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At least 703 records · Page 39

Robust neural network-enhanced estimation of local primordial non-Gaussianity

When applied to the nonlinear matter distribution of the universe, neural networks have been shown to be very statistically sensitive probes of cosmological parameters, such as the linear perturbation amplitude σ 8 . However, when used as a “black box,” neural networks are not robust to baryonic uncertainty. We propose a robust architecture for constraining primordial non-Gaussianity f NL , by training a neural network to locally estimate σ 8 , and correlating these local estimates with the large-scale density field. We apply our method to N-body simulations, and show that σ⁡(f NL ) is 3.5 times better than the constraint obtained from a standard halo-based approach. Finally, we show that our method has the same robustness property as large-scale halo bias: baryonic physics can change the normalization of the estimated f NL , but cannot change whether f NL is detected.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Data-driven optimized control of the COVID-19 epidemics

Optimizing the impact on the economy of control strategies aiming at containing the spread of COVID-19 is a critical challenge. We use daily new case counts of COVID-19 patients reported by local health administrations from different Metropolitan Statistical Areas (MSAs) within the US to parametrize a model that well describes the propagation of the disease in each area. We then introduce a time-varying control input that represents the level of social distancing imposed on the population of a given area and solve an optimal control problem with the goal of minimizing the impact of social distancing on the economy in the presence of relevant constraints, such as a desired level of suppression for the epidemics at a terminal time. We find that with the exception of the initial time and of the final time, the optimal control input is well approximated by a constant, specific to each area, which contrasts with the implemented system of reopening ‘in phases’. For all the areas considered, this optimal level corresponds to stricter social distancing than the level estimated from data. Proper selection of the time period for application of the control action optimally is important: depending on the particular MSA this period should be either short or long or intermediate. We also consider the case that the transmissibility increases in time (due e.g. to increasingly colder weather), for which we find that the optimal control solution yields progressively stricter measures of social distancing. We finally compute the optimal control solution for a model modified to incorporate the effects of vaccinations on the population and we see that depending on a number of factors, social distancing measures could be optimally reduced during the period over which vaccines are administered to the population.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

The Extended Parabolic Equation Method and Implication of Results for Atmospheric Millimeter-Wave and Optical Propagation

The extended wide-angle parabolic wave equation applied to electromagnetic wave propagation in random media is considered. A general operator equation is derived which gives the statistical moments of an electric field of a propagating wave. This expression is used to obtain the first and second order moments of the wave field and solutions are found that transcend those which incorporate the full paraxial approximation at the outset. Although these equations can be applied to any propagation scenario that satisfies the conditions of application of the extended parabolic wave equation, the example of propagation through atmospheric turbulence is used. It is shown that in the case of atmospheric wave propagation and under the Markov approximation (i.e., the -correlation of the fluctuations in the direction of propagation), the usual parabolic equation in the paraxial approximation is accurate even at millimeter wavelengths. The methodology developed here can be applied to any qualifying situation involving random propagation through turbid or plasma environments that can be represented by a spectral density of permittivity fluctuations.

Manning, Robert M.↗

An Operator Method for Field Moments from the Extended Parabolic Wave Equation and Analytical Solutions of the First and Second Moments for Atmospheric Electromagnetic Wave Propagation

The extended wide-angle parabolic wave equation applied to electromagnetic wave propagation in random media is considered. A general operator equation is derived which gives the statistical moments of an electric field of a propagating wave. This expression is used to obtain the first and second order moments of the wave field and solutions are found that transcend those which incorporate the full paraxial approximation at the outset. Although these equations can be applied to any propagation scenario that satisfies the conditions of application of the extended parabolic wave equation, the example of propagation through atmospheric turbulence is used. It is shown that in the case of atmospheric wave propagation and under the Markov approximation (i.e., the delta-correlation of the fluctuations in the direction of propagation), the usual parabolic equation in the paraxial approximation is accurate even at millimeter wavelengths. The comprehensive operator solution also allows one to obtain expressions for the longitudinal (generalized) second order moment. This is also considered and the solution for the atmospheric case is obtained and discussed. The methodology developed here can be applied to any qualifying situation involving random propagation through turbid or plasma environments that can be represented by a spectral density of permittivity fluctuations.

