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DOE OSTI2016

Statistical properties of solar flares and coronal mass ejections through the solar cycle

Waiting Time Distributions (WTDs) of solar flares are investigated all through the solar cycle. The same approach applied to Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs) in a previous work is considered here for flare occurrence. Our analysis reveals that flares and CMEs share some common statistical properties, which result dependent on the level of solar activity. Both flares and CMEs seem to independently occur during minimum solar activity phases, whilst their WTDs significantly deviate from a Poisson function at solar maximum, thus suggesting that these events are correlated. The characteristics of WTDs are constrained by the physical processes generating those eruptions associated with flares and CMEs. A scenario may be drawn in which different mechanisms are actively at work during different phases of the solar cycle. Stochastic processes, most likely related to random magnetic reconnections of the field lines, seem to play a key role during solar minimum periods. On the other hand, persistent processes, like sympathetic eruptions associated to the variability of the photospheric magnetism, are suggested to dominate during periods of high solar activity. Moreover, despite the similar statistical properties shown by flares and CMEs, as it was mentioned above, their WTDs appear different in some aspects. During solar minimum periods, the flare occurrence randomness seems to be more evident than for CMEs. Those persistent mechanisms generating interdependent events during maximum periods of solar activity can be suggested to play a more important role for CMEs than for flares, thus mitigating the competitive action of the random processes, which seem instead strong enough to weaken the correlations among flare event occurrence during solar minimum periods. However, it cannot be excluded that the physical processes at the basis of the origin of the temporal correlation between solar events are different for flares and CMEs, or that, more likely, more sophisticated effects are at work at the same time leading to an even more complex picture. This work represents a first step for further investigations.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗

NASA NTRS2007

Long-term Average Spectral and Spatial Distributions of Plasmaspheric Hiss Observed by the Akebono and IMAGE Satellites

The radiation belt slot region is known to result from losses of energetic electrons by enhanced pitch-angle scattering by whistler mode waves associated with plasmaspheric hiss emission. The distributions of whistler mode waves in the slot L range are therefore important for understanding the electron radiation belt. The sources and distributions of the waves are, however, still controversial. In the present study, using the Akebono/MCA data [1989-20051 and the IMAGE/RPI data [2000-20051, we have constructed the average plasmaspheric hiss spectral distributions over a broad frequency range. In addition, we have investigated the spatial distributions of plasmaspheric hiss with the wave map technique [Green et a1.(2005)]. Our study shows that the broadband plasmaspheric hiss are distributed in the frequency range of 100Hz to several kHz, and exhibit a broad intensive peak. The frequency of the intensity peak tends to increase with magnetic latitude. The frequencies of the most intense waves in the nominal slot L range (2<3) during quiet times (Dst>-50nT) are found to be between 300Hz and 600Hz on average. During high storm activity (Dst <-150nT), however, the peak frequencies become slightly lower. The intensity of plasmaspheric hiss clearly depends on substorm activity as measured by the AE index, consistent with Meredith et a1.(2004). The hiss wave intensity maps also show a strong local time asymmetry. The large amplitude waves are observed at 6:OO-19:OO MLT. From our extensive analysis, we have also found an L dependence of hiss activity, with the larger amplitude waves being observed at lower L during substorm active conditions. The same tendency can be found for solar activity. The average intensities of the waves during 1989-1991 and 2000-2001 are a few dB larger than those during 1992-1997 and 2005. The most intense waves are observed at lower L during high solar activity. The statistical study on spectrum features of the plasmaspheric hiss together with the spatial distribution show clear dependences of storm, substorm and solar activities.

