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NASA NTRS1982

Geographic Information Systems for Assessing Existing and Potential Bio-energy Resources: Their Use in Determining Land Use and Management Options which Minimize Ecological and Landscape Impacts in Rural Areas

A management construct is described which forms part of an overall landscape ecological planning model which has as a principal objective the extension of the traditional descriptive land use mapping capabilities of geographic information systems into land management realms. It is noted that geographic information systems appear to be moving to more comprehensive methods of data handling and storage, such as relational and hierarchical data management systems, and a clear need has simultaneously arisen therefore for planning assessment techniques and methodologies which can actually use such complex levels of data in a systematic, yet flexible and scenario dependent way. The descriptive of mapping method proposed broaches such issues and utilizes a current New England bioenergy scenario, stimulated by the use of hardwoods for household heating purposes established in the post oil crisis era and the increased awareness of the possible landscape and ecological ramifications of the continued increasing use of the resource.

Jackman, A. E.↗

NASA NTRS1999

Mars 2001 Lander Mission: Measurement Synergy Through Coordinated Operations Planning And Implementation

The 2001 Mars Surveyor Program Mission includes an orbiter with a gamma ray spectrometer and a multispectral thermal imager, and a lander with an extensive set of instrumentation, a robotic arm, and the Marie Curie Rover. The Mars 2001 Science Operations Working Group (SOWG) is a subgroup of the Project Science Group that has been formed to provide coordinated planning and implementation of scientific observations, particularly for the landed portion of the mission. The SOWG will be responsible for delivery of a science plan and, during operations, generation and delivery of conflict-free sequences. This group will also develop an archive plan that is compliant with Planetary Data System (PDS) standards, and will oversee generation, validation, and delivery of integrated archives to the PDS. In this report we cover one element of the SOWG planning activities, the development of a plan that maximizes the scientific return from lander-based observations by treating the instrument packages as an integrated payload. Scientific objectives for the lander mission have been defined. They include observations focused on determining the bedrock geology of the site through analyses of rocks and also local materials found in the soils, and the surficial geology of the site, including windblown deposits and the nature and history of formation of indurated sediments such as duricrust. Of particular interest is the identification and quantification of processes related to early warm, wet conditions and the presence of hydrologic or hydrothermal cycles. Determining the nature and origin of duricrust and associated salts is -very important in this regard. Specifically, did these deposits form in the vadose zone as pore water evaporated from soils or did they form by other processes, such as deposition of volcanic aerosols? Basic information needed to address these questions includes the morphology, topography, and geologic context of landforms and materials exposed at the site, together with quantitative information on material mineralogy, chemistry, and physical properties (rock textures; soil grain size and shape distributions; degree and nature of soil induration; soil magnetic properties). The calibration targets provide radiometric and mineralogical control surfaces. The magnets allow observations of magnetic phases. Patch plates are imaged to determine adhesive and abrasive properties of soils. Coordinated mission planning is crucial for optimizing the measurement synergy among the packages included on the lander. This planning has already begun through generation of multi-sol detailed operations activities. One focus has been to develop a scenario to use the arm to dig a soil trench to a depth of tens of centimeters. The activity will be monitored through use of Pancam and RAC to ensure nominal operations and to acquire data to determine subsurface physical properties (e.g., angle of repose of trench walls). Pancam and Mini-TES observations would also provide constraints on mineralogy and texture for the walls and bottom of the trench during excavation. If desired, soils excavated at depth could be deposited on the surface and Mossbauer and APXS measurements could be acquired for these materials. Soil samples from various depths would be delivered to MECA for characterization of aqueous geochemistry and physical properties of soil grains, particularly size, shape, and hardness. These physical properties would be determined by optical and atomic force microscopy. When completed, detailed information of soil properties as a function of depth would be obtained. These various data sets would constrain our understanding of whether or not there are systematic variations in soil characteristics as a function of depth. These variations might be related, for example, to evaporative moisture losses and formation of salt deposits, thereby indicating water transport processes occurred fairly recently. Many other value-added measurement scenarios are being developed. For example, characterizing the nature and dynamics of dust deposition will be done using MIP/DART to provide deposition rates, Pancam and RAC imaging of lander and rover surfaces to extrapolate these measurements to other areas, and a variety of measurements to determine if the bulk loose soil has the same characteristics as dust that accumulates during the mission. Bedrock geology of the site is primarily an APEX-focus setting, mineralogy, and texture, and APXS data to be we interest will be to determine the extent to which rock hydrothermal processes, given that APEX is the precursor 4 and 2005 rover missions. Additional information is contained in the original.

