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NASA NTRS1982

Quantiles, parametric-select density estimation, and bi-information parameter estimators

A quantile-based approach to statistical analysis and probability modeling of data is presented which formulates statistical inference problems as functional inference problems in which the parameters to be estimated are density functions. Density estimators can be non-parametric (computed independently of model identified) or parametric-select (approximated by finite parametric models that can provide standard models whose fit can be tested). Exponential models and autoregressive models are approximating densities which can be justified as maximum entropy for respectively the entropy of a probability density and the entropy of a quantile density. Applications of these ideas are outlined to the problems of modeling: (1) univariate data; (2) bivariate data and tests for independence; and (3) two samples and likelihood ratios. It is proposed that bi-information estimation of a density function can be developed by analogy to the problem of identification of regression models.

Parzen, E.↗

NASA NTRS1973

On the normality and accuracy of simulated random processes.

Efficient methods of simulating stationary and nonstationary random processes and envelopes, by using a series of sine or cosine functions or by using the fast Fourier transform, have been proposed previously. Without applying the central limit theorem, it is shown in this paper that the simulated random processes are asymptotically Gaussian processes as the number of terms, N, of sine or cosine functions approaches infinity. The accuracy of the first-order probability densities of the simulated random processes is investigated by using the fast Fourier transform. Numerical results are computed with respect to the variation of the number of terms, N, of sine or cosine functions used for simulation. It is shown that within the practical range of N, such as 500, the accuracy is remarkably satisfactory even outside the region of 3 standard deviations.

Yang, J.-N.↗

NASA NTRS2011

Optimal Control via Self-Generated Stochasticity

The problem of global maxima of functionals has been examined. Mathematical roots of local maxima are the same as those for a much simpler problem of finding global maximum of a multi-dimensional function. The second problem is instability even if an optimal trajectory is found, there is no guarantee that it is stable. As a result, a fundamentally new approach is introduced to optimal control based upon two new ideas. The first idea is to represent the functional to be maximized as a limit of a probability density governed by the appropriately selected Liouville equation. Then, the corresponding ordinary differential equations (ODEs) become stochastic, and that sample of the solution that has the largest value will have the highest probability to appear in ODE simulation. The main advantages of the stochastic approach are that it is not sensitive to local maxima, the function to be maximized must be only integrable but not necessarily differentiable, and global equality and inequality constraints do not cause any significant obstacles. The second idea is to remove possible instability of the optimal solution by equipping the control system with a self-stabilizing device. The applications of the proposed methodology will optimize the performance of NASA spacecraft, as well as robot performance.

Zak, Michail↗

NASA NTRS1976

A quasi-Newton approach to optimization problems with probability density constraints

A quasi-Newton method is presented for minimizing a nonlinear function while constraining the variables to be nonnegative and sum to one. The nonnegativity constraints were eliminated by working with the squares of the variables and the resulting problem was solved using Tapia's general theory of quasi-Newton methods for constrained optimization. A user's guide for a computer program implementing this algorithm is provided.

Tapia, R. A.↗

NASA NTRS1967

Optimum quantization.

Optimum uniform quantizer structures for digital data with known continuous probability density noting telemetering of stationary Gaussian Markov process functions

Kurtenbach, A. J.↗

DOE OSTI2022

The exact exchange–correlation potential in time-dependent density functional theory: Choreographing electrons with steps and peaks

The time-dependent exchange–correlation potential has the unusual task of directing fictitious non-interacting electrons to move with exactly the same probability density as true interacting electrons. This has intriguing implications for its structure, especially in the non-perturbative regime, leading to step and peak features that cannot be captured by bootstrapping any ground-state functional approximation. Here, we review what has been learned about these features in the exact exchange–correlation potential of time-dependent density functional theory in the past decade or so and implications for the performance of simulations when electrons are driven far from any ground state.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

DOE OSTI2025

Control-Affine Schrödinger Bridge and Generalized Bohm Potential

From a stochastic control perspective, the Schrödinger bridge is a density-valued continuous curve parameterized by time that connects a given pair of initial and terminal probability densities via minimum effort controlled Brownian motion. The control-affine Schrödinger bridge extends this idea to a generic control-affine Itô diffusion, possibly with an additive state cost. Here, in this letter, we recast the necessary conditions of optimality for the control-affine Schrödinger bridge problem as a two point boundary value problem for a quantum mechanical Schrödinger PDE with complex potential. This complex-valued potential is a generalization of the real-valued Bohm potential in quantum mechanics. Our derived potential is akin to the optical potential in nuclear physics where the real part of the potential encodes elastic scattering (transmission of wave function), and the imaginary part encodes inelastic scattering (absorption of wave function). The key takeaway is that the process noise that drives the evolution of probability densities induces an absorbing medium in the evolution of wave function. These results make new connections between control theory and non-equilibrium statistical mechanics through the lens of quantum mechanics.