Fung, Shing↗

NASA NTRS1993

The Venus atmospheric response to solar cycle variations

Atmospheric drag measurements from the orbital decay of the Pioneer Venus Orbiter and Magellan spacecraft have recently been obtained of the Venus dayside and nightside atmosphere between 130 and 210 km during a period of low solar activity. These new measurements, combined with the earlier Pioneer Venus drag measurements (1978-80) obtained near the maximum of the 11-year solar cycle, have allowed the detection of the detailed response of temperature, atomic oxygen and carbon dioxide to solar variations. We have found a weak but detectable temperature response on the dayside which is in accord with the response predicted by Keating and Bougher when they assumed very strong CO2 radiative cooling resulting from atomic oxygen exciting CO2 into 15 micron emission. This same radiative process may cause strong cooling in the Earth's upper atmosphere with the doubling of CO2 in the future. With decreasing solar activity, the O/CO2 ratio in the lower thermosphere is found to decrease, apparently due to decreased photodissociation of CO2 and lower temperatures. The percent decrease in atomic oxygen with decreasing solar activity on the dayside is found to be approximately the same as the percent decreases of atomic oxygen transported to the nightside. A very weak response of nightside temperatures to solar activity variations has also been detected.

Keating, Gerald M.↗

NASA NTRS1993

The Venus Atmospheric Response to Solar Cycle Variations

Keating, Gerald M.↗

NASA NTRS1995

Merged interaction regions and large-scale fluctuations observed by the Voyager 2 in the distant heliosphere

The merged interaction regions (MIRs) and large-scale fluctuations of the heliospheric magnetic field play a major role in the dynamics of the solar wind, the position and motion of the termination shock and heliopause, the triggering of radio emissions, and the modulation of cosmic rays. The structure of MIRs and large-scale fluctuations varies with distance from the sun and with solar activity. Here we compare Voyager 2 observations near the maximum of solar activity (1989 through 1991) with those during the declining phase of solar activity (1992 thorough 1994). Global MIRs with strong magnetic fields, preceded by a strong shock, were observed near solar maximum. During the declining phase of the solar cycle, the MIRs had significantly weaker magnetic fields. In both cases the pickup protons, identified by an analysis of pressure balanced structures, play a major role in the dynamical evolution of the MIRs beyond 30 AU. The large-scale magnetic field fluctuations have significantly greater amplitudes near solar maximum than during the declining phase of the solar cycle.

Burlaga, L. F.↗

DOE OSTI2018

Evolution of the Solar Wind Speed with Heliocentric Distance and Solar Cycle. Surprises from Ulysses and Unexpectedness from Observations of the Solar Corona

An extensive analysis of Ulysses observations of the solar wind speed V from 1990 to 2008 is undertaken. It is shown that the evolution of V with heliocentric distance r depends substantially on both the heliolatitude and the solar activity cycle. Deviations from the predicted Parker’s profile of V(r) are so considerable that cannot be explained by a scarcity of measurements or other technical effects. In particular, the expected smooth growth of the solar wind speed with r is typical only for the solar activity maximum and for low heliolatitudes (lower than ±40°), while at high latitudes, there are two V(r) branches: growing and falling. In the solar activity maximum, V increases toward the solar pole in the North hemisphere only; however, in the South hemisphere, it decreases with heliolatitude. In the minimum of solar activity, the profile of V(r) at low heliolatitudes has a local minimum between 2 and 5 AU. This result is confirmed by the corresponding data from other spacecraft (Voyager 1 and Pioneer 10). Unexpected spatial variations in V at low heliolatitudes can be explained by the impact of coronal hole flows on the V(r) profile since the flows incline to the ecliptic plane. To reproduce the impact of spatial variations of V in the polar corona on the behavior of V at low heliolatitudes, a stationary one-fluid ideal MHD-model is developed with account of recent results on imagery of the solar wind speed in the corona up to 5.5 solar radii obtained on the basis of combined observations from SOHO/UVCS, LASCO, and Mauna Loa.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

