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NASA NTRS2011

Development and Certification of Ultrasonic Background Noise Test (UBNT) System for use on the International Space Station (ISS)

As a next step in the development and implementation of an on-board leak detection and localization system on the International Space Station (ISS), there is a documented need to obtain measurements of the ultrasonic background noise levels that exist within the ISS. This need is documented in the ISS Integrated Risk Management System (IRMA), Watch Item #4669. To address this, scientists and engineers from the Langley Research Center (LaRC) and the Johnson Space Center (JSC), proposed to the NASA Engineering and Safety Center (NESC) and the ISS Vehicle Office a joint assessment to develop a flight package as a Station Development Test Objective (SDTO) that would perform ultrasonic background noise measurements within the United States (US) controlled ISS structure. This document contains the results of the assessment

Prosser, William H.↗
NASA NTRS2011

Building a Shared Definitional Model of Long Duration Human Spaceflight

In 1956, on the eve of human space travel Strughold first proposed a simple classification of the present and future stages of manned flight that identified key factors, risks and developmental stages for the evolutionary journey ahead. As we look to optimize the potential of the ISS as a gateway to new destinations, we need a current shared working definitional model of long duration human space flight to help guide our path. Initial search of formal and grey literature augmented by liaison with subject matter experts. Search strategy focused on both the use of term long duration mission and long duration spaceflight, and also broader related current and historical definitions and classification models of spaceflight. The related sea and air travel literature was also subsequently explored with a view to identifying analogous models or classification systems. There are multiple different definitions and classification systems for spaceflight including phase and type of mission, craft and payload and related risk management models. However the frequently used concepts of long duration mission and long duration spaceflight are infrequently operationally defined by authors, and no commonly referenced classical or gold standard definition or model of these terms emerged from the search. The categorization (Cat) system for sailing was found to be of potential analogous utility, with its focus on understanding the need for crew and craft autonomy at various levels of potential adversity and inability to gain outside support or return to a safe location, due to factors of time, distance and location.

Orr, M.↗
NASA NTRS2011

Climate Hazard Assessment for Stakeholder Adaptation Planning in New York City

This paper describes a time-sensitive approach to climate change projections, developed as part of New York City's climate change adaptation process, that has provided decision support to stakeholders from 40 agencies, regional planning associations, and private companies. The approach optimizes production of projections given constraints faced by decision makers as they incorporate climate change into long-term planning and policy. New York City stakeholders, who are well-versed in risk management, helped pre-select the climate variables most likely to impact urban infrastructure, and requested a projection range rather than a single 'most likely' outcome. The climate projections approach is transferable to other regions and consistent with broader efforts to provide climate services, including impact, vulnerability, and adaptation information. The approach uses 16 Global Climate Models (GCMs) and three emissions scenarios to calculate monthly change factors based on 30-year average future time slices relative to a 30- year model baseline. Projecting these model mean changes onto observed station data for New York City yields dramatic changes in the frequency of extreme events such as coastal flooding and dangerous heat events. Based on these methods, the current 1-in-10 year coastal flood is projected to occur more than once every 3 years by the end of the century, and heat events are projected to approximately triple in frequency. These frequency changes are of sufficient magnitude to merit consideration in long-term adaptation planning, even though the precise changes in extreme event frequency are highly uncertain

Horton, Radley M.↗
NASA NTRS2012

Workshop on the Development of an Experimental Global Drought Information System (GDIS): Overview of Workshop Goals

Among the key recommendations of a recent WCRP Workshop on Drought Predictability and Prediction in a Changing Climate is the development of an experimental global drought information system (GDIS). The timeliness of such an effort is evidenced by the wide aITay of relevant ongoing national and international (as well as regional and continental scale) efforts to provide drought information, including the US and North American drought monitors, and various integrating activities such as GEO and the Global Drought Portal. The workshop will review current capabilities and needs, and focus on the steps necessary to develop a GDIS that will build upon the extensive worldwide investments that have already been made in developing drought monitoring (including new space-based observations), drought risk management, and climate prediction capahilities.

Schubert, Siegfried↗
NASA NTRS2012

Tailoring Systems Engineering Processes in a Conceptual Design Environment: A Case Study at NASA Marshall Spaceflight Center's ACO

This paper provides an overview of Systems Engineering as it is applied in a conceptual design space systems department at the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) Marshall Spaceflight Center (MSFC) Advanced Concepts Office (ACO). Engineering work performed in the NASA MFSC's ACO is targeted toward the Exploratory Research and Concepts Development life cycle stages, as defined in the International Council on Systems Engineering (INCOSE) System Engineering Handbook. This paper addresses three ACO Systems Engineering tools that correspond to three INCOSE Technical Processes: Stakeholder Requirements Definition, Requirements Analysis, and Integration, as well as one Project Process Risk Management. These processes are used to facilitate, streamline, and manage systems engineering processes tailored for the earliest two life cycle stages, which is the environment in which ACO engineers work. The role of systems engineers and systems engineering as performed in ACO is explored in this paper. The need for tailoring Systems Engineering processes, tools, and products in the ever-changing engineering services ACO provides to its customers is addressed.

