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NASA NTRS2010

Use of MODIS Terra Imagery to Estimate Surface Water Quality Standards, Using Lake Thonotosassa, Florida, as a Case Study

Lake Thonotosassa is a highly eutrophied lake located in an area with rapidly growing population in the Tampa Bay watershed, Florida. The Florida Administrative Code has designated its use for "recreation, propagation and maintenance of a healthy, well-balanced population of fish and wildlife." Although this lake has been the subject of efforts to improve water quality since 1970, overall water quality has remained below the acceptable state standards, and has a high concentration of nutrients. This condition is of great concern to public health since it has favored episodic blooms of Cyanobacteria. Some Cyanobacterial species release toxins that can reach humans through drinking water, fish consumption, and direct contact with contaminated water. The lake has been historically popular for fishing and water sports, and its overflow water drains into the Hillsborough River, the main supply of municipal water for the City of Tampa, this explains why it has being constantly monitored in situ for water quality by the Environmental Protection Commission of Hillsborough County (EPC). Advances in remote sensing technology, however, open the possibility of facilitating similar types of monitoring in this and similar lakes, further contributing to the implementation of surveillance systems that would benefit not just public health, but also tourism and ecosystems. Although traditional application of this technology to water quality has been focused on much larger coastal water bodies like bays and estuaries, this study evaluates the feasibility of its application on a 46.6 km2 freshwater lake. Using surface reflectance products from Moderate-Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) Terra, this study evaluates associations between remotely sensed data and in situ data from the EPC. The parameters analyzed are the surface water quality standards used by the State of Florida and general indicators of trophic status.

Moreno, Max J.↗

DOE OSTI2022

Transmission history of SARS-CoV-2 in humans and white-tailed deer

The emergence of a novel pathogen in a susceptible population can cause rapid spread of infection. High prevalence of SARS-CoV-2 infection in white-tailed deer ( Odocoileus virginianus ) has been reported in multiple locations, likely resulting from several human-to-deer spillover events followed by deer-to-deer transmission. Knowledge of the risk and direction of SARS-CoV-2 transmission between humans and potential reservoir hosts is essential for effective disease control and prioritisation of interventions. Using genomic data, we reconstruct the transmission history of SARS-CoV-2 in humans and deer, estimate the case finding rate and attempt to infer relative rates of transmission between species. We found no evidence of direct or indirect transmission from deer to human. However, with an estimated case finding rate of only 4.2%, spillback to humans cannot be ruled out. The extensive transmission of SARS-CoV-2 within deer populations and the large number of unsampled cases highlights the need for active surveillance at the human–animal interface.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2022

Latent demand for electricity in sub-Saharan Africa: A review

Universal access to electricity is an essential part of sub-Saharan Africa's path to development. With the United Nations setting Goal 7 of its sustainable development goals to be universal access to clean, reliable and affordable electricity, substantial research efforts have been made to optimize electricity supply based on projected demand in sub-Saharan African (SSA) countries. Our study reviews the literature on electricity demand, with a specific focus on latent demand (i.e., electricity demand that would exist if the necessary techno-economic conditions were met) in SSA. We found that out of 57 electricity demand papers reviewed, only 3 (5%) incorporated latent demand in their electricity demand projections. Furthermore, majority of the literature on electricity consumption and demand estimation in SSA use econometric models to identify determinants of electricity consumption and project future demand. We find that population density, urbanization, household income, electricity price, market value of crops and availability of natural resources to be significant determinants of electricity consumption in SSA. We conclude the review by proposing a methodology, and providing an initial proof of concept, for more accurately projecting latent demand in sub-Saharan Africa. Incorporating latent demand in electrification models would help inform energy sector stakeholders (e.g., investors and policymakers) about which sectors and geographic locations hold potential for wealth creation via electricity access.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

DOE OSTI2021

Epidemiology, Clinical Features, and Outcomes of Coccidioidomycosis, Utah, 2006–2015

On the basis of a 1957 geographic Coccidioides seropositivity survey, 3 counties in southwestern Utah, USA, were considered coccidioidomycosis-endemic, but there has been a paucity of information on the disease burden in Utah since. We report findings from a recent clinical and epidemiologic study of coccidioidomycosis in Utah. To describe clinical characteristics, we identified all coccidioidomycosis cases in an integrated health system in the state during 2006–2015. For epidemiologic analysis, we used cases reported to the Utah Department of Health during 2009–2015. Mean state incidence was 1.83 cases/100,000 population/year. Washington County, in southwestern Utah, had the highest incidence, 17.2 cases/100,000 population/year. In a generalized linear model with time as a fixed effect, mean annual temperature, population, and new construction were associated with regional variations in incidence. Using these variables in a spatiotemporal model, we estimated the adjusted regional variation by county to predict areas where Coccidioides infections might increase.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2021

