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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS2004

Document Concurrence System

The Document Concurrence System is a combination of software modules for routing users expressions of concurrence with documents. This system enables determination of the current status of concurrences and eliminates the need for the prior practice of manually delivering paper documents to all persons whose approvals were required. This system runs on a server, and participants gain access via personal computers equipped with Web-browser and electronic-mail software. A user can begin a concurrence routing process by logging onto an administration module, naming the approvers and stating the sequence for routing among them, and attaching documents. The server then sends a message to the first person on the list. Upon concurrence by the first person, the system sends a message to the second person, and so forth. A person on the list indicates approval, places the documents on hold, or indicates disapproval, via a Web-based module. When the last person on the list has concurred, a message is sent to the initiator, who can then finalize the process through the administration module. A background process running on the server identifies concurrence processes that are overdue and sends reminders to the appropriate persons.

Muhsin, Mansour↗
DOE OSTI2023

Review of particle deposition to and removal from clothing, skin, and hair after a radioactive airborne dispersal event

Explosive Radiological Dispersal Devices (RDD) – aka dirty bombs – are seen as a credible method to carry out a radiological terror attack. After exploding a radioactive source, the radionuclide-laden plume will be blown downwind of ground zero, with particles falling out and potentially depositing on people caught in and under the cloud. Some of these people may not show any sign of radiation sickness and therefore not realize they have been contaminated and may take the radioactive particulate with them on their daily activities, thus spreading the radioactive particulate outside the initially contaminated area. This paper reviews the scientific literature to better understand the rate at which particulate deposits on and is removed from the different “surfaces” of a person, i.e., hair, skin, and clothing. Prior research indicates that: 1) particle deposition is usually higher on skin than on hair and clothing; 2) particle deposition is greater for a person with higher skin moisture, 3) stronger wind increases the deposition flux onto a person, and 4) the fraction of particulate deposited on the hair, skin, and clothing respectively depends on the length of the hair, assuming all the hair surface is available for deposition. The studies taken into consideration show that the largest uncertainty in particulate deposition onto a person is due to clothing type because of the different possible weave arrangements and tightness which translate into differences in actual surface area and surface roughness. A factor of 2-to-20 variation in deposition rate was found. Removal of the particulate from the contaminated person may be due to wind, a person's movement, and/or contact transfer, i.e., by touching a different clean surface. Experiments show that the majority of the particulate is resuspended within 2–6 h mostly depending on the intensity of physical activity. The largest uncertainty in particulate removal from skin depends on the skin moisture, transfer rate of single-contact, and how many objects/people a person touches per hour. No data for hair were found for particle removal and resuspension. The studies considered did not utilize radionuclides directly; however, data on adhesion of radioactive vs. their non-radioactive counterpart have shown that the uncertainty due to the radioactivity of the particles is lower than that due to other factors. In conclusion, an idealized scenario involving a single building in the path of the cloud showed the impact of building-influenced flow on the cloud transport path and mixing, which affects the radiological dose the downwind population is exposed to and consequently the health effects.

63 RADIATION, THERMAL, AND OTHER ENVIRON. POLLUTAN↗
DOE OSTI2024

Health Care Usage During the COVID-19 Pandemic and the Adoption of Telemedicine: Retrospective Study of Chronic Disease Cohorts

Background: The COVID-19 pandemic accelerated telehealth adoption across disease cohorts of patients. For many patients, routine medical care was no longer an option, and others chose not to visit medical offices in order to minimize COVID-19 exposure. In this study, we take a comprehensive multidisease approach in studying the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on health care usage and the adoption of telemedicine through the first 12 months of the COVID-19 pandemic. Objective: We studied the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on in-person health care usage and telehealth adoption across chronic diseases to understand differences in telehealth adoption across disease cohorts and patient demographics (such as the Social Vulnerability Index [SVI]). Methods: We conducted a retrospective cohort study of 6 different disease cohorts (anxiety: n=67,578; depression: n=45,570; diabetes: n=81,885; kidney failure: n=29,284; heart failure: n=21,152; and cancer: n=35,460). We used summary statistics to characterize changes in usage and regression analysis to study how patient characteristics relate to in-person health care and telehealth adoption and usage during the first 12 months of the pandemic. Results: We observed a reduction in in-person health care usage across disease cohorts (ranging from 10% to 24%). For most diseases we study, telehealth appointments offset the reduction in in-person visits. Furthermore, for anxiety and depression, the increase in telehealth usage exceeds the reduction in in-person visits (by up to 5%). We observed that younger patients and men have higher telehealth usage after accounting for other covariates. Patients from higher SVI areas are less likely to use telehealth; however, if they do, they have a higher number of telehealth visits, after accounting for other covariates. Conclusions: The COVID-19 pandemic affected health care usage across diseases, and the role of telehealth in replacing in-person visits varies by disease cohort. Understanding these differences can inform current practices and provides opportunities to further guide modalities of in-person and telehealth visits. Critically, further study is needed to understand barriers to telehealth service usage for patients in higher SVI areas. A better understanding of the role of social determinants of health may lead to more support for patients and help individual health care providers improve access to care for patients with chronic conditions.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS2014

