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At least 703 records · Page 39

Hourly Electricity Demand Projections for Eight Combined Climate and Socioeconomic Scenarios

This dataset contains 40 years (1980-2019) of simulated historical hourly electricity demand (i.e., loads) and 80 years (2020-2099) of projected hourly loads for 54 Balancing Authorities (BAs) and 48 states plus the District of Columbia. Details about the scenarios and variables included in this dataset are in the readme.pdf file. The two primary models that created the dataset are a version of the Global Change Analysis Model with detailed sectoral resolution over the United States (GCAM-USA) and the Total ELectricity Loads (TELL) model. Links to the model source code and workflow for deriving the dataset are provided in an accompanying meta-repository: https://github.com/IMMM-SFA/burleyson-etal_2023_applied_energy. Projections are for four future climate scenarios that represent combinations of Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) 4.5 and 8.5 combined with two levels of climate model sensitivities: rcp45cooler, rcp45hotter, rcp85cooler, and rcp85hotter. The four climate scenarios are crossed with Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) 3 and 5 to yield eight different future load projections: rcp45cooler_ssp3, rcp45cooler_ssp5, rcp45hotter_ssp3, rcp45hotter_ssp5, rcp85cooler_ssp3, rcp85cooler_ssp5, rcp85hotter_ssp3, and rcp85hotter_ssp5. The climate scenarios are from the IM3 Thermodynamic Global Warming (TGW) dataset which is linked below in the related metadata. The related metadata also contains links to a repository containing the raw GCAM-USA output files.

Climate Change↗

Hourly Electricity Demand Projections for Eight Combined Climate and Socioeconomic Scenarios

This dataset contains 40 years (1980-2019) of simulated historical hourly electricity demand (i.e., loads) and 80 years (2020-2099) of projected hourly loads for 54 Balancing Authorities (BAs) and 48 states plus the District of Columbia. Details about the scenarios and variables included in this dataset are in the readme.pdf file. The two primary models that created the dataset are a version of the Global Change Analysis Model with detailed sectoral resolution over the United States (GCAM-USA) and the Total ELectricity Loads (TELL) model. Links to the model source code and workflow for deriving the dataset are provided in an accompanying meta-repository: https://github.com/IMMM-SFA/burleyson-etal_2024_applied_energy. Projections are for four future climate scenarios that represent combinations of Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) 4.5 and 8.5 combined with two levels of climate model sensitivities: rcp45cooler, rcp45hotter, rcp85cooler, and rcp85hotter. The four climate scenarios are crossed with Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) 3 and 5 to yield eight different future load projections: rcp45cooler_ssp3, rcp45cooler_ssp5, rcp45hotter_ssp3, rcp45hotter_ssp5, rcp85cooler_ssp3, rcp85cooler_ssp5, rcp85hotter_ssp3, and rcp85hotter_ssp5. The climate scenarios are from the IM3 Thermodynamic Global Warming (TGW) dataset which is linked below in the related metadata. The related metadata also contains links to a repository containing the raw GCAM-USA output files.

Climate Change↗

Workflow for Process Automation of Soil Gas Results from an Automated Soil Gas-Sampling System for Application in Carbon Storage Projects

Extended abstract for Geoconvention, Calgary, Alberta, Canada, May 12–14, 2025. The Energy & Environmental Research Center (EERC) developed an automated workflow for processing soil gas measurements collected from the automated soil gas-sampling systems deployed across the project site. Raw soil gas measurements are collected from each station every 4 hours and automatically uploaded to a cloud database. The workflow begins by writing code to download the data to a workstation automatically, then the data are published to an online dashboard that visualizes the measurements in time-series plots and a process-based decision-making framework. This automated workflow accelerates the time from data acquisition to decision-making. It supports carbon storage project operators by preparing and delivering a live, standardized dataset for quick analysis and source attribution to provide assurance of containment and overall permit compliance.