Material flows and GHG emissions from housing stock evolution in US counties, 2020–60

The evolution of housing stocks determines demand for construction materials and energy, and associated emissions of greenhouse gasses (GHGs). The contribution of construction to building life-cycle emissions is growing as buildings become more energy efficient and the energy supply decarbonizes. A housing stock model is developed for counties in the United States using dynamic vacancy rates which endogenously influence stock out- and inflows. Stocks of three house types and 10 construction cohorts are projected for all contiguous US counties for the period 2020–60. Inflows and outflows of construction materials are then estimated along with GHG emissions associated with material production and construction activities in scenarios defined by stock turnover rates, population share by house type, and floor area characteristics of new houses. The results provide new insights into the drivers of construction-related emissions at local and national levels, and identify opportunities for their reduction. Demolition material flows grow in relation to construction material flows over the analysis period. Increasing the stock turnover rate increases future floor area per person, material requirements, and emissions from construction. Scenarios with reduced floor area and more multifamily homes in new construction have lower floor area growth, material requirements, and emissions from construction.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

NASA NTRS1975

Computer mapping of LANDSAT data for environmental applications

The author has identified the following significant results. Land cover overlays and maps produced from LANDSAT are providing information on existing land use and resources throughout the 208 study area. The overlays are being used to delineate drainage areas of a predominant land cover type. Information on cover type is also being combined with other pertinent data to develop estimates of sediment and nutrients flows from the drainage area. The LANDSAT inventory of present land cover together with population projects is providing a basis for developing maps of anticipated land use patterns required to evaluate impact on water quality which may result from these patterns. Overlays of forest types were useful for defining wildlife habitat and vegetational resources in the region. LANDSAT data and computer assisted interpretation was found to be a rapid cost effective procedure for inventorying land cover on a regional basis. The entire 208 inventory which include acquisition of ground truth, LANDSAT tapes, computer processing, and production of overlays and coded tapes was completed within a period of 2 months at a cost of about 0.6 cents per acre, a significant improvement in time and cost over conventional photointerpretation and mapping techniques.

Rogers, R. H.↗

NASA NTRS1991

X-ray emission from starburst galaxies

The results are reported of an investigation of X-ray emission from a sample of 53 IRAS-selected candidate starburst galaxies. Superposed soft and hard X-ray emission from these galaxies in the Einstein-IPC and HEAO-1 A-2 and A-4 energy bands, which span 0.5 to 160 keV, is detected at the 99.6 percent confidence level, after allowing for confusion noise in the HEAO-1 data. Above 15 keV the confidence level is 97 percent. The combined spectrum is flat, with a (photon) power-law index of 1.0 +/- 0.3. The contribution of the population of sources represented by this sample to the 3-50 keV residual cosmic X-ray background is estimated to be at least about 4 percent assuming no evolution. Moderate evolution, for which there is some observational evidence, increases this fractional contribution to about 26 percent.

Rephaeli, Yoel↗

NASA NTRS1994

Radio continuum and far-infrared observations of low surface brightness galaxies

We present Very Large Array (VLA) radio continuum and Infrared Astronomy Satellite (IRAS) far-infrared (FIR) observations of 16 low luminosity galaxies of mostly low surface brightness. All galaxies had previously claimed single dish radio continuum detections. However, at the frequencies of our observations (1.49 and 8.48 GHz), we find significant radio emission for two objects only. We show that the other previously claimed detections are due to confusion with physically unrelated background sources. This implies a low radio continuum detection rate for these galaxies. Re-reduced IRAS scans yield significant far-infrared flux densities in at least one IRAS band for 6 of the 16 galaxies. These, together with the FIR and radio continuum upper limits, are consistent with the well established radio/FIR relation, where most of our galaxies populate the low-luminosity end. From the radio continuum and FIR flux densities and their upper limits we estimate the current star formation rates and demonstrate that the galaxies are currently passive in forming stars, in agreement with previous optical investigations. There is an indication that the galaxies were forming stars more intensively averaged over their lifetime than they are presently.

