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DOE OSTI2022

Precursor Analysis Report: Conti Ransomware Attack on the Health Service Executive of Ireland 2021

The Conti Ransomware Attack on the Health Service Executive (HSE) of Ireland 2021 Precursor Analysis Report leverages publicly available information about the attack and catalogs anomalous observables for each technique employed by the adversary. This analysis is based upon the methodology of the Cybersecurity for the Operational Technology Environment (CyOTE) program. The HSE provides public healthcare corporate services and operational services throughout Ireland, with critical functions including the acute national ambulance service, acute hospital service, and community healthcare service. On 14 May 2021, Conti ransomware encrypted 80 percent of the HSE’s Information Technology (IT) infrastructure across corporate, hospital, community, and electronic health record services. Conti is a ransomware-as-a-service operation that encrypts local files, uses double extortion against victims, and is facilitated by many intrusion tools. The attack forced the HSE to shut down its entire IT infrastructure to contain the ransomware, forcing employees to revert to pen and paper recordkeeping and leading to the cancellation of many appointments and procedures. The adversary also exfiltrated 700 GB of data, compromising the confidentiality of patients’ protected health information. Had the adversary targeted the COVID-19 cloud systems or operational technology assets, such as Internet of Medical Things medical devices or smart building management systems, the impact of the attack would almost certainly have been far more severe. Researchers and analysts identified 21 unique techniques (used in a sequence of 23 steps) likely utilized during the attack with a total of 1,185 observables using MITRE ATT&CK® for Industrial Control Systems. The CyOTE program assesses observables accompanying techniques used prior to the triggering event to identify opportunities to detect malicious activity. If observables accompanying the attack techniques are perceived and investigated prior to the triggering event, earlier comprehension of malicious activity can take place. Twenty-one of the identified techniques used during the attack on the HSE were precursors to the triggering event. Analysis identified 1,086 observables associated with these precursor techniques, 850 of which were assessed to have an increased likelihood of being perceived in the 57 days preceding the triggering event. The response and comprehension time could have been reduced if the observables had been identified earlier. The information gathered in this report contributes to a library of observables tied to a repository of artifacts, data sources, and technique detection references for practitioners and developers to support the comprehension of indicators of attack. Asset owners and operators can use these products if they experience similar observables or to prepare for comparable scenarios.

45 MILITARY TECHNOLOGY, WEAPONRY, AND NATIONAL DEF↗

DOE OSTI2022

Precursor Analysis Report: Cyber Attack on Thyssenkrupp Blast Furnace 2014

The Cyber Attack on Thyssenkrupp Blast Furnace 2014 Precursor Analysis Report leverages publicly available information about the Thyssenkrupp Steel Mill cyber attack and catalogs anomalous observables for each technique employed in the attack. This analysis is based upon the methodology of the Cybersecurity for the Operational Technology Environment (CyOTE) program. In December 2014, the German Government’s Federal Office for Information Security (BSI) released a report detailing a cyber attack on a German steel mill that occurred earlier that year, though exact dates and details of the attack were not revealed. While the report did not specify the name of the company, multiple sources identified the victim as one of Europe’s largest steel manufacturers, Thyssenkrupp AG. Further, Thyssenkrupp announced on 16 May of that year that Europe’s largest blast furnace, “Schwelgern 2,” located at its facility in Duisburg, Germany, would be offline for several weeks for repairs and upgrades, suggesting Schwelgern 2 was likely the target of the attack. The attack began in early 2014, when adversaries infiltrated the victim steel mill’s Information Technology (IT) network via a spearphishing campaign, then worked their way into the Operational Technology (OT) environment, where they executed software that caused denial of service, denial of control, and eventually a loss of control. This led to the blast furnace shutting down without proper safety procedures, resulting in catastrophic physical damage. No lives were lost in the incident, but ThyssenKrupp suffered $4 million in damage to the blast furnace and an additional $6 million in lost revenue. The adversaries required specialized knowledge and expertise in steel production, which enabled them to compromise a variety of internal systems and components across both IT and OT networks. The attack also demonstrated detailed knowledge of the industrial control systems (ICS) and production processes being used. This combination resulted in one of the earliest known publicly reported cybersecurity incidents resulting in physical damage to ICS equipment. Researchers and analysts identified 19 unique techniques (used in a sequence of 20 steps) utilized during the attack with a total of 454 observables using MITRE ATT&CK® for Industrial Control Systems. The CyOTE program assesses observables accompanying techniques used prior to the triggering event to identify opportunities to detect malicious activity. If observables accompanying the attack techniques are perceived and investigated prior to the triggering event, earlier comprehension of malicious activity can take place. Fifteen of the identified techniques used during the Thyssenkrupp cyber attack were precursors to the triggering event. Analysis identified 369 observables associated with these precursor techniques, 316 of which were assessed to have an increased likelihood of being perceived in the 120 days preceding the triggering event. The response and comprehension time could have been reduced if the observables had been identified earlier. The information gathered in this report contributes to a library of observables tied to a repository of artifacts, data sources, and technique detection references for practitioners and developers to support the comprehension of indicators of attack. Asset owners and operators can use these products if they experience similar observables or to prepare for comparable scenarios.

