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At least 703 records · Page 39

Stratigraphy‐Induced Localization of Microseismicity During CO 2 Injection in Illinois Basin

Abstract Subsurface fluid injection stimulates complex hydromechanical interaction, necessitating the integration of geomechanical data across spatial and temporal scales to consider the sophisticated behavior. Induced seismic response is usually associated with the complex reservoir architecture and pre‐existing features that are three‐dimensional, such as local stratigraphy, fractures, faults, and other discontinuities. This study encompasses laboratory characterization of the coupled hydromechanical response of cores extracted from rock formations in Illinois Basin: reservoir ‐ Mt. Simon sandstone, basal seal ‐ Argenta sandstone, and crystalline basement ‐ Precambrian rhyolite. High‐resolution numerical modeling allows considering the three‐dimensional complexity of the Illinois Basin Decatur Project with spatial resolution comparable to one of the active seismic surveys. A detailed reconstruction of the evolving state of stress in formations lacking direct stress measurements is achieved by numerical modeling that integrated laboratory‐derived hydromechanical properties, a porosity‐permeability relationship, active seismic data, and an inverted three‐dimensional porosity distribution. It appears that the microseismic clusters, mainly observed in the crystalline basement during the injection, are linked to zones experiencing more critically stressed conditions prior to injection. These zones have a potential for reactivation during the injection and are attributed to the specific local stratigraphy of the injection site, as well as transfer of triggering perturbations during the injection.

Bondarenko, N. [University of Illinois Urbana‐Cham↗

Evidence for an Early Formation of Serenitatis Basin at 4.25 Ga Shifts Lunar Chronology

Troctolite sample 76535, collected in Serenitatis basin during Apollo 17, formed at least 50 km deep, experienced maximum shock pressures of 6 GPa, and has a 40 Ar/ 39 Ar excavation age of 4.25 Ga. Previous work attributed 76535 to the South Pole-Aitken (SPA) basin, presumably dating the SPA-impact and constraining lunar bombardment history. Here we use the iSALE-2D shock-physics code and gravity inversion modeling to determine if instead the Serenitatis impact event excavated 76535. We find nearly 140,000 km 3 of material (∼2% of near-surface ejecta) matching the depth and pressure constraints of 76535 is displaced to the surface during crater collapse of a Serenitatis-like impact event. We conclude that the Serenitatis impact event possibly excavated 76535, redefining its age to 4.25 Ga, 300 My older than the consensus age based on Apollo 17 samples. This finding would provide an important anchor point where lunar chronology where bombardment flux is especially uncertain.

Bjonnes, Evan [Lawrence Livermore National Laborat↗

Viral elements and their potential influence on microbial processes along the permanently stratified Cariaco Basin redoxcline

Little is known about viruses in oxygen-deficient water columns (ODWCs). In surface ocean waters, viruses are known to act as gene vectors among susceptible hosts. Some of these genes may have metabolic functions and are thus termed auxiliary metabolic genes (AMGs). AMGs introduced to new hosts by viruses can enhance viral replication and/or potentially affect biogeochemical cycles by modulating key microbial pathways. Here we identify 748 viral populations that cluster into 94 genera along a vertical geochemical gradient in the Cariaco Basin, a permanently stratified and euxinic ocean basin. The viral communities in this ODWC appear to be relatively novel as 80 of these viral genera contained no reference viral sequences, likely due to the isolation and unique features of this system. We identify viral elements that encode AMGs implicated in distinctive processes, such as sulfur cycling, acetate fermentation, signal transduction, [Fe–S] formation, and N-glycosylation. These AMG-encoding viruses include two putative Mu-like viruses, and viral-like regions that may constitute degraded prophages that have been modified by transposable elements. Our results provide an insight into the ecological and biogeochemical impact of viruses oxygen-depleted and euxinic habitats.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

A hydrological simulation dataset of the Upper Colorado River Basin from 1983 to 2019

Abstract This article presents a hydrological reconstruction of the Upper Colorado River Basin with an hourly temporal resolution, and 1-km spatial resolution from October 1982 to September 2019. The validated dataset includes a suite of hydrologic variables including streamflow, water table depth, snow water equivalent (SWE) and evapotranspiration (ET) simulated by an integrated hydrological model, ParFlow-CLM. The dataset was validated over the period with a combination of point observations and remotely sensed products. These datasets provide a long-term, natural-flow, simulation for one of the most over-allocated basins in the world.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

The geostatistical approach for structural and stratigraphic framework analysis of offshore NW Bonaparte Basin, Australia

