Calibration of thermal spray microstructure simulations using Bayesian optimization
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Deep learning (DL) models are extensively used as surrogate models for high-fidelity simulations of multiphase fluid flow in porous media at large scales, enabling fast forecasts of the spatial–temporal evolution of three-dimensional (3D) state variables in geological carbon storage (GCS). However, training these models in high-dimensional space remains computationally demanding and prone to overfitting because of limited training data. This paper presents a novel workflow to address these challenges by integrating dimension reduction (DR) methods. Here, the proposed workflow employed pre-trained DR models to extract the latent variables of geological models and state variables and utilized the multi-layer perceptron (MLP) for constructing mapping functions between the input and output variables in latent spaces. Subsequently, the pre-trained reconstruction models converted the MLP-predicted latent state variables to their original high-dimensional form. Furthermore, we proposed a novel strategy for the DR and reconstruction of 3D saturation fields to account for the unique data characteristics of sparsity, nonuniformity, and discontinuity. The proposed strategy applied PCA and inverse PCA for 2D average saturation fields and developed a DL-based 3D reconstruction model, leveraging three 2D average saturation fields as input to produce a 3D saturation field as output. The pre-training of DR and reconstruction models and training of MLP models were conducted on 84 Gulf of Mexico (GoM) simulations and evaluated on 12 testing simulations. Each simulation contained 720 monthly time steps, with the first 360 months as the injection period and the rest as the post-injection period. The proposed workflow, incorporating DR and DL models, accurately predicts the normalized 3D pressure fields, achieving mean square error (MSE) of 2.92 × 10 -7 compared to the ground truth obtained from a full-physics simulator. Furthermore, the proposed strategy outperformed PCA and convolutional autoencoder (CAE) models on 3D saturation fields, resulting in minor workflow prediction errors with an MSE of 2.93 × 10 -5 . The results suggest the proposed workflow provides sufficient predictive fidelity across temporal and spatial scales, and enables a speedup of 160 times compared to the full-physics simulator, facilitating improved decision-making and risk assessment for large-scale GCS management in real-time scenarios.
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The polymer network structure of epoxy thermosets plays a significant role in its final material properties. However, the effects of mild thermal exposure on these network structures are poorly studied. In this work, wide-angle X-ray scattering was used to investigate the polymer network structure of two epoxy thermosets: homopolymerized bisphenol A (BPA) epoxy resin and BPA epoxy resin cured with a polyether amine hardener (BPA/T-403). Using density functional theory and wide-angle X-ray scattering, insights into the polymer network structure were obtained. Diffraction features were determined to originate from hardener-to-hardener molecular distance, perpendicular π–π stacking of aromatic p-phenylene rings, and the average carbon–carbon distance in the polymer. Thermal exposure was found to permanently alter these structural features for both thermosets, with an increase in the π–π stacking distance. Homopolymerized BPA had an additional decrease in the hardener-to-hardener distance. These structural alterations were found to be detectable using Fourier transform infrared spectroscopy and Raman spectroscopy, with changes in the hardener-to-hardener distance having the largest variations in the resulting spectra specifically at the aromatic and ether frequencies.
As water treatment technology has improved, the amount of available process data has substantially increased, making real-time, data-driven fault detection a reality. One shortcoming of the fault detection literature is that methods are usually evaluated by comparing their performance on hand-picked, short-term case studies, which yields no insight into long-term performance. In this work, we first evaluate multiple statistical and machine learning approaches for detrending process data. Then, we evaluate the performance of a PCA-based fault detection approach, applied to the detrended data, to monitor influent water quality, filtrate quality, and membrane fouling of an ultrafiltration membrane system for indirect potable reuse. Based on two short case studies, the adaptive lasso detrending method is selected, and the performance of the multivariate approach is evaluated over more than a year. The method is tested for different sets of three critical tuning parameters, and we find that for long-term, autonomous monitoring to be successful, these parameters should be carefully evaluated. However, in comparison with industry standards of simpler, univariate monitoring or daily pressure decay tests, multivariate monitoring produces substantial benefits in long-term testing.
