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At least 703 records · Page 39

Timing the Pulsations of The Accreting Millisecond Pulsar SAX J1808.4-3658 During Its 2019 Outburst

In this paper we present a coherent timing analysis of the 401 Hz pulsations of the accreting millisecond X-ray pulsar SAX J1808.4-3658 during its 2019 outburst. Using observations collected with the Neutron Star Interior Composition Explorer (NICER), we establish the pulsar spin frequency and orbital phase during its latest epoch. We find that the 2019 outburst shows a pronounced evolution in pulse phase over the course of the outburst. These phase shifts are found to correlate with the source flux, and are interpreted in terms of hot-spot drift on the stellar surface, driven by changes in the mass accretion rate. Additionally, we find that the long-term evolution of the pulsar spin frequency shows evidence for a modulation at the Earth's orbital period, enabling pulsar timing based astrometry of this accreting millisecond pulsar.

Peter Bult↗

Python Based Plume Dynamics Estimation Tool (PyPDET) Rapid Plume Strike Analysis for RPOD Maneuvers in Deep Space Operations

I worked as a NASA Intern during the Summer 2023 term in the DS-00 division under the supervision of my mentor, Dr. Jonathan Pitt. Our goal was to build on our previous work from 2022 to develop a plume strike estimation tool using a prescribed physics methodology and model plume impingement effects while considering the dynamics of a rendezvous, operations, proximity, and docking (RPOD) maneuver. This tool supports previously configured CFD-DSMC calculations by allowing for rapid analysis of initial designs using a low-fidelity source flow model. Engineers can then use the high-fidelity CFD-DSMC tool to consolidate results as they work towards finalizing a design. This year’s project was focused on developing a software application that other engineers would be using in their analysis. Thus, the user’s experience was considered in the development of this application. Proper documentation, testability, and modularity of the codebase was our priority. For example, the project included auto documentation procedures to start building towards a User Manual, while also including dedicated demonstration cases for more explicit communication of functionality. Also, this project included a framework for testing the source code for future developments. Additionally, care was taken to develop the code using an Object-Oriented Programming approach. Thus, allowing for a modular extensibility of functionality in anticipation of future developments. The core work of this project was developing an algorithm that would transform the visiting vehicle and associated thruster data according to the kinematics described in the jet firing history. It would then calculate the estimated plume strikes on two of the target vehicles and write data accordingly into a VTK file. Summer work is to conclude by developing and presenting a PowerPoint slide deck at the intern exit briefing on August 11 th , 2023. Once the model for simple plume strike calculations is developed and tested there are several avenues to explore to continue development of this tool. These are also discussed in this report.

Plume Impingement↗

Capability for Integrated Systems Risk-Reduction Analysis

NASA's Human Research Program (HRP) is working to increase the likelihoods of human health and performance success during long-duration missions, and subsequent crew long-term health. To achieve these goals, there is a need to develop an integrated understanding of how the complex human physiological-socio-technical mission system behaves in spaceflight. This understanding will allow HRP to provide cross-disciplinary spaceflight countermeasures while minimizing resources such as mass, power, and volume. This understanding will also allow development of tools to assess the state of and enhance the resilience of individual crewmembers, teams, and the integrated mission system. We will discuss a set of risk-reduction questions that has been identified to guide the systems approach necessary to meet these needs. In addition, a framework of factors influencing human health and performance in space, called the Contributing Factor Map (CFM), is being applied as the backbone for incorporating information addressing these questions from sources throughout HRP. Using the common language of the CFM, information from sources such as the Human System Risk Board summaries, Integrated Research Plan, and HRP-funded publications has been combined and visualized in ways that allow insight into cross-disciplinary interconnections in a systematic, standardized fashion. We will show examples of these visualizations. We will also discuss applications of the resulting analysis capability that can inform science portfolio decisions, such as areas in which cross-disciplinary solicitations or countermeasure development will potentially be fruitful.

