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From inherent correlation to constrained measurement: Model-assisted calibration in MBMS experiments
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Leveraging visible and near-infrared spectroelectrochemistry to calibrate a robust model for Vanadium(IV/V) in varying nitric acid and temperature levels
Spectroelectrochemistry and optimal design of experiments can be used to rapidly build accurate models for species quantification and enable a greater level of process awareness. Optical spectroscopy can provide vital elemental and molecular information, but several hurdles must be overcome before it can become a widely adopted analytical method for remote analysis in the nuclear field. Analytes with varying oxidation state, acid concentration, and fluctuating temperature must be efficiently accounted for to minimize time and resources in restrictive hot cell environments. The classic one-factor-at-a-time approach is not suitable for frequent calibration/maintenance operations in this setting. Therefore, a novel alternative was developed to characterize a system containing vanadium(IV/V) (0.01–0.1 M), nitric acid (0.1–4 M), and varying temperatures (20–45 °C). Here, spectroelectrochemistry methods were used to acquire a sample set selected by optimal design of experiments. This new approach allows for the accurate analysis of vanadium and HNO 3 concentration by leveraging UV–Vis–NIR absorption spectroscopy with robust and accurate chemometric models. The top model's root mean squared error of prediction percent values were 3.47%, 4.06%, 3.40%, and 10.9% for V(IV), V(V), HNO 3 , and temperature, respectively. These models, efficiently developed using the designed approach, exhibited strong predictive accuracy for vanadium and acid with varying oxidation states and temperature using only spectrophotometry, which advances current technology for real-world hot cell applications. Additionally, Nernstian analysis of the V(IV/V) standard potential was performed using traditional absorbance methods and multivariate curve resolution (MCR). The successful tests demonstrated that MCR Nernst tests may be valuable in highly convoluted spectral systems to better understand the redox processes' behavior.
Spatially explicit terrestrial carbon densities for calibrating the carbon cycle in human-Earth system Models
Soil and vegetation carbon stocks play a critical role in human-Earth system models. These stocks (denominated as densities in MgC/ha) affect variables such as land use change emissions and also influence land use change pathways under climate forcing scenarios where terrestrial carbon is assigned a carbon price. Here we present reharmonized soil and vegetation carbon densities both at the 5-arcmin resolution grid cell level and also aggregated to 235 water sheds for 4 land use types (Cropland, Grazed land, Urban land and unmanaged vegetation) and 15 unmanaged land cover types. Moreover, we use the distribution of carbon within and across pixels to define statistical "states" of carbon, once again differentiated by land type. These statistical states are used to define a range of possible carbon values that can be used for defining initial conditions of soil and vegetation carbon in human-Earth system models. We implement these data in a state-of-the-art multi sector dynamics model, namely the Global Change Analysis Model (GCAM), and show that these new data improve several land use responses, especially when terrestrial carbon is assigned a carbon price.
Seasonal calibration of the end-cretaceous Chicxulub impact event
The end-Cretaceous Chicxulub impact triggered Earth’s last mass-extinction, extinguishing ~ 75% of species diversity and facilitating a global ecological shift to mammal-dominated biomes. Temporal details of the impact event on a fine scale (hour-to-day), important to understanding the early trajectory of mass-extinction, have largely eluded previous studies. This study employs histological and histo-isotopic analyses of fossil fish that were coeval with a unique impact-triggered mass-death assemblage from the Cretaceous-Paleogene (KPg) boundary in North Dakota (USA). Patterns of growth history, including periodicity of δ 18 O and δ 13 C and growth band morphology, plus corroborating data from fish ontogeny and seasonal insect behavior, reveal that the impact occurred during boreal Spring/Summer, shortly after the spawning season for fish and most continental taxa. The severity and taxonomic symmetry of response to global natural hazards are influenced by the season during which they occur, suggesting that post-impact perturbations could have exerted a selective force that was exacerbated by seasonal timing. Data from this study can also provide vital hindsight into patterns of extant biotic response to global-scale hazards that are relevant to both current and future biomes.
