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LS3MIP (v1.0) Contribution to CMIP6: The Land Surface, Snow and Soil Moisture Model Intercomparison Project Aims, Setup and Expected Outcome.

The Land Surface, Snow and Soil Moisture Model Intercomparison Project (LS3MIP) is designed to provide a comprehensive assessment of land surface, snow, and soil moisture feedbacks on climate variability and climate change, and to diagnose systematic biases in the land modules of current Earth System Models (ESMs). The solid and liquid water stored at the land surface has a large influence on the regional climate, its variability and predictability, including effects on the energy, water and carbon cycles. Notably, snow and soil moisture affect surface radiation and flux partitioning properties, moisture storage and land surface memory. They both strongly affect atmospheric conditions, in particular surface air temperature and precipitation, but also large-scale circulation patterns. However, models show divergent responses and representations of these feedbacks as well as systematic biases in the underlying processes. LS3MIP will provide the means to quantify the associated uncertainties and better constrain climate change projections, which is of particular interest for highly vulnerable regions (densely populated areas, agricultural regions, the Arctic, semi-arid and other sensitive terrestrial ecosystems).The experiments are subdivided in two components, the first addressing systematic land biases in offline mode (LMIP, building upon the 3rd phase of Global Soil Wetness Project; GSWP3) and the second addressing land feedbacks attributed to soil moisture and snow in an integrated framework (LFMIP, building upon the GLACE-CMIP blueprint).

atmospheric temperature↗

Using Climate Regionalization to Understand Climate Forecast System Version 2 (CFSv2) Precipitation Performance for the Conterminous United States (CONUS)

Dynamically based seasonal forecasts are prone to systematic spatial biases due to imperfections in the underlying global climate model (GCM). This can result in low-forecast skill when the GCM misplaces teleconnections or fails to resolve geographic barriers, even if the prediction of large-scale dynamics is accurate. To characterize and address this issue, this study applies objective climate regionalization to identify discrepancies between the Climate Forecast SystemVersion 2 (CFSv2) and precipitation observations across the Contiguous United States (CONUS). Regionalization shows that CFSv2 1 month forecasts capture the general spatial character of warm season precipitation variability but that forecast regions systematically differ from observation in some transition zones. CFSv2 predictive skill for these misclassified areas is systematically reduced relative to correctly regionalized areas and CONUS as a whole. In these incorrectly regionalized areas, higher skill can be obtained by using a regional-scale forecast in place of the local grid cell prediction.

geographic barriers↗

Time Series Analysis in the Search for Other Worlds Through Transit Photometry

The Kepler Mission launched in June 2009 to commence NASA's first mission to search for potentially habitable, Earth-size planets orbiting Sun-like stars. Kepler discovered explanets via the transit method: searching for minute (100 ppm) drops in brightness lasting 1 - 13 hours corresponding to occasions where the planet crosses the face of its host star from Kepler's point of view. The exquisite precision required to carry out the Kepler mission (20 ppm in 6.5 hours) pushed astronomical time series analysis to the limits, and motivated the development of novel algorithmic approaches. Transit signatures of rocky planets are often dwarfed by the intrinsic stellar variability, which is not white noise, and often is non-stationary, and by instrumental systematic effects, which can include transients and electronic artifacts. Surmounting this challenging regime of weak, temporally compact, periodic signals in observation noise with strong systematics and other sources of variability motivated the development of 1) an overcomplete, non-decimated, wavelet-based matched filter to jointly estimate the properties of the non-stationary, non-white observation noise process, and 2) a multi-scale, maximum a posteriori (msMAP) approach to identifying and removing instrumental systematic effects. After over nine years of observations, the Kepler spacecraft finally ran out of fuel in November 2018, ending its data collection activities. Over 2300 planets were discovered by Kepler in its primary mission, and over 355 have been discovered by K2, the repurposed mission that followed Kepler's primary mission after the loss of a second reaction wheel in May 2013. We have ported the Kepler science pipeline for the Transiting Exoplanet Survey Satellite (TESS) Mission, which began science observations in July 2019, and report initial results and performance of the modified science pipeline.The Kepler and TESS Missions are supported by NASA's Science Mission Directorate.

