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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 703 records · Page 39
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2021

Dakota A Multilevel Parallel Object-Oriented Framework for Design Optimization Parameter Estimation Uncertainty Quantification and Sensitivity Analysis (V.6.14) (Theory Manual)

The Dakota toolkit provides a flexible and extensible interface between simulation codes and iterative analysis methods. Dakota contains algorithms for optimization with gradient and nongradient-based methods; uncertainty quantification with sampling, reliability, and stochastic expansion methods; parameter estimation with nonlinear least squares methods; and sensitivity/variance analysis with design of experiments and parameter study methods. These capabilities may be used on their own or as components within advanced strategies such as surrogate-based optimization, mixed integer nonlinear programming, or optimization under uncertainty. By employing object-oriented design to implement abstractions of the key components required for iterative systems analyses, the Dakota toolkit provides a flexible and extensible problem-solving environment for design and performance analysis of computational models on high performance computers. This report serves as a theoretical manual for selected algorithms implemented within the Dakota software. It is not intended as a comprehensive theoretical treatment, since a number of existing texts cover general optimization theory, statistical analysis, and other introductory topics. Rather, this manual is intended to summarize a set of Dakota-related research publications in the areas of surrogate-based optimization, uncertainty quantification, and optimization under uncertainty that provide the foundation for many of Dakota's iterative analysis capabilities.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2021

Dakota, A Multilevel Parallel Object-Oriented Framework for Design Optimization, Parameter Estimation, Uncertainty Quantification, and Sensitivity Analysis: Theory Manual (V.6.15)

The Dakota toolkit provides a flexible and extensible interface between simulation codes and iterative analysis methods. Dakota contains algorithms for optimization with gradient and nongradient-based methods; uncertainty quantification with sampling, reliability, and stochastic expansion methods; parameter estimation with nonlinear least squares methods; and sensitivity/variance analysis with design of experiments and parameter study methods. These capabilities may be used on their own or as components within advanced strategies such as surrogate-based optimization, mixed integer nonlinear programming, or optimization under uncertainty. By employing object-oriented design to implement abstractions of the key components required for iterative systems analyses, the Dakota toolkit provides a flexible and extensible problem-solving environment for design and performance analysis of computational models on high performance computers. This report serves as a theoretical manual for selected algorithms implemented within the Dakota software. It is not intended as a comprehensive theoretical treatment, since a number of existing texts cover general optimization theory, statistical analysis, and other introductory topics. Rather, this manual is intended to summarize a set of Dakota-related research publications in the areas of surrogate-based optimization, uncertainty quantification, and optimization under uncertainty that provide the foundation for many of Dakota's iterative analysis capabilities.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2022

Investigating uncertainties in human adaptation and their impacts on water scarcity in the Colorado river Basin, United States

The Colorado River Basin (CRB) supports the water supply for seven states and forty million people in the Western United States (US) and has been suffering an extensive drought for more than two decades. As climate change continues to reshape water resources distribution in the CRB, its impact can differ in intensity and location, resulting in variations in human adaptation behaviors. The feedback from human systems in response to the environmental changes and the associated uncertainty is critical to water resources management, especially for water-stressed basins. This paper investigates how human adaptation affects water scarcity uncertainty in the CRB and highlights the uncertainties in human behavior modeling. Our focus is on agricultural water consumption, as approximately 80% of the water consumption in the CRB is used in agriculture. We adopted a coupled agent-based and water resources modeling approach for exploring human-water system dynamics, in which an agent is a human behavior model that simulates a farmer’s water consumption decisions. We examined uncertainties at the system, agent, and parameter levels through uncertainty, clustering, and sensitivity analyses. The uncertainty analysis results suggest that the CRB water system may experience 13 to 30 years of water shortage during the 2019–2060 simulation period, depending on the paths of farmers’ adaptation. The clustering analysis identified three decision-making classes: bold, prudent, and forward-looking, and quantified the probabilities of an agent belonging to each class. The sensitivity analysis results indicated agents whose decision-making models require further investigation and the parameters with the higher uncertainty reduction potentials. Here, by conducting numerical experiments with the coupled model, this paper presents quantitative and qualitative information about farmers’ adaptation, water scarcity uncertainties, and future research directions for improving human behavior modeling.

