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DOE OSTI2024

Coincidence anomaly detection for unsupervised locating of edge localized modes in the DIII-D tokamak dataset

Using supervised learning to train a machine learning model to predict an on-coming edge localized mode (ELM) requires a large number of labeled samples. Creating an appropriate data set from the very large database of discharges at a long-running tokamak, such as DIII-D, would be a very time-consuming process for a human. Considering this need and difficulty, we use coincidence anomaly detection, an unsupervised learning technique, to train an ELM-identifier to identify and label ELMs in the DIII-D discharge database. This ELM-identifier shows, simultaneously, a precision of 0.68 and a recall of 0.63 (AUC is 0.73) on identifying ELMs in example time series pulled from thousands of discharges spanning five years. In a test set of 50 discharges, the algorithm finds over 26 thousand ELM candidates, more than 5 times the existing catalog of ELMs labeled by humans.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

DOE OSTI2022

Towards fast and accurate predictions of radio frequency power deposition and current profile via data-driven modelling: applications to lower hybrid current drive

Three machine learning techniques (multilayer perceptron, random forest and Gaussian process) provide fast surrogate models for lower hybrid current drive (LHCD) simulations. A single GENRAY/CQL3D simulation without radial diffusion of fast electrons requires several minutes of wall-clock time to complete, which is acceptable for many purposes, but too slow for integrated modelling and real-time control applications. The machine learning models use a database of more than 16 000 GENRAY/CQL3D simulations for training, validation and testing. Latin hypercube sampling methods ensure that the database covers the range of nine input parameters ( $n_{e0}$ , $T_{e0}$ , $I_p$ , $B_t$ , $R_0$ , $n_{\|}$ , $Z_{{\rm eff}}$ , $V_{{\rm loop}}$ and $P_{{\rm LHCD}}$ ) with sufficient density in all regions of parameter space. The surrogate models reduce the inference time from minutes to $\sim$ ms with high accuracy across the input parameter space.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

DOE OSTI2025

Active Learning Surrogates for Integrating Electron Microscopy and Computational Insights from Simulations in Autonomous Experiments

Artificial Intelligence (AI) combined with simulations and experiments has great potential to accelerate scientific discovery across technology and pharmaceuticals. However, the gap between simulations and experiments is challenging due to disparities in time and scale, making it difficult to estimate properties like energy and electronic states from experiments, and to provide feedback based on theoretical insights.Our research addresses the challenge by developing unique deep kernel based surrogate models that learns from microscopic images, mapping structural features to energy differences from defect formation. We start with full-training using simulated images to determine optimal settings, establishing a baseline for active learning. Using these settings from the baseline, active learning is trained, and predicts structures along simulation trajectories based on uncertainty and energetic stability, thus reducing data requirements, simulation time and computational costs. The results demonstrate that the model achieves a low average error margin of approximately 0.03 meV, indicating good performance. To enhance feature extraction and reconstruction capabilities, we developed an autoencoder-decoder as additional surrogate to create latent space to capture essential features, enabling precise comparisons between simulations and experiments. The results from this model achieved a reconstruction loss of around 0.2 and accurately reconstructed molecular structures.Overall, this work advances the steering of experiments through computational simulations by employing a surrogate models that actively predicts the trajectories of structural evolution, achieving time-to-solution comparable to experimental measurements.

Saranathan, Gayathri [Hewlett-Packard]↗

DOE OSTI2023

Using a physics-informed neural network and fault zone acoustic monitoring to predict lab earthquakes

Abstract Predicting failure in solids has broad applications including earthquake prediction which remains an unattainable goal. However, recent machine learning work shows that laboratory earthquakes can be predicted using micro-failure events and temporal evolution of fault zone elastic properties. Remarkably, these results come from purely data-driven models trained with large datasets. Such data are equivalent to centuries of fault motion rendering application to tectonic faulting unclear. In addition, the underlying physics of such predictions is poorly understood. Here, we address scalability using a novel Physics-Informed Neural Network (PINN). Our model encodes fault physics in the deep learning loss function using time-lapse ultrasonic data. PINN models outperform data-driven models and significantly improve transfer learning for small training datasets and conditions outside those used in training. Our work suggests that PINN offers a promising path for machine learning-based failure prediction and, ultimately for improving our understanding of earthquake physics and prediction.