transit surveys↗

In-Flight Calibration of Hitomi Soft X-Ray Spectrometer (3) Effective Area

We present the result of the in-flight calibration of the effective area of the Soft X-ray Spectrometer (SXS) on board the Hitomi X-ray satellite using an observation of the Crab nebula. We corrected for artifacts when observing high count rate sources with the X-ray microcalorimeter. We then constructed a spectrum in the 0.5–20 keV band, which we modeled with a single power-law continuum attenuated by interstellar extinction. We evaluated the systematic uncertainty of the spectral parameters by various calibration items. In the 2–12 keV band, the SXS result is consistent with the literature values in flux (2.20 ± 0.08 × 10(exp −8) erg s(exp-1) cm(exp −2) with a 1 σ statistical uncertainty) but is softer in the power-law index (2.19 ± 0.11). The discrepancy is attributable to the systematic uncertainty of about +6%/−7% and +2%/−5% respectively for the flux and the power-law index. The softer spectrum is affected primarily by the systematic uncertainty of the Dewar gate valve transmission and the event screening.

Tsujimoto, Masahiro↗

Impact of Bias in the Marine Air Temperature Observation Set on Atmospheric Reanalyses

Marine air temperature observations are collected by volunteer observing ships carrying automatic meteorological sensor packages. Close proximity of the package mount to a dark colored ship's deck is known to introduce a warm bias on sunny afternoons in summer under low wind conditions. This observation set is used as an influential constraint in the MERRA-2 reanalysis, as well as several other reanalyses, in the poorly sampled surface marine boundary layer. Here we explore the consequences of bias in the marine air temperature observation set during the 36 year period 1980-2015. Marine air temperature observations have mainly been collected along major shipping routes, with the densest coverage in the North Atlantic and North Pacific. In the first part of this presentation we review the historical observation coverage and compare air temperature and contemporaneous SST measurements to identify systematic differences. The comparison suggests the presence of diurnal bias in the air temperature observations peaking in subtropics and midlatitudes latitudes in mid-afternoon local time. In the second part we explore the impact of the marine air temperature observations on MERRA-2 through analysis of the terms in the temperature forecast tendency equation, the equation which describes the contributions to changes in temperature during each analysis cycle. Examination of the temperature forecast tendency equation allows us to separate systematic errors due to such processes and radiation, mixing, and advection and allows us to identify the major source of systematic forecast tendencies. The results show that the marine air temperature measurements introduce an error that can reach 0.4K/dy which also peaks in local afternoon at subtropical latitudes. This bias varies with season and has gradually reduced from the beginning of the MERRA-2 reanalysis in 1980. In the final part we conduct numerical experiments with a version of the MERRA-2 analysis system, comparing experiments when the marine air temperature observations are included or withheld from the analysis system.

Akella, Santharam↗

TPSAS-NF1676L-17931-DND

Many geophysical variables including temperature, clouds, and precipitation exhibit robust diurnal cycles in response to the daily cycle of solar insolation. Due to the fundamental nature of this variability, it is critical that weather and climate models accurately represent the diurnal cycle. Numerical model, however, have difficulty reproducing this observed diurnal cycle behavior, which leads to systematic errors in model representation of earth energy budget terms: including TOA and surface radiation, precipitation, and surface latent and sensible heat fluxes. This study evaluates the regional diurnal cycle in the Tropics within reanalysis models (ERA-Interim and MERRA) and quantifies systematic errors in the simulated TOA flux and precipitation due to biases in the diurnal cycle representation. The focus of this study is to quantify the importance of diurnal cycle simulation to systematic bias in reanalysis data set climatologies.