Agent-based modeling↗
DOE OSTI2023

Nanoscale simulation of the thylakoid membrane response to extreme temperatures

Abstract The thylakoid membrane is in a temperature‐sensitive equilibrium that shifts repeatedly during the life cycle in response to ambient temperature or solar irradiance. Plants respond to seasonal temperature variation by changing their thylakoid lipid composition, while a more rapid mechanism for short‐term heat exposure is required. The emission of the small organic molecule isoprene has been postulated as one such possible rapid mechanism. The protective mechanism of isoprene is unknown, but some plants emit isoprene at high temperature. We investigate the dynamics and structure for lipids within a thylakoid membrane across temperatures and varied isoprene content using classical molecular dynamics simulations. The results are compared with experimental findings for temperature‐dependent changes in the lipid composition and shape of thylakoids. The surface area, volume, and flexibility of the membrane, as well as the lipid diffusion, increase with temperature, while the membrane thickness decreases. Saturated thylakoid 34:3 glycolipids derived from eukaryotic synthesis pathways exhibit altered dynamics relative to lipids from prokaryotic synthesis paths, which could explain the upregulation of specific lipid synthesis pathways at different temperatures. Increasing isoprene concentration was not observed to have a significant thermoprotective effect on the thylakoid membranes, and that isoprene readily permeated the membrane models tested.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Characterizing model uncertainties in simulated coast-to-offshore wind over the northeast U.S. using multi-platform measurements from the TCAP field campaign

Numerical weather prediction (NWP) models, such as the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model, are widely used to provide estimates of the offshore wind energy resource owing to their large spatial coverage compared to available observations. Nevertheless, spatiotemporal distribution of model biases is highly dependent on factors including model configuration, location, and the interplay of multi-scale physical processes. Here, in this study, we focus on the characterization of model uncertainties in simulated coast-to-offshore winds over the northeast U.S., by varying sea surface temperature (SST) forcings, surface layer (SL) and planetary boundary layer (PBL) parameterizations, as well as identifying biases that may be directly passed from initial and boundary conditions. Multiple measurements, including aircraft data collected during the U.S. Department of Energy's Two-Column Aerosol Project (TCAP) experiment, are used to constrain the model results and facilitate quantitative comparisons. Our analysis indicates while SST forcing has notable impacts on simulated air temperature and moisture within PBL, the modeled winds are in general more sensitive to the choices of SL and PBL physics than to SST. The model’s forcing data not only controls the vertical dependence of wind speed errors, but also alters regional variability in wind speed’s spatial correlation. Bias comparisons between ERA5 reanalysis and ensemble simulations revealed significant similarity, particularly in wind speed biases during winter, underscoring their dependency on initial and boundary conditions. Coastal and offshore near-surface wind speed biases tend to exhibit much higher similarity in winter than in summer due to the presence of much stronger and more persistent synoptic wind conditions. This study highlights the importance of accurate atmospheric forcing and parameterization choices in improving wind forecasts and suggests the potential for extrapolating coastal wind biases to offshore locations, aiding wind energy forecasting and informing the Wind Forecast Improvement Project-3 (WFIP3).

17 WIND ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2021

GeV-scale neutrinos: interactions with mesons and DUNE sensitivity

The simplest extension of the SM to account for the observed neutrino masses and mixings is the addition of at least two singlet fermions (or right-handed neutrinos). If their masses lie at or below the GeV scale, such new fermions would be produced in meson decays. Similarly, provided they are sufficiently heavy, their decay channels may involve mesons in the final state. Although the couplings between mesons and heavy neutrinos have been computed previously, significant discrepancies can be found in the literature. The aim of this paper is to clarify such discrepancies and provide consistent expressions for all relevant effective operators involving mesons with masses up to 2 GeV. Moreover, the effective Lagrangians obtained for both the Dirac and Majorana scenarios are made publicly available as FeynRules models so that fully differential event distributions can be easily simulated. As an application of our setup, we numerically compute the expected sensitivity of the DUNE near detector to these heavy neutral leptons.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗
DOE OSTI2023