Type Ia supernovae (SNe Ia) are widely used to measure the expansion of the Universe. Improving distance measurements of SNe Ia is one technique to better constrain the acceleration of expansion and determine its physical nature. This document develops a new SNe Ia spectral energy distribution (SED) model, called the SUpernova Generator And Reconstructor (SUGAR), which improves the spectral description of SNe Ia, and consequently could improve the distance measurements. This model was constructed from SNe Ia spectral properties and spectrophotometric data from the Nearby Supernova Factory collaboration. In a first step, a principal component analysis-like method was used on spectral features measured at maximum light, which allowed us to extract the intrinsic properties of SNe Ia. Next, the intrinsic properties were used to extract the average extinction curve. Third, an interpolation using Gaussian processes facilitated using data taken at different epochs during the lifetime of an SN Ia and then projecting the data on a fixed time grid. Finally, the three steps were combined to build the SED model as a function of time and wavelength. This is the SUGAR model. Results. The main advancement in SUGAR is the addition of two additional parameters to characterize SNe Ia variability. The first is tied to the properties of SNe Ia ejecta velocity and the second correlates with their calcium lines. The addition of these parameters, as well as the high quality of the Nearby Supernova Factory data, makes SUGAR an accurate and efficient model for describing the spectra of normal SNe Ia as they brighten and fade. The performance of this model makes it an excellent SED model for experiments like the Zwicky Transient Facility, the Large Synoptic Survey Telescope, or the Wide Field Infrared Survey Telescope.
Nuclear power plant (NPP) monitoring and diagnostic centers are actively investigating and implementing automated anomaly detection algorithms to help plants catch anomalies sooner, thereby preventing or reducing the duration of unexpected shutdowns. Current machine learning-based anomaly detection methods are expected to be highly effective during stable, full-power operations because NPPs typically operate as baseload power generators, meaning there are extensive operating data available from plant equipment. However, it is expected that anomaly detection methods will face significant challenges during transient conditions (i.e., when power output falls below full power) because plants only occasionally operate at these lower power levels, generating sparse transient operational data, and resulting in false alarms or missed detections. Here, to address this issue, transfer learning is used, which for this problem leverages knowledge (in the form of learned features) from stable, full-power operations to improve detection accuracy during transient conditions, even with limited data. In this effort, a novel subspace approach is developed to transfer a subset of the data features from full power operation to transients. This approach is validated through experiments using synthetic data and was found to outperform two baseline transfer learning approaches in anomaly detection performance across a range of amounts of transient data used in the training process.
ABSTRACT Measurements of large-scale structure are interpreted using theoretical predictions for the matter distribution, including potential impacts of baryonic physics. We constrain the feedback strength of baryons jointly with cosmology using weak lensing and galaxy clustering observables (3 × 2pt) of Dark Energy Survey (DES) Year 1 data in combination with external information from baryon acoustic oscillations (BAO) and Planck cosmic microwave background polarization. Our baryon modelling is informed by a set of hydrodynamical simulations that span a variety of baryon scenarios; we span this space via a Principal Component (PC) analysis of the summary statistics extracted from these simulations. We show that at the level of DES Y1 constraining power, one PC is sufficient to describe the variation of baryonic effects in the observables, and the first PC amplitude (Q1) generally reflects the strength of baryon feedback. With the upper limit of Q1 prior being bound by the Illustris feedback scenarios, we reach $\sim 20{{\ \rm per\ cent}}$ improvement in the constraint of $S_8=\sigma _8(\Omega _{\rm m}/0.3)^{0.5}=0.788^{+0.018}_{-0.021}$ compared to the original DES 3 × 2pt analysis. This gain is driven by the inclusion of small-scale cosmic shear information down to 2.5 arcmin, which was excluded in previous DES analyses that did not model baryonic physics. We obtain $S_8=0.781^{+0.014}_{-0.015}$ for the combined DES Y1+Planck EE+BAO analysis with a non-informative Q1 prior. In terms of the baryon constraints, we measure $Q_1=1.14^{+2.20}_{-2.80}$ for DES Y1 only and $Q_1=1.42^{+1.63}_{-1.48}$ for DESY1+Planck EE+BAO, allowing us to exclude one of the most extreme AGN feedback hydrodynamical scenario at more than 2σ.