Complexity-calibrated benchmarks for machine learning reveal when prediction algorithms succeed and mislead
Abstract Recurrent neural networks are used to forecast time series in finance, climate, language, and from many other domains. Reservoir computers are a particularly easily trainable form of recurrent neural network. Recently, a “next-generation” reservoir computer was introduced in which the memory trace involves only a finite number of previous symbols. We explore the inherent limitations of finite-past memory traces in this intriguing proposal. A lower bound from Fano’s inequality shows that, on highly non-Markovian processes generated by large probabilistic state machines, next-generation reservoir computers with reasonably long memory traces have an error probability that is at least $$\sim 60\%$$ ∼ 60 % higher than the minimal attainable error probability in predicting the next observation. More generally, it appears that popular recurrent neural networks fall far short of optimally predicting such complex processes. These results highlight the need for a new generation of optimized recurrent neural network architectures. Alongside this finding, we present concentration-of-measure results for randomly-generated but complex processes. One conclusion is that large probabilistic state machines—specifically, large $$\epsilon$$ ϵ -machines—are key to generating challenging and structurally-unbiased stimuli for ground-truthing recurrent neural network architectures.
The persistent shadow of the supermassive black hole of M 87. I. Observations, calibration, imaging, and analysis
In April 2019, the Event Horizon Telescope (EHT) Collaboration reported the first-ever event-horizon-scale images of a black hole, resolving the central compact radio source in the giant elliptical galaxy M 87. These images reveal a ring with a southerly brightness distribution and a diameter of ∼42 μas, consistent with the predicted size and shape of a shadow produced by the gravitationally lensed emission around a supermassive black hole. These results were obtained as part of the April 2017 EHT observation campaign, using a global very long baseline interferometric radio array operating at a wavelength of 1.3 mm. Here, we present results based on the second EHT observing campaign, taking place in April 2018 with an improved array, wider frequency coverage, and increased bandwidth. In particular, the additional baselines provided by the Greenland telescope improved the coverage of the array. Multiyear EHT observations provide independent snapshots of the horizon-scale emission, allowing us to confirm the persistence, size, and shape of the black hole shadow, and constrain the intrinsic structural variability of the accretion flow. We have confirmed the presence of an asymmetric ring structure, brighter in the southwest, with a median diameter of 43.3−3.1+1.5 μas. The diameter of the 2018 ring is remarkably consistent with the diameter obtained from the previous 2017 observations. On the other hand, the position angle of the brightness asymmetry in 2018 is shifted by about 30° relative to 2017. The perennial persistence of the ring and its diameter robustly support the interpretation that the ring is formed by lensed emission surrounding a Kerr black hole with a mass ∼6.5 × 109 M⊙. The significant change in the ring brightness asymmetry implies a spin axis that is more consistent with the position angle of the large-scale jet.
Absolute Calibration of a Time-Resolved High Resolution X-ray Spectrometer for the National Ignition Facility (invited)
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Holistic Numerical Calibration of the iMESA Electrostatic Analyzer
A drifted Maxwellian velocity distribution is the most common model used to interpret the data from low-energy charged-particle instruments onboard spacecraft that are used to investigate the ambient plasma environment in the low Earth orbit (LEO). An original method is presented for determining the flow parameters (density, temperature, and flow energy) of such a distribution from the output of the integrated miniaturized electrostatic analyzer, which has been successfully flown on several LEO missions. Rather than attempting to deconvolve from the on-orbit data the analyzer’s response to an ideal, monoenergetic input, numerical simulation is used to predict and parameterize the response of the device to an input distribution that includes an isotropic, non-zero temperature, yielding a straightforward method for extracting the flow parameters from the spacecraft data. The method is computationally simple enough to be incorporated into a robust algorithm suitable for rapid batch processing or real-time analysis of data.
Constrained model calibration of grain structure dependent spall dynamics in shock-loaded tantalum
Here, we perform a gas gun experiment by shock loading tantalum samples of varying grain structures to assess the suitability of a numerical model for simulating spall behavior. The observed differences in spall strength, as well spallation and re-compression history, are not captured in uncalibrated hydrodynamic simulations. An optimization is performed on the Johnson spall model to determine the best parameters that fit the observed trends. Linear stability analysis is employed to motivate bounds on those parameters. Herein, optimized simulations agree well with the experimental results, reproducing pullback depth and recompression timescales across the different samples tested. Further, the observed pullback time of the single crystal sample was found to imply, via the stability analysis, a percolation threshold in good agreement with the theoretical value for a body centered cubic lattice. Therefore, the combined linear stability and percolation analysis shows promise and may be applied to other materials with diverse microstructures. Collectively, the findings demonstrate that the model is suitable for reproducing spall-induced free surface behavior across various microstructures, but also points to caution in using model coefficients for uncalibrated microstructures.