02 PETROLEUM↗

Design workflow of a symmetric traveling wave antenna for fast ion production on DD tokamaks

Initial computational plasma physics scoping and a finite element method antenna modeling design workflow for a symmetric center-fed high-field side high harmonic fast wave traveling wave array (TWA) antenna are reported here. The TWA is designed to generate a test population of fast deuterium ions in an existing D–D tokamak by heating neutral beam deuterium ions, accelerating them from 80 keV to several hundred keV. The resulting fast particles are tailored to mimic key reactor energetic particle parameters with regards to exciting Alfven eigenmode instabilities, allowing for a D–D tokamak like DIII-D or ASDEX-U to replicate reactor-relevant conditions experimentally. Initial scenario scoping for high single-pass absorption as well as good preferential fast ion damping relative to electron damping was completed using the ray-tracing/Fokker–Planck codes GENRAY and CQL3D. Python RF network analysis packages were used to create a custom TWA optimization tool to inform a COMSOL flat antenna design, and Petra-M was used to study cold plasma effects. The TWA produced by this workflow has several novel features when compared to previous TWA studies, including symmetric center feeding, and passive end straps for image current cancellation for reduced impurity production. We show here that the antenna design workflow can readily produce TWA antennas optimized for reflection coefficient, image current cancellation, and launched power spectrum shape; and that a population of fast ions can be generated in the correct region of parameter space, warranting future more detailed studies.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

Sensitivity Analysis in the Presence of Intrinsic Stochasticity for Discrete Fracture Network Simulations

Abstract Large‐scale discrete fracture network (DFN) simulators are standard fare for studies involving the sub‐surface transport of particles since direct observation of real world underground fracture networks is generally infeasible. While these simulators have successfully been used in several engineering applications, estimates of output quantities of interest (QoI) — such as breakthrough time of particles reaching the edge of the system — suffer from two distinct types of uncertainty. A run of a DFN simulator requires several parameters to be set that dictate the placement and size of fractures, the density of fractures, and the overall permeability of the system; uncertainty on the proper parameters will lead to uncertainty in the QoI, called epistemic uncertainty. Furthermore, since these input settings to DFN simulators control the stochastic processes which place fractures and govern flow, understanding how this randomness affects the QoI requires several runs of the simulator at distinct random seeds. The uncertainty in the QoI attributed to different realizations (i.e., different seeds) of the same random process (i.e., identical input parameters) leads to a second type of uncertainty, called aleatoric uncertainty. In this paper, we perform a Sensitivity Analysis, which directly attributes the uncertainty observed in the QoI to the epistemic uncertainty from each input parameter and to the aleatoric uncertainty. Beyond the specific takeaways on which input variables influence uncertainty in the QoI the most, a major contribution of this paper is the introduction of a statistically rigorous workflow for characterizing the uncertainty in DFN flow simulations that exhibit heteroskedasticity.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Collaborative Exploration of Scientific Datasets Using Immersive and Statistical Visualization: Preprint

We discuss the value of collaborative, immersive visualization for the exploration of scientific datasets and review techniques and tools that have been developed and deployed at the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL). We believe that collaborative visualizations linking statistical interfaces and graphics on laptops and high-performance computing (HPC) with 3D visualizations on immersive displays (head-mounted displays and large-scale immersive environments) enable scientific workflows that further rapid exploration of large, high-dimensional datasets by teams of analysts. We present a framework, PlottyVR, that blends statistical tools, general-purpose programming environments, and simulation with 3D visualizations. To contextualize this framework, we propose a categorization and loose taxonomy of collaborative visualization and analysis techniques. Finally, we describe how scientists and engineers have adopted this framework to investigate large, complex datasets.