The microscopy research at the Bionanoprobe (currently at beamline 9-ID and later 2-ID after APS-U) of Argonne National Laboratory focuses on applying synchrotron X-ray fluorescence (XRF) techniques to obtain trace elemental mappings of cryogenic biological samples to gain insights about their role in critical biological activities. The elemental mappings and the morphological aspects of the biological samples, in this instance, the bacterium Escherichia coli ( E. Coli ), also serve as label-free biological fingerprints to identify E. coli cells that have been treated differently. The key limitations of achieving good identification performance are the extraction of cells from raw XRF measurements via binary conversion, definition of features, noise floor and proportion of cells treated differently in the measurement. Automating cell extraction from raw XRF measurements across different types of chemical treatment and the implementation of machine-learning models to distinguish cells from the background and their differing treatments are described. Principal components are calculated from domain knowledge specific features and clustered to distinguish healthy and poisoned cells from the background without manual annotation. The cells are ranked via fuzzy clustering to recommend regions of interest for automated experimentation. The effects of dwell time and the amount of data required on the usability of the software are also discussed.
Soil respiration (R S ), the soil-to-atmosphere CO 2 flux that is a major component of the global carbon cycle, is strongly influenced by local soil temperature (T soil ) and water content (SWC). Regional to global-scale R S modelling thus requires this information at local scales, but few high-quality, wall-to-wall (global) T soil and SWC data exist. As a result, such modelling efforts commonly use air temperature (T air ) and monthly precipitation (P m ) as surrogate predictors, but their site-scale accuracy and potential bias are unknown. In this report we used monthly data from 880 sites across a wide variety of different environmental conditions (i.e., climate, ecosystem type, elevation, vegetation leaf habit and drainage conditions) to determine the suitability of T air as a surrogate for T soil , and data from 507 sites to examine the suitability of P m as a surrogate for SWC. Site-specific linear and second-order exponential non-linear models were compared using model evaluation metrics (i.e., slope, p-value of slope, root mean square error [RMSE], index of agreement and model efficiency). We found that T soil and T air are highly correlated and explain similar R S variability. In contrast, P m is not a good surrogate for SWC, even though P m explains a similar amount of R S variability to SWC. The wide variability in the site-specific relationships between R S and SWC means that no single relationship can be used for large-scale modelling. The results from this study support the use of T air in continental-to-global scale R S models, and highlight the urgent need for continental-to-global scale SWC datasets for the modelling and evaluation of future soil carbon dynamics under global climate change.
The utility of hyperspectral imaging (HSI) has been well established for a wide array of applications but has generated a need for automated screening of high volumes of large HSI cubes. We report two important automated algorithms for more efficient standoff processing: atmospheric correction and target detection. The atmospheric correction method is based on a fast asymmetric least squares approach that is applied on a pixel-by-pixel basis. Here, the correction can be applied to entire images without manually identifying regions of interest and utilizes only in-scene information, no ancillary modeling of the atmosphere is required. An iterative target detection approach is also introduced which demonstrates faster speeds relative to moving window approaches. The target detection algorithm classifies each pixel as true target detections, near target detections, clutter, and no-calls. The algorithms were tested on forty images of twenty-two solid mineral targets placed at a 14-meter standoff distance allowing general observations on expected detection performance for a variety of minerals. In addition to identifying anomalous pixels, the inclusion of “no-calls” reduced the number of false detections significantly.