45 MILITARY TECHNOLOGY, WEAPONRY, AND NATIONAL DEF↗

DOE OSTI2022

Precursor Analysis Report: Doppelpaymer Ransomware Attack on Petroleos Mexicanos (PEMEX) 2019

The DoppelPaymer Ransomware Attack on Petroleos Mexicanos (PEMEX) 2019 Precursor Analysis Report leverages publicly available information about the PEMEX cyber attack and catalogs anomalous observables for each technique employed in the attack. This analysis is based upon the methodology of the Cybersecurity for the Operational Technology Environment (CyOTE) program. The 2019 DoppelPaymer ransomware attack on PEMEX, Mexico’s nationalized petroleum corporation, highlights a unique threat that ransomware and cybercriminal extortion poses to Operational Technology (OT) environments in critical infrastructure. The incident began with an employee downloading commodity malware that allowed adversaries to gain initial access to PEMEX’s enterprise environment. After conducting privilege escalation, tool ingress, and data exfiltration, the adversaries deployed DoppelPaymer ransomware throughout the PEMEX enterprise environment, resulting in the company having to take dozens of systems offline for at least several days. Although PEMEX stated that their operations were not affected, the data exfiltrated from PEMEX was made available for download on DoppelPaymer’s leak site, as well as on other illicit criminal forums. This stolen data included not only company information, but also sensitive OT-specific configuration data. This incident showcases how cybercriminal exfiltration and posting of sensitive OT architecture documentation can pose security concerns for the targeted organization for years due to the long lifespan of OT assets and architectures. Researchers and analysts identified 18 unique techniques utilized during the attack with a total of 190 observables using MITRE ATT&CK® for Industrial Control Systems. The CyOTE program assesses observables accompanying techniques used prior to the triggering event to identify opportunities to detect malicious activity. If observables accompanying the attack techniques are perceived and investigated prior to the triggering event, earlier comprehension of malicious activity can take place. Fifteen of the identified techniques used during the DoppelPaymer ransomware attack were precursors to the triggering event. Analysis identified 163 observables associated with these precursor techniques, 34 of which were assessed to have an increased likelihood of being perceived in the 60 days preceding the triggering event. The response and comprehension time could have been reduced if the observables had been identified earlier. The information gathered in this report contributes to a library of observables tied to a repository of artifacts, data sources, and technique detection references for practitioners and developers to support the comprehension of indicators of attack. Asset owners and operators can use these products if they experience similar observables or to prepare for comparable scenarios.