Biometric Subject Verification Based on Electrocardiographic Signals

A method of authenticating or declining to authenticate an asserted identity of a candidate-person. In an enrollment phase, a reference PQRST heart action graph is provided or constructed from information obtained from a plurality of graphs that resemble each other for a known reference person, using a first graph comparison metric. In a verification phase, a candidate-person asserts his/her identity and presents a plurality of his/her heart cycle graphs. If a sufficient number of the candidate-person's measured graphs resemble each other, a representative composite graph is constructed from the candidate-person's graphs and is compared with a composite reference graph, for the person whose identity is asserted, using a second graph comparison metric. When the second metric value lies in a selected range, the candidate-person's assertion of identity is accepted.

Dusan, Sorin V.↗
DOE OSTI2024

Visual feedback and guided balance training in an immersive virtual reality environment for lower extremity rehabilitation

Balance training is essential for physical rehabilitation procedures, as it can improve functional mobility and enhance cognitive coordination. However, conventional balance training methods may have limitations in terms of motivation, real-time objective feedback, and personalization, which a virtual reality (VR) setup may provide a better alternative. In this work, we present an immersive VR training environment for lower extremity balance rehabilitation with real-time guidance and feedback. The VR training environment immerses the user in a 3D ice rink model where a virtual coach (agent) leads them through a series of balance poses, and the user controls a trainee avatar with their own movements. Here we developed two coaching styles: positive-reinforcement and autonomous-supportive, and two viewpoints of the trainee avatar: first-person and third-person. The proposed environment was evaluated in a user study with healthy, non-clinical participants (n = 16, 24.4 ± 5.7 years old, 9 females). Our results show that participants showed stronger performance in the positive-reinforcement style compared to the autonomous-supportive style. Additionally, in the third-person viewpoint, the participants exhibited more stability in the positive-reinforcement style compared to the autonomous-supportive style. For viewpoint, participants exhibited stronger performance in the first-person viewpoint compared to third-person in the autonomous-supportive style, while they were comparable in the positive-reinforcement style. We observed no significant effects on the foot height and number of mistakes. Furthermore, we report the analysis of user performance with balance training poses and subjective measures based on questionnaires to assess the user experience, usability, and task load. The proposed VR balance training could offer an interactive, adaptive, and engaging environment and open new potential research directions for lower extremity rehabilitation.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2018

Cyclist exposure to black carbon, ultrafine particles and heavy metals: An experimental study along two commuting routes near Antwerp, Belgium

Highlights: • Wearable UFP and BC instrumentation was carried along whilst cycling 2 different commuting routes. • HR-ICP-MS provided elemental information on railway- and roadside-exposed routes. • Heart rate was tracked simultaneously to estimate the personal inhaled pollutant dose. • The bicycle highway route exhibited 300% lower BC and 20% lower UFP concentrations. • Elemental differences are observed between the considered commuting routes. Urban environments typically exhibit large atmospheric pollution variation, in both space and time. In contrast to traditional monitoring networks suffering from a limited spatial coverage, mobile platforms enable personalized high-resolution monitoring, providing valuable insights into personal atmospheric pollution exposure, and the identification of potential pollution hotspots. This study evaluated personal cyclist exposure to UFPs, BC and heavy metals whilst commuting near Antwerp, Belgium, by performing mobile measurements with wearable black carbon (BC) and ultrafine particle (UFP) instruments. Loaded micro-aethalometer filterstrips were chemically analysed and the inhaled pollutant dose determined from the exhibited heart rate. Considerable spatial pollutant variation was observed along the travelled routes, with distinct contributions from spatial factors (e.g. traffic intersections, urban park and market) and temporary events. On average 300% higher BC, 20% higher UFP and changing elemental concentrations are observed along the road traffic route (RT), when compared to the bicycle highway route (BH). Although the overall background pollution determines a large portion of the experienced personal exposure (in this case 53% for BC and 40% for UFP), cyclists can influence their personal atmospheric pollution exposure, by selecting less exposed commuting routes. Our results, hereby, strengthen the body of evidence in favour of further policy investments in isolated bicycle infrastructure.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Foreword to special issue: Papers from the 63rd annual meeting of the APS Division of Plasma Physics, November 8–12, 2021