Geothermal power plants typically show decreasing heat and power production rates over time. Mitigation strategies include optimizing the management of existing wells - increasing or decreasing the fluid flow rates across the wells - and drilling new wells at appropriate locations. The latter is expensive, time-consuming, and subject to many engineering constraints, but the former is a viable mechanism for periodic adjustment of the available fluid allocations. Data and supporting literature from a study describing a new approach combining reservoir modeling and machine learning to produce models that enable strategies for the mitigation of decreased heat and power production rates over time for geothermal power plants. The computational approach used enables translation of sets of potential flow rates for the active wells into reservoir-wide estimates of produced energy and discovery of optimal flow allocations among the studied sets. In our computational experiments, we utilize collections of simulations for a specific reservoir (which capture subsurface characterization and realize history matching) along with machine learning models that predict temperature and pressure timeseries for production wells. We evaluate this approach using an "open-source" reservoir we have constructed that captures many of the characteristics of Brady Hot Springs, a commercially operational geothermal field in Nevada, USA. Selected results from a reservoir model of Brady Hot Springs itself are presented to show successful application to an existing system. In both cases, energy predictions prove to be highly accurate: all observed prediction errors do not exceed 3.68% for temperatures and 4.75% for pressures. In a cumulative energy estimation, we observe prediction errors that are less than 4.04%. A typical reservoir simulation for Brady Hot Springs completes in approximately 4 hours, whereas our machine learning models yield accurate 20-year predictions for temperatures, pressures, and produced energy in 0.9 seconds. This paper aims to demonstrate how the models and techniques from our study can be applied to achieve rapid exploration of controlled parameters and optimization of other geothermal reservoirs. Includes a synthetic, yet realistic, model of a geothermal reservoir, referred to as open-source reservoir (OSR). OSR is a 10-well (4 injection wells and 6 production wells) system that resembles Brady Hot Springs (a commercially operational geothermal field in Nevada, USA) at a high level but has a number of sufficiently modified characteristics (which renders any possible similarity between specific characteristics like temperatures and pressures as purely random). We study OSR through CMG simulations with a wide range of flow allocation scenarios. Includes a dataset with 101 simulated scenarios that cover the period of time between 2020 and 2040 and a link to the published paper about this project, where we focus on the Machine Learning work for predicting OSR's energy production based on the simulation data, as well as a link to the GitHub repository where we have published the code we have developed (please refer to the repository's readme file to see instructions on how to run the code). Additional links are included to associated work led by the USGS to identify geologic factors associated with well productivity in geothermal fields. Below are the high-level steps for applying the same modeling + ML process to other geothermal reservoirs: 1. Develop a geologic model of the geothermal field. The location of faults, upflow zones, aquifers, etc. need to be accounted for as accurately as possible 2. The geologic model needs to be converted to a reservoir model that can be used in a reservoir simulator, such as, for instance, CMG STARS, TETRAD, or FALCON 3. Using native state modeling, the initial temperature and pressure distributions are evaluated, and they become the initial conditions for dynamic reservoir simulations 4....
Incorporating detailed chemical kinetic models is critical for accurate simulations of reacting flows. However, detailed models involve a large number of thermochemical (TC) state variables. Solving the governing equations to evolve these TC variables becomes impractical for real-world applications. In this work, we propose an autoencoder (AE) neural network (NN)-based reduced model to accelerate such simulations. The AE NN is first trained to find a low-dimensional latent representation of the TC states. Then, the evolving state of a chemical system can be tracked by solving the equations of the latent variables instead of the original TC equations. We demonstrate the reduced model in a syngas CO/H 2 combustion system, using training data collected from canonical perfectly stirred reactors (PSRs). It is found that the AE model can reduce the dimension of the combustion system from 12 to 2 while maintaining low reconstruction error and excellent elemental mass conservation for the test dataset. In the a posteriori test, the combustion states obtained from solving the two latent equations are compared to those from solving the 12 equations of the full model. The AE reduced method is found to be able to capture the diverse combustion states on the top two branches of the S-curve well including the extinction turning point, but with higher prediction errors for states near the ignition turning point.
Point-source spectrophotometric (single-point) light curves of Earth-like planets contain a surprising amount of information about the spatial features of those worlds. Spatially resolving these light curves is important for assessing time-varying surface features and the existence of an atmosphere, which in turn is critical to life on Earth and significant for determining habitability on exoplanets. Given that Earth is the only celestial body confirmed to harbor life, treating it as a proxy exoplanet by analyzing time-resolved spectral images provides a benchmark in the search for habitable exoplanets. The Earth Polychromatic Imaging Camera (EPIC) on the Deep Space Climate Observatory (DSCOVR) provides such an opportunity, with observations of ∼5000 full-disk sunlit Earth images each year at 10 wavelengths with high temporal frequency. We disk-integrate these spectral images to create single-point light curves and decompose them into principal components (PCs). Using machine-learning techniques to relate the PCs to six preselected spatial features, we find that the first and fourth PCs of the single-point light curves, contributing ∼83.23% of the light-curve variability, contain information about low and high clouds, respectively. Surface information relevant to the contrast between land and ocean reflectance is contained in the second PC, while individual land subtypes are not easily distinguishable (<0.1% total light-curve variation). We build an Earth model by systematically altering the spatial features to derive causal relationships to the PCs. This model can serve as a baseline for analyzing Earth-like exoplanets and guide wavelength selection and sampling strategies for future observations.