Manning, Robert M.↗

Radiative interactions in multi-dimensional chemically reacting flows using Monte Carlo simulations

The Monte Carlo method (MCM) is applied to analyze radiative heat transfer in nongray gases. The nongray model employed is based on the statistical narrow band model with an exponential-tailed inverse intensity distribution. The amount and transfer of the emitted radiative energy in a finite volume element within a medium are considered in an exact manner. The spectral correlation between transmittances of two different segments of the same path in a medium makes the statistical relationship different from the conventional relationship, which only provides the non-correlated results for nongray methods is discussed. Validation of the Monte Carlo formulations is conducted by comparing results of this method of other solutions. In order to further establish the validity of the MCM, a relatively simple problem of radiative interactions in laminar parallel plate flows is considered. One-dimensional correlated Monte Carlo formulations are applied to investigate radiative heat transfer. The nongray Monte Carlo solutions are also obtained for the same problem and they also essentially match the available analytical solutions. the exact correlated and non-correlated Monte Carlo formulations are very complicated for multi-dimensional systems. However, by introducing the assumption of an infinitesimal volume element, the approximate correlated and non-correlated formulations are obtained which are much simpler than the exact formulations. Consideration of different problems and comparison of different solutions reveal that the approximate and exact correlated solutions agree very well, and so do the approximate and exact non-correlated solutions. However, the two non-correlated solutions have no physical meaning because they significantly differ from the correlated solutions. An accurate prediction of radiative heat transfer in any nongray and multi-dimensional system is possible by using the approximate correlated formulations. Radiative interactions are investigated in chemically reacting compressible flows of premixed hydrogen and air in an expanding nozzle. The governing equations are based on the fully elliptic Navier-Stokes equations. Chemical reaction mechanisms were described by a finite rate chemistry model. The correlated Monte Carlo method developed earlier was employed to simulate multi-dimensional radiative heat transfer. Results obtained demonstrate that radiative effects on the flowfield are minimal but radiative effects on the wall heat transfer are significant. Extensive parametric studies are conducted to investigate the effects of equivalence ratio, wall temperature, inlet flow temperature, and nozzle size on the radiative and conductive wall fluxes.

Liu, Jiwen↗

Statistically Consistent Dispersions of Line Loads to Uncertain Integrated Forces and Moments

This work presents a method to generate line loads that are consistent with integrated force and moment constraints, while also following the statistical distribution underlying known line load data. The motivation for this method is to address a particular problem that can arise during the pre-flight analysis of an ascent vehicle. That problem is constructing separate databases, for line loads and integrated aerodynamic coefficients, that contain different data and thus different amounts of quantified uncertainty. A dispersed line load method is described and applied to a data set generated by 29 computational fluid dynamics simulations at various angles of attack and sideslip. The statistical similarity of the generated line loads to the known data is confirmed by using the Maximum Mean Discrepancy 2-sample test. The promising results from this novel method are compared against results from applying an existing line load adjustment procedure to the same data set. Finally, potential future avenues of research are briefly discussed.

Aaron C. Burkhead↗

Quantitative resilience evaluation on recovery from emergency situations in nuclear power plants

Here, this paper mainly introduces how to develop a resilience evaluation model by quantifying the relationship between resilience and resilience components in regard to recovering from emergency situations in nuclear power plants (NPPs). It is an extension of the author’s previous researches. To develop the model, the first step was to analyze event reports published in Republic of Korea in terms of resilience factors from different safety perspectives. Second, statistical methods such as factor analysis, principal component analysis, and multivariate regression analysis were applied to the dataset to identify relations among resilience factors and develop a quantitative resilience evaluation model for recovery from emergency situations in NPPs. Third, the model was validated using the recent event report data released in Korea. Lastly, we present a discussion on how to apply the quantitative resilience evaluation model to results from stress tests performed in Korea.

