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At least 703 records · Page 39

Quantifying the relative contribution of factors to household vehicle miles of travel

Household vehicle miles of travel (VMT) has been exhibiting a steady growth in post-recession years in the United States and has reached record levels in 2017. With transportation accounting for 27 percent of greenhouse gas emissions, planning professionals are increasingly seeking ways to curb vehicular travel to advance sustainable, vibrant, and healthy communities. Although there is considerable understanding of the various factors that influence household vehicular travel, there is little knowledge of their relative contribution to explaining variance in household VMT. This paper presents a holistic analysis to identify the relative contribution of socio-economic and demographic characteristics, built environment attributes, residential self-selection effects, and social and spatial dependency effects in explaining household VMT production. The modeling framework employs a simultaneous equations model of residential location (density) choice and household VMT generation. The analysis is performed using household travel survey data from the New York metropolitan region. Model results showed insignificant spatial dependency effects, with socio-demographic variables explaining 33 percent, density (as a key measure of built environment attributes) explaining 12 percent, and self-selection effects explaining 11 percent of the total variance in the logarithm of household VMT. The remaining 44 percent remains unexplained and attributable to omitted variables and unobserved idiosyncratic factors, calling for further research in this domain to better understand the relative contribution of various drivers of household VMT.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Diagnosing conditional anthropogenic contributions to heavy Colorado rainfall in September 2013

The Colorado floods of September 2013 caused severe damage and fatalities, and resulted from prolonged heavy rainfall unusual for that time of year – both in its record-breaking amounts and associated weather systems. We investigate the possible role of anthropogenic climate change in this extreme event. The unusual hydrometeorology of the event, however, challenges standard frameworks for attributing extreme events to anthropogenic climate change, because they typically struggle to simulate and connect the large-scale meteorology associated with local weather processes. Therefore we instead employ a part dynamical modelling- part observational- based event attribution approach, which simulates regional Colorado rainfall conditional on boundary conditions prescribed from the observed synoptic-scale meteorology in September 2013 – and assumes these conditions would have been similar in the absence of anthropogenic forcing. Using this ‘conditional event attribution’ approach we find that our regional climate model simulations indicate that anthropogenic drivers increased the magnitude of heavy northeast Colorado rainfall for the wet week in September 2013 by 30%, with the occurrence probability of a week at least that wet increasing by at least a factor of 1.3. By comparing the convective and large-scale components of rainfall, we find that this increase resulted in part from the additional moisture-carrying capacity of a warmer atmosphere – allowing more intense local convective rainfall that induced a dynamical positive feedback in the existing larger scale moisture flow – and also in part from additional moisture transport associated with larger scale circulation change. Our approach precludes assessment of changes in the frequency of the observed synoptic meteorological conditions themselves, and thus does not assess the effect of anthropogenic climate drivers on the statistics of heavy Colorado rainfall events. However, tailoring analysis tools to diagnose particular aspects of localized extreme weather events, conditional on the observed large-scale meteorology, can prove useful for diagnosing the physical effects of anthropogenic climate change on severe weather events – especially given large uncertainties in assessments of anthropogenic driven changes in atmospheric circulation.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Multiscale Catalytic Fast Pyrolysis of Grindelia Reveals Opportunities for Generating Low Oxygen Content Bio-Oils from Drought Tolerant Biomass

