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NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Parametric Cost Modeling of a Mid-Lift-to-Drag Ratio Vehicle for Human Mars Entry, Descent, and Landing

Cost is one of the biggest obstacles to sending humans to Mars. However, spacecraft costs are typically estimated after the preliminary vehicle and mission concepts have been designed. By automating the cost estimation process, the effect of any change in vehicle or mission design on the mission cost can be determined more rapidly. This paper uses the tool SAPE-C (Systems Analysis for Planetary Entry, Descent, and Landing-Cost). SAPE-C integrates the cost modeling software SEER-H (System Estimation and Evaluation of Resources-Hardware) with a number of systems analysis tools and enables large design tradespace exploration early in the design process. SAPE-C is used to analyze several tradespaces of the Mid-Lift-to-Drag ratio rigid entry vehicle for human Mars missions. Key findings include quantifying the impacts of payload, vehicle length, and main engine specific impulse on the overall cost of the vehicle, and how the payload per lander and number of landers affects the cost of a campaign to Mars.

Paul D Friz↗
DOE OSTI2024

United States Multi-Sector Dynamics land use and land cover base maps to support Human-Earth System Modeling

Datasets are land use and land cover (LULC) rasterized base maps at 30-m resolution for the conterminous United States (CONUS) for the years 2008, 2011, 2016, and 2019. Separate base maps are provided where LULC classifications are thematically congruent with Community Land Model (CLM), Land Use Harmonization (LUH2), and Global Change Analysis Model (GCAM), and a detailed decomposition of all combined land classes into a Multisector Dynamics (MSD) LULC product. Base maps were developed using empirically derived satellite (National Land Cover Dataset, MODIS) and combined observation datasets (Crop Data Layer, Protected Areas Database) and represent the most up-to-date accurate information on LULC in the CONUS. The four datasets encompass four different landcover classification systems: MSD Layers - The raw landcover classes obtained from reclassifying NLCD and USDA Crop data layers into a respective landcover class GCAM Layers - The MSD classes mosaiced, reclassified, and combined into the respective GCAM landcover classes CLM Layers - Similar process to GCAM layers, but mosaiced, reclassified, and combined MSD layers to their respective PFT classes LUH2 Layers - Similar process to both GCAM and CLM Layers, but mosaiced, reclassified and combined the MSD layers to align with the respective states

Food↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Histological and Transcriptomic Analysis of Spaceflight-Induced Ocular Changes in the Mouse Retina

Anatomical changes have been observed in astronauts’ eyes after long duration spaceflight missions. These alterations can lead to visual impairment which in part constitutes the spaceflight-associated neuroocular syndrome (SANS), one of the top risk priorities for deep space missions. The HRP Systems Biology (SysBio) Translation Project will apply systems biology approaches utilizing current human physiological spaceflight data, molecular results from rodents, and future research with a multi-level, multi-system, and multi-species perspective to augment the existing research plan to resolve the SANS risk. Not much is known about SANS at the cellular and molecular level, but studies in mice and rats have recently begun to determine how spaceflight might affect the biology of the eye. Preliminary studies of mice that flew on the Space Shuttle, and more recently the International Space Station (ISS), have shown changes in retinal physiology as assessed by histology and gene expression analysis. The study presented here obtained samples from the CASIS sponsored Rodent Research 8 Experiment delivered to the ISS by SpaceX CRS-16 on 12/08/2018. Female BALB/cAnNTac mice flew on the ISS for 45 days, while ground controls were housed in a standard vivarium or animal enclosure module. Sacrifice and sample acquisition occurred once mice returned to Earth, possibly allowing for readaptation affecting retinal homeostasis. We applied standard transcriptomic (RNAseq) and histological approaches to characterize genes and pathways in the mouse retina affected by spaceflight or age. The differentially expressed gene (DEG) data was analyzed using Galaxy (GeneLab) and Ingenuity Pathway Analysis. Significant DEGs between flight and ground samples were relatively few but biologically meaningful. Pathways identified related to neuronal differentiation, cellular transport/movement, and wound healing. Age effects were detected between the young (10–12 weeks) and old (32 weeks) groups and between the baseline and end of experiment (~46 days). The biological relevance of specific DEGs were confirmed through immunohistochemical evaluation using fixed histological sections of the eye from four flight group mice and four habitat control mice. Staining was performed specific for synaptophysin, glial fibrillary acidic protein (GFAP), and neurofilament in the retinal periphery, equator, and peripapillary regions. For synaptophysin staining, the innerplexiform and outerplexiform layers were scored; for GFAP staining, Mueller cells and perivascular astrocytes were scored. Results show flight samples typically had more staining of GFAP and neurofilament while, conversely, the habitat control group had more staining of synaptophysin.