Geostatistics or statistical approach is based on the studies of temporal and spatial trend, which depend upon spatial relationships to model known information of variable(s) at unsampled locations. The statistical technique known as kriging was used for petrophycial and facies analysis, which help to assume spatial relationship to model the geological continuity between the known data and the unknown to produce a single best guess of the unknown. Kriging is also known as optimal interpolation technique, which facilitate to generate best linear unbiased estimation of each horizon. The idea is to construct a numerical model of the lithofacies and rock properties that honor available data and further integrate with interpreting seismic sections, techtonostratigraphy chart with sea level curve (short term) and regional tectonics of the study area to find the structural and stratigraphic growth history of the NW Bonaparte Basin. By using kriging technique the models were built which help to estimate different parameters like horizons, facies, and porosities in the study area. The variograms were used to determine for identification of spatial relationship between data which help to find the depositional history of the North West (NW) Bonaparte Basin.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Approximating basins of attraction for dynamical systems via stable radial bases

In applied sciences it is often required to model and supervise temporal evolution of populations via dynamical systems. In this paper, we focus on the problem of approximating the basins of attraction of such models for each stable equilibrium point. We propose to reconstruct the basins via an implicit interpolant using stable radial bases, obtaining the surfaces by partitioning the phase space into disjoint regions. An application to a competition model presenting jointly three stable equilibria is considered.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗

Driving-induced multistability in coupled chaotic oscillators: Symmetries and riddled basins

We study the multistability that results when a chaotic response system that has an invariant symmetry is driven by another chaotic oscillator. We observe that there is a transition from a desynchronized state to a situation of multistability. In the case considered, there are three coexisting attractors, two of which are synchronized and one is desynchronized. For large coupling, the asynchronous attractor disappears, leaving the system bistable. We study the basins of attraction of the system in the regime of multistability. The three attractor basins are interwoven in a complex manner, with extensive riddling within a sizeable region of (but not the entire) phase space. A quantitative characterization of the riddling behavior is made via the so–called uncertainty exponent, as well as by evaluating the scaling behavior of tongue–like structures emanating from the synchronization manifold.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗

Evaluating Steelhead Kelt Treatments to Increase Iteroparous Spawners in the Yakima River Basin

Abstract Steelhead Oncorhynchus mykiss are iteroparous, distinguishing them from Pacific salmon Oncorhynchus spp. that are semelparous. In this study we evaluated enhancement techniques that exploit this life history strategy to facilitate species restoration and recovery. In the Columbia River basin, where the natural ecosystem has been substantially altered over several decades due to human influence, all steelhead populations are listed as threatened or endangered under the U.S. Endangered Species Act. One factor believed to be limiting survival of Columbia River kelt (postspawned) steelhead is poor migration success to the ocean past several dams. We evaluated three treatments for kelts captured in the Yakima River basin from 2002 to 2011: (1) transport and release below Bonneville Dam (to provide unimpeded access to the ocean); (2) short-term reconditioning (holding and feeding in an artificial environment to facilitate gonad maturation) with transport; and (3) long-term reconditioning. These treatments were compared with an in-river migration control group to identify differences in the rate at which kelts survived and returned to Prosser Dam for potential repeat spawning (hereafter repeat spawners). The long-term reconditioning treatment exhibited the highest return rate of repeat spawners (range, 11.5–17.6%). The short-term reconditioning treatment with transport downstream from Bonneville Dam had a 3.2% return rate. The transport only treatment exhibited the lowest return rate (0.9%); this was only one-third of the control group's return rate (2.7%). Our results indicate that long-term steelhead kelt reconditioning is more successful than either transportation or in-river migration alternatives at increasing potential repeat spawner abundance and providing recovery benefits in river systems that have experienced substantial losses in natural productivity due to loss of habitat and habitat connectivity. Received June 23, 2015; accepted February 27, 2016 Published online July 15, 2016

Trammell, Jeffrey L. J.↗

Field-scale mapping of California crop water productivity to inform water management in critically overdrafted groundwater basins