Two different types of analyses were done on data from a study in which eye movements and other variables were recorded while four pilots executed landing sequences in a Boeing 737 simulation. Various conditions were manupulated, including changes in turbulence, starting position, and instrumentation. Control inputs were analyzed in the context of the various conditions and compared against ratings of workload obtained using the Cooper-Harper scale. A number of eye-scanning measures including mean dwell time and transition from one instrument to another were entered into a principal components factor analysis. The results show a differentiation between control inputs and eye-scanning behavior. This shows the need for improved definition of workload and experiments to uncover the important differences among control inputs, eye-scanning and cognitive processes of the pilot.
A variety of classifications during both raw and transformed MSS and TM data sets from 4 September 1982 were performed for the Logan County, West Virginia study area. The object was to compare the utility of TM and MSS data for delineating small, irregular ground features, particularly surface mines, and also to test data reduction/transformation techniques (band selection, canonical analysis, and principal components) in relation to a traditional means of unsupervised classification. Statistical results demonstrate that, on the average, the TM classifications yielded an overall .53 factor of improvement relative to the MSS classifications. When the accuracies for only three minor (in terms of areal extent) land use categories are examined, the factor of improvement for TM over MSS increases to 1.48; i.e., the TM is nearly one and one-half times better than the MSS for delineating small and irregular ground features such as contour strip mines.
Conventional enhancements for the color display of multispectral images are based on independent contrast modifications or 'stretches' of three input images. This approach is not effective if the image channels are highly correlated or if the image histograms are strongly bimodal or more complex. Any of several procedures that tend to 'stretch' color saturation while leaving hue unchanged may better utilize the full range of colors for the display of image information. Two conceptually different enhancements are discussed: the 'decorrelation stretch', based on principal-component (PC) analysis, and the 'stretch' of 'hue' - 'saturation' - intensity (HSI) transformed data. The PC transformation in scene-dependent, but the HSI transformation is invariant. Examples of images enhanced by conventional linear stretches, decorrelation stretch, and by stretches of HSI transformed data are compared. Schematic variation diagrams or two- and three-dimensional histograms are used to illustrate the 'decorrelation stretch' method and the effect of the different enhancements.
The Principal Component Spectral Analysis and the Quasi-steady Three-dimensional Histogram techniques provide the means to describe the microgravity acceleration environment of an entire mission on a single plot. This allows a straight forward comparison of the microgravity environment between missions, carriers, and conditions. As shown in this report, the PCSA and QTH techniques bring both the range and median of the microgravity environment onto a single page for an entire mission or another time period or condition of interest. These single pages may then be used to compare similar analyses of other missions, time periods or conditions. The PCSA plot is based on the frequency distribution of the vibrational energy and is normally used for an acceleration data set containing frequencies above the lowest natural frequencies of the vehicle. The QTH plot is based on the direction and magnitude of the acceleration and is normally used for acceleration data sets with frequency content less than 0.1 Hz. Various operating conditions are made evident by using PCSA and QTH plots. Equipment operating either full or part time with sufficient magnitude to be considered a disturbance is very evident as well as equipment contributing to the background acceleration environment. A source's magnitude and/or frequency variability is also evident by the source's appearance on a PCSA plot. The PCSA and QTH techniques are valuable tools for extracting useful information from acceleration data taken over large spans of time. This report shows that these techniques provide a tool for comparison between different sets of microgravity acceleration data, for example different missions, different activities within a mission, and/or different attitudes within a mission. These techniques, as well as others, may be employed in order to derive useful information from acceleration data.