42 ENGINEERING↗

DOE OSTI2024

Mixed Delay/Nondelay Embeddings Based Neuromorphic Computing with Patterned Nanomagnet Arrays

Patterned nanomagnet arrays (PNAs) have been shown to exhibit a strong geometrically frustrated dipole interaction. Some PNAs have also shown emergent domain wall dynamics. Previous works have demonstrated methods to physically probe these magnetization dynamics of PNAs to realize neuromorphic reservoir systems that exhibit chaotic dynamical behavior and high-dimensional nonlinearity. These PNA reservoir systems from prior works leverage echo state properties and linear/nonlinear short-term memory of component reservoir nodes to map and preserve the dynamical information of the input time-series data into nondelay spatial embeddings. Such mappings enable these PNA reservoir systems to imitate and predict/forecast the input time series data. However, these prior PNA reservoir systems are based solely on the nondelay spatial embeddings obtained at component reservoir nodes. As a result, they require a massive number of component reservoir nodes, or a very large spatial embedding (i.e., high-dimensional spatial embedding) per reservoir node, or both, to achieve acceptable imitation and prediction accuracy. These requirements reduce the practical feasibility of such PNA reservoir systems. To address this shortcoming, we present a mixed delay/nondelay embeddings-based PNA reservoir system. Our system uses a single PNA reservoir node with the ability to obtain a mixture of delay/nondelay embeddings of the dynamical information of the time-series data applied at the input of a single PNA reservoir node. Our analysis shows that when these mixed delay/nondelay embeddings are used to train a perceptron at the output layer, our reservoir system outperforms existing PNA-based reservoir systems for the imitation of NARMA 2, NARMA 5, NARMA 7, and NARMA 10 time series data, and for the short-term and long-term prediction of the Mackey Glass time series data.

Ti, Changpeng↗

DOE OSTI2022

Evidence for long-term potentiation in phospholipid membranes

Biological supramolecular assemblies, such as phospholipid bilayer membranes, have been used to demonstrate signal processing via short-term synaptic plasticity (STP) in the form of paired pulse facilitation and depression, emulating the brain’s efficiency and flexible cognitive capabilities. However, STP memory in lipid bilayers is volatile and cannot be stored or accessed over relevant periods of time, a key requirement for learning. Using droplet interface bilayers (DIBs) composed of lipids, water and hexadecane, and an electrical stimulation training protocol featuring repetitive sinusoidal voltage cycling, we show that DIBs displaying memcapacitive properties can also exhibit persistent synaptic plasticity in the form of long-term potentiation (LTP) associated with capacitive energy storage in the phospholipid bilayer. The time scales for the physical changes associated with the LTP range between minutes and hours, and are substantially longer than previous STP studies, where stored energy dissipated after only a few seconds. STP behavior is the result of reversible changes in bilayer area and thickness. On the other hand, LTP is the result of additional molecular and structural changes to the zwitterionic lipid headgroups and the dielectric properties of the lipid bilayer that result from the buildup of an increasingly asymmetric charge distribution at the bilayer interfaces.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2020

Leveraging Machine Learning Capabilities for the Characterization of Irradiated Uranium: A Case Study of Analysis Methods for Nuclear Safeguards and Nuclear Forensics