Grindelia squarrosa (curlycup gumweed) biomass possesses unique biochemistry, cell wall composition, and leaf architecture tailored for prolific growth in arid and semiarid climates. Most notably, this plant has developed high levels of extractable resins that have high effective H/C eff ratios ((mol H - 2 x mol O)/mol C), which is hypothesized to lead to low coke formation during catalytic fast pyrolysis (CFP) over the ZSM-5 catalyst. In microscale experiments with high ZSM-5 loadings (biomass-to-catalyst mass ratio (B/C) ~ 0.1), in situ CFP generated high yields of aromatic hydrocarbons (30% carbon yield) while ex situ CFP favored aliphatic hydrocarbons (25% carbon yield). The difference between the two configurations was attributed to the constant catalyst temperature during ex situ CFP. Deactivation leading to partially deoxygenated vapor products occurred rapidly until B/C ≤ 0.5 by the adsorption of organic species blocking access to acid sites inside the micropores of the catalyst. This was followed by more gradual deactivation leading to primary vapor breakthrough, which we attribute to coke formation on acid sites on the external surface of ZSM-5 crystallites. Noncatalytic fast pyrolysis of Grindelia in a bench scale reactor produced oils with oxygen content (18 wt % on dry basis) and carbon yield (33%) comparable to those of CFP of woody biomass. The CFP of Grindelia further reduced the oxygen content to 7 wt % for in situ CFP and 4 wt % for ex situ CFP at B/C of 2-3. The good deoxygenation was attributed to a combination of a high H/C eff ratio and overall better quality of the pyrolysis vapors that were passed over the ZSM-5 catalyst. The high inorganic content of the Grindelia likely catalyzed pyrolysis to remove oxygenated coke precursors. This integrated CFP study demonstrated that Grindelia could be an important feedstock for generating stabilized noncatalytic and CFP oils for downstream processing into fuels and/or extraction of high-value chemicals. The preprocessing of this feedstock will be required to remove inorganics, which cause an irreversible deactivation of ZSM-5.

BIOMASS FUELS↗

Deciphering the Solvation Structure of Aqueous ZnCl 2 Solutions from X-ray Absorption Spectra Using the Interpretable Graph Neural Network

Machine learning (ML) provides powerful pathways for predicting spectroscopic observables from atomic structures, but its broader impact depends on making model predictions interpretable in terms of physical and chemical principles. Here, we introduce a physics-guided graph neural network (GNN) model that predicts Zn K-edge X-ray spectroscopy (XAS) spectra of aqueous ZnCl 2 solutions. Training data are generated from ab initio XAS calculations on molecular dynamics snapshots obtained using a machine learning interatomic potential. The GNN reproduces experimental spectra across concentrations from dilute (<0.1 m) to highly concentrated (30 m, “water-in-salt”) regimes and scales efficiently to large, disordered liquid systems beyond the reach of conventional ab initio approaches. Gradient-based attribution analysis reveals that the model learns physically meaningful structure-spectrum relationships. Ligand-specific attributions reflect orbital hybridization patterns and the origin of the excitations derived from the density functional theory. Bond-length attributions recover spectral shifts consistent with multiple-scattering theory. Finally, this work bridges data-driven prediction with electronic-structure theory, establishing a general paradigm for interpretable ML that links atomic structure, electronic structure, and spectroscopic observables.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗

Energetics of Au Adsorption and Film Growth on Pt(111) by Single-Crystal Adsorption Calorimetry

Bimetallic catalysts are an important class of heterogeneous catalysts with catalytic properties distinct from either of their bulk metal constituents. The structural, electronic, chemisorptive, and catalytic properties of bimetallic surfaces have been widely studied. Surface reactivity often correlates with adsorption energy of one metal on a single-crystal surface of the other as measured using temperature-programmed desorption (TPD). However, TPD only works for systems where the metals are immiscible. For bimetallic systems that form an alloy or intermetallic compound, TPD generally fails because the adsorbed metal penetrates into the bulk upon heating. The metal-on-metal adsorption energy is unmeasured for all but one such system previously but often calculated because these adlayers often have interesting catalytic properties. We report here calorimetric measurements of the adsorption energy versus coverage of an adlayer of one metal on another for such a bimetallic system, where the metals prefer to alloy: Au on Pt(111). This bimetallic combination is important in catalysis and electrocatalysis. The first monolayer (ML) of Au grows pseudomorphically with the Pt(111) surface at 300 K, with an average heat of adsorption of 389, ~21 kJ/mol greater than the bulk heat of sublimation of Au. The heat increases with coverage by ~11 kJ/mol in the first 0.03 ML and then by another ~2 kJ/mol up to a maximum of 395 kJ/mol at 0.7 ML, and it then decreases to near the bulk heat of sublimation (368 kJ/mol) at 1 ML. The increase in heat is attributed to the increase in size of the two-dimensional Au islands that nucleate at a very low coverage and their corresponding increase in the average number of Au–Au nearest neighbor bonds. The high-coverage decrease in heat is attributed to the buildup of strain associated with the 4% Au/Pt lattice mismatch. Finally, the second and possibly third layers of Au show similar but much smaller oscillations in heat around 370 kJ/mol, attributed to the same two effects.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Confined Lithium–Sulfur Reactions in Narrow-Diameter Carbon Nanotubes Reveal Enhanced Electrochemical Reactivity