C. Perez↗
DOE OSTI2023

Chemodiversity of riverine dissolved organic matter: Effects of local environments and watershed characteristics

Riverine dissolved organic matter (DOM) is crucial to global carbon cycling and aquatic ecosystems. However, the geographical patterns and environmental correlates of DOM chemodiversity remain elusive especially in surface waters and sediments of global rivers. Here, we systematically analyzed DOM molecular diversity and composition in surface waters and sediments across 97 globally distributed rivers using data from the Worldwide Hydrobiogeochemistry Observation Network for Dynamic River Systems (WHONDRS) consortium. Here, we further examined the associations of molecular richness and composition with geographical, climatic, physicochemical variables, as well as the watershed characteristics. We found that molecular richness significantly decreased toward higher latitudes, but only in sediments (r = -0.24, P < 0.001). The environmental variables like precipitation and non-purgeable organic carbon showed strong associations with DOM molecular richness and composition. Interestingly, we identified that less-documented factors like watershed characteristics were also related to DOM molecular richness and composition, and were stronger in waters than sediments. Such associations were further supported by the fact that 11 out of 13 watershed characteristics (e.g., land cover variables) showed more positive than negative correlations with molecular abundance especially in waters. The molecules positively and negatively correlated with specific watershed characteristics had distinct traits, such as stoichiometric ratios and aromaticity. Land covers shifted from natural (e.g., forests) to human-modified (e.g., impervious area) were associated with systematic changes in DOM molecular chemistry. Our findings imply that it may be possible to use a small set of broadly available data types to predict DOM molecular richness and composition across diverse river systems. Elucidation of mechanisms underlying these relationships will provide further enhancements to such predictions, especially when extrapolating to unsampled systems.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Modeling the Economic and Environmental Impacts of Land Scarcity Under Deep Uncertainty

Abstract Land scarcity is increasing over time, driven by complex multisector dynamics. The impacts of land scarcity on the economy and environment are multi‐faceted and regional, so any action to convert land will contain inherent tradeoffs. These impacts are complicated by the deeply uncertain evolution of the various sectors influencing land scarcity. A need therefore exists to provide multi‐metric and multi‐sector assessments that are robust to myriad uncertainties. Land conservation effectively limits the supply of productive land, while biofuel consumption increases the demand and competition for that land, and how these dynamics individually and jointly propagate to economic and environmental impacts is an important open question. To address this, we adopt the Global Change Analysis Model (GCAM) that has representations of various important systems including the climate, macroeconomic, energy, agriculture and land, and water resources systems. Various scenarios of increased land demand (from biofuels) and decreased land supply (from conservation) under various socioeconomic scenarios drawn from the SSPs were simulated using GCAM. We find that while biofuel consumption and land conservation reduce carbon emissions, this comes at the cost of higher food prices, reduced crop production, and increased water withdrawals. Additionally, some regions experience these tradeoffs more severely than others and are more heavily impacted from the same biofuel mandate or by an additional percent of protected land. These and other findings highlight the importance of multisector modeling frameworks that capture many cross‐sector linkages, and acknowledge the important uncertainties confronting the human‐Earth system when making any analysis of land scarcity impacts.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Integrate health into decision-making to foster climate action

The COVID-19 pandemic reveals that societies place a high value on healthy lives. Leveraging this momentum to establish a more central role for human health in the policy process will provide further impetus to a sustainable transformation of energy and food systems.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
NASA NTRS1987

Spacelab Life Sciences flight experiments: an integrated approach to the study of cardiovascular deconditioning and orthostatic hypotension