21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗

Discrete ordinates analysis of the forced-flight variance reduction technique in Monte Carlo neutral particle transport simulations

This paper presents mathematical formulations and methods to predict the effect of forced-flight variance reduction on Monte Carlo tally variance and calculation time. This includes deducing biasing operators that are then used to construct a history-score probability density function (HSPDF), which represents all possible Monte Carlo random walks and gives the probability of a Monte Carlo history scoring in a tally from a particular phase-space position. The history-score moment equations (HSMEs), the statistical moments of the HSPDF, are then derived to calculate the statistical behavior of the Monte Carlo tally when forced-flight variance reduction is applied. In addition, the future-time equation (FTE) is derived to predict the Monte Carlo computational time as a result of applying forced-flight variance reduction. The solutions of the HSMEs and FTE can be used to predict Monte Carlo computational cost. Furthermore, this work also describes a discrete ordinates method to solve the forced-flight HSMEs and FTE. Several 1-D and 2-D test problems verify that the derivations are performed and implemented correctly.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

On the analysis of signal peaks in pulse-height spectra

The estimation of the signal location and intensity of a peak in a pulse height spectrum is important for X- ray and γ-ray spectroscopy, charged-particle spectrometry, liquid chromatography, and many other subfields. However, both the ‘‘centroid’’ and ‘‘signal intensity’’ of a peak in a pulse-height spectrum are ill-defined quantities and different methods of analysis will yield different numerical results. Here, we apply three methods of analysis. Method A is based on simple count summation and is likely the technique most frequently applied in practice. The analysis is straightforward and fast, and does not involve any statistical modeling. We find that it provides reliable results only for high signal-to-noise data, but has severe limitations in all other cases. Method B employs a Bayesian model to extract signal counts and centroid from the measured total and background counts. The resulting values are derived from the respective posteriors and, therefore, have a rigorous statistical meaning. The method makes no assumptions about the peak shape. It yields reliable and relatively small centroid uncertainties. However, it provides relatively large signal count uncertainties. Method C makes a strong assumption regarding the peak shape by fitting a Gaussian function to the data. Furthermore, the fit is based again on a Bayesian model. Although Method C requires careful consideration of the Gaussian width (usually given by the detector resolution) used in the fitting, it provides reliable values and relatively small uncertainties both for the signal counts and the centroid.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗

Probing the consistency of cosmological contours for supernova cosmology

As the scale of cosmological surveys increases, so does the complexity in the analyses. This complexity can often make it difficult to derive the underlying principles, necessitating statistically rigorous testing to ensure the results of an analysis are consistent and reasonable. This is particularly important in multi-probe cosmological analyses like those used in the Dark Energy Survey (DES) and the upcoming Legacy Survey of Space and Time, where accurate uncertainties are vital. In this paper, we present a statistically rigorous method to test the consistency of contours produced in these analyses and apply this method to the Pippin cosmological pipeline used for type Ia supernova cosmology with the DES. We make use of the Neyman construction, a frequentist methodology that leverages extensive simulations to calculate confidence intervals, to perform this consistency check. A true Neyman construction is too computationally expensive for supernova cosmology, so we develop a method for approximating a Neyman construction with far fewer simulations. We find that for a simulated dataset, the 68% contour reported by the Pippin pipeline and the 68% confidence region produced by our approximate Neyman construction differ by less than a percent near the input cosmology; however, they show more significant differences far from the input cosmology, with a maximal difference of 0.05 in $Ω$ M and 0.07 in w. In conclusion, this divergence is most impactful for analyses of cosmological tensions, but its impact is mitigated when combining supernovae with other cross-cutting cosmological probes, such as the cosmic microwave background.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Amplifying Magnetic Field Effects on Upconversion Emission via Molecular Qubit-Driven Triplet–Triplet Annihilation