Mulqueen, John↗
NASA NTRS2015

Uncertainty in Twenty-First-Century CMIP5 Sea Level Projections

The representative concentration pathway (RCP) simulations included in phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) quantify the response of the climate system to different natural and anthropogenic forcing scenarios. These simulations differ because of 1) forcing, 2) the representation of the climate system in atmosphere-ocean general circulation models (AOGCMs), and 3) the presence of unforced (internal) variability. Global and local sea level rise projections derived from these simulations, and the emergence of distinct responses to the four RCPs depend on the relative magnitude of these sources of uncertainty at different lead times. Here, the uncertainty in CMIP5 projections of sea level is partitioned at global and local scales, using a 164-member ensemble of twenty-first-century simulations. Local projections at New York City (NYSL) are highlighted. The partition between model uncertainty, scenario uncertainty, and internal variability in global mean sea level (GMSL) is qualitatively consistent with that of surface air temperature, with model uncertainty dominant for most of the twenty-first century. Locally, model uncertainty is dominant through 2100, with maxima in the North Atlantic and the Arctic Ocean. The model spread is driven largely by 4 of the 16 AOGCMs in the ensemble; these models exhibit outlying behavior in all RCPs and in both GMSL and NYSL. The magnitude of internal variability varies widely by location and across models, leading to differences of several decades in the local emergence of RCPs. The AOGCM spread, and its sensitivity to model exclusion and/or weighting, has important implications for sea level assessments, especially if a local risk management approach is utilized.

Variability↗
NASA NTRS2013

Simulation of the 23 July 2012 Extreme Space Weather Event: What if This Extremely Rare CME Was Earth Directed?

Extreme space weather events are known to cause adverse impacts on critical modern day technological infrastructure such as high-voltage electric power transmission grids. On 23 July 2012, NASA's Solar Terrestrial Relations Observatory-Ahead (STEREO-A) spacecraft observed in situ an extremely fast coronal mass ejection (CME) that traveled 0.96 astronomical units (approx. 1 AU) in about 19 h. Here we use the SpaceWeather Modeling Framework (SWMF) to perform a simulation of this rare CME.We consider STEREO-A in situ observations to represent the upstream L1 solar wind boundary conditions. The goal of this study is to examine what would have happened if this Rare-type CME was Earth-bound. Global SWMF-generated ground geomagnetic field perturbations are used to compute the simulated induced geoelectric field at specific ground-based active INTERMAGNET magnetometer sites. Simulation results show that while modeled global SYM-H index, a high-resolution equivalent of the Dst index, was comparable to previously observed severe geomagnetic storms such as the Halloween 2003 storm, the 23 July CME would have produced some of the largest geomagnetically induced electric fields, making it very geoeffective. These results have important practical applications for risk management of electrical power grids.

SPACE WEATHER↗
NASA NTRS2012

NASA System Safety Framework and Concepts for Implementation

This report has been developed by the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) Human Exploration and Operations Mission Directorate (HEOMD) Risk Management team knowledge capture forums.. This document provides a point-in-time, cumulative, summary of actionable key lessons learned in safety framework and concepts.

System Safety↗
NASA NTRS2015

SLS-SPEC-159 Cross-Program Design Specification for Natural Environments (DSNE) Revision D

