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Addressing delayed case reporting in infectious disease forecast modeling

Infectious disease forecasting is of great interest to the public health community and policymakers, since forecasts can provide insight into disease dynamics in the near future and inform interventions. Due to delays in case reporting, however, forecasting models may often underestimate the current and future disease burden. In this paper, we propose a general framework for addressing reporting delay in disease forecasting efforts with the goal of improving forecasts. We propose strategies for leveraging either historical data on case reporting or external internet-based data to estimate the amount of reporting error. We then describe several approaches for adapting general forecasting pipelines to account for under- or over-reporting of cases. We apply these methods to address reporting delay in data on dengue fever cases in Puerto Rico from 1990 to 2009 and to reports of influenza-like illness (ILI) in the United States between 2010 and 2019. Through a simulation study, we compare method performance and evaluate robustness to assumption violations. Our results show that forecasting accuracy and prediction coverage almost always increase when correction methods are implemented to address reporting delay. Some of these methods required knowledge about the reporting error or high quality external data, which may not always be available. Provided alternatives include excluding recently-reported data and performing sensitivity analysis. This work provides intuition and guidance for handling delay in disease case reporting and may serve as a useful resource to inform practical infectious disease forecasting efforts.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Penetration through Slots in Cylindrical Cavities Operating at Fundamental Cavity Modes in the Presence of Electromagnetic Absorbers

Placing microwave absorbing materials into a high-quality factor resonant cavity may in general reduce the large interior electromagnetic fields excited under external illumination. In this study, we aim to combine two analytical models we previously developed: 1) an unmatched formulation for frequencies below the slot resonance to model shielding effectiveness versus frequency; and 2) a perturbation model approach to estimate the quality factor of cavities in the presence of absorbers. The resulting model realizes a toolkit with which design guidelines of the absorber's properties and location can be optimized over a frequency band. Analytic predictions of shielding effectiveness for three transverse magnetic modes for various locations of the absorber placed on the inside cavity wall show good agreement with both full-wave simulations and experiments, and validate the proposed model. This analysis opens new avenues for specialized ways to mitigate harmful fields within cavities.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Efficient Probabilistic Prediction and Uncertainty Quantification of Tropical Cyclone–Driven Storm Tides and Inundation

Abstract This study proposes and assesses a methodology to obtain high-quality probabilistic predictions and uncertainty information of near-landfall tropical cyclone–driven (TC-driven) storm tide and inundation with limited time and resources. Forecasts of TC track, intensity, and size are perturbed according to quasi-random Korobov sequences of historical forecast errors with assumed Gaussian and uniform statistical distributions. These perturbations are run in an ensemble of hydrodynamic storm tide model simulations. The resulting set of maximum water surface elevations are dimensionality reduced using Karhunen–Loève expansions and then used as a training set to develop a polynomial chaos (PC) surrogate model from which global sensitivities and probabilistic predictions can be extracted. The maximum water surface elevation is extrapolated over dry points incorporating energy head loss with distance to properly train the surrogate for predicting inundation. We find that the surrogate constructed with third-order PCs using elastic net penalized regression with leave-one-out cross validation provides the most robust fit across training and test sets. Probabilistic predictions of maximum water surface elevation and inundation area by the surrogate model at 48-h lead time for three past U.S. landfalling hurricanes (Irma in 2017, Florence in 2018, and Laura in 2020) are found to be reliable when compared to best track hindcast simulation results, even when trained with as few as 19 samples. The maximum water surface elevation is most sensitive to perpendicular track-offset errors for all three storms. Laura is also highly sensitive to storm size and has the least reliable prediction. Significance Statement The purpose of this study is to develop and evaluate a methodology that can be used to provide high-quality probabilistic predictions of hurricane-induced storm tide and inundation with limited time and resources. This is important for emergency management purposes during or after the landfall of hurricanes. Our results show that sampling forecast errors using quasi-random sequences combined with machine learning techniques that fit polynomial functions to the data are well suited to this task. The polynomial functions also have the benefit of producing exact sensitivity indices of storm tide and inundation to the forecasted hurricane properties such as path, intensity, and size, which can be used for uncertainty estimation. The code implementing the presented methodology is publicly available on GitHub.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Hybrid geological modeling: Combining machine learning and multiple-point statistics