collaborative visualization↗

Nanotomography for Quantitative 3D Particle Reconstruction

Particulates are ubiquitous across fuel cycle operations and carry critical information about particle formation, processing, and potential proliferation-related activities. Traditional analytical techniques, including micro-Raman spectroscopy and standard electron microscopy, are often limited in spatial resolution or dimensionality, particularly when used to examine metallic or submicron-scale features. Understanding particle morphology, phase distribution, and internal porosity is essential for constraining formation conditions, thermodynamic environments, and material transport behavior. In this report, we demonstrate the application of plasma focused ion beam nanotomography to reconstruct micron-scale particulates at nanoscale resolution. Using high-resolution backscattered electron imaging and Avizo software, we obtained 3D reconstructions that enabled quantitative analysis of particle morphology, phase composition, and internal voids. Representative examples include a Ta particle with a large central void and a composite particle with embedded tetrahedral crystalline structures. These reconstructions reveal structural and compositional details that are inaccessible through conventional 2D imaging. The results demonstrate that nanotomography provides both qualitative and quantitative insights into particle formation and behavior. Using nanotomography, porosity and phase distributions can be quantified to inform models of particle density, transport, and solidification conditions. Beyond technical insights, the workflow developed here establishes a transferable capability for analyzing heterogeneous particles and has potential applications in bulk materials studies via x-ray computed tomography or other volumetric imaging modalities. Ongoing efforts are focused on optimizing the workflow to process multiple particles simultaneously, increasing throughput and statistical robustness. Overall, this work illustrates the power of nanotomography as a tool for connecting particulate morphology to formation mechanisms, composition, and transport, thereby strengthening analytical capabilities for nuclear forensics, fuel cycle analysis, and related scientific investigations.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

Characterizing Signatures of Geothermal Exploration Data with Machine Learning Techniques: An Application to the Nevada Play Fairway Analysis

We are introducing machine learning methods to the play fairway analysis to generate geothermal potential maps to support the evaluation of geothermal resource potential and the exploration for undiscovered blind geothermal systems in the Nevada Great Basin region. Our project aims to identify new ways to combine the play fairway data and empirically organize relationships between feature weights and labels in an improved workflow. As a means of doing this, we introduce machine learning methods to evaluate the influence of certain geological and geophysical features/feature sets in predicting geothermal favorability. This report highlights promising approaches based on supervised and unsupervised learning methods. First, we demonstrate a filter method applied to supervised classification modeling. The supervised filter method is based on permutation analysis to evaluate every possible feature combination/drop out scenario and rank feature influence based on the performance variance of supervised classification models. Additionally, we present an unsupervised factor analysis based on principal component analysis coupled with a semi-supervised kmeans clustering algorithm. This analysis allows us to identify the optimal number of groups/clusters for training sites and structural settings to identify feature patterns including correlation, variance, and latent and dominant feature relationships. The results from these methods offer a promising avenue for identifying favorable sources of predictive information to identify the locations of blind geothermal systems and furthering our understanding of complex geothermal feature and label relationships in the Great Basin region and beyond.

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗

Collaborative Exploration of Scientific Datasets Using Immersive and Statistical Visualization

We discuss the value of collaborative, immersive visualization for the exploration of scientific datasets and review techniques and tools that have been developed and deployed at the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL). We believe that collaborative visualizations linking statistical interfaces and graphics on laptops and high-performance computing (HPC) with 3D visualizations on immersive displays (head-mounted displays and large-scale immersive environments) enable scientific workflows that further rapid exploration of large, high-dimensional datasets by teams of analysts. We present a framework, PlottyVR, that blends statistical tools, general-purpose programming environments, and simulation with 3D visualizations. To contextualize this framework, we propose a categorization and loose taxonomy of collaborative visualization and analysis techniques. Finally, we describe how scientists and engineers have adopted this framework to investigate large, complex datasets.

collaborative visualization↗

Physics-coupled data-driven design of high-temperature alloys

We present a materials design loop, which streamlines physics-coupled machine learning (ML) surrogate models to discover new alloy chemistries with improved properties. The efficacy is demonstrated by discovering a high-temperature alumina-forming austenitic (AFA) stainless steel with enhanced creep, followed by experimental validation. The ML models have been trained using a well-curated, highly consistent experimental dataset augmented with synthetic microstructural features from a computational thermodynamic approach. We have populated a large number of hypothetical AFA alloys to explore the high-dimensional composition space and have predicted their creep properties by providing the same synthetic input features obtained from the trained ML models. Uncertainties from the ML training were taken as thresholds for truncating predicted results to identify alloys with improved or deteriorated creep. Individual elemental compositions have been determined via probability density distribution analysis from the group of alloys at the top and bottom of the predicted creep values for further virtual and experimental validations. In conclusion, we anticipate that this workflow can be applied to screen desired conditions, such as chemistry and processing parameters, in high-dimensional space through physics-guided data analytics.