The microgravity environment of spaceflight produces rapid cardiovascular changes which are adaptive and appropriate in that setting, but are associated with significant deconditioning and orthostatic hypotension on return to Earth's gravity. The rapidity with which these space flight induced changes appear and disappear provides an ideal model for studying the underlying pathophysiological mechanisms of deconditioning and orthostatic hypotension, regardless of etiology. Since significant deconditioning is seen after flights of very short duration, muscle atrophy due to inactivity plays, at most, a small role. These changes in circulatory control associated with cephalad fluid shifts, rather than inactivity per se, are probably more important factors. In order to test this hypothesis in a systematic way, a multidisciplinary approach which defines and integrates inputs and responses from a wide variety of circulatory sub-systems is required. The cardiovascular experiments selected for Spacelab Life Sciences flights 1 and 2 provide such an approach. Both human and animal models will be utilized. Pre- and post-flight characterization of the payload crew includes determination of maximal exercise capacity (bicycle ergometry), orthostatic tolerance (lower body negative pressure), alpha and beta adrenergic sensitivity (isoproterenol and phenylephrine infusions), baroreflex sensitivity (ECG-gated, stepwise changes in carotid artery transmural pressure with a pneumatic neck collar), and responses to a 24 h period of 5 deg head-down tilt. Measurements of cardiac output (CO2 and C2H2 rebreathing), cardiac chamber dimensions (phased-array 2-dimensional echocardiography), direct central venous pressure, leg volume (Thornton sock), limb blood flow and venous compliance (occlusion plethysmography), blood and plasma volumes, renal plasma flow and glomerular filtration rates, and various hormonal levels including catecholamines and atrial natriuretic factor will also be obtained. The central venous catheter will be inserted immediately pre-launch and monitored with heart rate and blood pressure in-flight until cardiac output, respiratory gas exchange and quantitative 2D echocardiography measurements can be performed. In-flight hemodynamic measurements will be repeated at rest and during submaximal exercise daily and also during maximal exercise midway through the flight to document the timecourse and extent of cardiovascular changes in the payload crew. Parallel studies are planned for the animals. In addition to measurements of right atrial and aortic pressures and cardiac output, a dorsal micro-circulatory chamber will allow determinations of changes in capillary and venular architecture and function in six of the rats. The techniques and findings from many of the SLS-1 and 2 supporting studies have already yielded significant information about circulatory regulation in patients with both hypo- and hypertension. The flight experiments themselves will provide new data to test the validity of both animal and human models currently used for simulating the fluid shifts of a micro-gravity environment. The development of effective countermeasures, not only for short and long duration space travellers, but also for Earth-bound medical patients can then be physiologically based on experimental data rather than anecdote.

Non-NASA Center↗
NASA NTRS2007

Adaptive Changes in Sensorimotor Coordination and Motion Sickness Following Repeated Exposures to Virtual Environments

Virtual environments offer unique training opportunities, particularly for training astronauts and preadapting them to the novel sensory conditions of microgravity. Two unresolved human factors issues in virtual reality (VR) systems are: 1) potential "cybersickness", and 2) maladaptive sensorimotor performance following exposure to VR systems. Interestingly, these aftereffects are often quite similar to adaptive sensorimotor responses observed in astronauts during and/or following space flight. Initial interpretation of novel sensory information may be inappropriate and result in perceptual errors. Active exploratory behavior in a new environment, with resulting feedback and the formation of new associations between sensory inputs and response outputs, promotes appropriate perception and motor control in the new environment. Thus, people adapt to consistent, sustained alterations of sensory input such as those produced by microgravity, unilateral labyrinthectomy and experimentally produced stimulus rearrangements. The purpose of this research was to compare disturbances in sensorimotor coordination produced by dome and head-mounted virtual environment displays and to examine the effects of exposure duration, and repeated exposures to VR systems. The first study examined disturbances in balance control, and the second study examined disturbances in eye-head-hand (EHH) and eye-head coordination.

Harm, D. L.↗
NASA NTRS2013

Monitoring Regional Forest Disturbances across the US with Near Real Time MODIS NDVI Products included in the ForWarn Forest Threat Early Warning System

U.S. forests occupy approx.1/3 of total land area (approx. 304 million ha). Since 2000, a growing number of regionally evident forest disturbances have occurred due to abiotic and biotic agents. Regional forest disturbances can threaten human life and property, bio-diversity and water supplies. Timely regional forest disturbance monitoring products are needed to aid forest health management work. Near Real Time (NRT) twice daily MODIS NDVI data provide a means to monitor U.S. regional forest disturbances every 8 days. Since 2010, these NRT forest change products have been produced and posted on the US Forest Service ForWarn Early Warning System for Forest Threats.