45 MILITARY TECHNOLOGY, WEAPONRY, AND NATIONAL DEF↗

DOE OSTI2022

Precursor Analysis Report: Remote Access Attack on Oldsmar Water Treatment Facility 2021

The Remote Access Attack on Oldsmar Water Treatment Facility 2021 Precursor Analysis Report leverages publicly available information about the Oldsmar cyber attack and catalogs anomalous observables for each technique employed in the attack. This analysis is based upon the methodology of the Cybersecurity for the Operational Technology Environment (CyOTE) program. On 5 February 2021, an adversary gained unauthorized remote access to Bruce T. Haddock Water Treatment Plant in Oldsmar, Florida, which provides treated water to 15,000 customers. The adversary accessed the facility’s Supervisory Control and Data Acquisition (SCADA) workstation and human machine interface (HMI) to change the chemical concentration of sodium hydroxide, commonly referred to as lye and used to regulate acidity levels, from 100 parts per million (PPM) to 11,100 PPM. The chemical was raised to lethal levels that if ingested could lead to serious soft tissue damage, burns, or even death. The facility, however, had redundancies and alarms in place to alert personnel of dangerous chemical levels, and facility officials stated it would have taken 24 to 36 hours for the chemical changes to affect the water supply. Researchers and analysts identified six unique techniques utilized during the attack with a total of 23 observables using MITRE ATT&CK® for Industrial Control Systems. The CyOTE program assesses observables accompanying techniques used prior to the triggering event to identify opportunities to detect malicious activity. If observables accompanying the attack techniques are perceived and investigated prior to the triggering event, earlier comprehension of malicious activity can take place. Four of the identified techniques used during the Oldsmar cyber attack were precursors to the triggering event. Analysis identified 21 observables associated with these precursor techniques, 20 of which were assessed to have an increased likelihood of being perceived in the minutes preceding the triggering event. The response and comprehension time could have been reduced if the observables had been identified earlier. The information gathered in this report contributes to a library of observables tied to a repository of artifacts, data sources, and technique detection references for practitioners and developers to support the comprehension of indicators of attack. Asset owners and operators can use these products if they experience similar observables or to prepare for comparable scenarios.

45 MILITARY TECHNOLOGY, WEAPONRY, AND NATIONAL DEF↗

DOE OSTI2024

Slow control and TDAQ systems installation and tests in the Mu2e experiment

The Mu2e experiment at Fermilab will attempt to detect a coherent neutrinoless conversion of a muon into an electron in the field of an aluminum nucleus, with a sensitivity that is 10,000 times greater than existing limits. The Mu2e trigger and data acquisition system (TDAQ) uses the otsdaqframework as its online Data Acquisition System (DAQ) solution. Developed at Fermilab, otsdaq integrates several components, such as an artdaq-based DAQ, an art-based event processing, and an EPICS-based detector control system (DCS), and provides a uniform multi-user interface toits components through a web browser. The data streams from the Mu2e tracker and calorimeter are handled by the artdaq-based DAQ and processed by a one-level software trigger implemented within the art framework. Events accepted by the trigger have their data combined, post-trigger, with the separately read-out data from the Mu2e Cosmic Ray Veto system. The foundation of Mu2e DCS, EPICS, an Experimental Physics and Industrial Control System, is an open-source platform for monitoring, controlling, alarming, and archiving. Over the last three years, a prototype ofthe TDAQ and DCS systems has been built and tested at Fermilab’s Feynman Computing Center.Currently, the production system installation is underway. At the end, this work presents a brief update on the installation of racks and DAQ hardware.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗

DOE OSTI2023

SDSS-IV MaNGA: How Galaxy Interactions Influence Active Galactic Nuclei

We present a comparative study of active galactic nuclei (AGN) between galaxy pairs and isolated galaxies with the final data release of the MaNGA integral field spectroscopic survey. We build a sample of 391 kinematic galaxy pairs within the footprint of the survey and select AGN using the survey's spectra. We use the comoving volume densities of the AGN samples to quantify the effects that tidal interactions have on the triggering of nuclear accretion. Our hypothesis is that the pair sample contains AGN that are triggered by not only stochastic accretion but also tidally induced accretion and correlated accretion. With the level of stochastically triggered AGN fixed by the control sample, we model the strength of tidally induced accretion and correlated accretion as a function of projected separation (r p ) and compare the model expectations with the observed volume densities of dual AGN and offset AGN (single AGN in a pair). At r p ~ 10 kpc, we find that tidal interactions induce ~30% more AGN than stochastic fueling and cause ~12% of the offset AGN to become dual AGN because of correlations. The strength of both these effects decreases with increasing r p . We also find that the [O III ] luminosities of the AGN in galaxy pairs are consistent with those found in isolated galaxies, likely because stochastically fed AGN dominate even among close pairs. Our results illustrate that while we can detect tidally induced effects statistically, it is challenging to separate tidally induced AGN and stochastically triggered AGN in interacting galaxies.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2022