Here, we demonstrate an unusual electrochemical reaction of sulfur with lithium upon encapsulation in narrow-diameter (subnanometer) single-walled carbon nanotubes (SWNTs). Our study provides mechanistic insight on the synergistic effects of sulfur confinement and Li + ion solvation properties that culminate in a new mechanism of these sub-nanoscale-enabled reactions (which cannot be solely attributed to the lithiation–delithiation of conventional sulfur). Two types of SWNTs with distinct diameters, produced by electric arc (EA-SWNTs, average diameter 1.55 nm) or high-pressure carbon monoxide (HiPco-SWNTs, average diameter 1.0 nm), are investigated with two comparable electrolyte systems based on tetraethylene glycol dimethyl ether (TEGDME) and 1,4,7,10,13-pentaoxacyclopentadecane (15-crown-5). Electrochemical analyses indicate that a conventional solution-phase Li–S reaction occurs in EA-SWNTs, which can be attributed to the smaller solvated [Li(TEGDME)] + and [Li(15-crown-5)] + ions within the EA-SWNT diameter. In stark contrast, the Li–S confined in narrower diameter HiPco-SWNTs exhibits unusual electrochemical behavior that can be attributed to a solid-state reaction enabled by the smaller HiPco-SWNT diameter compared to the size of solvated Li + ions. Our results of the electrochemical analyses are corroborated and supported with various spectroscopic analyses including operando Raman, X-ray photoelectron spectroscopy, and first-principles calculations from density functional theory. Taken together, our findings demonstrate that the controlled solid-state lithiation–delithiation of sulfur and an enhanced electrochemical reactivity can be achieved by sub-nanoscale encapsulation and one-dimensional confinement in narrow-diameter SWNTs.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗

Wedge-Shaped Hopper Design for Milled Woody Biomass Flow

The bioenergy industry has been challenged by unstable flow and transport of milled biomass in material handling operations. Handling issues such as hopper clogging and auger jamming are attributed to knowledge gaps between existing handling units designed for bulk solids and their suitability for milled biomass with high compressibility. This work investigates various flow behaviors of granular woody biomass in wedge-shaped hoppers. Herein, hopper flow physical experiments and numerical simulations are conducted to study the influence of the critical material attributes and critical processing parameters on the flow pattern, arching, and throughput. The results show that (1) the preferred flow pattern, mass flow, can be achieved by controlling the material’s internal friction angle, hopper inclination, and hopper wall friction; (2) hopper arching, governed by the competing gravity-driven force against flow resistance from material internal friction and material–wall friction, can be controlled by the hopper wall friction angle and the inclination angle; and (3) flow throughput can be accurately estimated from our empirical equation with inputs of hopper outlet geometry and particle-scale to bulk-scale material attributes. This study elucidates woody biomass flow physics and provides guidance for industrial equipment design.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗

Mo Atom Rearrangement Drives Layer-Dependent Reactivity in Two-Dimensional MoS 2

Two-dimensional (2D) materials offer a valuable platform for manipulating and studying chemical reactions at the atomic level, owing to the ease of controlling their microscopic structure at the nanometer scale. While extensive research has been conducted on the structure-dependent chemical activity of 2D materials, the influence of structural transformation during the reaction has remained largely unexplored. In this work, we report the layer-dependent chemical reactivity of MoS 2 during a nitridation atomic substitution reaction and attribute it to the rearrangement of Mo atoms. Our results show that the chemical reactivity of MoS 2 decreases as the number of layers is reduced in the few-layer regime. In particular, monolayer MoS 2 exhibits significantly lower reactivity compared with its few-layer and multilayer counterparts. Atomic-resolution transmission electron microscopy (TEM) reveals that MoN nanonetworks form as reaction products from monolayer and bilayer MoS 2 , with the continuity of the MoN crystals increasing with layer number, consistent with the local conductivity mapping data. The layer-dependent reactivity is attributed to the relative stability of the hypothetically formed MoN phase, which retains the number of Mo atomic layers present in the precursor. Specifically, the low chemical reactivity of monolayer MoS 2 is attributed to the high energy cost associated with Mo atom diffusion and migration necessary to form multilayer Mo lattices in the thermodynamically stable MoN phase. In conclusion, this study underscores the critical role of lattice rearrangement in governing chemical reactivity and highlights the potential of 2D materials as versatile platforms for advancing the understanding of materials chemistry at the atomic scale.