Accurately modeling and constructing a geologically realistic subsurface model remains an outstanding problem as the morphology controls the flow behaviors. Particularly, one of the pattern-based methods, namely cross-correlation based simulation, has been proved to be an effective way to reconstruct a realistic model, at both small and large scales. However, conditioning to point data in the large-scale problems is still a crucial issue in these algorithms, since there is always a trade-off between the quality of the realizations and the degree of point data reproduction. Specifically, it is not practical to build a training image (TI) which includes all the possibilities and variabilities. Therefore, finding a pattern that can represent the point data and, at the same time, preserving the connectivities is difficult. This leads to producing highly-connected realizations with a significant mismatch or poor models with a reasonable degree of point data reproduction. To accurately reproduce the densely distributed hard data, pixel-based methods can also produce some unrealistic artifacts around the hard data. In this paper, to overcome this challenge, however, we use pattern-based methods as they often produce more disconnected geobodies when dealing with dense hard data, and proposed a hybrid algorithm using the pattern-based methods and convolutional neural network (CNN). The trained CNN model is utilized to improve the quality of conditioning to point data for the original realizations generated by the pattern-based algorithm. As such, the mismatch locations are identified, and the same regions are used in the training of CNN to mimic the procedure through which a missing region can be filled. To evaluate the performance of the proposed hybrid algorithm, it is tested on cases with different dimensions and different numbers of facies. Then, the newly improved realizations are compared with the initial realizations generated by the pattern-based algorithm. The comparison is also conducted by the flow simulation test. And it indicates that the proposed hybrid algorithm can better reproduce the point data, while the connectivities are better preserved.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Plasma Photocathodes

Abstract Plasma wakefield accelerators offer accelerating and focusing electric fields three to four orders of magnitude larger than state‐of‐the‐art radiofrequency cavity‐based accelerators. Plasma photocathodes can release ultracold electron populations within such plasma waves and thus open a path toward tunable production of well‐defined, compact electron beams with normalized emittance and brightness many orders of magnitude better than state‐of‐the‐art. Such beams will have far‐reaching impact for applications such as light sources, but also open up new vistas on high energy and high field physics. This paper reviews the innovation of plasma photocathodes, and reports on the experimental progress, challenges, and future prospects of the approach. Details of the proof‐of‐concept demonstration of a plasma photocathode in 90° geometry at SLAC FACET within the E‐210: Trojan Horse program are described. Using this experience, alongside theoretical and simulation‐supported advances, an outlook is given on future realizations of plasma photocathodes such as the upcoming E‐310: Trojan Horse‐II program at FACET‐II with prospects toward excellent witness beam parameter quality, tunability, and stability. Future installations of plasma photocathodes also at compact, hybrid plasma wakefield accelerators, will then boost capacities and open up novel capabilities for experiments at the forefront of interaction of high brightness electron and photon beams.

Habib, Ahmad Fahim↗

Efficient 3D Molecular Design with an E(3) Invariant Transformer VAE

This work introduces a three-dimensional (3D) invariant graph-to-string transformer variational autoencoders (VAE) (Vagrant) for generating molecules with accurate density functional theory (DFT)-level properties. Vagrant learns to model the joint probability distribution of a 3D molecular structure and its properties by encoding molecular structures into a 3D-aware latent space. Directed navigation through this latent space implicitly optimizes the 3D structure of a molecule, and the latent embedding can be used to condition a generative transformer to predict the candidate structure as a one-dimensional (1D) sequence. Additionally, we introduce two novel sampling methods that exploit the latent characteristics of a VAE to improve performance. Here, we show that our method outperforms comparable 3D autoregressive and diffusion methods for predicting quantum chemical property values of novel molecules in terms of both sample quality and computational efficiency.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Thermal disorder and phonon softening in the ferroelectric phase transition of lead titanate

We report a molecular dynamics study of ab initio quality of the ferroelectric phase transition in crystalline PbTi⁢O3. We model anharmonicity accurately in terms of potential energy and polarization surfaces trained on density functional theory data with modern machine learning techniques. Our simulations demonstrate that the transition has a strong order-disorder character, in agreement with diffraction experiments, and provide fresh insight into the approach to equilibrium across the phase transition. We find that the emergence and disappearance of the macroscopic polarization is driven by dipolar switching at the nanometer scale. We also computed the infrared optical absorption spectra in both the ferroelectric and the paraelectric phases, finding good agreement with the experimental Raman frequencies. Often, the almost ideal displacive character of the soft mode detected by Raman scattering in the paraelectric phase has been contrasted with the order-disorder character of the transition suggested by diffraction experiments. We settle this issue by showing that the soft mode coexists with a strong Debye relaxation associated with thermal disordering of the dipoles. The Debye relaxation feature is centered at zero frequency and appears near the transition temperature in both the ferroelectric and the paraelectric phases.