Hoeppe, G.↗

NASA NTRS2001

Space Debris Modeling at NASA

Since the Second European Conference on Space Debris in 1997, the Orbital Debris Program Office at the NASA Johnson Space Center has undertaken a major effort to update and improve the principal software tools employed to model the space debris environment and to evaluate mission risks. NASA's orbital debris engineering model, ORDEM, represents the current and near-term Earth orbital debris population from the largest spacecraft to the smallest debris in a manner which permits spacecraft engineers and experimenters to estimate the frequency and velocity with which a satellite may be struck by debris of different sizes. Using expanded databases and a new program design, ORDEM2000 provides a more accurate environment definition combined with a much broader array of output products in comparison with its predecessor, ORDEM96. Studies of the potential long-term space debris environment are now conducted with EVOLVE 4.0, which incorporates significant advances in debris characterization and breakup modeling. An adjunct to EVOLVE 4.0, GEO EVOLVE has been created to examine debris issues near the geosynchronous orbital regime. In support of NASA Safety Standard 1740.14, which establishes debris mitigation guidelines for all NASA space programs, a set of evaluation tools called the Debris Assessment Software (DAS) is specifically designed for program offices to determine whether they are in compliance with NASA debris mitigation guidelines. DAS 1.5 has recently been released with improved WINDOWS compatibility and graphics functions. DAS 2.0 will incorporate guideline changes in a forthcoming revision to NASA Safety Standard 1740.14. Whereas DAS contains a simplified model to calculate possible risks associated with satellite reentries, NASA's higher fidelity Object Reentry Survival Analysis Tool (ORSAT) has been upgraded to Version 5.0. With the growing awareness of the potential risks posed by uncontrolled satellite reentries to people and property on Earth, the application of both DAS and ORSAT has increased markedly in the past two years.

Johnson, Nicholas L.↗

NASA NTRS2011

Small Orbital Debris Mitigation Mission Architecture

Small orbital debris in LEO (1-10 cm in size) presents a clear and present danger to operational LEO spacecraft. This debris field has dramatically increased (nearly doubled) in recent years following the Chinese ASAT Test in 2007 and the Iridium/Cosmos collision in 2009. Estimates of the number of small debris have grown to 500,000 objects after these two events; previously the population was 300,000 objects. These small, untracked debris objects (appproximately 500,000) outnumber the larger and tracked objects (appproximately 20,000) by a factor 25 to 1. Therefore, the risk of the small untracked debris objects to operational spacecraft is much greater than the risk posed by the larger and tracked LEO debris objects. A recent study by The Aerospace Corporation found that the debris environment will increase the costs of maintaining a constellation of government satellites by 5%, a constellation of large commercial satellites by 11%, and a constellation of factory built satellites by 26% from $7.6 billion to $9.57 billion. Based upon these facts, the NASA Marshall Space Flight Center (MSFC) Advanced Concepts Office (ACO) performed an architecture study on Small Orbital Debris Active Removal (SODAR) using a space-based nonweapons- class laser satellite for LEO debris removal. The goal of the SODAR study was to determine the ability of a space-based laser system to remove the most pieces of debris (1 cm to 10 cm, locations unknown), in the shortest amount of time, with the fewest number of spacecraft. The ESA developed MASTER2005 orbital debris model was used to probabilistically classify the future debris environment including impact velocity, magnitude, and directionality. The study ground rules and assumptions placed the spacecraft into a high inclination Low Earth Orbit at 800 km as an initial reference point. The architecture study results found that a spacecraft with an integrated forward-firing laser is capable of reducing the small orbital debris flux within a 60 to 100 km orbital shell by a significant amount within the one spacecraft's operational lifetime. The technology developments required for such an architecture to be successfully employed are: 1) A pico-pulsed, space qualified laser and 2) The ability to detect and track a small LEO small debris object from a space based platform. Therefore, a conceptual design for a demonstration satellite to showcase the ability to detect and track small orbital debris was completed

Wiegmann, Bruce M.↗

NASA NTRS2019

Operational and Technical Updates to the Object Reentry Survival Analysis Tool

The Object Reentry Survival Analysis Tool (ORSAT) has been used in the NASA Orbital Debris Program Office for over 25 years to estimate risk due to uncontrolled reentry of spacecraft and rocket bodies. Development over the last 3 years has included: a major change to the treatment of carbon fiber- and glass fiber-reinforced plastics (CFRP and GFRP, respectively); an updated atmospheric model; a new model for computing casualty area around an impacting debris object; and a newly-implemented scheme to determine the breakup altitude of a reentry object. Software also was written to automatically perform parameter sweeps in ORSAT to allow for uncertainty quantification and sensitivity analysis for components with borderline demisability. These updates have improved the speed and fidelity of the reentry analysis performed using ORSAT, and have allowed for improved engineering understanding by estimating the uncertainty for each component’s survivability. A statistical model for initial conditions captures the latitude bias in population density, a large improvement over the previous inclination-based latitude-averaged models. A sample spacecraft has been analyzed with standard techniques using ORSAT 6.2.1 and again using all the updated models; we will demonstrate the variation in the total debris casualty area and overall expectation of casualty.

