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At least 703 records · Page 39

Convolutional neural networks for intra-hour solar forecasting based on sky image sequences

Accurate and timely solar forecasts play an increasingly critical role in power systems. Compared to longer forecasting timescales, very short-term solar forecasting has lagged behind in both research and practice. In this paper, we propose deep convolutional neural networks (CNNs) to provide operational intra-hour (10-minute-ahead to 60-minute-ahead) solar forecasts. We develop two CNN structures inspired by a widely-used CNN architecture. The CNNs are tailored to our solar forecasting regression tasks and rely solely on sky image sequences. Case studies based on six years of data (over 150,000 data points) demonstrate that the best CNN model has forecast skill scores of 20%-39% over the naive persistence of cloudiness benchmark, even at these very short timescales. The CNNs also have consistently superior performance when compared to shallow machine learning models with meteorological predictors, where the improvement averages around 7%. The sensitivity analyses show that the sky image length, resolution, and weather conditions have impacts on the deep learning model accuracy. In our intra-hour problem with specific setups, two sky images with a 10-minute 128 x 128 resolution yield the most accurate forecasts. Current limitations, future work, and deployment challenges and solutions are also discussed.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Sunspots

It is pointed out that the sun provides a close-up view of many astrophysically important phenomena, nearly all connected with the causes and effects of solar magnetic fields. The present article provides a review of the role of sunspots in a number of new areas of research. Connections with other solar phenomena are examined, taking into account flares, the solar magnetic cycle, global flows, luminosity variation, and global oscillations. A selective review of the structure and dynamic phenomena observed within sunspots is also presented. It is found that sunspots are usually contorted during the growth phase of an active region as magnetic field rapidly emerges and sunspots form, coalesce, and move past or even through each other. Attention is given to structure and flows, oscillations and waves, and plans for future studies.

Moore, R.↗

II-VI and I-III-VI2 alloy crystals for photovoltaic applications

The results of the photoreflectance, photoconductivity, and photoluminescence studies on Mn(x)Cd(1-x)Te single crystals are discussed from the viewpoint of the utility of these compounds as gap components in multijunction solar cells. Attention is also given to recent results on CuInSe2 and on quaternary I-III-VI2 alloys based on CuInSe2. Recent Kelvin probe and X-ray photoemission spectroscopy studies of the surface properties of CuInSe2 and Mn(x)Cd(1-x)Te, respectively, are described. In addition, recent results on the radiation damage and annealing kinetics of Mn(x)Cd(1-x)Te are considered in the context of future work on the sputtering and ion beam deposition of thin films of this material.

Bachmann, K. J.↗

Interpretation of Dynamics Explorer far UV images of the quiet time thermosphere

A selected set of far ultra violet images of Earth have been analyzed quanitatively to establish their validity for studying thermospheric weather. The set of images chosen for the study was restricted to mostly geomagnetically quiet conditions in order to obtain a baseline understanding of the relationship between the observations and thermospheric phenomenology. The images included low to modrerate solar activity levels. A new model was developed to generate global dayglow images using first principles methods. The mass Spectrometer/incoherent scatter (MSIS-86) model was used to predict the thermospheric concentrations. The analyses of thermospheric images observed in the 123 to 160-nm nominal passband show that the spectral composition for observations on the projected earth disk is dominated by O I 130.4-nm radiation (85-90%), with concentrations from O I 135.6-nm and N2 Lyman-Birge-Hopefield (LBH) bands of about 5-8% each. The synthetic images reproduce the global features of the observed images rather well. Differences between the model and the data are attributed to real atmospheric effects, such as atomic oxygen depletions which are not well reproduced by the MSIS model when geomagnetic activity is elevated. The absoute values recorded were 38-54% higher than predicted. We attribute this discrepancy to low values of the solar extreme ultraviolet irradiances used in the model. Images obtained in the 136 to 165-nm nominal passband are a factor of 2.7 greater than the model. The excess signal observed is most likely due to a long wavelength tail in the instrument sensitivity which allowed Rayleigh scattered sunlight between 180and 250nm to be detected. The understanding of the Dynamics Explorer (DE 1) images gained by this study provides the basis for future work on the global response of the theremosphere to geomagnetic forcing.

