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At least 703 records · Page 39
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2020

Iron and iron-bound phosphate accumulate in surface soils of ice-wedge polygons in arctic tundra

Phosphorus (P) is a limiting or co-limiting nutrient to plants and microorganisms in diverse ecosystems that include the arctic tundra. Certain soil minerals can adsorb or co-precipitate with phosphate, and this mineral-bound P provides a potentially large P reservoir in soils. Iron (Fe) oxyhydroxides have a high capacity to adsorb phosphate; however, the ability of Fe oxyhydroxides to adsorb phosphate and limit P bioavailability in organic tundra soils is not known. In this study, we examined the depth distribution of soil Fe and P species in the active layer (<30 cm) of low-centered and high-centered ice-wedge polygons at the Barrow Environmental Observatory on the Alaska North Slope. Soil reservoirs of Fe and P in bulk horizons and in narrower depth increments were characterized using sequential chemical extractions and synchrotron-based X-ray absorption spectroscopy (XAS). Organic horizons across all polygon features ( e.g. , trough, ridge, and center) were enriched in extractable Fe and P relative to mineral horizons. Soil Fe was dominated by organic-bound Fe and short-range ordered Fe oxyhydroxides, while soil P was primarily associated with oxides and organic matter in organic horizons but apatite and/or calcareous minerals in mineral horizons. Iron oxyhydroxides and Fe-bound inorganic P (P i ) were most enriched at the soil surface and decreased gradually with depth, and Fe-bound P i was >4× greater than water-soluble P i . These results demonstrate that Fe-bound P i is a large and ecologically important reservoir of phosphate. We contend that Fe oxyhydroxides and other minerals may regulate P i solubility under fluctuating redox conditions in organic surface soils on the arctic tundra.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Range shifts in a foundation sedge potentially induce large Arctic ecosystem carbon losses and gains

Foundation species have disproportionately large impacts on ecosystem structure and function. As a result, future changes to their distribution may be important determinants of ecosystem carbon (C) cycling in a warmer world. We assessed the role of a foundation tussock sedge (Eriophorum vaginatum) as a climatically vulnerable C stock using field data, a machine learning ecological niche model, and an ensemble of terrestrial biosphere models (TBMs). Field data indicated that tussock density has decreased by ~0.97 tussocks per m2 over the past ~38 years on Alaska's North Slope from ~1981 to 2019. This declining trend is concerning because tussocks are a large Arctic C stock, which enhances soil organic layer C stocks by 6.9% on average and represents 745 Tg C across our study area. By 2100, we project that changes in tussock density may decrease the tussock C stock by 41% in regions where tussocks are currently abundant (e.g. -0.8 tussocks per m2 and -85 Tg C on the North Slope) and may increase the tussock C stock by 46% in regions where tussocks are currently scarce (e.g. +0.9 tussocks per m2 and +81 Tg C on Victoria Island). These climate-induced changes to the tussock C stock were comparable to, but sometimes opposite in sign, to vegetation C stock changes predicted by an ensemble of TBMs. Our results illustrate the important role of tussocks as a foundation species in determining future Arctic C stocks and highlight the need for better representation of this species in TBMs..

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Evaluating the impact of peat soils and snow schemes on simulated active layer thickness at pan-Arctic permafrost sites

Abstract Permafrost stability is significantly influenced by the thermal buffering effects of snow and active-layer peat soils. In the warm season, peat soils act as a barrier to downward heat transfer mainly due to their low thermal conductivity. In the cold season, the snowpack serves as a thermal insulator, retarding the release of heat from the soil to the atmosphere. Currently, many global land models overestimate permafrost soil temperature and active layer thickness (ALT), partially due to inaccurate representations of soil organic matter (SOM) density profiles and snow thermal insulation. In this study, we evaluated the impacts of SOM and snow schemes on ALT simulations at pan-Arctic permafrost sites using the Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM) land model (ELM). We conducted simulations at the Circumpolar Active Layer Monitoring (CALM) sites across the pan-Arctic domain. We improved ELM-simulated site-level ALT using a knowledge-based hierarchical optimization procedure and examined the effects of precipitation-phase partitioning methods (PPMs), snow compaction schemes, and snow thermal conductivity schemes on simulated snow depth, soil temperature, ALT, and CO 2 fluxes. Results showed that the optimized ELM significantly improved agreement with observed ALT (e.g. RMSE decreased from 0.83 m to 0.15 m). Our sensitivity analysis revealed that snow-related schemes significantly impact simulated snow thermal insulation levels, soil temperature, and ALT. For example, one of the commonly used snow thermal conductivity schemes (quadratic Sturm or SturmQua) generally produced warmer soil temperatures and larger ALT compared to the other two tested schemes. The SturmQua scheme also amplified the model’s sensitivity to PPMs and predicted deeper ALTs than the other two snow schemes under both current and future climates. The study highlights the importance of accurately representing snow-related processes and peat soils in land models to enhance permafrost dynamics simulations.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Impacts of benchmarking choices on inferred model skill of the Arctic–Boreal terrestrial carbon cycle