75 CONDENSED MATTER PHYSICS, SUPERCONDUCTIVITY AND↗

Embedding Sensors in 3D Printed Metal Structures

The Transformational Challenge Reactor (TCR) program is leveraging recent advances in modeling and simulation, materials, and additive manufacturing (AM) technologies to design a modern nuclear reactor. Some of the main TCR technologies include in situ monitoring and the integration of sensors during the manufacturing of quality-significant nuclear reactor components. This report describes the general procedure and process optimization for embedding sensors within generic stainless steel 316 (SS316) components using laser powder bed fusion (LPBF). A more detailed, quality-significant test plan and supporting procedures are available upon request (ORNL/TM-2021/2127). LPBF involves the use of a scanning laser to selectively melt regions of a powder bed, additively building a part layer by layer. This report describes the LPBF processing technique and discusses the effects of LPBF processing parameters on the success of the sensor embedding process. Experiments used machined cavities in the form of channels in an SS316 base for the sensors to lay in while material is additively built over the top, thereby embedding them in an SS316 matrix. A preliminary investigation involved using empty SS316 sheaths as surrogates to explore the effects of various LPBF processing parameters and the dimensional requirements of the machined channels. Microstructural investigations showed that a smaller channel width/depth combination closer to the sensor’s diameter was best for the embedding process. After the desired parameters were selected, Type-K thermocouples were embedded and evaluated post-embedding using nondestructive thermal testing, as well as destructive sectioning and microscopy. Post-build characterization showed that the thermocouples were well-bonded to the SS316 matrix and were fully functional after embedding. During thermal testing to temperatures up to 500 °C, the embedded thermocouples read consistently with one another and deviated only slightly from the readings of a nonembedded thermocouple located within the furnace. This slight discrepancy was most likely due to differences in the thermal time constants for a nonembedded thermocouple vs. a thermocouple embedded in a solid SS316 block. The results presented in this report will serve as the foundation for future work that will focus on embedding sensors in relevant TCR reactor components and eventually testing those components under neutron irradiation.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Integrated Computational Materials and Mechanical Modeling for Additive Manufacturing of Alloys with Graded Structure Used in Fossil Fuel Power Plants

Wire-arc additive manufacturing (WAAM) has demonstrated its unique capability of producing large-size alloy components with a significantly reduced fabrication time and enhanced geometry design freedom. In this project, the team has developed an ICME (Integrated Computational Materials Engineering) modeling framework, which supports the WAAM of the AUSC (Advanced Ultra-Supercritical) power plant components. The manufacturing design has been applied to Inconel 740H, steel P91, as well as the dissimilar alloy components between steel P91 and Inconel 740H. The ICME model framework is developed by considering two types of modeling. First, mechanistic modeling has been applied to control the printing quality and understand the sequence of the dissimilar printing of the wall structure. The following models have been included in the developed ICME framework: finite element thermal model, grain structure model, residual stress simulation, crystal plasticity model, CALPHAD-based precipitation kinetic model, phase stability prediction, thermal expansion predictive model, and heuristic creep model. Secondary, a physics-based machine learning model has also been developed based on the ICME model structure. The machine learning model development is based on the ICME model prediction with calibration of the experiments. In addition, the WAAM has been utilized as a high-throughput experimental tool rapidly generating a gradient of alloy composition to facilitate experimental database generation for process-structure-property relationships. Such a database directly supported the ICME-enhanced machine learning, which further assisted in intermediate composition block design between P91 and 740H. A high-throughput screening study of the oxidation resistance has been performed based on such high-throughput experimentation. Based on the computational design, several dissimilar alloy manufacturing with post-heat treatment have been performed with a comprehensive evaluation of mechanical performance, including hardness mapping, yield strength, creep resistance. In this project, the single component of P91 and 740H processed by WAAM after heat treatment designed by ICME has demonstrated higher performance in yield strength and creep resistance than the wrought materials. The P91 sample prepared by WAAM with ICME-designed heat treatment performs better than P92 in creep resistance. The designed graded alloy printing with intermediate block shows a promising performance that exceeds the traditional welding. Moreover, the current research indicates the high need for location-specific design analysis with uncertainty quantification, an important topic that deserves more dedicated research. The achievement of this project demonstrated the promising future of WAAM in structural alloy manufacturing for energy power plant development. Successful printing requires synergetic efforts made by manufacturing, mechanical, and materials sciences.