Upgrades to x-ray microcalorimeter fusion diagnostic to improve calibration, spectral bandwidth selection, and count rate adjustment
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Calibration of a broadband x-ray crystal spectrometer using a continuum x-ray source and photon-counting detectors
We report measurements of sensitivity of a broadband (≃20–30 keV) x-ray crystal spectrometer using a bremsstrahlung continuum x-ray source and several detectors, including an energy-discriminating photon-counting point detector (Si drift diode, Amptek Inc.), imaging hybrid photon-counting detectors (Eiger2-Si and Eiger2-CdTe, DECTRIS Ltd.), and image plates (SR type). Sensitivity is defined as a ratio of the crystal-reflected energy-position-dispersed spectrum measured by a given detector to the incident non-dispersed spectrum measured using the energy-discriminating point detector. The sensitivity derived from data measured exclusively by the point detector is considered detector-independent and serves as a reference. The sensitivities derived from data collected with the hybrid photon-counting detectors were matched to the reference using a scale factor of 1.05. The image plate-derived sensitivities required a scale factor of 1.16 to match the reference. Furthermore, the resulting mismatch in the shapes of all measured scaled sensitivities in the range of the spectrometer was ≲±10%, while the mismatch between the shapes of the sensitivities corresponding to the Si-based detectors was ≲±2.5%.
Identifying environmentally induced calibration changes in cryogenic RF axion detector systems using deep neural networks
The axion is a compelling hypothetical particle that could account for the dark matter in our universe while simultaneously solving the strong CP problem in quantum chromodynamics. The most sensitive axion detection technique demonstrated so far makes use of a high Q cavity immersed in a strong magnetic field, where axions are converted to microwave photons. This is called an axion haloscope and has primarily targeted the 1–10 GHz range. As searches scan up in axion mass, toward the parameter space favored by theoretical predictions, individual cavity sizes decrease in order to achieve higher frequencies. This shrinking cavity volume translates directly to a loss in signal-to-noise, motivating the plan to replace individual cavity detectors with arrays of cavities. When the transition from one to (N) multiple cavities occurs, haloscope searches are anticipated to become much more complicated to operate, requiring N times as many measurements but also the new requirement that N detectors operate in unison, which can be achieved by locking them to a common frequency. To offset this anticipated increase in detector complexity, we aim to develop new tools for diagnosing experiments using neural networks. Current experiments monitor scattering parameters of their receiver for periodically measuring cavity quality factor and coupling. However, off-resonant data remain relatively useless. In this paper, we ask if it is possible that off-resonant information contained in vector network analyzer scans could be used to diagnose equipment failures/anomalies and measure physical conditions (e.g., temperatures and ambient magnetic field). We demonstrate a proof-of-concept that AI techniques can help manage the complexity of an axion haloscope search for operators.
Performance and calibration of quark/gluon-jet taggers using 140 fb -1 of pp collisions at $\sqrt{s}$ = 13 TeV with the ATLAS detector
The identification of jets originating from quarks and gluons, often referred to as quark/gluon tagging, plays an important role in various analyses performed at the Large Hadron Collider, as Standard Model measurements and searches for new particles decaying to quarks often rely on suppressing a large gluon-induced background. This paper describes the measurement of the efficiencies of quark/gluon taggers developed within the ATLAS Collaboration, using $\sqrt{s}$ = 13 TeV proton–proton collision data with an integrated luminosity of 140 fb -1 collected by the ATLAS experiment. Two taggers with high performances in rejecting jets from gluon over jets from quarks are studied: one tagger is based on requirements on the number of inner-detector tracks associated with the jet, and the other combines several jet substructure observables using a boosted decision tree. A method is established to determine the quark/gluon fraction in data, by using quark/gluon-enriched subsamples defined by the jet pseudorapidity. Differences in tagging efficiency between data and simulation are provided for jets with transverse momentum between 500 GeV and 2 TeV and for multiple tagger working points.