Abstract Land surface models require continuous validation against observations to improve and reduce simulation uncertainty. However, inferred model performance can be heavily influenced by subjective choices made in the selection and application of observational data products. A key area often misrepresented by models is the Arctic–Boreal region, which is a potential tipping point region in Earth’s climate system due to large permafrost carbon stocks that are vulnerable to release with climate warming. We use the International Land Model Benchmarking (ILAMB) framework to evaluate how the model skill of TRENDY-v9 models varies based on the choice of observational-based benchmark and how benchmarks are applied in model evaluation. This analysis uses global datasets integrated into ILAMB and new, regionally-specific observational products from the Arctic–Boreal Vulnerability Experiment. Our results cover the overall time period of 1979–2019 and show that model scores can vary substantially depending on the data product applied, with higher model scores indicating better model performance against observations. The lowest model scores occur when benchmarked against regional, compared to global, datasets. We also evaluate observed and modeled functional relationships between ecosystem respiration and air temperature and between gross primary production and precipitation. Here, we find that the magnitude and shape of the responses are strongly impacted by the choice of observational dataset and the approach used to construct the functional relationship benchmark. These results suggest that model evaluation studies could conclude a false sense of model skill if only using a single benchmark data product or if not applying regional data products when performing a regional model analysis. Collectively, our findings highlight the influence of benchmarking choices on model evaluation and point to the need for benchmarking guidelines when assessing model skill.

Poe, Jeralyn (ORCID:0000000318495278)↗
DOE OSTI2024

Distinct and rich assemblages of giant viruses in Arctic and Antarctic lakes

Giant viruses (GVs) are key players in ecosystem functioning, biogeochemistry, and eukaryotic genome evolution. GV diversity and abundance in aquatic systems can exceed that of prokaryotes, but their diversity and ecology in lakes, especially polar ones, remain poorly understood. We conducted a comprehensive survey and meta-analysis of GV diversity across 20 lakes, spanning polar to temperate regions, combining our extensive lake metagenome database from the Canadian Arctic and subarctic with publicly available datasets. Leveraging a novel GV genome identification tool, we identified 3304 GV metagenome-assembled genomes, revealing lakes as untapped GV reservoirs. Phylogenomic analysis highlighted their dispersion across all Nucleocytoviricota orders. Strong GV population endemism emerged between lakes from similar regions and biomes (Antarctic and Arctic), but a polar/temperate barrier in lacustrine GV populations and differences in their gene content could be observed. Our study establishes a robust genomic reference for future investigations into lacustrine GV ecology in fast changing polar environments.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Summer thaw duration is a strong predictor of the soil microbiome and its response to permafrost thaw in arctic tundra

Abstract Climate warming has increased permafrost thaw in arctic tundra and extended the duration of annual thaw (number of thaw days in summer) along soil profiles. Predicting the microbial response to permafrost thaw depends largely on knowing how increased thaw duration affects the composition of the soil microbiome. Here, we determined soil microbiome composition from the annually thawed surface active layer down through permafrost from two tundra types at each of three sites on the North Slope of Alaska, USA. Variations in soil microbial taxa were found between sites up to ~90 km apart, between tundra types, and between soil depths. Microbiome differences at a site were greatest across transitions from thawed to permafrost depths. Results from correlation analysis based on multi‐decadal thaw surveys show that differences in thaw duration by depth were significantly, positively correlated with the abundance of dominant taxa in the active layer and negatively correlated with dominant taxa in the permafrost. Microbiome composition within the transition zone was statistically similar to that in the permafrost, indicating that recent decades of intermittent thaw have not yet induced a shift from permafrost to active‐layer microbes. We suggest that thaw duration rather than thaw frequency has a greater impact on the composition of microbial taxa within arctic soils.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Genomic insights into redox-driven microbial processes for carbon decomposition in thawing Arctic soils and permafrost