Markov processes↗

DOE OSTI2021

Unitarity of quantum tunneling decay for an analytical exact non-Hermitian resonant-state approach

Highlights: • Foundations of quantum mechanics • Quantum decay • Non-Hermitian Hamiltonian • Unitarity • Resonant state By using an analytical exact non-Hermitian formalism for quantum tunneling decay that involves the expansion of the decaying wave function as a linear combination of resonant states and transient functions associated with the complex poles of the outgoing Green’s function to the problem, it is shown that the integrated decaying probability density in the whole space satisfies unitarity at each value of time.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗

NASA NTRS1974

Recursive estimation of prior probabilities using the mixture approach

The problem of estimating the prior probabilities q sub k of a mixture of known density functions f sub k(X), based on a sequence of N statistically independent observations is considered. It is shown that for very mild restrictions on f sub k(X), the maximum likelihood estimate of Q is asymptotically efficient. A recursive algorithm for estimating Q is proposed, analyzed, and optimized. For the M = 2 case, it is possible for the recursive algorithm to achieve the same performance with the maximum likelihood one. For M 2, slightly inferior performance is the price for having a recursive algorithm. However, the loss is computable and tolerable.

Kazakos, D.↗

NASA NTRS1982

Fokker-Planck response of stochastic satellites

The present investigation is concerned with the effects of stochastic geometry and random environmental torques on the pointing accuracy of spinning and three-axis stabilized satellites. The study of pointing accuracies requires a knowledge of the rates of error growth over and above any criteria for the asymptotic stability of the satellites. For this reason the investigation is oriented toward the determination of the statistical properties of the responses of the satellites. The geometries of the satellites are considered stochastic so as to have a phenomenological model of the motions of the flexible structural elements of the satellites. A widely used method of solving stochastic equations is the Fokker-Planck approach where the equations are assumed to define a Markoff process and the transition probability densities of the responses are computed directly as a function of time. The Fokker-Planck formulation is used to analyze the response vector of a rigid satellite.

Huang, T. C.↗

NASA NTRS1989

Test particle calculations of pick-up ions in the vicinity of Comet Giacobini-Zinner

Ionization of cometary neutral molecules produces ions which are picked-up by the solar wind. The cometary ion pick-up process for Comet Giacobini-Zinner is studied using a test particle method in which trajectories are numerically calculated for several thousand ions whose initial locations were chosen randomly with probability proportional to the neutral density. The cometary ion distribution function was calculated at several locations upstream of the bow shock. Several types of magnetic fluctuations were included. Circularly and linearly polarized monochromatic waves result in less pitch-angle scattering of pick-up ions than turbulent fluctuations which have about the same amplitude. Some anisotropy remains in the distribution function just upstream of the shock, even for the turbulent fluctuations.

Cravens, T. E.↗

NASA NTRS1981

Effect of long-term intensity variations on pulsar searches and the pulsar luminosity function

Long-term intensity data for five pulsars are used to obtain the probability density distribution of intensities for each pulsar, and it is found that they are described satisfactorily by chi-squared distributions. Based on these distributions, the number of new pulsars expected to be found on repeatedly searching the same region of the sky with the same sensitivity is given. Nearly 25 percent more new pulsars are expected to be found on the first repeat search. It is also shown that the luminosity function deduced from either a single survey or surveys with very different sensitivities is not affected by the omission of flux density variations in the calculation of selection effects. Finally, a method is proposed for deriving the luminosity function by combining the different searches of a given area on the basis of a probabilistic approach to the evaluation of selection effects.

Krishnamohan, S.↗

NASA NTRS2000

Stimulus configuration determines the detectability of motion signals in noise

We measured the detectability of moving signal dots in dynamic noise to determine whether local motion signals are preferentially combined along an axis parallel to the direction of motion. Observers were asked to detect a signal composed of three dots moving in a linear trajectory among dynamic noise dots. The signal dots were collinear and equally spaced in a configuration that was either parallel to or perpendicular to their trajectory. The probability of detecting the signal was measured as a function of noise density, over a range of signal dot spacings from 0.5 degrees to 5.0 degrees. At any given noise density, the signal in the parallel configuration was more detectable than that in the perpendicular configuration. Our four observers could tolerate 1.5-2.5 times more noise in the parallel configuration. This improvement is not due merely to temporal summation between consecutive dots in the parallel trajectory. Temporal summation functions measured on our observers indicate that the benefit from spatial coincidence of the dots lasts for no more than 50 ms, whereas the increased detectability of the parallel configuration is observed up to the largest temporal separations tested (210 ms). These results demonstrate that dots arranged parallel to the signal trajectory are more easily detected than those arranged perpendicularly. Moreover, this enhancement points to the existence of visual mechanisms that preferentially organize motion information parallel to the direction of motion.

