability of coastal wetland SOM when exposed to oxygenated water due to geological and anthropogenic changes.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2023

Investigating the impact of environmental factors on West Nile virus human case prediction in Ontario, Canada

West Nile virus is the most common mosquito borne disease in North America and the leading cause of viral encephalitis. West Nile virus is primarily transmitted between birds and mosquitoes while humans are incidental, dead-end hosts. Climate change may increase the risk of human infections as climatic variables have been shown to affect the mosquito life cycle, biting rate, incubation period of the disease in mosquitoes, and bird migration patterns. We develop a zero-inflated Poisson model to investigate how human West Nile virus case counts vary with respect to mosquito abundance and infection rates, bird abundance, and other environmental covariates. We use a Bayesian paradigm to fit our model to data from 2010–2019 in Ontario, Canada. Our results show mosquito infection rate, temperature, precipitation, and crow abundance are positively correlated with human cases while NDVI and robin abundance are negatively correlated with human cases. We find the inclusion of spatial random effects allows for more accurate predictions, particularly in years where cases are higher. Our model is able to accurately predict the magnitude and timing of yearly West Nile virus outbreaks and could be a valuable tool for public health officials to implement prevention strategies to mitigate these outbreaks.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