Effects of Anionic Polymer Modification of Dye‐Sensitized Niobate Photocatalysts on Solar‐Driven Z‐Scheme Overall Water Splitting

Pt‐intercalated calcium niobate nanosheets (Pt/HCa 2 Nb 3 O 10 ) sensitized by a Ru(II) complex dye are good photocatalysts for producing H 2 from aqueous solutions containing I − as a reversible electron donor. These materials are applicable to Z‐scheme overall water splitting in combination with a WO 3 ‐based O 2 ‐evolving photocatalyst under simulated sunlight. In this work, the effects of anionic polymer modification of the dye‐sensitized nanosheets are examined by adsorbing sodium poly(styrenesulfonate) (PSS), sodium polyacrylate, sodium polymethacrylate (PMA), or sodium poly(4‐styrenesulfonic‐ co ‐maleic acid) onto the dye‐sensitized nanosheet surface. For half‐cell H 2 ‐evolution reaction in the presence of NaI, all of the polymers have a positive impact on the activity under visible light at lower light intensity, whereas only PMA is effective under high light‐intensity condition. For Z‐scheme overall water splitting with PtO x /H‐Cs‐WO 3 , PSS and PMA give almost the same solar‐to‐hydrogen energy conversion efficiencies (0.12% ± 0.01%) under optimized conditions. However, PMA operates better than PSS at relatively low and high NaI concentrations, which are in general disadvantageous for the H 2 ‐ and O 2 ‐evolving components of the Z‐scheme, respectively.

Energy & Fuels↗
DOE OSTI2025

Vertical canopy gradients of respiration drive plant carbon budgets and leaf area index

Despite its importance for determining global carbon fluxes, leaf respiration remains poorly constrained in land surface models (LSMs). We tested the sensitivity of the Energy Exascale Earth System Model Land Model – Functionally Assembled Terrestrial Ecosystem Simulator (ELM-FATES) to variation in the canopy gradients of leaf maintenance respiration (R dark ). We ran global and point simulations varying the canopy gradient of R dark to explore the impacts on forest structure, composition, and carbon cycling. In global simulations, steeper canopy gradients of R dark lead to increased understory survival and leaf biomass. Leaf area index (LAI) increased up to 77% in tropical regions compared with the default parameterization, improving alignment with remotely sensed benchmarks. Global vegetation carbon varied from 308 Pg C to 449 Pg C across the ensemble. In tropical forest simulations, steeper gradients of R dark had a large impact on successional dynamics. Results show the importance of canopy gradients in leaf traits and fluxes for determining plant carbon budgets and emergent ecosystem properties such as competitive dynamics, LAI, and vegetation carbon. The high-model sensitivity to canopy gradients in R dark highlights the need for more observations of how leaf traits and fluxes vary along light micro-environments to inform critical dynamics in LSMs.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