Crop water productivity (CWP) metrics can reveal how the dynamics of crop production and water use change across space and time. We use field-scale satellite inputs from 2016–2021 to estimate potential water savings for four crops (almonds, grapes, walnuts, and citrus—which collectively account for approximately one-third of California’s cropland area), within critically overdrafted groundwater sub-basins of California’s San Joaquin Valley. These annual estimates of field-level water savings potential are based on locally achievable CWP values for each crop type. Our findings show considerable spatial variation in CWP and potential water savings within each sub-basin. We find that increasing CWP to peak efficiency (defined as improving fields to the 95th percentile of observed CWP) for four crops could meet up to 36% of the estimated annual overdraft in San Joaquin Valley. For comparison, fallowing 5% of the four crop type fields in the same study area could potentially reduce annual overdraft by 11%. By delivering results at the field scale, our work can inform targeted interventions by irrigation district managers and more efficient allocation of state incentives for improved water management. For example, we estimate that state grant funding for water efficiency upgrades could have amplified potential water savings threefold by targeting investments to the least efficient fields.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Hydroclimatology of the Mississippi River Basin

Abstract Model estimated monthly water balance (WB) components (i.e., potential evapotranspiration, actual evapotranspiration, and runoff [ R ]) for 848 United States (U.S.) Geological Survey 8‐digit hydrologic units located in the Mississippi River Basin (MRB) are used to examine the temporal and spatial variability of the MRB WB for water years 1901 through 2014. Results indicate the MRB can be divided into nine subregions with similar temporal variability in R . The WB analyses indicated ~79% of total water‐year MRB runoff is generated by four of the nine subregions and most of the R in the basin is derived from surplus ( S ) water during the months of December through May. Furthermore, the analyses showed temporal variability in S is largely controlled by the occurrence of negative atmospheric pressure anomalies over the western U.S. and positive atmospheric pressure anomalies over the eastern U.S. coast. This combination of atmospheric pressure anomalies results in an anomalous flow of moist air from the Gulf of Mexico into the MRB. In the context of paleo‐climate reconstructions of the Palmer Drought Severity Index, since about 1900 the MRB has experienced wetter conditions than were experienced during the previous 500 years.

McCabe, Gregory J.↗

The Water‐Year Water Balance of the Colorado River Basin

Abstract Model‐estimated monthly water balance components (i.e., potential evapotranspiration, actual evapotranspiration, and runoff ( R )) for 146 United States (U.S.) Geological Survey 8‐digit hydrologic units located in the Colorado River Basin (CRB) are used to examine the temporal and spatial variability of the CRB water balance for water years 1901 through 2014 (a water year is the period from October 1 of one year through September 30 of the following year). Results indicate that the CRB can be divided into six subregions with similar temporal variability in monthly R . The water balance analyses indicated that approximately 75% of total water‐year R is generated by just one CRB subregion and that most of the R in the basin is derived from surplus ( S ) water generated during the months of October through April. Furthermore, the analyses show that temporal variability in S is largely controlled by the occurrence of negative atmospheric pressure anomalies over the northwestern conterminous U.S. (CONUS) and positive atmospheric pressure anomalies over the southeastern CONUS. This combination of atmospheric pressure anomalies results in an anomalous flow of moist air from the North Pacific Ocean into the CRB, particularly the Upper CRB. Additionally, the occurrence of extreme dry and wet periods in the CRB appears to be related to variability of the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation and the Pacific Decadal Oscillation.

McCabe, Gregory J.↗

Burial and exhumation of the Hoh Xil Basin, northern Tibetan Plateau: Constraints from detrital (U‐Th)/He ages

Abstract The uplift and associated exhumation of the Tibetan Plateau has been widely considered a key control of Cenozoic global cooling. The south‐central parts of this plateau experienced rapid exhumation during the Cretaceous–Palaeocene periods. When and how the northern part was exhumed, however, remains controversial. The Hoh Xil Basin (HXB) is the largest late Cretaceous–Cenozoic sedimentary basin in the northern part, and it preserves the archives of the exhumation history. We present detrital apatite and zircon (U‐Th)/He data from late Cretaceous–Cenozoic sedimentary rocks of the western and eastern HXB. These data, combined with regional geological constraints and interpreted with inverse and forward model of sediment deposition and burial reheating, suggest that the occurrence of ca. 4–2.7 km and ca. 4–2.3 km of vertical exhumation initiated at ca. 30–25 Ma and 40–35 Ma in the eastern and western HXB respectively. The initial differential exhumation of the eastern HXB and the western HXB might be controlled by the oblique subduction of the Qaidam block beneath the HXB. The initial exhumation timing in the northern Tibetan Plateau is younger than that in the south‐central parts. This reveals an episodic exhumation of the Tibetan Plateau compared to models of synchronous Miocene exhumation of the entire plateau and the early Eocene exhumation of the northern Tibetan Plateau shortly after the India–Asia collision. One possible mechanism to account for outward growth is crustal shortening. A simple model of uplift and exhumation would predict a maximum of 0.8 km of surface uplift after upper crustal shortening during 30–27 Ma, which is insufficient to explain the high elevations currently observed. One way to increase elevation without changing exhumation rates and to decouple uplift from upper crustal shortening is through the combined effects of continental subduction, mantle lithosphere removal and magmatic inflation.