Mindock, J.↗

Model data for Flood Frequency Analysis using Stochastic Storm Transposition and an Integrated Surface-Subsurface Hydrological Model

This archived provides scripts and input files used for the implementation of a novel approach to conduct process-based Flood Frequency Analysis using a Stochastic Storm Transposition (SST) and an Integrated Surface-Subsurface Hydrological Model (ISSHM). As a proof-of-concept, this study uses the ISSHM, Advanced Terrestrial Simulator (Amanzi-ATS) model, and the SST model, RainyDay, to conduct flood frequency analysis by simulating the flood response to 5,000 annual synthetic storm events in a ~2000 km2 Southeast Texas watershed.The Watershed Workflow package is implemented in Python3. The Jupyter notebooks can be executed through multiple open-source tools, for example, Anaconda Jupyter Lab, VS Studio Code, etc. Other data files include TXT, CSV, DAT, SBATCH, SHP, TIF, NetCDF, and HDF5 files, which can be read through Python scripts. The input files for the ATS model and RainyDay model have .XML and .SST extensions, respectively, and can be edited in any commonly used text editors.This archive contains:* Scripts and data files essential for generating the ATS model input. It uses the Watershed Workflow package to produce both mesh and ATS input files. * Jupyter notebooks designated for the ATS model evaluation, covering both long-term simulations and 40 rainfall-runoff events.* Input files required to simulate SST storm events using RainyDay.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Long-term basin-scale hydropower expansion under alternative scenarios in a global multisector model

Abstract Hydropower is an important source of renewable, low-carbon energy. Global and regional energy systems, including hydropower, may evolve in a variety of ways under different scenarios. Representation of hydropower in global multisector models is often simplified at the country or regional level. Some models assume a fixed hydropower supply, which is not affected by economic drivers or competition with other electricity generation sources. Here, we implement an endogenous model of hydropower expansion in the Global Change Analysis Model, including a representation of hydropower potential at the river basin level to project future hydropower production across river basins and explore hydropower’s role in evolving energy systems both regionally and globally, under alternative scenarios. Each scenario utilizes the new endogenous hydropower implementation but makes different assumptions about future low-carbon transitions, technology costs, and energy demand. Our study suggests there is ample potential for hydropower to expand in the future to help meet growing demand for electricity driven by socioeconomic growth, electrification of end-use sectors, or other factors. However, hydropower expansion will be constrained by resource availability, resource location, and cost in ways that limit its growth relative to other technologies. As a result, all scenarios show a generally decreasing share of hydroelectricity over total electricity generation at the global level. Hydropower expansion varies across regions, and across basins within regions, due to differences in resource potential, cost, current utilization, and other factors. In sum, our scenarios entail hydropower generation growth between 36% and 119% in 2050, compared to 2015, globally.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Thermo-hydro-mechanical analysis of subsurface ice-based thermal energy storage

Ice-based thermal energy storage systems are widely utilized for cooling and managing peak electrical demand globally, offering daily or weekly storage capabilities for both individual homes and larger office buildings. However, scaling these systems for district-level cooling or integrating them with renewable energy sources presents challenges, especially in accommodating larger volumes and addressing seasonal storage requirements in densely populated urban areas. This paper proposes a novel solution by evaluating subsurface ice-based thermal energy storage, in which the underground is subjected to seasonal freeze/thaw cycles. However, these cycles may influence ground behavior, affecting pore pressure and inducing ground movement. To systematically investigate these challenges, we enhance the TOUGH-FLAC simulator by integrating water/ice phase change capabilities and updating the effective stress–strain constitutive relation. Both modifications are validated against analytical solutions or experimental data. Through numerical simulations spanning a decade with ten seasonal freeze/thaw cycles, we evaluate the performance and long-term stability of a generic subsurface ice-based thermal energy storage system, considering factors such as ground permeability, freezing pipe spacing, freeze/thaw damage, and glycol solution temperature. The simulations indicate that ice formation induces pore pressure variations that drive seasonal surface heave and settlement, controlled by ground permeability, pipe spacing, and glycol solution temperature, along with tensile and localized shear deformation around freeze pipes. This highlights the need for accurate ground property characterization and geomechanical analysis for subsurface ice-based thermal energy storage.