Alloy design↗

Adsorbate chemical environment-based machine learning framework for heterogeneous catalysis

Abstract Heterogeneous catalytic reactions are influenced by a subtle interplay of atomic-scale factors, ranging from the catalysts’ local morphology to the presence of high adsorbate coverages. Describing such phenomena via computational models requires generation and analysis of a large space of atomic configurations. To address this challenge, we present Adsorbate Chemical Environment-based Graph Convolution Neural Network (ACE-GCN), a screening workflow that accounts for atomistic configurations comprising diverse adsorbates, binding locations, coordination environments, and substrate morphologies. Using this workflow, we develop catalyst surface models for two illustrative systems: (i) NO adsorbed on a Pt 3 Sn(111) alloy surface, of interest for nitrate electroreduction processes, where high adsorbate coverages combined with low symmetry of the alloy substrate produce a large configurational space, and (ii) OH* adsorbed on a stepped Pt(221) facet, of relevance to the Oxygen Reduction Reaction, where configurational complexity results from the presence of irregular crystal surfaces, high adsorbate coverages, and directionally-dependent adsorbate-adsorbate interactions. In both cases, the ACE-GCN model, trained on a fraction (~10%) of the total DFT-relaxed configurations, successfully describes trends in the relative stabilities of unrelaxed atomic configurations sampled from a large configurational space. This approach is expected to accelerate development of rigorous descriptions of catalyst surfaces under in-situ conditions.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Auto-deconvolution and molecular networking of gas chromatography–mass spectrometry data

We engineered a machine learning approach, MSHub, to enable auto-deconvolution of gas chromatography–mass spectrometry (GC–MS) data. We then designed workflows to enable the community to store, process, share, annotate, compare and perform molecular networking of GC–MS data within the Global Natural Product Social (GNPS) Molecular Networking analysis platform. MSHub/GNPS performs auto-deconvolution of compound fragmentation patterns via unsupervised non-negative matrix factorization and quantifies the reproducibility of fragmentation patterns across samples.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗

Microreactor Optimization Using Simulation And Economics (mouse)

Microreactor Optimization Using Simulation and Economics (MOUSE) is a tool that integrates both nuclear microreactor design and reactor economics to provide comprehensive evaluations and optimizations. This tool enables stakeholders to explore the interplay between technical and economic variables, guiding them towards effective and competitive microreactor solutions. For the reactor core simulations, MOUSE leverages the OpenMC Monte Carlo Particle Transport Code to perform detailed core simulations for various microreactor designs. The included OpenMC models are 2D core designs of a Liquid Metal Thermal Microreactor (LMTR), a Gas-Cooled TRISO-Fueled Microreactor (GCMR), and a Heat Pipe Microreactor. Beyond core design, MOUSE includes simplified calculations for: - Calculating the masses of heat exchangers within the system. - Mechanical power of pumps. - Estimating the area occupied by various buildings within the nuclear plant. For the economic analysis, MOUSE provides detailed bottom-up cost estimates, encompassing a wide range of costs including preconstruction costs, direct costs, indirect costs, training costs, financial costs, operation & maintenance (O&M) costs, and fuel costs. These cost estimations are developed using data from the MARVEL project and additional literature sources, enabling the calculation of total capital costs and levelized cost of energy for both first-of-a-kind and nth-of-a-kind microreactors. MOUSE also enables analysis of the cost drivers and competitiveness in the electricity market. MOUSE allows users to modify a wide array of technical and economic parameters to evaluate different scenarios and their impacts. Examples of these parameters include: Fuels, coolants, or reflector materials Enrichment levels Control drum materials and geometry Fuel pin geometry and materials Moderator pin geometry and materials Reactor core and reflector dimensions Packing factor for the TRISO particles Nuclear reactor power and reactor burnup Number of sensors Shielding thickness Reactor vessel and guard vessel dimensions Operational staff requirements Number of emergency shutdowns Levelization period Interest rate Construction duration Since MOUSE is powered by the WATTS toolkit, it supports optimization studies, parametric analyses, and uncertainty calculations/propagation. The optimization techniques enable users to identify optimal design and economic configurations. The parametric analysis tools allow users to explore the sensitivity of various parameters, while uncertainty propagation helps quantify the impact of uncertainties on overall performance and cost. User Interface and Workflow: Currently, MOUSE is a command-line-based tool. Users can input various reactor design or economic parameters, modify the designs, run simulations, and visualize results through comprehensive data visualization and reporting capabilities. The typical workflow involves setting up the reactor model, defining economic parameters, running simulations, and analyzing the results to make informed decisions. By combining advanced design calculations with detailed economic modeling, MOUSE provides a robust framework for optimizing nuclear microreactor technologies, enhancing their competitiveness, and guiding stakeholders towards innovative and cost-effective solutions.