20 FOSSIL-FUELED POWER PLANTS↗

Distribution of Infiltration in the 216-U-10 and 216-B-3 Pond Systems 1944-1997

A modeling system to simulate fate and transport of contaminant plumes in groundwater beneath the Central Plateau to support the Cumulative Impact Evaluation (CIE) and Composite Analysis (CA) is being developed. The CIE will evaluate the cumulative effect of multiple Central Plateau radiological and chemical sources on groundwater quality (DOE/RL-2018-69, Cumulative Impact Evaluation Technical Approach Document ). This will enable cleanup decisions to be evaluated in the context of all Central Plateau waste sites and existing groundwater conditions. The CA evaluates the cumulative effect of all sources of radioactive materials on radiological dose to future members of the public (DOE/RL-2018-60, Annual Status Report (FY 2018): Composite Analysis of Low Level Waste Disposal in the Central Plateau of the Hanford Site ). Fate and transport modeling will be used to forecast future groundwater concentrations for both the CIE and CA. The CIE/CA subsurface modeling system is divided into source (inventory), vadose zone, and saturated zone facets. Source inventory is a necessary input to the vadose zone facet, and releases from the vadose zone to groundwater are inputs to the saturated zone facet. The vadose zone facet simulates historical and future releases from the vadose zone to groundwater for both liquid waste and solid waste disposal sites. Effluent release volumes and radionuclide inventory estimates for liquid waste sites are contained in ECFHANFORD- 17-0079, Hanford Soil Inventory Model (SIM-v2) Calculated Radionuclide Inventory of Direct Liquid Discharges to Soil in the Hanford Site’s 200 Areas , herein referred to as SIM-v2. The liquid waste sites in SIM-v2 include the 216-B-3 Pond near 200 East Area and the 216-U-10 Pond in 200 West Area. The 216-B-3 Pond system consisted of a main pond and 3 expansion lobes that were operational during overlapping time periods. It also included influent ditches, but these are not listed as liquid waste sources in SIM-v2 and are not included in the CIE/CA modeling. The total effluent volume released to the pond system was measured, but the partitioning of this volume to the various expansion lobes was not determined and is not accounted for in SIM-v2. Regarding the 216-U-10 Pond, it received water from several influent ditches. The pond and the influent ditches are listed as liquid waste sites in SIM-v2 and are included as sources in the CIE/CA modeling. Because water in the ditches flowed into the pond, only a portion of the effluent volumes and contaminant inventories assigned to the ditches in SIM-v2 infiltrated from the ditches. Thus, partitioning of infiltration and contaminant inventories between the ditches and the pond is not fully accounted for in SIM-v2. Further, some of the water in the 216-U-10 Pond entered overflow ditches and the amount of this overflow was not recorded and is not accounted for in SIM-v2. Thus, the purpose of this Environmental Calculation File (ECF) is to partition the infiltration of wastewater and contaminant inventory between the main pond and each expansion lobe of the 216-B-3 Pond system, and to partition the infiltration of wastewater and contaminant inventory between the ditches and pond of the 216-U-10 Pond system.