Patrick C Taylor↗

Deciphering Extreme Mineral Records; Microstructural Phase Heritage of Shocked Materials

High-pressure minerals such as coesite, stishovite, and reidite are often used as indicators of shock metamorphism. However, high-pressure and high-temperature phases are metastable at ambient conditions and, therefore, often revert to a more energetically favorable phase. During solid-state transformations, the crystallographic orientations of the stable polymorph are controlled by the transformation pathway from the parent. Microstructural orientation analysis using electron backscatter diffraction (EBSD) of the stable phase can reveal systematic intercrystalline orientation relationships (OR) diagnostic of solid-state transformations from these high-pressure or high-temperature polymorph phases (Cayron et al., 2006). Knowledge of polymorph stability fields for a given system can thus be used to infer minimum shock P and/or T conditions that rocks have experienced, which are otherwise unavailable using traditional thermobarometers such as element partition coefficients. Using orientation relationships to infer the former presence of mineral phases has been termed microstructural “phase heritage”, and has successfully been used to probe for evidence of extreme pressures and temperatures resulting from hypervelocity impacts. The reconstruction of polymorphs of ZrSiO4 (zircon, reidite) and ZrO2 (baddeleyite) have further elucidated the behavior of these phases under hypervelocity impact conditions (Timms et al., 2017a; White et al., 2018), and OR analysis of shocked monazite has identified a previously unrecognized tetragonal high-P polymorph (Erickson et al., 2019). Zircon will convert to the low tetragonal polymorph reidite at shock stresses above ~21 GPa. However, upon decompression at temperatures above 1200 °C reidite will revert to zircon (Kusaba et al., 1985). Recrystallized zircon neoblasts encased in impact melt often show systematic misorientation relationships of 90° about <110> indicative of reversion from the reidite (Fig. 1), and preserving cryptic evidence of the high-P history that is often erased by the post shock thermal spike (Cavosie et al., 2016). Microstructural OR analysis of a dissociated zircon corona composed of baddeleyite (monoclinic-ZrO2) has identified the former presence of cubic zirconia within impact melt glass from the Mistastin Lake impact structure, Labrador, CA. Based on stability fields in the ZrO2-SiO2 binary phase diagram, cubic zirconia records thermal conditions in excess of 2370 °C at ambient P, indicating that the Mistastin impact melt is the hottest rock identified on Earth’s surface (Timms et al., 2017b). Shock-deformed monazite (monoclinic La,Ce,ThPO4) containing lamellae comprised of interlocking laths has been identified from the Haughton Dome impact structure, Nunavut, Canada and Nördlinger-Ries Crater, southern Germany. The lath-structured lamellae are composed of four systematic orientation variants, which OR analyses indicate originate from a tetragonal parent whereby the [010]monoclinic aligns with either [100] or [010]tetragonal (Erickson et al., 2019). These results highlight utility of microstructural phase heritage analyses for the identification of unstable high-P or high-T polymorphs that uniquely record the extremely transient shock conditions produced by hypervelocity impacts.

Timmons Erickson↗

The Salinity Pilot-Mission Exploitation Platform (Pi-MEP): A Hub for Validation and Exploitation of Satellite Sea Surface Salinity Data

The Pilot-Mission Exploitation Platform (Pi-MEP) for salinity is an ESA initiative originally meant to support and widen the uptake of Soil Moisture and Ocean Salinity (SMOS) mission data over the ocean. Starting in 2017, the project aims at setting up a computational web-based platform focusing on satellite sea surface salinity data, supporting studies on enhanced validation and scientific process over the ocean. It has been designed in close collaboration with a dedicated science advisory group in order to achieve three main objectives: gathering all the data required to exploit satellite sea surface salinity data, systematically producing a wide range of metrics for comparing and monitoring sea surface salinity products’ quality, and providing user-friendly tools to explore, visualize and exploit both the collected products and the results of the automated analyses. The Salinity Pi-MEP is becoming a reference hub for the validation of satellite sea surface salinity missions by providing valuable information on satellite products (SMOS, Aquarius, SMAP), an extensive in situ database (e.g., Argo, thermosalinographs, moorings, drifters) and additional thematic datasets (precipitation, evaporation, currents, sea level anomalies, sea surface temperature, etc.). Co-localized databases between satellite products and in situ datasets are systematically generated together with validation analysis reports for 30 predefined regions. The data and reports are made fully accessible through the web interface of the platform. The datasets, validation metrics and tools (automatic, user-driven) of the platform are described in detail in this paper. Several dedicated scientific case studies involving satellite SSS data are also systematically monitored by the platform, including major river plumes, mesoscale signatures in boundary currents, high latitudes, semi-enclosed seas, and the high-precipitation region of the eastern tropical Pacific. Since 2019, a partnership in the Salinity Pi-MEP project has been agreed between ESA and NASA to enlarge focus to encompass the entire set of satellite salinity sensors. The two agencies are now working together to widen the platform features on several technical aspects, such as triple-collocation software implementation, additional match-up collocation criteria and sustained exploitation of data from the SPURS campaigns

ocean↗

EVA Swab Kit: Tools and Techniques for Collecting Aseptic Samples from Crewed Space Missions