This document is derived from the former National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) Constellation Program (CxP) document CxP 70023, titled "The Design Specification for Natural Environments (DSNE), Revision C." The original document has been modified to represent updated Design Reference Missions (DRMs) for the NASA Exploration Systems Development (ESD) Programs. The DSNE completes environment-related specifications for architecture, system-level, and lower-tier documents by specifying the ranges of environmental conditions that must be accounted for by NASA ESD Programs. To assure clarity and consistency, and to prevent requirements documents from becoming cluttered with extensive amounts of technical material, natural environment specifications have been compiled into this document. The intent is to keep a unified specification for natural environments that each Program calls out for appropriate application. This document defines the natural environments parameter limits (maximum and minimum values, energy spectra, or precise model inputs, assumptions, model options, etc.), for all ESD Programs. These environments are developed by the NASA Marshall Space Flight Center (MSFC) Natural Environments Branch (MSFC organization code: EV44). Many of the parameter limits are based on experience with previous programs, such as the Space Shuttle Program. The parameter limits contain no margin and are meant to be evaluated individually to ensure they are reasonable (i.e., do not apply unrealistic extreme-on-extreme conditions). The natural environments specifications in this document should be accounted for by robust design of the flight vehicle and support systems. However, it is understood that in some cases the Programs will find it more effective to account for portions of the environment ranges by operational mitigation or acceptance of risk in accordance with an appropriate program risk management plan and/or hazard analysis process. The DSNE is not intended as a definition of operational models or operational constraints, nor is it adequate, alone, for ground facilities which may have additional requirements (for example, building codes and local environmental constraints). "Natural environments," as the term is used here, refers to the environments that are not the result of intended human activity or intervention. It consists of a variety of external environmental factors (most of natural origin and a few of human origin) which impose restrictions or otherwise impact the development or operation of flight vehicles and destination surface systems. These natural environments include the following types of environments: Terrestrial environments at launch, abort, and normal landing sites (winds, temperatures, pressures, surface roughness, sea conditions, etc.); Space environments (ionizing radiation, orbital debris, meteoroids, thermosphere density, plasma, solar, Earth, and lunar-emitted thermal radiation, etc.); Destination environments (Lunar surface and orbital, Mars atmosphere and surface, near Earth asteroids, etc.). Many of the environmental specifications in this document are based on models, data, and environment descriptions contained in the CxP 70044, Constellation Program Natural Environment Definition for Design (NEDD). The NEDD provides additional detailed environment data and model descriptions to support analytical studies for ESD Programs. For background information on specific environments and their effects on spacecraft design and operations, the environment models, and the data used to generate the specifications contained in the DSNE, the reader is referred to the NEDD paragraphs listed in each section of the DSNE. Also, most of the environmental specifications in this document are tied specifically to the ESD DRMs in ESD-10012, Revision B, Exploration Systems Development Concept of Operations (ConOps). Coordination between these environment specifications and the DRMs must be maintained. This document should be compatible with the current ESD DRMs, but updates to the mission definitions and variations in interpretation may require adjustments to the environment specifications.

Roberts, Barry C.↗
NASA NTRS2016

Making Debris Avoidance Decisions for ESMO's EOS Mission Set

The presentation will cover the aspects of making debris risk decisions from the NASA Mission Director's perspective, specifically for NASA Earth Science Mission Operations (ESMO) Earth Observing System (EOS) mission set. ESMO has been involved in analyzing potential debris risk conjunctions with secondary objects since the inception of this discipline. Through the cumulated years of experience and continued exposure to various debris scenarios, ESMO's understanding of the problem and process to deal with this issue has evolved. The presentation will describe the evolution of the ESMO process, specifically as it relates to the maneuver execution and spacecraft risk management decision process. It will briefly cover the original Drag Make-Up Maneuver, several day, methodical manually intensive, ramp up waive off approach, to the present day more automated, pre-canned onboard command, tools based approach. The presentation will also cover the key information needed to make debris decisions and challenges in doing so while still trying to meet science goals, constellation constraints and manage resources. A slide or two at the end of the presentation, will be devoted to discussing what further improvements could be helpful to improve decision making and future process improvement plans challenges.

debris↗
NASA NTRS2017

The Pathway to a Safe and Effective Medication Formulary for Exploration Spaceflight

PURPOSE: Exploration space missions pose several challenges to providing a comprehensive medication formulary designed to accommodate the size and space limitations of the spacecraft; while addressing the individual medications needs and preferences of the Crew; the negative outcome of a degrading inventory over time, the inability to resupply before expiration dates; and the need to properly forecast the best possible medication candidates to treat conditions that will occur in the future. METHODS: The Pharmacotherapeutics Discipline has partnered with the Exploration Medical Capabilities (ExMC) Element to develop and propose a research pathway that is comprehensively focused on evidence-based models and theories, as well as on new diagnostic tools and treatments or preventive measures aimed at closure of the Med02 “Pharmacy” Gap; defined in the Human Research Program’s (HRP) risk-based research strategy. The Med02 Gap promotes the challenge to identify a strategy to ensure that medications used to treat medical conditions during exploration space missions are available, safe, and effective. It is abundantly clear that pharmaceutical intervention is an essential component of risk management planning for astronaut healthcare during exploration space. However, the quandary still remains of how to assemble a formulary that is comprehensive enough to prevent or treat anticipated medical events; and is also chemically stable, safe, and robust enough to have sufficient potency to last for the duration of an exploration space mission. In cases where that is not possible, addressing this Gap requires exploration of novel drug development techniques, dosage forms, and dosage delivery platforms that enhance chemical stability as well as therapeutic effectiveness. RESULTS: The proposed research pathway outlines the steps, processes, procedures, and a research portfolio aimed at identifying a capability that will provide a safe and effective pharmacy for any specific exploration Design Reference Mission (DRM). The proposed approach to building this research portfolio is to seek research projects that concentrate on four major focus areas; (1) Formulary selection, (2) Formulary potency and shelf life, (3) Formulary safety and toxicity, and (4) Novel technology and innovation such as portable real-time chemical analysis innovative drug therapies and dosage and delivery platforms. CONCLUSION: The research pathway has been completed and presented to the HRP. In spring 2017, it is scheduled to be reviewed by a panel of pharmaceutical and clinical experts that will evaluate the scientific merit and operational feasibility of the research pathway, as well as make suggestions for any warranted additions or improvements. Once finalized, the ExMC Element will proceed with the execution of this research pathway with the goal of gathering as much data, and learning as much as possible, to provide a safe and effective pharmaceutical formulary for use during exploration missions.