Ground freezing↗

Increasing phosphorus loss despite widespread concentration decline in US rivers

The loss of phosphorous (P) from the land to aquatic systems has polluted waters and threatened food production worldwide. Systematic trend analysis of P, a nonrenewable resource, has been challenging, primarily due to sparse and inconsistent historical data. Here, we leveraged intensive hydrometeorological data and the recent renaissance of deep learning approaches to fill data gaps and reconstruct temporal trends. We trained a multitask long short-term memory model for total P (TP) using data from 430 rivers across the contiguous United States (CONUS). Trend analysis of reconstructed daily records (1980–2019) shows widespread decline in concentrations, with declining, increasing, and insignificantly changing trends in 60%, 28%, and 12% of the rivers, respectively. Concentrations in urban rivers have declined the most despite rising urban population in the past decades; concentrations in agricultural rivers however have mostly increased, suggesting not-as-effective controls of nonpoint sources in agriculture lands compared to point sources in cities. TP loss, calculated as fluxes by multiplying concentration and discharge, however exhibited an overall increasing rate of 6.5% per decade at the CONUS scale over the past 40 y, largely due to increasing river discharge. Results highlight the challenge of reducing TP loss that is complicated by changing river discharge in a warming climate.

Science & Technology - Other Topics↗

Systematic Source Determination and X-Ray Radiography Detection of Nonuniformities on High-Density Carbon Ablators

Recent deuterium-tritium (D-T)–layered implosion experiments at the National Ignition Facility have achieved a burning plasma and >1-MJ neutron yield. A series of repeat experiments have shown that the degree of performance is very likely dependent on capsule quality, including the quantity of what are collectively termed “high- Z particles.” These particles are detected on a custom-built radiography system, known as the Sagometer, during the final target qualification process. The term particles is misleading, as the source of these nonuniformities in the capsule images is uncertain; the term detection will be used instead. An increased number of D-T targets have been rejected at the final stages of production due to Sagometer detections. Late detections are deleterious in terms of loss of production parts, effort, and overall operating efficiency. In response, we undertook an effort to determine the origin of these detections and to ultimately mitigate target losses caused by them. Through careful testing and analysis, we have determined neither insufficient production cleanliness nor hohlraum shedding is responsible for the detections on the capsule. Here, we determined that the detections are inherent to the capsule and have made efforts to use the Zeiss Xradia to identify them earlier in the production process. While testing revealed the Xradia is not currently sufficient for identifying such particles using radiography images, we continue to look to other forms of metrology to down select the capsules early in the process.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗

Impact- and Thermal-Resistant Epoxy Resin Toughened with Acacia Honey

High performance polymers with bio-based modifiers are promising materials in terms of applications and environmental impact. In this work, raw acacia honey was used as a bio-modifier for epoxy resin, as a rich source of functional groups. The addition of honey resulted in the formation of highly stable structures that were observed in scanning electron microscopy images as separate phases at the fracture surface, which were involved in the toughening of the resin. Structural changes were investigated, revealing the formation of a new aldehyde carbonyl group. Thermal analysis confirmed the formation of products that were stable up to 600 °C, with a glass transition temperature of 228 °C. An energy-controlled impact test was performed to compare the absorbed impact energy of bio-modified epoxy containing different amounts of honey with unmodified epoxy resin. The results showed that bio-modified epoxy resin with 3 wt% of acacia honey could withstand several impacts with full recovery, while unmodified epoxy resin broke at first impact. The absorbed energy at first impact was 2.5 times higher for bio-modified epoxy resin than it was for unmodified epoxy resin. In this manner, by using simple preparation and a raw material that is abundant in nature, a novel epoxy with high thermal and impact resistance was obtained, opening a path for further research in this field.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Climate model projections from the Scenario Model Intercomparison Project (ScenarioMIP) of CMIP6