Assessing mean climate change signals in the global CORDEX-CORE ensemble

The new Coordinated Output for Regional Evaluations (CORDEX-CORE) ensemble provides high-resolution, consistent regional climate change projections for the major inhabited areas of the world. It serves as a solid scientific basis for further research related to vulnerability, impact, adaptation and climate services in addition to existing CORDEX simulations. The aim of this study is to investigate and document the climate change information provided by the CORDEX-CORE simulation ensemble, as a part of the World Climate Research Programme (WCRP) CORDEX community. An overview of the annual and monthly mean climate change information in selected regions in different CORDEX domains is presented for temperature and precipitation, providing the foundation for detailed follow-up studies and applications. Initially, two regional climate models (RCMs), REMO and RegCM were used to downscale global climate model output. The driving simulations by AR5 global climate models (AR5-GCMs) were selected to cover the spread of high, medium, and low equilibrium climate sensitivity at a global scale. The CORDEX-CORE ensemble has doubled the spatial resolution compared to the previously existing CORDEX simulations in most of the regions (25 $\,\mathrm {km}$ (0.22 $^{\circ }$ /jats:inline-formula>) versus 50 $\,\mathrm {km}$ (0.44 $^{\circ }$ )) leading to a potentially improved representation of, e.g., physical processes in the RCMs. The analysis focuses on changes in the IPCC physical climate reference regions. The results show a general reasonable representation of the spread of the temperature and precipitation climate change signals of the AR5-GCMs by the CORDEX-CORE simulations in the investigated regions in all CORDEX domains by mostly covering the AR5 interquartile range of climate change signals. The simulated CORDEX-CORE monthly climate change signals mostly follow the AR5-GCMs, although for specific regions they show a different change in the course of the year compared to the AR5-GCMs, especially for RCP8.5, which needs to be investigated further in region specific process studies.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Enhancing Local Grid Resilience with Small Hydropower Hybrids: Proving the concept through demonstration, simulation, and analysis with Idaho Falls Power

Large hydropower, connected to the transmission system and typically possessing significant ability to balance grid frequency, has long been central to black start plans in regions where it is present. Small hydropower possesses most of the attributes required for black start but is often connected to distribution or sub-transmission systems and has less ability to balance grid frequency. Integrating energy storage such as batteries or ultracapacitors increases the combined asset’s ability to balance frequency. This asset integration enables a bottom-up grid restoration paradigm in which critical electric loads on the local distribution system can be powered even when the regional transmission system is down. This report presents a field demonstration conducted with Idaho Falls Power that proved this concept. The contribution of energy storage in restoring the small hydro-dominated distribution grid and its operational sensitivity across different control settings are further analyzed using high-fidelity simulations. Readers will learn about technical details on the field demonstration setup, energy storage contribution to black start, detailed simulation steps of islanded distribution grid restoration, and usage of field demonstration measurements for transient model refinements. Collectively this report points to a great opportunity for small hydropower to enhance resilience of local electric grids.

13 HYDRO ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2021

Fuel convergence sensitivity in indirect drive implosions

In inertial confinement fusion experiments at the National Ignition Facility, a spherical shell of deuterium–tritium fuel is imploded in an attempt to reach the conditions needed for fusion, self-heating, and eventual ignition. Since theory and simulations indicate that ignition efficacy in 1D improves with increasing imploded fuel convergence ratio, it is useful to understand the sensitivity of the scale-invariant fuel convergence on all measurable or inferable 1D parameters. In this paper, we develop a simple isobaric and isentropic compression scaling model incorporating sensitivity to the in-flight adiabat inferred from shock strengths, to measured implosion velocity, and to known initial ablator and fuel aspect ratio and mass ratio. The model is first benchmarked to 1D implosion simulations spanning a variety of relevant implosion designs. We then use the model to compare compressibility trends across all existing indirect-drive layered implosion data from the facility spanning three ablators [CH, carbon (C), and Be], for which in-flight fuel adiabats varied from 1.6 to 5 by varying the number of drive shocks from 2 to 4, peak implosion velocities varied by 1.4×, capsule radii by 50%, and initial fuel aspect ratios by 1.4×. We find that the strength of the first shock is the dominant contributor setting the maximum fuel convergence. We also observe additional sensitivities to successive shock strengths and fuel aspect ratios that improve the agreement between the expected and measured compression for carbon and Be designs with adiabats above 3. A principal finding is that the adiabat 2.5 C-shell designs exhibit less convergence than CH-shell designs of similar inferred in-flight adiabat.