Daniels, V. R.↗
NASA NTRS2017

Designing to Sample the Unknown: Lessons from OSIRIS-REx Project Systems Engineering

On September 8, 2016, the third NASA New Frontiers mission launched on an Atlas V 411. The Origins, Spectral Interpretation, Resource Identification, Security-Regolith Explorer (OSIRIS-REx) will rendezvous with asteroid Bennu in 2018, collect a sample in 2020, and return that sample to Earth in September 2023. The development team has overcome a number of challenges in order to design and build a system that will make contact with an unexplored, airless, low-gravity body. This paper will provide an overview of the mission, then focus in on the system-level challenges and some of the key system-level processes. Some of the lessons here are unique to the type of mission, like discussion of operating at a largely-unknown, low-gravity object. Other lessons, particularly from the build phase, have broad implications. The OSIRIS-REx risk management process was particularly effective in achieving an on-time and under-budget development effort. The systematic requirements management and verification and the system validation also helped identify numerous potential problems. The final assessment of the OSIRIS-REx performance will need to wait until the sample is returned in 2023, but this post-launch assessment will capture some of the key systems-engineering lessons from the development team.

Asteroid↗
NASA NTRS2015

The Potential for Snow to Supply Human Water Demand in the Present and Future

Runoff from snowmelt is regarded as a vital water source for people and ecosystems throughout the Northern Hemisphere (NH). Numerous studies point to the threat global warming poses to the timing and magnitude of snow accumulation and melt. But analyses focused on snow supply do not show where changes to snowmelt runoff are likely to present the most pressing adaptation challenges, given sub-annual patterns of human water consumption and water availability from rainfall. We identify the NH basins where present spring and summer snowmelt has the greatest potential to supply the human water demand that would otherwise be unmet by instantaneous rainfall runoff. Using a multi-model ensemble of climate change projections, we find that these basins - which together have a present population of approx. 2 billion people - are exposed to a 67% risk of decreased snow supply this coming century. Further, in the multi-model mean, 68 basins (with a present population of more than 300 million people) transition from having sufficient rainfall runoff to meet all present human water demand to having insufficient rainfall runoff. However, internal climate variability creates irreducible uncertainty in the projected future trends in snow resource potential, with about 90% of snow-sensitive basins showing potential for either increases or decreases over the near-term decades. Our results emphasize the importance of snow for fulfilling human water demand in many NH basins, and highlight the need to account for the full range of internal climate variability in developing robust climate risk management decisions.

Mankin, Justin S.↗
NASA NTRS2017

Strategies for SEE Hardness Assurance - From Buy-It-And-Fly-It to Bullet Proof

This part of the course first outlines the conventional Single Event Effect (SEE), radiation hardness assurance (RHA) approach, which emphasizes mission success. Next, Dr. Ladbury will discuss the challenges posed by new satellite platforms (e.g., cubesats, nanosats, etc.), where cost and schedule receive emphasis equal to if not greater than mission success. These additional pressures, along with growing demands to reduce size, weight and power, coupled with increased performance, drive many projects toward expanding their use of commercial-off-the-shelf (COTS) technologies. While this may reduce direct parts cost and procurement lead times, it undermines many cost-reduction strategies used for conventional SEE RHA and can make radiation testing and analysis one of the most significant risks or worse, a risk neglected altogether. That section will end with some approaches for restoring balance in the troika of mission success, cost, and schedule. This is captured in SEE RHA as risk management: identify the threat, evaluate the threat, and mitigate the threat.