Nondestructively determining the initial enrichment of irradiated uranium is a complex and laborious multivariable problem due to the presence of fission products. This work demonstrates the capabilities of machine learning to analyze gamma-ray spectral data to determine initial enrichment without knowledge of the decay time of the sample. The approach developed is agnostic to the particular scenario and is applicable to a wide variety of applications in nuclear forensics and nuclear safeguards. We irradiated 5 mg uranium standard reference materials at discrete enrichment values ranging from 0.02% to 97% 235 U (weight percent) in UT Austin’s Nuclear Engineering Teaching Laboratory TRIGA Mark II 1.1 MW research reactor, allowed each to decay for 8 hours, and then measured each sample via gamma-ray spectrometry for 50 hours post-irradiation yielding 1,400 individual gamma-ray spectra discretized into 8,192 energy bins. We then trained decision trees models to analyze individual gamma-ray spectra and estimate the associated initial enrichment without knowledge of the time since end of irradiation. We evaluated the performance of the models with a reserved test set not used for training or calibrating the model. A decision tree model constructed with this procedure achieved a mean absolute error in initial enrichment determination of 2.3% (weight percent 235 U). Next, we implemented a principal component analysis pre-processing routine of the gamma-ray spectrometry data to reduce the dimensionality of the dataset from 8,192 channels in the spectrum to 10 principal components while retaining over 99% of the inherent variance in the data. Decision tree models constructed with these data demonstrated decreased mean absolute error in enrichment determination, reduced computational time, and decreased complexity. A single decision tree model constructed with this procedure achieved a mean absolute error in initial enrichment determination of 0.05% (weight percent 235 U). Furthermore, we analyzed these models with learning curves to ensure that overfitting did not occur. The capabilities provided by these models can be naturally extended to other application-focused measurements in the fields of nuclear safeguards, nuclear forensics, and nuclear non-proliferation.

Drescher, Adam↗

DOE OSTI2023

Efficient Probabilistic Prediction and Uncertainty Quantification of Tropical Cyclone–Driven Storm Tides and Inundation

Abstract This study proposes and assesses a methodology to obtain high-quality probabilistic predictions and uncertainty information of near-landfall tropical cyclone–driven (TC-driven) storm tide and inundation with limited time and resources. Forecasts of TC track, intensity, and size are perturbed according to quasi-random Korobov sequences of historical forecast errors with assumed Gaussian and uniform statistical distributions. These perturbations are run in an ensemble of hydrodynamic storm tide model simulations. The resulting set of maximum water surface elevations are dimensionality reduced using Karhunen–Loève expansions and then used as a training set to develop a polynomial chaos (PC) surrogate model from which global sensitivities and probabilistic predictions can be extracted. The maximum water surface elevation is extrapolated over dry points incorporating energy head loss with distance to properly train the surrogate for predicting inundation. We find that the surrogate constructed with third-order PCs using elastic net penalized regression with leave-one-out cross validation provides the most robust fit across training and test sets. Probabilistic predictions of maximum water surface elevation and inundation area by the surrogate model at 48-h lead time for three past U.S. landfalling hurricanes (Irma in 2017, Florence in 2018, and Laura in 2020) are found to be reliable when compared to best track hindcast simulation results, even when trained with as few as 19 samples. The maximum water surface elevation is most sensitive to perpendicular track-offset errors for all three storms. Laura is also highly sensitive to storm size and has the least reliable prediction. Significance Statement The purpose of this study is to develop and evaluate a methodology that can be used to provide high-quality probabilistic predictions of hurricane-induced storm tide and inundation with limited time and resources. This is important for emergency management purposes during or after the landfall of hurricanes. Our results show that sampling forecast errors using quasi-random sequences combined with machine learning techniques that fit polynomial functions to the data are well suited to this task. The polynomial functions also have the benefit of producing exact sensitivity indices of storm tide and inundation to the forecasted hurricane properties such as path, intensity, and size, which can be used for uncertainty estimation. The code implementing the presented methodology is publicly available on GitHub.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2023

Temporal Subsampling Diminishes Small Spatial Scales in Recurrent Neural Network Emulators of Geophysical Turbulence