Climate change is rapidly transforming Arctic landscapes where increasing soil temperatures speed up permafrost thaw. This exposes large carbon stocks to microbial decomposition, possibly worsening climate change by releasing more greenhouse gases. Understanding how microbes break down soil carbon, especially under the anaerobic conditions of thawing permafrost, is important to determine future changes. Here, we studied the microbial community dynamics and soil carbon decomposition potential in permafrost and active layer soils under anaerobic laboratory conditions that simulated an Arctic summer thaw. The microbial and viral compositions in the samples were analyzed based on metagenomes, metagenome-assembled genomes, and metagenomic viral contigs (mVCs). Following the thawing of permafrost, there was a notable shift in microbial community structure, with fermentative Firmicutes and Bacteroidota taking over from Actinobacteria and Proteobacteria over the 60-day incubation period. The increase in iron and sulfate-reducing microbes had a significant role in limiting methane production from thawed permafrost, underscoring the competition within microbial communities. We explored the growth strategies of microbial communities and found that slow growth was the major strategy in both the active layer and permafrost. Our findings challenge the assumption that fast-growing microbes mainly respond to environmental changes like permafrost thaw. Instead, they indicate a common strategy of slow growth among microbial communities, likely due to the thermodynamic constraints of soil substrates and electron acceptors, and the need for microbes to adjust to post-thaw conditions. The mVCs harbored a wide range of auxiliary metabolic genes that may support cell protection from ice formation in virus-infected cells.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2026

Capacity of Arctic fjord sediments to degrade carbohydrates from permafrost active layer

The degradation of organic matter (OM) by microorganisms in thawing permafrost produces greenhouse gases. Terrestrial OM is transported into fjords through hydrological runoff, but it is unclear whether the microbial mechanisms of OM degradation on land persist after soils enter marine environments, which differ greatly in conditions and microbial communities. This question is particularly relevant for low-OM soils, which dominate Arctic landscapes and are more exposed to oxidants. Here, we compared OM-degrading capacity in permafrost-affected active layer soils and adjacent fjord sediments from Kongsfjorden, Svalbard, focusing on carbohydrate-active enzymes (CAZymes), which target some of the most abundant types of organic matter in soils. Using multi-omics approaches—metagenomics, metagenome-assembled genomes (MAGs), metabolomics, metatranscriptomics, and metaproteomics—we examined CAZyme presence, distribution, and activity. Despite environmental differences, both soils and sediments harbored diverse glycoside hydrolases and polysaccharide lyases, most of which showed evidence of activity. Verrucomicrobia expressed the highest number of CAZyme transcripts, indicating that they dominated active carbohydrate degradation in fjord sediments, while Acidobacteria and Actinobacteria were more active in soils. Notably, CAZymes in fjord sediments targeted primarily soil-derived OM, and the proportions of enzymes degrading terrestrial OM, marine OM, and microbial necromass—remnants of dead microbial cells were similar across both environments. These results suggest that microbial communities in both soils and fjord sediments are equipped to degrade carbohydrates, and that burial of terrestrial-derived OM in fjord sediments may not protect it from microbial breakdown under Arctic warming.

Chukwufumnanya, Abuah [University of Tennessee, Kn↗
DOE OSTI2023

Machine Learning for Daily Forecasts of Arctic Sea Ice Motion: An Attribution Assessment of Model Predictive Skill

Physics-based simulations of Arctic sea ice are highly complex, involving transport between different phases, length scales, and time scales. Resultantly, numerical simulations of sea ice dynamics have a high computational cost and model uncertainty. We employ data-driven machine learning (ML) to make predictions of sea ice motion. The ML models are built to predict present-day sea ice velocity given present-day wind velocity and previous-day sea ice concentration and velocity. Models are trained using reanalysis winds and satellite-derived sea ice properties. We compare the predictions of three different models: persistence (PS), linear regression (LR), and a convolutional neural network (CNN). We quantify the spatiotemporal variability of the correlation between observations and the statistical model predictions. Additionally, we analyze model performance in comparison to variability in properties related to ice motion (wind velocity, ice velocity, ice concentration, distance from coast, bathymetric depth) to understand the processes related to decreases in model performance. Results indicate that a CNN makes skillful predictions of daily sea ice velocity with a correlation up to 0.81 between predicted and observed sea ice velocity, while the LR and PS implementations exhibit correlations of 0.78 and 0.69, respectively. The correlation varies spatially and seasonally: lower values occur in shallow coastal regions and during times of minimum sea ice extent. LR parameter analysis indicates that wind velocity plays the largest role in predicting sea ice velocity on 1-day time scales, particularly in the central Arctic. Regions where wind velocity has the largest LR parameter are regions where the CNN has higher predictive skill than the LR.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Evaluating the Trustworthiness of Explainable Artificial Intelligence (XAI) Methods Applied to Regression Predictions of Arctic Sea Ice Motion

