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This report profiles 13 objectives of the grant it covers, and summarizes significant findings or accomplishments.
As we await the first direct image of an extrasolar giant planet, we can turn to theory and the experience gained in the campaign to detect and understand brown dwarfs for guidance on what to expect. As with any new arrival to a family, there should be a strong family resemblance (one hopes) along with notable unique features and interesting peculiarities. The 300 or so known L and T dwarfs, combined with our own giant planets, already span much of the effective temperature range within which extrasolar planets will be found. Only objects with thick, easily detectable, water clouds have yet to be seen. Thus we already know much of the family. I will describe what we have learned from studying these objects, focusing on the important roles clouds and atmospheric chemistry play in affecting their atmospheres and emergent spectra. Relying on these findings and theoretical models, I'll sketch out what we can expect from extrasolar giant planets, focusing on easily detectable features. Some wild cards, of course, are to be expected. Photochemical hazes, in particular, may obscure the family traits on the faces of Jupiter's distant cousins and may make one wonder, at least momentarily, about the milkman.
The Mars Odyssey Gamma-Ray Spectrometer (GRS) data present a quandary: On the one hand, large deposits of (inferred) water ice are located where thermal models suggest they would form and best be protected, e.g., if deposited during periods of higher obliquity. On the other hand, the volume mixing ratios (approx. 70%) are so high that diffusive deposition of water in regolith pore space (which is the process assumed by these models) cannot be the primary formation mechanism. Furthermore, given that the water is inferred to be so close to the surface (less than a few 10's of cm's), it must be in communication with the atmosphere on time scales that are geologically relatively short (10(exp 3)-10(exp 6) years); therefore the water cannot be archaic. Considering the GRS data, images of mantled, fretted, and disaggregated terrain, and new climate modeling of Mars orbital cycles, we are led to an alternate conclusion about the ice deposits: that they form as subaerial ice sheets. This scenario not only provides a simple explanation for these observations, but may also help explain the formation of globally distributed, sedimentary layered deposits.
The MODerate resolution Imaging Spectrometer (MODIS) aboard the Terra and recently the Aqua platform, produces a set of aerosol products over both ocean and land regions. Previous validation efforts have shown that from a global perspective, aerosol optical depth (AOD) is successfully retrieved from MODIS. Even over coastal regions, the over- land and over-ocean retrievals are consistent with each other, and well matched with ground-based sunphotometer measurements (such as AERONET). However, the East Coast of the United States is one region where there is consistently a discrepancy between land and ocean retrievals. Over the ocean, MODIS AODs are consistent with coastal sunphotometer measurements, but over land, AODs are consistently over- estimated. In this study we use field data from the Chesapeake Lighthouse and Aircraft Measurements for Satellites experiment (CLAMS), (held during summer 2001) to determine the aerosol properties at a number of sites. Using the 6-S radiative transfer package, we compute simulated satellite radiances and compare them with observed MODIS radiances. We believe that the AOD over-estimation is not likely due to an incorrect choice of the urban/industrial aerosol models. Using 6-S to do an atmospheric correction for a very low AOD case, we show rather, that the discrepancies are likely a result of incorrect assumptions about the surface reflectance properties. Understanding and improving MODIS retrievals over the East Coast will not only improve the global quality of MODIS, but also would enable the use of MODIS as a tool for monitoring regional aerosol events.
The Earth Satellite Corporation (EarthSat) has been providing orthorectified Landsat data to NASA.Also included are 5 degree by 6 degree mosaics for most of the planet. The Earth Science Applications Directorate developed a specialized viewer application to view and navigate these individual tiles. It is the intent of NASA to make this publicly available and useable through the distribution of the U.S. Digital Landsat Mosaic Product.
The variable-resolution stretched-grid (SG) GEOS (Goddard Earth Observing System) GCM has been used for limited ensemble integrations with a relatively coarse, 60 to 100 km, regional resolution over the U.S. The experiments have been run for the 12-year period, 1987-1998, that includes the recent ENSO cycles. Initial conditions 1-2 days apart are used for ensemble members. The goal of the experiments is analyzing the long-term SG-GCM ensemble integrations in terms of their potential in reducing the uncertainties of regional climate simulation while producing realistic mesoscales. The ensemble integration results are analyzed for both prognostic and diagnostic fields. A special attention is devoted to analyzing the variability of precipitation over the U.S. The internal variability of the SG-GCM has been assessed. The ensemble means appear to be closer to the verifying analyses than the individual ensemble members. The ensemble means capture realistic mesoscale patterns, especially those of induced by orography. Two ENSO cycles have been analyzed in terms their impact on the U.S. climate, especially on precipitation. The ability of the SG-GCM simulations to produce regional climate anomalies has been confirmed. However, the optimal size of the ensembles depending on fine regional resolution used, is still to be determined. The SG-GCM ensemble simulations are performed as a preparation or a preliminary stage for the international SGMIP (Stretched-Grid Model Intercomparison Project) that is under way with participation of the major centers and groups employing the SG-approach for regional climate modeling.