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

Electron Cloud Simulations for the Electron-Ion Collider in Brookhaven National Laboratory

For high-intensity circular accelerators and storage rings, if the secondary electron emission yield (SEY) of the vacuum chamber surfaces is high, an EC (Electron Cloud) could build up with the passage of the circulating beam. The presence of EC can strongly affect the beam quality, such as transverse instabilities, transverse emittance growth, and beam loss. Furthermore, the heat load from EC can exceed the available cryogenic capability. For the RHIC superconducting (SC) arc magnets, to be used for the hadron storage ring of the Electron-Ion Collider (EIC), the dynamic heat load budget is 0.5 W/m to the 4.5 K stainless steel beam pipe. This can limit the maximum beam bunches or intensity of the EIC, hence diminishing the luminosity provided by the EIC. The EC has affected the beam instability and significantly contributed to cryogenic heat load in the Large Hadron Collider (LHC). Positron storage rings for which ECs have been a critical factor in the design and performance include KEKB in Japan and EC buildup remains one of the concerns for future high-intensity accelerators design. EC considerations have driven the SuperKEKB collider design and the positron damping ring for the proposed International Linear Collider (ILC). The LHC luminosity upgrade is contingent on reducing the bunch spacing to 25 ns; at this bunch spacing, severe EC buildup has been observed. The success of the upgrade is likely contingent on limiting EC buildup. To study the EC heat load, we did some EC simulations with PyECLOUD code for the dipole, quadrupole, sextupole magnets, and the warm (drift) section of the EIC hadron storage ring. PyECLOUD is an EC simulation code developed by CERN. The code has been validated and used to study EC in the LHC, SPS, and PS. To eliminate EC buildup, the sources of electrons must be minimized. First, we will reduce the production of electrons due to residual gas ionization by specifying the maximum gas density, which requires a vacuum chamber with low electron-stimulated desorption (ESD) yields and a sufficient (preferably distributed) pumping speed. Second, we should reduce the secondary electrons with a lower secondary electron yield (SEY) material.

43 PARTICLE ACCELERATORS↗

Effect of Particle Spreading Dynamics on Powder Bed Quality in Metal Additive Manufacturing

Powder spreading precedes creation of every new layer in powder bed additive manufacturing (AM). The powder spreading process can lead to powder layer defects such as porosity, poor surface roughness and particle segregation. Therefore, the creation of homogeneous layers is the first task for optimal part printing. Discrete element methods (DEM) powder spreading simulations are typically limited to a single layer and/or small number of particles. Therefore, results from such model configurations may not be generalized to multiple layer processes. In this study, a computationally efficient multi-layer powder spreading DEM simulation model is proposed. The model is calibrated experimentally using static Angle of Repose measurements. The adhesion model parameter, cohesive energy density is related to adhesive surface energy and strain energy release rate parameters. The model results show that interaction between particle and the powder spreading rake leads to noticeable variation in packing density, surface roughness, dynamic angle of repose (AOR), particle size distribution, and particle segregation. Finally, the powder model is experimentally validated using a recoater spreading rig to measure the dynamic AOR at spreading speeds consistent with recoating speeds and layer heights used in AM processes.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

High Quality Doping of GaN Through Transmutation Processing

This project led to several outstanding achievements: - Computational modeling of nuclear reactions, including estimates of the production ratio and doping concentration using TALYS 1.96 based on nuclear reactions in GaN induced by gamma-ray and protons. For photonuclear transmutation doping, simulations proved that Zn/Ge ratio with 40 MeV is higher than the other energies. - Proton transmutation doping was shown to be a potential nuclear source to fabricate p-type gallium-based semiconductor materials, examined during new irradiations with Oak Ridge National Laboratory and Brookhaven National Laboratory (in 200 MeV H - –Linac). - Patent disclosure to the University of Missouri-Columbia about healing effects in GaN by radiations. - Zn-doped p-type GaN through photonuclear transmutation doping process. - The PIs made an oral presentation on the p-type characteristics of Zn-doped GaN at the Materials Research Society Fall meeting in Boston. - The last irradiation process was in progress in collaboration with Argonne National Laboratory.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Workshop on Addressing Rigor and Reproducibility in Thermal, Heterogeneous Catalysis