Abstract Recent advances in explainable artificial intelligence (XAI) methods show promise for understanding predictions made by machine learning (ML) models. XAI explains how the input features are relevant or important for the model predictions. We train linear regression (LR) and convolutional neural network (CNN) models to make 1-day predictions of sea ice velocity in the Arctic from inputs of present-day wind velocity and previous-day ice velocity and concentration. We apply XAI methods to the CNN and compare explanations to variance explained by LR. We confirm the feasibility of using a novel XAI method [i.e., global layerwise relevance propagation (LRP)] to understand ML model predictions of sea ice motion by comparing it to established techniques. We investigate a suite of linear, perturbation-based, and propagation-based XAI methods in both local and global forms. Outputs from different explainability methods are generally consistent in showing that wind speed is the input feature with the highest contribution to ML predictions of ice motion, and we discuss inconsistencies in the spatial variability of the explanations. Additionally, we show that the CNN relies on both linear and nonlinear relationships between the inputs and uses nonlocal information to make predictions. LRP shows that wind speed over land is highly relevant for predicting ice motion offshore. This provides a framework to show how knowledge of environmental variables (i.e., wind) on land could be useful for predicting other properties (i.e., sea ice velocity) elsewhere. Significance Statement Explainable artificial intelligence (XAI) is useful for understanding predictions made by machine learning models. Our research establishes trustability in a novel implementation of an explainable AI method known as layerwise relevance propagation for Earth science applications. To do this, we provide a comparative evaluation of a suite of explainable AI methods applied to machine learning models that make 1-day predictions of Arctic sea ice velocity. We use explainable AI outputs to understand how the input features are used by the machine learning to predict ice motion. Additionally, we show that a convolutional neural network uses nonlinear and nonlocal information in making its predictions. We take advantage of the nonlocality to investigate the extent to which knowledge of wind on land is useful for predicting sea ice velocity elsewhere.

Hoffman, Lauren [Scripps Institution of Oceanograp↗
DOE OSTI2021

Active virus-host interactions at sub-freezing temperatures in Arctic peat soil

Abstract Background Winter carbon loss in northern ecosystems is estimated to be greater than the average growing season carbon uptake and is primarily driven by microbial decomposers. Viruses modulate microbial carbon cycling via induced mortality and metabolic controls, but it is unknown whether viruses are active under winter conditions (anoxic and sub-freezing temperatures). Results We used stable isotope probing (SIP) targeted metagenomics to reveal the genomic potential of active soil microbial populations under simulated winter conditions, with an emphasis on viruses and virus-host dynamics. Arctic peat soils from the Bonanza Creek Long-Term Ecological Research site in Alaska were incubated under sub-freezing anoxic conditions with H 2 18 O or natural abundance water for 184 and 370 days. We sequenced 23 SIP-metagenomes and measured carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) efflux throughout the experiment. We identified 46 bacterial populations (spanning 9 phyla) and 243 viral populations that actively took up 18 O in soil and respired CO 2 throughout the incubation. Active bacterial populations represented only a small portion of the detected microbial community and were capable of fermentation and organic matter degradation. In contrast, active viral populations represented a large portion of the detected viral community and one third were linked to active bacterial populations. We identified 86 auxiliary metabolic genes and other environmentally relevant genes. The majority of these genes were carried by active viral populations and had diverse functions such as carbon utilization and scavenging that could provide their host with a fitness advantage for utilizing much-needed carbon sources or acquiring essential nutrients. Conclusions Overall, there was a stark difference in the identity and function of the active bacterial and viral community compared to the unlabeled community that would have been overlooked with a non-targeted standard metagenomic analysis. Our results illustrate that substantial active virus-host interactions occur in sub-freezing anoxic conditions and highlight viruses as a major community-structuring agent that likely modulates carbon loss in peat soils during winter, which may be pivotal for understanding the future fate of arctic soils' vast carbon stocks.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