Landen, O. L. (ORCID:0000000214998217)↗
DOE OSTI2022

National-scale impacts on wind energy production under curtailment scenarios to reduce bat fatalities

Wind energy often plays a major role in meeting renewable energy policy objectives; however, increased deployment can raise concerns regarding the impacts of wind plants on certain wildlife. Particularly, estimates suggest hundreds of thousands of bat fatalities occur annually at wind plants across North America, with potential implications for the viability of several bat species. One approach to reducing bat fatalities is shutting down (or curtailing) turbines when bats are most at risk, such as at night during relatively low wind speed periods throughout summer and early autumn. While curtailment has consistently been shown to reduce bat fatalities, the lost power production reduces revenues for wind plants. This study conducted simulations with a range of curtailment scenarios across the contiguous United States to examine sensitivities of annual energy production (AEP) loss and potential impacts on economic metrics for future wind energy deployment. We found that AEP reduction can vary across the country from less than 1% to more than 10% for different curtailment scenarios. From an estimated 2891 gigawatts (GW) of simulated economically viable wind capacity (measured by a positive net present value), we found the mid curtailment scenario (6.0 m/s wind speed cut-in from July 1 through October 31) reduced the quantity of economic wind capacity by 274 GW or 9.5%. Our results indicate that high levels of curtailment could substantially reduce the future footprint of financially viable wind energy. In this context, future work that illuminates cost-effective strategies to minimize curtailment while reducing bat fatalities would be of value.

17 WIND ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2024

How Do Climate Model Resolution and Atmospheric Moisture Affect the Simulation of Unprecedented Extreme Events Like the 2021 Western North American Heat Wave?

Abstract Although the 2021 Western North America (WNA) heat wave was predicted by weather forecast models, questions remain about whether such strong events can be simulated by global climate models (GCMs) at different model resolutions. Here, we analyze sets of GCM simulations including historical and future periods to check for the occurrence of similar events. High‐ and low‐resolution simulations both encounter challenges in reproducing events as extreme as the observed one, particularly under the present climate. Relatively stronger amplitudes are observed during the future periods. Furthermore, high‐ and low‐resolution short initialized GCM simulations are both able to reasonably predict such strong events and their associated high‐pressure ridge over the WNA with a 1 week forecast lead time. Moisture sensitivity experiments further indicate a drier atmospheric moisture condition results in substantially higher near‐surface temperatures in the simulated heat events.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Kinetic Monte Carlo simulations of aging in δ -Pu

We have developed a first-passage kinetic Monte Carlo approach for materials aging to investigate the sensitivity of void swelling to model parameters, including helium bubble density and size distribution. In addition to explicitly accounting for the spatial distribution of individual point defects, bubbles, and voids, our approach can simulate total doses equivalent to 100 years of natural aging on statistically representative volumes of materials. This technique enables us to study the effects on swelling and radiation damage evolution due to temperature and dose rate (as altered in artificially aged experiments), differences in effective interaction radii between vacancies and interstitials, and varying defect diffusion activation energies, while providing more detailed information than previous rate-equation based approaches. In conclusion, our results indicate that spatial effects that are not modeled in mean-field rate theories could play a significant role in void swelling initiation and growth for certain regimes of model parameters.

Actinides↗
DOE OSTI2026

SAVY-4000 Finite-Element Drop Test Analysis

PFE Auxiliary Systems conducted drop testing on SAVY-4000 containers to evaluate structural response under 12-foot drop conditions. In support of that effort, a finite-element modeling capability was developed to simulate drop response across multiple container sizes and impact orientations. The purpose of this work was to provide a consistent analysis framework that could support interpretation of testing, compare response trends across multiple configurations, and generate quantities of interest for later comparison with experimental data. More broadly, the analysis and testing were intended to assess whether the containers continued to perform their primary function after a 12-foot drop, namely maintaining structural integrity and containment of the contents. The modeling approach combined an implicit preload analysis with an explicit drop simulation so that each drop event began from a mechanically realistic assembled condition, including compression of the silicone O-ring. Separate models were developed for 2-quart, 5-quart, 12-quart, and 10-gallon containers. The results were evaluated in terms of strain-gauge response, collar-lid gap behavior, and accumulated plastic strain. In addition, parametric studies were performed on the 2-quart container to assess sensitivity to O-ring stiffness, friction, canister thickness, geometry tolerance, and mesh density. The simulations showed that predicted drop responses depended strongly on both container size and drop orientation. Gap metrics identified cases in which the predicted collar-lid opening exceeded the nominal O-ring cross-section threshold, while plastic strain metrics identified localized regions of elevated permanent deformation. Parametric studies showed that the predicted response was especially sensitive to the assumed O-ring stiffness and contact friction, while the geometry tolerance study produced smaller changes in the cases examined. The main value of this work was that it established a repeatable modeling and simulation workflow to support drop-test implementation, evaluate effects of future configuration changes, and understand modeling assumptions that most influenced predicted response. At the current stage, the results were viewed as preliminary model predictions rather than validated predictions. The next step would be to compare drop-test data to the model so that predictive values of the workflow could be refined and used with greater confidence to assess whether the containers maintained structural integrity and containment of the contents after a 12-foot drop.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2021