Spruce, Joseph↗
NASA NTRS1977

Prediction of pilot-aircraft stability boundaries and performance contours

Control-theoretic pilot models can provide important new insights regarding the stability and performance characteristics of the pilot-aircraft system. Optimal-control pilot models can be formed for a wide range of flight conditions, suggesting that the human pilot can maintain stability if he adapts his control strategy to the aircraft's changing dynamics. Of particular concern is the effect of sub-optimal pilot adaptation as an aircraft transitions from low to high angle-of-attack during rapid maneuvering, as the changes in aircraft stability and control response can be extreme. This paper examines the effects of optimal and sub-optimal effort during a typical 'high-g' maneuver, and it introduces the concept of minimum-control effort (MCE) adaptation. Limited experimental results tend to support the MCE adaptation concept.

Stengel, R. F.↗
NASA NTRS1989

Work, exercise, and space flight. 1: Operations, environment, and effects of spaceflight

The selection, training, and operations of space flight impose significant physical demands which seem to be adequately met by the existing physical training facilities and informal individual exercise programs. The professional astronaut population has, by selection, better than average health and physical capacity. The essentials of life on earth are adequately met by the spacecraft. However, as the human body adapts to weightlessness, it is compromised for the usual life on earth, but readaptation is rapid. Long term flight without countermeasures will produce major changes in the cardiovascular, respiratory, musculoskeletal and neuromuscular systems. There is strong theoretical and experimental evidence from 1-g studies and limited in-flight evidence to believe that exercise is a key counter-measure to many of these adaptations.

Thornton, William↗
NASA NTRS1996

Astrobiology Workshop: Leadership in Astrobiology

Astrobiology is defined in the 1996 NASA Strategic Plan as 'The study of the living universe.' At NASA's Ames Research Center, this endeavor encompasses the use of space to understand life's origin, evolution, and destiny in the universe. Life's origin refers to understanding the origin of life in the context of the origin and diversity of planetary systems. Life's evolution refers to understanding how living systems have adapted to Earth's changing environment, to the all-pervasive force of gravity, and how they may adapt to environments beyond Earth. Life's destiny refers to making long-term human presence in space a reality, and laying the foundation for understanding and managing changes in Earth's environment. The first Astrobiology Workshop brought together a diverse group of researchers to discuss the following general questions: Where and how are other habitable worlds formed? How does life originate? How have the Earth and its biosphere influenced each other over time? Can terrestrial life be sustained beyond our planet? How can we expand the human presence to Mars? The objectives of the Workshop included: discussing the scope of astrobiology, strengthening existing efforts for the study of life in the universe, identifying new cross-disciplinary programs with the greatest potential for scientific return, and suggesting steps needed to bring this program to reality. Ames has been assigned the lead role for astrobiology by NASA in recognition of its strong history of leadership in multidisciplinary research in the space, Earth, and life sciences and its pioneering work in studies of the living universe. This initial science workshop was established to lay the foundation for what is to become a national effort in astrobiology, with anticipated participation by the university community, other NASA centers, and other agencies. This workshop (the first meeting of its kind ever held) involved life, Earth, and space scientists in a truly interdisciplinary sharing of ideas related to life in the universe, and by all accounts was a resounding success.

DeVincenzi, D.↗
NASA NTRS1997

Astrobiology: Study of the Living Universe

Astrobiology is defined as the study of the living universe. This endeavor encompasses the use of space to understand life's origin, evolution, and destiny in the universe. Life's origin refers to understanding the origin of life in the context of the origin and diversity of planetary systems. Life's evolution refers to understanding how living systems have adapted to Earth's changing environment, to the all-pervasive force of gravity, and how they may adapt to environments beyond Earth. Life's destiny refers to making long-term human presence in space a reality, and laying the foundation for understanding and managing changes in Earth's environment. This lecture will explore the development of this field of inquiry, the science questions to be examined, and the mechanisms available for participation by the scientific community.

DeVincenzi, Donald L.↗
NASA NTRS2015

Determination of Roles of Microgravity and Ionizing Radiation on the Reactivation of Epstein-Barr Virus In Vitro