Non-NASA Center↗

DOE OSTI2023

Efficient 3D Molecular Design with an E(3) Invariant Transformer VAE

This work introduces a three-dimensional (3D) invariant graph-to-string transformer variational autoencoders (VAE) (Vagrant) for generating molecules with accurate density functional theory (DFT)-level properties. Vagrant learns to model the joint probability distribution of a 3D molecular structure and its properties by encoding molecular structures into a 3D-aware latent space. Directed navigation through this latent space implicitly optimizes the 3D structure of a molecule, and the latent embedding can be used to condition a generative transformer to predict the candidate structure as a one-dimensional (1D) sequence. Additionally, we introduce two novel sampling methods that exploit the latent characteristics of a VAE to improve performance. Here, we show that our method outperforms comparable 3D autoregressive and diffusion methods for predicting quantum chemical property values of novel molecules in terms of both sample quality and computational efficiency.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

DOE OSTI2023

Further development of finite-temperature density functional theory (Technical Report on FG02-08ER46496)

The final year of funding was spent supporting research into extending conditional probability theory to generate the thermal dependence of PBE. The necessary background work led to a paper being published on the uniform electron gas (Dennis Perchak, Ryan J. McCarty, and Kieron Burke, Phys. Rev. B 105, 165143 (2022).). The graduate student John Kozlowski also contributed to a mathematical paper about DFT (Steven Crisostomo, Ryan Pederson, John Kozlowski, Bhupalee Kalita, Antonio C. Cancio, Kiril Datchev, Adam Wasserman, Suhwan Song, and Kieron Burke, Letters in Mathematical Physics 113, 42 (2023).).

75 CONDENSED MATTER PHYSICS, SUPERCONDUCTIVITY AND↗

NASA NTRS1992

Homogeneous quantum electrodynamic turbulence

The electromagnetic field equations and Dirac equations for oppositely charged wave functions are numerically time-integrated using a spatial Fourier method. The numerical approach used, a spectral transform technique, is based on a continuum representation of physical space. The coupled classical field equations contain a dimensionless parameter which sets the strength of the nonlinear interaction (as the parameter increases, interaction volume decreases). For a parameter value of unity, highly nonlinear behavior in the time-evolution of an individual wave function, analogous to ideal fluid turbulence, is observed. In the truncated Fourier representation which is numerically implemented here, the quantum turbulence is homogeneous but anisotropic and manifests itself in the nonlinear evolution of equilibrium modal spatial spectra for the probability density of each particle and also for the electromagnetic energy density. The results show that nonlinearly interacting fermionic wave functions quickly approach a multi-mode, dynamic equilibrium state, and that this state can be determined by numerical means.

Shebalin, John V.↗

NASA NTRS1972

Nonstationary envelope process and first excursion probability.

The definition of stationary random envelope proposed by Cramer and Leadbetter, is extended to the envelope of nonstationary random process possessing evolutionary power spectral densities. The density function, the joint density function, the moment function, and the crossing rate of a level of the nonstationary envelope process are derived. Based on the envelope statistics, approximate solutions to the first excursion probability of nonstationary random processes are obtained. In particular, applications of the first excursion probability to the earthquake engineering problems are demonstrated in detail.

Yang, J.-N.↗

NASA NTRS1993

Presenting the Rain-Sea Interaction Facility

The new Rain-Sea Interaction Facility (RSIF) was established at GSFC/WFF and the first finds are presented. The unique feature of this laboratory is the ability to systematically study microwave scattering from a water surface roughened by artificial rain, for which the droplets are at terminal velocity. The fundamental instruments and systems (e.g., the rain simulator, scatterometers, and surface elevation probes) were installed and evaluated during these first experiments - so the majority of the data were obtained with the rain simulator at 1 m above the water tank. From these initial experiments, three new models were proposed: the square-root function for NCS vs. R, the log Gaussian model for ring-wave elevation frequency spectrum, and the Erland probability density distribution for back scattered power. Rain rate is the main input for these models, although the coefficients may be dependent upon other factors (drop-size distribution, fall velocity, radar configuration, etc.). The facility is functional and we foresee collaborative studies with investigators who are engaged in measuring and modeling rain-sea interaction processes.

Bliven, Larry F.↗