Searching for Clues for a Matter Dominated Universe in Liquid Argon Time Projection Chambers

Liquid Argon Time Projection Chambers (LArTPCs) represent one of the most widely utilized neutrino detection techniques in neutrino experiments, for instance, in the Short Baseline Neutrino (SBN) program and the future large-scale LArTPC: Deep Underground Neutrino Experiment (DUNE). The high-end technique, facilitating excellent spatial and calorimetric reconstruction resolution, also enables testing exotic Beyond Standard Model (BSM) theories, such as baryon number violation (BNV) processes (e.g., proton-decay, neutron-antineutron oscillation). At the same time, Machine Learning (ML) techniques have demonstrated their ubiquitous use in recent decades; ML techniques have also become some of the most powerful tools in high-energy physics (HEP) analyses. Furthermore, the development of algorithms to cater to the needs of problems in HEP (i.e., triggering, reconstruction, improving sensitivity, etc.) has also become an active area of research. By developing a combined approach using Convolutional Neural Network (CNN) and Boosted Decision Tree (BDT) techniques, the sensitivity of neutron-antineutron oscillation in DUNE is evaluated for a projected exposure of 400kton·years. Additionally, to meet the triggering requirement to select such rare events in DUNE, such a search is only supported with highly efficient self-triggering algorithms. An ML-based self-triggering scheme for large-scale LArTPCs, such as DUNE, is also developed with the intention of implementation on field-programmable gate arrays (FPGAs). The ML-based approach for searching for neutron-antineutron oscillation can be demonstrated and validated on the current LArTPC MicroBooNE. The analysis in MicroBooNE represents the first-ever search for neutron-antineutron oscillation in a LArTPC. DUNE's projected 90% C.L. sensitivity to the neutron antineutron oscillation lifetime is 6.45×10³² years, assuming 1.327×10³⁵ neutron·years, equivalent to 10 years of DUNE far detector exposure (400kton·years). For MicroBooNE, assuming 372 seconds of exposure (equivalent to 3.13×10³⁶ neutron·years), the 90% C.L. lifetime sensitivity is found at 3.07×10²⁵ yrs, after accounting for Monte-Carlo statistical uncertainty and systematic uncertainty from detector effects.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗

NASA NTRS1974

High isolation RF signal selection switches

A selection switch with high isolation between RF signal input terminals is achieved with a gated Schmitt trigger circuit feeding into a control NAND gate in each signal switching channel. The control NAND gates of the separate signal channels are coupled to an output terminal by a single NAND gate. The schmitt trigger circuits and all gates are implemented with Schottky transistor-transistor logic circuits having input clamping diodes. Each Schmitt trigger circuit includes two cascaded NAND gates and a feedback isolation Schottky diode between one input terminal connected to receive an RF input and another input terminal connected to receive a feedback signal from the second of the two cascaded NAND gates. Both NAND gates of the Schmitt trigger circuits are enabled by the same switch control signal which enables the control gates.

Hanna, M. F.↗

NASA NTRS1983

EXOS-B/Siple station VLF wave-particle interaction experiments. II - Transmitter signals and associated emissions

New observations in the magnetosphere of coherent VLF waves from the Siple Station, Antarctica, transmitter and associated VLF emissions triggered by the transmitter signals are reported. The data analyzed were acquired on the EXOS-B high-altitude satellite during the period July 15-September 7, 1979, during joint VLF wave-injection experiments involving scientists from Kyoto, Tokyo, and Stanford universities. The experiments were carried out to gain a deeper understanding of the interactions between coherent VLF waves and energetic particles in the magnetosphere, in particular, the whistler-mode instability through which both natural and stimulated VLF emissions are produced. Analysis of the emission-triggering events provides strong evidence that the triggering took place inside whistler-mode ducts and that the emissions reached the satellite only after being scattered at one end of the ducts by ionospheric irregularities. It is concluded that in the noon sector of the magnetosphere, the amplitude of nonducted signals from the Siple transmitter is generally less than the threshold level necessary for triggering in the nonducted mode.

