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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 703 records · Page 39
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS2016

Application of Interval Predictor Models to Space Radiation Shielding

This paper develops techniques for predicting the uncertainty range of an output variable given input-output data. These models are called Interval Predictor Models (IPM) because they yield an interval valued function of the input. This paper develops IPMs having a radial basis structure. This structure enables the formal description of (i) the uncertainty in the models parameters, (ii) the predicted output interval, and (iii) the probability that a future observation would fall in such an interval. In contrast to other metamodeling techniques, this probabilistic certi cate of correctness does not require making any assumptions on the structure of the mechanism from which data are drawn. Optimization-based strategies for calculating IPMs having minimal spread while containing all the data are developed. Constraints for bounding the minimum interval spread over the continuum of inputs, regulating the IPMs variation/oscillation, and centering its spread about a target point, are used to prevent data over tting. Furthermore, we develop an approach for using expert opinion during extrapolation. This metamodeling technique is illustrated using a radiation shielding application for space exploration. In this application, we use IPMs to describe the error incurred in predicting the ux of particles resulting from the interaction between a high-energy incident beam and a target.

Crespo, Luis G.↗
NASA NTRS2022

A NASA-Air Force Precipitation Analysis for Near-Real-Time Operations

This article describes a new precipitation analysis algorithm developed by NASA for time-sensitive operations at the United States Air Force. Implemented as part of the Land Information System—a land modeling and data assimilation software framework—this NASA–Air Force Precipitation Analysis (NAFPA) combines numerical weather prediction model outputs with rain gauge measurements and satellite estimates to produce global, gridded 3-h accumulated precipitation fields at approximately 10-km resolution. Input observations are subjected to quality control checks before being used by the Bratseth analysis algorithm that converges to optimal interpolation. NAFPA assimilates up to 3.5 million observations without artificial data thinning or selection. To evaluate this new approach, a multiyear reanalysis is generated and intercompared with eight alternative precipitation products across the contiguous United States, Africa, and the monsoon region of eastern Asia. NAFPA yields superior accuracy and correlation over low-latency (up to 14 h) alternatives (numerical weather prediction and satellite retrievals), and often outperforms high-latency (up to 3.5 months) products, although the details for the latter vary by region and product. The development of NAFPA offers a high-quality, near-real-time product for use in meteorological, land surface, and hydrological research and applications.

Africa↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Interval Predictor Models for Robust System Identification

This paper proposes a framework for the identification and uncertainty quantification of plant models according to multivariable data. The only restriction imposed upon such models is for their outputs to depend continuously on their parameters. An Interval Predictor Model (IPM) prescribes the parameters of a computational model as a path-connected set thereby making each predicted output an interval-valued function of its inputs. The formulation proposed seeks the parameter set for which the predicted outputs tightly enclose the data. This set, which is modeled as a semi-algebraic set of low-degree polynomials, enables the characterization of possibly strong parameter dependencies commonly found in practice. This uncertainty characterization makes the resulting plant model amenable to robust control approaches using polynomial optimization. Furthermore, we use non-convex scenario theory to assess the reliability of the resulting IPM. This assessment yields a distribution-free upper bound on the probability that future data will fall outside the predicted intervals.

interval↗
NASA NTRS1981

On the OLP prediction of the unstable modes of the flat plate turbulent boundary layer

The Orr et al. (OLP) stability analysis is reformulated to yield profiles from hot-wire velocity covariance data in the boundary layer of a flow over a flat plate. The proper orthogonal decomposition theorem (PODT) is used to maximize the mean square of the inner product of the velocity vector with a deterministic candidate vector function in Hilbert space. The OLP formulation couples the PODT for the eddy viscosity with a global extremum principle for the disturbance kinetic energy. Derivation of the governing equations is described analytically, as are the extraction of the mean velocity profile and the eddy viscosity. Finally, techniques for characterizing the dominant mode of the velocity field are introduced and applied to three-dimensional flow over a flat plate. Good agreement is found between the predictions, using laboratory data, and the measured energy and three-dimensional structures of the dominant eddies.