Chemical reactivity↗

Control of Architecture in Rhombic Dodecahedral Pt–Ni Nanoframe Electrocatalysts

Platinum-based alloys are known to demonstrate advanced properties in electrochemical reactions that are relevant for proton exchange membrane fuel cells and electrolyzers. Further development of Pt alloy electrocatalysts relies on the design of architectures with highly active surfaces and optimized utilization of the expensive element, Pt. For this study, we show that the three-dimensional Pt anisotropy of Pt-Ni rhombic dodecahedra can be tuned by controlling the ratio between Pt and Ni precursors such that either a completely hollow nanoframe or a new architecture, the excavated nanoframe, can be obtained. The excavated nanoframe showed ~10 times higher specific and ~6 times higher mass activity for the oxygen reduction reaction than Pt/C, and twice the mass activity of the hollow nanoframe. The high activity is attributed to enhanced Ni content in the near-surface region and the extended two-dimensional sheet structure within the nanoframe that minimizes the number of buried Pt sites.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Rifting Processes at a Continent‐Ocean Transition Rift Revealed by Fault Analysis: Example of Dabbahu‐Manda‐Hararo Rift (Ethiopia)

Abstract Analyses of fault attributes have contributed to unraveling fault growth processes in diverse tectonic settings. By integrating such analysis at the scale of a fault population, we propose to investigate the characteristics of a rift that has evolved up to a stage typical of a continent‐ocean transition. We address this problem by considering Dabbahu‐Manda‐Hararo (DMH) rift segment (Central Afar, Ethiopia), recognized for being in a late rifting stage. We quantify fault azimuth, length, and throw attributes for 668 normal faults. Along DMH rift, the mean fault density is 0.87 ± 0.7 km/km 2 and the median tectonic strain ranges from 1.8% to 3.1% assuming a fault dip of 60° and 45°, respectively. Maximum tectonic strain (>10%) is found where the rift azimuth changes. Along‐rift variations in fault azimuth, length, and scaling relationships suggest a different stage of rifting in the northern part of the rift. We show that this difference can be attributed to the influence of the Dabbahu volcano located at the northern tip of the rift, which captured the propagating Manda‐Hararo rift in the last ~100 kyr. The morpho‐tectonic analysis reveals numerous common features with slow‐spreading ridge segments, such as the Lucky Strike segment located along the Mid‐Atlantic ridge (segment length, spreading rate, associated magmatic system) but also with intermediate and fast ones (axial valley, fault throws, and diking). This study reveals that a rift at the continent‐ocean transition may be characterized by a transient and evolutionary behavior that shares features with oceanic ridges from slow‐ to fast‐spreading rates.

Dumont, S.↗

The Contribution of Subtropical Moisture Within an Atmospheric River on Moisture Flux, Cloud Structure, and Precipitation Over the Salmon River Mountains of Idaho Using Moisture Tracers

The impact of an atmospheric river (AR) on the flux of subtropical moisture across Idaho's Salmon River Mountains and precipitation over the mountains is evaluated using the Weather, Research, and Forecasting model with water vapor tracers (WRF-WVT). The AR impacted Idaho between 17 and 19 January 2017 during the Seeded and Natural Orographic Wintertime Clouds: The Idaho Experiment (SNOWIE) campaign. WRF-WVT is configured to isolate the subtropical moisture contribution to the AR, the moisture flux, and precipitation. Subtropical water vapor advected by the AR into Idaho is tagged and tracked in three-dimensional space throughout the run. This allows the contribution of the subtropical moisture to the vertical distribution of water vapor and the precipitation to be directly calculated. The simulated cloud structure is compared with airborne radar data collected during two SNOWIE intensive operation periods. This study found that more than 70% of the moisture flux and more than 80% of the precipitation across the Idaho Mountains during SNOWIE IOP 4 could be attributed to subtropical moisture within the AR. Nearly all of the moisture flux in the upper cloud and 50% of the moisture in the lower cloud was attributable to the subtropical moisture. The subtropical moisture contribution within the AR to precipitation ranged from 35% in northern Idaho to more than 90% in southern Idaho. Across the entire period of impact of the AR, more than 60% of precipitation in Idaho was attributable to the subtropical moisture within the AR, with this percentage increasing toward the south across the state.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Co-Occurring Atmospheric Features and Their Contributions to Precipitation Extremes