Bell, T. F.↗

NASA NTRS1985

Enhanced growth of whistlers due to bunching of untrapped electrons

Man-made signals propagating in the whistler mode in the magnetoshere have been observed to be amplified and to trigger other VLF emissions in the absence of other detectable magnetospheric signals in ground-based recordings. The absence of other magnetospheric signals implies that the growth rate of the triggered wave is enhanced over background noise. It is shown that, for at least low amplitude triggering waves, the phase bunching of untrapped electrons can account for the observed enhanced growth. The phase bunching is initially produced by perturbations in the electron trajectories due to their interactions with the front of the wave. Due to the inhomogeneity of the geomagnetic field, the phase-bunched electrons are able to gyroresonantly interact with a later portion of the triggering wave. Because the electrons are phase bunched, the electrons can lose energy to the wave faster than phase-random electrons and are thereby able to produce enhanced growth. Plasma conditions for which this phase bunching is effective in producing enhanced growth are derived.

Winglee, R. M.↗

NASA NTRS1988

Measurements of induced voltages and currents in a distribution power line and associated atmospheric parameters

The frequency and intensity of thunderstorms around the Kennedy Space Center (KSC) has affected scheduled launch, landing, and other ground operations for many years. In order to protect against and provide safe working facilities, KSC has performed and hosted several studies on lightning phenomena. For the reasons mentioned above, KSC has established the Atmospheric Science Field Laboratory (ASFL). At these facilities KSC launches wire-towing rockets into thunderstorms to trigger natural lightning to the launch site. A program named Rocket Triggered Lightning Program (RTLP) is being conducted at the ASFL. This report calls for two of the experiments conducted in the summer 1988 Rocket Triggered Lightning Program. One experiment suspended an electric field mill over the launching areas from a balloon about 500 meters high to measure the space charges over the launching area. The other was to connect a waveform recorder to a nearby distribution power line to record currents and voltages wave forms induced by natural and triggered lightning.

Santiago-Perez, Julio↗

NASA NTRS1997

A Search for Nontriggered Gamma-Ray Bursts in the BATSE Database

We describe a search of archival data from the Burst and Transient Source Experiment (BATSE). The purpose of the search is to find astronomically interesting transients that did not activate the burst-detection (or "trigger") system on board the spacecraft. Our search is sensitive to events with peak fluxes (on the 1.024 s timescale) that are lower by a factor of approximately 2 than can be detected with the on-board burst trigger. In a search of 345 days of archival data, we detected 91 events in the 50-300 keV range that resemble classical gamma-ray bursts but that did not activate the on-board burst trigger. We also detected 110 low-energy (25-50 keV) events of unknown origin that may include activity from' soft gamma repeater (SGR) 1806-20 and bursts and flares from X-ray binaries. This paper gives the occurrence times, estimated source directions, durations, peak fluxes, and fluences for the 91 gamma-ray burst candidates. The direction and intensity distributions of these bursts imply that the biases inherent in the on-board trigger mechanism have not significantly affected the completeness of the published BATSE gamma-ray burst catalogs.

Kommers, Jefferson M.↗

NASA NTRS2005

Initiation of Coronal Mass Ejections

This paper is a synopsis of the initiation of the strong-field magnetic explosions that produce large, fast coronal mass ejections. Cartoons based on observations are used to describe the inferred basic physical processes and sequences that trigger and drive the explosion. The magnetic field that explodes is a sheared-core bipole that may or may not be embedded in surrounding strong magnetic field, and may or may not contain a flux rope before it starts to explode. We describe three different mechanisms that singly or in combination trigger the explosion: (1) runaway internal tether-cutting reconnection, (2) runaway external tether-cutting reconnection, and (3) ideal MHD instability or loss or equilibrium. For most eruptions, high-resolution, high-cadence magnetograms and chromospheric and coronal movies (such as from TRACE and/or Solar-B) of the pre-eruption region and of the onset of the eruption and flare are needed to tell which one or which combination of these mechanisms is the trigger. Whatever the trigger, it leads to the production of an erupting flux rope. Using a simple model flux rope, we demonstrate that the explosion can be driven by the magnetic pressure of the expanding flux rope, provided the shape of the expansion is "fat" enough.