Wadia, A. R.↗
NASA NTRS1984

Investigations of flowfields found in typical combustor geometries

Studies are concerned with experimental and theoretical research on 2-D axisymmetric geometries under low speed, nonreacting, turbulent, swirling flow conditions. The flow enters the test section and proceeds into a larger chamber (the linear expansion ratio D/d = 2, 1.5 and 1) via a sudden or gradual expansion (side wall angle alpha = 90 and 45 degrees). A weak or strong nozzle (of area ratio A/a = 2 and 4) may be positioned downstream at x/D = 2 to form a contraction exit to the test section. Inlet swirl vanes are adjustable to a variety of vane angles with values of theta = 0, 38, 45, 60 and 70 degrees being emphasized. The objective is to determine the effect of these parameters on isothermal flow field patterns, time mean velocities and turbulence quantities, and to establish an improved simulation in the form of a computer prediction code equipped with a suitable turbulence model. The goal of the on going research is to perform experiments and complementary computations with the idea of doing the necessary type of research that will yield improved calculation capability. This involves performing experiments where time mean turbulence quantities are measured and taking input conditions and running an existing prediction code for a variety of test cases so as to compare predictions against experiment.

Lilley, D. G.↗
NASA NTRS2003

Assimilation of Precipitation Information Retrieved from Passive Microwave Sensors

Estimates of surface precipitation and the associated vertical latent heating structure can be retrieved from space-borne passive microwave sensors such as the TRMM Microwave Imager (TMI) and Special Sensor Microwave/Imager (SSM/I). Studies have shown that assimilation of microwave rain rates can improve the quality of global analysis and forecast. Numerical weather prediction (NWP) centers are beginning to make operational use of these data. In the next few years, there will be a gradual increase in microwave rain products available from operational and research satellites, culminating to a target constellation of 9 satellites to provide global rain measurements every 3 hours with the proposed Global Precipitation Measurement (GPM) mission to be launched around 2007. Realizing the full potential of these observations in data assimilation will require continued advances in retrieval algorithms, assimilation techniques, and model physics. I present results from two research efforts at NASA GSFC. The first is on the assimilation of tropical precipitation using temperature/moisture tendency corrections within a continuous variational assimilation framework to improve analyses and forecasts produced by the Goddard Earth Observing System (GEOS) global data assimilation system. Results show that assimilation of TMI and SSM/I rain rates improves not only precipitation and moisture, but also the related clouds, radiation energy fluxes, and large-scale circulations in GEOS analyses. The improved analyses also yield better short-range forecasts, quantitative precipitation forecast (QPF) threat scores, and storm track predictions. The second part consists of results from exploratory experiments on variational assimilation of convective and stratiform latent heating profiles within the general framework of model parameter estimation as a way to identify systematic model errors and optimize physical paremeterization schemes in global forecast and climate models.

Hou, Arthur Y.↗
NASA NTRS1991

Using probabilistic analysis to assess the reliability of predicted SRB aft-skirt stresses

Probabilistic failure analysis is a tool to predict the reliability of a part or system. Probabalistic techniques were used to predict critical stresses which occur in the solid rocket booster aft-skirt during main engine buildup, immediately prior to lift-off. More than any other hold down post (HDP) load component, the Z loads are sensitive to variations in strains and calibration constants. Also, predicted aft-skirt stresses are strongly affected by HDP load variations. Therefore, the instrumented HDP are not effective load transducers for Z loads, and, when used with aft skirt stress indicator equations, yield estimates with large uncertainty. Monte Carlo simulation proved to be a straight forward way of studying the overlapping effects of multiple parameters on predicted equipment performance. An advantage of probabilistic analysis is the degree of uncertainty of each parameter as stated explicitly by its probability distribution. It was noted, however, that the choice of parameter distribution had a large effect on the simulation results. Many times these distributions must be assumed. The engineer who is designing the part should be responsible for the choice of parameter distribution.

Richardson, James A.↗
NASA NTRS1971

Empirical orbit determination using Apollo 14 data

An empirical orbit determination method is shown to yield highly accurate navigation results when applied to lunar orbit tracking data. Regressions and predictions of free flight Apollo 14 tracking data exhibit minimal residual growth, and the solution orbital elements behave in a very consistent manner. Solutions from data acquired during propulsive maneuvers result in degraded predictions. The residual patterns from free flight processing are shown to be consistent from pass to pass and are correlated with lunar topographic features.

Ferrari, A. J.↗
NASA NTRS1974

Stellar occultations

It is important that future occultations by Titan be predicted well in advance, and imperative that they be observed adequately. Stellar occultations can yield reliable temperature/number density profiles of Titan's upper atmosphere near the density level. The temperature profiles can be used to discriminate between atmospheric compositions having high mean molecular weights, and those having low mean molecular weights. Detection of spikes at several wavelengths with high time resolution gives useful limits on the helium content of the atmosphere.