Object-based identification algorithms for atmospheric features are commonly utilized to attribute global precipitation. This study employs a systematic approach to examine feature co-occurrences and their relationships to mean and extreme precipitation. Four features are identified using existing data sets for atmospheric rivers (ARs), mesoscale convective systems (MCSs), low-pressure systems (LPSs), and fronts (FTs). Often, a single atmospheric phenomenon satisfies the criteria set by multiple feature identification algorithms, yielding an association between precipitation and multiple features. Over the extra-tropics, the number of features attributed to a single event typically increases with precipitation intensity. Over two-thirds of the precipitation is from co-occurring features, with a considerable fraction related to AR-FT co-occurrences. Over the tropics, about one-quarter of precipitation is associated with co-occurring features, with LPS-MCS co-occurrences contributing substantially in monsoon regions. MCSs are the leading single-feature contributors over tropical land and oceans. In the extra-tropics, FTs, ARs, and their co-occurrences account for over half of the total precipitation over oceans. AR-FT-MCS and FT-MCS co-occurrences contribute to extremes (precipitation exceeding the 95th percentile) over both oceans (over 30%) and land (over 20%). Any combination of features involving MCSs shows a larger contribution to high percentiles of precipitation intensity. A case analysis indicates that AR-FT-MCS co-occurrences exhibit convective instability and deep vertical motion, suggesting that the feature trackers and reanalysis are capturing physics relevant to both convective and frontal systems. The results here emphasize the need for simultaneous identifications of multiple features when attributing precipitation to atmospheric phenomena.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Human-induced greening of the northern extratropical land surface

Significant land greening in the northern extratropical latitudes (NEL) has been documented from satellite observations during the past three decades. This enhanced vegetation growth has broad implications for surface energy, water and carbon budgets, and ecosystem services across multiple scales. Discernible human impacts on the Earth’s climate system have been revealed by using statistical frameworks of detection–attribution. These impacts, however, were not previously identified on the NEL greening signal, owing to the lack of long-term observational records, possible bias of satellite data, different algorithms used to calculate vegetation greenness, and the lack of suitable simulations from coupled Earth system models (ESMs). Here we have overcome these challenges to attribute recent changes in NEL vegetation activity. We have used two 30-year-long remote-sensing-based leaf area index (LAI) data sets, simulations from 19 coupled ESMs with interactive vegetation, and a formal detection and attribution algorithm. Our findings reveal that the observed greening record is consistent with an assumption of anthropogenic forcings, where greenhouse gases play a dominant role, but is not consistent with simulations that include only natural forcings and internal climate variability. These results provide the first clear evidence of a discernible human fingerprint on physiological vegetation changes other than phenology and range shifts.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Enhancing fatigue life by ductile-transformable multicomponent B2 precipitates in a high-entropy alloy

Catastrophic accidents caused by fatigue failures often occur in engineering structures. Thus, a fundamental understanding of cyclic-deformation and fatigue-failure mechanisms is critical for the development of fatigue-resistant structural materials. Here we report a high-entropy alloy with enhanced fatigue life by ductile-transformable multicomponent B2 precipitates. Its cyclic-deformation mechanisms are revealed by real-time in-situ neutron diffraction, transmission-electron microscopy, crystal-plasticity modeling, and Monte-Carlo simulations. Multiple cyclic-deformation mechanisms, including dislocation slips, precipitation strengthening, deformation twinning, and reversible martensitic phase transformation, are observed in the studied high-entropy alloy. Its improved fatigue performance at low strain amplitudes, i.e., the high fatigue-crack-initiation resistance, is attributed to the high elasticity, plastic deformability, and martensitic transformation of the B2-strengthening phase. This study shows that fatigue-resistant alloys can be developed by incorporating strengthening ductile-transformable multicomponent intermetallic phases.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Delineation of endorheic drainage basins in the MERIT-Plus dataset for 5 and 15 minute upscaled river networks