Arvidson, R.↗

NASA NTRS2010

Interaction Between Strategic and Local Traffic Flow Controls

The loosely coordinated sets of traffic flow management initiatives that are operationally implemented at the national- and local-levels have the potential to under, over, and inconsistently control flights. This study is designed to explore these interactions through fast-time simulations with an emphasis on identifying inequitable situations in which flights receive multiple uncoordinated delays. Two operationally derived scenarios were considered in which flights arriving into the Dallas/Fort Worth International Airport were first controlled at the national-level, either with a Ground Delay Program or a playbook reroute. These flights were subsequently controlled at the local level. The Traffic Management Advisor assigned them arrival scheduling delays. For the Ground Delay Program scenarios, between 51% and 53% of all arrivals experience both pre-departure delays from the Ground Delay Program and arrival scheduling delays from the Traffic Management Advisor. Of the subset of flights that received multiple delays, between 5.7% and 6.4% of the internal departures were first assigned a pre-departure delay by the Ground Delay Program, followed by a second pre-departure delay as a result of the arrival scheduling. For the playbook reroute scenario, Dallas/Fort Worth International Airport arrivals were first assigned pre-departure reroutes based on the MW_2_DALLAS playbook plan, and were subsequently assigned arrival scheduling delays by the Traffic Management Advisor. Since the airport was operating well below capacity when the playbook reroute was in effect, only 7% of the arrivals were observed to receive both rerouting and arrival scheduling delays. Findings from these initial experiments confirm field observations that Ground Delay Programs operated in conjunction with arrival scheduling can result in inequitable situations in which flights receive multiple uncoordinated delays.

Grabbe, Son↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

NASA's Habitat Outfitting Portfolio: Technology Development to Support Future Habitation Systems

Habitat outfitting generally refers to the supplies and equipment (and installation thereof) which provide crew with a livable, safe environment during a mission and enable the performance of mission tasks. Outfitting will be needed on future missions for habitation to provide the crew with a livable and safe environment. Both softgoods inflatable habitats, which are packaged and deployed/inflated at the point of use, and constructed habitats, which may be manufactured using in situ resource-derived materials on a planetary surface, will require more outfitting than traditional habitation approaches using rigid metallic structures (such as the International Space Station), where many elements can launch pre-integrated. For softgoods inflatable habitats, it is anticipated that much of the outfitting would be performed by crew, while in constructed habitation scenarios outfitting may be done by robotic systems as part of precursor missions. This paper provides an overview of future planned habitats and outfitting needs, technology gaps related to outfitting, and current work under NASA’s habitat systems development, in-space manufacturing, and habitat construction portfolios related to this topic.

space habitats↗

NASA NTRS2024

Detectability Simulations of a Near-infrared Surface Biosignature on Proxima Centauri b with Future Space Observatories

Telescope missions are currently being designed that will make direct imaging of habitable exoplanets possible in the near future, and studies are needed to quantify the detectability of biosignature features in the planet's reflectance spectrum. We simulated the detectability of a near-infrared-absorbing surface biosignature feature with simulated observations of the nearby exoplanet Proxima Centauri b. We modeled a biosignature spectral feature with a reflectance spectrum based on an anoxygenic photosynthetic bacterial species that has strong absorption at 1 μm, which could make it well suited for life on an M-dwarf-hosted planet. We modeled the distribution of this organism across the planet's surface based on climate states from a 3D general circulation model (GCM) that were Archean- and Proterozoic-like exo-Earth analogs. We included the GCM states' prognostically simulated water clouds and added organic haze into the Archean-like atmospheres. We simulated observations of these Proxima Centauri b scenarios with the LUVOIR-A and B telescope concepts, with LUVOIR-B serving as a proxy to the planned Habitable Worlds Observatory. We calculated the integration times necessary to detect the biosignature and found that it would be detectable on Proxima Centauri b if the organism is moderately abundant (greater than a 1%–4% global surface area coverage), as long as the atmosphere is transmitting in the wavelength range under consideration. Small amounts of methane, clouds, and haze do not greatly impede detectability. We found preliminary evidence that such a biosignature would be detectable on exoplanets within 15 pc, but further investigations are needed to corroborate this.

Exoplanet astronomy↗

DOE OSTI2023

6. Closed-Loop Toolpath Generation

Closed-loop paths, also known as closed-loop contours, are paths that start and stop at the same point and are typically used to define the perimeter or outermost boundary of the polygon that represents a given layer of an object, referred to as the “layer polygon.” Finding the location of a closed-loop path involves applying two offsetting steps to the edge of the layer polygon. The offsetting steps respectively serve to (1) find the area that contains the toolpath and (2) find the centerline of that area, to define the path itself. After finding the perimeter path, the remaining geometry from the layer polygon can be used for additional path-planning steps. This chapter will discuss how the location for a closed-loop path is found, including various problem scenarios, and the different types of closed-loop paths used in additive manufacturing.