Introduction: When we send humans to search for life on other planets, we'll need to know what we brought with us versus what may already be there. To ensure our crewed spacecraft meet planetary protection requirements—and to protect our science from human contamination—we'll need to assess and verify whether micro-organisms may be leaking/venting from our spacesuits. This requires collecting samples under Extravehicular Activity (EVA) conditions. Detailed, systematic research on forward contamination from robotic spacecraft has been steadily progressing since the Viking missions, but systematic studies of contamination from space suits has not been conducted in many years. The modern EMU (Extravehicular Mobility Unit) suit used by NASA is designed to leak at rates as high as 100 cc/min. Before humans land on Mars there is a critical need to understand the types and quantities of microbes that could be introduced via space suits. The Human Forward Contamination Assessment team at NASA’s Johnson Space Center (JSC) has developed a prototype EVA swab tool [1,2,3,4] designed for use in space to sample cleaned and uncleaned space suits to determine the present day microbial load and eventually the rate of leakage. The ability to assess microbial leakage early in advanced space suit and life support system design cycles will help avoid costly hardware redesign later. Test Objectives: The primary objective of EMU testing was to characterize the type of micro-organisms typically found on or near selected suit pressure joints under suit differential pressure conditions. Most human-borne microbes can fit through a 0.5 to 1.0 µm gap. Knowing which joints are more likely to leak will inform hardware design decisions. Knowing which types of micro-organisms may leak from EVA suits provides a basis for subsequent studies to characterize the viability of those organisms under destination conditions, as well as how far they might spread through natural or human-influenced processes. That data, in turn, will inform exploration mission operations and hardware design. The secondary objective of testing was to evaluate the interface between a fully suited test subject and the EVA swab tool at vacuum. Bulky EVA suits can restrict movement and limit visibility through the helmet visor. Fully suited testing is important for identifying tool design issues prior to flight. At exploration destinations, such as Mars, suited crew may be required to periodically sample their suits as part of an environmental monitoring protocol. Suit Microbial Sampling Results: This report details results of microbial swabs collected from current flight suit configurations worn by crew members assigned to upcoming ISS expedition missions as well as swabs collected from prototype suits intended for use on the Orion spacecraft. These tests were intended to characterize the types of contaminants found on flight suits under current, typical handling conditions. No attempt was made to change suit handling procedures, provide additional sterilization, or to limit typical potential contaminant sources. Using culture based techniques, we cultivated 235 CFU (colony forming units) comprised of 26 bacterial species and one fungal species on the outside of the suits. The fungal species and 14 of the bacterial species were unique to the suit surfaces and were not detected in any of the background samples collected within the chambers. We sequenced 755,434 ribosomal fragments on all of the suit surfaces from swab samples. 557,016 of these sequences represent DNA that survived at least 4 hours at vacuum. These sequences formed 2,464 OTU's (Operational Taxonomic Units, 97% similarity) showing low diversity in the samples. The most abundant sequences that survived vacuum belong to the genera Staphyloccocus, Ralstona, Bacillus and Rhodobacter all of which are common to the human microbiome. [5] See Danko et al., (2021) for more complete details of these first analyses. Further analysis of EVA suit materials with respect to the efficacy of various cleaning protocols and engineered containment solutions is planned to inform suit design for NASA’s Artemis Moon to Mars program crew testing. Swab Tool Function Results: The kit was demonstrated for fit and function in suited subject vacuum tests to determine how well the tool worked as an aseptic microbial sampling device as well as to identify any design elements that could be upgraded for EVA task specific improvement. It was found that sample acquisition efficacy could be enhanced by redesign of the sample canister to end-effector interface. Several modifications of the sample caddy assemblies to optimize EVA safety and functionality were also identified. Consequently, fabrication of the redesigned sample canister to end-effector assembly interfaces and and the sample caddy assemblies are required. Fabrication of sixteen flight sample canister assemblies (8 per each of two EVA Swab Kits) and two sample caddy assemblies are in process to be followed by hardware testing and certification to produce two flight-certified EVA Swab Kits for transport to ISS no earlier than summer of 2022. Sampling Strategy: The International Space Station is an ideal testbed for systematic studies of contamination from crewed vehicles since it has been continuously occupied for 20 years and exposed to non-terrestrial conditions. We will sample the exterior of the ISS during EVA using a purpose-built swab tool capable of maintaining sterility while undergoing temperature changes from -151 to +121°C under hard vacuum. Prior to each EVA, the project team will work with ISS mission managers to identify precise sampling locations, which will vary by EVA based on the translation paths and worksites scheduled for that particular EVA. Ideally, translation path handrails and areas near ECLSS (Environmental Control and Life Support System) external vent openings on a spacecraft would be assessed. There are currently more than a dozen ECLSS external vents on the ISS. Some are connected to systems that vent waste products, while others are intended to equalize cabin pressure. As EVA opportunity allows, microbial samples from any of these external vents would provide a valuable data point, though some will be more useful than others. Four criteria have been identified to help prioritize sampling sites near vents: • EVA Accessibility: To minimize cost, it is desired to piggy-back onto a planned EVA. Therefore, the sampling location must be readily accessible by an EVA crew • Type of Vented Products: Vent products that have been in direct contact with crew, such as cabin air, are more likely to contain microorganisms than vent products associated with isolated systems, such as experiment module combustion products. • Mass of Vented Products: Higher-flow vents are more likely to contain detectible levels of microbial contaminants than lower-flow vents. • Local Environment: Sample locations with relatively benign local conditions, such as warm surfaces shielded from direct ultraviolet (UV) radiation exposure, may be more likely to support microbial growth than locations with harsher local environmental conditions. Because EVA accessibility is the most important criteria, the proposal team worked with an astronaut and flight controllers using the Dynamic Onboard Ubiquitous Graphics (DOUG) tool. The DOUG virtual environment allows an operator to “fly” around the current ISS vehicle configuration to assess EVA translation paths, attach points, and keep-out zones. While analysis on station or rapid return to Earth would be preferable, samples collected from the exterior of the ISS have already been exposed to temperature variations between -157 and +121 °C as well as hard vacuum. Therefore, they should be fairly stable and robust. We hypothesize that samples collected from the ISS exterior could be stored for up to 6 months at -80°C without degradation. Sample canisters will be returned to Earth while frozen at -80°C for analysis, and sterilized canisters can be re-flown back to ISS to support additional sampling opportunities Relevance to NASA Exploration Objectives: These data will allow us to identify new or improved methods, technologies, and procedures for spacecraft sterilization and leakage mitigation to minimize the amount of contamination introduced to the environment by human explorers. This work is funded by NASA research grant: NNH18ZDA001N-PPR References: [1] Bell, M.S. et al. (2015) LPS XLVI, Abst. #1832 [2] Rucker et al. (2018) 42nd COSPAR (PPP.3) [3] Bell, M.S. et al. (2019) Mars Extant Life Conference, Abst. #5096.[4] Bell, M.S. et al., (2020) 43rd COSPAR (BO.2).[5] Danko D, et.al.,(2021)Front.Microbiol.12:608478.