High temporal resolution estimates of Arctic snowfall rates emphasizing gauge and radar-based retrievals from the MOSAiC expedition

This article presents the results of snowfall rate and accumulation estimates from a vertically pointing 35-GHz radar and other sensors deployed during the Multidisciplinary drifting Observatory for the Study of Arctic Climate (MOSAiC) expedition. The radar-based retrievals are the most consistent in terms of data availability and are largely immune to blowing snow. The total liquid-equivalent accumulation during the snow accumulation season is around 110 mm, with more abundant precipitation during spring months. About half of the total accumulation came from weak snowfall with rates less than approximately 0.2 mmh–1. The total snowfall estimates from a Vaisala optical sensor aboard the icebreaker are similar to those from radar retrievals, though their daily and monthly accumulations and instantaneous rates varied significantly. Compared to radar retrievals and the icebreaker optical sensor data, measurements from an identical optical sensor at an ice camp are biased high. Blowing snow effects, in part, explain differences. Weighing gauge measurements significantly overestimate snowfall during February–April 2020 as compared to other sensors and are not well suited for estimating instantaneous snowfall rates. The icebreaker optical disdrometer estimates of snowfall rates are, on average, relatively little biased compared to radar retrievals when raw particle counts are available and appropriate snowflake mass-size relations are used. These counts, however, are not available during periods that produced more than a third of the total snowfall. While there are uncertainties in the radar-based retrievals due to the choice of reflectivity-snowfall rate relations, the major error contributor is the uncertainty in the radar absolute calibration. The MOSAiC radar calibration is evaluated using comparisons with other radars and liquid water cloud–drizzle processes observed during summer. Overall, this study describes a consistent, radar-based snowfall rate product for MOSAiC that provides significant insight into Central Arctic snowfall and can be used for many other purposes.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

The LAKE model input dataset for three Arctic lakes

This dataset contains meteorological data collected for three Arctic lakes and compiled to satisfy input requirements of the LAKE 2.0 model. The dataset was generated to act as a benchmarking dataset for future model-data inter-comparisons. The LAKE 2.0 model simulates temperatures within the water later and the sedimentary layer of a lake. The LAKE2.0. is an open-source code and available to download via this weblike http://tesla.parallel.ru/Viktor/LAKE/-/wikis/LAKE-model (last visit July 14, 2021). The meteorological data are required to simulate the surface energy balance at the surface of a lake. This dataset includes a compilation of the meteorological data pulled from multiple data streams, including National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) climate data, Circumarctic Lakes Observation Network (CALON) data, and the United States Geological Survey (USGS) data. The data were compiled for three Arctic lakes: FoxDen (66.55877, -164.45670), Atqasuk (70.452497, -156.951984), and Toolik (68.63150, -149.60740). Each meteorological data is in comma-delimited format (file extension ‘.dat’) and includes eight columns: Temperature [K], Pressure [Pa], longwave downward radiation [W/m2], shortwave downward radiation [W/m2], “U” wind speed [m/s], ”V” wind speed [m/s], humidity [kg/kg], precipitation [m/s]. In addition to the meteorological data file, we included setup and driver files. The Toolik lake is the deepest out of three lakes and has inflowing and outflowing groundwater data. InflowOutflowREADME.txt has more information about inflow and outflow flies. The other two lakes are much shallower and modeled as a closed system (i.e. no water inflow or outflow).

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Modeled estimates of permafrost hydrology and related fields for pan-Arctic region over the period 1980-2100