The 63rd annual meeting of the APS Division of Plasma Physics (DPP) was held on November 8–12, 2021 in Pittsburgh at the David Lawrence Convention Center with both a live (in person) component and a virtual component. Following guidance from an APS COVID task force, all in-person attendees were fully vaccinated and masked. More than 800 physicists attended, safely, in-person. With both virtual and on-site participants, discussions were lively, and the research presentations showed unmatched mastery in the modern observation, theory, simulation, and manipulation of plasma. The presentations included four invited review talks, 97 invited talks, four tutorials, and four presentations from this year's prize and award recipients. There were more than 1200 contributed poster presentations and 725 contributed oral presentations. Including both in-person and remote attendees, DPP 2021 had a record of 2232 participants. As a hybrid meeting, in-person presentations of all invited presentations were broadcast live and were accompanied by a Q&A discussion. Contributed oral and poster presentations were prerecorded along with options to schedule in-person discussions on demand. Five mini-conferences were held: “Gatekeeper Workshop: Creating a Diverse, Equitable, and Inclusive Pipeline,” “Collisionless Shocks in Laboratory and Space Plasmas,” “The High Repetition Rate Frontier in High-Energy-Density Physics,” “Measuring and Modeling Plasma Surface Interactions,” and “The Second Mini-Conference on Machine Learning, Data Science and Artificial Intelligence in Plasma Research.” Finally, on the day before the official start of the meeting, an afternoon “for students, by students” included lightning talks, plasma trivia, and an informal occasion to connect with other students, learn how to get the most from the DPP Annual Meeting, and share successful ways to connect with colleagues and advance their professional careers.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
DOE OSTI2025

The CanBikeCO Full Pilot: Long-Term Results and Analysis From an E-Bike Program in Colorado, USA

Personal micromobility devices like bicycles, e-bikes, and scooters are low- or zero-energy alternatives to single-occupancy vehicles. However, a lack of data has led to a dearth of data-driven research on personally owned e-bike usage. We present longitudinal findings from the CanBikeCO program, focused on e-bike adoption and use across demographics, trip characteristics, and geographies in the state of Colorado. CanBikeCO recorded travel survey data from low-income individuals provided with personal e-bikes by the Colorado Energy Office in six communities across Colorado from July 2021 to December 2022. The data were collected using a custom instance of the National Renewable Energy Laboratory OpenPATH platform, which combines passive data collection with semantic information such as trip mode and purpose labels. To our knowledge, there are no prior travel survey data on personally owned e-bikes with this range and scope. Insights from this unique dataset include: (i) work trips were 17% more likely than average trips to be taken on an e-bike, (ii) e-bikes were most often reported to replace cars (34% of e-bike trips) and other personal micromobility devices (22%), and (iii) participants favored walking for trips less than 1 mile, e-bikes for trips of 1-3 miles, and e-bikes, cars, or shared rides for trips of 3-20 miles. The data used to generate these results have been made available in the Transportation Secure Data Center. We find e-bike use is appealing across age groups and may be related to characteristics of land use, urban form, occupation, income, and car ownership. We conclude for this population that the energy demand added by e-bike use (induced demand and replacing non-motorized modes) is outweighed by the reduction in energy demand from replacement of single-occupancy vehicle trips with e-bike trips. Our findings suggest considerable potential for energy savings from personal e-bike ownership.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
DOE OSTI2023

Evaluation of Serial Testing After Exposure to COVID-19 in Early Care and Education Facilities, Illinois, March–May 2022