Mary Suzanne Bell↗

Uncertainty Analysis of the NASA Glenn 8- by 6-Foot Supersonic Wind Tunnel 2019 Characterization Test 14-Foot, 5.8 Percent Test Section Porosity

This paper presents methods and results of a measurement uncertainty analysis that was performed for the 8- by 6-foot Supersonic Wind Tunnel located at the NASA Glenn Research Center. The uncertainty analysis is based on data collected during a characterization test following major structural modifications to the facility and upgrades to the facility’s data and control systems. The statistical methods and engineering judgments used to estimate elemental uncertainties are described in this report. The Monte Carlo method of propagating uncertainty was selected to determine the uncertainty of calculated variables of interest. A description of the Monte Carlo method as applied for this analysis is provided. The primary variable of interest (VOI) for this facility is free stream Mach number. In addition to determining the uncertainty in Mach number, the uncertainty in free stream values of static pressure, total pressure, dynamic pressure, total temperature, static temperature, Reynolds number, and air speed were also calculated. Uncertainty results are presented as random (unpredictable variation in repeated measurements), systematic (potential offset between observed and true value), and total (random and systematic combined) uncertainty for Mach number. Systematic uncertainty results are presented for the other VOIs. Individual uncertainty sources are presented both dimensionally and as percent contributions to uncertainty in all VOIs, to aid in the identification of primary uncertainty sources.