Meier, R. R.↗

Robotic and Human Exploration of Near-Earth Objects

U.S. President Obama stated on April 15, 2010 that the next goal for human spaceflight will be to send human beings to a near-Earth asteroid by 2025. Given this direction from the White House, NASA has been involved in studying various strategies for near-Earth object (NEO) exploration in order to follow U.S. space exploration policy. This mission would be the first human expedition to an interplanetary body beyond the Earth-Moon system and would prove useful for testing technologies required for human missions to Mars and other Solar System destinations. Missions to NEOs would undoubtedly provide a great deal of technical and engineering data on spacecraft operations for future human space exploration while conducting in-depth scientific investigations of these primitive objects. In addition, the resulting scientific investigations would refine designs for future extraterrestrial resource extraction and utilization, and assist in the development of hazard mitigation techniques for planetary defense.

Abell, Paul↗

Surface Polarized Reflectance Analysis For Aerosol Remote Sensing

We study the Earth surface polarized reflectance using data collected by a space-based lidar. Accurate modelling of the surface reflectance supports retrieval algorithm development for the current and future Earth Science missions. Strong polarization of the laser light from Cloud-Aerosol Transport System (CATS) instrument, operated in 2015-2017, and nighttime measurements yield higher signal-to-noise ratio for polarization compared to the previous analysis of reflected, initially unpolarized, solar light.

Earth surface polarized reflectance↗

Enabling the Assimilation of CrIS Shortwave Infrared Observations in Global NWP at NOAA. Part II: OSEs and Results

The assimilation of data from hyperspectral infrared sounders in global data assimilation systems has historically been focused on observations in the longwave infrared (LWIR) region of the spectrum (650-1100 cm−1), despite the often concurrent availability of measurements from the shortwave infrared (SWIR) region of the spectrum (2150-2550 cm−1), because issues (like solar effects) have generally prevented the assimilation of SWIR observations. Recent advances in radiative transfer models have worked to address some of the previous challenges in simulating SWIR observations, and the assimilation of SWIR data (e.g. from potential future small-satellites) is now a feasible prospect. Still, a better understanding of how these observations perform in a data assimilation system and impact resulting analyses and NWP forecasts is necessary. In this study, the value of SWIR observations in global NWP is assessed by assimilating SWIR observations from the Cross-track Infrared Sounder (CrIS) in NOAA’s Global Data Assimilation System (GDAS). The methodologies used to enable the assimilation of these observations, including the implementation of a scene-dependent observation error and the enhancement of quality control procedures, are discussed, as are the results of Observing System Experiments (OSEs) conducted to evaluate the impact of assimilating SWIR observations on forecast skill. The overall results show that SWIR assimilation produces similar forecast impacts to LWIR assimilation. The ability to demonstrate that the assimilation or SWIR observations in NWP is a realistic prospect may help to shape future constellations of small-satellites to serve as a beneficial complement to the current constellation if hyperspectral IR sounders.

Erin Jones↗

JISEA Annual Meeting: Clean Energy for Oil and Gas Topic Table

Presentation on clean energy for oil and gas topic discussion table at the 2022 JISEA annual meeting. Many refineries may have wind and solar resources and clean energy technology costs are declining. JISEA created an oil and gas consortium including Baker Hughes, Conoco Phillips, Extraction Oil & Gas, INGAA Foundation, and Kinder Morgan to explore potential pathways for integrating clean energy into oil and gas operations. This presentation goes over JISEA case studies that demonstrate reliable and affordable clean power for oil and gas operations. JISEA used the REopt Energy Planning Platform and evaluated several potential future scenarios.

clean energy↗

Results from an International Interlaboratory Study on Light- and Elevated Temperature-Induced Degradation (LETID) in Solar Modules

This presentation reports recently submitted results from an international interlaboratory comparison study on light- and elevated temperature-induced degradation (LETID) on crystalline silicon photovoltaic (PV) modules. A large global network of PV module manufacturers and PV testing laboratories collaborated to design a protocol for LETID detection, and screen a large and diverse set of prototype modules for LETID. We summarize the range of observed degradation and provide initial conclusions on the reproducibility of results across labs. In LETID-sensitive modules, both open-circuit voltage (VOC) and short-circuit current (ISC) degrade by a roughly similar magnitude. We observe, as do previous studies, that LETID affects each cell in a module differently. An investigation of the potential mismatch losses caused by nonuniform LETID degradation found that mismatch loss is insignificant compared to the direct LETID-related losses. We summarize the conclusions drawn from the study, provide an update on a forthcoming standard technical specification for LETID testing of PV modules (IEC TS 63342 ED1), and discuss unresolved questions and potential future work on LETID in PV modules.