Ostrom, C.↗

NASA NTRS2019

Multi-Agency Annual Southeastern Beach Mouse Habitat Occupancy Monitoring

The southeastern beach mouse (Peromyscus polionotus niveiventris, hereafter SEBM), a federally threatened species was identified by Merritt Island National Wildlife Refuge (MINWR) as one of the top five priorities for management. The Kennedy Space Center (KSC) Environmental Management Branch was asked to provide support in the form of population monitoring for SEBM on KSC and the surrounding properties. When we began the project, the SEBM was known to occupy sites ranging from Volusia through Brevard and Indian River Counties, but the exact distribution within the Federal lands encompassing the Cape Canaveral Barrier Island Complex (CCBIC) was not well known. The broad range of habitat conditions encompassing the species’ historical range and the diversity of sites historically known to contain SEBM required a landscape-scale approach for both monitoring the population and for investigating species habitat relationships. We designed a monitoring plan for the SEBM with the goal of estimating the habitat occupancy of beach mice annually each winter/spring throughout the entire area of suitable coastal habitat (approximately 72 km linear distance along the beach). Methods were tested in a 2008 pilot study, and during 2010-2018 we monitored the proportion of coastal habitat occupied by the SEBM on the CCBIC. Monitoring was focused on using dynamic habitat occupancy surveys with data collected with rapid assessment techniques (i.e., track tubes or live-traps) to detect SEBM occurrence at sampling stations. An important component of the study design was the use of repeated samples that provided the information needed to estimate detectability. Measuring detectability was required to account for the fact that surveys could fail to detect animals at sites at which they were actually present (Mackenzie et al., 2002). This monitoring framework is very flexible, allowing numerous hypothesis to be tested about how various factors influence beach mouse occupancy using habitat, geographic, and environmental covariates. Our survey has been the longest survey conducted for any of the seven extant beach mouse subspecies and has encompassed nearly the entire remaining range of the SEBM. Although occupancy surveys of other beach mouse subspecies via track tubes have been conducted on the Gulf coast of Florida by Florida Fish and Wildlife Conservation Commission (FWC), United States Fish and Wildlife Service (USFWS), and various universities, we expanded previous methods to fit unique aspects of the SEBM, and thus our study was very different from any of the previous studies. To achieve this specificity, we employed an adaptive approach throughout the study, with all activities aimed at providing managers with information related to environmental compliance and natural resource management on KSC and the surrounding Federal lands.

Eric Douglas Stolen↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Wichita Climate: Using Satellite Data to Identify Neighborhoods Vulnerable to Extreme Heat for Equitable Climate Mitigation and Planning

Wichita, Kansas is facing a host of climate threats, one being extreme heat that is manifested through the urban heat island (UHI) effect. The uneven distribution of heat risk in Wichita across socioeconomic status is an environmental justice issue. We worked with the City of Wichita to map heat exposure, tree canopy, and heat risk in order to support the City's climate resilience initiatives. To visualize heat exposure, we quantified and mapped average summer heat from 2013–2021 using Landsat 8 Operational Land Imager (OLI) and Thermal Infrared Sensor (TIRS) Land Surface Temperature (LST) and Aqua Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) night-time LST. To understand tree canopy cover gaps, we created a tree canopy map using 2021 PlanetScope imagery, which identified 20% more trees than the US Geological Survey’s (USGS) National Land Cover Database (NLCD) tree canopy coverage estimates for Wichita. To characterize high risk areas, we used socioeconomic census data and existing social vulnerability indices, highlighting populations that were exposed and vulnerable to extreme heat. The spatial analyses demonstrated that heat exposure is concentrated in the city center and southwest Wichita, areas that are also low in tree canopy coverage. The three census block groups and 17 census tracts with the highest heat risk primarily circle the city center, in areas home to more socially vulnerable populations and near enough to the dense urban center to feel significant urban heat island effects.