Uncertainty Analysis↗

How Well do Multisatellite Products Capture the Space-Time Dynamics of Precipitation? Part II: Building an Error Model Through Spectral System Identification

Satellite precipitation products, as all quantitative estimates, come with some inherent degree of uncertainty. To associate a quantitative value of the uncertainty to each individual estimate, error modeling is necessary. Most of the error models proposed so far compute the uncertainty as a function of precipitation intensity only, and only at one specific spatio-temporal scale. We propose a spectral error model which accounts for the neighboring space-time dynamics of precipitation into the uncertainty quantification. Systematic distortions of the precipitation signal and random errors are characterized distinctively in every frequency-wavenumber band in the Fourier domain, to accurately characterize error across scales. The systematic distortions are represented as a deterministic space-time linear filtering term. The random errors are represented as a non-stationary additive noise. The spectral error model is applied to the IMERG multi satellite precipitation product and its parameters are estimated empirically through a system identification approach using the GV-MRMS gauge-radar measurements as reference (“truth”) over the eastern United States. The filtering term is found to be essentially low-pass. While traditional error models attribute most of the error variance to random errors, it is found here that the systematic filtering term explains 48% of the error variance at the native resolution of IMERG. This fact confirms that, at high resolution, filtering effects in satellite precipitation products cannot be ignored, and that the error cannot be represented as a purely random additive or multiplicative term. An important consequence is that precipitation estimates derived from totally different sources shall not be expected to automatically have statistically independent errors.

Precipitation↗

The Potassium Isotope Composition of Aggregate Material From Asteroid Bennu

NASA’s OSIRIS-REx mission re-turned material from asteroid Bennu on September 24, 2023, marking the first time a U.S. mission has delivered asteroid samples to Earth, and the largest asteroid sample return to date. Due to the pristine nature of these primitive carbonaceous-rich samples, they allow us a rare opportunity to study our solar system’s formation to a degree not previously possible. Isotopes of moderately volatile elements (MVEs) have been recently developed as robust tracers for tracking different volatilization events within our Solar System. Of the MVEs, K has gained significant interest in recent years due to its ideal chemical and physical properties combined with technique improvements. Due to this, several recent studies have investigated the K isotope systematics within bulk chondrites and found an isotopic dichotomy be-tween the carbonaceous and non-carbonaceous chondrites (Figure 1), likely reflecting their different reservoirs which formed in the inner and outer protoplanetary disk respectively. Furthermore, systematic K isotope variations across the different carbonaceous chondrite groups and correlations with mass independent isotope systems such as Cr, Ti, and Ni, have also been observed. As a result, establishing the K isotope composition of bulk Bennu can be used to test the mission hypothesis that “Bennu’s parent asteroid accreted in the outer protoplanetary disk, beyond Jupiter, as recorded by distinct isotopic anomalies in a variety of elements” . In addition to early solar system processes, K isotopes can also be fractionated by space weathering as shown by comparisons between mature and immature lunar regolith. The degree of K isotope fractionation caused by space weathering correlates with the regolith maturity index and is an order of magnitude larger than what is observed in bulk meteorite samples which have not undergone strong space weathering processes. As such, the K isotope systematics of Bennu samples could provide an independent assessment of regolith maturity of the asteroid surface, helping to directly test the mission hypothesis that “Space weathering changed the chemistry and mineralogy of optically active surfaces” . In order to test both this hypothesis, and the hypothesis relating to Bennu’s accretion location, we aim to conduct high-precision K isotope analysis on bulk Bennu aggregates.