Astronauts experience symptomatic and asymptomatic herpes virus reactivation during spaceflight. We have shown increases in reactivation of Epstein-Barr virus (EBV), cytomegalovirus (CMV) and varicella zoster virus (VZV) and shedding in body fluids (saliva and urine) in astronauts during space travel. Alterations in immunity, increased stress hormone levels, microgravity, increased radiation, and other conditions unique to spaceflight may promote reactivation of latent herpes viruses. Unique mechanico-physico forces associated with spaceflight can have profound effects on cellular function, especially immune cells. In space flight analog studies such as Antarctica, bed rest studies, and NASA's undersea habitat (Aquarius), reactivation of these viruses occurred, but to a lesser extent than spaceflight. Spaceflight analogs model some spaceflight factors, but none of the analogs recreates all factors experienced in space. Most notably, microgravity and radiation are not included in many analogs. Stress, processed through the HPA axis and SAM systems, induces viral reactivation. However, the respective roles of microgravity and increased space radiation levels or if any synergy exists are not known. Therefore, we studied the effect of modeled space radiation and/or microgravity, independent of the immune system on the changes in cellular gene expression that results in viral (EBV) reactivation. The effects of modeled microgravity and low shear on EBV replication and cellular and EBV gene expression were studied in human B-lymphocyte cell cultures. Latently infected B-lymphocytes were propagated in the rotating wall bioreactor and irradiated with the various dosages of gamma irradiation. At specific time intervals following exposure to modeled microgravity, the cells and supernatant were harvested and reactivation of EBV were assessed by measuring EBV and gene expression, DNA methylation, and infectious virus production.

Mehta, Satish K↗
NASA NTRS2016

Relationships Between Vestibular Measures as Potential Predictors for Spaceflight Sensorimotor Adaptation

Introduction: During space exploration missions astronauts are exposed to a series of novel sensorimotor environments, requiring sensorimotor adaptation. Until adaptation is complete, sensorimotor decrements occur, affecting critical tasks such as piloted landing or docking. Of particularly interest are locomotion tasks such as emergency vehicle egress or extra-vehicular activity. While nearly all astronauts eventually adapt sufficiently, it appears there are substantial individual differences in how quickly and effectively this adaptation occurs. These individual differences in capacity for sensorimotor adaptation are poorly understood. Broadly, we aim to identify measures that may serve as pre-flight predictors of and individual's adaptation capacity to spaceflight-induced sensorimotor changes. As a first step, since spaceflight is thought to involve a reinterpretation of graviceptor cues (e.g. otolith cues from the vestibular system) we investigate the relationships between various measures of vestibular function in humans. Methods: In a set of 15 ground-based control subjects, we quantified individual differences in vestibular function using three measures: 1) ocular vestibular evoked myogenic potential (oVEMP), 2) computerized dynamic posturography and 3) vestibular perceptual thresholds. oVEMP responses are elicited using a mechanical stimuli approach. Computerized dynamic posturography was used to quantify Sensory Organization Tests (SOTs), including SOT5M which involved performing pitching head movements while balancing on a sway-reference support surface with eyes closed. We implemented a vestibular perceptual threshold task using the tilt capabilities of the Tilt-Translation Sled (TTS) at JSC. On each trial, the subject was passively roll-tilted left ear down or right ear down in the dark and verbally provided a forced-choice response regarding which direction they felt tilted. The motion profile was a single-cycle sinusoid of angular acceleration with a duration of 5 seconds (frequency of 0.2 Hz), which was selected as it requires sensory integration of otolith and semicircular canal cues. Stimuli direction was randomized and magnitude was determined using an adaptive sampling procedure. One hundred trials were provided and each subject's responses were fit with a psychometric curve to estimate the subject's threshold. Results: Roll tilt perceptual thresholds at 0.2 Hz ranged from 0.5 degrees to 1.82 degrees across the 15 subjects (geometric mean of 1.04 degrees), consistent with previous studies. The inter-individual variability in thresholds may be able to help explain individual differences observed in sensorimotor adaptation to spaceflight. Analysis is ongoing for the oVEMPS and computerized dynamic posturography to identify relationships between the various vestibular measures. Discussion: Predicting individual differences in sensorimotor adaptation is critical both for the development of personalized countermeasures and mission planning. Here we aim to develop a basis of vestibular tests and parameters which may serve as predictors of individual differences in sensorimotor adaptability through studying the relationship between these measures.

Clark, T. K.↗
NASA NTRS2022

Quantifying Earth System Interactions for Sustainable Food Production Via Expert Elicitation

Several safe boundaries of critical Earth system processes have already been crossed due to human perturbations; not accounting for their interactions may further narrow the safe operating space for humanity. Using expert knowledge elicitation, we explored interactions among seven variables representing Earth system processes relevant to food production, identifying many interactions little explored in Earth system literature. We found that green water and land system change affect other Earth system processes strongly, while land, freshwater and ocean components of biosphere integrity are the most impacted by other Earth system processes, most notably blue water and biogeochemical flows. We also mapped a complex network of mechanisms mediating these interactions and created a future research prioritization scheme based on interaction strengths and existing knowledge gaps. Our study improves the understanding of Earth system interactions, with sustainability implications including improved Earth system modelling and more explicit biophysical limits for future food production.