Triplet-triplet annihilation (TTA) enables photon upconversion by combining two lower-energy triplet excitons to produce a higher-energy singlet exciton. This mechanism enhances light-harvesting efficiency for solar energy conversion and enables the use of lower-energy photons in bioimaging and photoredox catalysis applications. The magnetic modulation of such high-energy excitons presents an exciting opportunity to develop molecular quantum information technologies. While the spin dynamics of triplet exciton pairs are sensitive to external magnetic fields, the magnetic field effects (MFEs) associated with these pairs are generally limited by spin statistics to at most 10% at low fields (<1 Tesla), making them challenging to apply in technological advancements. In contrast, MFEs on spin-correlated radical pairs (SCRPs) can be significantly greater, surpassing those on triplet pairs. By using SCRPs-based molecular qubits as triplet sensitizers in the sensitized TTA scheme, we can magnetically modulate TTA and consequently, the delayed fluorescence of annihilators. In our current system, we have achieved more than 70% magnetic modulation of delayed fluorescence, effectively harnessing and even amplifying magnetic modulation within SCRPs to influence high-energy excitons. In conclusion, this work opens new opportunities for advancing spin-controlled chemical reactions and molecular quantum information technologies.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Exact Gaussian processes for massive datasets via non-stationary sparsity-discovering kernels

Abstract A Gaussian Process (GP) is a prominent mathematical framework for stochastic function approximation in science and engineering applications. Its success is largely attributed to the GP’s analytical tractability, robustness, and natural inclusion of uncertainty quantification. Unfortunately, the use of exact GPs is prohibitively expensive for large datasets due to their unfavorable numerical complexity of $$O(N^3)$$ O ( N 3 ) in computation and $$O(N^2)$$ O ( N 2 ) in storage. All existing methods addressing this issue utilize some form of approximation—usually considering subsets of the full dataset or finding representative pseudo-points that render the covariance matrix well-structured and sparse. These approximate methods can lead to inaccuracies in function approximations and often limit the user’s flexibility in designing expressive kernels. Instead of inducing sparsity via data-point geometry and structure, we propose to take advantage of naturally-occurring sparsity by allowing the kernel to discover—instead of induce—sparse structure. The premise of this paper is that the data sets and physical processes modeled by GPs often exhibit natural or implicit sparsities, but commonly-used kernels do not allow us to exploit such sparsity. The core concept of exact, and at the same time sparse GPs relies on kernel definitions that provide enough flexibility to learn and encode not only non-zero but also zero covariances. This principle of ultra-flexible, compactly-supported, and non-stationary kernels, combined with HPC and constrained optimization, lets us scale exact GPs well beyond 5 million data points.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Dynamic Transcriptomic and Phosphoproteomic Analysis During Cell Wall Stress in Aspergillus nidulans

The fungal cell-wall integrity signaling (CWIS) pathway regulates cellular response to environmental stress to enable wall repair and resumption of normal growth. This complex, interconnected, pathway has been only partially characterized in filamentous fungi. To better understand the dynamic cellular response to wall perturbation, a β-glucan synthase inhibitor (micafungin) was added to a growing A. nidulans shake-flask culture. From this flask, transcriptomic and phosphoproteomic data were acquired over 10 and 120 min, respectively. To differentiate statistically-significant dynamic behavior from noise, a multivariate adaptive regression splines (MARS) model was applied to both data sets. Over 1800 genes were dynamically expressed and over 700 phosphorylation sites had changing phosphorylation levels upon micafungin exposure. Twelve kinases had altered phosphorylation and phenotypic profiling of all non-essential kinase deletion mutants revealed putative connections between PrkA, Hk-8–4, and Stk19 and the CWIS pathway. Our collective data implicate actin regulation, endocytosis, and septum formation as critical cellular processes responding to activation of the CWIS pathway, and connections between CWIS and calcium, HOG, and SIN signaling pathways.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Dark energy survey year 3 results: High-precision measurement and modeling of galaxy-galaxy lensing

We present and characterize the galaxy-galaxy lensing signal measured using the first three years of data from the Dark Energy Survey (DES Y3) covering 4132 deg 2 . These galaxy-galaxy measurements are used in the DES Y3 3 × 2 pt cosmological analysis, which combines weak lensing and galaxy clustering information. We use two lens samples: a magnitude-limited sample and the redmagic sample, which span the redshift range ∼ 0.2 – 1 with 10.7 and 2.6 M galaxies, respectively. For the source catalog, we use the metacalibration shape sample, consisting of ≃ 100 M galaxies separated into four tomographic bins. Our galaxy-galaxy lensing estimator is the mean tangential shear, for which we obtain a total SNR of ∼ 148 for maglim ( ∼ 120 for redmagic), and ∼ 67 ( ∼ 55 ) after applying the scale cuts of 6 Mpc / h . Thus we reach percent-level statistical precision, which requires that our modeling and systematic-error control be of comparable accuracy. The tangential shear model used in the 3 × 2 pt cosmological analysis includes lens magnification, a five-parameter intrinsic alignment model, marginalization over a point mass to remove information from small scales and a linear galaxy bias model validated with higher-order terms. We explore the impact of these choices on the tangential shear observable and study the significance of effects not included in our model, such as reduced shear, source magnification, and source clustering. We also test the robustness of our measurements to various observational and systematics effects, such as the impact of observing conditions, lens-source clustering, random-point subtraction, scale-dependent metacalibration responses, point spread function residuals, and B modes.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Economic Storage Size Optimization for Electric Vehicle Extreme-Fast Charging Stations