The immense computational cost of traditional numerical weather and climate models has sparked the development of machine learning (ML) based emulators. Because ML methods benefit from long records of training data, it is common to use data sets that are temporally subsampled relative to the time steps required for the numerical integration of differential equations. Here, we investigate how this often overlooked processing step affects the quality of an emulator's predictions. We implement two ML architectures from a class of methods called reservoir computing: (a) a form of Nonlinear Vector Autoregression (NVAR), and (b) an Echo State Network (ESN). Despite their simplicity, it is well documented that these architectures excel at predicting low dimensional chaotic dynamics. We are therefore motivated to test these architectures in an idealized setting of predicting high dimensional geophysical turbulence as represented by Surface Quasi-Geostrophic dynamics. In all cases, subsampling the training data consistently leads to an increased bias at small spatial scales that resembles numerical diffusion. Interestingly, the NVAR architecture becomes unstable when the temporal resolution is increased, indicating that the polynomial based interactions are insufficient at capturing the detailed nonlinearities of the turbulent flow. The ESN architecture is found to be more robust, suggesting a benefit to the more expensive but more general structure. Spectral errors are reduced by including a penalty on the kinetic energy density spectrum during training, although the subsampling related errors persist. Future work is warranted to understand how the temporal resolution of training data affects other ML architectures.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2021

Development of a deep learning based automated data analysis for step-filter x-ray spectrometers in support of high-repetition rate short-pulse laser-driven acceleration experiments

We present a deep learning based framework for real-time analysis of a differential filter based x-ray spectrometer that is common on short-pulse laser experiments. The analysis framework was trained with a large repository of synthetic data to retrieve key experimental metrics, such as slope temperature. With traditional analysis methods, these quantities would have to be extracted from data using a time-intensive and manual analysis. Furthermore, this framework was developed for a specific diagnostic, but may be applicable to a wide variety of diagnostics common to laser experiments and thus will be especially crucial to the development of high-repetition rate (HRR) diagnostics for HRR laser systems that are coming online.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

DOE OSTI2022

Computational Workflow for Accelerated Molecular Design Using Quantum Chemical Simulations and Deep Learning Models

Efficient methods for searching the chemical space of molecular compounds are needed to automate and accelerate the design of new functional molecules such as pharmaceuticals. Given the high cost in both resources and time for experimental efforts, computational approaches play a key role in guiding the selection of promising molecules for further investigation. Here, we construct a workflow to accelerate design by combining approximate quantum chemical methods [i.e. density-functional tight-binding (DFTB)], a graph convolutional neural network (GCNN) surrogate model for chemical property prediction, and a masked language model (MLM) for molecule generation. Property data from the DFTB calculations are used to train the surrogate model; the surrogate model is used to score candidates generated by the MLM. The surrogate reduces computation time by orders of magnitude compared to the DFTB calculations, enabling an increased search of chemical space. Furthermore, the MLM generates a diverse set of chemical modifications based on pre-training from a large compound library. We utilize the workflow to search for near-infrared photoactive molecules by minimizing the predicted HOMO-LUMO gap as the target property. Our results show that the workflow can generate optimized molecules outside of the original training set, which suggests that iterations of the workflow could be useful for searching vast chemical spaces in a wide range of design problems.

Blanchard, Andrew↗

DOE OSTI2020

Computer-aided classification of suspicious pigmented lesions using wide-field images

Early identification of melanoma is conducted through whole-body visual examinations to detect suspicious pigmented lesions, a situation that fluctuates in accuracy depending on the experience and time of the examiner. Computer-aided diagnosis tools for skin lesions are typically trained using pre-selected single-lesion images, taken under controlled conditions, which limits their use in wide-field scenes. Here, we propose a computer-aided classifier system with such input conditions to aid in the rapid identification of suspicious pigmented lesions at the primary care level. 133 patients with a multitude of skin lesions were recruited for this study. All lesions were examined by a board-certified dermatologist and classified into “suspicious” and “non-suspicious”. A new clinical database was acquired and created by taking Wide-Field images of all major body parts with a consumer-grade camera under natural illumination condition and with a consistent source of image variability. 3–8 images were acquired per patient on different sites of the body, and a total of 1759 pigmented lesions were extracted. A machine learning classifier was optimized and build into a computer aided classification system to binary classify each lesion using a suspiciousness score. In a testing set, our computer-aided classification system achieved a sensitivity of 100% for suspicious pigmented lesions that were later confirmed by dermoscopy examination (“SPL_A”) and 83.2% for suspicious pigmented lesions that were not confirmed after examination (“SPL_B”). Sensitivity for non-suspicious lesions was 72.1%, and accuracy was 75.9%. With these results we defined a suspiciousness score that is aligned with common macro-screening (naked eye) practices. This work demonstrates that wide-field photography combined with computer-aided classification systems can distinguish suspicious from non-suspicious pigmented lesions, and might be effective to assess the severity of a suspicious pigmented lesions. We believe this approach could be useful to support skin screenings at a population-level.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2024