The SAE G-11 RMSL Division and Probabilistic Methods Committee meeting sponsored by the Picatinny Arsenal during March 1-3, 2004 at Westin Morristown, will report progress on projects for probabilistic assessment of Army system and launch an initiative for probabilistic education. The meeting features several Army and industry Senior executives and Ivy League Professor to provide an industry/government/academia forum to review RMSL technology; reliability and probabilistic technology; reliability-based design methods; software reliability; and maintainability standards. With over 100 members including members with national/international standing, the mission of the G-11s Probabilistic Methods Committee is to enable/facilitate rapid deployment of probabilistic technology to enhance the competitiveness of our industries by better, faster, greener, smarter, affordable and reliable product development.
A common problem for archaeologists studying ancient settlement in the Maya Lowlands is overcoming the dense vegetation in order to obtain an accurate regional perspective of the presence of archaeological sites, their exact locations and their overall extents. Most often this is done by extensive ground surveys in which many individuals chop parallel paths through the vegetation in search of sites. Once a site is found an effort is made to mark its location on a regional map and to explore its perimeter. Obtaining locational information has been made dramatically easier in recent years with the advent of improved Global Positioning Systems (GPS), however the process of initial identification of sites and the determination of their borders is exceedingly labor intensive and has remained relatively unchanged since the beginning of settlement surveys in the region in the 1950's. Currently, we are revolutionizing settlement survey in the Maya Lowlands by using remotely sensed data from IKONOS, Quickbird, and Eol, satellites. The Ancient Maya built their cities, towns and even their smallest hamlets using excavated limestone and lime plasters. We propose that the decay of these structures provides a unique microenvironment for the growth of vegetation as the levels of moisture and nutrition within the ruins vary substantially from those in the surrounding forest. These microenvironmental differences on the ground are likewise represented by compositional differences in the forest canopy both in the species present and in leaf color (representing moisture/nutritional stress) visible through the analysis of high- resolution satellite data. In this way the detailed analysis of forest composition can reveal a detailed picture of the ancient settlements that lie beneath it. Preliminary examinations using this technique have been very successful and we are refining these techniques in order to efficiently comprehend the details of Ancient Maya settlement in the Lowlands.
The paper discussss the GSFC research interests and how GSFC contributes to solve some of most basic questions Humans having been asking for thousands of years. How big is universe? How old is the universe? Will Humans and industrialization of the Earth change the climate significantly? Can Humans live in space? How does the Sun affect life on Earth? Goddard s role in Earth Science is very unique. We buy and build instruments that collect data about weather around the world. By flying those instruments on spacecraft, we have a unique vantage point to observe the weather patterns on a global scale. The best example is a satellite network called GOES (Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite) which produces the weather pictures and videos you see on the nightly news and weather channel. Earth Science is another area of great interest to Goddard scientists and spacecraft designers. This photo of an oil fire in Iraq taken on March 2Ist of this year shows the down range effect pollution will have on entire region. Space Weather has become extremely important in the Space business. Satellites not only can become inoperable due to the occasional high level of radiation but astronauts can be exposed to dangerous levels of radiation. Space Weather is actually an issue when planning Extra Vehicular Activities (EVA). At Goddard, our operation of the Hubble Space Telescope has meant we have worked closely with several Shuttle crews over the years.
Direct observations of sunspots span the nearly 400 years since the time of Galileo. Dedicated observing programs at several observatories over the last 150 years have provided detailed information not only on the number of sunspots but on their sizes and positions as well. The data acquired by those original observers, and by those who have more recently brought those observations to light, provide important clues about the nature of the solar cycle and its contribution to space climate. The period of the cycle, the equator-ward drift of the active latitudes, the asymmetry between the rise to maximum and the fill to minimum, shifting asymmetries between northern and southern hemisphere activity, the tilt of active regions, and the increasing amplitude of the cycles since the Maunder Minimum are all well established. Other, less well established characteristics such as multi-cycle and short-term periodicities, often depend upon the method of data analysis. The strong correlation between sunspot statistics and other measures of solar activity, coupled with the length of the sunspot record, make these observations extremely valuable for characterizing and understanding space climate.