Objective: To understand SARS-CoV-2 transmission in early care and education (ECE) settings, we implemented a Test to Stay (TTS) strategy, which allowed children and staff who were close contacts to COVID-19 to remain in person if they agreed to test twice after exposure. We describe SARS-CoV-2 transmission, testing preferences, and the number of in-person days saved among participating ECE facilities. Methods: From March 21 through May 27, 2022, 32 ECE facilities in Illinois implemented TTS. Unvaccinated children and staff who were not up to date with COVID-19 vaccination could participate if exposed to COVID-19. Participants received 2 tests within 7 days after exposure and were given the option to test at home or at the ECE facility. Results: During the study period, 331 TTS participants were exposed to index cases (defined as people attending the ECE facility with a positive SARS-CoV-2 test result during the infectious period); 14 participants tested positive, resulting in a secondary attack rate of 4.2%. No tertiary cases (defined as a person with a positive SARS-CoV-2 test result within 10 days after exposure to a secondary case) occurred in the ECE facilities. Most participants (366 of 383; 95.6%) chose to test at home. Remaining in-person after an exposure to COVID-19 saved approximately 1915 in-person days among children and staff and approximately 1870 parent workdays. Conclusion: SARS-CoV-2 transmission rates were low in ECE facilities during the study period. Serial testing after COVID-19 exposure among children and staff at ECE facilities is a valuable strategy to allow children to remain in person and parents to avoid missing workdays.

Public, Environmental & Occupational Health↗
NASA NTRS2004

Two-Finger EKG Method of Detecting Evasive Responses

A system based on acquisition and processing of electrocardiographic (EKG) signals from two fingers has been proposed as a means of determining whether a person is answering questions evasively. The system -- in effect, a "lie detector" of sorts, would be used to gauge prospective passengers responses to questions at airport security checkpoints. The person to be interrogated would be required to put one finger from each hand onto two metal strips on a counter and would be instructed to relax and wait for the system to indicate that it is ready. Then a security person would ask the passenger a set of standard security questions. EKG signals acquired through contact with the fingers would be processed by an algorithm that would extract a single-value measure of the level of stress in the interrogated person. This measure would be used to determine whether the system should display a green or a red light to signify that the person is or is not, respectively, telling the truth. It has also been conjectured that the system may be useful for communicating with a person who is in a coma and, hence, unable to speak.

Oldham, Daniel↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Compass Concurrent Engineering Lessons Learned in Remote and Hybrid Environments

The Compass Team at NASA’s Glenn Research Center (GRC) is a concurrent engineering team which specializes in conceptual spacecraft mission designs. Detailed descriptions of the team, its history, and its operating model can be found in [1] and [2]. During the COVID-19 pandemic, the team was required to move to remote (virtual) operation from their in-person model for approximately 22 months. As the restrictions began to lift and team members were able to return in-person to the Compass Lab, the team moved into a hybrid mode of operation, with some participants still tying in remotely some or all of the time. This paper discusses many of the lessons learned from these experiences, highlighting improvements, outstanding challenges and the tools and methodologies used to address both. Throughout this discussion the terms “in-person”, “hybrid”, “virtual” and “remote” will be used. For the purposes of this paper, “in-person” will be understood to mean when team members are interacting simultaneously, physically within the Compass Lab. “Remote” or “virtual” will refer to when interactions are happening between people who are not co-located using only technology to interface. “Hybrid” will refer to when two or more participants are physically located in the Compass Lab and one or more participant(s) is participating remotely. Media richness is described as “a medium’s ability to communicate effectively based of four factors. They are the capacity for immediate feedback, the number of cues and channels it utilizes, the degree of personalization it affords, and its ability to communicate using natural language” [3]. This theory will be referenced and discussed in multiple of the following sections due to its relevance when choosing how to operate in remote and hybrid modes, as well as in making tool selections. The key to selecting the best mode of communication lays in how complicated the discussion is and the level of ambiguity involved. Not all conversations or interactions require media rich mediums. For example, providing information about which there is little to no ambiguity can easily be done in less rich methods - such as email. A conversation including high levels of ambiguity and/or complex information is better suited to a richer medium, such as in-person or a video call with shared screens.