K Wang↗

ELMO: ELectron Microburst Observatory Mission to Study Microbursts

We describe the ELectron Microburst Observatory mission, ELMO which is proposed as a CubeSat constellation mission to fully characterize microburst event spatial extent systematically for the first time both in latitude and longitude. ELMO comprises 4 CubeSats two per orbit plane in two orbit planes. ELMO will fly in a high inclination LEO at about 500 km in altitude. The CubeSats will systematically separate both in latitude and longitude over the mission lifetime and will carry MERIT, Miniaturized Electron and Proton Telescope as the the payload. MERIT has been built,tested and delivered to fly on NASA's HERMES, Lunar Gateway mission. MERIT is a solid state detector particle telescope with two identical sensor heads pointed zenith- and nadir-wards enabling measurement of both downgpoing and upwelling electrons thereby accurately estimating electron precipitation into the atmosphere. MERIT will measure electron and protons over a wide energy range in multiple differential channels with a very time resolution of less than 4 ELMO will quantify for the first time the contribution of microbursts to radiation belt electron loss using systematic coordinated multipoint measurements. Energetic electron precipitation affects atmospheric chemistry and therefore climate change. ELMO measures microbursts with unprecedented time and energy resolution. ELMO provides critical knowledge of electron loss processes required for quantitative prediction of global electron fluxes.

Shri Kanekal↗

Satellite Remote-Sensing Capability to Assess Tropospheric-Column Ratios of Formaldehyde and Nitrogen Dioxide: Case Study During the Long Island Sound Tropospheric Ozone Study 2018 (LISTOS 2018) Field Campaign

Satellite retrievals of tropospheric-column formaldehyde (HCHO) and nitrogen dioxide (NO 2 ) are frequently used to investigate the sensitivity of ozone (O 3 ) production to emissions of nitrogen oxides and volatile organic carbon compounds. This study inter-compared the systematic biases and uncertainties in retrievals of NO 2 and HCHO, as well as resulting HCHO–NO 2 ratios (FNRs), from two commonly applied satellite sensors to investigate O 3 production sensitivities (Ozone Monitoring Instrument, OMI, and TROPOspheric Monitoring Instrument, TROPOMI) using airborne remote-sensing data taken during the Long Island Sound Tropospheric Ozone Study 2018 between 25 June and 6 September 2018. Compared to aircraft-based HCHO and NO 2 observations, the accuracy of OMI and TROPOMI were magnitude-dependent with high biases in clean environments and a tendency towards more accurate comparisons to even low biases in moderately polluted to polluted regions. OMI and TROPOMI NO 2 systematic biases were similar in magnitude (normalized median bias, NMB = 5 %–6 %; linear regression slope ≈ 0.5–0.6), with OMI having a high median bias and TROPOMI resulting in small low biases. Campaign-averaged uncertainties in the three satellite retrievals (NASA OMI; Quality Assurance for Essential Climate Variables, QA4ECV OMI; and TROPOMI) of NO 2 were generally similar, with TROPOMI retrievals having slightly less spread in the data compared to OMI. The three satellite products differed more when evaluating HCHO retrievals. Campaign-averaged tropospheric HCHO retrievals all had linear regression slopes ∼0.5 and NMBs of 39 %, 17 %, 13 %, and 23 % for NASA OMI, QA4ECV OMI, and TROPOMI at finer (0.05° x 0.05°) and coarser (0.15° x 0.15°) spatial resolution, respectively. Campaign-averaged uncertainty values (root mean square error, RMSE) in NASA and QA4ECV OMI HCHO retrievals were ~9.0 x 10 15 molecules cm –2 (∼ 50 %–55 % of mean column abundance), and the higher-spatial-resolution retrievals from TROPOMI resulted in RMSE values ∼30 % lower. Spatially averaging TROPOMI tropospheric-column HCHO, along with NO 2 and FNRs, to resolutions similar to the OMI reduced the uncertainty in these retrievals. Systematic biases in OMI and TROPOMI NO 2 and HCHO retrievals tended to cancel out, resulting in all three satellite products comparing well to observed FNRs. However, while satellite-derived FNRs had minimal campaign-averaged median biases, unresolved errors in the indicator species did not cancel out in FNR calculations, resulting in large RMSE values compared to observations. Uncertainties in HCHO retrievals were determined to drive the unresolved biases in FNR retrievals.