degradation↗

Space optics for studying extra-solar planetary systems

The sharp imaging of telescopes in space will improve the ability to see faint objects near bright ones. One exciting application is the search for planets around other stars. However, because a planet is, at best, 10 exp 9 times fainter than a star in visible light, specialized optical systems are required. Using apodization to remove diffracted light, the limiting source of noise is the intensity of starlight scattered by mirror figure errors. Based on the prelaunch metrology of the HST mirrors, and considering only photonstatistics, months of integration would be needed for HST to detect Jupiter next to the sun at a distance of 5 pc. The integration times will be shorter for future telescopes in space with smoother mirrors and/or larger apertures.

Brown, Robert A.↗

Final Technical Report of a Feasibility Investigation of a Hydropower Flexibility Upgrade Kit

The project studied the feasibility of a concept for a flexibility upgrade kit called h-Dynamyk to improve the flexibility of U.S. hydropower plants and assessed its potential impact on the U.S. hydropower industry. This concept addresses the growing need for grid flexibility amid rising renewable energy adoption, such as wind and solar, which often introduce intermittency. The upgrade kit is intended to address challenges posed by aging turbine designs in meeting modern grid demands for flexibility services like frequency response, voltage control, spinning reserve, and black-start capabilities. Key features of the h-Dynamyk kit include siphon turbine assemblies, medium-voltage variable frequency drives (VFDs), and smart controls integrated with plant systems to optimize operations and extend equipment life. This nine-month discovery project successfully achieved its objectives by defining a baseline design and performance metrics for the h-Dynamyk flexibility upgrade kit, analyzing this baseline, and incorporating lessons learned from this analysis into a modified set of metrics and recommendations for future design and testing, which were further guided by field site studies.

13 HYDRO ENERGY↗

Three Dimensional Rover/Lander/Orbiter Mission-Planning (3D-ROMPS) System: A Modern Approach to Mission Planning

NASA's current mission planning system is based on point design, two-dimensional display, spread sheets, and report technology. This technology does not enable engineers to analyze the results of parametric studies of missions plans. This technology will not support the increased observational complexity and data volume of missions like Cassini, Mars Reconnaissance Orbiter (MRO), Mars Science Laboratory (MSL), and Mars Sample Return (MSR). The goal of the 3D-ROMPS task has been to establish a set of operational mission planning and analysis tools in the Image Processing Laboratory (IPL) Mission Support Area (MSA) that will respond to engineering requirements for planning future Solar System Exploration (SSE) missions using a three-dimensional display.

Scharfe, Nathan D.↗

Model Calculations of Solar Spectral Irradiance in the 3.7 Micron Band for Earth Remote Sensing Applications

Since the launch of the first Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR) instrument aboard TIROS-N, measurements in the 3.7 micron atmospheric window have been exploited for use in cloud detection and screening, cloud thermodynamic phase and surface snow/ice discrimination, and quantitative cloud particle size retrievals. The utility of the band has led to the incorporation of similar channels on a number of existing satellite imagers and future operational imagers. Daytime observations in the band include both reflected solar and thermal emission energy. Since 3.7 micron channels are calibrated to a radiance scale (via onboard blackbodies), knowledge of the top-of-atmosphere solar irradiance in the spectral region is required to infer reflectance. Despite the ubiquity of 3.7 micron channels, absolute solar spectral irradiance data comes from either a single measurement campaign (Thekaekara et al. 1969) or synthetic spectra. In this study, we compare historical 3.7 micron band spectral irradiance data sets with the recent semi-empirical solar model of the quiet-Sun by Fontenla et al. (2006). The model has expected uncertainties of about 2 % in the 3.7 pm spectral region. We find that channel-averaged spectral irradiances using the observations reported by Thekaekara et al. are 3.2-4.1% greater than those derived from the Fontenla et al. model for MODIS and AVHRR instrument bandpasses; the Kurucz spectrum (1995) as included in the MODTRAN4 distribution, gives channel-averaged irradiances 1.2-1.5 % smaller than the Fontenla model. For the MODIS instrument, these solar irradiance uncertainties result in cloud microphysical retrievals uncertainties comparable with other fundamental reflectance error sources.