NASA NTRS1992

Concerning solar sources for Cycle 22 solar wind activity in the heliosphere

Beginning in 1989, the active phase of the present solar cycle became manifest in the outer heliosphere as large disturbances in solar wind velocity as observed by the Ames plasma analyzers aboard Pioneer 10 (46-50 AU heliocentric distance) and Pioneer 11 (about 28 AU). Inner heliospheric baseline plasma observations from the Pioneer Venus Orbiter (0.7 AU) and IMP 8 (1 AU) are useful for attempts to correlate solar events with the outer heliospheric disturbances. With regard to the onset of activity at Pioneer 11, Pioneer Venus observations are pertinent, and some of these in turn correspond with CMEs (coronal mass ejections) observed in SMM coronagraph data. In particular, enhanced solar wind speeds observed at Pioneer Venus during December 1988 to February 1989 are associated with seven large solar wind shocks (or shock candidates); corresponding CMEs may be identified. Two of these seven shocks were identified as candidates for a precursor to the onset of the disturbances at Pioneer 11. At Pioneer 10 the disturbed period includes two large disturbances, associated with the passage of shocks. There are several candidate CMEs in the SMM observations, one of which may be associated with the second Pioneer 10 shock.

Mihalov, J. D.↗

NASA NTRS1993

Solar cycle variation of interplanetary disturbances observed as Doppler scintillation transients

Interplanetary disturbances characterized by plasma that is more turbulence and/or moves faster than the background solar wind are readily defected as transients in Doppler scintillation measurements of the near-Sun solar wind. Systematic analysis of over 23,000 hours of Pioneer Venus Orbiter Doppler measurements obtained inside 0.5 AU during 1979-1987 have made it possible for the first time to investigate the frequency of occurrence of Doppler scintillation transients under solar minimum conditions and to determine its dependence on solar cycle. On the basis of a total of 142 transients, Doppler scintillation transient rates vary from a high of 0.22 in 1979 (one every 4.6 days) to a low of 0.077 transients/d in 1986 (one every 13 days), a decrease by almost a factor of 3 from solar maximum to solar minimum. This solar cycle variation, the strongest yet of any solar wind Doppler scintillation property, is highly correlated with both solar activity characterized by sunspot number and the coronal mass ejection rates deduced from Solswind and Solar Maximum Mission (SMM) coronagraph observations. These results indicate that coronal mass ejections and Doppler scintillation transients are closely related not just during solar maximum, as occasional individual comparisons have shown in the past, but throughout the entire solar cycle, and strengthen the notation that the Doppler scintillation and optical transients are different manifestations of the same physical phenomenon. The magnitudes of the transients, as described by the ratio of peak to pretransient scintillation levels (EF for enhancement factor), and their distribution iwth heliocentric distance also vary with solar cycle. While EF tends to diminish with increasing heliocentric distance during high solar activity, it is more evenly distributed during low solar activity. EF is also lower during solar minimum, as 13% of the transients during solar maximum have values exceeding 23, the highest EF observed during solar minimum. These results are consistent with the fact that occasional major fast-moving interplanetary shocks that are observed during solar maximum are very rate during solar minimum.

Woo, Richard↗

NASA NTRS1989

Atmospheric drag model calibrations for spacecraft lifetime prediction

Although solar activity prediction uncertainty normally dominates decay prediction error budget for near-Earth spacecraft, the effect of drag force modeling errors for given levels of solar activity needs to be considered. Two atmospheric density models, the modified Harris-Priester model and the Jacchia-Roberts model, to reproduce the decay histories of the Solar Mesosphere Explorer (SME) and Solar Maximum Mission (SMM) spacecraft in the 490- to 540-kilometer altitude range were analyzed. Historical solar activity data were used in the input to the density computations. For each spacecraft and atmospheric model, a drag scaling adjustment factor was determined for a high-solar-activity year, such that the observed annual decay in the mean semimajor axis was reproduced by an averaged variation-of-parameters (VOP) orbit propagation. The SME (SMM) calibration was performed using calendar year 1983 (1982). The resulting calibration factors differ by 20 to 40 percent from the predictions of the prelaunch ballistic coefficients. The orbit propagations for each spacecraft were extended to the middle of 1988 using the calibrated drag models. For the Jaccia-Roberts density model, the observed decay in the mean semimajor axis of SME (SMM) over the 4.5-year (5.5-year) predictive period was reproduced to within 1.5 (4.4) percent. The corresponding figure for the Harris-Priester model was 8.6 (20.6) percent. Detailed results and conclusions regarding the importance of accurate drag force modeling for lifetime predictions are presented.