Dai, Jin‐Gen↗

Modelling individual variability in growth of bull trout in the Walla Walla River Basin using a hierarchical von Bertalanffy growth model

Abstract We examined growth in length of fluvial bull trout ( Salvelinus confluentus ) in the Walla Walla River Basin, Washington and Oregon. Our objectives were to quantify individual variability in growth; examine growth within and among years, life history forms, life stages and sexes; and estimate von Bertalanffy growth parameters. Individual variability was evaluated by modelling asymptotic length ( L ∞ ) and the growth coefficient ( k ) as random variables. All models were fit with Bayesian methods and were evaluated for fit by the deviance information criterion. By incorporating individual variability, population‐level estimates of L ∞ and k appeared appropriate and estimated growth trajectories for specific bull trout fit individual observed patterns in growth. Growth trajectories and positive correlation between individual estimates of L ∞ and k suggest that some individuals grow at a faster rate and reach a larger maximum size than other individuals and those differences are maintained throughout life. Selected models suggest that fluvial migrants have higher estimates of L ∞ and k than residents, but there were only slight differences in parameter estimates among migrants from two adjacent spawning populations in the Walla Walla River Basin, as well as between males and females. Growth rates increased for fluvial migrants after subadult emigration. Individual variability in growth is consistent with the life history diversity assumed essential for bull trout population persistence. Quantifying this variability is important for modelling population dynamics and viability to conserve this threatened species.

Harris, Julianne E.↗

Utility of parentage‐based tagging for monitoring Coho salmon ( Oncorhynchus kisutch ) in the interior Columbia River basin

Abstract By the 1980s, after decades of declining numbers in the mid‐1900s, Coho salmon ( Oncorhynchus kisutch ) were considered extirpated from the interior Columbia River. In the mid‐1990s, the Confederated Tribes of the Umatilla Indian Reservation, the Confederated Tribes and Bands of the Yakama Nation, and the Nez Perce Tribe began successful reintroduction programs of Coho salmon upstream of Bonneville Dam, but which were initially sourced from lower Columbia River hatcheries. Here we present the first Coho salmon parentage‐based tagging (PBT) baseline from seven hatchery programs located in the interior Columbia River basin, and two sites at or downstream of Bonneville Dam, composed of over 32,000 broodstock samples. Analyses of baseline collections revealed that genetic structure followed a temporal pattern based on 3‐year broodlines rather than geographic location or stocking history. Across hatchery programs, similar levels of genetic diversity was present. The PBT baseline provided multiple direct applications such as identification of origin for Coho salmon collected in a mixed stock at Priest Rapids Dam and the detection of the proportion and distribution of hatchery‐origin fish on the spawning grounds in the Methow River basin. The PBT baseline for Coho salmon is freely available for use and can be downloaded from FishGen.net .

Horn, Rebekah L.↗

Basin Assessment Spatial Planning Platform

The tool is intended to facilitate hydropower development and water resource planning by improving synthesis and interpretation of disparate spatial datasets that are considered in development actions (e.g., hydrological characteristics, environmentally and culturally sensitive areas, existing or proposed water power resources, climate-informed forecasts). The tool enables this capability by providing a unique framework for assimilating, relating, summarizing, and visualizing disparate spatial data through the use of spatial aggregation techniques, relational geodatabase platforms, and an interactive web-based Geographic Information Systems (GIS). Data are aggregated and related based on shared intersections with a common spatial unit; in this case, industry-standard hydrologic drainage areas for the U.S. (National Hydrography Dataset) are used as the spatial unit to associate planning data. This process is performed using all available scalar delineations of drainage areas (i.e., region, sub-region, basin, sub-basin, watershed, sub-watershed, catchment) to create spatially hierarchical relationships among planning data and drainages. These entity-relationships are stored in a relational geodatabase that provides back-end structure to the web GIS and its widgets. The full technology stack was built using all open-source software in modern programming languages. Interactive widgets that function within the viewport are also compatible with all modern browsers.