Veverka, J.↗
NASA NTRS1975

On the sputtering of binary compounds

A simple physical model is presented to describe some aspects of the sputtering of compound targets. In particular, expressions are developed for the partial sputtering yields for binary systems in terms of the elemental sputtering rates, the stoichiometric concentrations and surface binding energy. The partial yields depend non-linearly on the bulk target concentrations. Comparison of the theoretical predictions with the data on sputtering of PtSi, NiSi and Cu3Au indicates that the general features are well described.

Haff, P. K.↗
NASA NTRS1984

Analysis and testing for rotordynamic coefficients of turbulent annular seals with different, directionally homogeneous surface-roughness treatment for rotor and stator elements

A theory is presented, based on a simple modification of Hirs' turbulent lubrication equations, to account for different but directionally-homogeneous surface roughness treatments for the rotor and stator of annular seals. The theoretical results agree with von Pragenau's predictions that a damper seal which uses a smooth rotor and a rough stator yields more net damping than a conventional seal which has the same roughness for both the rotor and stator. Experimental results for four stators confirm that properly-designed roughened stators yield higher net damping values and substantially less leakage than seals with smooth surfaces. The best seal from both damping and leakage viewpoints uses a round-hole-pattern stator. Initial results for this stator suggest that, within limits, seals can be designed to yield specified ratios of stiffness to damping.

Childs, D. W.↗
NASA NTRS1986

Fluidized-bed reactor modeling for production of silicon by silane pyrolysis

An ideal backmixed reactor model (CSTR) and a fluidized bed bubbling reactor model (FBBR) were developed for silane pyrolysis. Silane decomposition is assumed to occur via two pathways: homogeneous decomposition and heterogeneous chemical vapor deposition (CVD). Both models account for homogeneous and heterogeneous silane decomposition, homogeneous nucleation, coagulation and growth by diffusion of fines, scavenging of fines by large particles, elutriation of fines and CVD growth of large seed particles. At present the models do not account for attrition. The preliminary comparison of the model predictions with experimental results shows reasonable agreement. The CSTR model with no adjustable parameter yields a lower bound on fines formed and upper estimate on production rates. The FBBR model overpredicts the formation of fines but could be matched to experimental data by adjusting the unkown jet emulsion exchange efficients. The models clearly indicate that in order to suppress the formation of fines (smoke) good gas-solid contacting in the grid region must be achieved and the formation of the bubbles suppressed.

Dudukovic, M. P.↗
NASA NTRS1990

Band bending at Al, In, Ag, and Pt interfaces with CdTe and ZnTe (110)

UV and X-ray photoelectron spectroscopic methods are presently used to study the band-bending behavior and interfacial chemistry of Al, In, Ag, and Pt overlayers on vacuum-cleaved p-CdTe and p-ZnTe (110). All four metals are found to yield Schottky barriers on CdTe and ZnTe. The metal-induced gap states model prediction of a difference in barrier heights for two semiconductors which is dependent on their band lineup is borne out by the results for Ag, Pt, and Al, but not for In. Reaction and intermixing for Al, Ag, and Pt overlayers on CdTe and ZnTe indicate that these interfaces are not ideal.

Wahi, A. K.↗
NASA NTRS1994

Residual strength of thin panels with cracks

The previous design philosophies involving safe life, fail-safe and damage tolerance concepts become inadequate for assuring the safety of aging aircraft structures. For example, the failure mechanism for the Aloha Airline accident involved the coalescence of undetected small cracks at the rivet holes causing a section of the fuselage to peel open during flight. Therefore, the fuselage structure should be designed to have sufficient residual strength under worst case crack configurations and in-flight load conditions. Residual strength is interpreted as the maximum load carrying capacity prior to unstable crack growth. Internal pressure and bending moment constitute the two major components of the external loads on the fuselage section during flight. Although the stiffeners in the form of stringers, frames and tear straps sustain part of the external loads, the significant portion of the load is taken up by the skin. In the presence of a large crack in the skin, the crack lips bulge out with considerable yielding; thus, the geometric and material nonlinearities must be included in the analysis for predicting residual strength. Also, these nonlinearities do not permit the decoupling of in-plane and out-of-plane bending deformations. The failure criterion combining the concepts of absorbed specific energy and strain energy density addresses the aforementioned concerns. The critical absorbed specific energy (local toughness) for the material is determined from the global specimen response and deformation geometry based on the uniaxial tensile test data and detailed finite element modeling of the specimen response. The use of the local toughness and stress-strain response at the continuum level eliminates the size effect. With this critical parameter and stress-strain response, the finite element analysis of the component by using STAGS along with the application of this failure criterion provides the stable crack growth calculations for residual strength predictions.