Brooke Laird↗

NASA NTRS2022

Wichita Climate: Using Satellite Data to Identify Neighborhoods Vulnerable to Extreme Heat for Equitable Climate Mitigation and Planning

Brooke Laird↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Electromagnetic Modeling of Wind tunnel Magnetic Suspension and Balance Systems

An analytical framework for the open-loop behavior of a permanent magnet element levitated within an applied magnetic field are shown, in the context of application to wind tunnel Magnetic Suspension and Balance Systems (MSBS). Various modes of motion are identified, which correlate with observed behavior of the NASA/ODU 6-inch MSBS. This system is being developed as a technology demonstrator for dynamic stability testing of atmospheric entry capsules, with possible application to a supersonic wind tunnel. The analytic equations are populated with field information from experimental measurements and a finite element model. Finally, a system simulation can provide alternative estimates of system dynamic behavior via model linearization, with preliminary comparisons presented. Taken together, the analytical framework, experimental measurement, finite element analysis, and dynamic simulation provide a complete understanding of the characteristics and behavior of the MSBS.

magnetic suspension↗

DOE OSTI2020

Considerations for Long-Term Load Forecasting in Morocco

There are many factors that determine how demand for electricity may change over time. These factors include GDP, population size, and technology diffusion and adoption. We employ a simple extrapolation of current trends in Morocco GDP to estimate how the peak demand and annual consumption may change through the year 2030. We discuss the many factors that this approach does not take into account (such as adoption of air conditioning, electric vehicles, and distributed generation).

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2025

Predictions for the Detectability of Milky Way Satellite Galaxies and Outer-Halo Star Clusters with the Vera C. Rubin Observatory

We predict the sensitivity of the Vera C. Rubin Observatory Legacy Survey of Space and Time (LSST) to faint, resolved Milky Way satellite galaxies and outer-halo star clusters. We characterize the expected sensitivity using simulated LSST data from the LSST Dark Energy Science Collaboration (DESC) Data Challenge 2 (DC2) accessed and analyzed with the Rubin Science Platform as part of the Rubin Early Science Program. We simulate resolved stellar populations of Milky Way satellite galaxies and outer-halo star clusters over a wide range of sizes, luminosities, and heliocentric distances, which are broadly consistent with expectations for the Milky Way satellite system. We inject simulated stars into the DC2 catalog with realistic photometric uncertainties and star/galaxy separation derived from the DC2 data itself. We assess the probability that each simulated system would be detected by LSST using a conventional isochrone matched-filter technique. We find that assuming perfect star/galaxy separation enables the detection of resolved stellar systems with $M_V$ = 0 mag and $r_{1/2}$ = 10 pc with >50% efficiency out to a heliocentric distance of ~250 kpc. Similar detection efficiency is possible with a simple star/galaxy separation criterion based on measured quantities, although the false positive rate is higher due to leakage of background galaxies into the stellar sample. When assuming perfect star/galaxy classification and a model for the galaxy-halo connection fit to current data, we predict that 89 +/- 20 Milky Way satellite galaxies will be detectable with a simple matched-filter algorithm applied to the LSST wide-fast-deep data set. Different assumptions about the performance of star/galaxy classification efficiency can decrease this estimate by ~7%-25%, which emphasizes the importance of high-quality star/galaxy separation for studies of the Milky Way satellite population with LSST.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2020

A framework for measuring weak-lensing magnification using the Fundamental Plane

ABSTRACT Galaxy–galaxy lensing is an essential tool for probing dark matter haloes and constraining cosmological parameters. While galaxy–galaxy lensing measurements usually rely on shear, weak-lensing magnification contains additional constraining information. Using the Fundamental Plane (FP) of elliptical galaxies to anchor the size distribution of a background population is one method that has been proposed for performing a magnification measurement. We present a formalism for using the FP residuals of elliptical galaxies to jointly estimate the foreground mass and background redshift errors for a stacked lens scenario. The FP residuals include information about weak-lensing magnification κ, and therefore foreground mass, since to first order, non-zero κ affects galaxy size but not other FP properties. We also present a modular, extensible code that implements the formalism using emulated galaxy catalogues of a photometric galaxy survey. We find that combining FP information with observed number counts of the source galaxies constrains mass and photo-z error parameters significantly better than an estimator that includes number counts only. In particular, the constraint on the mass is 17.0 per cent if FP residuals are included, as opposed to 27.7 per cent when only number counts are included. The effective size noise for a foreground lens of mass $M_\mathrm{ H}=10^{14}\, \mathrm{M}_\odot$, with a conservative selection function in size and surface brightness applied to the source population, is σκ, eff = 0.250. We discuss the improvements to our FP model necessary to make this formalism a practical companion to shear analyses in weak-lensing surveys.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