Source record↗

“Godzilla,” the Extreme African Dust Event of June 2020: Origins, Transport, and Impact on Air Quality in the Greater Caribbean Basin

In June 2020, the tropical Atlantic and the Caribbean Basin were affected by a series of African dust outbreaks unprecedented in size and intensity. These events, informally named “Godzilla,” coincided with CALIMA, a large field campaign, offering a rare opportunity to assess the impact of African dust on air quality in the Greater Caribbean Basin. Network measurements of respirable particles (i.e., PM 10 and PM 2.5 ) showed that dust significantly degraded regional air quality and increased the risk to public health in the Caribbean, the southern United States, northern South America, and Central America. CALIMA examined the meteorological context of Godzilla dust events over North Africa and how these conditions might relate to the greatly increased dust emissions and enhanced transport to the Americas. Godzilla was linked to strong pressure anomalies over West Africa, resulting in a large-scale geostrophic wind anomaly at 700 hPa over North Africa. We used surface-based and columnar measurements to test the performance of two frequently used aerosol forecast models: the NASA Goddard Earth Observing System (GEOS) and Weather Research and Forecasting Model coupled with Chemistry (WRF-Chem) models. The models showed some skills but differed substantially between their forecasts, suggesting large uncertainties in these forecasts that are critical for issuing early warnings of health-threatening dust events. Our results demonstrate the value of an integrated approach in characterizing the spatial and temporal variability of African dust transport and assessing its impact on regional air quality. Future studies are needed to improve models and to track the long-term changes in dust transport from Africa under a changing climate.

Aerosols/particulates↗

Estimation of Tropical Cyclone Intensity in the North Atlantic and Northeastern Pacific Basins Using TRMM Satellite Passive Microwave Observations

Here, a statistical passive microwave intensity estimation (PMW-IE) algorithm for estimating the intensity of tropical cyclones (TCs) in the North Atlantic and northeastern and central Pacific basins is developed and tested. The algorithm is derived from Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) Microwave Imager (TMI) 85-GHz brightness temperatures and near-surface rain-rate retrievals to provide objective estimates of current maximum sustained surface winds (Vmax) and 6-h future Vmax of TCs. The full record of TRMM data (1998–2013) including 2326 TMI overpasses of 503 TCs is separated into dependent samples (1998–2010) for model development and independent samples (2011–13) for model verification. The best track intensities are used as dependent variables in a stepwise multiple-regression approach. Separately for each basin, three regression models are derived using selected 1) 85-GHz-only variables, 2) rain-rate-only variables, and 3) combined 85-GHz and rain variables. The algorithms are assessed using independent samples and those with contemporaneous aircraft-reconnaissance measurements. Rain-only and combined models perform better than the 85-GHz-only model. Lower errors are found for estimating the 6-h future Vmax than estimating the current Vmax using all three models. This implies that it is optimal to use passive-microwave-retrieved rain variables observed a few hours earlier to estimate TC intensity. The MAE (RMSE) of 6-h future Vmax is 9 (12) kt (1 kt ≈ 0.51 m s -1 ) when testing the combined models with ATL and EPA independent samples. Aircraft-reconnaissance-based independent samples yields a MAE of 9.6 kt and RMSE of 12.6 kt for estimating 6-h future Vmax.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Spatial Variability of Winds and HRRR–NCEP Model Error Statistics at Three Doppler-Lidar Sites in the Wind-Energy Generation Region of the Columbia River Basin

Annually and seasonally averaged wind profiles from three Doppler lidars were gathered from sites in the Columbia River basin of east-central Oregon and Washington, a major region of wind-energy production, for the Second Wind Forecast Improvement Project (WFIP2) experiment. The profile data are used to quantify the spatial variability of wind flows in this area of complex terrain, to assess the HRRR-NCEP model's ability to capture spatial and temporal variability of wind profiles, and to evaluate model errors. Annually averaged measured wind speed differences over the 70-km extent of the lidar measurements reached 1 m s -1 within the wind-turbine rotor layer, and 2 m s -1 for 200-500 m AGL. Stronger wind speeds in the lowest 500 m occurred at sites higher in elevation, farther from the river, and farther west - closer to the Cascade Mountain barrier. Validating against the lidar data, the HRRR model underestimated strong wind speeds (>12 m s -1 ) and, consequently, their frequency of occurrence, especially at the two lowest-elevation sites, producing annual low biases in rotor-layer wind speed of 0.5 m s -1 . The RMSE between measured and modeled winds at all sites was about 3 m s -1 and did not degrade significantly with forecast lead time. The nature of the model errors was different for different seasons. Furthermore, although the three sites were located in the same basin terrain, the nature of the model errors was different at each site. Thus, if only one of the sites had been instrumented, different conclusions would have been drawn as to the major sources of model error, depending on where the measurements were made.

17 WIND ENERGY↗