Hanna, Botros [Idaho National Laboratory (INL), Id↗

Development of the IES Plug-and-Play Framework

This report discusses the status of the flexible plug-and-play framework development currently ongoing that aims to integrate Modelica/Dymola with the Risk Analysis and Virtual ENvironment (RAVEN) software in terms of both Functional Mock-Up Interface (FMI)/Functional Mock-Up Unit (FMU) construction and repository structures that aim to ease the sharing and simulation of complex dynamic models. This report aims to provide an overview of all the performed activities resolving around the deployment of methods, software infrastructures, guidelines and workflow for the construction and usage of models, encapsulated using the FMI/FMU protocols and standards. In particular, the report is organized in three main macro-subjects, which are connected to each other: - FMI/FMU adaptors for modelica models - HYBRID repository new structure and open-source deployment - RAVEN FMI/FMU exporting capabilities and Artificial Intelligence (AI)-based analysis acceleration. The first part of the report discusses the FMI/FMU adaptors that have been created within the HYBRID repository to allow users to quickly export models, such as FMUs. Several examples are shown that highlight the step-by-step process of converting an existing Modelica model into an FMU for use within the Dymola platform. Simulation results demonstrate that, while minor differences may occur, the overall control, trends, and solution integrity are maintained between standard Modelica simulation and FMU simulation results. However, it is worth noting that, for small systems, the FMU results have a slower simulation time than the Modelica only simulation. Using this process, a company can provide models that contain proprietary information to entities without disclosing any of the information about the model that could be considered business sensitive. Such an ability would allow institutions to bypass the necessity of “whitewashing” data. In the second part of the report, the new structure of the HYBRID repository is discussed with a major focus on the series of updates that has been completed. These updates include the addition of Modelica system-level regression tests and software quality assurance documentation that ensure that modifications to the Modelica models do not alter system-level model results. The third and final part of the report aims to report the work that has been performed for the deployment of methods and workflows for the construction of RAVEN AI-based models compliant with the FMI/FMU standard. Such development represents the key for the deployment of the concept of “Flexible ecosystem” since it allows for the replacement of high-fidelity modelica models (or any other FMI/FMU compliant model) with RAVEN generated AI surrogate models. Overall, extensive work has been completed on developing FMUs and FMIs from existing models, understanding the requirements and limitations of FMUs, and open-sourcing the HYBRID repository with an integrated regression system.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Development of the IES Plug-and-Play Framework