Matthew S. Johnson↗

Standards Roadmapping for Mission Assurance in Commercial Spaceflight

This paper explores the application of established roadmapping approaches in standards planning and roadmap development to support mission assurance objectives. Mission assurance requires proactive planning across multiple domains including technical, schedule, cost, organizational, and policy. The intersection of these domains happens at the enterprise level, and enterprise systems engineering processes can systematically guide mission assurance activities, including development of standards roadmaps. Standards planning and development is a critical contributor to an effective mission assurance strategy, although standards are often developed and adopted reactively. Technology and standards planning is a key Enterprise Process Management activity, as identified by the Systems Engineering Body of Knowledge, and technology and standards roadmaps are strategic tools used to enable that process. Technology roadmapping has proven effective in guiding enterprise architecture and concept design, and standards planning supports enterprise requirements definition and management. However, there are limited methodologies to guide such standards planning activities. The application of technology roadmapping principles to standards planning formalizes the process and establishes a repeatable framework for standards development and integration. The framework development described in this paper fills a methodological gap by adapting proven roadmapping techniques to standards planning. Through a comparison of roadmapping methodologies and a case study analysis, this approach outlines a systematic process for anticipating and planning standards needs. In the case of developing a standards integration roadmap for NASA’s Office of Safety and Mission Assurance (OSMA), technology roadmapping principles were adapted to develop a roadmap framework to allow NASA and OSMA to define an agency-wide standards integration plan for commercial and industry safety and mission assurance standards. The outcome highlights key adaptations required for roadmapping in a standards context and describes the process steps to formalize a standards planning activity. The roadmapping framework adapted for standards development and integration enables more strategic, forward-looking standards planning and allows for better alignment between evolving capabilities and mission assurance requirements. Beyond its application to mission assurance, this methodology can be transferred to other domains requiring standards development, providing a systematic approach that integrates systems engineering principles into policy strategy and decision-making processes.

Enterprise Systems Engineering↗

The Experimental Probe of Inflationary Cosmology: A Mission Concept Study for NASA's Einstein Inflation Probe

When we began our study we sought to answer five fundamental implementation questions: 1) can foregrounds be measured and subtracted to a sufficiently low level?; 2) can systematic errors be controlled?; 3) can we develop optics with sufficiently large throughput, low polarization, and frequency coverage from 30 to 300 GHz?; 4) is there a technical path to realizing the sensitivity and systematic error requirements?; and 5) what are the specific mission architecture parameters, including cost? Detailed answers to these questions are contained in this report.

Experimental Probe of Inflationary Cosmology (EPIC↗

Calibration of a laboratory spectrophotometer for specular light by means of stacked glass plates.

Stacked glass plates have been used to calibrate a laboratory spectrophotometer, over the spectral range 0.5-2.5 microns, for specular light. The uncalibrated instrument was characterized by systematic errors when used to measure the reflectance and transmittance of stacked glass plates. Calibration included first, a determination of the reflectance of a standard composed of barium sulfate paint deposited on an aluminum plate; second, the approximation of the reflectance and transmittance residuals between observed and computed values by means of cubic equations; and, finally, the removal of the systematic errors by a computer. The instrument, after calibration, was accurate to 1% when used to measure the reflectance and transmittance of stacked glass plates.

Allen, W. A.↗

Error analysis of bent ray radio occultation measurments

There are two types of experimental measurement errors of the Doppler data associated with the radio occultation, random and systematic. Random errors are due to thermal noise in the transmission channel, and the phase lock loop, and quantization error in the digital circuitry. These are called noise type errors. The systematic errors are due to geometric uncertainty and equipment phase instability. Considered is the amount of uncertainty, due to random measurement errors, in the refractivity profiles reconstructed by this type of indirect sensing experiment. A class of refractivity profiles is defined which approximately fit the set of measured data. Bounds are placed on the extent of this class of solution profiles. To accomplish this, the sensivity of the reconstructed refractivity profiles to errors in the measured quantity and the statistics of the errors in the measurement are examined.

Saintgermain, R. L.↗