This paper describes the results of an independent analysis of the probable and contributory causes of selected aviation accidents in the United States between 1996 and 2003. The purpose of the study was to assess the comparative frequency of a variety of causal factors in the reporting of these adverse events. Although our results show that more of these high consequence accidents were attributed to human error than to any other single factor, a large number of reports also mentioned wider systemic issues, including the managerial and regulatory context of aviation operations. These wider issues are more likely to appear as contributory rather than primary causes in this set of accident reports.
Today's air traffic control system is approaching the point of saturation, as evidenced by increasing delays across the National Airspace System (NAS). There exists an opportunity to enhance NAS efficiency and reduce delays by improving strategic communication throughout the ATC system. Although several measures have been taken to improve communication (e.g., Collaborative Decision Making tools), communication issues between ATC facilities remain. It is hypothesized that by identifying the key issues plaguing inter-facility strategic communication, steps can be taken to enhance these communications, and therefore ATC system efficiency. In this report, a series of site visits were performed at Boston and New York ATC facilities as well as at the Air Traffic Control System Command Center. The results from these site visits were used to determine the current communication and coordination structure of Traffic Management Coordinators, who hold a pivotal role in inter-facility communications. Several themes emerged from the study, including: ambiguity of organizational structure in the current ATC system, awkward coordination between ATC facilities, information flow issues, organizational culture issues, and negotiation behaviors used to cope with organizational culture issues.
Patients with balance disorders want answers to the following basic questions: (1) What is causing my problem? and (2) What can be done about my problem? Information to fully answer these questions must include status of both sensory and motor components of the balance control systems. Computerized dynamic posturography (CDP) provides quantitative assessment of both sensory and motor components of postural control along with how the sensory inputs to the brain interact. This paper reviews the scientific basis and clinical applications of CDP. Specifically, studies describing the integration of vestibular inputs with other sensory systems for postural control are briefly summarized. Clinical applications, including assessment, rehabilitation, and management are presented. Effects of aging on postural control along with prevention and management strategies are discussed.
Models of planetary formation can be tested by comparison of their ability to predict features of our Solar System in a consistent way, and then extrapolated to other hypothetical planetary systems by different choice of parameters. When this is done, it is found that the resulting systems are insensitive to direct effects of the mass of the star, but do strongly depend on the properties of the disk, principally its surface density. Major uncertainty results from lack of an adequate theoretical model that predicts the existence, size, and distribution of analogs of our Solar System, particularly the gas giants Jupiter and Saturn. Nevertheless, reasons can be found for expecting that planetary systems, including those containing biologically habitable planets similar to Earth, may be abundant in the Galaxy and Universe.
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Progress on OMI operational algorithms for BrO, OClO, and HCHO includes: A parameterization scheme for OMI instrument function lab measurements was developed for both UV and Visible instrument channels. The scheme was implemented for all three PGEs and extensively tested. PGEs now have the option of either using the parameterized lab measurements or fitting a symmetric or asymmetric Gaussian function on-line.
Progress on OMI operational algorithms for BrO, OClO, and HCHO includes: Implemented changes to PGE_Description.txt that were required to promote the PGEs to Integration. Studies were initiated for a parameterization of the laboratory measurements of the OMi instrument function for use in the PGEs. V0.9.27 of the PGEs were delivered to the DAAC.
The records concerning the number, sizes, and positions of sunspots provide a direct means of characterizing solar activity over nearly 400 years. Sunspot numbers are strongly correlated with modem measures of solar activity including: 10.7-cm radio flux, total irradiance, x-ray flares, sunspot area, the baseline level of geomagnetic activity, and the flux of galactic cosmic rays. The Group Sunspot Number provides information on 27 sunspot cycles, far more than any of the modem measures of solar activity, and enough to provide important details about long-term variations in solar activity or Space Climate. The sunspot record shows: 1) sunspot cycles have periods of 131 plus or minus 14 months with a normal distribution; 2) sunspot cycles are asymmetric with a fast rise and slow decline; 3) the rise time from minimum to maximum decreases with cycle amplitude; 4) large amplitude cycles are preceded by short period cycles; 5 ) large amplitude cycles are preceded by high minima; 6) although the two hemispheres remain linked in phase, there are significant asymmetries in the activity in each hemisphere; 7) the rate at which the active latitudes drift toward the equator is anti-correlated with the cycle period, 8) the rate at which the active latitudes drift toward the equator is positively correlated with the amplitude of the cycle after the next; 9) there has been a significant secular increase in the amplitudes of the sunspot cycles since the end of the Maunder Minimum (1715); and 10) there is weak evidence for a quasi-periodic variation in the sunspot cycle amplitudes with a period of about 90 years. These characteristics indicate that the next solar cycle should have a maximum smoothed sunspot number of about 1.45 plus or minus 30 in 2010 while the following cycle should have a maximum of about 70 plus or minus 30 in 2023.