Moore, Ronald L.↗

NASA NTRS2009

Complementary Paired G4FETs as Voltage-Controlled NDR Device

It is possible to synthesize a voltage-controlled negative-differential-resistance (NDR) device or circuit by use of a pair of complementary G4FETs (four-gate field-effect transistors). [For more information about G4FETs, please see the immediately preceding article]. As shown in Figure 1, the present voltage-controlled NDR device or circuit is an updated version of a prior NDR device or circuit, known as a lambda diode, that contains a pair of complementary junction field-effect transistors (JFETs). (The lambda diode is so named because its current-versus- voltage plot bears some resemblance to an upper-case lambda.) The present version can be derived from the prior version by substituting G4FETs for the JFETs and connecting both JFET gates of each G4FET together. The front gate terminals of the G4FETs constitute additional terminals (that is, terminals not available in the older JFET version) to which one can apply control voltages VN and VP. Circuits in which NDR devices have been used include (1) Schmitt triggers and (2) oscillators containing inductance/ capacitance (LC) resonant circuits. Figure 2 depicts such circuits containing G4FET NDR devices like that of Figure 1. In the Schmitt trigger shown here, the G4FET NDR is loaded with an ordinary inversion-mode, p-channel, metal oxide/semiconductor field-effect transistor (inversion-mode PMOSFET), the VN terminal of the G4FET NDR device is used as an input terminal, and the input terminals of the PMOSFET and the G4FET NDR device are connected. VP can be used as an extra control voltage (that is, a control voltage not available in a typical prior Schmitt trigger) for adjusting the pinch-off voltage of the p-channel G4FET and thereby adjusting the trigger-voltage window. In the oscillator, a G4FET NDR device is loaded with a conventional LC tank circuit. As in other LC NDR oscillators, oscillation occurs because the NDR counteracts the resistance in the tank circuit. The advantage of this G4FET-NDR LC oscillator over a conventional LC NDR oscillator is that one can apply a time-varying signal to one of the extra control input terminals (VN or VP) to modulate the conductance of the NDR device and thereby amplitude-modulate the output signal.

Mojarradi, Mohammad↗

NASA NTRS2010

What Can Geolocated Sferics Tell Us About Terrestrial Gamma-Ray Flashes?

The Fermi Gamma-ray Burst Monitor (GBM) has been detecting TGFs with increasing sensitivity over the past two years, owing to changes in flight software that have lowered its threshold for triggering and, recently, allowed a search for TGFs weaker than those which would cause an onboard trigger. Associations between TGFs detected in the first 18 months of operation and sferics detected using the World Wide Lightning Location Network (WWLLN) show that TGF peaks and lightning discharges are simultaneous to within tens of microseconds, and that GBM triggered on TGFs that occurred up to a distance of 300 km from the sub-spacecraft position. In the work presented here, we look for associations between TGFs detected by the Reuven Ramaty High Energy Solar Spectroscopic Imager (RHESSI) and WWLLN sferics over the same 18 months, and we compare the match rate and detection horizon of the two instruments. We also look for associations between WWLLN sferics and more recent GBM TGFs, both triggered events and weaker TGFs uncovered in our untriggered search. We discuss whether in this new mode, GBM is detecting TGFs that are more distant from the sub-spacecraft point than 300 km, or whether the weaker TGFs are instead indicative of a luminosity distribution, either because the weaker ones originate deeper in the atmosphere or because they are intrinsically dimmer.