Abstract The MERIT-Hydro networks re-gridded by the Iterative Hydrography Upscaling (IHU) algorithm do not retain exo- or endorheic basin attributes from the original data. Here we developed methods to assign such attributes to those and any other digital river networks. The motivation is that endorheic inland drainage basins are essential for hydrologic modelling of global and regional water balances, land surface water storage, gravity anomalies, sea level rise, etc. First, we create basin attributes that explicitly label endorheic and exorheic catchments by the criteria of direct or hidden connectivity to the ocean without changing their flow direction grid. In the second step we alter the delineation of endorheic basins by the merging algorithm that eliminates small inland watersheds to the adjacent host basins. The resulting datasets have a significantly reduced number of endorheic basins while preserving the total land portion and topology of the inland basins. The data was validated using the Water Balance Model by comparing volume of endorheic inland depressions with modelled water accumulation in their inland lakes.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

The role of the substrate on the dispersion in accumulation in III-V compound semiconductor based metal-oxide-semiconductor gate stacks

Dispersion in accumulation is a widely observed phenomenon in metal-oxide-semiconductor gate stacks based on III-V compound semiconductors. The physical origin of this phenomenon is attributed to border traps located in the dielectric material adjacent to the semiconductor. Here, we study the role of the semiconductor substrate on the electrical quality of the first layers at atomic layer deposited (ALD) dielectrics. For this purpose, either Al{sub 2}O{sub 3} or HfO{sub 2} dielectrics with variable thicknesses were deposited simultaneously on two technology important semiconductors—InGaAs and InP. Significantly larger dispersion was observed in InP based gate stacks compared to those based on InGaAs. The observed difference is attributed to a higher border trap density in dielectrics deposited on InP compared to those deposited on InGaAs. We therefore conclude that the substrate plays an important role in the determination of the electrical quality of the first dielectric monolayers deposited by ALD. An additional observation is that larger dispersion was obtained in HfO{sub 2} based capacitors compared to Al{sub 2}O{sub 3} based capacitors, deposited on the same semiconductor. This phenomenon is attributed to the lower conduction band offset rather than to a higher border trap density.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗

Ultra-wide bandgap β-Ga 2 O 3 films: Optical, phonon, and temperature response properties

Optical and phonon interactions of Ga 2 O 3 thin films with nanocrystalline morphology were studied at extreme temperatures. The films were grown using a sputtering technique and analyzed via temperature response transmission, Raman scattering, and high-resolution deep-UV photoluminescence (PL). Raman modes indicated that the structure corresponds to the β-phase. The optical-gap at the range of 77–620 K exhibited a redshift of ~200 meV, with a temperature coefficient of ~0.4 meV/K. The optical-gap at room-temperature is 4.85 eV. The electron–phonon interaction model at that temperature range pointed to a low energy phonon, ~31 meV, that is involved in the thermal properties of the optical-gap. Detailed Urbach energy analysis indicated that defects are the dominant mechanism controlling the band-edge characteristics even at an elevated temperature regime where phonon dominance is usually expected. Defects are attributed to the disordered forms of graphite that were detected via Raman scattering and to the granular morphology of the film. A deep-UV laser with an above bandgap exaction line of 5.1 eV was employed to map the PL of the films. The highly resolved spectra, even at room-temperature, show a strong emission of ~3.56 eV attributed to self-trapped holes (STHs). The STH is discussed and modeled in terms of the self-trapped exciton. Moreover, a very distinct but low-intensity emission was found at 4.85 eV that agrees with the value of the optical-gap and is attributed to bandgap recombination. The intensity ratio between the STH and that of the bandgap was found to be 6:1.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Quantifying the influence of global warming on unprecedented extreme climate events

Significance Extreme climate events have increased in many regions. Efforts to test the influence of global warming on individual events have also increased, raising the possibility of operational, real-time, single-event attribution. We apply four attribution metrics to four climate variables at each available point on a global grid. We find that historical global warming has increased the severity and probability of the hottest monthly and daily events at more than 80% of the observed area and has increased the probability of the driest and wettest events at approximately half of the observed area. Our results suggest that scientifically durable operational attribution is possible but they also highlight the importance of carefully diagnosing and testing the physical causes of individual events.

Diffenbaugh, Noah S.↗