Heterogeneous catalysis has long served as the bedrock of the manufacturing of energy carriers, fuels and chemicals, and various technologies for pollution abatement. The significant complexity and variability spanning the entire breadth of catalyst material properties, synthesis methods, characterization techniques, and evaluation procedures, has focused attention on the need to establish community-accepted best practices for ensuring high-quality, benchmarked, and reproducible data. In addition, increased societal urgency to transition to clean energy and reduce greenhouse gas concentrations has incentivized interdisciplinary, convergent, and translational approaches to catalysis research in recent years. Research engineers and scientists with expertise cutting broadly across materials science, chemical synthesis, interfacial science, spectroscopy, and methods of data science and computational simulation, all bring diverse and important perspectives to catalysis research, but often with little awareness of the complexity of catalytic systems, especially in their working environment. As has already occurred in other scientific fields, there has been growing recognition and consensus in the heterogeneous catalysis research community that mechanisms are needed to improve the rigor and reproducibility (R&R) of experimental measurements, to ensure alignment of the broader research community with a common core of best practices specific to the realization of high-quality catalysis research. Similarly, the field is moving rapidly toward computationally informed and data science-driven catalyst design, but the success of implementing such predictive tools hinges on model training and validation rooted in rigorously obtained and reproducible experimental data that are benchmarked to common specifications. As such, this workshop was convened to prepare a report summarizing best practices for reporting data and performing experiments that researchers can use to benchmark, validate, and reproduce data in specific sub-fields of thermal, heterogeneous catalysis. Additionally, we discussed recommendations for future actions that may improve R&R in this field. The workshop organizers and participants include a diverse range of catalysis researchers from various employment sectors (e.g., academia, industry, national laboratory), institutional mission and resources (e.g., PhD-granting research universities, non-PhD-granting teaching universities), career stage (e.g., early, mid and late-career), technical expertise, and demographic background. This diverse group was involved in the discussion of workshop agenda items, writing this report, and discussing possible future action items for the community to consider, which helped ensure that a broad range of perspectives were captured in the description of the problems at hand and the creation of actionable solutions that may be effectively adopted by the diverse practitioners in catalysis research. Importantly, this group of workshop participants also included very early career researchers (e.g., senior PhD students, postdoctoral scholars) who will become the next generation of scientific leaders in various sectors, thus capturing emerging perspectives of newcomers to the field to shape its future while positively impacting the development of its future workforce. We envision that this effort will help advance the field of catalysis science by improving the rigor and reproducibility of experimental data collected by current researchers and future newcomers to the field, which is of broad importance to health and vitality of any scientific discipline. Therefore, best practices identified in this endeavor for thermal heterogeneous catalysis can be translated to such efforts in other areas of catalysis and other scientific fields involving the study of materials, and vice versa. We also envision this to be an ongoing effort, with future workshops that are convened to discuss issues of rigor and reproducibility on technical topics that were unable to be covered in this workshop due to its scope limitations, and as emerging methods and materials become more prevalent in the research community.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Implementing and Improving CBMZ-MAM3 Chemistry and Aerosol Modules in the Regional Climate Model WRF-CAM5: An Evaluation over the Western US and Eastern North Pacific

The representation of aerosols in climate-chemistry models is important for air quality and climate change research, but it can require significant computational resources. The objective of this study was to improve the representation of aerosols in climate–chemistry models, specifically in the carbon bond mechanism, version Z (CBMZ), and modal aerosol modules with three lognormal modes (MAM3) in the WRF-CAM5 model. The study aimed to enhance the model’s chemistry capabilities by incorporating biomass burning emissions, establishing a conversion mechanism between volatile organic compounds (VOCs) and secondary organic carbons (SOCs), and evaluating its performance against observational benchmarks. The results of the study demonstrated the effectiveness of the enhanced chemistry capabilities in the WRF-CAM5 model. Six simulations were conducted over the western U.S. and northeastern Pacific region, comparing the model’s performance with observational benchmarks such as reanalysis, ground-based, and satellite data. The findings revealed a significant reduction in root-mean-square errors (RMSE) for surface concentrations of black carbon (BC) and organic carbon (OC). Specifically, the model exhibited a 31% reduction in RMSE for BC concentrations and a 58% reduction in RMSE for OC concentrations. These outcomes underscored the importance of accurate aerosol representation in climate-chemistry models and emphasized the potential for improving simulation accuracy and reducing errors through the incorporation of enhanced chemistry modules in such models.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

From bulk to surface: Structure and dynamics of amorphous alumina from deep potential molecular dynamics