This report discusses the status of the flexible plug-and-play framework development currently ongoing that aims to integrate Modelica/Dymola with the Risk Analysis and Virtual ENvironment (RAVEN) software in terms of both Functional Mock-Up Interface (FMI)/Functional Mock-Up Unit (FMU) construction and repository structures that aim to ease the sharing and simulation of complex dynamic models. This report aims to provide an overview of all the performed activities resolving around the deployment of methods, software infrastructures, guidelines and workflow for the construction and usage of models, encapsulated using the FMI/FMU protocols and standards. In particular, the report is organized in three main macro-subjects, which are connected to each other: - FMI/FMU adaptors for modelica models - HYBRID repository new structure and open-source deployment - RAVEN FMI/FMU exporting capabilities and Artificial Intelligence (AI)-based analysis acceleration. The first part of the report discusses the FMI/FMU adaptors that have been created within the HYBRID repository to allow users to quickly export models, such as FMUs. Several examples are shown that highlight the step-by-step process of converting an existing Modelica model into an FMU for use within the Dymola platform. Simulation results demonstrate that, while minor differences may occur, the overall control, trends, and solution integrity are maintained between standard Modelica simulation and FMU simulation results. However, it is worth noting that, for small systems, the FMU results have a slower simulation time than the Modelica only simulation. Using this process, a company can provide models that contain proprietary information to entities without disclosing any of the information about the model that could be considered business sensitive. Such an ability would allow institutions to bypass the necessity of “whitewashing” data. In the second part of the report, the new structure of the HYBRID repository is discussed with a major focus on the series of updates that has been completed. These updates include the addition of Modelica system-level regression tests and software quality assurance documentation that ensure that modifications to the Modelica models do not alter system-level model results. The third and final part of the report aims to report the work that has been performed for the deployment of methods and workflows for the construction of RAVEN AI-based models compliant with the FMI/FMU standard. Such development represents the key for the deployment of the concept of “Flexible ecosystem” since it allows for the replacement of high-fidelity modelica models (or any other FMI/FMU compliant model) with RAVEN generated AI surrogate models. Overall, extensive work has been completed on developing FMUs and FMIs from existing models, understanding the requirements and limitations of FMUs, and open-sourcing the HYBRID repository with an integrated regression system.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Machine learning for natural resource assessment: An application to the blind geothermal systems of Nevada

A study is underway to apply machine learning methods to evaluate natural resource potential. In particular, we are considering the search for blind geothermal systems in Nevada. Beginning with the data and experience from the previous Nevada play fairway analysis project, we are building models in TensorFlow/Keras and gaining experience toward predicting the geothermal resource potential as a probability map. During the first year of this project we have encountered several issues particular to using geological and geophysical data sets with these tools. Through an illustrative example we develop a promising workflow for future use as more data become available and are analyzed.

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗

Recommendations for Uniform Variant Calling of SARS-CoV-2 Genome Sequence across Bioinformatic Workflows

Genomic sequencing of clinical samples to identify emerging variants of SARS-CoV-2 has been a key public health tool for curbing the spread of the virus. As a result, an unprecedented number of SARS-CoV-2 genomes were sequenced during the COVID-19 pandemic, which allowed for rapid identification of genetic variants, enabling the timely design and testing of therapies and deployment of new vaccine formulations to combat the new variants. However, despite the technological advances of deep sequencing, the analysis of the raw sequence data generated globally is neither standardized nor consistent, leading to vastly disparate sequences that may impact identification of variants. Here, we show that for both Illumina and Oxford Nanopore sequencing platforms, downstream bioinformatic protocols used by industry, government, and academic groups resulted in different virus sequences from same sample. These bioinformatic workflows produced consensus genomes with differences in single nucleotide polymorphisms, inclusion and exclusion of insertions, and/or deletions, despite using the same raw sequence as input datasets. Here, we compared and characterized such discrepancies and propose a specific suite of parameters and protocols that should be adopted across the field. Consistent results from bioinformatic workflows are fundamental to SARS-CoV-2 and future pathogen surveillance efforts, including pandemic preparation, to allow for a data-driven and timely public health response.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

SSC Engineering Analysis

A package for the automation of the Engineering Analysis (EA) process at the Stennis Space Center has been customized. It provides the ability to assign and track analysis tasks electronically, and electronically route a task for approval. It now provides a mechanism to keep these analyses under configuration management. It also allows the analysis to be stored and linked to the engineering data that is needed to perform the analysis (drawings, etc.). PTC s (Parametric Technology Corp o ration) Windchill product was customized to allow the EA to be created, routed, and maintained under configuration management. Using Infoengine Tasks, JSP (JavaServer Pages), Javascript, a user interface was created within the Windchill product that allows users to create EAs. Not only does this interface allow users to create and track EAs, but it plugs directly into the out-ofthe- box ability to associate these analyses with other relevant engineering data such as drawings. Also, using the Windchill workflow tool, the Design and Data Management System (DDMS) team created an electronic routing process based on the manual/informal approval process. The team also added the ability for users to notify and track notifications to individuals about the EA. Prior to the Engineering Analysis creation, there was no electronic way of creating and tracking these analyses. There was also a feature that was added that would allow users to track/log e-mail notifications of the EA.

Ryan, Harry↗