Roschli, Alex↗

DOE OSTI2024

Laboratory Evaluation of Commercial Utility Microgrid Controller Test Results

The functional requirements of many microgrid controllers (MGCs) are expanding and evolving to meet growing utility and community needs. At a high level, the utility microgrid controller serves resilience and reliability use cases by coordinating transitions between grid-connected and islanded states and by managing the system during island operations. This includes control scenarios that require the microgrid controller to use flexible microgrid boundaries, maintain energy balance, coordinate with peer systems, and manage grid-forming (GFM) and grid-following (GFL) distributed energy resources (DER). In order to evaluate these functional enhancements, microgrid controller test plans must also be developed to ensure that the implemented controllers provide adequate performance. This report provides MGC test plans for both island operation and transition functions. The functions covered in this report include feeder level energy management, island constraint management, secondary voltage and frequency control, black start, and synchronized reconnection. This second edition update also includes results from applying the tests to a commercial utility microgrid controller. These results evaluate the performance and reliability of the controller under various operational scenarios. It identifies specific areas where the controller excels and highlights gaps that need to be addressed for future enhancements. The application of these test plans on real-world system behavior provides insights on commercial equipment readiness for field deployment. These test cases can be applied to utility-managed microgrid controllers that exclusively manage utility-owned equipment; the tests also apply to third-party managed microgrid controllers that coordinate with utility- and customer-owned equipment. The report can also be used by technology developers and project developers in industry to evaluate control strategies and performance characteristics for community microgrid controllers.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

DOE OSTI2021

ADDS-EVS: An agent-based deployment decision-support system for electric vehicle services

Rapid and sustainable development of the electric vehicle (EV) industry places the requirement for the plan of EV deployment. For public EV, existing models mainly focus on the charging facility design and fail to capture the multi-modal scenarios. In this work, we develop an agent-based decision-support system for multi-modal electric transits to locate the optimal combinations of key parameters, including the fleet size, the transit schedule, the charging facility design, and the routing strategy. We demonstrate the utilities of our system by simulating public EV services deployed to serve travel needs related to a transportation hub in New York City. To support the decision of the fleet size, we summarize system-level performances including the total satisfied demand, passengers' waiting time, vehicle idling time. The spatial and temporal patterns are extracted to serve a deeper understanding of system dynamics and service quality. Finally, we investigate the interaction between the fleet size design and the routing strategy. The results suggest a necessity of integrating the operation strategies into the planning phase.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

DOE OSTI2024

Cambium 2023 Scenario Descriptions and Documentation

The National Renewable Energy Laboratory's (NREL's) Cambium data sets are annually released sets of simulated hourly emission, cost, and operational data for a range of modeled futures of the U.S. electric sector with metrics designed to be useful for long-term decision- making. The 2023 Cambium data set is the fourth annual release. The data sets are a companion product to NREL's Standard Scenarios, which are likewise released annually and are a set of projections of how the U.S. electric sector could evolve across a suite of different potential futures, but covering more scenarios with less temporal granularity (Gagnon et al. 2024). Information about Cambium and related publications can be found at https://www.nrel.gov/analysis/cambium.html, and the Cambium data sets can be viewed and downloaded at https://scenarioviewer.nrel.gov/. In this documentation, we describe Cambium 2023's scenarios, define the metrics, and document the Cambium-specific methods for calculating those metrics.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