Understanding the atomic-scale structure and dynamics of amorphous oxide surfaces is essential for interpreting their chemical reactivity, mechanical stability, and interfacial behavior, yet direct experimental characterization remains challenging. We employ Deep Potential (DP) molecular dynamics to generate large-scale, ab initio -quality models of amorphous Al 2 O 3 bulk glasses and melt-quenched free surfaces, enabling a quantitative analysis of both structure and relaxation dynamics with statistical confidence inaccessible to direct ab initio simulation. The trained DP model reproduces experimental liquid and glass structure, captures the cooling-rate dependence of the bulk glass transition, and corrects systematic biases in the polyhedral populations predicted by widely used classical force fields. At the free surface, mass density recovers to bulk values over ~10 Å, while local coordination requires a slightly wider subsurface region to fully converge. The outermost layer is oxygen-enriched, exhibits altered polyhedral connectivity with contracted Al–O bonds, and hosts a broad population of under-coordinated motifs (notably AlO 3 and OAl 2 ) whose abundances are governed by glass stability. These under-coordinated surface motifs exhibit distinct vibrational signatures and occur as locally paired Lewis acid and Brønsted base sites consistent with bond-valence compensation, yet remain spatially dispersed rather than aggregating into extended clusters. Despite this pronounced structural heterogeneity, surface relaxation and the glass-transition temperature remain comparable to their bulk counterparts, suggesting that the disordered surface is kinetically stable once formed. Together, these results establish a molecular-level picture of amorphous alumina surfaces and demonstrate the capability of machine-learned potentials to resolve structure–property relationships in disordered oxide interfaces.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

A product data network to enable faster, easier, and better planning of building envelopes

The building envelopes contributes significantly to the energy-efficiency of the building. Building performance simulation has made it possible to compare façade technologies regarding energy demand, daylighting, thermal and visual comfort in detail. Planners, such as architects and engineers, need experience to find product data with the right quality and level of detail, and to process the data to fit the calculation and the application. In the available time, planners can compare only a limited number of products, which means that better solutions could go unnoticed. This paper presents a new concept for making product data easily accessible for building façade planning. The concept consists of a network of databases for the efficient exchange and use of optical and calorimetric data of glazing units, shading devices, and combinations of both. The paper presents the research questions, an analysis of the current challenges, six design goals for the product data network and its implementation together with a discussion. Many product data sources can be connected to many planning software applications via the specified application programming interface. When planning software connects to the product data network, the planning of building envelopes can be much faster because planners do not need to spend so much time to search and process product data manually. The planning of building envelopes can also become much easier, especially for planners with limited experience. They do not need to understand all the details about which data fits which calculation if the software company implements this. The planning of building envelopes can become much more reliable when software companies validate their use of the product data network, because the current manual process is prone to errors. The planning of building envelopes can also improve because more products can be compared in the available time, allowing better solutions to be found.

Maurer, Christoph↗

A comparison of the power potential for surface- and seabed-deployed tidal turbines in the San Juan Archipelago, Salish Sea, WA

The San Juan archipelago lies along the axis of tidal movement between Straits of Juan de Fuca and Strait of Georgia in the Salish Sea. The amplitude of the tidal exchange produces significant tidal currents between the islands, as well as in Rosario and Haro Straits. These are of interest as a future source of electrical power generation, given the islands’ dependence on electricity supply by a subsea cable from the mainland. Here, we evaluate the tidal current energy potential in this region through a re-analysis of measurements collected by the National Ocean Service (NOS) and a high-resolution numerical model. Given the considerable variations in water depth and vertical velocity profiles across candidate tidal energy sites, we consider the trade-offs between tidal turbines deployed from a floating platform and those anchored to the seabed. Measurement re-analysis indicates several locations that could support tidal current power generation by MW-scale turbines with an acceptable balance between turbine size, rated power, and capacity factor. Even for relatively large (30 m) turbine diameters, surface-deployed turbines would be expected to produce up to 30 % more electricity than the same turbine deployed near the seabed due to vertical shear, with this difference increasing for smaller diameter turbines. A benchmark comparison at the measurement locations with the highest power generation potential shows relatively good model fidelity, though, even with relatively high resolution, time-average power density disagreements of ± 50 % persist throughout the water column. Nonetheless, the simulation identifies several locations with power generation potential more than twice as high as locations in the measurement re-analysis. These sites were either not surveyed by NOS or excluded due to data quality issues. Altogether, these results demonstrate the complimentary of models and measurements for tidal energy site assessment and suggest that tidal currents could be an important source of electricity generation in the San Juan archipelago.

16 TIDAL AND WAVE POWER↗