Concurrent Engineering↗
DOE OSTI2024

Freewheeling: What Six Locations, 61,000 Trips, and 242,000 Miles in Colorado Reveal about How E-Bikes Improve Mobility Options

Personal micromobility modes such as bicycles, e-bikes and scooters offer low- or zero-emission transportation alternatives to single occupancy vehicles (SOVs). However, the lack of supporting data has led to a dearth of data-driven research on the usage of personally owned e-bikes, including variations due to weather, geography and demographics. In this paper, we present an overview of the longitudinal findings from the CanBikeCO program, focused on e-bike adoption and use rates across different demographics, trip characteristics, and geographies. The CanBikeCO program recorded travel survey data from late July 2021 to December 31, 2022, from low-income Colorado households who were provided with e-bikes for personal use by the Colorado Energy Office (CEO). This data was collected in six different communities across Colorado following the mini-pilot program that was conducted in Fall 2020. To collect data for the survey, the program used the NREL OpenPATH application, which combines passive data collection with semantic information such as trip mode and purpose labels. To the best of our knowledge, there is no prior travel survey data on personally owned e-bikes with this range and scope. This unique dataset yielded several insights. One is that commute trips among participants had nearly 17% higher shares of e-bikes than all trips combined. E-bikes were stated to most often replace cars (34% of e-bike trips) and personal micromobility (22%). Participants favored walking for trips less than 1 mile, e-bikes for trips 1-3 miles, and e-bikes, cars or shared rides for trips 3-20 miles. Seasonality accounted for a 10% decrease and subsequent recovery in e-bike mileage on a per user basis. E-bikes are also appealing across age groups, even among older individuals, and see decreased utilization similar to regular bikes or walking during winter months. We also find that e-bike use may be related to characteristics of land use and urban form, occupation and income as well as household car ownership. We conclude that, for this population, who are mainly part of low-income households, the emissions added by the use of e-bikes (in the case of replacement of non-motorized modes) are outweighed by the strong single occupancy vehicle (SOV) travel replacement. As a whole, our findings suggest a considerable potential for energy savings and emissions reductions from personal e-bike ownership.

ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS↗
DOE OSTI2019

Assessing the Dynamics and Complexity of Disease Pathogenicity Using 4-Dimensional Immunological Data

Investigating disease pathogenesis and personalized prognostics are major biomedical needs. Because patients sharing the same diagnosis can experience different outcomes, such as survival or death, physicians need new personalized tools, including those that rapidly differentiate several inflammatory phases. To address these topics, a pattern recognition-based method (PRM) that follows an inverse problem approach was designed to assess, in <10 min, eight concepts: synergy , pleiotropy , complexity , dynamics , ambiguity , circularity , personalized outcomes , and explanatory prognostics (pathogenesis). By creating thousands of secondary combinations derived from blood leukocyte data, the PRM measures synergic, pleiotropic, complex and dynamic data interactions, which provide personalized prognostics while some undesirable features—such as false results and the ambiguity associated with data circularity-are prevented. Here, this method is compared to Principal Component Analysis (PCA) and evaluated with data collected from hantavirus-infected humans and birds that appeared to be healthy. When human data were examined, the PRM predicted 96.9 % of all surviving patients while PCA did not distinguish outcomes. Demonstrating applications in personalized prognosis, eight PRM data structures sufficed to identify all but one of the survivors. Dynamic data patterns also distinguished survivors from non-survivors, as well as one subset of non-survivors, which exhibited chronic inflammation. When the PRM explored avian data, it differentiated immune profiles consistent with no, early, or late inflammation. Yet, PCA did not recognize patterns in avian data. Findings support the notion that immune responses, while variable, are rather deterministic: a low number of complex and dynamic data combinations may be enough to, rapidly, unmask conditions that are neither directly observable nor reliably forecasted.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

HIV-1 transmitted drug resistance surveillance: shifting trends in study design and prevalence estimates