Platnick, Steven↗

Mid-Latitude Ionospheric Disturbances Due to Geomagnetic Storms at ISS Altitudes

Spacecraft charging of the International Space Station (ISS) is dominated by the interaction of the high voltage US solar arrays with the F2-region ionospheric plasma environment. We are working to fully understand the charging behavior of the ISS solar arrays and determine how well future charging behavior can be predicted from in-situ measurements of plasma density and temperature. One aspect of this work is a need to characterize the magnitude of electron density and temperature variations that may be encountered at ISS orbital altitudes (approximately 400 km), the latitudes over which they occur, and the time periods for which the disturbances persist. We will present preliminary results from a study of ionospheric disturbances in the "mid-latitude" region defined as the approximately 30 - 60 degree extra-equatorial magnetic latitudes sampled by ISS. The study is focused on geomagnetic storm periods because they are well known drivers for disturbances in the high-latitude and mid-latitude ionospheric plasma. Changes in the F2 peak electron density obtained from ground based ionosonde records are compared to in-situ electron density and temperature measurements from the CHAMP and ISS spacecraft at altitudes near, or above, the F2 peak. Results from a number of geomagnetic storms will be presented and their potential impact on ISS charging will be discussed.

Minow, Joseph I.↗

40 Years of Processing Pieces of Space

This year marks the 40th year anniversary for the Antarctic Search for Meteorite (ANSMET) program. In 1976, the ANSMET program led the first expedition to Antarctica. The ANSMET program is a US-led field-based science project that recovers meteorite samples from Antarctica. Once a year from late November to late January, a field team consisting of 8 to 12 people, spends 6-8 weeks camping on the ice and collecting meteorites. Since 1976, more than 22,000 meteorite samples have been recovered. These meteorites come from asteroids, planets and other bodies of the solar system. Once collected, the Antarctic meteorites are shipped to NASA/Johnson Space Center (JSC) Houston, TX. in a refrigerated truck and are kept frozen to minimize oxidation until they are ready for initial processing. In Antarctica each meteorite is given a field tag which consists of numbers, once in the lab, this is replaced by an official tag, consisting of the Antarctic field location and year collected. The types and numbers of meteorites that have been classified include 849 carbonaceous chondrites, 135 enstatites, 512 achondrites, 64 stony, 115 irons, 48 others (27 R chondrites, 7 ungrouped), 6,161 H chondrites, 7,668 L chondrites, and 4,589 LL chondrites. Although 80-85 percent of the collected meteorites fall in the ordinary chondrite group, the other approximately 15 percent represent rare types of achondrites and carbonaceous chondrites. These rare meteorites include 25 lunar meteorites, 15 Martian meteorites, scores of various types of carbonaceous chondrites, and unique achondrites. The Antarctic meteorites that have been collected are processed in the Meteorite Processing Lab at JSC in Houston, TX. Initial processing of the meteorites begins with thawing/drying the meteorites in a nitrogen glove box for 24 to 48 hours. The meteorites are then photographed, measured, weighed and a description of the interior and exterior of each meteorite is written. The meteorite is broken and a representative sample, either a 1-3 gram chip or thin section is sent to the Smithsonian Institution for classification. After Antarctic meteorites have been classified and approved by the Nomenclature Committee of the Meteoritical Society, they are announced in the Antarctic Meteorite Newsletter, which is published twice per year (fall and spring) so that scientists may review which meteorites are available to study. Requests for Antarctic Meteorite samples are welcomed from research scientists, regardless of their current state of funding for meteorite studies. Since its inception over 3,300 requests have been made for pieces of these meteorites and over 400 investigators worldwide are active in the study of meteorites.. Research on these samples has been published in more than1500 peer reviewed articles; a listing of papers for any meteorite sample can be generated by accessing http://curator.jsc.nasa.gov/antmet/referencesearch.cfm. Antarctic meteorite samples requested by scientists are prepared several different ways. Most samples are prepared as chips, either using a rock splitter or using a chisel and chipping bowl. In special situations, a researcher may request a meteorite slab in which case the samples are cut using a diamond-bladed bandsaw inside of a dry nitrogen glove box. The meteorites are always cut in a 100 percent liquid-free environment. Additionally, thin/thick sections of Antarctic meteorites are also prepared at JSC. The meteorite thin section lab at JSC can prepare standard 30-micron thin sections, thick sections of variable thickness (100 to 200 microns), or demountable sections using superglue, all section are prepared without using water. Although many of the techniques used back in the '70's are still used today, advances in computers, software, databases, available tools and instrumentation have helped to streamline and shorten the duration of the classification process. In conjunction with present day missions to asteroids and other planets, meteorite studies have not only led to a better understanding of the complex histories of these bodies but have also tied certain meteorite groups to particular asteroid bodies. New meteorite discoveries by the ANSMET program provide a cost effective method for obtaining samples of previously unsampled bodies, allowing scientists to learn more about the origin, composition, and evolution of the solar system. Preservation in our cleanrooms at NASA allows material to be archived for future generations and advances in instrumentation and analysis.