Madenci, Erdogan↗
NASA NTRS2004

The Robustness of Acoustic Analogies

Acoustic analogies for the prediction of flow noise are exact rearrangements of the flow equations N(right arrow q) = 0 into a nominal sound source S(right arrow q) and sound propagation operator L such that L(right arrow q) = S(right arrow q). In practice, the sound source is typically modeled and the propagation operator inverted to make predictions. Since the rearrangement is exact, any sufficiently accurate model of the source will yield the correct sound, so other factors must determine the merits of any particular formulation. Using data from a two-dimensional mixing layer direct numerical simulation (DNS), we evaluate the robustness of two analogy formulations to different errors intentionally introduced into the source. The motivation is that since S can not be perfectly modeled, analogies that are less sensitive to errors in S are preferable. Our assessment is made within the framework of Goldstein's generalized acoustic analogy, in which different choices of a base flow used in constructing L give different sources S and thus different analogies. A uniform base flow yields a Lighthill-like analogy, which we evaluate against a formulation in which the base flow is the actual mean flow of the DNS. The more complex mean flow formulation is found to be significantly more robust to errors in the energetic turbulent fluctuations, but its advantage is less pronounced when errors are made in the smaller scales.

Freund, J. B.↗
NASA NTRS2015

A Historical Review of Cermet Fuel Development and the Engine Performance Implications

This paper reviews test data for cermet fuel samples developed in the 1960's to better quantify Nuclear Thermal Propulsion (NTP) cermet engine performance, and to better understand contemporary fuel testing results. Over 200 cermet (W-UO2) samples were tested by thermally cycling to 2500 deg (2770 K) in hydrogen. The data indicates two issues at high temperatures: the vaporization rate of UO2 and the chemical stability of UO2. The data show that cladding and chemical stabilizers each result in large, order of magnitude improvements in high temperature performance, while other approaches yield smaller, incremental improvements. Data is very limited above 2770 K, and this complicates predictions of engine performance at high Isp. The paper considers how this material performance data translates into engine performance. In particular, the location of maximum temperature within the fuel element and the effect of heat deposition rate are examined.

Ceramic Nuclear Fuel↗
NASA NTRS2016

Crop Model Improvement Reduces the Uncertainty of the Response to Temperature of Multi-Model Ensembles

To improve climate change impact estimates and to quantify their uncertainty, multi-model ensembles (MMEs) have been suggested. Model improvements can improve the accuracy of simulations and reduce the uncertainty of climate change impact assessments. Furthermore, they can reduce the number of models needed in a MME. Herein, 15 wheat growth models of a larger MME were improved through re-parameterization and/or incorporating or modifying heat stress effects on phenology, leaf growth and senescence, biomass growth, and grain number and size using detailed field experimental data from the USDA Hot Serial Cereal experiment (calibration data set). Simulation results from before and after model improvement were then evaluated with independent field experiments from a CIMMYT worldwide field trial network (evaluation data set). Model improvements decreased the variation (10th to 90th model ensemble percentile range) of grain yields simulated by the MME on average by 39% in the calibration data set and by 26% in the independent evaluation data set for crops grown in mean seasonal temperatures greater than 24 C. MME mean squared error in simulating grain yield decreased by 37%. A reduction in MME uncertainty range by 27% increased MME prediction skills by 47%. Results suggest that the mean level of variation observed in field experiments and used as a benchmark can be reached with half the number of models in the MME. Improving crop models is therefore important to increase the certainty of model-based impact assessments and allow more practical, i.e. smaller MMEs to be used effectively.

damage assessment↗
NASA NTRS1992

Conical detonation waves - A comparison of theoretical and numerical results

A predictive capability for conical oblique detonation waves (ODWs) is discussed with particular attention given to the special case of an axisymmetric conical projectile, which yields necessary conditions for attached waves. A multidimensional numerical model was used to study the influence of a finite Damkoehler number (Da) and viscosity on the formation of a conical ODW. The ODW is predicted for Da on the order of 10, and is found to be important in the ODW formation. For a Da of 1, shock induced combustion is predicted. Simulations of the experimental geometry showed general agreement with experimental flow features, but underpredicted the shock angle. It is suggested that this difference may be caused by inadequate boundary layer resolution, lack of grid orthogonality at the cone surface, and an inappropriate chemical mechanism.

Fort, James A.↗