commercial-off-the-shelf (COTS)↗
NASA NTRS2017

Strategies for SEE Hardness Assurance From Buy-It-And-Fly-It to Bullet Proof

This part of the course first outlines the conventional Single Event Effect (SEE), radiation hardness assurance (RHA) approach, which emphasizes mission success. Next, Dr. Ladbury will discuss the challenges posed by new satellite platforms (e.g., cubesats, nanosats, etc.), where cost and schedule receive emphasis equal to if not greater than mission success. These additional pressures, along with growing demands to reduce size, weight and power, coupled with increased performance, drive many projects toward expanding their use of commercial-off-the-shelf (COTS) technologies. While this may reduce direct parts cost and procurement lead times, it undermines many cost-reduction strategies used for conventional SEE RHA and can make radiation testing and analysis one of the most significant risksor worse, a risk neglected altogether. That section will end with some approaches for restoring balance in the troika of mission success, cost, and schedule. This is captured in SEE RHA as risk management: identify the threat, evaluate the threat, and mitigate the threat.

commercial-off-the-shelf (COTS)↗
NASA NTRS2017

SLS-SPEC-159 Cross-Program Design Specification for Natural Environments (DSNE) Revision E

The DSNE completes environment-related specifications for architecture, system-level, and lower-tier documents by specifying the ranges of environmental conditions that must be accounted for by NASA ESD Programs. To assure clarity and consistency, and to prevent requirements documents from becoming cluttered with extensive amounts of technical material, natural environment specifications have been compiled into this document. The intent is to keep a unified specification for natural environments that each Program calls out for appropriate application. This document defines the natural environments parameter limits (maximum and minimum values, energy spectra, or precise model inputs, assumptions, model options, etc.), for all ESD Programs. These environments are developed by the NASA Marshall Space Flight Center (MSFC) Natural Environments Branch (MSFC organization code: EV44). Many of the parameter limits are based on experience with previous programs, such as the Space Shuttle Program. The parameter limits contain no margin and are meant to be evaluated individually to ensure they are reasonable (i.e., do not apply unrealistic extreme-on-extreme conditions). The natural environments specifications in this document should be accounted for by robust design of the flight vehicle and support systems. However, it is understood that in some cases the Programs will find it more effective to account for portions of the environment ranges by operational mitigation or acceptance of risk in accordance with an appropriate program risk management plan and/or hazard analysis process. The DSNE is not intended as a definition of operational models or operational constraints, nor is it adequate, alone, for ground facilities which may have additional requirements (for example, building codes and local environmental constraints). "Natural environments," as the term is used here, refers to the environments that are not the result of intended human activity or intervention. It consists of a variety of external environmental factors (most of natural origin and a few of human origin) which impose restrictions or otherwise impact the development or operation of flight vehicles and destination surface systems.

Roberts, Barry C.↗
NASA NTRS2017

Assessment of the State-of-the-Art of System-Wide Safety and Assurance Technologies

Since its initiation, the System-wide Safety Assurance Technologies (SSAT) Project has been focused on developing multidisciplinary tools and techniques that are verified and validated to ensure prevention of loss of property and life in NextGen and enable proactive risk management through predictive methods. To this end, four technical challenges have been listed to help realize the goals of SSAT, namely (i) assurance of flight critical systems, (ii) discovery of precursors to safety incidents, (iii) assuring safe human-systems integration, and (iv) prognostic algorithm design for safety assurance. The objective of this report is to provide an extensive survey of SSAT-related research accomplishments by researchers within and outside NASA to get an understanding of what the state-of-the-art is for technologies enabling each of the four technical challenges. We hope that this report will serve as a good resource for anyone interested in gaining an understanding of the SSAT technical challenges, and also be useful in the future for project planning and resource allocation for related research.

Roychoudhury, Indranil↗
NASA NTRS2017

Temperature Changes in the United States

Temperature is among the most important climatic elements used in decision-making. For example, builders and insurers use temperature data for planning and risk management while energy companies and regulators use temperature data to predict demand and set utility rates. Temperature is also a key indicator of climate change: recent increases are apparent over the land, ocean, and troposphere, and substantial changes are expected for this century. This chapter summarizes the major observed and projected changes in near-surface air temperature over the United States, emphasizing new data sets and model projections since the Third National Climate Assessment (NCA3). Changes are depicted using a spectrum of observations, including surface weather stations, moored ocean buoys, polar-orbiting satellites, and temperature-sensitive proxies. Projections are based on global models and downscaled products from CMIP5 (Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5) using a suite of Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs; see Ch. 4: Projections for more on RCPs and future scenarios).

Vose, R. S.↗