En-route charging infrastructure for electric vehicles is critical to support transportation needs. These charging stations are likely to have high loads and especially sharp peak loads given fast charging capabilities needed to meet transportation schedules. In order to reduce both strain on distribution grid infrastructure and charging station operational costs, many stations are likely to employ behind the meter storage. This paper demonstrates a behind the meter storage sizing optimization that employs an open-source agent-based vehicle behavior model (BEAM) to determine the best sizing across many scenarios. This optimization and analysis is novel in that it examines how storage size impacts not only charging station cost and peak load, but also vehicle queue times. The optimization is also applied across a wide analysis region with sufficient diversity and numbers to provide novel statistical analysis of optimal sizes.

Aka, Julius↗

Scaled Vecchia Approximation for Fast Computer-Model Emulation

Many scientific phenomena are studied using computer experiments consisting of multiple runs of a computer model while varying the input settings. Gaussian processes (GPs) are a popular tool for the analysis of computer experiments, enabling interpolation between input settings, but direct GP inference is computationally infeasible for large datasets. We adapt and extend a powerful class of GP methods from spatial statistics to enable the scalable analysis and emulation of large computer experiments. Specifically, we apply Vecchia’s ordered conditional approximation in a transformed input space, with each input scaled according to how strongly it relates to the computer-model response. The scaling is learned from the data by estimating parameters in the GP covariance function using Fisher scoring. Our methods are highly scalable, enabling estimation, joint prediction, and simulation in near-linear time in the number of model runs. In several numerical examples, our approach substantially outperformed existing methods.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Improving multiwell petrophysical interpretation from well logs via machine learning and statistical models

Well-log interpretation estimates in situ rock properties along well trajectory, such as porosity, water saturation, and permeability, to support reserve-volume estimation, production forecasts, and decision making in reservoir development. However, due to measurement errors, variability of well logs caused by multiple measurement vendors, different borehole tools, and nonuniform drilling/borehole conditions, estimations of rock properties with original well logs without proper preprocessing may not be accurate, especially in the context of multiwell estimation. Well-log normalization techniques such as two-point scaling and mean-variance normalization are commonly used to improve the robustness of multiwell rock-property estimation. However, these techniques do not consider the correlation between well logs and require subjective knowledge for their effective implementation. To reduce uncertainties and processing time associated with multiwell rock-property estimation from well logs, we develop discriminative adversarial (DA) and linear constraint models for well-log normalization and rock-property estimation. The DA neural network model developed for well-log normalization and interpretation can perform linear and nonlinear well-log normalization while considering the joint distribution of each well log and rock properties. However, the linear constraint model uses an ensemble of predictions from linear models to constrain well-log normalization and rock-property estimation. We also develop a divergence-based type well identification method to select type (training) wells for a test well based on the statistical similarity of associated well-log distributions instead of the interwell distance. We apply the DA model to perform well-log normalization and prediction of permeability for the Seminole San Andres Unit carbonate reservoir. Compared with the permeability predicted with the classical machine learning model without well-log normalization and models with two-point scaling normalization, the DA model yields the most accurate permeability prediction by decreasing the mean-squared error of permeability prediction by 20%–50%.

Geochemistry & Geophysics↗

Cybernetics and space biology

Cybernetics applied to space biology and medicine through use of mathematical models, biological controls, and statistical dynamics

BIOLOGICAL MODEL↗