Connaughton, V.↗

NASA NTRS2011

A Model for Magnetically Coupled Sympathetic Eruptions

Sympathetic eruptions on the Sun have been observed for several decades, but the mechanisms by which one eruption can trigger another remain poorly understood. We present a three-dimenSional MHD simulation that suggests two possible magnetic trigger mechanisms for sympathetic eruptions. We consider a configuration that contains two coronal flux ropes located within a pseudo-streamer and one rope located next to it. A sequence of eruptions is initiated by triggering the eruption of the flux rope next to the streamer. The expansion of the rope leads to two consecutive reconnection events, each of which triggers the eruption of a flux rope by removing a sufficient amount of overlying flux. The simulation qualitatively reproduces important aspects of the global sympathetic event on 2010 August 1 and provides a scenario for the so-called twin filament eruptions. The suggested mechanisms are also applicable for sympathetic eruptions occurring in other magnetic configurations.

Torok, T.↗

NASA NTRS2011

Bridging Empirical and Physical Approaches for Landslide Monitoring and Early Warning

Rainfall-triggered landslides typically occur and are evaluated at local scales, using slope-stability models to calculate coincident changes in driving and resisting forces at the hillslope level in order to anticipate slope failures. Over larger areas, detailed high resolution landslide modeling is often infeasible due to difficulties in quantifying the complex interaction between rainfall infiltration and surface materials as well as the dearth of available in situ soil and rainfall estimates and accurate landslide validation data. This presentation will discuss how satellite precipitation and surface information can be applied within a landslide hazard assessment framework to improve landslide monitoring and early warning by considering two disparate approaches to landslide hazard assessment: an empirical landslide forecasting algorithm and a physical slope-stability model. The goal of this research is to advance near real-time landslide hazard assessment and early warning at larger spatial scales. This is done by employing high resolution surface and precipitation information within a probabilistic framework to provide more physically-based grounding to empirical landslide triggering thresholds. The empirical landslide forecasting tool, running in near real-time at http://trmm.nasa.gov, considers potential landslide activity at the global scale and relies on Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) precipitation data and surface products to provide a near real-time picture of where landslides may be triggered. The physical approach considers how rainfall infiltration on a hillslope affects the in situ hydro-mechanical processes that may lead to slope failure. Evaluation of these empirical and physical approaches are performed within the Land Information System (LIS), a high performance land surface model processing and data assimilation system developed within the Hydrological Sciences Branch at NASA's Goddard Space Flight Center. LIS provides the capabilities to quantify uncertainty from model inputs and calculate probabilistic estimates for slope failures. Results indicate that remote sensing data can provide many of the spatiotemporal requirements for accurate landslide monitoring and early warning; however, higher resolution precipitation inputs will help to better identify small-scale precipitation forcings that contribute to significant landslide triggering. Future missions, such as the Global Precipitation Measurement (GPM) mission will provide more frequent and extensive estimates of precipitation at the global scale, which will serve as key inputs to significantly advance the accuracy of landslide hazard assessment, particularly over larger spatial scales.

Kirschbaum, Dalia↗

NASA NTRS2012

Global Distribution of Extreme Precipitation and High-Impact Landslides in 2010 Relative to Previous Years

It is well known that extreme or prolonged rainfall is the dominant trigger of landslides worldwide. While research has evaluated the spatiotemporal distribution of extreme rainfall and landslides at local or regional scales using in situ data, few studies have mapped rainfall-triggered landslide distribution globally due to the dearth of landslide data and consistent precipitation information. This study uses a newly developed Global Landslide Catalog (GLC) and a 13-year satellite-based precipitation record from TRMM data. For the first time, these two unique products provide the foundation to quantitatively evaluate the co-occurrence of precipitation and landslides globally. Evaluation of the GLC indicates that 2010 had a large number of high-impact landslide events relative to previous years. This study considers how variations in extreme and prolonged satellite-based rainfall are related to the distribution of landslides over the same time scales for three active landslide areas: Central America, the Himalayan Arc, and central-eastern China. Several test statistics confirm that TRMM rainfall generally scales with the observed increase in landslide reports and fatal events for 2010 and previous years over each region. These findings suggest that the co-occurrence of satellite precipitation and landslide reports may serve as a valuable indicator for characterizing the spatiotemporal distribution of landslide-prone areas in order to establish a global rainfall-triggered landslide climatology. This study characterizes the variability of satellite precipitation data and reported landslide activity at the globally scale in order to improve landslide cataloging, forecasting and quantify potential triggering sources at daily, monthly and yearly time scales.

Kirschbaum, Dalia↗