HIV-1 transmitted drug resistance (TDR) prevalence increased during the initial years of the antiretroviral therapy (ART) global scale-up. Few studies have examined recent trends in TDR prevalence using published genetic sequences and described the characteristics of ART-naïve persons from whom these published sequences have been obtained. We identified 125 studies published between 2014 and 2019 for which HIV-1 reverse transcriptase (RT) with or without protease from ≥50 ART-naïve adult persons were submitted to the GenBank sequence database. The population characteristics and TDR prevalence were compared to those in 122 studies published in the preceding five years between 2009 and 2013. TDR prevalence was analysed using median study-level and person-level data. The 2009 to 2013 and 2014 to 2019 studies reported sequence data from 32,866 and 41,724 ART-naïve persons respectively. Studies from the low- and middle-income country (LMIC) regions in sub-Saharan Africa, South/Southeast Asia and Latin America/Caribbean accounted for approximately two-thirds of the studies during each period. Between the two periods, the proportion of studies from sub-Saharan Africa and from South/Southeast Asia countries other than China decreased from 43% to 32% and the proportion of studies performed at sentinel sites for recent HIV-1 infection decreased from 33% to 22%. Between 2014 and 2019, median study-level TDR prevalence was 4.1% in South/Southeast Asia, 6.0% in sub-Saharan Africa, 9.1% in Latin America/Caribbean, 8.5% in Europe and 14.2% in North America. In the person-level analysis, there was an increase in overall, NNRTI and two-class NRTI/NNRTI resistance in sub-Saharan Africa; an increase in NNRTI resistance in Latin America/Caribbean, and an increase in overall, NNRTI and PI resistance in North America. Overall, NNRTI and dual NRTI/NNRTI-associated TDR prevalence was significantly higher in sub-Saharan Africa studies published between 2014 and 2019 compared with those published between 2009 and 2013. The decreasing proportion of studies from the hardest hit LMIC regions and the shift away from sentinel sites for recent infection suggests that global TDR surveillance efforts and publication of findings require renewed emphasis.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2018

Filters from taxis air conditioning system: A tool to characterize driver's occupational exposure to bioburden?

Highlights: • Filters from air conditioning system are a suitable method to characterize bioburden in vehicles. • Fungi and bacteria occur widely in taxis and personal vehicles. • The genera Aspergillus, Cladosporium and Penicillium were often detected. • Filters should be more frequently replaced to avoid bioburden proliferation and reaerosolization. • Culture based and molecular methods used in parallel enabled an improved risk characterization. Bioburden proliferation in filters from air conditioning systems of taxis represents a possible source of occupational exposure. The aim of this study was to determine the occurrence of fungi and bacteria in filters from the air conditioning system of taxis used for patient transportation and to assess the exposure of drivers to bioburden. Filters from the air conditioning systems of 19 taxis and 28 personal vehicles (used as controls) operating in three Portuguese cities including the capital Lisbon, were collected during the winter season. The occurrence and significance of bioburden detected in the different vehicles are reported and discussed in terms of colony-forming units (CFU) per 1 m{sup 2} of filter area and by the identification of the most frequently detected fungal isolates based on morphology. Azole-resistant mycobiota, fungal biomass, and molecular detection of Aspergillus species/strains were also determined. Bacterial growth was more prevalent in taxis (63.2%) than in personal vehicles (26.3%), whereas fungal growth was more prevalent in personal vehicles (53.6%) than in taxis (21.1–31.6%). Seven different azole-resistant species were identified in this study in 42.1% taxi filters. Levels of fungal biomass were above the detection limit in 63% taxi filters and in 75% personal vehicle filters. No toxigenic species were detected by molecular analysis in the assessed filters. The results obtained show that bioburden proliferation occurs widely in filters from the air conditioning systems of taxis, including the proliferation of azole-resistant fungal species, suggesting that filters should be replaced more frequently. The use of culture based-methods and molecular tools combined enabled an improved risk characterization in this setting.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2026

Probabilistic inference in very large universes

Our current favored cosmological theories allow for the striking and controversial possibility that the observable universe is just a small part of a much larger universe in which parameters that describe the effective, low-energy laws of physics vary from one region to another. The controversy is largely driven by the fact that such a “very large universe” is mostly observationally inaccessible to us, so the issue arises of how we can reasonably assess a theory that describes such a universe. In this paper, we propose a Bayesian method for theory assessment based on theory-generated probability distributions for our observations. We focus on the principles that define this method, leaving aside concerns about how, in practice, one would carry out the required calculations. (One important issue that we set aside is the measure problem.) We argue that cosmological theories can be tested by the standard method of Bayesian updating, but we need to use theoretical predictions for “first-person” probabilities—that is, probabilities that we should use for our observations, taking into account all relevant selection effects. These selection effects can vary from one observer to another and can vary with time, so, in principle, first-person probabilities are defined for each observer instant—an observer at a specific instant of time. Calculations of first-person probabilities should take into account everything that the observer believes about herself and her surroundings, which we refer to as her subjective state. If the universe is very large, a theory might predict that there are many observer instants in the same subjective state; we argue that first-person probabilities should be calculated using a principle of self-locating indifference (PSLI), the assumption that any real observer should make predictions for her future as if she were chosen randomly and uniformly from the theoretically predicted observer instants that share her subjective state. We believe the PSLI is intuitively very reasonable, but we also argue that, if the theory is correct, the use of this principle maximizes the expected fraction of observers who will make correct predictions. A further complication is that cosmological theories are not expected to fully predict the detailed properties of the universe, but rather will predict a set of possible universes, each with a probability. Different possible universes will generically have different numbers of observers. We argue that, in the calculation of first-person probabilities, the probability for each possible universe should be weighted by the number of observer instants in the specified subjective state that it contains. These issues have been controversial in the literature, so we also provide a rebuttal to the claim that principles like the PSLI involve a “selection fallacy”; a rebuttal to what we dub the principle of required certainty; an argument rejecting theories that predict a preponderance of Boltzmann brains; a rebuttal to a parable about humans and Jovians used by Hartle and Srednicki to argue that assumptions of typicality can lead to absurd consequences; and, finally, a discussion about how the use of “old evidence” can be fit into a Bayesian mold.