Expert knowledge elicitation↗
NASA NTRS2003

HUMEX, a study on the survivability and adaptation of humans to long-duration exploratory missions, part I: lunar missions

The European Space Agency has recently initiated a study of the human responses, limits and needs with regard to the stress environments of interplanetary and planetary missions. Emphasis has been laid on human health and performance care as well as advanced life support developments including bioregenerative life support systems and environmental monitoring. The overall study goals were as follows: (i) to define reference scenarios for a European participation in human exploration and to estimate their influence on the life sciences and life support requirements; (ii) for selected mission scenarios, to critically assess the limiting factors for human health, wellbeing, and performance and to recommend relevant countermeasures; (iii) for selected mission scenarios, to critically assess the potential of advanced life support developments and to propose a European strategy including terrestrial applications; (iv) to critically assess the feasibility of existing facilities and technologies on ground and in space as testbeds in preparation for human exploratory missions and to develop a test plan for ground and space campaigns; (v) to develop a roadmap for a future European strategy towards human exploratory missions, including preparatory activities and terrestrial applications and benefits. This paper covers the part of the HUMEX study dealing with lunar missions. A lunar base at the south pole where long-time sunlight and potential water ice deposits could be assumed was selected as the Moon reference scenario. The impact on human health, performance and well being has been investigated from the view point of the effects of microgravity (during space travel), reduced gravity (on the Moon) and abrupt gravity changes (during launch and landing), of the effects of cosmic radiation including solar particle events, of psychological issues as well as general health care. Countermeasures as well as necessary research using ground-based test beds and/or the International Space Station have been defined. Likewise advanced life support systems with a high degree of autonomy and regenerative capacity and synergy effects were considered where bioregenerative life support systems and biodiagnostic systems become essential. Finally, a European strategy leading to a potential European participation in future human exploratory missions has been recommended. c2003 COSPAR. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Moon↗
NASA NTRS2019

The Missing Economic Risks in Assessments of Climate Change Impacts

Economic assessments of the potential future risks of climate change have been omitting or grossly underestimating many of the most serious consequences for lives and livelihoods because these risks are difficult to quantify precisely and lie outside of human experience. Political and business leaders need to understand the scale of these ‘missing risks’ because they could have drastic and potentially catastrophic impacts on citizens, communities and companies. Scientists are growing in confidence about the evidence for the largest potential impacts of climate change and the rising probability that major thresholds in the Earth’s climate system will be breached as global mean surface temperature rises, particularly if warming exceeds 2°C above the pre-industrial level. These impacts include: (1) Destabilisation of ice sheets and glaciers and consequent sea level rise. (2) Stronger tropical cyclones. (3) Extreme heat impacts. (4) More frequent and intense floods and droughts. (5) Disruptions to oceanic and atmospheric circulation. (6) Destruction of biodiversity and collapse of ecosystems. Many of these impacts will grow and occur concurrently across the world as global temperature climbs. Some of these impacts involve thresholds in the climate system beyond which major impacts accelerate, or become irreversible and unstoppable. When a threshold is breached, it might cause one or more other thresholds to be exceeded as well, leading to a cascade of impacts. Many of these impacts could exceed the capacity of human populations to adapt, and would significantly affect and disrupt the lives and livelihoods of hundreds of millions, if not billions, of people worldwide. These impacts would also undermine economic growth and development, exacerbate poverty and destabilise communities. Economic assessments fail to take account of the potential for large concurrent impacts across the world that would cause mass migration, displacement and conflict, with huge loss of life. Economic assessments that are expressed solely in terms of effects on output (e.g. gross domestic product), or that only extrapolate from past experience, or that use inappropriate discounting, do not provide a clear indication of the potential risks to lives and livelihoods. It is likely that there are additional risks that we are not yet anticipating simply because scientists have not yet detected their possibility, as we have entered a period of climate change that is unprecedented in human history. Some advances are being made in improving economic assessments of climate change impacts but much more progress is required if assessments are to offer reliable guidance for political and business leaders on the biggest risks. The lack of firm quantifications is not a reason to ignore these risks, and when the missing risks are taken into account, the case for strong and urgent action to reduce greenhouse gas emissions becomes even more compelling.

DeFries, Ruth↗