Learning model combining convolutional deep neural network with a self-attention mechanism for AC optimal power flow

Alternating current optimal power flow (OPF) analysis is critical for efficient and reliable operation of power systems. For large systems or repetitive computations, the traditional methods such as the direct and gradient methods, or non-traditional methods, such as the genetic algorithm and simulating annealing, are time-consuming and unsuitable for real-time computing. The work in this paper proposes a novel framework to obtain the optimal solution of power flow in real-time using a combination of convolutional neural networks and a self-attention mechanism. All parameters of the power networks are rearranged in an image-like shape of a multi-channel image where each channel is a two-dimensional matrix. The proposed approach is adaptive with every input size of power systems as well as frequent variations of network topologies without intervention to the framework core. The encompassment of all power system contexts in which all parameters of internal elements, generation costs, and topology information are included, contributes to the higher accuracy of inference compared to other current machine-learning-based OPF-solving methods. Besides, the proposed framework established on ubiquitous platforms is effortlessly integrated into current infrastructures of power systems, and the great efficiency along with the computation speed may serve as a critical point for practical implications, such as enabling faster decision-making during real-time operations, predicting system contingencies, and remedial actions based on an offline pre-trained model. Furthermore, this supervised learning process is applied to the dataset of four case studies of meshed power systems: the IEEE 5-bus system (IEEE-5), the IEEE 30-bus system (IEEE-30), the IEEE 39-bus system (IEEE-39), and the IEEE 57-bus system (IEEE-57) to prove the efficacy of the proposed method.

42 ENGINEERING↗

DOE OSTI2023

A pulsed current-mode class-D low-voltage high-bandwidth power amplifier for portable NMR systems

Low-field NMR has seen growing interest in recent years, especially for portable applications. The lower homogeneity magnets used for portable applications require short RF pulses to ensure enough transmit bandwidth to excite the sample volume and also support short echo periods. Furthermore, the preferred use of a high-Q coil to improve signal-to-noise ratio (SNR) prolongs the pulse transients. Thus, at such low Larmor frequencies, the excitation pulse transients become comparable or longer than the pulse length, such that the transmit bandwidth begins to limit measurement SNR. This paper describes the design of a pulsed current-mode class-D power (PCMCD) transmitter that addresses this issue by generating high power in a tuned sample coil while maintaining short transients, thus resulting in high output bandwidth. The transmitter also uses a charge recycling mechanism to maximize power efficiency for RF train excitation, which also results in faster pulse repetition rate and reduces allowable echo time. In this work, experimental results from a small form-factor PCMCD transmitter are presented. This design generates a peak RF power of 240 W into a 9.16 µH coil at 4 MHz while operating off a single 12 V power supply. NMR measurement results using the transmitter are also described, showing minimum achievable echo time of 70 µs and 25 µs depending on the transmitter mode of operation.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗

DOE OSTI2024

Dedicated beam position monitor pair for model-independent lattice characterization at NSLS-II

This paper reports recent lattice characterization results obtained at the National Synchrotron Light Source II (NSLS-II) storage ring, conducted without reliance on a lattice model. A pair of beam position monitors (BPMs) with bunch-by-bunch (B$\times$B) resolution, were recently installed in a section of the storage ring free of magnetic fields. The new BPM pair measured the beam, or bunch’s transverse Poincaré map precisely after the beam was excited. Linear one-turn-matrices (OTM) were then derived, and from these, the 4-dimensional coupled Twiss parameters were extracted at the locations of the BPM pair. By normalizing beam oscillation amplitudes with the Twiss parameters, the global action-variables were obtained. Additionally, these action-variables facilitated the measurement of the local Twiss parameters observed by other BPMs independent on lattice model. This method is general, and particularly useful in certain scenarios such as a round beam mode in a diffraction-limited light source ring. We applied it to assess both weakly and strongly coupled lattices at the NSLS-II ring. Through analysis of the strongly coupled lattice, the quadrupole tilt errors were estimated to be less than 400 μrad. Utilizing the BPMs’ B$\times$B resolution, for the first time we observed the variations of the linear lattice along a long bunch-train.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2021