Binebrink, A. L.↗

NASA NTRS2011

The Sun, Its Extended Corona, the Interplanetary Space, the Earth's Magnetosphere, Ionosphere, Middle and Low Atmosphere, are All Parts of a Complex System - the Heliosphere

Various manifestations of solar activity cause disturbances known as space weather effects in the interplanetary space, near-Earth environment, and all the Earth's "spheres. Longterm variations in the frequency, intensity and relative importance of the manifestations of solar activity are due to the slow changes in the output of the solar dynamo, and they define space climate. Space climate governs long-term variations in geomagnetic activity and is the primary natural driver of terrestrial climate. To understand how the variable solar activity affects the Earth's environment, geomagnetic activity and climate on both short and long time scales, we need to understand the origins of solar activity itself and its different manifestations, as well as the sequence of coupling processes linking various parts of the system. This session provides a forum to discuss the chain of processes and relations from the Sun to the Earth's surface: the origin and long-term and short-term evolution of solar activity, initiation and temporal variations in solar flares, CMEs, coronal holes, the solar wind and its interaction with the terrestrial magnetosphere, the ionosphere and its connection to the neutral dominated regions below and the plasma dominated regions above, the stratosphere, its variations due to the changing solar activity and its interactions with the underlying troposphere, and the mechanisms of solar influences on the lower atmosphere on different time-scales. Particularly welcome are papers highlighting the coupling processes between the different domains in this complex system.

Gopalswamy, Natchimuthuk↗

NASA NTRS2014

On the Relationship Between Global Land-Ocean Temperature and Various Descriptors of Solar-Geomagnetic Activity and Climate

Examined are sunspot cycle- (SC-) length averages of the annual January-December values of the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index ( ) in relation to SC-length averages of annual values of various descriptors of solar-geomagnetic activity and climate, incorporating lags of 0-5 yr. For the overall interval SC12-SC23, the is inferred to correlate best against the parameter incorporating lag = 5 yr, where the parameter refers to the resultant aa value having removed that portion of the annual aa average value due to the yearly variation of sunspot number (SSN). The inferred correlation between the and is statistically important at confidence level cl > 99.9%, having a coefficient of linear correlation r = 0.865 and standard error of estimate se = 0.149 degC. Excluding the most recent cycles SC22 and SC23, the inferred correlation is stronger, having r = 0.969 and se = 0.048 degC. With respect to the overall trend in the , which has been upwards towards warmer temperatures since SC12 (1878-1888), solar-geomagnetic activity parameters are now trending downwards (since SC19). For SC20-SC23, in contrast, comparison of the against SC-length averages of the annual value of the Mauna Loa carbon dioxide ( ) index is found to be highly statistically important (cl >> 99.9%), having r = 0.9994 and se = 0.012 degC for lag = 2 yr. On the basis of the inferred preferential linear correlation between the and , the current ongoing SC24 is inferred to have warmer than was seen in SC23 (i.e., >0.526 degC), probably in excess of 0.68 degC (relative to the 1951-1980 base period).

Wilson, Robert M.↗

NASA NTRS1984

Solar Total Irradiance Variability Measurements by the SMM/ACRIM I Experiment

Convincing evidence of solar total irradiance variability and its relationships with solar activity was provided by the Active Cavity Radiometer Irradiance Monitor I (ACRIM I) experiment on the NASA Solar Maximum Mission (SMM). SMM/ACRIM I, the first flight experiment dedicated to the task of solar irradiance monitoring, has produced a multiyear solar total irradiance data base with + or - 0.02% or better long term precision since its launch in February, 1980. While the climatological significance of the results will not be apparent until many more years of continuous data are acquired, the discovery of variability on solar active region time scales has provided new insight into the physics of solar activity in the early years of the mission.

Willson, R. C.↗

NASA NTRS1978

Dependence of geomagnetic activity on solar wind parameters - A statistical approach

A statistical analysis of a large body of data is used to give a visual representation of the relative influence of each solar wind/IMF parameter on geomagnetic activity. In addition an attempt is made to determine whether geomagnetic indices differ in their response to various solar wind/IMF parameters and to discuss the physical implications of these differences. It is recommended that ample care should be taken about what kind of geomagnetic index is to be used.