NASA NTRS2004

Cooperative Lander-Surface/Aerial Microflyer Missions for Mars Exploration

Concepts are being investigated for exploratory missions to Mars based on Bioinspired Engineering of Exploration Systems (BEES), which is a guiding principle of this effort to develop biomorphic explorers. The novelty lies in the use of a robust telecom architecture for mission data return, utilizing multiple local relays (including the lander itself as a local relay and the explorers in the dual role of a local relay) to enable ranges ~10 to 1,000 km and downlink of color imagery. As illustrated in Figure 1, multiple microflyers that can be both surface or aerially launched are envisioned in shepherding, metamorphic, and imaging roles. These microflyers imbibe key bio-inspired principles in their flight control, navigation, and visual search operations. Honey-bee inspired algorithms utilizing visual cues to perform autonomous navigation operations such as terrain following will be utilized. The instrument suite will consist of a panoramic imager and polarization imager specifically optimized to detect ice and water. For microflyers, particularly at small sizes, bio-inspired solutions appear to offer better alternate solutions than conventional engineered approaches. This investigation addresses a wide range of interrelated issues, including desired scientific data, sizes, rates, and communication ranges that can be accomplished in alternative mission scenarios. The mission illustrated in Figure 1 offers the most robust telecom architecture and the longest range for exploration with two landers being available as main local relays in addition to an ephemeral aerial probe local relay. The shepherding or metamorphic plane are in their dual role as local relays and image data collection/storage nodes. Appropriate placement of the landing site for the scout lander with respect to the main mission lander can allow coverage of extremely large ranges and enable exhaustive survey of the area of interest. In particular, this mission could help with the path planning and risk mitigation in the traverse of the long-distance surface explorer/rover. The basic requirements of design and operation of BEES to implement the scenarios are discussed. Terrestrial applications of such concepts include distributed aerial/surface measurements of meteorological events, i.e., storm watch, seismic monitoring, reconnaissance, biological chemical sensing, search and rescue, surveillance, autonomous security/ protection agents, and/or delivery and lateral distribution of agents (sensors, surface/subsurface crawlers, clean-up agents). Figure 2 illustrates an Earth demonstration that is in development, and its implementation will illustrate the value of these biomorphic mission concepts.

Thakoor, Sarita↗

DOE OSTI2024

A Weather Analysis for Xcel Energy's 2030 Colorado Preferred Plan

The Public Service Company of Colorado (PSCo), a subsidiary of Xcel Energy (Xcel), plans to meet its target of an 80% reduction in CO 2 emissions over 2005 levels by 2030 through its Preferred Plan1,2 that includes increasing the wind and solar energy on its system, reducing coal, and adjusting the operation and dispatch of new and existing thermal generation. The objective of our analysis reported here is to identify how the PSCo generation and transmission of its Preferred Plan might operate in the face of specific weather events. We investigate weather events that currently cause stress to PSCo’s system, such as winter storms and extreme heat. In addition, we explore how the future system responds to scenarios that may be considered normal weather conditions today, but that have a large impact on wind and solar generation potential.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

DOE OSTI2020

Machine learning model to project the impact of COVID-19 on U.S. motor gasoline demand

Owing to the global lockdowns that resulted from the COVID-19 pandemic, fuel demand plummeted and the price of oil futures went negative in April 2020. Robust fuel demand projections are crucial to economic and energy planning and policy discussions. Here we incorporate pandemic projections and people's resulting travel and trip activities and fuel usage in a machine-learning-based model to project the US medium-term gasoline demand and study the impact of government intervention. We found that under the reference infection scenario, the US gasoline demand grows slowly after a quick rebound in May, and is unlikely to fully recover prior to October 2020. Under the reference and pessimistic scenario, continual lockdown (no reopening) could worsen the motor gasoline demand temporarily, but it helps the demand recover to a normal level quicker. Under the optimistic infection scenario, gasoline demand will recover close to the non-pandemic level by October 2020. The COVID 19 pandemic and consequent lockdown has had a substantial impact on mobility and therefore fuel demand and it is not clear when demand will recover. Ou et al. use a machine learning model that integrates health recovery scenarios to project the near-term future of gasoline demand.

COVID-19 pandemic↗

DOE OSTI2025

More land is needed for solar and wind infrastructure under a high renewables scenario in the Western US by 2050

Expanding United States electricity infrastructure to meet growing demand could require extensive power plant development footprints and land use conversion, depending on the mix of generation types chosen. Understanding where future power plant sitings are likely to take place and identifying potential conflicts and land-use tradeoffs will be key to identifying feasible and affordable investments and evaluating regional planning coordination needs. Here we use an integrated modeling framework that combines capacity expansion planning, hourly grid operations, and geospatial techno-economic analysis to develop projections (2025-2050) of power plant sitings in the Western United States (US) at a 1 km 2 resolution for a business-as-usual scenario and a high renewables penetration scenario. We find that 30% more land will be needed in the high renewables scenario as compared to business-as-usual, and that 75% of that development is projected to be located within 10 km of natural areas.