Satterwhite, C. E.↗

Solar Sails

The Solar Sail Propulsion investment area has been one of the three highest priorities within the In-Space Propulsion Technology (ISPT) Project. In the fall of 2003, the NASA Headquarters' Science Mission Directorate provided funding and direction to mature the technology as far as possible through ground research and development from TRL 3 to 6 in three years. A group of experts from government, industry, and academia convened in Huntsville, Alabama to define technology gaps between what was needed for science missions to the inner solar system and the current state of the art in ultra1ightweight materials and gossamer structure design. This activity set the roadmap for development. The centerpiece of the development would be the ground demonstration of scalable solar sail systems including masts, sails, deployment mechanisms, and attitude control hardware and software. In addition, new materials would be subjected to anticipated space environments to quantify effects and assure mission life. Also, because solar sails are huge structures, and it is not feasible to validate the technology by ground test at full scale, a multi-discipline effort was established to develop highly reliable analytical models to serve as mission assurance evidence in future flight program decision-making. Two separate contractor teams were chosen to develop the SSP System Ground Demonstrator (SGD). After a three month conceptual mission/system design phase, the teams developed a ten meter diameter pathfinder set of hardware and subjected it to thermal vacuum tests to compare analytically predicted structural behavior with measured characteristics. This process developed manufacturing and handling techniques and refined the basic design. In 2005, both contractor teams delivered 20 meter, four quadrant sail systems to the largest thermal vacuum chamber in the world in Plum Brook, Ohio, and repeated the tests. Also demonstrated was the deployment and articulation of attitude control mechanisms. In conjunction with these tests, the stowed sails were subjected to launch vibration and ascent vent tests. Other investments studied radiation effects on the solar sail materials, investigated spacecraft charging issues, developed shape measuring techniques and instruments, produced advanced trajectory modeling capabilities, and identified and resolved gossamer structure dynamics issues. Technology validation flight and application to a He1iophysics science mission is on the horizon.

Young, Roy↗

Optimizing Solar PV Deployment in Manufacturing: A Morphological Matrix and Fuzzy TOPSIS Approach

The growing energy demand of the industrial sector and the need for sustainable solutions highlight the importance of efficient decision making in solar photovoltaic (PV) implementation. Selecting optimal PV configuration is complex due to the interdependent technical, economic, environmental, and social factors involved. This study introduces an integrated decision-making method combining a morphological matrix and fuzzy TOPSIS to systematically select and rank optimal PV system configurations for manufacturing firms. While the morphological matrix exhaustively examines possible design solutions based on sensing, smart, sustainable, and social (S4) attributes, the fuzzy TOPSIS method ranks the alternatives by handling uncertainty in decision making. A case study conducted in a Mexican manufacturing company validates the methodology’s effectiveness. The optimal PV configuration identified comprehensively addresses operational and sustainability criteria, covering all lifecycle stages. This approach demonstrates quantitative superiority and greater robustness compared to existing fuzzy TOPSIS-based methods for solar PV applications. The findings highlight the practical value of data-driven, multi-criteria decision making for industrial solar energy adoption, enhancing project feasibility, cost efficiency, and environmental compliance. Future research will incorporate discrete event simulation (DES) to further refine energy consumption strategies in manufacturing.

Briceño, Citlaly Pérez↗

Astrobiology

Astrobiology is the study of the origins, evolution and distribution of life in the universe. It provides a biological perspective to many areas of NASA research, linking such endeavors as the search for habitable planets beyond our solar system, exploration missions to Mars and Europa, and efforts to understand the origin and early evolution of life. Astrobiology addresses three fundamental questions: How does life begin and develop? Does life exist elsewhere in the universe? What is the future of life on Earth and beyond? This talk will address our concepts about the definition of life, how life might have begun, and how our blaspheme and planet have co-evolved for billions of years. The talk will explore how the perspectives gained from interdisciplinary research in the biological, geological and space sciences will prepare us to search for habitable environments and biospheres elsewhere in the Universe.

DesMarais, David↗