Abstract. The Scenario Model Intercomparison Project (ScenarioMIP) defines and coordinates the main set of future climate projections, based on concentration-driven simulations, within the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 6 (CMIP6). This paper presents a range of its outcomes by synthesizing results from the participating global coupled Earth system models. We limit our scope to the analysis of strictly geophysical outcomes: mainly global averages and spatial patterns of change for surface air temperature and precipitation. We also compare CMIP6 projections to CMIP5 results, especially for those scenarios that were designed to provide continuity across the CMIP phases, at the same time highlighting important differences in forcing composition, as well as in results. The range of future temperature and precipitation changes by the end of the century (2081–2100) encompassing the Tier 1 experiments based on the Shared Socioeconomic Pathway (SSP) scenarios (SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, SSP3-7.0 and SSP5-8.5) and SSP1-1.9 spans a larger range of outcomes compared to CMIP5, due to higher warming (by close to 1.5 ∘C) reached at the upper end of the 5 %–95 % envelope of the highest scenario (SSP5-8.5). This is due to both the wider range of radiative forcing that the new scenarios cover and the higher climate sensitivities in some of the new models compared to their CMIP5 predecessors. Spatial patterns of change for temperature and precipitation averaged over models and scenarios have familiar features, and an analysis of their variations confirms model structural differences to be the dominant source of uncertainty. Models also differ with respect to the size and evolution of internal variability as measured by individual models' initial condition ensemble spreads, according to a set of initial condition ensemble simulations available under SSP3-7.0. These experiments suggest a tendency for internal variability to decrease along the course of the century in this scenario, a result that will benefit from further analysis over a larger set of models. Benefits of mitigation, all else being equal in terms of societal drivers, appear clearly when comparing scenarios developed under the same SSP but to which different degrees of mitigation have been applied. It is also found that a mild overshoot in temperature of a few decades around mid-century, as represented in SSP5-3.4OS, does not affect the end outcome of temperature and precipitation changes by 2100, which return to the same levels as those reached by the gradually increasing SSP4-3.4 (not erasing the possibility, however, that other aspects of the system may not be as easily reversible). Central estimates of the time at which the ensemble means of the different scenarios reach a given warming level might be biased by the inclusion of models that have shown faster warming in the historical period than the observed. Those estimates show all scenarios reaching 1.5 ∘C of warming compared to the 1850–1900 baseline in the second half of the current decade, with the time span between slow and fast warming covering between 20 and 27 years from present. The warming level of 2 ∘C of warming is reached as early as 2039 by the ensemble mean under SSP5-8.5 but as late as the mid-2060s under SSP1-2.6. The highest warming level considered (5 ∘C) is reached by the ensemble mean only under SSP5-8.5 and not until the mid-2090s.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

The magnetic field of Mercury

The paper examines the magnetic field observations and their analyses relating to the determination of the Mercury magnetic field. Methods of analyzing data included: (1) comparison of bow shock and magnetopause relative positions at Mercury to the earth, (2) direct spherical harmonic analysis, (3) magnetosphere modeling by an image dipole, and (4) scaling of a mathematical model for the terrestrial magnetosphere. Dipole moments were determined using partial quadrupole and octupole terms to improve the least-square fit of models to observations; analyses by method (2) yield a convergent series of dipole moments values considered to best represent the intrinsic planetary field. Finally, it is suggested that the origin of the magnetic field of Mercury cannot be uniquely determined, but the sources of convective energy may be radiogenic decay and heat release, gravitational settling, and differentiation of processional torques.

Ness, N. F.↗

Implications of isotope data for the origin of the moon

Lunar isotope data are studied in terms of lunar reservoir models. An analysis is performed to determine how the samarium-neodymium and rubidium-strontium systems evolve in terms of a two-reservoir model. Isotope data from lunar rocks show much more variability than similar data from terrestrial rocks. The midocean ridge basalts yield consistent isotope signatures on a worldwide basis suggesting that vigorous mantle convection has mixed and homogeneized the upper mantle beneath the lithosphere plates. The variability of the lunar data is taken as evidence for distinct source regions which in effect support a relatively cool origin of the moon.