Maezawa, K.↗

NASA NTRS1993

The limiting primary rigidity of cosmic ray diurnal anisotropy

Our calculations of the upper cutoff primary rigidity (Rc), applicable to the solar diurnal anisotropy, have been extended to cover the declining phase of the solar activity cycle 21. The calculated values of Rc now encompass a complete solar magnetic cycle (1965-1987). We found that the values of Rc were very large for the 1982-1985 period, almost twice as large as those observed previously for the periods of maximum solar activity. The largest value occurred in 1983. Also, the value obtained at the solar activity minimum year of 1986 was about twice as large as that obtained in 1965. Our results are compared with those reported by others.

Ahluwalia, H. S.↗

NASA NTRS1977

Annual variation in temperature and composition of the thermosphere and upper mesosphere

A three-dimensional circulation model, including UV (O2 dissociation) and EUV sources, is used to study the wind field and the effects of temperature and composition on annual thermospheric variations. The results are compared to those of OGO-6 and AE-C. Within an 800-1200 K temperature range, summer to winter temperature variation is studied as a function of solar activity. It is found that the model correctly predicts H, He, O, N2, O2, and Ar measurements. It is suggested that a small winter maximum in mesospheric temperature is caused by large-scale circulation induced by EUV heating. This effect, however, is masked by the energy released in O2 dissociation. The annual temperature amplitude and the winter oxygen bulge are noted to increase with increasing solar activity, whereas the winter helium bulge is noted to decrease with enhanced exospheric return flow. It is felt that the dependence of the F2 region winter anomaly on solar activity may be significantly affected by the solar activity effect in atomic oxygen.

Mayr, H. G.↗

NASA NTRS1984

Solar influence on terrestrial weather and global lightning patterns via cosmic ray modulations

A series of cosmic ray neutron monitor data which were used in three analyses: (1) solar activity influence on ionization of the upper troposphere and tropopause; (2) solar activity influence on Canadian high stratus in winter; and (3) the S3-4 satellite study of IMF/GMF magnetic coupling effects are reported. The magnetic coupling model of solar activity influence on atmospheric processes were investigated. The magnetic coupling model is used to explain a number of seemingly diverse studies lightning incidence is emphasized.

Ely, J. T. A.↗

NASA NTRS2014

The Sunspot Record: 1826-1980

The International Sunspot Number is used as a measure of the level of solar activity in many important studies. This includes studies of the effects of solar activity on climate change and on the generation of radioisotopes used to infer levels of solar activity going back thousands of years. Any systematic errors in the historical record of the sunspot number can profoundly alter the conclusions of these studies. There is substantial evidence that the currently accepted International Sunspot Numbers have been subjected to changes in the way the numbers are calculated and to changes in the weights given to observations of various observers. In this talk I will focus on the time period from 1826 to 1980 which covers principal observers Schwabe, Wolf, Wolfer, Brunner, and Waldmeier. Previous investigations have indicated problems associated with Schwabe's observations (1826 to 1867), the first decades of the Greenwich observations (1874 to about 1910), and the introduction of a different counting method by Waldmeier (1946-1980). I will examine the evidence for these problems and the possible solutions that might be used to provide improved estimates of the sunspot numbers and their errors over this time interval.

Hathaway, David H.↗

NASA NTRS1977

Skylab ATM/S-056 X-ray event analyzer observations versus solar flare activity: An event compilation

An event compilation is presented which correlates ATM/S-056 X-ray event analyzer solar observations with solar flare activity. Approximately 1,070 h of pulse height analyzed X-ray proportional counter data were obtained with the X-ray event analyzer during Skylab. During its operation, 449 flares (including 343 flare peaks) were observed. Seventy events of peak X-ray emission or = Cl were simultaneously observed by ground based telescopes, SOLRAD 9 and/or Vela, and the X-ray event analyzer. These events were observed from preflare through flare rise to peak and through flare decline.

Wilson, R. M.↗