OASIS: Optimal Analysis-Specific Importance Sampling for event generation

We propose a technique called Optimal Analysis-Specific Importance Sampling (OASIS) to reduce the number of simulated events required for a high-energy experimental analysis to reach a target sensitivity. We provide recipes to obtain the optimal sampling distributions which preferentially focus the event generation on the regions of phase space with high utility to the experimental analyses. OASIS leads to a conservation of resources at all stages of the Monte Carlo pipeline, including full-detector simulation, and is complementary to approaches which seek to speed-up the simulation pipeline.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2021

An efficient method to identify uncertainties of WRF-Solar variables in forecasting solar irradiance using a tangent linear sensitivity analysis

Uncertainty in predicting solar energy resources introduces major challenges in power system management and necessitates the development of reliable probabilistic solar forecasts. As the first part of the development of probabilistic forecasts based on the Weather Research and Forecasting model with solar extensions (WRF-Solar), this study presents a tangent linear approach to identify input variables responsible for the largest uncertainties in predicting surface solar irradiance and clouds. A tangent linear analysis is capable of efficiently investigating sensitivities of output variables with respect to various input variables of WRF-Solar because this approach avoids the computational burden of perturbing the initial conditions of individual input variables. We develop tangent linear models (TLMs) for six WRF-Solar physics packages that control the formation and dissipation of clouds and solar radiation, and we evaluate the validity of TLMs using a linearity test. The tangent linear sensitivity analysis is conducted under various scenarios based on satellite observations and model simulations to consider realistic input conditions. A simple method is used to quantify the impact of the uncertainty of input variables on the output variables from the TLMs. The results demonstrate that uncertainties in the output variables that are the focus of this study—including global horizontal irradiance, direct normal irradiance, cloud mixing ratio, cloud tendency, cloud fraction, and sensible and latent heat fluxes—are highly sensitive to uncertainties in 14 input variables. This study indicates that the tangent linear method can identify key variables of physics modules in WRF-Solar that can be stochastically perturbed to generate ensemble-based probabilistic forecasts.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2024

Simulating the Phonon Collection Efficiency in KIPMDs

Kinetic inductance phonon-mediated (KIPM) detectors are superconducting microcalorimeters that use microwave kinetic inductance detectors (MKIDs) to read out phonon signals in the device substrate. In order to improve the design of these detectors, we need to understand the effect of various detector design elements on the physical processes that take place within the detector through simulation efforts. One figure of merit for KIPM detectors is the phonon collection efficiency, $\eta_{ph]$, defined as the ratio of phonon energy detected by the sensitive element in the detector and the energy deposited by incident phonons in the substrate. Comparing the phonon collection efficiency obtained in simulation and in experiment for the same detector geometry provides insight to physical processes in the detector, such as phonon absorption at substrate-sensor interfaces and phonon loss to non-sensitive detector elements. This work models the phonon collection efficiency in two KIPM detectors with different geometries, one located at the Fermi National Accelerator Laboraory, the other located at the SLAC National Accelerator Laboratory.

Dang, Stella Q.↗