Turcotte, D. L.↗

The Aeroacoustics of Supersonic Coaxial Jets

Instability waves have been established as the dominant source of mixing noise radiating into the downstream arc of a supersonic jet when the waves have phase velocities that are supersonic relative to ambient conditions. Recent theories for supersonic jet noise have used the concepts of growing and decaying linear instability waves for predicting radiated noise. This analysis is extended to the prediction of noise radiation from supersonic coaxial jets. Since the analysis requires a known mean flow and the coaxial jet mean flow is not described easily in terms of analytic functions, a numerical prediction is made for its development. The Reynolds averaged, compressible, boundary layer equations are solved using a mixing length turbulence model. Empirical correlations are developed for the effects of velocity and temperature ratios and Mach number. Both normal and inverted velocity profile coaxial jets are considered. Comparisons with measurements for both single and coaxial jets show good agreement. The results from mean flow and stability calculations are used to predict the noise radiation from coaxial jets with different operating conditions. Comparisons are made between different coaxial jets and a single equivalent jet with the same total thrust, mass flow, and exit area. Results indicate that normal velocity profile jets can have noise reductions compared to the single equivalent jet. No noise reductions are found for inverted velocity profile jets operated at the minimum noise condition compared to the single equivalent jet. However, it is inferred that changes in area ratio may provide noise reduction benefits for inverted velocity profile jets.

Dahl, Milo D.↗

Angular momentum exchange among the solid Earth, atmosphere, and oceans: A case study of the 1982-1983 El Nino event

The 1982-1983 El Nino/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) event was accompanied by the largest interannual variation in the Earth's rotation rate on record. In this study we demonstrate that atmospheric forcing was the dominant cause for this rotational anomaly, with atmospheric angular momentum (AAM) integrated from 1000 to 1 mbar (troposphere plus stratosphere) accounting for up to 92% of the interannual variance in the length of day (LOD). Winds between 100 and 1 mbar contributed nearly 20% of the variance explained, indicating that the stratosphere can play a significant role in the Earth's angular momentum budget on interannual time scales. Examination of LOD, AAM, and Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) data for a 15-year span surrounding the 1982-1983 event suggests that the strong rotational response resulted from constructive interference between the low-frequency (approximately 4-6 year) and quasi-biennial (approximately 2-3 year) components of the ENSO phenomenon, as well as the stratospheric Quasi-Biennial Oscillation (QBO). Sources of the remaining LOD discrepancy (approximately 55 and 64 microseconds rms residual for the European Centre for Medium-Range Forecasting (EC) and U.S. National Meteorological Center (NMC) analyses) are explored; noise and systematic errors in the AAM data are estimated to contribute 18 and 33 microseconds, respectively, leaving a residual (rms) of 40 (52) microseconds unaccounted for by the EC (NMC) analysis. Oceanic angular momentum contributions (both moment of inertia changes associated with baroclinic waves and motion terms) are shown to be candidates in closing the interannual axial angular momentum budget.

Dickey, J. O.↗

Cooling of the North Atlantic by Saharan Dust

Using aerosol optical depth, sea surface temperature, top-of-the-atmosphere solar radiation flux, and oceanic mixed-layer depth from diverse data sources that include NASA satellites, NCEP reanalysis, in situ observations, as well as long-term dust records from Barbados, we examine the possible relationships between Saharan dust and Atlantic sea surface temperature. Results show that the estimated anomalous cooling pattern of the Atlantic during June 2006 relative to June 2005 due to attenuation of surface solar radiation by Saharan dust remarkably resemble observations, accounting for approximately 30-40% of the observed change in sea surface temperature. Historical data analysis show that there is a robust negative correlation between atmospheric dust loading and Atlantic SST consistent with the notion that increased (decreased) Saharan dust is associated with cooling (warming) of the Atlantic during the early hurricane season (July- August-September).

Lau, K. M.↗

Honeywell Enhancing Airplane State Awareness (EASA) Project: Final Report on Refinement and Evaluation of Candidate Solutions for Airplane System State Awareness

The loss of pilot airplane state awareness (ASA) has been implicated as a factor in several aviation accidents identified by the Commercial Aviation Safety Team (CAST). These accidents were investigated to identify precursors to the loss of ASA and develop technologies to address the loss of ASA. Based on a gap analysis, two technologies were prototyped and assessed with a formative pilot-in-the-loop evaluation in NASA Langley’s full-motion Research Flight Deck. The technologies address: 1) data source anomaly detection in real-time, and 2) intelligent monitoring aids to provide nominal and predictive awareness of situations to be monitored and a mission timeline to visualize events of interest. The evaluation results indicated favorable impressions of both technologies for mitigating the loss of ASA in terms of operational utility, workload, acceptability, complexity, and usability. The team concludes that there is a feasible retrofit solution for improving ASA that would minimize certification risk, integration costs, and training impact.