Mongird, Kendall [Pacific Northwest National Labor↗

DOE OSTI2025

Future Circular Collider Feasibility Study Report

Volume 3 of the FCC Feasibility Report presents studies related to civil engineering, the development of a project implementation scenario, and environmental and sustainability aspects. The report details the iterative improvements made to the civil engineering concepts since 2018, taking into account subsurface conditions, accelerator and experiment requirements, and territorial considerations. It outlines a technically feasible and economically viable civil engineering configuration that serves as the baseline for detailed subsurface investigations, construction design, cost estimation, and project implementation planning. Additionally, the report highlights ongoing subsurface investigations in key areas to support the development of an improved 3D subsurface model of the region. The report describes the development of the project scenario based on the ‘avoid-reduce-compensate’ iterative optimisation approach. The reference scenario balances optimal physics performance with territorial compatibility, implementation risks, and costs. Environmental field investigations covering almost 600 hectares of terrain—including numerous urban, economic, social, and technical aspects—confirmed the project’s technical feasibility and contributed to the preparation of essential input documents for the formal project authorisation phase. The summary also highlights the initiation of public dialogue as part of the authorisation process. The results of a comprehensive socio-economic impact assessment, which included significant environmental effects, are presented. Even under the most conservative and stringent conditions, a positive benefit-cost ratio for the FCC-ee is obtained. Finally, the report provides a summary of the studies conducted to document the current state of the environment.

Benedikt, M. [European Organization for Nuclear Re↗

NASA NTRS2013

ISECG Global Exploration Roadmap: A Stepwise Approach to Deep Space Exploration

In 2011, ISECG released the Global Exploration Roadmap (GER), advancing the "Global Exploration Strategy: The Framework for Coordination" by articulating the perspectives of participating agencies on exploration goals and objectives, mission scenarios, and coordination of exploration preparatory activities. The GER featured a stepwise development and demonstration of capabilities ultimately required for human exploration of Mars. In 2013 the GER was updated to reflect the ongoing evolution of agency's exploration policies and plans, informed by individual agency and coordinated analysis activities that are relevant to various elements of the GER framework as well as coordinated stakeholder engagement activities. For this release of version 2 of the GER in the mid 2013 timeframe, a modified mission scenario is presented, more firmly reflecting the importance of a stepwise evolution of critical capabilities provided by multiple partners necessary for executing increasingly complex missions to multiple destinations and leading to human exploration of Mars. This paper will describe the updated mission scenario, the changes since the release of version 1, the mission themes incorporated into the scenario, and risk reduction for Mars missions provided by exploration at various destinations.

Martinez, Roland↗

DOE OSTI2022

Representing Socio‐Economic Uncertainty in Human System Models

Abstract Socio‐economic development pathways and their implications for the environment are highly uncertain, and energy transitions will involve complex interactions among sectors. Here, traditional Monte Carlo analysis is paired with scenario discovery techniques to provide a richer portrait of these complexities. Modeled uncertain input variables include costs of advanced energy technologies, energy efficiency trends, fossil fuel resource availability, elasticities of substitution for labor, capital, and energy across economic sectors, population growth, and labor and capital productivity. The sampled values are simulated through a multi‐sector, multi‐region, recursively dynamic model of the world economy to explore a range of possible future outcomes. We find that many patterns of energy and technology development are possible for various long‐term environmental pathways and that sectoral output for most sectors is little affected through 2050 by the long‐term temperature target, but with tight constraints on emissions, emission intensities must fall much more rapidly. Scenario discovery techniques are applied to the large uncertainty ensembles to explore if there are prevailing storylines behind outcomes of interest. An illustrative investigation focused on different levels of economic growth shows many combinations of pathways and no single storyline emerging for a given economic outcome. This method can be extended to other outcomes of interest, exploring the nature of scenarios with both tail and median outcomes. Sampling from a Monte Carlo generated ensemble provides a rich set of scenarios to investigate, and potentially aids in avoiding heuristic biases in less structured scenario approaches.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

DOE OSTI2026

Energy and physical resource impacts of quantum computing merit greater attention

Quantum computing research and development is growing worldwide; yet the energy and physical resource demands of future quantum-accelerated data centres are unknown. Planning for quantum computing requires strong collaboration between research communities across engineering, physics, environmental sciences, economics, policy, and energy systems and scenario modelling.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

NASA NTRS1992

Motion-based carriage simulation of extra-vehicular activity (EVA) rescue

A research program was outlined for a series of Extra-Vehicular Activity (EVA) rescue studies. The general purpose is to get a better appreciation of the characteristics describing an EVA rescue scenario. Several studies have been completed in the Virtual Interactive Environment Workstation (VIEW) at NASA Ames Research Center. Similar studies are planned for a variety of simulators both to get more reliable results for the EVA rescue problem and to baseline the simulators against one another. Work is planned for a motion-based carriage to expand the validity of the previously obtained results.

Brody, Adam R.↗