This dataset contains gridded estimates of total runoff (mm/day); subsurface runoff (mm/day); snow water equivalent (SWE, mm/day); vertical upward water flux of combined surface evaporation, evapotranspiration, and snow sublimation (mm/day); and soil temperature (C) across the pan-Arctic basin from simulations of the Permafrost Water Balance Model (PWBM v4). These data were generated to allow researchers to advance understanding of the changes unfolding in the Arctic's terrestrial water cycle under the influences of climate warming, hydrological cycle intensification, and permafrost thaw. The dataset will enable researchers to address important questions spanning multiple disciplines. For example, how will rising river flows exported to the coast impact critical zone ecosystems, near-shore ice dynamics, and ocean biogeochemical processes. Spatial resolution is 25x25 km with N=39926 grid cells spanning the domain. Three forcing datasets were used to drive simulations at an implicit daily time step over the period 1980-2100. Daily air temperature, precipitation, and wind speed data from the WATCH Forcing Data methodology applied to ERA5 reanalysis (W5E5) were used for meteorological forcings over the period 1980-2019. Simulations for the period 1980-2100 used meteorological data from two global climate models; IPSL-CM6A-LR and MPI-ESM1-2-HR. The PWBM hydrological outputs are organized by grid and month in gzipped ASCII text files within each archived tar file. Soil temperature is organized by grid cell and day of year from DOY 205 to DOY 260. No special software is required to work with these data. The package contains spatial domain and river basin information files. These data are most useful for analyses of the spatial and temporal variations in terrestrial hydrology and soil thermal dynamics. A manuscript describing the model simulations and associated analysis has been accepted for publication in The Cryosphere (Rawlins and Karmalkar, 2024).

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

AmeriFlux FLUXNET-1F US-NGC NGEE Arctic Council

This is the AmeriFlux Management Project (AMP) created FLUXNET-1F version of the carbon flux data for the site US-NGC NGEE Arctic Council. This is the FLUXNET version of the carbon flux data for the site US-NGC NGEE Arctic Council produced by applying the standard ONEFlux (1F) software. Site Description - Subarctic tussock tundra, discontinuous permafrost

Torn, Margaret↗
DOE OSTI2023

Dissipation of Mixed-Phase Arctic Clouds and Its Relationship to Aerosol Properties - Final Technical Report

The overarching objective of this project was to further our understanding of low-level Arctic cloud behavior in ultra-low aerosol concentration environments. To this end, we used a combination of modeling and analysis of DOE ARM datasets to understand the frequency of aerosol-limited cloud dissipation events, to understand the microphysical processes that lead to aerosol-limited dissipation, and to understand how above-cloud aerosol particles can work to maintain low-level clouds that exist in boundary layers with ultra-low aerosol concentrations. We found that aerosol-limited dissipation is unlikely to occur at the DOE long-term observation facilities at North Slope Alaska and Oliktok Point but possibly does occur at higher latitudes in the Arctic. At these higher latitudes, aerosol concentrations are frequently observed to be higher, often substantially higher, than in the boundary layer. These reservoirs can be sufficient to maintain low-level clouds. When they are insufficient, clouds appear to dissipate due to a depletion of liquid water through precipitation that is reinforced by a shutdown of the dynamical processes that support these clouds.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Arctic Critical Infrastructure: Assessing and Predicting the Risk to Critical Permafrost Infrastructure from Climate Change: A New Thermomechanical Approach

This study presents the development of a computational framework designed to predict the interaction between permafrost and infrastructure, addressing potential failure modes and mitigation strategies in the context of climate change. The framework, rooted in advanced modeling and simulation (mod/sim) techniques, integrates thermomechanical coupling to account for the complex interplay between heat flow, ice content, and mechanical behavior in permafrost. Existing models fail to fully capture these dynamics, particularly as they relate to the effects of ice saturation on structural integrity. Our innovative Arctic Coastal Erosion (ACE) framework fills this gap by coupling thermal and mechanical models to accurately simulate subsidence and deformation in permafrost environments. We applied the ACE framework to a representative runway, demonstrating its capability to predict settlement due to rising temperatures and subsequent permafrost thaw. This proof-of-concept showcases the potential of the framework to evaluate risks to Arctic infrastructure, which supports over four million people and 70% of existing permafrost-based structures. By simulating various infrastructure types and environmental conditions, our research offers insights into failure mechanisms and evaluates structural solutions to mitigate risk. The anticipated deliverables, including a prototype runway exemplar, position this project as a critical advancement in permafrost infrastructure modeling, with applications in national security and resilience planning.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2026

Photovoltaics and Energy Security in the Greater Arctic Region

The greater Arctic region (>60°N latitude) has been largely overlooked as a promising location for photovoltaic (PV) installations, with lower latitude and warmer regions receiving more attention. While few large PV installations currently exist in the Arctic, a closer examination of the region's geography, climate, PV technology characteristics, and energy needs reveals that PV systems can significantly contribute to energy security in high-latitude areas. This report examines both the opportunities and significant challenges for such a vision.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