Whitlow, Stephen D.↗

Climate model projections from the Scenario Model Intercomparison Project (ScenarioMIP) of CMIP6

The Scenario Model Intercomparison Project (ScenarioMIP) defines and coordinates the main set of future climate projections, based on concentration-driven simulations, within the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 6 (CMIP6). This paper presents a range of its outcomes by synthesizing results from the participating global coupled Earth system models. We limit our scope to the analysis of strictly geophysical outcomes: mainly global averages and spatial patterns of change for surface air temperature and precipitation. We also compare CMIP6 projections to CMIP5 results, especially for those scenarios that were designed to provide continuity across the CMIP phases, at the same time highlighting important differences in forcing composition, as well as in results. The range of future temperature and precipitation changes by the end of the century (2081–2100) encompassing the Tier 1 experiments based on the Shared Socioeconomic Pathway (SSP) scenarios (SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, SSP3-7.0 and SSP5-8.5) and SSP1-1.9 spans a larger range of outcomes compared to CMIP5, due to higher warming (by close to 1.5 °C) reached at the upper end of the 5 %–95 % envelope of the highest scenario (SSP5-8.5). This is due to both the wider range of radiative forcing that the new scenarios cover and the higher climate sensitivities in some of the new models compared to their CMIP5 predecessors. Spatial patterns of change for temperature and precipitation averaged over models and scenarios have familiar features, and an analysis of their variations confirms model structural differences to be the dominant source of uncertainty. Models also differ with respect to the size and evolution of internal variability as measured by individual models' initial condition ensemble spreads, according to a set of initial condition ensemble simulations available under SSP3-7.0. These experiments suggest a tendency for internal variability to decrease along the course of the century in this scenario, a result that will benefit from further analysis over a larger set of models. Benefits of mitigation, all else being equal in terms of societal drivers, appear clearly when comparing scenarios developed under the same SSP but to which different degrees of mitigation have been applied. It is also found that a mild overshoot in temperature of a few decades around mid-century, as represented in SSP5-3.4OS, does not affect the end outcome of temperature and precipitation changes by 2100, which return to the same levels as those reached by the gradually increasing SSP4-3.4 (not erasing the possibility, however, that other aspects of the system may not be as easily reversible). Central estimates of the time at which the ensemble means of the different scenarios reach a given warming level might be biased by the inclusion of models that have shown faster warming in the historical period than the observed. Those estimates show all scenarios reaching 1.5 °C of warming compared to the 1850–1900 baseline in the second half of the current decade, with the time span between slow and fast warming covering between 20 and 27 years from present. The warming level of 2 °C of warming is reached as early as 2039 by the ensemble mean under SSP5-8.5 but as late as the mid-2060s under SSP1-2.6. The highest warming level considered (5 °C) is reached by the ensemble mean only under SSP5-8.5 and not until the mid-2090s.d-2090s.

Scenario Model Intercomparison Project (ScenarioMI↗

Calibration strategy of the PROSPECT-II detector with external and intrinsic sources

This paper presents an energy calibration scheme for an upgraded reactor antineutrino detector for the Precision Reactor Oscillation and Spectrum Experiment (PROSPECT). The PROSPECT collaboration is preparing an upgraded detector, PROSPECT-II (P-II), to advance capabilities for the investigation of fundamental neutrino physics, fission processes and associated reactor neutrino flux, and nuclear security applications. P-II will expand the statistical power of the original PROSPECT (P-I) dataset by at least an order of magnitude. The new design builds upon previous P-I design and focuses on improving the detector robustness and long-term stability to enable multi-year operation at one or more sites. The new design optimizes the fiducial volume by elimination of dead space previously occupied by internal calibration channels, which in turn necessitates the external deployment. In this paper, we describe a calibration strategy for P-II. Here, the expected performance of externally deployed calibration sources is evaluated using P-I data and a well-benchmarked simulation package by varying detector segmentation configurations in the analysis. The proposed external calibration scheme delivers a compatible energy scale model and achieves comparable performance with the inclusion of an additional AmBe neutron source, in comparison to the previous internal arrangement. Most importantly, the estimated uncertainty contribution from the external energy scale calibration model meets the precision requirements of the P-II experiment.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