Azhar, Feraz [University of Notre Dame, IN (United↗
DOE OSTI2016

SU-F-T-72: Experimental Determination of the Positionuncertainties for ROOS Ionization Chambers in Clinical Electron Beams

Purpose: National and international dosimetry protocols assume a position accuracy for ionization chambers of less than 0.2mm. To follow this precept the manufacturer PTW-Freiburg introduced a positioning assistance system (TRUFIX) for their particular ion chambers. Aim of this study is an experimental investigation of the positioning uncertainties for ROOS-type ionization chambers. Methods: For all measurements a linear accelerator Elekta Synergie was used. The experiments were performed in a water-phantom. To collimate the electron beam a 10×10cm{sup 2} applicator was installed. All measured depth dose curves were normalized to their maximum. In all cases the TRUFIX system was applied for chamber positioning. For the first measurement series, to determine the positioning reproducibility of a ROOS chamber, one person placed the chamber three times in a 6 MeV electron beam. The mean value of this three measurements was the reference for further six random persons who repeated this procedure. The results were compared for different depths (R{sub 50}, z{sub ref} and R{sub p}). To investigate the impact of different individual chambers of the same type 10 different ROOS chambers were placed by the same person in a 6, 12 and 18MeV electron beam and the measured reference depths z{sub ref} were compared. Results: The absolute positioning reproducibility is less than 0.1mm for the same person. The positioning uncertainties are increasing up to +/−0.3mm if different persons perform the chamber’s positioning within the water phantom. The comparison of the 10 different ROOS chambers resulted in reference depths z{sub ref} with deviations in the range of +/−0.45mm for all energies. Conclusion: The position accuracy of 0.2mm can be fulfilled with the TRUFIX system. The comparison of the 10 different ROOS ionization chambers showed noticeable deviations in the determined reference depth. The impact of a positioning uncertainty of about 0.3–0.4mm on the total perturbation correction will be considered.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗
DOE OSTI2020

Children, Income, and the Impact of Home Delivery on Household Shopping Trips

Expanding e-commerce and delivery benefit consumers through increased flexibility and convenience. However, there is a potential impact on vehicle miles traveled (VMT) by delivery and personal vehicles, and the resulting energy consumption, air quality, and congestion. Delivery trips could replace personal vehicle trips, but, if not a replacement, could add to (or supplement) shopping-related VMT for a given household. Here, we examined the benefits of e-commerce to consumers and the impact on personal shopping trips, and how these differed across item types, household child status, and income. We found that high-income households and households with children cared relatively more about time saving from deliveries. We found that, on average, deliveries substituted for 12% of vehicle shopping trips, but supplemented personal shopping trips for 9% of purchase deliveries. Underlying these averages were two main types of households: those for whom all deliveries substitute for trips (between 55% and 70% of households) and those for whom all deliveries supplement trips (between 20% and 35% of households). There was significant heterogeneity across households with and without children and with high or low incomes with respect to the use of delivery. Although time savings were more likely to motivate higher-income households and households with children to use delivery, this did not translate through to these households substituting for more of their trips; deliveries of prepared meals for both these categories of household were relatively more likely (15% for households with children, and 12% for higher-income households) to supplement, and not substitute for, personal trips.

99 GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