Using Neural Network Force Fields to Ascertain the Quality of Ab Initio Simulations of Liquid Water

Accurately simulating the properties of bulk water, despite the apparent simplicity of the molecule, is still a challenge. In order to fully understand and reproduce its complex phase diagram, it is necessary to perform simulations at the ab initio level, including quantum mechanical effects both for electrons and nuclei. This comes at a high computational cost, given that the structural and dynamical properties tend to require long timescales and large simulation cells. In this work, we evaluate the errors that density functional theory (DFT)-based simulations routinely incur into due time- and size-scale limitations. These errors are evaluated using neural-network-trained force fields that are accurate at the level of DFT methods. We compare different exchange and correlation potentials for properties of bulk water that require large timescales. Here we show that structural properties are less dependent on the system size and that dynamical properties such as the diffusion coefficient have a strong dependence on the simulation size and timescale. Our results facilitate comparisons of DFT-based simulation results with experiments and offer a path to discriminate between model and convergence errors in these simulations.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

DOE OSTI2026

Bayesian Optimization of Catalysis with In-Context Learning

Large language models (LLMs) can perform accurate classification with zero or few examples through in-context learning (ICL), allowing the model to observe query-relevant examples at inference time and eliminating the need for additional weight updates to generalize beyond its original training data. We extend this capability to regression with uncertainty estimation using frozen LLMs (e.g., GPT-4o, Gemini), enabling Bayesian optimization (BO) in natural language without explicit model training or feature engineering. We apply this to materials discovery by representing materials as synthesis and testing procedures for use in natural language prompts. This Bayesian, design-first approach prioritizes optimization toward target material properties before detailed characterization, in contrast to conventional experimental workflows that often emphasize characterization of suboptimal materials. On benchmarks like aqueous solubility and oxidative coupling of methane (OCM), BO-ICL matches or outperforms Gaussian processes. In live experiments on the reverse water–gas shift (RWGS) reaction, BO-ICL identifies multimetallic catalysts that approach equilibrium CO yield within 6 and 10 iterations from a pool of 3,700 and 360,000 candidates, respectively. Our method redefines materials representation and accelerates discovery, with broad applications across catalysis, materials science, and AI.

Calibration↗

DOE OSTI2026

Short‐Term Hourly Weather Forecasting Using PredRNN With Image Preprocessing

Global weather forecast models are vital tools with numerous applications, including public safety, agriculture, and transportation. Recent advancements in artificial intelligence (AI) and deep learning (DL) have shown the potential to enhance weather forecasting accuracy and speed. In this study, we developed a short-term hourly weather forecast framework with a wavelet transform function for data preprocessing and a spatiotemporal DL model, PredRNN, for predicting five surface atmospheric variables, including wind speed and direction, mean sea level pressure (MSLP), temperature, and precipitation. The framework demonstrated promising results. It produces global forecasts at 0.25° (∼25 km) with a 1-day lead time RMSE of 1.8 m/s for wind components, 180 Pa for MSLP, and 1.8 K for temperature. Although our model does not surpass state-of-the-art AI weather forecast models across all metrics, it outperforms these models in precipitation forecasting and wind prediction at short lead times and achieves comparable accuracy for MSLP. Its native hourly forecasting capability, together with training on widely accessible GPU hardware, contributes meaningfully to the advancement of accessible DL weather forecasting methods. Our work highlights the importance of integrating temporal components and data transformation techniques to improve the predictability and accuracy of weather forecasts.

Tran, Hoang [Pacific Northwest National Laboratory↗